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To be perfectly honest, this is still within a 1000km radius circle that encompasses Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. That covers the majority of next-generation

To be perfectly honest, this is still within a 1000km radius circle that encompasses Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. That covers the majority of next-generation fabs that aren't Intel. It's great to legally diversify these fabs, but it does very little to mitigate geopolitical issues that are brewing in and around the east china sea.

nscalf 4y ago
How does it do little to diversify these fabs? The current situation is that if China invades Taiwan, the entire Western world is compelled to engage militarily over Taiwan's high end chip fabs. It cannot be overstated how much we depend on that, if TSMC operates in other countries, we don't HAVE to engage in WW3.
- LeifCarrotson 4y ago
  A fab in Ohio, Oregon, or Arizona 10,000 km from China is safe from threats like cruise missiles that the proposed fab 1000 km from China in Japan or South Korea would not be. It's not so much that cruise missiles used on civilian targets in South Korea or Japan would not be a reason to start WW3, more that it would be less tempting.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - theptip 4y ago
    I'm confused by this take. Who is threatening Japan with cruise missiles? Certainly not China or Russia. North Korea, perhaps. The primary reason that we're concerned about semiconductor fab concentration in Taiwan is that China has consistently stated that it is going to invade Taiwan at some point (and that could be 2049 or in a few years for all we know). This is completely outside of any hypothetical scenarios of who lobs cruise missiles at who during WW3. You can make the point that relying on semiconductor manufacturing outside of your country/coalition is a bad idea for military self-sufficiency, and I would agree, but that's a much more diffuse risk than the very specific scenario that is driving the CHIPS act and concern about fab concentration in Taiwan.
    - slickrick216 4y ago
      If China attempts an invasion on Taiwan it is not unrealistic to suggest they’ll also take a swing at Japan and at least try to destroy the fabs there.
      - theptip 4y ago
        That seems very unrealistic to suggest, to me.
      - xwolfi 4y ago
        It is very unlikely, if not impossible: China has repeatedly stated Taiwan is in China, Taiwan has repeatedly stated they, in fact, are the legitimate China, both prepare day and night for an invasion they never dismiss, and both are a direct threat to each other politically, geographically and culturally. Japan ? They're as threatened by China as India, and nobody in China is planning for administrative take over of 130 millions Japanese anytime soon. And Japan has so many problems to solve already, they're not looking at bothering China enough to risk missiles.
      - mlsu 4y ago
        If China invaded Taiwan it would be despite, not because of, the fabs there.
      - bendhoefs 4y ago
        Why? If China decides to invade Taiwan surely they'll do everything they can to not give the rest of the world a reason to intervene. They want Taiwan not a war with the entire west all at once.
        nordsieck 4y ago
        > If China decides to invade Taiwan surely they'll do everything they can to not give the rest of the world a reason to intervene. That only works if the rest of the world hasn't already decided to intervene. And sure - NATO isn't "the rest of the world"; but militarily, it might as well be.
        4y ago
  - permo-w 4y ago
    China recently tested a hypersonic missile that circumnavigated the global and then marginally missed its target
    - vkou 4y ago
      If China and the United States are in a full-on shooting war, the last thing I'm going to be worried about is what country 5nm chip fabs are based in. It's a complete and utter failure state of civilization, and is one hot-headed decision away from going nuclear. If chip fabs are at the top list of your worries, your perspective of war is probably overly informed by being on the side that undertakes imperial adventures against people who can't shoot back. Direct war against an actual superpower is horrific.
      - permo-w 4y ago
        pardon?
  - rat87 4y ago
    Long range Cruise missles can hit Ohio Oregon or Arizona just as easily
  - sitkack 4y ago
    All this talk of China invading Taiwan and attacking other countries in SE Asia is bonkers. Their economy would be cut off from the rest of the world in an instant. Their commercial fishing fleets would probably be driven back to port. It would take a matter of days until they had massive internal protests. Hungry people topple governments in hours.
    - toss1 4y ago
      Yes it is bonkers, indeed! Yet, it is EXACTLY what Xi repeatedly said in his new-term-inauguration speech The dictator of China has effectively declared, as publicly as possible, and very specifically, that he intends to invade Taiwan if it does not willingly abandon it's democracy and come under China's rule He obviously thinks he can get away with doing so without consequences, including those you suggest. Yet, leaders make such mistakes all the time. Putin just made one on 24-Feb-2022. It is up to the western world to ensure that Xi sees that such an action would result in bad consequences for him, and deter him from his stated course. But the fact that it is bonkers is no assurance whatsoever that it won't happen.
      - cowtools 4y ago
