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Finland will seek NATO membership immediately

840 points by fsloth 4y ago

serpix 4y ago
As a Finnish citizen, reservist this has been a very emotional spring. Both of my grandfathers were in the war with Russia. Both of my grandmothers had to leave and burn their homes in the areas annexed by Russia. Twice. I am 100% for Nato.
- dmos62 4y ago
  Why did your family burn its homes as they were leaving? To deny it to Russian (or collaborator) settlers?
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - jacquesm 4y ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scorched_earth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scorched_earth
- mynameishere 4y ago
  Yeah too bad the continuation war didn't work out for you.
  - CRConrad 4y ago
    > Yeah too bad the continuation war didn't work out for you. Oh, it pretty much did. Sure, there was a Carelia Oblast or something up in the Northwest of the Russian Socialist Soviet Republic -- but never a Finnish Socialist Soviet Republic.
  - ParksNet 4y ago
    Because Finland wasn't willing to push all the way to Murmansk to cut off Lend Lease supplies.
- nevermindiguess 4y ago
  This is great. You will enjoy fighting Russia then. Although they never had any intention to fight you country just until you government was about to give it a reason now. But I respect your right to self determine your future - no matter how foolish.
  - dieortin 4y ago
    They never have any intention to fight any country, right until the moment they invade it and reduce entire cities to rubble.
fsloth 4y ago
There was some discussion on plausible NATO membership of Finland and Sweden. At that point the disucssion was based on guestimates from media. But now it's official. This is not the NATO membership application, but a statement from the political leadership in Finland that they support and suggest parliament proceeds with the application process with maximum urgency. The President and Prime Minister of Finland have published their position on NATO membership. This more or less seals Finland joining NATO. In Finnish system, the Prime Minister has most political power but president is the head of foreign policy. Their common statement was the required signal for the parliament to proceed with the process. Translation: During the spring, there has been an important discussion about Finland's possible NATO membership. Time has been needed for domestic position formation both in Parliament and in society as a whole. Time has been needed for close international contacts with both NATO and its member countries, as well as with Sweden. We have wanted to give the debate the space it needs. Now that the time for decision-making is approaching, we also state our own common positions for the information of parliamentary groups and parties. NATO membership would strengthen Finland's security. As a member of NATO, Finland would strengthen the entire defense alliance. Finland must apply for NATO membership as a matter of urgency. We hope that the national steps still needed to reach this solution will be taken swiftly in the coming days. Sauli Niinistö The president of the Republic Sanna Marin Prime minister
- golergka 4y ago
  Putin's pan to not let NATO on Russian borders worked out great.
  - kqr 4y ago
    I mean there's that joke that the Apollo missions were the greatest scientific accomplishment by the Soviet Union.
    - ngold 4y ago
      That is rather apt. And mirroring Russian claims to disarm nazis in Ukraine and take over the government in 3 days. Only to get sanctioned into economic doom, and have Ukraine forever supplied with the teeth of all western nations. It did not work out so well. We are all rooting for spinal cancer.
koshergweilo 4y ago
I'm not surprised that it's happening but I am surprised that it's taken less than three months for this to turn from a rumor to reality
- clarionbell 4y ago
  It is my experience that wars tend to add a sense of urgency.
  - Borrible 4y ago
    Yes, but just because everybody knows, they're over by Christmas.
- CRConrad 4y ago
  Answered a similar comment by someone else here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31354470 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31354470
thinkingemote 4y ago
Has Finland significant pro-Russian politicians? Or at least pro before February 2022? I visited there a while ago and there was a feel of Russian friendliness at the least with significant independence on the streets. But that's just my feelings and I wasn't paying attention back then.
- nine_zeros 4y ago
  Maybe it was just friendliness towards Russian people? This war is entirely political. Most Russians don't seem to want to invade other countries.
  - golergka 4y ago
    > Most Russians don't seem to want to invade other countries. Most Russians that a typical HN user would encounter — English-speaking, educated, probably with skills in demand inside and outside Russia — don't. Typical Russians, on the other hand, are quite openly fascist at this point.
    - doikor 4y ago
      Don't mistake of thinking that the educated or political elite in Saint Petersburg or Moscow are not mostly in favor Russian supremacy over Ukraine. A lot of them truly do think that Ukraine is just a part of Russia and killing anyone there who thinks othewise is just fine. A lot of them look back at the Soviet or imperial times with rose tinted glasses and say "this was when Russia was at its best".
  - emteycz 4y ago
    Even the studies that assume a lot of people are lying to stay safe are saying at least 60% of Russians support the war and Putin.
  - michaelmrose 4y ago
    > Most Russians don't seem to want to invade other countries. What are you basing this on? https://www.levada.ru/en/ratings/ https://www.levada.ru/en/ratings/ This seems to show strong support for the Russian government and this analysis seems to suggest that few Russians are concerned about Russians crimes and as many as half are very supportive of horrific violence against people they see as nonhuman. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14623528.2022.2074020 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14623528.2022.2...
jitter_ 4y ago
In English https://www.presidentti.fi/en/press-release/joint-statement-by-the-president-of-the-republic-and-prime-minister-of-finland-on-finlands-nato-membership/ https://www.presidentti.fi/en/press-release/joint-statement-...
zinekeller 4y ago
Can we change the link to the official English translation? https://www.presidentti.fi/en/press-release/joint-statement-by-the-president-of-the-republic-and-prime-minister-of-finland-on-finlands-nato-membership/ https://www.presidentti.fi/en/press-release/joint-statement-...
- thematrixturtle 4y ago
  @dang ^
  - sanketpatrikar 4y ago
    @ mentions don't work here. You have to email him at hn@ycombinator.com
- fsloth 4y ago
  Agree, that would have been the better link.
Borrible 4y ago
"When we look across the border now, we see a Finn on the other side. If Finland joins NATO, we will see an enemy." Putin to a Finnish journalist in 2016 according to Finnish President Sauli Niinistö in an interview with the German magazine 'Der Spiegel' https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/finnish-president-sauli-niinistoe-on-putin-and-the-ukraine-conflict-a-bb9281d3-2cc6-49a1-87eb-199569991c79 https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/finnish-president... I guess, the russians are finnished.
- Hamuko 4y ago
  I think all countries bordering Russia at the moment see an enemy on the other side. And not being in NATO is clearly not a guarantee of not being seen as an enemy by Russia, so might as well join NATO.
- baq 4y ago
  [insert 'select all squares with finnish snipers' meme] Anyway, Putin says a lot of things. He doesn't see a friend in anyone, never has, never will. An enemy is just a small downgrade from status quo. > I guess, the russians are finnished. Da.
  - Borrible 4y ago
    Just so the audience knows what we're talking 'bout, when we're talking 'bout Finnish soldiers... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aimo_Koivunen https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aimo_Koivunen https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Unknown_Soldier_(2017_film) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Unknown_Soldier_(2017_film... I'm starting to feel sorry for russia. But it earned it. And I couldn't care less what Putin and his cronies fantasize. “We cannot negotiate with people who say what's mine is mine and what's yours is negotiable." John F. Kennedy, 25 July 1961
    - mijoharas 4y ago
      Don't forget about Simo Häyhä[0] (most sniper kills of anyone ever I believe) [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simo_H%C3%A4yh%C3%A4 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simo_H%C3%A4yh%C3%A4
noselasd 4y ago
Title is not quite right, this seems to be the President and Prime Minister recommending to the parliament that Finland should join NATO. The final decision is not made.
- fsloth 4y ago
  This is basically THE signal to start of the process. Given the majority popular support (76% !!!) and this statement from the political leadership it would be extremely unlikely parliament would not follow through. Before this was made public there might have very well been some secret discussions, and the President and Prime minister might have very well used this statement to signal "please wait". This is as green light as green gets.
  - jka 4y ago
    Very likely, although it still makes the decision to upvote a little more difficult than it should be; the current title ("Finland will seek NATO membership immediately") isn't really true (yet). From the English-language translation: "We hope that the national steps still needed to make this decision will be taken rapidly within the next few days."
    - nicce 4y ago
      Yep, it is also one type of information warfare and influencing. It gets harder and harder to present opposite opinions when there is huge pressure created with misleading titles. People think that something is already agreed on when they are not.
      - fsloth 4y ago
