19 ms·

Nord Stream 2 declares bankruptcy

232 points by ushakov 5y ago

keewee7 5y ago
Meanwhile Nord Stream 1 still flows at full throttle. Spring has just started, close the Russian pipes.
- Karto 5y ago
  It's just about 22h00 here, and -6°C outside the window. Spring has not started...
  - djxfade 5y ago
    - Aldo_MX 5y ago
      -6c is like 20f just in case you hadn't realized that it's below the freezing point of water
    - isatty 5y ago
      - buzzert 5y ago
        Pretty sure it was just a joke…
        baq 5y ago
        From the not-quite-funny-even-if-true dept.
        CRConrad 5y ago
        Those are often the best jokes.
    - lsllc 5y ago
      I'm assuming you are referring to US President Jimmy Carter's "turn down the heat and wear a sweater" comment during the oil crisis of the late '70s? https://twitter.com/carterlibrary/status/1440647484519313408?lang=en https://twitter.com/carterlibrary/status/1440647484519313408...
  - coryrc 5y ago
    Yes? Is that unusual? The last frost date is May or June where I come from. We could survive cutting our heat use in half. Better than going to war.
    - Karto 5y ago
      Nothing unusual. Just an answer to the previous comment, that felt thrown over one's shoulder : a whole continent won't switch its energy sources in a couple of days.
- skybrian 5y ago
  This might be too abrupt for buyers. Tax them instead?
- baybal2 5y ago
  It's all up to you https://www.google.com/maps/place/Anlandestation+Nord+Stream/@54.1507389,13.6565846,16.75z https://www.google.com/maps/place/Anlandestation+Nord+Stream...
- thrwway202232 5y ago
  another full throttle thing: Viktor Kharitonin and Roman Abramovich are linked to the ownership of the Nurburgring race track. Both are on the sanctioned oligarchs list. https://edition.cnn.com/2018/01/30/politics/full-us-list-of-russian-oligarchs-with-putin-ties-intl/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2018/01/30/politics/full-us-list-of-... Viktor Kharitonin is #43, Abranovich is #2. https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/motorsport/russian-billionaire-buys-99-stake-n%C3%BCrburgring https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/motorsport/russian-billio...
bitcharmer 5y ago
Also Visa and MasterCard services are absent in Russia as of today
- ejstronge 5y ago
  > Also Visa and MasterCard services are absent in Russia as of today I'm not sure if this is quite the case - can anyone confirm? Their statement seems to muddy the issue but I believe they have only stopped working with sanctioned banks.
- ushakov 5y ago
  yep, habr.com is making a list of services currently not working https://habr.com/ru/news/t/653761/ https://habr.com/ru/news/t/653761/
- fuoqi 5y ago
  Domestic payments in Russia are handled by SPFS without any issues, the problems are with cross-border payments and Apple/Google Pay tied to cards of the sanctioned banks.
ushakov 5y ago
if you can see behind the paywall, here's a WSJ article: https://www.wsj.com/articles/nord-stream-2-gas-pipeline-lays-off-all-employees-11646162990 https://www.wsj.com/articles/nord-stream-2-gas-pipeline-lays...
- dang 5y ago
  Thanks. I've changed the URL to that from https://www.srf.ch/news/schweiz/konkurs-angemeldet-nord-stream-2-ist-zahlungsunfaehig https://www.srf.ch/news/schweiz/konkurs-angemeldet-nord-stre..., which is not in English. We have deep respect for other languages, but HN is an English-language site.
  - smoe 5y ago
    Makes sense. Also because the original article is not really about the Nord Stream 2 bankruptcy but a short interview with a regional politician about rights the 106 employees that where let go have and tax losses for the canton/state (it is kind of the Delaware of Switzerland) with many of the companies with ties to russia expected to have a similar future.
mischa_u 5y ago
https://archive.is/Fp97N https://archive.is/Fp97N
nikanj 5y ago
Money is flowing from Europe to Ukraine to support that side of the war. Unfortunately way more money is flowing from Europe to Russia, to support the other side of said war.
- lawn 5y ago
  If the war so far has shown anything, it's that Russia hasn't been converting money to military efficiently. And so far there's been a very large inflow of critical military equipment to Ukraine, while Russia has been hit with giant economic sanctions.
- dmitriid 5y ago
  Whether we like it or not, the world is global (and has been so since at least the 19th century). Politicians and populists can huff and puff all they want, but Europe needs gas, and it gets that gas from Russia.
  - indigochill 5y ago
    > Europe needs gas, and it gets that gas from Russia. As an American living in Europe, I've just learned this fact last week, but I'm curious if the US gets its gas from the middle east, why hasn't Europe been doing the same? Ever since the fall of the USSR, it's not like western Europe welcomed Russia back into Europe with open arms (to my understanding, Russia is the entire reason NATO still exists). By comparison, Europe barely seems to register the middle east's existence (aside from when refugees start crossing the border in large numbers or when supporting US invasions). So politically it seems like they'd be a much better economic partner (especially since western Europe and the US are on generally good terms and the US has been heavily involved in making sure their oil interests in the middle east remain "secure"). Is it that Russian gas is actually cheaper but the US wouldn't buy from Russia?