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%27s_final_warning https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%27s_final_warning
        toss1 4y ago
        That's great — China issued over 900 "Final Warnings" about US military presence in the Taiwan Straits, and zero of them had any follow-through. That gives us good reason to hope that China will keep behaving that way. We can keep up the deterrence, China can keep on blustering, and nothing bad actually happens. That would indeed be a great result. Indeed, seems like a most likely scenario.
        dirtyid 4y ago
        Except, PRC "Final Warnings" has preluded actual war or near actual war with every NPT nuclear state, a few times when PRC wasn't (or not meaningfully) a nuclear power herself, on issues much less important than TW, when PRC was much more militarily weak than it is now. This includes USSR skirmishes (hence why the Soviet meme is stupid), US+UN in Korea, threatening UK over HK handover, secretly shelling French in Vietnam, multiple TW strait crisis. To add insult to injury, with respect to source of this meme, PRC "final warnings" throughout this period shot down 5 U2s, that's 3 more than USSR. So not only was PRC following up with warnings, but they managed to do so more successfully than USSR.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
- JAlexoid 4y ago
  Em... I doubt that semiconductor industry is the thing to lead us to WW3.
  - nscalf 4y ago
    If Taiwan is taken off the board for semiconductors, or if all semiconductors have to go through China, that means the entire US military (and all western militaries) are dependent on a geopolitical rival. To allow that would be nothing short of giving away the game.
    - patmorgan23 4y ago
      There are advanced Fabs in Israel, Intel and TSMC are both building next gen Fabs in Arizona. It's not like Twain is the only place with advanced chip fabs(though yes the vast majority of the capacity is there and IIRC thats where their latest process nodes are but I don't think the military is dependent on those absolute cutting edge process nodes)
      - heavyset_go 4y ago
        Those fabs won't start producing for years.
      - ElevenLathe 4y ago
        Taiwan is also the center of a lot of specialist equipment (not the big swiss-watch ASML machines, but stuff like wafer transports, cleanroom gear, etc.) and consumables (chemicals, bunny suits, etc.). I don't know how extensive and fragile that ecosystem is but I live in eastern Michigan and it seems like every small to midsize town has some tiny automotive supplier that is somehow still in business even while the big plants have moved on. I suspect this is largely because they have no competitors and it is specialist work that doesn't really scale (meaning there is only so much of this work to go around, even if global auto sales 10x) so no one is really motivated to compete either. The result is that the GM and Ford plants leave the country, but still rely on a relatively small set of expertise and tooling that only exist in the rust belt. Presumably, a thorough nuking of the Midwest would (in addition to lots of other unpleasant effects, like the death and famine millions, perhaps billions) at least require the pause of the majority of auto manufacturing around the globe. Assuming people still wanted cars after such an event, it could be recovered, but it would take time. I got a little carried away with the Michigan analogy, but IMO it doesn't go far enough: Taiwan is far more integral to the global semiconductor industry than Detroit is to the global auto industry.
- rat87 4y ago
  No just no Our dedication to protect our ally Taiwan has nothing to do with Silicone and neither does China's nationalist obsession over it. If it comes to war, chips will play no role
  - l33t233372 4y ago
    What does our dedication have to do with if not that? Why are you so quick to dismiss being protective of such an important resource as a motivation to protect Taiwan?
  - giobox 4y ago
    While we can likely all agree "Silicone" is not the issue, silicon chips is undoubtedly an important variable. The Taiwanese government agrees too, and does think chips will play a role: "Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-wen, told one group that she saw the island’s tech prowess as a means of shoring up support for its democracy. Calling economic security a “pillar” of national security, she said Taiwan was willing to work with partners to build sustainable supply chains for what she called “democracy chips.” > https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/29/technology/taiwan-chips.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/29/technology/taiwan-chips.h... This is hardly an "out-there" take, too.
- Apofis 4y ago
  My laptop and iPhone are fast enough… I can’t believe some people would risk a nuclear war over not having the latest iPhone next year.
  - toss1 4y ago
    The latest electronic gadget is NOT what it is about It is whether the democracies of the world will abandon democracy and allow dictators to take over their societies by threat of force or force. If we are not both better armed, better prepared, and willing to fight, we might as well hand over the key to Putin, Xi, and Un, and live under their dictatorships. If we want freedom, we must risk war, and if the threat is nuclear war, then that most of all must be faced down. There is a reason we don't negotiate with terrorists or blackmailers — because if we negotiate and let them gain from terrorism or blackmail, we get a short period of peace before they try it again, along with every other wannabe dictator who can get their hands on some weapons. This all applies even more strongly with nukes. It sucks, but there is no other choice.
