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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Feb 26, 2022

256 points by georgecmu 5y ago

dav_Oz 5y ago
So, this seems to be now as I suspected a massive blunder on the side of Putin, whatever his motivations, the US has really played well here, comparable to how Russia had played the US in Syria. The situation after the very risky offensive in Ukraine got stalled fairly quick. On the mid to long-term: The US has now consolidated its power in the EU and effectively severed Russia from Europe/the West. China can now take in Russia. Edit: This just my quick assessment, I could be wrong. The war is still on going and I hope it ends quick.
- cletus 5y ago
  - jamespwilliams 5y ago
    I don’t read anything celebratory in GP’s comment. And: > which is 100% his fault with no justification despite any provocation is at odds with your overall argument.
  - dav_Oz 5y ago
    Don't get me wrong. This is just a geopolitical assessment. I am not taking sides, here. I am not for any war aggression whatsoever. I'm just trying to see a broader picture in the fog of brutal war, here. Like the Yemen war being a proxy for an Iran-Saudi conflict, on the humanitarian side it is just horrible.
  - tedivm 5y ago
    The US has done a lot of horrible things, but this is an obvious case of made up pretexts. Russia knows we weren't letting Ukraine into NATO anytime soon (we would have already), and outside of that we've been playing pretty nicely with Russia these days. This is just imperialism.
    - voisin 5y ago
      I fully agree. > we've been playing pretty nicely with Russia these days Last President was quite the fan if I recall.
      - ceejayoz 5y ago
        Frankly, I wonder if the Ukraine plans were laid with the assumption of a second Trump term, and they decided to just go ahead anyways. The US response seems likely to have been... very different if he was still in power.
        chernevik 5y ago
        Nah, it was Trump who started sending Javelins in 2018. Also under whom the US military smashed a column of Russian mercenaries in Syria, killing 90 of them. Trump flattered Putin publicly, but his policies were never sympathetic to Russia.
        ceejayoz 5y ago
        > Nah, it was Trump who started sending Javelins in 2018. Ooof. That's an... interesting twist on the facts. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/12/i-would-like-you-to-do-us-a-favor-the-30-minute-phone-call-that-changed-trumps-presidency.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/12/i-would-like-you-to-do-us-a-... "Zelenskiy chatted about how he wanted to 'drain the swamp' in Kyiv and how he wished the European Union would provide more financial support. He told Trump that Ukraine was ready to buy more Javelin anti-tank missiles from the United States. The next 10 words that came out of Trump’s mouth — 'I would like you to do us a favor, though' — are what triggered the House impeachment inquiry that has imperiled his presidency." https://www.businessinsider.com/republicans-leaving-out-key-detail-trump-javelin-sale-to-ukraine-2019-11 https://www.businessinsider.com/republicans-leaving-out-key-... "At the time, Trump had placed roughly $400 million of congressionally-approved security assistance to Ukraine on hold, and the president is accused of dangling the aid over Zelensky as part of a broad scheme to pressure him into launching the investigations. The aid was ultimately released on September 11, less than a week after three House committees launched investigations into his administration's efforts to pressure Ukraine to help his reelection campaign." As for the mercenary incident, Americans came under attack by Syrian forces that included Russians. It was by no means a planned op. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/24/world/middleeast/american-commandos-russian-mercenaries-syria.html https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/24/world/middleeast/american...
  - dragonwriter 5y ago
    > Antagonizing Russia (which the US did, to be clear) Only in the sense that “not abandoning Eastern Europe so that Putin can invade or intimidate with threat of invasion with no plausible check” constitutes “antagonizing”.
  - lalaland1125 5y ago
    How exactly do you think the US antagonized Russia?
    - School-Cotton 5y ago
      Presumably, they meant courting Ukraine for NATO membership. How would the US react if, for example, China were planning to station troops and equipment in Canada? (I’m not trying to justify Putin’s actions here; just trying to understand the perspective).
      - qqtt 5y ago
        We already know how the USA would react. See the behavior in South America, and the Cuban missile crisis, bay of pigs, etc.
      - lalaland1125 5y ago
        NATO members have been directly bordering Russia through Estonia and Latvia for literally 18 years at this point with no harm or even the threat of harm to Russia. NATO members, as stable democracies, have zero interest in going into war with a nuclear power like Russia. Even now at the peak of tensions, every NATO member has repeatedly publicly pledged that no NATO troops will be involved in conflict. The idea that Russia's invasion of Ukraine is Russia acting to protect itself is the height of silliness. The better explanation for this war is much simpler: Putin has traditionally received a bump in approval ratings after his prior wars and was desperate for another boost after a long and harsh two years dealing with COVID-19.
- empressplay 5y ago
  I'm not convinced Russia is in a hurry here. Also, they have much heavier weapons they can use but have not yet done so because they don't want to use them if they don't have to, especially if the idea is to unite Ukraine with Russia (vaporizing Ukrainian soldiers en masse for example would be a bad look in that case) With no troops coming to the aid of Ukraine, the Russians have the luxury of time.