    - nikanj 5y ago
      The US does not get their gas from the middle east. Out of 252,610 total units, 250,890 came from Canada. Everything else is a rounding error. [ https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_move_impc_s1_m.htm https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_move_impc_s1_m.htm ]
baq 5y ago
As someone living on the eastern NATO border this has been a most interesting week. In the Chinese proverb way. Ghosts of 1939, about which I’ve heard stories from my grandfather and was taught in history lessons, suddenly came to life just around the corner. The only consolation is that the west finally saw the Kremlin for what it always has been - a treacherous, lying dictatorship that seeks to enrich itself through any means and cannot be trusted. Putin managed to do in a single week what multiple US presidents couldn’t in years - remilitarization of Germany. Also, he managed to get Scandinavia to join NATO and dismissed any ideas some countries might have had about leaving EU for decades. Europe will pay a price which is unknown, but it is certain it will be huge. You just don’t quit drugs (cheap energy) in a week. There will be massive projects undertaken to public dismay. Ukraine, unfortunately, cannot win - it already lost, even if Russian forces withdraw this instant. The question which remains is can Putin still win. He must be given an option, otherwise this ends really, really ugly.
- teawrecks 5y ago
  Care to elaborate on what "Ukraine has already lost" means? Is joining the EU the loss? I would assume that if Russia withdrew this instant, Ukraine would likely survive this. No?
  - david927 5y ago
    It's not joining the EU. Its application has been accepted. Bosnia's application was accepted in 2003 and it's most certainly not in the EU.
  - hraedon 5y ago
    Even if the war ended right now, Ukraine has hundreds of thousands of refugees to move and shelter, huge amounts of destroyed infrastructure to repair and work around, most of their army expended, and a lot of civilian losses. They also won't get Crimea back, and they probably can't hold onto the separatist regions either. Provided that the world continues to rally around Ukraine and gets critical supplies to the population centers they may avoid grievous additional losses, but Ukraine is unavoidably much worse off than it was pre-invasion.
Daniel_sk 5y ago
Everybody told Germany that it's not a good idea to build this pipeline. Well, it was an expensive way of learning it.
- cft 5y ago
  Putin financed German green party, that also shut down nuclear reactors. He is not stupid. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/german-green-group-branded-a-russian-puppet-over-nord-stream-ii-gas-pipeline-nzd9p056q https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/german-green-group-brande...
  - Daniel_sk 5y ago
    And they also lobbied to get gas into EU taxonomy as renewable (and succeeded!).
  - tut-urut-utut 5y ago
    WTF. German Green Party is more pro USA and pro NATO than Biden. They are literally more interested in USA than German interests.
  - jjtheblunt 5y ago
    > He is not stupid. He's seemingly angered / disgusted the entire earth: that's stupid.
    - cft 5y ago
      China seems to be content for now
      - rchaud 5y ago
        Why wouldn't they? China and Russia are not natural allies and they both have an interest in maintaining influence over energy-rich Central Asia. Russia invading Ukraine gives China license to further deepen its relations with its neighbours, without worrying too much about Russian blowback. It's the same situation as when the US invaded Afghanistan and Iraq. China got a get out of jail free card in terms of ramping up military and establishing territorial claims in the South China Sea. No kerfuffle with the US, who were simply too deep into a quagmire to care.
standardUser 5y ago
Geopolitics aside, I'm always happy to see fewer long-term investments in fossil fuels.
- rad_gruchalski 5y ago
  Instead of a pipeline, there will be two LNG import terminals.
  - toomuchtodo 5y ago
    Expensive gas encourages clean alternative deployments. No one is leaving fossil fuels unless it’s painful to keep using them, so it’s good for more pain.
    - m348e912 5y ago
      Problem is, there aren't many alternatives... at least not yet. Wind and solar have proven to be not as reliable as nuclear, and in recent decades the EU has shut down most of their nuclear energy sources. BTW, nuclear is a fairly green source of energy, minus the meltdowns, accidents, and waste -- which to my understanding operators have become better at dealing with.
      - toomuchtodo 5y ago
        https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30501636 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30501636
        m348e912 5y ago
        What's with the downvotes? Yes there are plenty of green sources of energy, just not sufficient storage to account for ebbs and flows of energy generation.