        My intent was not to be misleading by posting this. More context on the political situation would perhaps been relevant, but also very hard to give concisely in an understandable form since different countries work quite differently. The political situation is such that this was basically the expected "go ahead" for the parliament to formulate the official NATO application, since you have start a formal process at some point. The only party in the government that had not made it's position public was the prime ministers own party Social Democrats (SDP). It would be quite impossible for them to hold any other position than Prime Minister has. Plus - public opinion was heavily loaded for NATO (76%) already. This was not due to propaganda, but a very grass roots shift simply caused by the Russian attack to Ukraine. There are still people alive who had to abandon their childhood homes to areas ceded to Russia in WW2, and most people have veterans of that war in their family. Previous situation in Ukraine and Georgia were more "obscure" combined with seditionist movements. The attack on 24th February was an all out war. I am not sure how well versed finns are of the tactical situation, but most of the units formerly positioned on the Finnish border are now tied in Ukraine or already neutralized there, so from a tactical perspective, given Russians rabid empire building stance it has taken recently, this was an excellent window to act due to impossibility of military response.
nymalt 4y ago
Didn't Russia (last month) threaten Finland/Sweden with 'consequences' should they decide joining NATO? Wondering what would those be. Putting both countries in a new list of 'very unfriendly countries'?
- kreeben 4y ago
  Worse! The enemy list. But what are they going to do, is what I want to know. Baltic sea will soon be pretty much closed for them and they sure could start WW3 over that but would they? They don't seem to have that in them.
  - rendall 4y ago
    > Baltic sea will soon be pretty much closed for them Why would the Baltic Sea be closed to Russia? How would this be enforced?
    - baq 4y ago
      ...just look at the map?
    - kayodelycaon 4y ago
      Denmark controls access to the Baltic Sea. https://www.google.com/maps/place/Baltic+Sea/@55.685476,11.0498096,7.54z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x46f4d7d988201b2b:0xb43097ae8474cb3!8m2!3d58.487952!4d19.863281 https://www.google.com/maps/place/Baltic+Sea/@55.685476,11.0... And Estonia and Finland control access to Russia's only ports in the Baltic Sea. https://www.google.com/maps/place/Baltic+Sea/@60.5931556,25.2688527,6.63z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x46f4d7d988201b2b:0xb43097ae8474cb3!8m2!3d58.487952!4d19.863281 https://www.google.com/maps/place/Baltic+Sea/@60.5931556,25....
      - CRConrad 4y ago
        Well, Königsberg.
      - rendall 4y ago
alkonaut 4y ago
This makes the formal application next week a foregone conclusion. But, it already was. Perhaps more interesting is that it makes the swedish application almost inevitable as well, and it might happen at the same time.
- CRConrad 4y ago
  Why is Sweden always supposed to be "more interesting" than Finland? I mean, I'm a Swede and all (I only live in Finland), but this seems a bit unfair.
  - kyberias 4y ago
    I guess it can be argued that Finland joining Nato is not very surprising (has been discussed in Finland for years) and therefore not very interesting. But Sweden joining Nato this quickly would be more of a surprise and therefore much more interesting.
  - alkonaut 4y ago
    Because its less of a foregone conclusion than Finland is. Nothing else (I’d say Finland is now at 100% certainty to join and Sweden at 99%)
durnygbur 4y ago
Look at the map, the NATO doesn't have much land borders with Russia. With Finland joining... the length of land border will multiply. This will surely pose a challenge.
- formerly_proven 4y ago
  Only in a technical sense obviously, not in any way that actually matters.
  - csomar 4y ago
    St Petersburg is less than 100 miles away. But yeah most of the rest of the border is useless, given its nature.
    - naavis 4y ago
      St. Petersburg is already less than 100 miles from Estonia, which is a NATO country.
- rightbyte 4y ago
  There is much talk about Russia not wanting Finland in NATO but why would NATO want Finland in NATO with yet another expensive border to patrol. "Buffer states" work both ways.
  - andybak 4y ago
    I would argue that NATO already has to care about that border. Finland joining NATO just makes that reality easier to handle.
    - rightbyte 4y ago
      They only have to care about the Finnish border in a military fictional grand plan sense not a everyday practical sense.
formerly_proven 4y ago
Finish president: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MhLNBxpo8zY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MhLNBxpo8zY > Russia, you caused this.
ckastner 4y ago
One has to appreciate the irony that Putin's attempt to reduce the size of a hypothetical¹ border between NATO and Russia will probably result in actually doubling it. ¹Hypothetical because there was no realistic chance that Ukraine would have been allowed to join.
ssl232 4y ago
Usual caveats that I'm not a diplomat, don't have all the facts, etc etc., but this doesn't seem like a rational move for Finland or NATO. The UK just yesterday agreed to protect Finland in the event of an attack, and the UK's involvement would likely bring in many other NATO powers anyway, so arguably they're getting protection they'd otherwise have to pay for for free. And actually, officially joining NATO will have consequences, as Putin has lined out. We can't just go on ignoring that Putin exists and has demonstrated he is willing to follow through with his threats, especially when it comes to NATO expansion. I'm no fan of him nor his regime, but thinking he'll back down if we just escalate the situation a little more is fantasy. It's a fact that Russia feels threatened by having NATO on their border. It's a fact that Ukraine and Finland also share borders with Russia. It's a fact that Putin is not going to allow himself to be removed from power by the West without a fight (at this point it's a case of stay in power or get killed). Can the West not have a bit more nuance in its collective foreign policy, recognising these facts and that we're far from living in a perfect world with flowers and rainbows? The former USSR states in Eastern Europe have until now (or until the early 2000s NATO expansion at least) served as a half-decent buffer zone between the West and Russia, and it's served as a relatively stable diplomatic saddle point in keeping the peace. EDIT: sigh, are we really just reddit these days, using downvotes to express disagreement? I'm not going to change my mind based on downvotes. Comment to tell me how I'm wrong.
- phoe-krk 4y ago
  > The former USSR states in Eastern Europe have until now (or until the early 2000s NATO expansion at least) served as a half-decent buffer zone between the West and Russia, and we've had peace. I think you should go and tell Ukrainian people that their country is a buffer zone meant to act as a burnt ground, and they are not allowed to work towards joining the alliances and economic systems that they want to join in order to better their livelihoods and stop facing the former-USSR-level of poverty. Same stuff with regards to the Finnish and Swedish people and their current will to join NATO in order to defend against an unpredictable old man with a grandiose idea of reviving the old USSR. Believe me, going there and speaking directly will work better than commenting on HN. EDIT: yes, I downvoted, and here's my share of a comment.
omega3 4y ago
Let's hope that Sweden will also follow suit.
- occz 4y ago
  News reports claim insiders are saying they will as well: https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/planen-skicka-in-en-ansokan-pa-mandag/ https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/planen-skicka-in-en-ansokan...
- jacquesm 4y ago
  They more or less have to, the chances of Sweden becoming the next target for Putins belligerence have just gone up by 50%. It's the only country left that he can attack without immediate repercussions from NATO, though I suspect that even without NATO membership the EU would react very strongly to any attempt to make a mess in Sweden.
  - justin66 4y ago
    > It's the only country left that he can attack without immediate repercussions from NATO Moldova?
    - jacquesm 4y ago
      Already done... sadly. https://kyivindependent.com/national/transnistria-becomes-potential-hotspot-in-russias-war/ https://kyivindependent.com/national/transnistria-becomes-po...
- hugg 4y ago
  I hope not. To me it seems very unnecessary (please hear me out), first of all, it seems to be the common idea that Russia is losing the war, has a weak military, cannot invade another country successfully, but at the same time, we should be afraid of them? I've heard the argument that it's the nukes that we should be afraid of, but does joining NATO really mean that they will surely not use them? I also assume that if they did use the nukes, they would target NATO countries anyway. Don't get me wrong I do not support the war started by Russia AT ALL
Ciantic 4y ago
For some background, in 1990s Russian president Boris Yeltsin said to Finns, you never need to fear again. That fear came back when war started, but it became also political before the war. On December 2021 Putin stated that Finland & Sweden should not join NATO. Finnish President talked to him and noticed a change in Putin, that he was serious. Invasion of Ukraine had not started in December 2021 yet, but it became urgent issue for Finnish President as it was seen that Finnish & Swedish NATO membership was being tied to Putin's war rhetoric at the time. Then came Finnish president's New Years remarks which was seen as a serious even in neighboring Sweden. It's notable though that in Finland politicians have used wording "Nato-option" for decades, this conditioned the public to know what to expect if things turn sour. In Sweden NATO membership is a bit more difficult, because they didn't have such wording. In Finland decision to joining NATO was mostly driven by sudden opinion change when war started. This opinion change was so radical that government didn't need to campaign for NATO, leadership could just focus on getting support from NATO members. Finnish and Swedish government have already negotiated with most of the NATO members so the application phase shouldn't be too hard. Before war only ~20% favor, ~50-60% against 25.2. 53% in favor, 28% against 11.3. 62% in favor, 16% against 6.5. 76% in favor 12% against See polling data from here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finland%E2%80%93NATO_relations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finland%E2%80%93NATO_relations
- gpderetta 4y ago
  I thought that Sweden and, primarily, Finland joining NATO was a foregone conclusion the moment Russia invaded.
tpmx 4y ago
