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> I argue that Japan is a harbinger state, which experiences many challenges before others in the international system. A good example is housing. Japan had a
by hourago 4y ago
> I argue that Japan is a harbinger state, which experiences many challenges before others in the international system.
A good example is housing. Japan had a gigantic housing bubble a decade in advance than the USA and Europe. It is also interesting to see that meanwhile declining population has not reduced price of houses in the city, it has made many town houses almost free. I would expect this to be replicated elsewhere.
Another interesting one is technology. Japan got trapped in the 90s, the fax era, and it is difficult to change. Will also the USA and Europe get stuck technologically as the population grows older? Again, it is to be expected.
Japan is not the world, but it seems reasonable that can give a heads up for many problems that other places will experience in the future.
- tjpnz 4y ago>Another interesting one is technology. Japan got trapped in the 90s, the fax era, and it is difficult to change. Will also the USA and Europe get stuck technologically as the population grows older? Again, it is to be expected. I've lived in Japan for eight years and the only time I've ever been asked to fax something was by an American company. I told them no.
- pigsty 4y agoI recently (months ago)left a company where everything was faxed. All records were typed on computers, printed, and faxed to companies. Orders as well.
- LeanderK 4y agojapan, us or somewhere else?
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- anigbrowl 4y agoprinted, and faxed Perplexed that they weren't faxed directly from computers. Are the records not considered 'real' until they exist in paper form, for which there are well-established storage/ retrieval/ relocation standards?
- freetime2 4y agoA few months ago when applying for internet service from NTT they required me to fax a copy of my residence card. I ended up going with KDDI (for that and other reasons).
- ne0flex 4y agoI work for a Japanese bank in NYC. Up until COVID, when we had documents that had to be signed by the Tokyo team, we'd overnight it to them via DHL.
- pezezin 4y agoI've only had to sent two faxes in my whole life, and both have been in the last four years while living in Japan. One was for Amazon, and the other for the Sapporo police.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- aikinai 4y agoIt’s not imposed on consumers as much anymore, but in business, it’s still huge. There are plenty of articles about it even locally in Japanese.
- formerly_proven 4y agoSituation in Germany: House prices are going down the last few months, but much more slowly than they consistently rose during the preceding 15 years. At the same time interest has sharply risen. Compared to prices there's a much bigger decrease in new construction, which I'd interpret as people increasingly not pursuing houses and instead piling onto the rent market. Urban/suburban/"sprawl" houses were basically a DI(preferably-NK-and-wealthy-parents-chipping-in) and beyond thing before, I'd suspect houses will continue to shrink while drifting even further up the income distribution and everyone else must rent for life - at an average rent/income ratio of around one third which has only ever been going up, and is of course much higher for non-DI households. Home ownership rate has always been falling and continues to do so (fell below 50 % in 2022). It'll get a lot lower when boomers start leaving their houses (feet first most likely), because baby boomers have far high home ownership rate than following generations. And with recent changes to the way houses are legally valuated and inheritance taxation I'd suspect many kids of baby boomers can't actually afford to inherit their parents houses and will have to sell. I dunno where this is supposed to converge to. Everyone renting at >50 % of net income (which is already not at all uncommon, especially for singles in cities) from huge housing companies?
- MarkPNeyer 4y agoHi, thanks for sharing - do you mind explaining what DI and NK mean? Thank you :)
- Terretta 4y agoDINK == Dual Income No Kids
- TacticalCoder 4y agoDINK means "Double Income No Kids".
- dzonga 4y agoI think for you - Germany might be an anomaly since in Germany you guys have strong rental protections. and rentals can have long leases i.e 3+ years. whereas in the UK / US a lease usually last a year. in london with average leases being 6 months to a year. in the UK new builds are inflated due to gvt shenanigans
- zeroCalories 4y agoDeclining population isn't entirely relevant. Japan's major cities still continue to grow, and western countries will probably continue to grow as a whole due to immigration. I still suspect that we will see housing bubbles pop in some major western cities, but many will fight it to the death. I predict that whole industries moving to areas with more reasonable housing policy will be the cause. We already see it in cases with investment in Eastern Europe (especially Ukraine until a year ago), and southern U.S states. Part of me hopes that these cities with horribly selfish housing policy end up like the declining western cities that lost out when manufacturing went overseas.