        toomuchtodo 5y ago
dghlsakjg 5y ago
I'm of the mindset that the west needs to use every tactic to the fullest in this economic battle. Yes it will hurt the west, yes it will hurt innocent civilians, but we need to make the real effects hurt Russia faster than Putin can make this suffering seem patriotic. We need the suffering to start faster than Putin can find his way around the sanctions. Far better to have a few weeks of large economic chaos than to drag it out for years, or to have to escalate to a war involving two nuclear armed parties.
- bavell 5y ago
  How is that not escalation that could lead to MAD?
  - axiosgunnar 5y ago
    My hope is that oligarchs would rather try to suicide Putin than have ten yachts but nowhere to go to because it‘s nuclear winter everywhere.
  - JacobThreeThree 5y ago
    Armchair generals are a dime a dozen on social media. Analysts from all over the spectrum have been warning about the Ukraine red line for decades. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1498491107902062592.html https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1498491107902062592.html
    - baq 5y ago
      These people were right, but the alternatives they propose do not sound realistic. They are aimed at rational actors. The fact is, people living in those countries do not want to be Russia again and a civil war was always the only way this could end, NATO application or not. See Chechnya or Georgia.
    - dghlsakjg 5y ago
      This is very interesting. It’s worth pointing out that Ukraine never actually did join NATO (and arguably was a long way from it) and war was still the outcome. The right of Ukrainians to self determine their country’s future shouldn’t hinge on the whims of Putin or Russia in general. Yes, I know that is a moral position at odds with politics and reality
dr_awkward 5y ago
This is good for bitcoin?
shrubble 5y ago
So someone else will buy it up for cheap, right? Then in a year or two, or maybe even less, the gas will flow again and the buyer(likely someone "connected") will be raking in the cash.
- tapas73 5y ago
  germany is big AND wealthy buyer. Not eveybody can buy so much at current price. also storage of natural gas is problematic.
  - CRConrad 5y ago
    > also storage of natural gas is problematic. I think the GP's "buy it up" meant the pipeline, not gas.
- throwoutway 5y ago
  The owners/shareholders are Russian, German, French, and Dutch. Others could buy up the assets cheap -- but would take the risk of future sanctions again. Edit: I guess the only buyers might be other Russians or China?
DSingularity 5y ago
These comments are hilarious. US invades Iraq and kills a million Arabs. Not a peep. Still connected to swift. Visa still works. Russia invades Ukraine and the entire world is outraged and demanding to cut Russians off from anything and everything. Western value of the day, week, month, and decade: hypocrisy.
- mullingitover 5y ago
  > Not a peep The Iraq invasion had at least some small fig leaf of multilateralism. Russia has no friends on this misadventure, only hostages.
  - singularity2001 5y ago
    Yes, Germany under Gerhart Schroeder sharply rejected the war. Coincidentally he is also a main figure of Nord Stream
- vmception 5y ago
  There's nobody to do it! We invade with NATO, absolving the need to ask US Congress for authorization and implicating all of the allies who could ever consider a coordinated sanction as they are all now culpable! I would be content with that if our leaders just said it like that. Join the gang by implicating yourself. I too kind of bore over the juvenile moral arguments that have too many contradictions to count. It's not supposed to sound edgy, I could totally roll with "at least they're honest".
- krastanov 5y ago
  I was surprised by the "million Arabs" figure. For others that were also curious about it, this seems like a reasonable spot to start searching for data https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Iraq_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Iraq_War It seems to me rather unreasonable to ascribe all of that to the US. On the other hand, there are probably plenty of westerners (me included) that think American leadership should be treated as war criminals for starting that war, at the very least for the false information on which the invasion was justified (whether because of malice or incompetence on their part). Even then, even if the western sactions are self-serving, that does not make this war any less wrong, and Ukraine's desire for existence and self-determination any less valid.
smartties 5y ago
Is halting Nord Stream 1 on the list of incoming sanctions ?
- m348e912 5y ago
  It is not, gas is exempt from sanctions. I don't think the EU had much of a choice on that one. Their dependence on Russian energy is pretty significant.
- b3orn 5y ago
  With all the talk about finding alternative suppliers I assume in the long term it is on the list, but it needs quite some time to prepare for that. It's not just Nord Stream 1, there are also the Yamal–Europe pipeline through Belarus and the West-Siberian Pipeline through Ukraine.