Timeline (from Swedish press yesterday - Omni): Today, May 12: Finnish president Niinistö presents his view on the NATO issue. Friday, May 13: A new Swedish security policy analysis is presented in parliament. All 8 parties represented there have collaborated on this. Saturday, May 14: Heads of the Finnish Social Democratic Party meet and decide on the NATO issue. Swedish and Finnish FMs join a NATO meeting in Berlin. Sunday, May 15: Heads of the Swedish Social Democratic Party meet and decide on the NATO issue. Tuesday/Wednesday, May 17/18: Finnish President Niinistö visits Stockholm.
- wolverine876 4y ago
  > All 8 parties represented there have collaborated on this. Imagine a country where one major party doesn't sell itself by obstructing everything.
  - toxik 4y ago
    To be fair, there is no partisan issues in the US over helping Ukraine either. People unite against a common enemy -- it's like that old wisdom, the worst thing to happen to the US was winning the cold war.
    - VictorPath 4y ago
      That was why Victoria Nuland was in Euromaidan Square stirring up this new cold war.
      - finiteseries 4y ago
        The Cold War involved competing blocs of military & economic peers fighting over the alignment of uninvolved nations, it isn’t just a fancy laymen word for proxy or general US - USSR remnant conflict. This is not a world wide conflict involving superpowers with the ability to project power (hard/soft) globally, it’s at best a regional power struggle involving regional powers. You can make a case this is the American dagger to Russia’s future aspirations beyond regional powerdom, but peers, and blocs, and cold war there is not.
throwaway4good 4y ago
Kaliningrad is going to be squeezed ...
- ur-whale 4y ago
  >Kaliningrad is going to be squeezed ... I assume you mean Königsberg?
havkom 4y ago
Probably together with Sweden, possibly on monday.
- john567 4y ago
  According to Swedish newspaper Expressen, this is happening on Monday. I guess it's for the best. I've not really held a position on NATO but the whole point of the alliance is to not allow for the kind of war that is taking place in Ukraine. I hope this leads to the best possible outcome for all.
temptemptemp111 4y ago
867-5309 4y ago
politics tramples intellectual curiosity
cycomanic 4y ago
I'm generally quite critical of NATO, but I would argue that once Putin threatened consequences if Finland or Sweden join NATO he pretty much forced their hands. Despite the skepticism towards NATO in both countries and "pride of neutrality" (for lack of a better term) in Sweden in particular, there is an even stronger wariness toward Russia, and you really don't want to yield to the bullying, because were does it end?
- olodus 4y ago
  Yeah as a Swede I am somewhat sceptical to NATO as well. I am particularly sceptical of Turkey being a member (because of how undemocratic that country has become). I would probably have preferred a deeper military collaboration between Finland and Sweden (and the rest of the nordic countries) but since that to some degree already is the case today I can see why people would argue that isn't enough. With that said I do understand NATO as a stability-bringing and mostly peace creating org so I am not 100% against joining. As long as we are not brought into any pro-active wars and NATO keeps being the effective "keep Russia from militaily f---ing with you"-prevention it currently is I would be OK with being a member.
  - cycomanic 4y ago
    I pretty much feel exactly the same as you about NATO membership.
oscarfr 4y ago
Russia made the best move to get Finland and Sweden to join NATO. Did NATO hire Putin? It almost seems like some sort of reverse psychology thing… Russia saying "We forbid you to join NATO" is one of few things that would get these countries to join NATO. "Don't tell us what to do!" What is Putin's play?
- soyyo 4y ago
  >>What is Putin's play? Why it has to be Putin's play? A lot of people seem to take for granted that Putin knows what he is doing and has a long play with an eventual win. History is full of leaders making terrible mistakes that eventually put the last nail in their coffins, I don't understand why some think that the only possible option is that there must be something that we are missing because Putin is so smart and has so much control that this can't simply be a huge fail on his part
- jacquesm 4y ago
  There is no play. Just a long series of miscalculations.
- rodgerd 4y ago
  > What is Putin's play? He's been very clear: before the second Ukraine invasion he criticised Lenin for allowing the SSRs to exist and for accepting the loss of Imperial Russia by e.g. accepting Finnish independence. His ambition is to restore Russia to (at least) its pre World War I borders, which would involve the obliteration of nations such as Ukraine and Finland. Up until now he has zero push back on the butcheries in Chechnya, little pushback on previous atrocities in Ukraine or Syria or shooting down civilian airliners, and he no doubt expected the same this time around.
refurb 4y ago
Anyone see any resemblance to the defense treaties of WW1?
- tyleo 4y ago
  Not quite. My understanding of WW1 is that the defense treaties were like multiple nets that all made enemies of each other come wartime. Today it seems that NATO is one big net and Russia is more or less an isolated node with no seriously powerful country to call to for help.
  - im3w1l 4y ago
    Wouldn't surprise me if Russia had a secret treaty with China.
    - refurb 4y ago
      There was an interesting video posted on social media of a military fighter plane that crash in China. Two people ejected and some farmer took video of the two of them. One was Chinese and told him to stop filming, the other Russian.
    - tyleo 4y ago
      Potentially but it’s interesting to consider whether China would honor it. Thinking about it practically I don’t know what benefit they’d get from helping Russia in a full fledged war. Seems unlikely Russia would win and in the worst case - if nukes start flying - all the better to not be involved.
- doikor 4y ago
  Not really as there basically is only one big defense treaty in the form of NATO. For it to be similar there would have to be 2 or 3 defense treaties of roughly the same size/strength which Russia does not come anywhere close to.
  - refurb 4y ago
parenthesis 4y ago
The stronger Russia tries to blow the cloak of NATO away from its borders, the tighter its neighbours will seek wrap themselves in NATO. (Aesop's fable of The North Wind and the Sun.)
ta123456789 4y ago
The polls in Finland showing > 50% support at the start of the war, and now even > 70% support for NATO. So this has seemed inevitable for almost two months. Any other choice would have been political suicide for the leading party SDP, and probably would have resulted in a new election. Whether it is the right choice I am not yet convinced, but basically it is now or never if Finland wants to join. Later it would be impossible to join.
Cloudef 4y ago
Here hoping I won't be called to war now ...
Grustaf 4y ago
Putin invades Ukraine to prevent it from joining NATO, so Finland decides to apply to joining NATO. That doesn't seem to improve their national security.
user3939382 4y ago
They should have a referendum and ask the Finish people if this is what they want. It makes the country a target in the event of a broad conflict.
- libertine 4y ago
  Are these type of decisions to be decided by the people? No one wants conflict, no one wants war, but sometimes people can't grasp the consequences of some decisions. Look at Brexit...
- originalvichy 4y ago
  Gallup data shows a strong upward trend. Finns are rarely partisan about matters of national defense, and we trust our elected officials that have access to classified information.
imtemplain 4y ago
kseistrup 4y ago
In English: https://www.presidentti.fi/en/press-release/joint-statement-by-the-president-of-the-republic-and-prime-minister-of-finland-on-finlands-nato-membership/ https://www.presidentti.fi/en/press-release/joint-statement-... In Swedish: https://www.presidentti.fi/sv/pressmeddelande/gemensamt-uttalande-av-republikens-president-och-statsministern-om-finlands-medlemskap-i-nato/ https://www.presidentti.fi/sv/pressmeddelande/gemensamt-utta...
supergirl 4y ago
seems like the absolute worst time to join NATO. Russia is as close to war with NATO as ever and now they decide it's a good time to join? they may find themselves at war the day after joining. Russia is way more closer to war with NATO than it was with Finland. on the other hand, they don't have much choice. Finland was not neutral, just not formally in NATO. they were anti-Russia independents. but now things got serious so they run for shelter. basically they waited until the last moment to formally join NATO, but they were always kind of aligned with NATO. same for Sweden. for example, they both sent military aid to Ukraine I believe, so it's clear they are aligned with NATO. might as well sign the paper.
- tyleo 4y ago
  To personify the problem a bit, I feel like Finland's hand is forced: Russia points guns at Ukraine and Finland and says, "Don't call for help or I will shoot you." Russia proceeds to shoot Ukraine anyways. Perhaps this is an oversimplification, countries aren't people after all, but what is Finland to do in this situation? In my opinion, Russia has deteriorated trust so completely that folks assume that the punishment for a threat will happen _even if_ a line isn't crossed.
evo_9 4y ago
The invasion of the Ukraine has done more to strengthen NATO than anything the West could have ever done on its own.
freddealmeida 4y ago
I guess we are going to ww3 stupid policies will destroy Europe
whb07 4y ago
Hurray for US citizens footing the security bill for more of the EU. If the US goes bankrupt (it already is), makes one wonder if the other countries will come to our aid and supply us with money, weapons, personnel when the time comes.
- dekerta 4y ago
  That's not how NATO works. This will not affect US taxpayers
- CRConrad 4y ago
  > Hurray for US citizens footing the security bill for more of the EU. Sigh... Here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31355478 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31355478 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31355371 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31355371 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31352661 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31352661 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31352202 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31352202
maratc 4y ago