- rwmj 4y agoHousing in Japan is so peculiar that it seems difficult to draw global lessons from it. Are there any other countries in the world where a perfectly servicable house that is over 30 years old is literally worth less than nothing (because it "must" be demolished before the land can be reused)?
- alangibson 4y agoI've never heard this before. Any insight into why values so quickly drop to 0?
- makeitdouble 4y agoBuilding codes changing and earthquake resistant construction: plumbing is more flexible and less durable, shake resistance technology evolves enough to make old building deprecated (or the house is straight build with light wood with a set life expectancy)
- rwmj 4y agoThis is the reason often stated, but I don't think it's always the true reason. I think people just don't want to live in a house that another family lived in if they have the choice (rental apartments seem to be different). Also if it was true then people wouldn't be living in any house older than 30 years since they'd fear death by earthquake. But that's not true - I know loads of Japanese people who have lived in their house for more than 30 years. It's only when the land changes hands that it suddenly becomes vitally important to implement this rule.
- gkanai 4y ago> A good example is housing. I think housing is a bad example to use wrt Japan. Japan is one of the few markets in the world where, for the most part, only land has value. Buildings LOSE value over time. This is for multiple reasons but mostly due to ever-changing earthquake-related construction regulations such that it's almost always cheaper to rebuild from scratch than keep an edifice and retrofit to regulations. This is also why Japan has more architects than any other country- if buildings are not kept and are almost always destroyed after a 30 year mortgage, the owner can build whatever they want and not have to be concerned about resale value- so lots of unique residential architecture. Alastair Townsend first covered this in ArchDaily years ago and it went on to be covered extensively by NPR and other outlets. https://www.archdaily.com/450212/why-japan-is-crazy-about-housing https://www.archdaily.com/450212/why-japan-is-crazy-about-ho...
- zurn 4y agoBuildings lose value over time in most places. And in many places where they don't, including renovation investments in the picture results shows declining value.
- dr-detroit 4y ago[dead]
- imtringued 4y agoThe only places where buildings go up in value is where the building has been grandfathered in and is no longer able to be built in accordance with modern zoning rules.
- ryukafalz 4y agoWhich is rather common in my experience. The town adjacent to the one I just moved to has a bunch of duplexes, but if you look at the current zoning it's all single-family-only. You couldn't build much of the town as it is today, which is a shame as it's very nice. As you might expect given this, the town has steadily lost population.
- steveBK123 4y agoEurope - sure US has mostly solved our population aging problem with having fairly open immigration and high immigration numbers relative to the rest of the developed/rich world.. Now if politics change that, it's another story.
- zirgs 4y agoHigh immigration numbers are fine for countries like the USA. But for many small countries it's a death sentence.
- ericmay 4y agoWhy? And do you mean small geographically or small population-wise? Perhaps both/neither?
- zirgs 4y agoPopulation wise. Imagine 500k immigrants a year. It would be nothing for a country like India. But it would be a death sentence for Iceland.
- ericmay 4y agoDeath sentence in that you envision the services and economy can’t handle that many new immigrants?
- zirgs 4y agoIceland with 80% of immigrants would not be Iceland any more. Its language and culture would be completely marginalised and replaced with something else.
- steveBK123 4y agoNo one is saying Iceland should take 80% immigrants. A rational conversation is that US takes a higher % of immigrants than most of the developed world. No one sane is comparing notional numbers comparing a 330M country & small 5M countries. Talking % terms means it doesn't matter the base size.
- Cthulhu_ 4y ago> Will also the USA and Europe get stuck technologically as the population grows older? Again, it is to be expected. You already see it in some countries that just skipped cable TV, desktop PCs and wired internet, and that went straight to smartphones with mobile internet (or wifi). These are countries where you can do everything with your phone, whereas here some (e.g. government, banking organizations) are still trying to catch up and adjust.
- ROTMetro 4y agoBut is this MORE technological? Using smartphones imparts way less tech capabilities on the user than does using PCs, and definitely doesn't push users to learning new things (how many people are discovering IDEs on their phone and learning development as a hobby?).
- gonzo41 4y agoOld people love buttons. I don't say this disparagingly. I too long for my feature phone days. Things were simpler.
- Mumps 4y agoTyped from a Cherry MX "keeb".
