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Is big tech’s red-hot jobs market about to cool?
- bluedevil2k 4y agoI’m pretty sure it already has. Unicorns with a short runway doing big layoffs, “unicorns” with $600k ARR completely folding, and the big boys like Meta and Uber having hiring freezes. The TC may remain relatively high simply because wages tend to be sticky, but the competition for the top jobs will be tougher as the market power shifts to the tech companies that are actually profitable and can afford the top talent.
- lumost 4y agoIt'll be interesting how that shakes out with legacy tech platforms. A lot of the high profit tech is built on stuff that's more than 10 years old.
- ewagsjr 4y agoI think this might support your point unless you dont consider this as high profit. I currently work on a monolith customer service application that did $2.8bn in sales last year (we are a high margin company but sales $ amount is the only data available to me - projected to do ~$3.8bn this year). It's built using Eclipse RCP and a microservice architecture that consumes from a mix of DB2 LUW and AS400(IBM I) lol. It's about 13 years old.
- wordnerd2022 4y agoUber does not have a hiring freeze for engineering. They are for non tech functions. Source: I work at Uber and I’m hiring.
- mplewis 4y agoSo y'all do have a hiring freeze?
- effingwewt 4y agoRight, a selective hiring freeze is still a hiring freeze. Engineering would be the very last thing to get cut, as there will instantaneously be posts here and all over the internet. Freezing non-tech hiring is the canary in the coalmine. Like when companies start scaling back freebies. Once the downward trajectory starts it almost never reverses. I'm sure the people downvoting you know this and are simply mad you called a spade a spade.
- 01100011 4y agoWhat are the open reqs for? SWE? DL? I think for some highly sought-after roles, you never fully freeze hiring. There are also several pipelines for hiring, and some may get shut-off while others remain. Diversity candidates may not see a hiring freeze, for instance.
- 0des 4y agoMaybe at the bigcorps and over-VC'd startups, but outside of the valley it's hard to find good help in my experience.
- dboreham 4y agoIt has always been hard to find good people.
- whimsicalism 4y agoIt's quite easy actually, you are just underpaying.
- Closi 4y agoMore like it's quite easy if you dramatically overpay. Finding great people at a price you can afford is the usual aim - which doesn't mean underpaying but does mean that you can't just raise the price until the talent busts down your door.
- jen20 4y agoNo. Markets mean that you must indeed do that.
- bigDinosaur 4y agoHaving to pay a lot seems to be the side of the coin that the most pro free market advocates are not okay with.
- whimsicalism 4y agoSeems like the price you need to pay to actually get talent would be paying properly. Expecting to get talent while paying below market is called underpaying. It sounds like you either find yourself in an industry where tech work doesn't actually have much of an impact on revenue or one where business owners are reluctant to profit share with their productive workers. Other industries that don't have these hang-ups are doing fine with hiring.
- tempsy 4y agodoubt it for “big tech” eg Microsofts and Googles and Apples of the world. they seem to be largely doing fine despite whatever is happening to valuations. yes for companies with no profits and no sustainable business model eg the Ubers and the DoorDashes
- a1371 4y agoLayoffs are on the rise http://layoffs.fyi/ http://layoffs.fyi/ (the graphs don't show well on mobile)
- monkeybutton 4y agoWow, the depressing sibling to levels.fyi!
- rr808 4y agoSurprised to see so many layoffs in 2020 and 2021, makes 2022 look not bad.
- Izkata 4y agoAre we looking at the same graphs? May 2022 has more than all of 2021 combined.
- pm90 4y agoSeems like a lot of people want the market to crash. Or, everyone is trying to time the pop. Fundamentals for Tech is still pretty solid. Yes all the crypto/NFT can crash and burn but demand doesn’t seem like its going to fall unless there’s an actual crash. IMO the fact is simply that policymakers have become really good at ensuring that crashes like 2008 don’t happen again. Don’t believe the BS VCs are trying to sell. Yeah, startups won’t be able to raise money, its ok, there’s a ton of demand elsewhere for Tech jobs.
- tempsy 4y agomy guess is that competition for jobs at mega corps is actually going to become relatively fiercer because everyone now is seeking a flight to safety. i do wonder if that means that companies can get away with offering smaller compensation packages
- pm90 4y agoAs long as they’re not colluding but competing, this seems unlikely. As a sibling comment pointed out, wages “tend to be sticky”.
