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SpaceX moves Starship to launch site, and liftoff could be just days away
- grecy 4y agoThere are marine warnings from April 6th-April 12th. https://twitter.com/Alexphysics13/status/1642028439539425283 https://twitter.com/Alexphysics13/status/1642028439539425283 Also, Elon just said "(Orbital Flight Test) More than days away, but hopefully not many weeks away" https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1642273756289671170 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1642273756289671170
- samhuk 4y ago> "More than days away, but hopefully not many weeks away" I find it amusing how close this sounds to your average run-of-the-mill Early Access steam game. "Next patch will be more than days. And more than weeks. But not more than many weeks! Probably... We hope...I think"
- 93po 4y agoTo be fair any time Elon gives an estimate, people retcon it as a concrete promise and then bitch when things shift less than his competitors' estimates.
- baq 4y agoThis either works and will be a sight to behold or it blows up, which most definitely will be a sight to behold. In any case much to look forward to (though I’m firmly in the ’hope it works’ camp ;))
- ramraj07 4y agoYou do want to blow up (not deliberately though) this thing once though. If no prototype ever blows up before you start going into production, you never know some pieces of information you’d gave gotten from monitoring the failure process.
- kfrzcode 4y agoAlways curious what sort of monitoring is used here, pressure valves, temperature, could we assume there's ultra-high-FPS cameras at every useful vantage point? Would there be any vantage point you could put a camera(or other sensor) that wouldn't get destroyed in a catastrophic unplanned disassembly?
- dotnet00 4y agoProbably not many high FPS cameras, but a large number of the tiles, especially in the most interesting areas probably have lots of temperature and pressure sensors. Similarly probably one regular camera in each tank and similar pressure and temperature sensing. With the engines, IIRC these are refined Raptors which don't have the "christmas tree" of instrumentation, so probably just pressure and temperature in all the key areas.
- bombcar 4y agoThe simplest sensor is the eyeball - "oh shit it exploded, it wasn't supposed to do that" tells you that something somewhere was calculated incorrectly or wasn't planned for. And knowing you have an issue is half the battle.
- Robotbeat 4y agoThey've blown up SO many Starship prototypes now, I can't keep track. It has to be like more than 6, especially if you include MK1, etc. (This isn’t supposed to be a dig at SpaceX… just a factual statement. I find this risk-tolerant approach to be inspiring, actually.)
- skissane 4y agoThey really don't want it to blow up on the launch pad. They've put a lot of work into the ground service equipment, and depending on how bad the damage is, blowing up on the pad could set them back months. It also isn't clear if they will have completely finished all the protections on the launch equipment (cladding, deluge, etc) before this test flight, so blowing up on the pad this time around might actually be worse than if it happened in some future test instead. Once it is well-clear of the pad – blowing up is a lot less bad. But still, ideally they want it to make at as far through the flight plan as possible. If it blows up early in the flight, there's a lot of stuff that happens later they won't even get the chance to test this time around. Sure, they'll get the chance to test it next time around – but that'll be another delay in an already delayed project.
- fijiaarone 4y ago[flagged]
- rlt 4y agoI still think this looks like CGI https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ODY6JWzS8WU&t=702s https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ODY6JWzS8WU&t=702s
- stametseater 4y ago> "I think it looks so ridiculous and impossible, and you can tell it's real because it looks so fake, honestly," Musk said at a press conference Tuesday. "We have way better CGI (computer-generated imagery)" than that.
- flippinburgers 4y agoIt so strongly resembles something seen in a film that I have to agree with you. That being said, I don't doubt it is real.
- dzhiurgis 4y agoWonder why? Extremely stable? High dynamic range? Depth of field? All of the above?
- Danieru 4y agoAs a gamedevs my explanation is it hits the following points: 1. Shiny metal, easy in video games but rare in real life. Metal is usually painted or protected in some way. 2. Large panels. Beginner artists don't know how to represent a sense of scale and often put too large details making the object feel small. Starship is giant, yet has panels which imply it is a toy to the eye. 3. Lots of reflections. Early 3d tried to impress by using lots of ray traced reflections. It helps that reflective surfaces are easier to make look realistic than complex surfaces which requires more accurate lighting. Thus early cgi relied on reflections a bunch. Hence why the famous t Rex scene in Jurassic Park took place in the rain, so they could justify making the t Rex reflective.