Warning: hot take. While it is unlikely that Putin would care a bit about Sweden, this is a huge gamble on Finland's side. HUGE. This can go in one of the two directions: either Putin dislikes but somehow swallows it (the way he did with Baltic states in 2004), or he can go about preemptively wrecking Finland (the way he did with Georgia and Ukraine in 2008 and 2014 respectively). Considering Russia was very negative on a prospect of having NATO some 450 km from Moscow, the prospect of having them 150 km from St. Petersburg might aggravate Putin even more. And St. Petersburg is not just another Russian city — it's Putin's home city. Starting with Mannerheim, Finland had a wise policy for the last 70 years, where they largely refrained from taking sides on the USSR/West thingy, and the Soviets let them be. Joining NATO is a complete reversal of that policy, and it is an extremely dangerous gamble at an extremely dangerous time.
- tyleo 4y ago
  I think folks wanted to maintain that wise policy. Even in the days leading up to the war Ukraine dismissed the fact that Russia would attack as fear mongering. The problem is that Russia has now proven themselves an untrustable party. "Keep the status quo and we won't attack," they say but now they are attacking Ukraine anyways. What do you do if you are Finland? You want to make peace, you want to maintain nonaggression and neutrality but another neutral party doing the same meets devastation before your very eyes. Seems better in this situation to get whatever protection you can.
  - maratc 4y ago
    > "Keep the status quo and we won't attack," they say but now they are attacking Ukraine anyways. This does not fit my understanding. In my understanding, Ukraine doubles down on NATO membership, and Russia attacks. Am I missing something? Somewhere between 2014 and 2022 Ukraine denounced its NATO aspirations? In no way I condone the Russian attack, but I also can't see how they're "untrustable".
    - watwut 4y ago
      In what way did Ukraine doubled down? What exact step made it more likely?
Bud 4y ago
As part of its application, Finland will agree to donate 5.7 billion umlauts to other NATO nations each year, excluding Germany, which already has enough.
jl2718 4y ago
Regimes change. I expect soon. Then what? Are we still locked into opposition with the Russian people? Given a blank slate, what relationship do we want between NATO/EU countries and Russia?
- GolDDranks 4y ago
  As a Finn, I sincerely wish we could come along with our Russian neighbors, but Russia need to change for that to happen. Democracy, human rights and the concepts freedom of speech, freedom of press and a concept of transparent, rule-based society with little corruption are the keywords, but they haven't truly taken root in the Russian culture and system of thought.
  - jl2718 4y ago
    Assuming the regime falls and leaves a power vacuum, what do you think the best way to help the people toward that is? My greatest concern is what comes next. The current regime is a kleptocracy, which is awful for the people, but easy to predict and control and siphon cheap natural resources from. They stay in power partly by fear of EU/NATO, but it’s questionable support. Once the kleptocracy is gone, EU/NATO can either embrace Russia or maintain the current stance against them. Embracing Russia will diminish EU/NATO power and purpose. Maintaining the current stance will strengthen the alliance against them, while pushing the country toward extreme nationalism in a new regime with nothing to lose and a lot to prove. There will not be a clear decision point to switch course; it will either be gradual de-escalation on both sides, or gradual strengthening.
    - GolDDranks 4y ago
      That sounds like a super hard problem, because USSR already collapsed once, and stuff seemed like it was going to a better direction, but in the end we got Putin. Also, it's in interests of China to keep a some kind of power balance, so at least I think that EU/NATO shouldn't think the fate of Russia as "not my problem", or else China might do some opportunistic power plays.
0x737368 4y ago
Wow, some real hot takes in here. It's particularly funny that commenters here mention what happened in Georgia and Ukraine as reasons for Finland joining NATO, when it's exactly those countries cosying up to NATO/the West at Russia's security what lead to the conflicts. Goes to show how people will happily swallow the media narrative without thinking about the big picture.
- GolDDranks 4y ago
  As a Finn (so I happen to know _my_ reasons for why I support joining NATO perfectly well), I'm curious: how do you perceive the media narrative to be biased or wrong?
  - 0x737368 4y ago
    It's a vague question but an appropriately vague answer to that is media narrative is not to inform you of what's happening but to make you think the way the people who control those media channels want you to think - you can only form your opinions from what you see. But in this case the media narrative is very much "this why we need everyone to join NATO/be West-aligned" whereas it's exactly the expansion of NATO that has lead to these conflicts. As much as we'd all like for everyone to do what they want, in reality you need to consider the position of your neighbours especially if they have power. For an alternative example - see how USA reacted to Cuba becoming communist aligned, very much pot calling the kettle black, no? ;)
  - maratc 4y ago
    As a Finn, do you think it was smart of Mannerheim to join Nazi Germany against Russia? [EDIT] Appreciate the downvoting, but would appreciate an answer even more.
    - GolDDranks 4y ago
      I'm not super well versed in history, but I don't think Finland had much better options at that time, so yeah, it was kinda smart.
6346363634 4y ago
- booi 4y ago
  - 6346363634 4y ago
- 6346363634 4y ago
  [flagged]
alangibson 4y ago
The actions of a Russian leader directly resulting in their border with NATO growing by 1500 km has got to go down as one of the all time great strategic eff-ups. If this whole fiasco does result in WWIII, it'll be because of Finland joining NATO.
- vkoskiv 4y ago
  > If this whole fiasco does result in WWIII, it'll be because of Finland joining NATO. No. It will have been because fascist Russia invaded Ukraine.
  - alangibson 4y ago
    You don't need to virtue signal. It's obvious that Russian aggression started all this.
t4lkjlkjl5yt34 4y ago
[flagged]
ochoseis 4y ago
To appreciate this may require some understanding of the historical context. I’d heard of the Winter War between Finland and the USSR prior to WWII, but had no idea that: - Finland was formerly part of the Russian Empire - Finland held out, but conceded a significant chunk of land to the USSR (Karelian Isthmus, now part of Russia…sounds kind of like eastern Ukraine) - The Soviet forces were generally inept - The West essentially abandoned Finland to avoid confronting the USSR - Ever since WWII, Finland has been careful to remain neutral The “World War Two” channel on YouTube has a series of entertaining videos detailing the history starting around here: https://youtu.be/HZunUjmHTeA https://youtu.be/HZunUjmHTeA
- supergirl 4y ago
  you “accidentally” left out some events: Finland fought alongside Nazi Germany against USSR, for example in the infamous siege of Leningrad
  - ochoseis 4y ago
    Please do not [inaccurately] insinuate my intent. Pretty sure that’s obviously implied by: “The West essentially abandoned Finland to avoid confronting the USSR”
diedyesterday 4y ago
It's about time these lazy Euro countries contributed to their own security instead of just taking it for granted as always, assuming the rest of NATO members (specially the active ones) would be there for them, without themselves bearing any cost or even paying it any active attention. Similar to how those who have not vaccinated themselves enjoy the collective immunity that others (who have taken the trouble/time/cost/etc. to get vaccinated) have provided for them.
99_00 4y ago
I wonder how the Finnish people will feel the next time something like the 2011 military intervention in Libya, or the invasion of Afghanistan, or the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia takes place. On the other hand, it's clear that the Russian military is a complete joke. It's being ripped apart by militias. One has to wonder what developed nation, even a small one, with nation with trained and disciplined armed forces would do to it. To me the Ukraine situation shows the pointlessness of NATAO more than anything else. Russia is too weak to be a threat.
kkfx 4y ago
My fellow HN-ers that's simple: Finnish and Scandinavians have historical reasons to be anti-Russians and to have a more or less deep inferiority sense due to demography and resources, they have choose neutrality in the past because that was their best option to remain in peace and prosper as much as possible, being tied mostly to UK. No UK and USA have demanded local neoliberal rulers to join or being considered not much friend anymore, and then their government, as for instance Italian Gov. choose to betray their Citizens interest for their own economical ones, choosing to apply, of course without any public debate and vote. IF their Citizens decide that's time to remember what Democracy means they'll organize a quick massive general strike ordering immediate resignation of their own government to go to vote and after with a new government starting the debate, if not they'll get the consequences and we from the EU as well since so far not so many Citizens start acting to going out of NATO... Oh, no, I'm not pro-Putin, I'm a Citizen who came from a WWII Partisans family and so I recognize and can't support nor original nazis nor new one, no dictators included so while I can't support Putin being a dictator who also choose religion as a way to stay in power, I can't support as well and more (since they are here, not in another country) anglo-neoliberals and their subjects, local neoliberals traitors of their own people and countries for the sake of someone else. I understand that neoliberals need a war to remain in power and committing a mass murder crime to make their new dream society, a copy of actual Chines one with minor variations (choosing suite&tie + black color instead of uniform and red color) but us the people need the exact opposite and seeing actual effect of propaganda... Well... I understand that due to the extreme vulnerability of many I can't live myself in a democracy, a thing that behind anger push me toward not really nice sentiments and considerations about old-classic government model with a deeply divided population and the historic outcome of such division.