    - aaronblohowiak 4y ago
      I agree with you. But people don't care about democracy and freedom anymore. Not like they used to, anyway.
      - toss1 4y ago
        If they don't start caring on their own in a big hurry, they'll be forced to understand why they should care in only a slightly lesser hurry... I don't want to be condemned to repeat history because hordes of dolts can't even begin to pay attention ugh
- jotm 4y ago
  I mean, yeah, they're great, but come on. Most of the important stuff runs on stuff that's decades old.
- iepathos 4y ago
  The western world would not be compelled to engage militarily over Taiwan. We'd only need to provide money and weapons to Taiwan (rank #21 military in the world) to hold off China (#3) indefinitely given the fact that Taiwan is incredibly difficult to invade due to the barrier the mountain ridges form around it and the narrow straight leading to it for a sea attack. It's a natural fortress. Look at the ongoing failure of Russia (#2) in Ukraine (#22) despite not having difficult land to traverse in their invasion and having a greater advantage in military power by comparison.
  - xyzzyz 4y ago
    How do you provide weapons to Taiwan if Chinese Navy blockades Taiwan?
    - tuatoru 4y ago
      Ahead of time.
      - SkyMarshal 4y ago
        They'll run out of something necessary eventually - food, fossil fuels, ammo, etc - forcing the US and allies to decide whether to intervene or not.
        tuatoru 4y ago
        I hope the US is ready to go with orbital kinetic energy weapons. Ten thousand or so projectiles, each made of 50 kilograms of tungsten, raining down at multiple kilometers per second, would likely...suppress...any attempted blockade. "Star wars" is feasible with reusable launch to orbit vehicles.
      - xyzzyz 4y ago
        Just like we did with Ukraine?
        4y ago
- rcarr 4y ago
  The company that makes the machines that TSMC use to make chips is Dutch if I remember correctly. So if Taiwan gets invaded it is a disaster but not an absolute disaster as presumably USA/other countries could order some machines from said company and start afresh. Supply would be constrained for a long period of time and there would be a massive economic hit but it wouldn’t necessarily have to lead to WW3. If Russia is anything to go by, presumably there will be indicators in the months before as to when an attack is going to happen which means TSMC staff could be evacuated to other countries to get things up and running. I think I also read somewhere that USA was already in the process of setting up more chip fabrication on US soil in conjunction with TSMC, I think maybe in Texas if I remember right? I think I also read that the entire foundry would be rigged to blow in the case of invasion. Between controlled demolitions such as these by Taiwan and whatever China has to fire at them to successfully win, there would be very little of value left standing on the island by the end of it. It would take them decades to redevelop it. Very hollow victory for China.
coryfklein 4y ago
Despite being close to China as the crow flies, the geopolitical difference between Japan and Taiwan means they could be on opposite sides of the globe.
- hayst4ck 4y ago
  Can you break that down? I am not sure I understand what you mean.
  - TillE 4y ago
    They're different countries with entirely different relationships to the PRC.
    - hayst4ck 4y ago
      "On entire other sides of the globe" is a pretty strong statement. Japan is a vassal state of the US and Taiwan's independence from China relies wholly on US support. Chinese citizens (at least the ones I questioned) have no love for Japanese. There are even talks of a Pacific NATO between Vietnam, Korea, Japan, and the Phillipines, with Taiwan being the clear Ukraine parallel. South Korea is probably politically like Germany (primarily self interested), Japan is probably politically like the UK (sees the bigger picture).
      - rat87 4y ago
        Japan is not a vassal state. It's a powerful country that's an ally of the US.
        hayst4ck 4y ago
        Japan's constitution prohibits a traditional military as a result of surrender in WW2. Not having the right to solve your own disputes sounds like vassalization to me. From a face saving perspective "powerful ally country" is probably the status of every vassal state. From a de facto perspective they are not allowed to solve their own disputes and house military bases of a country that solves disputes (with the threat of violence) on their behalf. The difference between ally and vassal seems like one of alignment. Right now Japan and the US are quite aligned, but were alignment different, I think the status would be as well.
xwdv 4y ago
China is not dumb enough to assault Japan, and if they blow up Japanese fabs they know that will be the end of China as we once knew it. Don’t give the US a reason to retaliate hard. They might rattle their sabers but these fabs will be safe.
hollerith 4y ago
Building a fab in Japan instead Taiwan does quite a lot to mitigate geopolitical issues.
lumost 4y ago
As far as I'm aware the US has treaty obligations with Japan which would require a full military intervention should Japan be attacked. Building a Fab in Japan is effectively a hedge against everything except a world war.
dang 4y ago
(We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33245988 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33245988)