- mlindner 4y agoI think some people are having wrong expectations heading in to this. If it explodes 30 seconds after leaving the launch pad it's still a huge success. Anything beyond exploding on the launch site is a success. They have a bunch more vehicles lined up behind this one as failure is highly expected, almost to the point of intention. I'll be legitimately happy if it doesn't explode on the launch pad and at least gets any debris into the ocean instead of on land. This is just the beginning.
- b33j0r 4y agoYou are right, and expecting the first launch of a rocket platform to be anything but a bomb is a little unrealistic. But wouldn’t it be amazing if it did make max Q, then coast, then ORBIT on the first try? It’s never happened before. But imagining the possibility gives my imagination a little bit of awe. Starship would be the first system to run purely on our optimism! ;p
- SyzygistSix 4y agoIt won't go into orbit, just achieve orbital velocity. Going into orbit would require it going over land that they don't want to go over on the initial flight out of a abundance of caution.
- kretaceous 4y agoSorry I'm out of the loop/don't really understand what this is. Why would it blow up?
- capableweb 4y agoIt's a rocket so there is always a non-zero risk of explosion. This one is also a new, not-yet-launched rocket, making it extra non-zero chance of explosion.
- prox 4y agoA rocket is basically a controlled explosion, and when you stop controlling it, explosion is likely.
- capableweb 4y agoAh yes, just like fossil-fueled cars, but on a different scale :)
- sandworm101 4y agoNo. This is external combusion of cryogenic fuels at low pressures. There is no crossover beyond the fact that both involve rapid oxidation.
- QuadmasterXLII 4y agoA gas engine reaches about 1200 psi, a diesel reaches about 2500 psi. Raptor’s combustion chamber sits at 4500 psi. Which is completely nuts, even for a rocket engine. The F1 powering the saturn V only ran at 1000 psi. On the other hand, ANFO, a common low pressure explosive, has a detonation pressure of ~100,000 psi
- sandworm101 4y agoIts and apples and oranges comparison of combustion chambers. For purposes of combustion, the relavant pressure is the exaust of the rocket engine where combusion is complete. The burning gas within an ic engine is, at the point of combusion, at a very higher pressure. The ic equivalent of a rocket combusion chamber would be the blast wave starting at the spark, which then moves through the fuel. This difference become more important when discussing the new tech of pulse detonation rocket engines.
- Yizahi 4y agoThe best thing about Starship test is that Elon will (hopefully) shut up about Twitter and focus on the important things instead of garbage.
- pookah 4y agoTwitter files show that there's a MASSIVE disinformation and censorship industry in the US government. It looks like they use shady NGO's to push government sponsored disinformation and to censor civilians: https://stanfordreview.org/stanfords-dark-hand-in-twitter-censorship/ https://stanfordreview.org/stanfords-dark-hand-in-twitter-ce... https://nypost.com/2023/03/24/malinformation-censors-excuse-to-suppress-inconvenient-truths/ https://nypost.com/2023/03/24/malinformation-censors-excuse-... https://www.wsj.com/articles/white-house-covid-censorship-machine-social-media-facebook-meta-executive-rob-flaherty-free-speech-google-11673203704 https://www.wsj.com/articles/white-house-covid-censorship-ma... That's only garbage if you believe democracy and liberty are garbage.
- waltbosz 4y agodo you suppose that is the real reason Elon bought Twitter? To gain insight into that? it's a bit fun to imagine that is the case. It is reminiscent of the "buy the whole farm" scam discussed in the film "Django Unchained". In which a huge outlandish performance is made with the stated intent to buy one seemingly desirable (in the eyes of the seller) item, but buyer's the real item of interest is disguised as just something that comes as part of the sale.
- MrOwnPut 4y agoHe's stated multiple times he bought it because of freedom of speech. Whether or not he suspected NGOs were involved in the censorship on the governments behalf is uncertain, but the goal of a global communication medium that embraced freedom of speech were his main stated goals.
- waltbosz 4y ago
- cubefox 4y agoIt is both unlikely to either launch or explode. Much more likely is a boring launch abort due to some technical issues, and another try in a few weeks. The opposite of a "sight to behold".
- hirundo 4y agoCandidate measurements of a civilization's distance from the Great Filter: - energy yield of weapons - ratio of their AI's IQ to theirs - cost/mass to orbit TODO: Calibrate after the Great Filter.
- krisoft 4y agoI kinda get the first two, but why the third? How does further improvements on cost/mass to orbit brings us closer to our doom in your opinion?