- tempsy 4y agoThere are pay bands. If you have multiple offers you can usually counter for more equity. In this market if you’re a megacorp you have the upper hand when the competition is Uber and their stock is down 70% eg you don’t need to counter so aggressively and offer so much more money whereas you might’ve a year ago
- fnordpiglet 4y agoMega corp comp doesn’t work like that. It takes years to adjust their bandings. As a hiring manager it always frustrates you because you’re hopelessly out of touch with the pervading market for comp. If they want to reduce costs they’ll slow hiring before reduce comp.
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- WoahNoun 4y agoThere is about to be a re-allocation of capital. But there is still far more demand to hire software engineers than the available talent even including the layoffs.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- bluedino 4y agoSomething has to happen. Even helpdesk people are starting at $60k in some companies.
- ABeeSea 4y agoDo you believe that is too much?
- cyberlurker 4y agoWhere in the US is that an unreasonably high amount for a good junior employee? In NYC metro area it sounds appropriate.
- colinmhayes 4y agoUS median salary for full time workers is $56,000
- joe-collins 4y ago$60k is right around what it would cost to support a single individual comfortably where I live, so that sounds entirely reasonable, if not a bit low.
- andrewstuart 4y agoI've been through maybe 4 crashes so far. This one doesn't feel like those ones. So far anyway. There's still companies hiring. It's still hard to find great people.
- kiernanmcgowan 4y agoStrangely, this feels like a good thing - that talent can get rebalanced to companies that are profitable and trying to grow, but can't because it's too hard to hire. Maybe this is too optimistic of an outlook, and I'll eat my words if I'm wrong, but I'm hedging that a recession takes us from red-hot to pretty warm.
- ummonk 4y agoI think what everyone is wondering is whether it will become like one of those crashes.
- paulpauper 4y agoAll these "has the market cooled" "are we in a bubble, " "bubble burst" etc. headlines come as the Nasdaq posts one of its strongest rebounds ever. This is why the media is useless as far as investing and forecasting is concerned. They are always late. Salaries will remain fat for top tech companies because the factors that were in place 2-10 years ago are still intact. nothing has changed. trillion dollar companies means higher stakes than ever.
- Uptrenda 4y agoIt's possible this rebound is a bad sign though. Traders call it a 'dead cat bounce': where there is a temporary recovery followed by a massive crash. Michael Burry predicted this exact scenario.
- paulpauper 4y agothey said the same thing in march 2020 during covid..turned out to be the real deal. or in march 2009...that was the bottom Bear markets tend to much briefer than bull markets, so timing them is much harder and trend following methods do not work well. Odds are you will sell too soon or have to chase a bear market rally that becomes the start of a new bull market.
- youeseh 4y agoThe difference this time around is quantitative tightening and increasing interest rates. If the Fed stays true to its word, then we'll remain in a bear market. Bear market rallies are bound to keep happening as people's retirement funds get cash inflows and fund managers allocate a portion to equities.
- karmakurtisaani 4y agoOf course many of the future fears are already priced in, which is always the difficulty in predicting the markets. If you have confidence that it will get worse soon, feel free to bet against the market for a quick buck.
- 01100011 4y agoThis needs to be repeated: 2000 took 2 years for the stock market to go from peak to trough. 2008 took 18 months. Anyone thinking "the crash" is a single moment or even a 3 month downturn should look at history. The fed is barely starting to tighten. Rates aren't that high yet. The job market is still red hot (and that's the problem). Let's have this discussion in 3-6 months. The fed has done everything they can to telegraph their intent and that intent is to drain money from the economy, slowing or crashing it, to restore price stability which is currently wrecking the finances of most of America. The fed doesn't care about stock markets or the valuation of your tech company right now.
- amscanne 4y agoYou’ve just conflated an interest rate tightening cycle with a market crash. The fed’s intent is not to crash the economy. While recessions tend to follow hike cycles, I believe that markets also tend to post (small) positive gains over the following two years. To me it seems a lot more likely that “the crash” was indeed blowing off froth, and that there may some recessionary period and growth will be subdued for a while (the actual tightening cycle), reflecting that we’re in neither 2000 or 2008. Either way, I agree that time will tell.
- beebmam 4y agoI think it's really quite weird that people talk about the current financial situation without ever mentioning the massive disruption and decoupling that globalization is undergoing right now. Russia has essentially been excised from the world's economy, and China's lockdowns and other political actions have spooked virtually all foreign investors and business operations in that country. And there's serious consequences for everyone. This inflation crisis is just one of those consequences.