nscalf 4y ago

How does it do little to diversify these fabs? The current situation is that if China invades Taiwan, the entire Western world is compelled to engage militarily over Taiwan's high end chip fabs. It cannot be overstated how much we depend on that, if TSMC operates in other countries, we don't HAVE to engage in WW3.

LeifCarrotson 4y ago
A fab in Ohio, Oregon, or Arizona 10,000 km from China is safe from threats like cruise missiles that the proposed fab 1000 km from China in Japan or South Korea would not be. It's not so much that cruise missiles used on civilian targets in South Korea or Japan would not be a reason to start WW3, more that it would be less tempting.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- theptip 4y ago
  I'm confused by this take. Who is threatening Japan with cruise missiles? Certainly not China or Russia. North Korea, perhaps. The primary reason that we're concerned about semiconductor fab concentration in Taiwan is that China has consistently stated that it is going to invade Taiwan at some point (and that could be 2049 or in a few years for all we know). This is completely outside of any hypothetical scenarios of who lobs cruise missiles at who during WW3. You can make the point that relying on semiconductor manufacturing outside of your country/coalition is a bad idea for military self-sufficiency, and I would agree, but that's a much more diffuse risk than the very specific scenario that is driving the CHIPS act and concern about fab concentration in Taiwan.
  - slickrick216 4y ago
    If China attempts an invasion on Taiwan it is not unrealistic to suggest they’ll also take a swing at Japan and at least try to destroy the fabs there.
    - theptip 4y ago
      That seems very unrealistic to suggest, to me.
    - xwolfi 4y ago
      It is very unlikely, if not impossible: China has repeatedly stated Taiwan is in China, Taiwan has repeatedly stated they, in fact, are the legitimate China, both prepare day and night for an invasion they never dismiss, and both are a direct threat to each other politically, geographically and culturally. Japan ? They're as threatened by China as India, and nobody in China is planning for administrative take over of 130 millions Japanese anytime soon. And Japan has so many problems to solve already, they're not looking at bothering China enough to risk missiles.
    - mlsu 4y ago
      If China invaded Taiwan it would be despite, not because of, the fabs there.
    - bendhoefs 4y ago
      Why? If China decides to invade Taiwan surely they'll do everything they can to not give the rest of the world a reason to intervene. They want Taiwan not a war with the entire west all at once.
      - nordsieck 4y ago
        > If China decides to invade Taiwan surely they'll do everything they can to not give the rest of the world a reason to intervene. That only works if the rest of the world hasn't already decided to intervene. And sure - NATO isn't "the rest of the world"; but militarily, it might as well be.
      - 4y ago
- permo-w 4y ago
  China recently tested a hypersonic missile that circumnavigated the global and then marginally missed its target
  - vkou 4y ago
    If China and the United States are in a full-on shooting war, the last thing I'm going to be worried about is what country 5nm chip fabs are based in. It's a complete and utter failure state of civilization, and is one hot-headed decision away from going nuclear. If chip fabs are at the top list of your worries, your perspective of war is probably overly informed by being on the side that undertakes imperial adventures against people who can't shoot back. Direct war against an actual superpower is horrific.
    - permo-w 4y ago
      pardon?
- rat87 4y ago
  Long range Cruise missles can hit Ohio Oregon or Arizona just as easily
- sitkack 4y ago
  All this talk of China invading Taiwan and attacking other countries in SE Asia is bonkers. Their economy would be cut off from the rest of the world in an instant. Their commercial fishing fleets would probably be driven back to port. It would take a matter of days until they had massive internal protests. Hungry people topple governments in hours.
  - toss1 4y ago
    Yes it is bonkers, indeed! Yet, it is EXACTLY what Xi repeatedly said in his new-term-inauguration speech The dictator of China has effectively declared, as publicly as possible, and very specifically, that he intends to invade Taiwan if it does not willingly abandon it's democracy and come under China's rule He obviously thinks he can get away with doing so without consequences, including those you suggest. Yet, leaders make such mistakes all the time. Putin just made one on 24-Feb-2022. It is up to the western world to ensure that Xi sees that such an action would result in bad consequences for him, and deter him from his stated course. But the fact that it is bonkers is no assurance whatsoever that it won't happen.