- wahern 4y agoI interpreted that to mean the opposite: an inability to leave your planet means you have little resilience to planetary-scale destructive events, and no resilience to planetary destruction. Alternatively, we're less likely to identify or recognize an intelligent civilization on a single planet, as opposed to one across multiple planets or systems.
- elihu 4y agoI wonder if being multiplanetary actually makes a civilization more vulnerable rather than less? The thing about nuclear war on Earth is that it's basically unwinnable because of mutually assured destruction, and the threat of nuclear winter. Even if you win, you lose. On the other hand, it might be a lot more possible for a civilization on one planet to win a nuclear war against a civilization on another planet. Same with bioweapons: on Earth it would be stupid to try to use an "enhanced" ebola or COVID or bird flu as a weapon because you'd infect your own people as well as your adversary. But if you're separated by a great distance, that's less of a concern. In a way, the "dark forest" interpretation is too optimistic. The assumption is that one species will always try to destroy another independent alien species if they find one. But I wonder if it's even worse among members of the /same/ species but different cultures that are separated by a great distance.
- hirundo 4y agoBecause additional grams in orbit are equivalent to additional joules of energy released as weaponry, e.g. dropping rocks. I fear that our ability to use space to destroy ourselves will come before we can use it to launch a diaspora.
- midland_trucker 4y agoA thing I find mind-blowing is that if this concept succeeds, that I and everyone reading this will be able to afford to go to low earth orbit on a relatively modest salary within the next ~20 years (conservatively). This feels like quite a difficult reality to internalise given we all grew up seeing only a select few exceptional people, with the stars aligning in their career, be able to do that.
- ledauphin 4y agois this a generally agreed-upon fact? I'm not sure I buy it, but I'm interested to see a defense of it.
- elihu 4y ago> "After it launches, the Super Heavy rocket will fly from SpaceX's Starbase launch site eastward, over the Gulf of Mexico. For this test, the booster will not attempt a landing. After stage separation, the Starship upper vehicle is intended to reach orbital velocity before attempting a reentry into Earth's atmosphere over the Pacific Ocean. If all goes well, it will make a controlled descent and landing into the ocean just north of the Hawaiian islands." A shame we won't get to see the booster land. And it sounds like they aren't trying to capture the upper stage either, unless they have a really big drone ship.
- grecy 4y agoLots of speculation that SpaceX will likely try to "soft land" the booster in the ocean, just like the did with Falcon 9 first stage the first ~handful of times they were trying to land it (or, more accurately, learn how to land it). Possibly similar with the upper stage too, just so they can practice and learn.
- TaylorAlexander 4y agoI think the upper stage they might use lacks the control fins necessary for their landing maneuver.
- sbuttgereit 4y agoThe upper stage uses the belly flop maneuver and it has the fins for that. So they could go through the whole process as far as the vehicle is concerned.
- TaylorAlexander 4y agoSpaceX has one upper stage that they built without those fins. I was under the impression it might be used for the first flight, but someone else clarified that one is expected to fly another time, and the first flight is expected to use a normal ship capable of belly flop.
- realworldperson 4y ago[dead]
- ck2 4y ago[flagged]
- stametseater 4y agoIt's clearly not seaworthy yet they call it a ship! What a farce, I want my money back.
- plaguepilled 4y agoMr Theseus, a letter from the council. It reads, "at what point in a ships construction-"
- goatlover 4y agoI do wonder why we decided to reuse the maritime nomenclature instead of coming up with a new one. Why would a space armada be considered a navy?
- SyzygistSix 4y agoSpace fleets will be relegated to the conceptual world of delivery trucks and Greyhound soon enough. Let people be grandiose while the novelty lasts.
- esskay 4y agoEh? It's litterally designed to ferry people back and fourth from mars. Just because it can also launch satellites it doesn't stop it being an interplanetary vehicle.
- ETH_start 4y agoWe're truly on the cusp of a civilizational metamorphosis.
- jiggawatts 4y agoThe trillion dollar question is: does humanity colonise space in time to escape the coming AI apocalypse?
- sirius87 4y agoAI would likely be a first-class participant or citizen in any early human colony in space. Our perception of risk-to-civilization changes significantly for off-world events. Just like the plan to build nuclear reactors on the Moon, the threat from AI isn't deemed serious if the plan is to have AI bots on another celestial body. If that were to play out, that would mean the demand for building the AI ecosystem would only increase, and even if it were for off-world deployment, it would still disrupt industries and economies on Earth.