840 points by fsloth 4y ago

As a Finnish citizen, reservist this has been a very emotional spring. Both of my grandfathers were in the war with Russia. Both of my grandmothers had to leave and burn their homes in the areas annexed by Russia. Twice. I am 100% for Nato.

dmos62 4y ago
Why did your family burn its homes as they were leaving? To deny it to Russian (or collaborator) settlers?
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- jacquesm 4y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scorched_earth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scorched_earth
mynameishere 4y ago
Yeah too bad the continuation war didn't work out for you.
- CRConrad 4y ago
  > Yeah too bad the continuation war didn't work out for you. Oh, it pretty much did. Sure, there was a Carelia Oblast or something up in the Northwest of the Russian Socialist Soviet Republic -- but never a Finnish Socialist Soviet Republic.
- ParksNet 4y ago
  Because Finland wasn't willing to push all the way to Murmansk to cut off Lend Lease supplies.
nevermindiguess 4y ago
This is great. You will enjoy fighting Russia then. Although they never had any intention to fight you country just until you government was about to give it a reason now. But I respect your right to self determine your future - no matter how foolish.
- dieortin 4y ago
  They never have any intention to fight any country, right until the moment they invade it and reduce entire cities to rubble.

fsloth 4y ago

There was some discussion on plausible NATO membership of Finland and Sweden. At that point the disucssion was based on guestimates from media. But now it's official. This is not the NATO membership application, but a statement from the political leadership in Finland that they support and suggest parliament proceeds with the application process with maximum urgency. The President and Prime Minister of Finland have published their position on NATO membership. This more or less seals Finland joining NATO. In Finnish system, the Prime Minister has most political power but president is the head of foreign policy. Their common statement was the required signal for the parliament to proceed with the process. Translation: During the spring, there has been an important discussion about Finland's possible NATO membership. Time has been needed for domestic position formation both in Parliament and in society as a whole. Time has been needed for close international contacts with both NATO and its member countries, as well as with Sweden. We have wanted to give the debate the space it needs. Now that the time for decision-making is approaching, we also state our own common positions for the information of parliamentary groups and parties. NATO membership would strengthen Finland's security. As a member of NATO, Finland would strengthen the entire defense alliance. Finland must apply for NATO membership as a matter of urgency. We hope that the national steps still needed to reach this solution will be taken swiftly in the coming days. Sauli Niinistö The president of the Republic Sanna Marin Prime minister

golergka 4y ago
Putin's pan to not let NATO on Russian borders worked out great.
- kqr 4y ago
  I mean there's that joke that the Apollo missions were the greatest scientific accomplishment by the Soviet Union.
  - ngold 4y ago
    That is rather apt. And mirroring Russian claims to disarm nazis in Ukraine and take over the government in 3 days. Only to get sanctioned into economic doom, and have Ukraine forever supplied with the teeth of all western nations. It did not work out so well. We are all rooting for spinal cancer.

koshergweilo 4y ago

I'm not surprised that it's happening but I am surprised that it's taken less than three months for this to turn from a rumor to reality

clarionbell 4y ago
It is my experience that wars tend to add a sense of urgency.
- Borrible 4y ago
  Yes, but just because everybody knows, they're over by Christmas.
CRConrad 4y ago
Answered a similar comment by someone else here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31354470 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31354470

thinkingemote 4y ago

Has Finland significant pro-Russian politicians? Or at least pro before February 2022? I visited there a while ago and there was a feel of Russian friendliness at the least with significant independence on the streets. But that's just my feelings and I wasn't paying attention back then.

nine_zeros 4y ago
Maybe it was just friendliness towards Russian people? This war is entirely political. Most Russians don't seem to want to invade other countries.
- golergka 4y ago
  > Most Russians don't seem to want to invade other countries. Most Russians that a typical HN user would encounter — English-speaking, educated, probably with skills in demand inside and outside Russia — don't. Typical Russians, on the other hand, are quite openly fascist at this point.
  - doikor 4y ago
    Don't mistake of thinking that the educated or political elite in Saint Petersburg or Moscow are not mostly in favor Russian supremacy over Ukraine. A lot of them truly do think that Ukraine is just a part of Russia and killing anyone there who thinks othewise is just fine. A lot of them look back at the Soviet or imperial times with rose tinted glasses and say "this was when Russia was at its best".
- emteycz 4y ago
  Even the studies that assume a lot of people are lying to stay safe are saying at least 60% of Russians support the war and Putin.
- michaelmrose 4y ago
  > Most Russians don't seem to want to invade other countries. What are you basing this on? https://www.levada.ru/en/ratings/ https://www.levada.ru/en/ratings/ This seems to show strong support for the Russian government and this analysis seems to suggest that few Russians are concerned about Russians crimes and as many as half are very supportive of horrific violence against people they see as nonhuman. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14623528.2022.2074020 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14623528.2022.2...

jitter_ 4y ago

In English https://www.presidentti.fi/en/press-release/joint-statement-by-the-president-of-the-republic-and-prime-minister-of-finland-on-finlands-nato-membership/ https://www.presidentti.fi/en/press-release/joint-statement-...

zinekeller 4y ago

Can we change the link to the official English translation? https://www.presidentti.fi/en/press-release/joint-statement-by-the-president-of-the-republic-and-prime-minister-of-finland-on-finlands-nato-membership/ https://www.presidentti.fi/en/press-release/joint-statement-...

thematrixturtle 4y ago
@dang ^
- sanketpatrikar 4y ago
  @ mentions don't work here. You have to email him at hn@ycombinator.com
fsloth 4y ago
Agree, that would have been the better link.

Borrible 4y ago

"When we look across the border now, we see a Finn on the other side. If Finland joins NATO, we will see an enemy." Putin to a Finnish journalist in 2016 according to Finnish President Sauli Niinistö in an interview with the German magazine 'Der Spiegel' https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/finnish-president-sauli-niinistoe-on-putin-and-the-ukraine-conflict-a-bb9281d3-2cc6-49a1-87eb-199569991c79 https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/finnish-president... I guess, the russians are finnished.

Hamuko 4y ago
I think all countries bordering Russia at the moment see an enemy on the other side. And not being in NATO is clearly not a guarantee of not being seen as an enemy by Russia, so might as well join NATO.
baq 4y ago
[insert 'select all squares with finnish snipers' meme] Anyway, Putin says a lot of things. He doesn't see a friend in anyone, never has, never will. An enemy is just a small downgrade from status quo. > I guess, the russians are finnished. Da.
- Borrible 4y ago
  Just so the audience knows what we're talking 'bout, when we're talking 'bout Finnish soldiers... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aimo_Koivunen https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aimo_Koivunen https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Unknown_Soldier_(2017_film) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Unknown_Soldier_(2017_film... I'm starting to feel sorry for russia. But it earned it. And I couldn't care less what Putin and his cronies fantasize. “We cannot negotiate with people who say what's mine is mine and what's yours is negotiable." John F. Kennedy, 25 July 1961
  - mijoharas 4y ago
    Don't forget about Simo Häyhä[0] (most sniper kills of anyone ever I believe) [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simo_H%C3%A4yh%C3%A4 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simo_H%C3%A4yh%C3%A4

noselasd 4y ago

Title is not quite right, this seems to be the President and Prime Minister recommending to the parliament that Finland should join NATO. The final decision is not made.

fsloth 4y ago
This is basically THE signal to start of the process. Given the majority popular support (76% !!!) and this statement from the political leadership it would be extremely unlikely parliament would not follow through. Before this was made public there might have very well been some secret discussions, and the President and Prime minister might have very well used this statement to signal "please wait". This is as green light as green gets.
- jka 4y ago
  Very likely, although it still makes the decision to upvote a little more difficult than it should be; the current title ("Finland will seek NATO membership immediately") isn't really true (yet). From the English-language translation: "We hope that the national steps still needed to make this decision will be taken rapidly within the next few days."
  - nicce 4y ago
    Yep, it is also one type of information warfare and influencing. It gets harder and harder to present opposite opinions when there is huge pressure created with misleading titles. People think that something is already agreed on when they are not.
    - fsloth 4y ago
      My intent was not to be misleading by posting this. More context on the political situation would perhaps been relevant, but also very hard to give concisely in an understandable form since different countries work quite differently. The political situation is such that this was basically the expected "go ahead" for the parliament to formulate the official NATO application, since you have start a formal process at some point. The only party in the government that had not made it's position public was the prime ministers own party Social Democrats (SDP). It would be quite impossible for them to hold any other position than Prime Minister has. Plus - public opinion was heavily loaded for NATO (76%) already. This was not due to propaganda, but a very grass roots shift simply caused by the Russian attack to Ukraine. There are still people alive who had to abandon their childhood homes to areas ceded to Russia in WW2, and most people have veterans of that war in their family. Previous situation in Ukraine and Georgia were more "obscure" combined with seditionist movements. The attack on 24th February was an all out war. I am not sure how well versed finns are of the tactical situation, but most of the units formerly positioned on the Finnish border are now tied in Ukraine or already neutralized there, so from a tactical perspective, given Russians rabid empire building stance it has taken recently, this was an excellent window to act due to impossibility of military response.