  - lalaland1125 5y ago
    > With no troops coming to the aid of Ukraine, the Russians have the luxury of time. There are no troops coming to Ukraine, but arms are streaming across the Polish border from NATO countries. Not to mention lots of Ukraine citizens rapidly training as militias as we speak. The longer Putin waits, the more weapons Ukraine will have.
    - spydum 5y ago
      Makes you wonder if that was the point? Get everyone all stirred up about a half hearted invasion so they dump a bunch of currency and weapons into the country to prop up the Ukrainians, then send your real a-list players in to seize the goods. Free resupply and upgrades from all your friends! Now you can move on to the next target.
      - l33t2328 5y ago
        As the ruble crashes and protests go off daily...
      - throwaway821909 5y ago
        I'm not an expert but I can't imagine it's worth it for that, factoring in sanctions, increased militarisation of surrounding countries + potential spread of NATO, casualties, Russian equipment being destroyed, equipment that doesn't fit their ammo/can't be supported/etc., and the probability that many of these weapons don't get seized and instead are used against them for years by rebels (the west has even implied they will support this with more - and the weapons we have sent are suited to this and not hugely valuable).
- vmception 5y ago
  Its Germans that are going to be in the cold, taking the inconvenience and difficulty to help sanction Russia via Swift with all EU member states, and disrupt their ability to purchase gas from Russia. US is specifically avoiding anything that would cause economic distress to Americans, this is in the President’s speech, and it is because the party will decisively lose politically later this year if there is more distress. Big win for US intelligence for sure! Messing with the fossil fuel markets is definitely what is required, amongst other things.
  - scaramanga 5y ago
    Climate change already requires that. So this gives us an interesting flavour of how seriously they are taking our most important threat :)
  - bluepizza 5y ago
    Maybe the Germans shouldn't have relied on a corrupt kleptocracy for energy.
    - g8oz 5y ago
      Right, better to rely on Middle Eastern despots.
      - stjohnswarts 5y ago
        Has the Middle East been pointing missiles at Western Europe for 6 decades?
      - ant6n 5y ago
        Wait, Middle Eastern despots produce renewable energy?
      - vmception 5y ago
        False dilemma And the person you replied to oversimplified the outcome as well
- scaramanga 5y ago
  Yeah, I think it's important to not whipsaw between idealising and devaluing Russian military capability. To a large extent, even if they lose, they win (eg. as the article says, Ukraine may need to withdraw from defensive lines in the east to defend Kiev, in which case Russia could make a land-grab there). There will be contingencies for all sorts of different definitions of "win". And in another sense, even if they win, they lose, because in fighting as best they can, they expend capital and expose all their weaknesses to view. And even if they achieve absolutely maximal war aims, like capturing the entire country, they are likely to find themselves in a situation that they are pretty unprepared for. I think states go to war hoping to achieve the maximal goals, but most prepared to achieve some subset of them before time, money, political support runs out.
stevespang 5y ago
Geonode 5y ago
I had assumed Putin was just testing to see how little effort was necessary to take Ukraine. If this actually turns into a failure, even if he's successful but it takes too long or costs too much, an era of world history will have clicked over, and the narrative of Russia as a boogey man, or as a peer adversary, will be over.
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  For a while, sure, much as with the fall of the USSR. But that lasted maybe about a decade before Russia was back in a similar role, after really reasserting itself beginning in the aftermath of the NATO-Yugoslavia war.
- empressplay 5y ago
  If nukes are seen as strictly a doomsday weapon (which in practicality they are since everyone will be on top of you if you use them) then we're back to conventional warfare, which is a lot more drawn out and complicated then most people today seem to think it is. Historically, campaigns like these can last months. It's probably a little early honestly to speculate on success or failure here.
  - emerged 5y ago
    That’s the big open question to me right now. If nobody wants to use nukes then they might as well not even exist. If we’re fighting WW3 without nukes to me it’s almost more terrifying.
    - the_snooze 5y ago
      The existence of nuclear weapons does really matter. If it weren't for the real threat of nuclear escalation, direct military intervention in Ukraine would likely be on the table. Nobody wants to use nuclear weapons, but nobody wants to go toe-to-toe with a nuclear state either.
    - bcrosby95 5y ago
      Nukes are what would keep NATO out of Russia, even if they got militarily involved. They basically guarantee that the country's leader must be deposed of internally.
miohtama 5y ago
The moral seems to be running low. Some videos: A caught saboteur https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1497580425086128132 https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1497580425086128132 Russian troops surrender to a local old guy in a village: https://twitter.com/kirillpartizan/status/1497317588673699841 https://twitter.com/kirillpartizan/status/149731758867369984... Somebody run away the convoy so fast that shoes were left behind https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1497591153645993994 https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1497591153645993994 Locals throwing Molotov’s coctails on passing Russian vehicles: https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1497572226643554304 https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1497572226643554304 Looks like there is a lack of fuel + food.
- vanusa 5y ago
  Locals throwing Molotov’s coctails on passing Russian vehicles And not very effectively, as the video indicates.