mzs 5y ago
Here's an interview from today with the economics director, Silvia Thalmann-Gut councilor for Zug Canton: >The company had to file for bankruptcy and the entire workforce of 106 people is released. 140 people were incorrectly spoken of yesterday. https://www.srf.ch/news/schweiz/konkurs-angemeldet-nord-stream-2-ist-zahlungsunfaehig https://www.srf.ch/news/schweiz/konkurs-angemeldet-nord-stre... edit: earlier: entire staff of Gerhard Schroeder's office has resigned https://www.bild.de/politik/inland/politik-inland/ukraine-krieg-buero-mitarbeiter-von-gerhard-schroeder-kuendigen-79310716.bild.html https://www.bild.de/politik/inland/politik-inland/ukraine-kr...
martin8412 5y ago
Russia will not be allowed to win in Ukraine. It's too close to central Europe.
agumonkey 5y ago
readers of HN, any good geopolitics analysis to read (websites, channels, books, else) ?
- rdednl 5y ago
ComradePhil 5y ago
To those who are being exposed to this only because of recent events, here's what has happened before all this: - 2011 - Nord Stream 1 nearing completion and Nord Stream AG starts thinking about two more lines (which would later be named Nord Stream 2) - 2015 Jun - Decision to build Nord Stream 2 was made https://amp.dw.com/en/gazprom-inks-plan-for-new-gas-pipeline-to-germany/a-18525292 https://amp.dw.com/en/gazprom-inks-plan-for-new-gas-pipeline... - 2017 Apr - Financing agreements signed https://www.ft.com/content/32898bae-28f3-11e7-9ec8-168383da43b7 https://www.ft.com/content/32898bae-28f3-11e7-9ec8-168383da4... - 2018 Jan - Germany officially grants permit https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nordstream-germany-permit-idUSKBN1FK15J https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nordstream-germany-permit... - 2018 May - US diplomats start talking about sanctions https://www.rferl.org/a/us-warns-russian-german-nord-stream-2-pipeline-risks-trigger-sanctions-security-concern-oudkirk/29233548.html https://www.rferl.org/a/us-warns-russian-german-nord-stream-... - 2018 Jul - Trump scolds NATO General Secretary over European energy relations with Russia https://youtu.be/Vpwkdmwui3k https://youtu.be/Vpwkdmwui3k - 2019 Jan - US ambassador to Germany threatens sanctions https://www.dw.com/en/us-ambassador-richard-grenell-threatens-german-firms-over-russian-pipeline/a-47062540 https://www.dw.com/en/us-ambassador-richard-grenell-threaten... - 2019 Dec - US sanctions Nord Stream 2 https://www.dailysabah.com/americas/2019/12/21/trump-signs-738b-defense-bill-including-sanctions-targeting-russia-turkey https://www.dailysabah.com/americas/2019/12/21/trump-signs-7... - 2020 Dec - US continues to protest, Germany continues to build https://www.thelocal.de/20201206/work-set-to-resume-on-nordstream-2-pipeline-despite-us-protest/ https://www.thelocal.de/20201206/work-set-to-resume-on-nords... - 2021 Jan - Trump sanctions the Russian ship building Nord Stream 2 on his last day at the office https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-nordstream-sanctions-idUSKBN29O1XL https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-nordstream-sanctions-... - 2021 Jan - EU sanctions it too https://www.commonspace.eu/news/european-parliament-approves-resolution-calling-halt-nord-stream-2 https://www.commonspace.eu/news/european-parliament-approves... - 2021 May - US waives the sanctions on Nord Stream 2 https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-waive-sanctions-firm-ceo-behind-russias-nord-stream-2-pipeline-source-2021-05-19/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-waive-sanctions-f... - 2021 Jun - First line construction is complete https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2021-06-10/construction-nord-stream-2s-first-line-completed https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2021-06-10/con... - 2021 Sep - The full construction of Nord Stream 2 is complete https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/final-piece-nord-stream-2-place-operator-says-2021-09-06/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/final-piece-nord-stream... - 2022 Jan - Nord Stream 2 registers German subsidiary as a part of the certification process https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/nord-stream-2-registers-german-subsidiary-certification-still-suspended-2022-01-26/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/nord-stream-2-regist... This is a result of over a decade of planning and construction with governments, corporations and companies of Germany, UK, France, Austria, Switzerland, Finland, Estonia, Sweden, Russia... and probably more countries to provide cheap and reliable and climate friendly energy source to Europe... and it is just an addition of 2 more pipes to a pipeline that is already operational for a decade now... and the construction is already complete. Give it a few years, the American media clowns will find something else to distract their peasants with; meanwhile the project will move a few hands, will see some rebranding and the sanctions will be quietly lifted. It has happened before and it will most definitely happen again. It will take something much more drastic than what's happening in Ukraine for that to not go through.