nymalt 4y ago

Didn't Russia (last month) threaten Finland/Sweden with 'consequences' should they decide joining NATO? Wondering what would those be. Putting both countries in a new list of 'very unfriendly countries'?

kreeben 4y ago
Worse! The enemy list. But what are they going to do, is what I want to know. Baltic sea will soon be pretty much closed for them and they sure could start WW3 over that but would they? They don't seem to have that in them.
- rendall 4y ago
  > Baltic sea will soon be pretty much closed for them Why would the Baltic Sea be closed to Russia? How would this be enforced?
  - baq 4y ago
    ...just look at the map?
  - kayodelycaon 4y ago
    Denmark controls access to the Baltic Sea. https://www.google.com/maps/place/Baltic+Sea/@55.685476,11.0498096,7.54z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x46f4d7d988201b2b:0xb43097ae8474cb3!8m2!3d58.487952!4d19.863281 https://www.google.com/maps/place/Baltic+Sea/@55.685476,11.0... And Estonia and Finland control access to Russia's only ports in the Baltic Sea. https://www.google.com/maps/place/Baltic+Sea/@60.5931556,25.2688527,6.63z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x46f4d7d988201b2b:0xb43097ae8474cb3!8m2!3d58.487952!4d19.863281 https://www.google.com/maps/place/Baltic+Sea/@60.5931556,25....
    - CRConrad 4y ago
      Well, Königsberg.
    - rendall 4y ago

alkonaut 4y ago

This makes the formal application next week a foregone conclusion. But, it already was. Perhaps more interesting is that it makes the swedish application almost inevitable as well, and it might happen at the same time.

CRConrad 4y ago
Why is Sweden always supposed to be "more interesting" than Finland? I mean, I'm a Swede and all (I only live in Finland), but this seems a bit unfair.
- kyberias 4y ago
  I guess it can be argued that Finland joining Nato is not very surprising (has been discussed in Finland for years) and therefore not very interesting. But Sweden joining Nato this quickly would be more of a surprise and therefore much more interesting.
- alkonaut 4y ago
  Because its less of a foregone conclusion than Finland is. Nothing else (I’d say Finland is now at 100% certainty to join and Sweden at 99%)

durnygbur 4y ago

Look at the map, the NATO doesn't have much land borders with Russia. With Finland joining... the length of land border will multiply. This will surely pose a challenge.

formerly_proven 4y ago
Only in a technical sense obviously, not in any way that actually matters.
- csomar 4y ago
  St Petersburg is less than 100 miles away. But yeah most of the rest of the border is useless, given its nature.
  - naavis 4y ago
    St. Petersburg is already less than 100 miles from Estonia, which is a NATO country.
rightbyte 4y ago
There is much talk about Russia not wanting Finland in NATO but why would NATO want Finland in NATO with yet another expensive border to patrol. "Buffer states" work both ways.
- andybak 4y ago
  I would argue that NATO already has to care about that border. Finland joining NATO just makes that reality easier to handle.
  - rightbyte 4y ago
    They only have to care about the Finnish border in a military fictional grand plan sense not a everyday practical sense.

formerly_proven 4y ago

Finish president: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MhLNBxpo8zY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MhLNBxpo8zY > Russia, you caused this.

ckastner 4y ago

One has to appreciate the irony that Putin's attempt to reduce the size of a hypothetical¹ border between NATO and Russia will probably result in actually doubling it. ¹Hypothetical because there was no realistic chance that Ukraine would have been allowed to join.

ssl232 4y ago

Usual caveats that I'm not a diplomat, don't have all the facts, etc etc., but this doesn't seem like a rational move for Finland or NATO. The UK just yesterday agreed to protect Finland in the event of an attack, and the UK's involvement would likely bring in many other NATO powers anyway, so arguably they're getting protection they'd otherwise have to pay for for free. And actually, officially joining NATO will have consequences, as Putin has lined out. We can't just go on ignoring that Putin exists and has demonstrated he is willing to follow through with his threats, especially when it comes to NATO expansion. I'm no fan of him nor his regime, but thinking he'll back down if we just escalate the situation a little more is fantasy. It's a fact that Russia feels threatened by having NATO on their border. It's a fact that Ukraine and Finland also share borders with Russia. It's a fact that Putin is not going to allow himself to be removed from power by the West without a fight (at this point it's a case of stay in power or get killed). Can the West not have a bit more nuance in its collective foreign policy, recognising these facts and that we're far from living in a perfect world with flowers and rainbows? The former USSR states in Eastern Europe have until now (or until the early 2000s NATO expansion at least) served as a half-decent buffer zone between the West and Russia, and it's served as a relatively stable diplomatic saddle point in keeping the peace. EDIT: sigh, are we really just reddit these days, using downvotes to express disagreement? I'm not going to change my mind based on downvotes. Comment to tell me how I'm wrong.

phoe-krk 4y ago
> The former USSR states in Eastern Europe have until now (or until the early 2000s NATO expansion at least) served as a half-decent buffer zone between the West and Russia, and we've had peace. I think you should go and tell Ukrainian people that their country is a buffer zone meant to act as a burnt ground, and they are not allowed to work towards joining the alliances and economic systems that they want to join in order to better their livelihoods and stop facing the former-USSR-level of poverty. Same stuff with regards to the Finnish and Swedish people and their current will to join NATO in order to defend against an unpredictable old man with a grandiose idea of reviving the old USSR. Believe me, going there and speaking directly will work better than commenting on HN. EDIT: yes, I downvoted, and here's my share of a comment.

omega3 4y ago

Let's hope that Sweden will also follow suit.

occz 4y ago
News reports claim insiders are saying they will as well: https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/planen-skicka-in-en-ansokan-pa-mandag/ https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/planen-skicka-in-en-ansokan...
jacquesm 4y ago
They more or less have to, the chances of Sweden becoming the next target for Putins belligerence have just gone up by 50%. It's the only country left that he can attack without immediate repercussions from NATO, though I suspect that even without NATO membership the EU would react very strongly to any attempt to make a mess in Sweden.
- justin66 4y ago
  > It's the only country left that he can attack without immediate repercussions from NATO Moldova?
  - jacquesm 4y ago
    Already done... sadly. https://kyivindependent.com/national/transnistria-becomes-potential-hotspot-in-russias-war/ https://kyivindependent.com/national/transnistria-becomes-po...
hugg 4y ago
I hope not. To me it seems very unnecessary (please hear me out), first of all, it seems to be the common idea that Russia is losing the war, has a weak military, cannot invade another country successfully, but at the same time, we should be afraid of them? I've heard the argument that it's the nukes that we should be afraid of, but does joining NATO really mean that they will surely not use them? I also assume that if they did use the nukes, they would target NATO countries anyway. Don't get me wrong I do not support the war started by Russia AT ALL

Ciantic 4y ago

For some background, in 1990s Russian president Boris Yeltsin said to Finns, you never need to fear again. That fear came back when war started, but it became also political before the war. On December 2021 Putin stated that Finland & Sweden should not join NATO. Finnish President talked to him and noticed a change in Putin, that he was serious. Invasion of Ukraine had not started in December 2021 yet, but it became urgent issue for Finnish President as it was seen that Finnish & Swedish NATO membership was being tied to Putin's war rhetoric at the time. Then came Finnish president's New Years remarks which was seen as a serious even in neighboring Sweden. It's notable though that in Finland politicians have used wording "Nato-option" for decades, this conditioned the public to know what to expect if things turn sour. In Sweden NATO membership is a bit more difficult, because they didn't have such wording. In Finland decision to joining NATO was mostly driven by sudden opinion change when war started. This opinion change was so radical that government didn't need to campaign for NATO, leadership could just focus on getting support from NATO members. Finnish and Swedish government have already negotiated with most of the NATO members so the application phase shouldn't be too hard. Before war only ~20% favor, ~50-60% against 25.2. 53% in favor, 28% against 11.3. 62% in favor, 16% against 6.5. 76% in favor 12% against See polling data from here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finland%E2%80%93NATO_relations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finland%E2%80%93NATO_relations

gpderetta 4y ago
I thought that Sweden and, primarily, Finland joining NATO was a foregone conclusion the moment Russia invaded.