- SubiculumCode 5y ago
  There are reports that Russian tank drivers are selling the tank's fuel to locals and getting drunk on the proceeds, then abandoning their tanks e.g. [1] although I can't verify the veracity of these stories. [1] https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-troops-belarus-exercises-ukraine/31711282.html https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-troops-belarus-exercises-ukr...
  - throwaway821909 5y ago
    Just to say for anyone skimming through, that story is from before the war was declared, maybe they really believed they were there for exercises. Still, embarassing.
    - tim333 5y ago
      Also in Belarus, not Ukraine.
  - blunte 5y ago
    They can drink and hide and wait for the other Russian oligarchs whose wealth is being seriously threatened to remove their foolish leader and stop the idiotic war. That is more sensible than risking your life to kill your neighbor, all for the benefit of nothing but making a little man feel powerful.
11thEarlOfMar 5y ago
As a non-military minded observer, my first thoughts were, "How much resolve does the Russian soldier have in this war?" There must be many personal connections between Ukranian and Russian soldiers and citzens of the other country. Relatives, friends, business colleagues. As a soldier aiming his rifle or firing a barrage of rockets, is he wondering if the person on the other end is a cousin? Or college friend? It seems likely, similarly to the US Civil war. How much does that affect their resolve and is that playing out in the (reportedly) poor performance so far?
- thejackgoode 5y ago
  > It seems likely, similarly to the US Civil war This is actually pro-Russian position today. Both maidans happened to “disprove” this. And now a direct invasion. You don’t imagine how much hate is now on Ukrainian side
- ukraineally 5y ago
  >As a non-military minded observer, my first thoughts were, "How much resolve does the Russian soldier have in this war?" There must be many personal connections between Ukranian and Russian soldiers and citzens of the other country. Relatives, friends, business colleagues. As a soldier aiming his rifle or firing a barrage of rockets, is he wondering if the person on the other end is a cousin? Or college friend? This is much more of a factor than what you even say. A significant portion of troops are not interested in killing the enemy. Especially true of conscripts, some conscript platoons were near 100% incapable of shooting at the enemy that the enemy could slaughter them all. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S.L.A._Marshall https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S.L.A._Marshall He discovered that either people wont stick their head out of the hole and instead shoot at tree tops. Hoping to scare them off? Or they simply never shot their rifle even once. People certainly criticize this, but I criticize the critics. This guy is 100% right and a large part why conscription doesnt work. That changes up with general mobilization, if people are defending their own country like vietnam... it's just that much worse because those people are trying to repel invaders. They will shoot the invaders. Their lives have been interrupted and the interrupters must be killed. So when non-special forces troops actually enter the cities and come up against general mobilization. Russians will take huge losses because those troops will not shoot back directly at the enemy. I also have a theory, the huge list of allies of ukraine have special forces deployed in proxy war. We will never know the truth obviously. Russian troops who think they are fighting civilians are coming up against some of the best of the best in the world. Russia can't even tell the troops they might be coming up against other special forces. It would be tremendously demoralizing.
engineer_22 5y ago
Ukraine is a large country. Even Iraqi Baghdad took a month to fall to a massively superior US force all those years ago. This will be a protracted and bloody afair and with modern social media we'll get to see every gruesome moment.
- qqtt 5y ago
  Iraq invasion started on March 19 and Baghdad was formally occupied on April 9. If you look at the timeline, they were fighting over the airports close to the city just days before the city was occupied. Russia looks already to be encircling Kyiv and making attempts to gain control of the analogous airports.
  - tguvot 5y ago
    Russia might be looking into doing it, but they don't have enough fuel to do it so far (hence a bunch of neglected machinery that run out of fuel) . Railroads to russia were blown in last few days and there is a lot of pissed of people hunting down fuel tracks. Also Kyiv is kinda big city. Encircling and occupying it's two very different things
- optimalsolver 5y ago
  The fall of Baghdad was just the beginning of the Iraq War.
  - nkrisc 5y ago
    Which everyone seemed to think signaled the impending end of the war, as I recall.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
ukraineally 5y ago
It seems to me(not anything) that Russia's failures all around are quite unexpected. Their military is significantly less prepared than they ought to be. General mobilization vs russian military will become very rough for Russia when they bring reg troops into the cities. They aren't even at that stage. I was thinking about it today, conclusion is that there are proxy operators in the theatre. Ukraine hasn't been left alone military wise. Russia is also fighting how many other special forces of undeclared countries? Probably all of them? Russia thinks they are fighting against mom and dads, which they are, but they are also fighting against special forces who are probably wrecking the russian troops. They cant even account for this neither. To do so would destroy troop morale, add significant fear, and add tremendous time to the invasion. Considering this, the probability of even being successful in their plan to take ukraine is near 0. Sanctions and isolation will cripple them before they can overcome this massive degree of proxy war. russia is going to hurt so badly.
- cottager2 5y ago
  I’ve been following this closely and I haven’t seen any mention of non-Ukrainian forces in the country. Seems like pure speculation?