- ehnto 4y ago> Will also the USA and Europe get stuck technologically as the population grows older? Again, it is to be expected. I think they may have escaped to evergreen technology for consumer electronics, but one might argue America is equally as trapped by historical infrastructure. Japan's infrastructure is interesting as it's clear much of it was built in the 80s and 90s, but it's still serviceable and their big bets on trains turned out to be rather future proof. When walking the streets, especially somewhere like Osaka, you can see much of the signage, bridges, pedestrian crossing buttons are very old indeed. You do often feel like you are in a future-past of some kind. None of these statements apply universally across both countries mind you, there is good rail in the US and modern infra in Japan as well.
- wheelerof4te 4y ago"Another interesting one is technology. Japan got trapped in the 90s, the fax era, and it is difficult to change." I believe that their mindset and stance towards technology is simply different. Japan had a history of "gadget technology", which was revolutional in the 90's before the Internet became ubiquious. I am guessing that they (myself included) were dissapointed in the direction technological advances went. Their vision maybe didn't happen, but that doesn't make it wrong, or that the current technological trends are right.
- quartesixte 4y ago>Their vision maybe didn't happen, but that doesn't make it wrong, or that the current technological trends are right. Nicely put. Perhaps the smartphone era will be seen as a odd blip in a long history of gadgets. Who knows what the future might bring?
- x98asfd 4y ago>Another interesting one is technology. Japan got trapped in the 90s, the fax era, and it is difficult to change. Will also the USA and Europe get stuck technologically as the population grows older? Again, it is to be expected. Would beg to differ. Japan is one those nation with extremely advanced space, robotic and nuclear tech. They can be a nuclear power over night if they are allowed to legally. Far as space, they landed probe on asteroid for space mining (https://www.space.com/41898-hayabusa2-deploys-hopping-robots-asteroid-ryugu.html https://www.space.com/41898-hayabusa2-deploys-hopping-robots... ).
- rayiner 4y agoYeah, this is a very narrow HN definition of “technology”—I.e. web technology. And even then it overlooks the hardware side, since Japan has among the fastest broadband speeds, Japanese companies are leaders in cellular and fiber communications technology, etc. In terms of “core industrial competencies”—ability to design and build a nuke, ability to make advanced materials, ability to design and build a competitive microprocessor, ability to put things in space, etc.—Japan is still the second most technologically advanced country in the world.
- JamesBarney 4y agoAnd weirdly enough making high quality ball bearings.
- retrac 4y ago> Japan got trapped in the 90s, the fax era, and it is difficult to change The fax machine in Japan is always treated like it's proof they're stuck in a timewarp, an earlier age, and just haven't moved on. But I think it makes sense. Japan was introduced to fax technology early on. Japanese is traditionally written vertically. It is written with Chinese characters. In handwritten Japanese, people actually invent/modify characters on the spot. (Much as how Engl. text might be littered with randomly-invented abbr'vns.) They're not going to be able to enter those into a computer easily. Some Japanese newspapers were using traditional typesetting techniques right into the 21st century because vertical text support was, and largely still is, an afterthought in most publishing software. Software has only recently gotten to the point where it can replace a fax machine and handwriting, for reproducing Japanese texts in the manner the Japanese expect. Besides scanning/taking a photo of a page and emailing it, which isn't enough of an improvement to motivate the change. (Particularly as business faxes just end up digitized and emailed anyway.)
- wk_end 4y ago> declining population has not reduced price of houses in the city Despite overall declining population, Japan's major urban centres are actually increasing their population. Tokyo, Osaka, Yokohama, Nagoya, Sapporo, Fukuoka, Hiroshima, Sendai, and more are all growing cities.
- nebula8804 4y agoPeople like Peter Zeihan argue that the USA seems like it will have a large replacement population just because they had a large population to begin with (boomers -> Millenials -> Gen Alpha). There are things that can blunt this (Millenials can't afford to have kids) but so far it seems like it is holding fairly steady. Given this it would be difficult to argue for them getting stuck in some specific technological era.
- ROTMetro 4y agoConsidering older people tend to use computers and be more tech savvy while younger generations only interact with tech on their phones it will be interesting how this turns out.
- tudorizer 4y agoPeople do like to mention those faxes a lot, don't they? Or pocket translators. I think there are other uses of tech far beyond it that are far better integrated in the Japanese society that in the western world.