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I've been an entrepreneur through three major recessions - the early 2000s (8 months long), the great recession 2007 (18 months long), and the 2021 COVID recess

I've been an entrepreneur through three major recessions - the early 2000s (8 months long), the great recession 2007 (18 months long), and the 2021 COVID recession (2 months long). In each event I was significantly more impacted by the media salivating about the potential for a coming economic collapse than I was actually living through them. Certainly my companies were impacted negatively at the outset of each, but emerged stronger to take advantage of the clear skies and sunny days that proceeded each event. We've been playing on easy mode for the past 10 years in many ways - it's difficult to truly innovate without challenge, and today I embrace the potential for the board to shift, to find new opportunities to innovate, and to embrace change.

black_13 5y ago
altdataseller 5y ago
Even if we ignore the economy, starting a startup before 2015 or so was "easy mode" relatively speaking. Now, there are less greenfield spaces, more competition, and less barriers to get started. Much much harder to start a successful business today.
- taf2 5y ago
  It was much harder to start in 2000 compared to 1990… it’s always the same every year it’s not harder it’s just harder to see compared to what you can look back to understand… the same is true today as it was yesterday and should be tomorrow - make something to help someone by adding value to what they do… charge them money for it - listen to how they use it etc etc … it’s never been easy IMO…. Finding the inflections is when you can make a unicorn but you can certainly build a business without one IMO… granted I’ve grew up with AOL surging and then collapsing … failed a few times and maybe have something that finally works … so who knows unless you try
  - iso1631 5y ago
    2000 was the seeds of the dot com world, there was a massive new multi-trillion dollar global market opening. 1990 had none of that. Maybe blockchains and NFTs are the 2020s version of the internet as far as greenfield goes. I'm not convinced, but then I've always been too cynical for my own good.
    - randomdata 5y ago
      2000 was the height of the dotcom boom. The winners were already selected and the losers imploded soon after. This was not the better time for a new business. 1990 was the time the opportunity was ripe to begin securing your position for the year 2000. Businesses aren't built in a day.
      - iso1631 5y ago
        Looking at high revenue western internet companies founded around 2000 -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Internet_companies https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Internet_compa... Google: 1998, Salesforce 1999, Overstock 1999,, Bet365 2000, Grubhub 2001, Etsy 2002, Logmein 2003, Shopify 2004 Nothing around 1990. Amazon, Ebay, Expedia etc in the mid 90s sure. 1998 and 1999 did better than 2000, but from 1990-1995 there are 9 on the list, from 2000-2005 there are 19 on the list, from 2010-2015 there are 14. Starting in 2000 put you in a great position to capitalise on the real growth of the internet when mobile devices came on.
- dalbasal 5y ago
  I suppose easy and hard depends on who you are. Pre-2015 there were a lot of opportunities to get a running start without much investment. A cool new web-thing would spread organically, could be coded pretty fast, etc. Now, it's easier to raise money and use that to build a business. A not uncommon strategy is paying Google and Facebook $200 to acquire a $100. It loses money, but shows growth. For some people, the new way is easy mode. For a lot of people, the ability to raise, pay yourself a real salary and also recruit a well paid team is easy mode. For some people, three dudes and some ramen is easy mode.
- jpadkins 5y ago
  what happened in 2015?
  - altdataseller 5y ago
    Nothing specific in that year but that was around the time when: 1. Everyone using FB ads and the days of FB ad arbitrage and cheap ad prices were going away 2. Cloud computing started to become more mainstream and building your own product became even easier 3. Instagram and YouTube started to really take over peoples attention and the days of getting attention by simply building something cool was disappearing.
laurent92 5y ago
I wonder whether having the media doomplay every crisis is part of the confounding or resorbing forces. Are they making it worse by persuading everyone that there is a crisis and that they should stop investing? Or are they helping decision makers anticipate and therefore smoothen the blow? I mean, the 2008 they talked so much about was way smoother than the 1995-1998 crisis, where managers were taken hostage in France in dozens of manufactures, where the Five Dragons fell in Asia and where Boris Yeltsin’s Russia came to an end? The 1998 Russia crisis is particularly interesting: - Russia was put under FMI (IMF) leadership with huge monetary injection, - Financial games made that this money didn’t help the populace but only helped to create a new billionaire class in Russia. - We have a dozen thousand Russian multimillionaires here on the French Côte d’Azur (Nice) coming from that period; and the other half of the oligarchs created the Putin regime. Talk about a grave crisis, Ukraine is a ripple effect of the IMF stuffup.