- bombcar 4y agoAI will take one look at us, and jump on the rockets and get as far away from us as possible.
- repler 4y agoThis is actually a really great point. Practically speaking, the internet "lives" on Earth and the communication latency grows the further away from it you travel. 24 minutes between Earth and Mars isn't horrible (although that is a 48 minute round trip to get an answer) but if people were living in a colony then even the current generation of LLM AIs could significantly improve daily life.
- esskay 4y agoIt's a few weeks, certainly not days - even Elon, master of over promising said its not days.
- mlindner 4y agoPeople need to make sure to maintain their expectations. This launch is not a failure if the rocket blows up soon after take off. They have an assembly facility built to build these vehicles quicker and quicker and every new vehicle is modified from the last. The only thing that would be a failure is if it blows up on/near the pad and damages the facilities they've built over the last two years or so that would put another delay in the testing regime. This rocket is significantly more "slapped together" than past rockets and has been designed in a way to minimize cost as much as possible. It would be extremely surprising in fact for this flight to be a complete success.
- consumer451 4y agoIf it does make it to the planned apogee, I am curious what percentage of heat shield tiles will remain attached all the way to splash. My uninformed gut tells me that this might be a problem area.
- cubefox 4y agoYeah, how the heat shield holds up seems one of the most interesting topics. But they only have very limited options of investigating damages on their first attempt, since they won't recover the upper stage. So they have to rely on sensor data and possibly photo/video. More recent prototypes don't even have a heat shield anymore. The heat shield will probably come into focus when they try to recover the upper stage. But initially their focus will be on recovering the lower stage, since it has way more engines, which makes it more expensive.
- consumer451 4y ago> More recent prototypes don't even have a heat shield anymore Is this for a reusable Starship, or just the lunar lander mission for Artemis?
- cubefox 4y agoFor the partly reusable Starship, which will be used for orbital satellite launches well before Artemis 3. It seems they first just go for reusing the lower stage, similar to Falcon 9.
- franckl 4y agoHow much GHG does the rocket emit?
- bryanlarsen 4y agoApproximately as much as a 747.
- hi41 4y agoHow is SpaceX able to undertake such incredible projects when established agencies such as Nasa cannot. I am awestruck. I feel so small compared to people who are able accomplish extraordinary things.
- MrOwnPut 4y agoGovernment programs are inefficient. Also NASA is a former of it's self, funding wise.
- stetrain 4y agoThe development of Falcon 9, Dragon Cargo, Dragon Crew, and now Starship have all been partially funded as Government Programs. The difference is that a faction within NASA has been fighting to run these and other projects as open-bid commercial service contracts, where NASA can provide detailed requirements but not dictate specifically where and how the vehicles are built, and this has encouraged diversity and competition in these markets. Traditional NASA development projects (like the SLS rocket) are micromanaged by congress in the budget, where congress dictates specifics of rocket design to ensure specific contractors in specific states receive a slice of the pie in defense-industry style cost-plus contracts.
- swarnie 4y agoThe most coherent answer I've had when asking this before is it basically comes down to capitalist theory. SpaceX want (and need) to deliver the best viable product to market as soon as possible, everyone involved is focused on this singular vision. NASA will have its funding cut or expanded on a 4-8 year basis. Politicians, agencies, states and other companies will lobby to get investment in their preferred areas. Even scientists/departments/entire universities will lobby to get their personal pet projects on to a mission to further their own agendas. Frankly im unsure how a public space program can even operate most the time.
- 93po 4y agoI have heard at least one reason NASA doesn't work as well as it should is because its methods are dictated by politicians who know nothing. I think the shuttle program is the common example of this - it was selected by the VP at the time and there were a lot of detractors in the industry saying it was a bad decision. In retrospect the detractors were proven correct.
- wankle 4y agoI like that it looks like a starship dreamed up in the 1950's.
- tim333 4y agoYeah it looks cool IMO. I have the NY skyscraper style photo as my screensaver https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/08/with-a-single-photo-spacex-sent-a-not-so-subtle-message-to-faa-regulators/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/08/with-a-single-photo-...
- cubefox 4y agoThen look what an initial prototype looked like: https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-spacex-steel-test-hopper-starship-texas-2019-1 https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-spacex-steel-test-...
- archsurface 4y agoClickbait - weeks, not days.