  - enkid 5y ago
    There's been some groups raising independent fighting forces in Syria and Chechnya, but I don't think they've gotten to Ukraine yet. Ukraine has been actively recruiting Westerners who have been willing to fight since 2014 as well.
    - ukraineally 5y ago
      >There's been some groups raising independent fighting forces in Syria and Chechnya, but I don't think they've gotten to Ukraine yet. Ukraine has been actively recruiting Westerners who have been willing to fight since 2014 as well. I have seen this, roughly 20,000 strong. But they have been specfically instructed to only shoot at nazis. That general ukrainian troops aren't allies, but they are not allowed to kill them.
me_me_mu_mu 5y ago
What is the actual goal here? Can someone please explain to me why this is all happening? What an absolute disgrace that we fight each other over BS orders. So many lives, especially of young people, lost for what?
- robbedpeter 5y ago
  Putin's whimsy. No other reason, no rational nation state with complex motivations lurking in the machinery of decision. This is 100% Putin with a wild hair up his ass, wanting to return Russia to a semblance of its soviet territories.
  - jprd 5y ago
    Vladdy has been in near isolation during COVID and looks unhinged. Did this on his own, no oligarchs. Now oligarchs are trapped, no assets, cut-off from most of their funds. Gambled, this time he lost it all.
    - robbedpeter 5y ago
      Good ol' Vlad might get himself killed over this. Then Russia will have to go through a legitimate election for at least one cycle, hopefully?
      - redisman 5y ago
        Hah
        robbedpeter 5y ago
        One can hope that history repeats. Tyrants and strongmen aren't known for dying peacefully in bed. Then again, a couple hundred billion dollars can buy a lot of bodyguards, tasters, and body doubles.
        5y ago
blunte 5y ago
On paper, Russia has significant military advantage. But if you look at the humans doing the fighting, I think you might see some very different levels of commitment and motivation. The Ukrainian troops are defending their homes. They are up against a wall, so this is a matter of survival. The Russian troops are fighting for something that likely many of them care nothing about. They are being made to risk their lives (and fight their cousins, so to speak). Not only may they have issues with fighting other similar folks, but they certainly don't _need_ to be risking their lives.
- dogma1138 5y ago
  Russia can’t do combined arms warfare they don’t have good communication lines even on a platoon level and pretty much no cross branch communications. They also seem to completely lack modern blue force tracking which is why they still have to rely on recognition stripes it wouldn’t surprise me if the Russians destroyed as much of their own armor as they did Ukrainian. And most importantly they seem to be completely inept at performing SAED something that the US and some of its allies especially Israel seem to have nearly perfected at least when it comes to Russian/Soviet AA. But you are also very much right about the morale problem. This is a surreal exchange between a Ukrainian and Russian soldiers it feels like a scene from a Cohen Brothers movie https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-tank-fuel-russia-kyiv-b2024003.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-tank...
  - ridiculous_leke 5y ago
    That's one weird exchange. It seems that the Russian soldiers weren't expecting the car to be armed. There are also videos where cars are moving past Russian tanks without any confrontation.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
    - dogma1138 5y ago
      It’s probably about the same experience as US troops would have if they were ordered to invade Canada. Also they were probably told not to treat the local population as hostile and even if they weren’t it’s usually not the default disposition of people soldiers or not. These guys have no fucking idea where they are or where they are headed or what their mission actually is and they probably can’t even call anyone up the chain of command to get new orders and they don’t seem to even want to do that.
Andrew_nenakhov 5y ago
This increasingly looks like a repeat of a Finnish war (1940), a colossal blunder when the Red Army couldn't push the Finns off their positions for almost two months, taking huge losses. Russia has a 'tradition' of stating what seems a 'small victorious war', aiming to boost popularity and support for the government, and then blundering badly - Russian-Japanese war (1905), Russian-Finland war (1940), Afghanistan invasion (1980), two Chechnya wars (1994, 1999). So far, Ukraine 'special operation' seems to be a one more addition to this ignominious list.
- enkid 5y ago
  Hopefully this turns out better for Kyiv then it did for Grozny...
  - dogma1138 5y ago
    There is almost no chance that Putin will pull off a Grozny that would have no support of the Russian population or the troops and would drag NATO into the conflict directly. Unless Putin has decided that 2022 would be the last year of record of the Gregorian calendar at least for a while he isn’t going to bring on the apocalypse. As horrible as this conflict is it’s pretty much the death knell of Russia as a superpower and probably for good. It almost lost in Georgia in 08 which brought it a lot of army reforms and its performance in Syria has emboldened them to think that they can play in the big leagues again but it seems that they aren’t able to perform on the modern battlefield at all. I have a feeling that a lot of people in the pentagon that have been concerned about Russia becoming a near peer to the US are now sighing in relief. I almost want that once this conflict is over for the pentagon to release a statement in jest that it officially downgrades Russia from near peer to junk like the credit agencies did.