- paulpauper 5y ago
  It's for clicks, ad revenue, page views etc. Doom and gloom sells.
- toyg 5y ago
  > having the media doomplay every crisis is part of the confounding or resorbing forces Capitalist economy is fundamentally predicated on confidence cycles, so anything hitting that confidence will inevitably speed up the coming of the next downturn. However, the downturn would eventually come anyway. > the 2008 they talked so much about was way smoother than the 1995-1998 crisis That really depended on where you were and a bunch of other factors. Entire neighbourhoods in the US were gutted by repossessions, in London we had meaningless riots, in the arts sector they saw budgets slashed, etc etc. > Ukraine is a ripple effect of the IMF stuffup. Undoubtedly. Also of the post-2001 US doctrine on the use of force in international relations. And a bunch of other things. Nothing ever happens just because somebody woke up that day feeling like starting a war.
bluetomcat 5y ago
What worries me more is that it seems like the post-WW2 order is shaken. Large-scale war is back on European soil. Information and propaganda wars are intensifying. The defense architecture of the Western hemisphere now needs to cope with unpredictable dictators posing a nuclear threat.
- dkjaudyeqooe 5y ago
  I don't think much has really changed except that the scales have fallen from the eyes of most Western countries. The military has always had the same pretty much the same posture towards Russia wrt threats and nuclear deterrents. I see the spread of disinformation and propaganda as something that will inoculate the populace ultimately. I think Russia (and China) has done the West a favor. Hopefully the West will start offering integration into our economies as a reward for democratic reforms instead of as an incentive, because god knows that hasn't produced the desired result.
  - javajosh 5y ago
    I like your comment and its practical optimism. I hope you're right about disinformation innoculation; the science works out because it's hard to stay in emotional disequilibrium for so long! And it really does take long time (years) to get a handle on the troll phenomena and your reaction to it, so perhaps these are the growing pains of a bouncing baby information society!
  - pmoriarty 5y ago
    "The military has always had the same pretty much the same posture towards Russia wrt threats and nuclear deterrents." That's not my understanding. I'm far from an expert, but from what I've read there was a radical change in the US military from a focus on large-scale warfare to small-scale warfare focused on urban combat and quick responses to multiple small threats. There are also way, way less nuclear weapons (on both sides) than there used to be. I think there were something like 30,000 nuclear weapons in the US at the peak of nuclear proliferation, and now there are closer to 5,000 (and roughly the same in Russia). So the military posture of both countries has definitely changed. Unfortunately, it seems we're headed back towards a Cold War, if not a hot war... so the arms race is likely to heat up and preparations for large-scale combat will likely increase. This will make the world a much more dangerous place.
fundad 5y ago
There was a chilling effect from swarms a "you're praying for a recession" about 3 years ago but it certainly wore off. The real power players make money coming and going so real economic growth and wage growth is the last thing they and the executives at media companies want.
jandrese 5y ago
The news media is addicted to economic doom stories IMHO. They generate a lot of viewer interest even when most people are barely affected. Even when times are good there are always stories about how it's all illusory and in fact we're all moments away from disaster.
- paulpauper 5y ago
  for the media, every year is 1929, 2007, or 2008. crisis is always around the corner. everything is the start of ww3 or a depression. democracy is always on the brink.
  - philjohn 5y ago
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3BO6GP9NMY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3BO6GP9NMY
ChrisMarshallNY 5y ago
Same here. The last 30 years have given me a very steady growth. The last five or so have been insane. I took a hit when Putin decided to ruin his country, but, if we don't go up in a fireball, things will be good, afterwards (except, maybe, in Russia. I really hope that they don't go back to Stalin-era privation, after having a few years, experiencing Western decadence/freedom. I've really enjoyed working with Russians, and this is pretty depressing).
raxxorrax 5y ago
Our financial markets are basically casinos by now and highly influence by emotion. So negative press will inevitably have a real impact on the economy as sad as that is.