tpmx 4y ago

Timeline (from Swedish press yesterday - Omni): Today, May 12: Finnish president Niinistö presents his view on the NATO issue. Friday, May 13: A new Swedish security policy analysis is presented in parliament. All 8 parties represented there have collaborated on this. Saturday, May 14: Heads of the Finnish Social Democratic Party meet and decide on the NATO issue. Swedish and Finnish FMs join a NATO meeting in Berlin. Sunday, May 15: Heads of the Swedish Social Democratic Party meet and decide on the NATO issue. Tuesday/Wednesday, May 17/18: Finnish President Niinistö visits Stockholm.

wolverine876 4y ago
> All 8 parties represented there have collaborated on this. Imagine a country where one major party doesn't sell itself by obstructing everything.
- toxik 4y ago
  To be fair, there is no partisan issues in the US over helping Ukraine either. People unite against a common enemy -- it's like that old wisdom, the worst thing to happen to the US was winning the cold war.
  - VictorPath 4y ago
    That was why Victoria Nuland was in Euromaidan Square stirring up this new cold war.
    - finiteseries 4y ago
      The Cold War involved competing blocs of military & economic peers fighting over the alignment of uninvolved nations, it isn’t just a fancy laymen word for proxy or general US - USSR remnant conflict. This is not a world wide conflict involving superpowers with the ability to project power (hard/soft) globally, it’s at best a regional power struggle involving regional powers. You can make a case this is the American dagger to Russia’s future aspirations beyond regional powerdom, but peers, and blocs, and cold war there is not.

throwaway4good 4y ago

Kaliningrad is going to be squeezed ...

ur-whale 4y ago
>Kaliningrad is going to be squeezed ... I assume you mean Königsberg?

havkom 4y ago

Probably together with Sweden, possibly on monday.

john567 4y ago
According to Swedish newspaper Expressen, this is happening on Monday. I guess it's for the best. I've not really held a position on NATO but the whole point of the alliance is to not allow for the kind of war that is taking place in Ukraine. I hope this leads to the best possible outcome for all.

temptemptemp111 4y ago

867-5309 4y ago

politics tramples intellectual curiosity

cycomanic 4y ago

I'm generally quite critical of NATO, but I would argue that once Putin threatened consequences if Finland or Sweden join NATO he pretty much forced their hands. Despite the skepticism towards NATO in both countries and "pride of neutrality" (for lack of a better term) in Sweden in particular, there is an even stronger wariness toward Russia, and you really don't want to yield to the bullying, because were does it end?

olodus 4y ago
Yeah as a Swede I am somewhat sceptical to NATO as well. I am particularly sceptical of Turkey being a member (because of how undemocratic that country has become). I would probably have preferred a deeper military collaboration between Finland and Sweden (and the rest of the nordic countries) but since that to some degree already is the case today I can see why people would argue that isn't enough. With that said I do understand NATO as a stability-bringing and mostly peace creating org so I am not 100% against joining. As long as we are not brought into any pro-active wars and NATO keeps being the effective "keep Russia from militaily f---ing with you"-prevention it currently is I would be OK with being a member.
- cycomanic 4y ago
  I pretty much feel exactly the same as you about NATO membership.

oscarfr 4y ago

Russia made the best move to get Finland and Sweden to join NATO. Did NATO hire Putin? It almost seems like some sort of reverse psychology thing… Russia saying "We forbid you to join NATO" is one of few things that would get these countries to join NATO. "Don't tell us what to do!" What is Putin's play?

soyyo 4y ago
>>What is Putin's play? Why it has to be Putin's play? A lot of people seem to take for granted that Putin knows what he is doing and has a long play with an eventual win. History is full of leaders making terrible mistakes that eventually put the last nail in their coffins, I don't understand why some think that the only possible option is that there must be something that we are missing because Putin is so smart and has so much control that this can't simply be a huge fail on his part
jacquesm 4y ago
There is no play. Just a long series of miscalculations.
rodgerd 4y ago
> What is Putin's play? He's been very clear: before the second Ukraine invasion he criticised Lenin for allowing the SSRs to exist and for accepting the loss of Imperial Russia by e.g. accepting Finnish independence. His ambition is to restore Russia to (at least) its pre World War I borders, which would involve the obliteration of nations such as Ukraine and Finland. Up until now he has zero push back on the butcheries in Chechnya, little pushback on previous atrocities in Ukraine or Syria or shooting down civilian airliners, and he no doubt expected the same this time around.

refurb 4y ago

Anyone see any resemblance to the defense treaties of WW1?

tyleo 4y ago
Not quite. My understanding of WW1 is that the defense treaties were like multiple nets that all made enemies of each other come wartime. Today it seems that NATO is one big net and Russia is more or less an isolated node with no seriously powerful country to call to for help.
- im3w1l 4y ago
  Wouldn't surprise me if Russia had a secret treaty with China.
  - refurb 4y ago
    There was an interesting video posted on social media of a military fighter plane that crash in China. Two people ejected and some farmer took video of the two of them. One was Chinese and told him to stop filming, the other Russian.
  - tyleo 4y ago
    Potentially but it’s interesting to consider whether China would honor it. Thinking about it practically I don’t know what benefit they’d get from helping Russia in a full fledged war. Seems unlikely Russia would win and in the worst case - if nukes start flying - all the better to not be involved.
doikor 4y ago
Not really as there basically is only one big defense treaty in the form of NATO. For it to be similar there would have to be 2 or 3 defense treaties of roughly the same size/strength which Russia does not come anywhere close to.
- refurb 4y ago

parenthesis 4y ago

The stronger Russia tries to blow the cloak of NATO away from its borders, the tighter its neighbours will seek wrap themselves in NATO. (Aesop's fable of The North Wind and the Sun.)

ta123456789 4y ago

The polls in Finland showing > 50% support at the start of the war, and now even > 70% support for NATO. So this has seemed inevitable for almost two months. Any other choice would have been political suicide for the leading party SDP, and probably would have resulted in a new election. Whether it is the right choice I am not yet convinced, but basically it is now or never if Finland wants to join. Later it would be impossible to join.

Cloudef 4y ago

Here hoping I won't be called to war now ...

Grustaf 4y ago

Putin invades Ukraine to prevent it from joining NATO, so Finland decides to apply to joining NATO. That doesn't seem to improve their national security.

user3939382 4y ago

They should have a referendum and ask the Finish people if this is what they want. It makes the country a target in the event of a broad conflict.

libertine 4y ago
Are these type of decisions to be decided by the people? No one wants conflict, no one wants war, but sometimes people can't grasp the consequences of some decisions. Look at Brexit...
originalvichy 4y ago
Gallup data shows a strong upward trend. Finns are rarely partisan about matters of national defense, and we trust our elected officials that have access to classified information.

imtemplain 4y ago

kseistrup 4y ago

In English: https://www.presidentti.fi/en/press-release/joint-statement-by-the-president-of-the-republic-and-prime-minister-of-finland-on-finlands-nato-membership/ https://www.presidentti.fi/en/press-release/joint-statement-... In Swedish: https://www.presidentti.fi/sv/pressmeddelande/gemensamt-uttalande-av-republikens-president-och-statsministern-om-finlands-medlemskap-i-nato/ https://www.presidentti.fi/sv/pressmeddelande/gemensamt-utta...

supergirl 4y ago

seems like the absolute worst time to join NATO. Russia is as close to war with NATO as ever and now they decide it's a good time to join? they may find themselves at war the day after joining. Russia is way more closer to war with NATO than it was with Finland. on the other hand, they don't have much choice. Finland was not neutral, just not formally in NATO. they were anti-Russia independents. but now things got serious so they run for shelter. basically they waited until the last moment to formally join NATO, but they were always kind of aligned with NATO. same for Sweden. for example, they both sent military aid to Ukraine I believe, so it's clear they are aligned with NATO. might as well sign the paper.

tyleo 4y ago
To personify the problem a bit, I feel like Finland's hand is forced: Russia points guns at Ukraine and Finland and says, "Don't call for help or I will shoot you." Russia proceeds to shoot Ukraine anyways. Perhaps this is an oversimplification, countries aren't people after all, but what is Finland to do in this situation? In my opinion, Russia has deteriorated trust so completely that folks assume that the punishment for a threat will happen _even if_ a line isn't crossed.

evo_9 4y ago

The invasion of the Ukraine has done more to strengthen NATO than anything the West could have ever done on its own.

freddealmeida 4y ago

I guess we are going to ww3 stupid policies will destroy Europe

whb07 4y ago

Hurray for US citizens footing the security bill for more of the EU. If the US goes bankrupt (it already is), makes one wonder if the other countries will come to our aid and supply us with money, weapons, personnel when the time comes.