    - adventured 5y ago
      It's clearly time to pivot China into Russia's spot as the globe's #2 military. That seemed to be the case prior to Ukraine, and based on the showing so far, Russia's military may have been exceptionally badly mismanaged by Putin over the years. What did they do with all that supposed upgrade / modernization money? Where'd they funnel it to? The klepto state klepto'd their own military - it'd be a fitting outcome.
rimutaka 5y ago
This is like a drunk ex bursting into your apartment, smashing furniture and demanding that you stop seeing that new boyfriend. Not a winning strategy by any means.
- rossdavidh 5y ago
  I actually think this is not a bad analogy.
  - tim333 5y ago
    Except in this case it's more like try to shoot dead the new boyfriend.
- thiht 5y ago
  And the new boyfriend firmly condemns and sends his prayers.
  - scaramanga 5y ago
    Good analogy, sheds light on the fact that the narcissistic abuser doesn't expect to win the girlfriend back with such a manoeuvre, he just wants to scare off any potential boyfriends and render her alone and helpless. In which case the victory will be purely sadistic punishment with a good chance that she has been so demoralized that she will fall back in to his lap "like a ripe fruit from a tree." It's why I disagree with various claims of Putin's "genius". I think these sort of stratagems are an instinctive part of the nature of narcissistic personalities.
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  Anthropomorphizing countries, even for analogies, isn't all that great generally, but: > This is like a drunk ex bursting into your apartment, smashing furniture and demanding that you stop seeing that new boyfriend. ...who you are not, in fact, seeing because they’ve said that, while they are interested, they won't get involved while you have so many unsettled issues with the ex.
legitster 5y ago
What honestly surprised me the most was the shockingly poor state of the equipment I have seen. Some of the APCs in particular look like they have been parked in a barn for 30 years (which they very well may have!) Given that exporting arms is a huge source of revenue for the government, I would have assumed they would have relatively modern inventory. But the cobbler's children have no shoes, I guess. This reeks of delusional leadership. They saw numbers on a page, and spent decades bragging about rusting inventory. Meanwhile, the West has actually rotated through three generations of inventory and have prepared for the opponent they thought they were getting
- SubiculumCode 5y ago
  It is either that, or send in replaceable shock troops to tease out defensive capabilities, then send in the real forces. I can imagine Russia, paranoid as always, may have wondered at want technological war machine wonders we were providing Ukraine.
  - FuckButtons 5y ago
    That seems more likely, Ukraine does not have unlimited reserves of munitions and only so many ambushes it can spring. That said, I don’t think the paratroops that have allegedly been shot down / defeated are usually replaceable, but are usually some of the better trained / equipped.
    - stnikolauswagne 5y ago
      I‘ve seen the „Ukraine is gonna run out of material at some point“ mentioned a bunch in the last few days and am genuinely curious: Aren‘t they getting resupplied by NATO? Trying to run a NATO aligned state who is not physically cut off from western supply lines out of munitions seems insane, am I missing something?
- 2OEH8eoCRo0 5y ago
  I've always wondered what condition their ICBMs and nuclear arsenal are in. Are they all rusting in silos in various states of disrepair? I'd imagine upkeep costs for these things would be astronomical considering the reported size of their nuclear arsenal.
VWWHFSfQ 5y ago
This website is the Institute for the Study of War [1]. 1. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institute_for_the_Study_of_War https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institute_for_the_Study_of_W...
nl 5y ago
There's a sad but perhaps unsaid factor in this war that many on HN seem unaware of. People seem to think that the fact that the Russian army is disorganized and slow is a problem. It's not - Putin doesn't care about the body count provided he comes away with a victory. If Ukraine is to win this war, the battle for air supremacy and a constant supply of anti-tank armour is much more important. If they can stop Russian armour using a combination of airpower and anti-tank weapons then they have a chance. I think both of these things have a critical dependence on Ukraine being able to show the ability to resist Russian advances. If they continue that, then Western support of arm shipments is likely to increase. Significantly, both the Germans and Dutch have started sending anti-tank weapons in the last 2 days.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
cgio 5y ago
Initially I was looking at this situation as a Napoleonic move, and it most probably still is. Nevertheless, to add some nuance to it, the situation, as it unfolds, plays to the core argument by Putin, in between the anti-nazi fusion with Zionismophobia crazy talk for his Russian/local version of conspiracy theorists. And that core argument was that he had no choice and that this a survival rather than an aggression move. At the moment, the struggles his army demonstrates, centered on lack of resources, lack of superiority on intelligence etc. are struggles related to capabilities where any of his advantages deteriorate with time. So he is attacking now, while there still is time. The alternative would be to wait 1 year and have Ukraine a member of Nato and a formidable enemy knocking on his door at any time? Doubt it, but it is his storyline to oligarchs. I hope this does not give Putin an argument but it goes to prove that I am at best a bad strategist, only coming up with explanations ex-post and he could be a mediocre strategist, but I sincerely doubt it given his history and his experience out of running a proxy war in Ukraine for 8 years. The withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan did not help either and is the only thing that would explain timing from my perspective. He knows/feels that US is pulling back in preparation for something, but whether that something is the explicitly stated Asia race against China or an easy win against Russia cannot be assessed. If it was the latter he played right into it. I would think it was worth to him waiting for next US elections, regardless the outcome, as US are hitting some known fault lines in their political discourse, EU could grow more dependent on energy front in the meantime etc.
dash2 5y ago
There’s a lot of whistling in the dark in these comments. The actual assessment of the report is quite bleak: yes, Russia has morale issues, and hasn’t achieved success with its initial plan, but it may be breaking through in the south, and ultimately it has enough forces to overwhelm the Ukrainians on every front.