    - cowtools 4y ago
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%27s_final_warning https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%27s_final_warning
      - toss1 4y ago
        That's great — China issued over 900 "Final Warnings" about US military presence in the Taiwan Straits, and zero of them had any follow-through. That gives us good reason to hope that China will keep behaving that way. We can keep up the deterrence, China can keep on blustering, and nothing bad actually happens. That would indeed be a great result. Indeed, seems like a most likely scenario.
      - dirtyid 4y ago
        Except, PRC "Final Warnings" has preluded actual war or near actual war with every NPT nuclear state, a few times when PRC wasn't (or not meaningfully) a nuclear power herself, on issues much less important than TW, when PRC was much more militarily weak than it is now. This includes USSR skirmishes (hence why the Soviet meme is stupid), US+UN in Korea, threatening UK over HK handover, secretly shelling French in Vietnam, multiple TW strait crisis. To add insult to injury, with respect to source of this meme, PRC "final warnings" throughout this period shot down 5 U2s, that's 3 more than USSR. So not only was PRC following up with warnings, but they managed to do so more successfully than USSR.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
JAlexoid 4y ago
Em... I doubt that semiconductor industry is the thing to lead us to WW3.
- nscalf 4y ago
  If Taiwan is taken off the board for semiconductors, or if all semiconductors have to go through China, that means the entire US military (and all western militaries) are dependent on a geopolitical rival. To allow that would be nothing short of giving away the game.
  - patmorgan23 4y ago
    There are advanced Fabs in Israel, Intel and TSMC are both building next gen Fabs in Arizona. It's not like Twain is the only place with advanced chip fabs(though yes the vast majority of the capacity is there and IIRC thats where their latest process nodes are but I don't think the military is dependent on those absolute cutting edge process nodes)
    - heavyset_go 4y ago
      Those fabs won't start producing for years.
    - ElevenLathe 4y ago
      Taiwan is also the center of a lot of specialist equipment (not the big swiss-watch ASML machines, but stuff like wafer transports, cleanroom gear, etc.) and consumables (chemicals, bunny suits, etc.). I don't know how extensive and fragile that ecosystem is but I live in eastern Michigan and it seems like every small to midsize town has some tiny automotive supplier that is somehow still in business even while the big plants have moved on. I suspect this is largely because they have no competitors and it is specialist work that doesn't really scale (meaning there is only so much of this work to go around, even if global auto sales 10x) so no one is really motivated to compete either. The result is that the GM and Ford plants leave the country, but still rely on a relatively small set of expertise and tooling that only exist in the rust belt. Presumably, a thorough nuking of the Midwest would (in addition to lots of other unpleasant effects, like the death and famine millions, perhaps billions) at least require the pause of the majority of auto manufacturing around the globe. Assuming people still wanted cars after such an event, it could be recovered, but it would take time. I got a little carried away with the Michigan analogy, but IMO it doesn't go far enough: Taiwan is far more integral to the global semiconductor industry than Detroit is to the global auto industry.
rat87 4y ago
No just no Our dedication to protect our ally Taiwan has nothing to do with Silicone and neither does China's nationalist obsession over it. If it comes to war, chips will play no role
- l33t233372 4y ago
  What does our dedication have to do with if not that? Why are you so quick to dismiss being protective of such an important resource as a motivation to protect Taiwan?
- giobox 4y ago