232 points by ushakov 5y ago

keewee7 5y ago

Meanwhile Nord Stream 1 still flows at full throttle. Spring has just started, close the Russian pipes.

Karto 5y ago
It's just about 22h00 here, and -6°C outside the window. Spring has not started...
- djxfade 5y ago
  - Aldo_MX 5y ago
    -6c is like 20f just in case you hadn't realized that it's below the freezing point of water
  - isatty 5y ago
    - buzzert 5y ago
      Pretty sure it was just a joke…
      - baq 5y ago
        From the not-quite-funny-even-if-true dept.
        CRConrad 5y ago
        Those are often the best jokes.
  - lsllc 5y ago
    I'm assuming you are referring to US President Jimmy Carter's "turn down the heat and wear a sweater" comment during the oil crisis of the late '70s? https://twitter.com/carterlibrary/status/1440647484519313408?lang=en https://twitter.com/carterlibrary/status/1440647484519313408...
- coryrc 5y ago
  Yes? Is that unusual? The last frost date is May or June where I come from. We could survive cutting our heat use in half. Better than going to war.
  - Karto 5y ago
    Nothing unusual. Just an answer to the previous comment, that felt thrown over one's shoulder : a whole continent won't switch its energy sources in a couple of days.
skybrian 5y ago
This might be too abrupt for buyers. Tax them instead?
baybal2 5y ago
It's all up to you https://www.google.com/maps/place/Anlandestation+Nord+Stream/@54.1507389,13.6565846,16.75z https://www.google.com/maps/place/Anlandestation+Nord+Stream...
thrwway202232 5y ago
another full throttle thing: Viktor Kharitonin and Roman Abramovich are linked to the ownership of the Nurburgring race track. Both are on the sanctioned oligarchs list. https://edition.cnn.com/2018/01/30/politics/full-us-list-of-russian-oligarchs-with-putin-ties-intl/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2018/01/30/politics/full-us-list-of-... Viktor Kharitonin is #43, Abranovich is #2. https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/motorsport/russian-billionaire-buys-99-stake-n%C3%BCrburgring https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/motorsport/russian-billio...

bitcharmer 5y ago

Also Visa and MasterCard services are absent in Russia as of today

ejstronge 5y ago
> Also Visa and MasterCard services are absent in Russia as of today I'm not sure if this is quite the case - can anyone confirm? Their statement seems to muddy the issue but I believe they have only stopped working with sanctioned banks.
ushakov 5y ago
yep, habr.com is making a list of services currently not working https://habr.com/ru/news/t/653761/ https://habr.com/ru/news/t/653761/
fuoqi 5y ago
Domestic payments in Russia are handled by SPFS without any issues, the problems are with cross-border payments and Apple/Google Pay tied to cards of the sanctioned banks.

ushakov 5y ago

if you can see behind the paywall, here's a WSJ article: https://www.wsj.com/articles/nord-stream-2-gas-pipeline-lays-off-all-employees-11646162990 https://www.wsj.com/articles/nord-stream-2-gas-pipeline-lays...

dang 5y ago
Thanks. I've changed the URL to that from https://www.srf.ch/news/schweiz/konkurs-angemeldet-nord-stream-2-ist-zahlungsunfaehig https://www.srf.ch/news/schweiz/konkurs-angemeldet-nord-stre..., which is not in English. We have deep respect for other languages, but HN is an English-language site.
- smoe 5y ago
  Makes sense. Also because the original article is not really about the Nord Stream 2 bankruptcy but a short interview with a regional politician about rights the 106 employees that where let go have and tax losses for the canton/state (it is kind of the Delaware of Switzerland) with many of the companies with ties to russia expected to have a similar future.

mischa_u 5y ago

https://archive.is/Fp97N https://archive.is/Fp97N

nikanj 5y ago

Money is flowing from Europe to Ukraine to support that side of the war. Unfortunately way more money is flowing from Europe to Russia, to support the other side of said war.