- AlexandrB 5y ago
  Yes. Long term it's hard to imagine Ukraine holding off Russia. The best hope is that a costly invasion causes Putin enough domestic issues that he is forced into some kind of compromise.
  - dogma1138 5y ago
    If the west keeps supplying when with weapons they might actually hold at least way past the point where Russia can continue the fight. Bellingcat reports that the orders are to take Kyiv by Monday regardless the losses if Ukraine can hold out for longer they might just be in the clear. It’s also clear now that the Ukraine is getting direct intelligence from NATO especially from the global hawk drones and the sigint/elint aircraft it’s been flying their ability to avoid Russian offenses, hit key targets and to mount effective counter attack seem to indicate they do have map cheats enabled. The training they got from NATO forces seem to be paying off in spades too. Russia seem to be closer and closer to the point where their only winning condition is a Grozny scenario and if that happens then there is no chance that NATO would stand by. Conventional warfare with limited civilian casualties would be tolerated leveling cities wouldn’t this isn’t Syria. The EU and NATO knows that even if Russia takes Ukraine they won’t be able to hold it it might take another decade but it eventually would be free again even without major insurgency. Puppet regimes don’t hold and Ukrainians have been far more interconnected with the EU especially through Poland than say Belarus.
    - IgorPartola 5y ago
      To add to this, I got some unconfirmed reports from Kyiv and Lviv of “very obviously American operatives” supplying intelligence, training, etc. to Ukrainian forces.
throwthere 5y ago
Why is the main force holding back?
- baybal2 5y ago
  Because it isn't. Russian main force in Belarus is stuck with no fuel, and supplies. The rearguard units would likelly be even more soft, and incomplete, and they don't want to advance knowing it.
- PeterisP 5y ago
  They seem to be hitting logistics limitations already with the existing forces. However, it seem standard practice in militaries to have prolonged campaigns with a majority of your force backwards in reserve and rotating them; e.g. when your first units get worn down (e.g. being at 90% capacity due to casualties) if you hold them back and have fresh ones take the front, that helps.
  - tguvot 5y ago
    Rotation is not part of Russian strategy/approach. Bloodbath is. Common Russian expression is "woman will birth more". Also it looks like there were expectation that after initial cruise missiles strikes it will be walk in a park like in Crimea circa 2014. Mixed with delusions about state of Ukrainian military and general mood of population (big chunk of Russians sure that neo-nazi minority rule over rest of population for militia and population wants to be freed)
- pvaldes 5y ago
  A main concert for Putin could be to prevent a Russian civil unrest igniting at Moscow at any cost. This, Not Ukraine, or China, or NATO is probably the worse nightmare for him now.
justnotworthit 5y ago
Is this analysis mostly sourced on social media posts and Ukrainian gov statements?
haughty 5y ago
This is developing horribly for both Russia and Ukraine and the rest of us. It's pretty obvious that invasion was a mistake for Russia and it's pretty obvious that there is no way back. Putin cannot accept any compromise in this situation for political reasons nor can he accept defeat. Zelensky initially suggested something about neutrality guarantees, but now he has reached the bravery and bravado level of Djohar Dudayev. Not that neutrality guarantees would ever pass Rada in the first place. Everyone is cheering this nonsensical war on the side lines. Civilians are being encouraged to throw molotovs at Russian invaders and automatic weaponry is being issued indiscriminately. Every country is giving Ukraine weaponry and keeps buying Russian energy. Both sides have no way back, nobody is going to stop anyone. Ukrainians are extremely proud and suicidal (just look their anthem - "Ukraine hasn't perished YET"). The war will rage on and it will the biggest humanitarian crisis our generation has seen..
lobocinza 5y ago
Putin is fucked. He bluffed with a bad hand with the goal of improving his approval rate and Ukraine called with a better hand. He retreats, he lose. He escalate further, he loses. His only exit is to save face with an ambiguous peace deal while he still can because nobody wants to play russian roulette or nuclear poker. Going nuclear is an even worse bluff. He is a psycho but have kids to worry about. And even if he became completely bat shit, he is encircled by corrupt morons and not suicidal fanatics, he will be murdered.

256 points by georgecmu 5y ago

So, this seems to be now as I suspected a massive blunder on the side of Putin, whatever his motivations, the US has really played well here, comparable to how Russia had played the US in Syria. The situation after the very risky offensive in Ukraine got stalled fairly quick. On the mid to long-term: The US has now consolidated its power in the EU and effectively severed Russia from Europe/the West. China can now take in Russia. Edit: This just my quick assessment, I could be wrong. The war is still on going and I hope it ends quick.