  While we can likely all agree "Silicone" is not the issue, silicon chips is undoubtedly an important variable. The Taiwanese government agrees too, and does think chips will play a role: "Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-wen, told one group that she saw the island’s tech prowess as a means of shoring up support for its democracy. Calling economic security a “pillar” of national security, she said Taiwan was willing to work with partners to build sustainable supply chains for what she called “democracy chips.” > https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/29/technology/taiwan-chips.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/29/technology/taiwan-chips.h... This is hardly an "out-there" take, too.
Apofis 4y ago
My laptop and iPhone are fast enough… I can’t believe some people would risk a nuclear war over not having the latest iPhone next year.
- toss1 4y ago
  The latest electronic gadget is NOT what it is about It is whether the democracies of the world will abandon democracy and allow dictators to take over their societies by threat of force or force. If we are not both better armed, better prepared, and willing to fight, we might as well hand over the key to Putin, Xi, and Un, and live under their dictatorships. If we want freedom, we must risk war, and if the threat is nuclear war, then that most of all must be faced down. There is a reason we don't negotiate with terrorists or blackmailers — because if we negotiate and let them gain from terrorism or blackmail, we get a short period of peace before they try it again, along with every other wannabe dictator who can get their hands on some weapons. This all applies even more strongly with nukes. It sucks, but there is no other choice.
  - aaronblohowiak 4y ago
    I agree with you. But people don't care about democracy and freedom anymore. Not like they used to, anyway.
    - toss1 4y ago
      If they don't start caring on their own in a big hurry, they'll be forced to understand why they should care in only a slightly lesser hurry... I don't want to be condemned to repeat history because hordes of dolts can't even begin to pay attention ugh
jotm 4y ago
I mean, yeah, they're great, but come on. Most of the important stuff runs on stuff that's decades old.
iepathos 4y ago
The western world would not be compelled to engage militarily over Taiwan. We'd only need to provide money and weapons to Taiwan (rank #21 military in the world) to hold off China (#3) indefinitely given the fact that Taiwan is incredibly difficult to invade due to the barrier the mountain ridges form around it and the narrow straight leading to it for a sea attack. It's a natural fortress. Look at the ongoing failure of Russia (#2) in Ukraine (#22) despite not having difficult land to traverse in their invasion and having a greater advantage in military power by comparison.
- xyzzyz 4y ago
  How do you provide weapons to Taiwan if Chinese Navy blockades Taiwan?
  - tuatoru 4y ago
    Ahead of time.
    - SkyMarshal 4y ago
      They'll run out of something necessary eventually - food, fossil fuels, ammo, etc - forcing the US and allies to decide whether to intervene or not.
      - tuatoru 4y ago
        I hope the US is ready to go with orbital kinetic energy weapons. Ten thousand or so projectiles, each made of 50 kilograms of tungsten, raining down at multiple kilometers per second, would likely...suppress...any attempted blockade. "Star wars" is feasible with reusable launch to orbit vehicles.
    - xyzzyz 4y ago
      Just like we did with Ukraine?
      - 4y ago
rcarr 4y ago
The company that makes the machines that TSMC use to make chips is Dutch if I remember correctly. So if Taiwan gets invaded it is a disaster but not an absolute disaster as presumably USA/other countries could order some machines from said company and start afresh. Supply would be constrained for a long period of time and there would be a massive economic hit but it wouldn’t necessarily have to lead to WW3. If Russia is anything to go by, presumably there will be indicators in the months before as to when an attack is going to happen which means TSMC staff could be evacuated to other countries to get things up and running. I think I also read somewhere that USA was already in the process of setting up more chip fabrication on US soil in conjunction with TSMC, I think maybe in Texas if I remember right? I think I also read that the entire foundry would be rigged to blow in the case of invasion. Between controlled demolitions such as these by Taiwan and whatever China has to fire at them to successfully win, there would be very little of value left standing on the island by the end of it. It would take them decades to redevelop it. Very hollow victory for China.