dekerta 4y ago
That's not how NATO works. This will not affect US taxpayers
CRConrad 4y ago
> Hurray for US citizens footing the security bill for more of the EU. Sigh... Here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31355478 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31355478 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31355371 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31355371 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31352661 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31352661 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31352202 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31352202

maratc 4y ago

Warning: hot take. While it is unlikely that Putin would care a bit about Sweden, this is a huge gamble on Finland's side. HUGE. This can go in one of the two directions: either Putin dislikes but somehow swallows it (the way he did with Baltic states in 2004), or he can go about preemptively wrecking Finland (the way he did with Georgia and Ukraine in 2008 and 2014 respectively). Considering Russia was very negative on a prospect of having NATO some 450 km from Moscow, the prospect of having them 150 km from St. Petersburg might aggravate Putin even more. And St. Petersburg is not just another Russian city — it's Putin's home city. Starting with Mannerheim, Finland had a wise policy for the last 70 years, where they largely refrained from taking sides on the USSR/West thingy, and the Soviets let them be. Joining NATO is a complete reversal of that policy, and it is an extremely dangerous gamble at an extremely dangerous time.

tyleo 4y ago
I think folks wanted to maintain that wise policy. Even in the days leading up to the war Ukraine dismissed the fact that Russia would attack as fear mongering. The problem is that Russia has now proven themselves an untrustable party. "Keep the status quo and we won't attack," they say but now they are attacking Ukraine anyways. What do you do if you are Finland? You want to make peace, you want to maintain nonaggression and neutrality but another neutral party doing the same meets devastation before your very eyes. Seems better in this situation to get whatever protection you can.
- maratc 4y ago
  > "Keep the status quo and we won't attack," they say but now they are attacking Ukraine anyways. This does not fit my understanding. In my understanding, Ukraine doubles down on NATO membership, and Russia attacks. Am I missing something? Somewhere between 2014 and 2022 Ukraine denounced its NATO aspirations? In no way I condone the Russian attack, but I also can't see how they're "untrustable".
  - watwut 4y ago
    In what way did Ukraine doubled down? What exact step made it more likely?

Bud 4y ago

As part of its application, Finland will agree to donate 5.7 billion umlauts to other NATO nations each year, excluding Germany, which already has enough.

jl2718 4y ago

Regimes change. I expect soon. Then what? Are we still locked into opposition with the Russian people? Given a blank slate, what relationship do we want between NATO/EU countries and Russia?

GolDDranks 4y ago
As a Finn, I sincerely wish we could come along with our Russian neighbors, but Russia need to change for that to happen. Democracy, human rights and the concepts freedom of speech, freedom of press and a concept of transparent, rule-based society with little corruption are the keywords, but they haven't truly taken root in the Russian culture and system of thought.
- jl2718 4y ago
  Assuming the regime falls and leaves a power vacuum, what do you think the best way to help the people toward that is? My greatest concern is what comes next. The current regime is a kleptocracy, which is awful for the people, but easy to predict and control and siphon cheap natural resources from. They stay in power partly by fear of EU/NATO, but it’s questionable support. Once the kleptocracy is gone, EU/NATO can either embrace Russia or maintain the current stance against them. Embracing Russia will diminish EU/NATO power and purpose. Maintaining the current stance will strengthen the alliance against them, while pushing the country toward extreme nationalism in a new regime with nothing to lose and a lot to prove. There will not be a clear decision point to switch course; it will either be gradual de-escalation on both sides, or gradual strengthening.
  - GolDDranks 4y ago
    That sounds like a super hard problem, because USSR already collapsed once, and stuff seemed like it was going to a better direction, but in the end we got Putin. Also, it's in interests of China to keep a some kind of power balance, so at least I think that EU/NATO shouldn't think the fate of Russia as "not my problem", or else China might do some opportunistic power plays.

0x737368 4y ago

Wow, some real hot takes in here. It's particularly funny that commenters here mention what happened in Georgia and Ukraine as reasons for Finland joining NATO, when it's exactly those countries cosying up to NATO/the West at Russia's security what lead to the conflicts. Goes to show how people will happily swallow the media narrative without thinking about the big picture.

GolDDranks 4y ago
As a Finn (so I happen to know _my_ reasons for why I support joining NATO perfectly well), I'm curious: how do you perceive the media narrative to be biased or wrong?
- 0x737368 4y ago
  It's a vague question but an appropriately vague answer to that is media narrative is not to inform you of what's happening but to make you think the way the people who control those media channels want you to think - you can only form your opinions from what you see. But in this case the media narrative is very much "this why we need everyone to join NATO/be West-aligned" whereas it's exactly the expansion of NATO that has lead to these conflicts. As much as we'd all like for everyone to do what they want, in reality you need to consider the position of your neighbours especially if they have power. For an alternative example - see how USA reacted to Cuba becoming communist aligned, very much pot calling the kettle black, no? ;)
- maratc 4y ago
  As a Finn, do you think it was smart of Mannerheim to join Nazi Germany against Russia? [EDIT] Appreciate the downvoting, but would appreciate an answer even more.
  - GolDDranks 4y ago
    I'm not super well versed in history, but I don't think Finland had much better options at that time, so yeah, it was kinda smart.

6346363634 4y ago

booi 4y ago
- 6346363634 4y ago
6346363634 4y ago
[flagged]

alangibson 4y ago

The actions of a Russian leader directly resulting in their border with NATO growing by 1500 km has got to go down as one of the all time great strategic eff-ups. If this whole fiasco does result in WWIII, it'll be because of Finland joining NATO.

vkoskiv 4y ago
> If this whole fiasco does result in WWIII, it'll be because of Finland joining NATO. No. It will have been because fascist Russia invaded Ukraine.
- alangibson 4y ago
  You don't need to virtue signal. It's obvious that Russian aggression started all this.

t4lkjlkjl5yt34 4y ago

[flagged]

ochoseis 4y ago

To appreciate this may require some understanding of the historical context. I’d heard of the Winter War between Finland and the USSR prior to WWII, but had no idea that: - Finland was formerly part of the Russian Empire - Finland held out, but conceded a significant chunk of land to the USSR (Karelian Isthmus, now part of Russia…sounds kind of like eastern Ukraine) - The Soviet forces were generally inept - The West essentially abandoned Finland to avoid confronting the USSR - Ever since WWII, Finland has been careful to remain neutral The “World War Two” channel on YouTube has a series of entertaining videos detailing the history starting around here: https://youtu.be/HZunUjmHTeA https://youtu.be/HZunUjmHTeA

supergirl 4y ago
you “accidentally” left out some events: Finland fought alongside Nazi Germany against USSR, for example in the infamous siege of Leningrad
- ochoseis 4y ago
  Please do not [inaccurately] insinuate my intent. Pretty sure that’s obviously implied by: “The West essentially abandoned Finland to avoid confronting the USSR”

diedyesterday 4y ago

It's about time these lazy Euro countries contributed to their own security instead of just taking it for granted as always, assuming the rest of NATO members (specially the active ones) would be there for them, without themselves bearing any cost or even paying it any active attention. Similar to how those who have not vaccinated themselves enjoy the collective immunity that others (who have taken the trouble/time/cost/etc. to get vaccinated) have provided for them.

99_00 4y ago

I wonder how the Finnish people will feel the next time something like the 2011 military intervention in Libya, or the invasion of Afghanistan, or the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia takes place. On the other hand, it's clear that the Russian military is a complete joke. It's being ripped apart by militias. One has to wonder what developed nation, even a small one, with nation with trained and disciplined armed forces would do to it. To me the Ukraine situation shows the pointlessness of NATAO more than anything else. Russia is too weak to be a threat.

kkfx 4y ago

My fellow HN-ers that's simple: Finnish and Scandinavians have historical reasons to be anti-Russians and to have a more or less deep inferiority sense due to demography and resources, they have choose neutrality in the past because that was their best option to remain in peace and prosper as much as possible, being tied mostly to UK. No UK and USA have demanded local neoliberal rulers to join or being considered not much friend anymore, and then their government, as for instance Italian Gov. choose to betray their Citizens interest for their own economical ones, choosing to apply, of course without any public debate and vote. IF their Citizens decide that's time to remember what Democracy means they'll organize a quick massive general strike ordering immediate resignation of their own government to go to vote and after with a new government starting the debate, if not they'll get the consequences and we from the EU as well since so far not so many Citizens start acting to going out of NATO... Oh, no, I'm not pro-Putin, I'm a Citizen who came from a WWII Partisans family and so I recognize and can't support nor original nazis nor new one, no dictators included so while I can't support Putin being a dictator who also choose religion as a way to stay in power, I can't support as well and more (since they are here, not in another country) anglo-neoliberals and their subjects, local neoliberals traitors of their own people and countries for the sake of someone else. I understand that neoliberals need a war to remain in power and committing a mass murder crime to make their new dream society, a copy of actual Chines one with minor variations (choosing suite&tie + black color instead of uniform and red color) but us the people need the exact opposite and seeing actual effect of propaganda... Well... I understand that due to the extreme vulnerability of many I can't live myself in a democracy, a thing that behind anger push me toward not really nice sentiments and considerations about old-classic government model with a deeply divided population and the historic outcome of such division.