cletus 5y ago
- jamespwilliams 5y ago
  I don’t read anything celebratory in GP’s comment. And: > which is 100% his fault with no justification despite any provocation is at odds with your overall argument.
- dav_Oz 5y ago
  Don't get me wrong. This is just a geopolitical assessment. I am not taking sides, here. I am not for any war aggression whatsoever. I'm just trying to see a broader picture in the fog of brutal war, here. Like the Yemen war being a proxy for an Iran-Saudi conflict, on the humanitarian side it is just horrible.
- tedivm 5y ago
  The US has done a lot of horrible things, but this is an obvious case of made up pretexts. Russia knows we weren't letting Ukraine into NATO anytime soon (we would have already), and outside of that we've been playing pretty nicely with Russia these days. This is just imperialism.
  - voisin 5y ago
    I fully agree. > we've been playing pretty nicely with Russia these days Last President was quite the fan if I recall.
    - ceejayoz 5y ago
      Frankly, I wonder if the Ukraine plans were laid with the assumption of a second Trump term, and they decided to just go ahead anyways. The US response seems likely to have been... very different if he was still in power.
      - chernevik 5y ago
        Nah, it was Trump who started sending Javelins in 2018. Also under whom the US military smashed a column of Russian mercenaries in Syria, killing 90 of them. Trump flattered Putin publicly, but his policies were never sympathetic to Russia.
        ceejayoz 5y ago
        > Nah, it was Trump who started sending Javelins in 2018. Ooof. That's an... interesting twist on the facts. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/12/i-would-like-you-to-do-us-a-favor-the-30-minute-phone-call-that-changed-trumps-presidency.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/12/i-would-like-you-to-do-us-a-... "Zelenskiy chatted about how he wanted to 'drain the swamp' in Kyiv and how he wished the European Union would provide more financial support. He told Trump that Ukraine was ready to buy more Javelin anti-tank missiles from the United States. The next 10 words that came out of Trump’s mouth — 'I would like you to do us a favor, though' — are what triggered the House impeachment inquiry that has imperiled his presidency." https://www.businessinsider.com/republicans-leaving-out-key-detail-trump-javelin-sale-to-ukraine-2019-11 https://www.businessinsider.com/republicans-leaving-out-key-... "At the time, Trump had placed roughly $400 million of congressionally-approved security assistance to Ukraine on hold, and the president is accused of dangling the aid over Zelensky as part of a broad scheme to pressure him into launching the investigations. The aid was ultimately released on September 11, less than a week after three House committees launched investigations into his administration's efforts to pressure Ukraine to help his reelection campaign." As for the mercenary incident, Americans came under attack by Syrian forces that included Russians. It was by no means a planned op. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/24/world/middleeast/american-commandos-russian-mercenaries-syria.html https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/24/world/middleeast/american...
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  > Antagonizing Russia (which the US did, to be clear) Only in the sense that “not abandoning Eastern Europe so that Putin can invade or intimidate with threat of invasion with no plausible check” constitutes “antagonizing”.
- lalaland1125 5y ago
  How exactly do you think the US antagonized Russia?
  - School-Cotton 5y ago
    Presumably, they meant courting Ukraine for NATO membership. How would the US react if, for example, China were planning to station troops and equipment in Canada? (I’m not trying to justify Putin’s actions here; just trying to understand the perspective).
    - qqtt 5y ago
      We already know how the USA would react. See the behavior in South America, and the Cuban missile crisis, bay of pigs, etc.
    - lalaland1125 5y ago
      NATO members have been directly bordering Russia through Estonia and Latvia for literally 18 years at this point with no harm or even the threat of harm to Russia. NATO members, as stable democracies, have zero interest in going into war with a nuclear power like Russia. Even now at the peak of tensions, every NATO member has repeatedly publicly pledged that no NATO troops will be involved in conflict. The idea that Russia's invasion of Ukraine is Russia acting to protect itself is the height of silliness. The better explanation for this war is much simpler: Putin has traditionally received a bump in approval ratings after his prior wars and was desperate for another boost after a long and harsh two years dealing with COVID-19.
empressplay 5y ago
I'm not convinced Russia is in a hurry here. Also, they have much heavier weapons they can use but have not yet done so because they don't want to use them if they don't have to, especially if the idea is to unite Ukraine with Russia (vaporizing Ukrainian soldiers en masse for example would be a bad look in that case) With no troops coming to the aid of Ukraine, the Russians have the luxury of time.
- lalaland1125 5y ago
  > With no troops coming to the aid of Ukraine, the Russians have the luxury of time. There are no troops coming to Ukraine, but arms are streaming across the Polish border from NATO countries. Not to mention lots of Ukraine citizens rapidly training as militias as we speak. The longer Putin waits, the more weapons Ukraine will have.
  - spydum 5y ago
    Makes you wonder if that was the point? Get everyone all stirred up about a half hearted invasion so they dump a bunch of currency and weapons into the country to prop up the Ukrainians, then send your real a-list players in to seize the goods. Free resupply and upgrades from all your friends! Now you can move on to the next target.
    - l33t2328 5y ago
      As the ruble crashes and protests go off daily...