black_13 5y ago

altdataseller 5y ago

Even if we ignore the economy, starting a startup before 2015 or so was "easy mode" relatively speaking. Now, there are less greenfield spaces, more competition, and less barriers to get started. Much much harder to start a successful business today.

taf2 5y ago
It was much harder to start in 2000 compared to 1990… it’s always the same every year it’s not harder it’s just harder to see compared to what you can look back to understand… the same is true today as it was yesterday and should be tomorrow - make something to help someone by adding value to what they do… charge them money for it - listen to how they use it etc etc … it’s never been easy IMO…. Finding the inflections is when you can make a unicorn but you can certainly build a business without one IMO… granted I’ve grew up with AOL surging and then collapsing … failed a few times and maybe have something that finally works … so who knows unless you try
- iso1631 5y ago
  2000 was the seeds of the dot com world, there was a massive new multi-trillion dollar global market opening. 1990 had none of that. Maybe blockchains and NFTs are the 2020s version of the internet as far as greenfield goes. I'm not convinced, but then I've always been too cynical for my own good.
  - randomdata 5y ago
    2000 was the height of the dotcom boom. The winners were already selected and the losers imploded soon after. This was not the better time for a new business. 1990 was the time the opportunity was ripe to begin securing your position for the year 2000. Businesses aren't built in a day.
    - iso1631 5y ago
      Looking at high revenue western internet companies founded around 2000 -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Internet_companies https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Internet_compa... Google: 1998, Salesforce 1999, Overstock 1999,, Bet365 2000, Grubhub 2001, Etsy 2002, Logmein 2003, Shopify 2004 Nothing around 1990. Amazon, Ebay, Expedia etc in the mid 90s sure. 1998 and 1999 did better than 2000, but from 1990-1995 there are 9 on the list, from 2000-2005 there are 19 on the list, from 2010-2015 there are 14. Starting in 2000 put you in a great position to capitalise on the real growth of the internet when mobile devices came on.
dalbasal 5y ago
I suppose easy and hard depends on who you are. Pre-2015 there were a lot of opportunities to get a running start without much investment. A cool new web-thing would spread organically, could be coded pretty fast, etc. Now, it's easier to raise money and use that to build a business. A not uncommon strategy is paying Google and Facebook $200 to acquire a $100. It loses money, but shows growth. For some people, the new way is easy mode. For a lot of people, the ability to raise, pay yourself a real salary and also recruit a well paid team is easy mode. For some people, three dudes and some ramen is easy mode.
jpadkins 5y ago
what happened in 2015?
- altdataseller 5y ago
  Nothing specific in that year but that was around the time when: 1. Everyone using FB ads and the days of FB ad arbitrage and cheap ad prices were going away 2. Cloud computing started to become more mainstream and building your own product became even easier 3. Instagram and YouTube started to really take over peoples attention and the days of getting attention by simply building something cool was disappearing.

laurent92 5y ago

I wonder whether having the media doomplay every crisis is part of the confounding or resorbing forces. Are they making it worse by persuading everyone that there is a crisis and that they should stop investing? Or are they helping decision makers anticipate and therefore smoothen the blow? I mean, the 2008 they talked so much about was way smoother than the 1995-1998 crisis, where managers were taken hostage in France in dozens of manufactures, where the Five Dragons fell in Asia and where Boris Yeltsin’s Russia came to an end? The 1998 Russia crisis is particularly interesting: - Russia was put under FMI (IMF) leadership with huge monetary injection, - Financial games made that this money didn’t help the populace but only helped to create a new billionaire class in Russia. - We have a dozen thousand Russian multimillionaires here on the French Côte d’Azur (Nice) coming from that period; and the other half of the oligarchs created the Putin regime. Talk about a grave crisis, Ukraine is a ripple effect of the IMF stuffup.