coryfklein 4y ago

Despite being close to China as the crow flies, the geopolitical difference between Japan and Taiwan means they could be on opposite sides of the globe.

hayst4ck 4y ago
Can you break that down? I am not sure I understand what you mean.
- TillE 4y ago
  They're different countries with entirely different relationships to the PRC.
  - hayst4ck 4y ago
    "On entire other sides of the globe" is a pretty strong statement. Japan is a vassal state of the US and Taiwan's independence from China relies wholly on US support. Chinese citizens (at least the ones I questioned) have no love for Japanese. There are even talks of a Pacific NATO between Vietnam, Korea, Japan, and the Phillipines, with Taiwan being the clear Ukraine parallel. South Korea is probably politically like Germany (primarily self interested), Japan is probably politically like the UK (sees the bigger picture).
    - rat87 4y ago
      Japan is not a vassal state. It's a powerful country that's an ally of the US.
      - hayst4ck 4y ago
        Japan's constitution prohibits a traditional military as a result of surrender in WW2. Not having the right to solve your own disputes sounds like vassalization to me. From a face saving perspective "powerful ally country" is probably the status of every vassal state. From a de facto perspective they are not allowed to solve their own disputes and house military bases of a country that solves disputes (with the threat of violence) on their behalf. The difference between ally and vassal seems like one of alignment. Right now Japan and the US are quite aligned, but were alignment different, I think the status would be as well.

xwdv 4y ago

China is not dumb enough to assault Japan, and if they blow up Japanese fabs they know that will be the end of China as we once knew it. Don’t give the US a reason to retaliate hard. They might rattle their sabers but these fabs will be safe.

hollerith 4y ago

Building a fab in Japan instead Taiwan does quite a lot to mitigate geopolitical issues.

lumost 4y ago

As far as I'm aware the US has treaty obligations with Japan which would require a full military intervention should Japan be attacked. Building a Fab in Japan is effectively a hedge against everything except a world war.

dang 4y ago

(We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33245988 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33245988)