- gmm1990 4y agoyeah it looks like a lot of market valuations are discounting the China decoupling risk. Maybe unlikely but I was surprised by the complete pullout from Russia.
- steve76 4y ago
- myroon5 4y agohttps://archive.ph/hKfyb https://archive.ph/hKfyb
- bmitc 4y agoSome of big tech seems to not have a hot job market and that they're desperate. The number of emails I get from Amazon and Facebook is crazy. And the fact that they're emailing me tells me that that they are indeed desperate.
- akhmatova 4y agoAnd the fact that they're emailing me tells me that that they are indeed desperate. Or simply indicative of the fact that they can, and could not begin to care a whit whom they might piss or cheese off by doing so. Just like every other recruiter out there.
- smeagull 4y agoTheir problem is they have too much churn and are big enough that they have trouble finding people that they would accept that haven't already been through the experience of working there.
- Cookingboy 4y ago>The number of emails I get from Amazon and Facebook is crazy. Well that's the thing, those recruiters will keep emailing you desperately until the morning of the layoffs are announced. Facebook's hiring freeze was so sudden that it even caught their own recruiters off guard. Also what we are seeing is the early stage of hiring cooling. Some companies will start with "soft" hiring freezes, which means no new headcounts but the ones that's already opened will still be kept open, along with back hire for attritions. In those cases recruiters would still be reaching out. Then there is the "hard" hiring freeze, which means open head counts are taking away, sometimes even impacting people already in the interview process. That's what FB did for all their recent openings under a certain level (<M2 and <E6). So yeah, recruiting emails alone don't really tell the whole story.
- bmitc 4y agoThat's a good point. Upon reflection, I don't think I've actually received a relatively recent email from Facebook, so that must have been due to the hiring freeze you mention. But Amazon keeps plugging away. They require a 90-minute test before even talking to them, so good luck to them.
- synergy20 4y agoAfter year 2000 the internet bubble, quite some CS departments in top universities can not even find enough applicants and students. nowadays, it's extremely challenging to get into a top CS program, for those enrolled, get a well-paid intern or full time job seems to be fairly easy these days. I'd say it's the best time for software developers in the last 2 decades. Sadly, every party has to end, it's about time.
- angarg12 4y agoI work at Amazon and we are still hiring like crazy. Last year was the worst I remember regarding attracting talent. We have 6 heads open and only managed to fill 1. A selected few companies have deep pockets and enough cash to weather a recession. They might take this chance to snatch away as many qualified people as possible and come through the other end with a competitive advantage. On the other end of the spectrum many companies are slowly failing. Layoffs and hiring freezes are even news anymore. So yes, inertia is big but the tide is changing. I predict that when Big Tech fill their bellies the will stop competing so fiercely and the market will cool down for real. In the meanwhile, if you wanted to join big co, now it's your best chance.
- turtledove 4y agoWhen I worked in AWS the mantra was we aim to fill more seats than there are engineers graduating every year, indefinitely. Amazon needs engineers desperately. It's too bad for them that their mistreatment of their workforce is finally catching up with them. The way they skimped on wages, benefits, work life balance, accommodations, vacation, etc everywhere they can AND they put in draconian IP and moonlighting restrictions... It's no surprise they are having trouble hiring. Anyone considering a role as an engineer at Amazon... Do your research.
- akhmatova 4y agoWe aim to fill more seats than there are engineers graduating every year, indefinitely. A quick bit of head arithmetic (comparing with the number of 65,000 graduates in CS per year) indicates that this can't possibly be true for the present -- let alone at any moment in the past. And is more likely off by an order of magnitude (and perhaps then some). So you can add to your list of Amazon's self-blocking behaviors: "They way they tout mantras and slogans, without ever bothering to check if they have anything to do with reality ..."
- turtledove 4y agoThe numbers I had suggested approximately 17,000 tech jobs per quarter. So, not too far off from your number. I was also told to expect 30 to 40 percent attrition every year, as engineers burnt out.
- jgalt212 4y agoIf Amazon is such a terrible place how do they manage to hire many people? Are all the other places more terrible?
- schwartzworld 4y agoThey pay well, and being a former Amazon engineer looks good on a resume.
- cyberlurker 4y agoFrom speaking to Amazon engineers, it also seems like the experience is heavily dependent on which team you're on, like most workplaces. I don’t think it is a terrible place to work. The warehouses sound brutal though.
- krageon 4y ago> Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no. Thoroughly uninteresting question too, if you work in the space you know this is not the case and if you don't what is the point of worrying about it?