lawn 5y ago
If the war so far has shown anything, it's that Russia hasn't been converting money to military efficiently. And so far there's been a very large inflow of critical military equipment to Ukraine, while Russia has been hit with giant economic sanctions.
dmitriid 5y ago
Whether we like it or not, the world is global (and has been so since at least the 19th century). Politicians and populists can huff and puff all they want, but Europe needs gas, and it gets that gas from Russia.
- indigochill 5y ago
  > Europe needs gas, and it gets that gas from Russia. As an American living in Europe, I've just learned this fact last week, but I'm curious if the US gets its gas from the middle east, why hasn't Europe been doing the same? Ever since the fall of the USSR, it's not like western Europe welcomed Russia back into Europe with open arms (to my understanding, Russia is the entire reason NATO still exists). By comparison, Europe barely seems to register the middle east's existence (aside from when refugees start crossing the border in large numbers or when supporting US invasions). So politically it seems like they'd be a much better economic partner (especially since western Europe and the US are on generally good terms and the US has been heavily involved in making sure their oil interests in the middle east remain "secure"). Is it that Russian gas is actually cheaper but the US wouldn't buy from Russia?
  - nikanj 5y ago
    The US does not get their gas from the middle east. Out of 252,610 total units, 250,890 came from Canada. Everything else is a rounding error. [ https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_move_impc_s1_m.htm https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_move_impc_s1_m.htm ]

baq 5y ago

As someone living on the eastern NATO border this has been a most interesting week. In the Chinese proverb way. Ghosts of 1939, about which I’ve heard stories from my grandfather and was taught in history lessons, suddenly came to life just around the corner. The only consolation is that the west finally saw the Kremlin for what it always has been - a treacherous, lying dictatorship that seeks to enrich itself through any means and cannot be trusted. Putin managed to do in a single week what multiple US presidents couldn’t in years - remilitarization of Germany. Also, he managed to get Scandinavia to join NATO and dismissed any ideas some countries might have had about leaving EU for decades. Europe will pay a price which is unknown, but it is certain it will be huge. You just don’t quit drugs (cheap energy) in a week. There will be massive projects undertaken to public dismay. Ukraine, unfortunately, cannot win - it already lost, even if Russian forces withdraw this instant. The question which remains is can Putin still win. He must be given an option, otherwise this ends really, really ugly.

teawrecks 5y ago
Care to elaborate on what "Ukraine has already lost" means? Is joining the EU the loss? I would assume that if Russia withdrew this instant, Ukraine would likely survive this. No?
- david927 5y ago
  It's not joining the EU. Its application has been accepted. Bosnia's application was accepted in 2003 and it's most certainly not in the EU.
- hraedon 5y ago
  Even if the war ended right now, Ukraine has hundreds of thousands of refugees to move and shelter, huge amounts of destroyed infrastructure to repair and work around, most of their army expended, and a lot of civilian losses. They also won't get Crimea back, and they probably can't hold onto the separatist regions either. Provided that the world continues to rally around Ukraine and gets critical supplies to the population centers they may avoid grievous additional losses, but Ukraine is unavoidably much worse off than it was pre-invasion.

Daniel_sk 5y ago

Everybody told Germany that it's not a good idea to build this pipeline. Well, it was an expensive way of learning it.

cft 5y ago
Putin financed German green party, that also shut down nuclear reactors. He is not stupid. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/german-green-group-branded-a-russian-puppet-over-nord-stream-ii-gas-pipeline-nzd9p056q https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/german-green-group-brande...
- Daniel_sk 5y ago
  And they also lobbied to get gas into EU taxonomy as renewable (and succeeded!).
- tut-urut-utut 5y ago
  WTF. German Green Party is more pro USA and pro NATO than Biden. They are literally more interested in USA than German interests.
- jjtheblunt 5y ago
  > He is not stupid. He's seemingly angered / disgusted the entire earth: that's stupid.
  - cft 5y ago
    China seems to be content for now
    - rchaud 5y ago
      Why wouldn't they? China and Russia are not natural allies and they both have an interest in maintaining influence over energy-rich Central Asia. Russia invading Ukraine gives China license to further deepen its relations with its neighbours, without worrying too much about Russian blowback. It's the same situation as when the US invaded Afghanistan and Iraq. China got a get out of jail free card in terms of ramping up military and establishing territorial claims in the South China Sea. No kerfuffle with the US, who were simply too deep into a quagmire to care.

standardUser 5y ago

Geopolitics aside, I'm always happy to see fewer long-term investments in fossil fuels.

rad_gruchalski 5y ago
Instead of a pipeline, there will be two LNG import terminals.
- toomuchtodo 5y ago
  Expensive gas encourages clean alternative deployments. No one is leaving fossil fuels unless it’s painful to keep using them, so it’s good for more pain.
  - m348e912 5y ago
    Problem is, there aren't many alternatives... at least not yet. Wind and solar have proven to be not as reliable as nuclear, and in recent decades the EU has shut down most of their nuclear energy sources. BTW, nuclear is a fairly green source of energy, minus the meltdowns, accidents, and waste -- which to my understanding operators have become better at dealing with.
    - toomuchtodo 5y ago
      https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30501636 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30501636
      - m348e912 5y ago
        What's with the downvotes? Yes there are plenty of green sources of energy, just not sufficient storage to account for ebbs and flows of energy generation.
        toomuchtodo 5y ago

dghlsakjg 5y ago

I'm of the mindset that the west needs to use every tactic to the fullest in this economic battle. Yes it will hurt the west, yes it will hurt innocent civilians, but we need to make the real effects hurt Russia faster than Putin can make this suffering seem patriotic. We need the suffering to start faster than Putin can find his way around the sanctions. Far better to have a few weeks of large economic chaos than to drag it out for years, or to have to escalate to a war involving two nuclear armed parties.