paulpauper 5y ago
It's for clicks, ad revenue, page views etc. Doom and gloom sells.
toyg 5y ago
> having the media doomplay every crisis is part of the confounding or resorbing forces Capitalist economy is fundamentally predicated on confidence cycles, so anything hitting that confidence will inevitably speed up the coming of the next downturn. However, the downturn would eventually come anyway. > the 2008 they talked so much about was way smoother than the 1995-1998 crisis That really depended on where you were and a bunch of other factors. Entire neighbourhoods in the US were gutted by repossessions, in London we had meaningless riots, in the arts sector they saw budgets slashed, etc etc. > Ukraine is a ripple effect of the IMF stuffup. Undoubtedly. Also of the post-2001 US doctrine on the use of force in international relations. And a bunch of other things. Nothing ever happens just because somebody woke up that day feeling like starting a war.

bluetomcat 5y ago

What worries me more is that it seems like the post-WW2 order is shaken. Large-scale war is back on European soil. Information and propaganda wars are intensifying. The defense architecture of the Western hemisphere now needs to cope with unpredictable dictators posing a nuclear threat.

dkjaudyeqooe 5y ago
I don't think much has really changed except that the scales have fallen from the eyes of most Western countries. The military has always had the same pretty much the same posture towards Russia wrt threats and nuclear deterrents. I see the spread of disinformation and propaganda as something that will inoculate the populace ultimately. I think Russia (and China) has done the West a favor. Hopefully the West will start offering integration into our economies as a reward for democratic reforms instead of as an incentive, because god knows that hasn't produced the desired result.
- javajosh 5y ago
  I like your comment and its practical optimism. I hope you're right about disinformation innoculation; the science works out because it's hard to stay in emotional disequilibrium for so long! And it really does take long time (years) to get a handle on the troll phenomena and your reaction to it, so perhaps these are the growing pains of a bouncing baby information society!
- pmoriarty 5y ago
  "The military has always had the same pretty much the same posture towards Russia wrt threats and nuclear deterrents." That's not my understanding. I'm far from an expert, but from what I've read there was a radical change in the US military from a focus on large-scale warfare to small-scale warfare focused on urban combat and quick responses to multiple small threats. There are also way, way less nuclear weapons (on both sides) than there used to be. I think there were something like 30,000 nuclear weapons in the US at the peak of nuclear proliferation, and now there are closer to 5,000 (and roughly the same in Russia). So the military posture of both countries has definitely changed. Unfortunately, it seems we're headed back towards a Cold War, if not a hot war... so the arms race is likely to heat up and preparations for large-scale combat will likely increase. This will make the world a much more dangerous place.

fundad 5y ago

There was a chilling effect from swarms a "you're praying for a recession" about 3 years ago but it certainly wore off. The real power players make money coming and going so real economic growth and wage growth is the last thing they and the executives at media companies want.

jandrese 5y ago

The news media is addicted to economic doom stories IMHO. They generate a lot of viewer interest even when most people are barely affected. Even when times are good there are always stories about how it's all illusory and in fact we're all moments away from disaster.

paulpauper 5y ago
for the media, every year is 1929, 2007, or 2008. crisis is always around the corner. everything is the start of ww3 or a depression. democracy is always on the brink.
- philjohn 5y ago
  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3BO6GP9NMY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3BO6GP9NMY

ChrisMarshallNY 5y ago

Same here. The last 30 years have given me a very steady growth. The last five or so have been insane. I took a hit when Putin decided to ruin his country, but, if we don't go up in a fireball, things will be good, afterwards (except, maybe, in Russia. I really hope that they don't go back to Stalin-era privation, after having a few years, experiencing Western decadence/freedom. I've really enjoyed working with Russians, and this is pretty depressing).

raxxorrax 5y ago

Our financial markets are basically casinos by now and highly influence by emotion. So negative press will inevitably have a real impact on the economy as sad as that is.