bavell 5y ago
How is that not escalation that could lead to MAD?
- axiosgunnar 5y ago
  My hope is that oligarchs would rather try to suicide Putin than have ten yachts but nowhere to go to because it‘s nuclear winter everywhere.
- JacobThreeThree 5y ago
  Armchair generals are a dime a dozen on social media. Analysts from all over the spectrum have been warning about the Ukraine red line for decades. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1498491107902062592.html https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1498491107902062592.html
  - baq 5y ago
    These people were right, but the alternatives they propose do not sound realistic. They are aimed at rational actors. The fact is, people living in those countries do not want to be Russia again and a civil war was always the only way this could end, NATO application or not. See Chechnya or Georgia.
  - dghlsakjg 5y ago
    This is very interesting. It’s worth pointing out that Ukraine never actually did join NATO (and arguably was a long way from it) and war was still the outcome. The right of Ukrainians to self determine their country’s future shouldn’t hinge on the whims of Putin or Russia in general. Yes, I know that is a moral position at odds with politics and reality

dr_awkward 5y ago

This is good for bitcoin?

shrubble 5y ago

So someone else will buy it up for cheap, right? Then in a year or two, or maybe even less, the gas will flow again and the buyer(likely someone "connected") will be raking in the cash.

tapas73 5y ago
germany is big AND wealthy buyer. Not eveybody can buy so much at current price. also storage of natural gas is problematic.
- CRConrad 5y ago
  > also storage of natural gas is problematic. I think the GP's "buy it up" meant the pipeline, not gas.
throwoutway 5y ago
The owners/shareholders are Russian, German, French, and Dutch. Others could buy up the assets cheap -- but would take the risk of future sanctions again. Edit: I guess the only buyers might be other Russians or China?

DSingularity 5y ago

These comments are hilarious. US invades Iraq and kills a million Arabs. Not a peep. Still connected to swift. Visa still works. Russia invades Ukraine and the entire world is outraged and demanding to cut Russians off from anything and everything. Western value of the day, week, month, and decade: hypocrisy.

mullingitover 5y ago
> Not a peep The Iraq invasion had at least some small fig leaf of multilateralism. Russia has no friends on this misadventure, only hostages.
- singularity2001 5y ago
  Yes, Germany under Gerhart Schroeder sharply rejected the war. Coincidentally he is also a main figure of Nord Stream
vmception 5y ago
There's nobody to do it! We invade with NATO, absolving the need to ask US Congress for authorization and implicating all of the allies who could ever consider a coordinated sanction as they are all now culpable! I would be content with that if our leaders just said it like that. Join the gang by implicating yourself. I too kind of bore over the juvenile moral arguments that have too many contradictions to count. It's not supposed to sound edgy, I could totally roll with "at least they're honest".
krastanov 5y ago
I was surprised by the "million Arabs" figure. For others that were also curious about it, this seems like a reasonable spot to start searching for data https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Iraq_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Iraq_War It seems to me rather unreasonable to ascribe all of that to the US. On the other hand, there are probably plenty of westerners (me included) that think American leadership should be treated as war criminals for starting that war, at the very least for the false information on which the invasion was justified (whether because of malice or incompetence on their part). Even then, even if the western sactions are self-serving, that does not make this war any less wrong, and Ukraine's desire for existence and self-determination any less valid.

smartties 5y ago

Is halting Nord Stream 1 on the list of incoming sanctions ?

m348e912 5y ago
It is not, gas is exempt from sanctions. I don't think the EU had much of a choice on that one. Their dependence on Russian energy is pretty significant.
b3orn 5y ago
With all the talk about finding alternative suppliers I assume in the long term it is on the list, but it needs quite some time to prepare for that. It's not just Nord Stream 1, there are also the Yamal–Europe pipeline through Belarus and the West-Siberian Pipeline through Ukraine.

mzs 5y ago

Here's an interview from today with the economics director, Silvia Thalmann-Gut councilor for Zug Canton: >The company had to file for bankruptcy and the entire workforce of 106 people is released. 140 people were incorrectly spoken of yesterday. https://www.srf.ch/news/schweiz/konkurs-angemeldet-nord-stream-2-ist-zahlungsunfaehig https://www.srf.ch/news/schweiz/konkurs-angemeldet-nord-stre... edit: earlier: entire staff of Gerhard Schroeder's office has resigned https://www.bild.de/politik/inland/politik-inland/ukraine-krieg-buero-mitarbeiter-von-gerhard-schroeder-kuendigen-79310716.bild.html https://www.bild.de/politik/inland/politik-inland/ukraine-kr...

martin8412 5y ago

Russia will not be allowed to win in Ukraine. It's too close to central Europe.

agumonkey 5y ago

readers of HN, any good geopolitics analysis to read (websites, channels, books, else) ?

rdednl 5y ago

ComradePhil 5y ago

To those who are being exposed to this only because of recent events, here's what has happened before all this: - 2011 - Nord Stream 1 nearing completion and Nord Stream AG starts thinking about two more lines (which would later be named Nord Stream 2) - 2015 Jun - Decision to build Nord Stream 2 was made https://amp.dw.com/en/gazprom-inks-plan-for-new-gas-pipeline-to-germany/a-18525292 https://amp.dw.com/en/gazprom-inks-plan-for-new-gas-pipeline... - 2017 Apr - Financing agreements signed https://www.ft.com/content/32898bae-28f3-11e7-9ec8-168383da43b7 https://www.ft.com/content/32898bae-28f3-11e7-9ec8-168383da4... - 2018 Jan - Germany officially grants permit https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nordstream-germany-permit-idUSKBN1FK15J https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nordstream-germany-permit... - 2018 May - US diplomats start talking about sanctions https://www.rferl.org/a/us-warns-russian-german-nord-stream-2-pipeline-risks-trigger-sanctions-security-concern-oudkirk/29233548.html https://www.rferl.org/a/us-warns-russian-german-nord-stream-... - 2018 Jul - Trump scolds NATO General Secretary over European energy relations with Russia https://youtu.be/Vpwkdmwui3k https://youtu.be/Vpwkdmwui3k - 2019 Jan - US ambassador to Germany threatens sanctions https://www.dw.com/en/us-ambassador-richard-grenell-threatens-german-firms-over-russian-pipeline/a-47062540 https://www.dw.com/en/us-ambassador-richard-grenell-threaten... - 2019 Dec - US sanctions Nord Stream 2 https://www.dailysabah.com/americas/2019/12/21/trump-signs-738b-defense-bill-including-sanctions-targeting-russia-turkey https://www.dailysabah.com/americas/2019/12/21/trump-signs-7... - 2020 Dec - US continues to protest, Germany continues to build https://www.thelocal.de/20201206/work-set-to-resume-on-nordstream-2-pipeline-despite-us-protest/ https://www.thelocal.de/20201206/work-set-to-resume-on-nords... - 2021 Jan - Trump sanctions the Russian ship building Nord Stream 2 on his last day at the office https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-nordstream-sanctions-idUSKBN29O1XL https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-nordstream-sanctions-... - 2021 Jan - EU sanctions it too https://www.commonspace.eu/news/european-parliament-approves-resolution-calling-halt-nord-stream-2 https://www.commonspace.eu/news/european-parliament-approves... - 2021 May - US waives the sanctions on Nord Stream 2 https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-waive-sanctions-firm-ceo-behind-russias-nord-stream-2-pipeline-source-2021-05-19/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-waive-sanctions-f... - 2021 Jun - First line construction is complete https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2021-06-10/construction-nord-stream-2s-first-line-completed https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2021-06-10/con... - 2021 Sep - The full construction of Nord Stream 2 is complete https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/final-piece-nord-stream-2-place-operator-says-2021-09-06/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/final-piece-nord-stream... - 2022 Jan - Nord Stream 2 registers German subsidiary as a part of the certification process https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/nord-stream-2-registers-german-subsidiary-certification-still-suspended-2022-01-26/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/nord-stream-2-regist... This is a result of over a decade of planning and construction with governments, corporations and companies of Germany, UK, France, Austria, Switzerland, Finland, Estonia, Sweden, Russia... and probably more countries to provide cheap and reliable and climate friendly energy source to Europe... and it is just an addition of 2 more pipes to a pipeline that is already operational for a decade now... and the construction is already complete. Give it a few years, the American media clowns will find something else to distract their peasants with; meanwhile the project will move a few hands, will see some rebranding and the sanctions will be quietly lifted. It has happened before and it will most definitely happen again. It will take something much more drastic than what's happening in Ukraine for that to not go through.