    - throwaway821909 5y ago
      I'm not an expert but I can't imagine it's worth it for that, factoring in sanctions, increased militarisation of surrounding countries + potential spread of NATO, casualties, Russian equipment being destroyed, equipment that doesn't fit their ammo/can't be supported/etc., and the probability that many of these weapons don't get seized and instead are used against them for years by rebels (the west has even implied they will support this with more - and the weapons we have sent are suited to this and not hugely valuable).
vmception 5y ago
Its Germans that are going to be in the cold, taking the inconvenience and difficulty to help sanction Russia via Swift with all EU member states, and disrupt their ability to purchase gas from Russia. US is specifically avoiding anything that would cause economic distress to Americans, this is in the President’s speech, and it is because the party will decisively lose politically later this year if there is more distress. Big win for US intelligence for sure! Messing with the fossil fuel markets is definitely what is required, amongst other things.
- scaramanga 5y ago
  Climate change already requires that. So this gives us an interesting flavour of how seriously they are taking our most important threat :)
- bluepizza 5y ago
  Maybe the Germans shouldn't have relied on a corrupt kleptocracy for energy.
  - g8oz 5y ago
    Right, better to rely on Middle Eastern despots.
    - stjohnswarts 5y ago
      Has the Middle East been pointing missiles at Western Europe for 6 decades?
    - ant6n 5y ago
      Wait, Middle Eastern despots produce renewable energy?
    - vmception 5y ago
      False dilemma And the person you replied to oversimplified the outcome as well
scaramanga 5y ago
Yeah, I think it's important to not whipsaw between idealising and devaluing Russian military capability. To a large extent, even if they lose, they win (eg. as the article says, Ukraine may need to withdraw from defensive lines in the east to defend Kiev, in which case Russia could make a land-grab there). There will be contingencies for all sorts of different definitions of "win". And in another sense, even if they win, they lose, because in fighting as best they can, they expend capital and expose all their weaknesses to view. And even if they achieve absolutely maximal war aims, like capturing the entire country, they are likely to find themselves in a situation that they are pretty unprepared for. I think states go to war hoping to achieve the maximal goals, but most prepared to achieve some subset of them before time, money, political support runs out.

stevespang 5y ago

Geonode 5y ago

I had assumed Putin was just testing to see how little effort was necessary to take Ukraine. If this actually turns into a failure, even if he's successful but it takes too long or costs too much, an era of world history will have clicked over, and the narrative of Russia as a boogey man, or as a peer adversary, will be over.

dragonwriter 5y ago
For a while, sure, much as with the fall of the USSR. But that lasted maybe about a decade before Russia was back in a similar role, after really reasserting itself beginning in the aftermath of the NATO-Yugoslavia war.
empressplay 5y ago
If nukes are seen as strictly a doomsday weapon (which in practicality they are since everyone will be on top of you if you use them) then we're back to conventional warfare, which is a lot more drawn out and complicated then most people today seem to think it is. Historically, campaigns like these can last months. It's probably a little early honestly to speculate on success or failure here.
- emerged 5y ago
  That’s the big open question to me right now. If nobody wants to use nukes then they might as well not even exist. If we’re fighting WW3 without nukes to me it’s almost more terrifying.
  - the_snooze 5y ago
    The existence of nuclear weapons does really matter. If it weren't for the real threat of nuclear escalation, direct military intervention in Ukraine would likely be on the table. Nobody wants to use nuclear weapons, but nobody wants to go toe-to-toe with a nuclear state either.
  - bcrosby95 5y ago
    Nukes are what would keep NATO out of Russia, even if they got militarily involved. They basically guarantee that the country's leader must be deposed of internally.

miohtama 5y ago

The moral seems to be running low. Some videos: A caught saboteur https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1497580425086128132 https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1497580425086128132 Russian troops surrender to a local old guy in a village: https://twitter.com/kirillpartizan/status/1497317588673699841 https://twitter.com/kirillpartizan/status/149731758867369984... Somebody run away the convoy so fast that shoes were left behind https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1497591153645993994 https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1497591153645993994 Locals throwing Molotov’s coctails on passing Russian vehicles: https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1497572226643554304 https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1497572226643554304 Looks like there is a lack of fuel + food.

vanusa 5y ago
Locals throwing Molotov’s coctails on passing Russian vehicles And not very effectively, as the video indicates.
SubiculumCode 5y ago
There are reports that Russian tank drivers are selling the tank's fuel to locals and getting drunk on the proceeds, then abandoning their tanks e.g. [1] although I can't verify the veracity of these stories. [1] https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-troops-belarus-exercises-ukraine/31711282.html https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-troops-belarus-exercises-ukr...
- throwaway821909 5y ago
  Just to say for anyone skimming through, that story is from before the war was declared, maybe they really believed they were there for exercises. Still, embarassing.
  - tim333 5y ago
    Also in Belarus, not Ukraine.
- blunte 5y ago
  They can drink and hide and wait for the other Russian oligarchs whose wealth is being seriously threatened to remove their foolish leader and stop the idiotic war. That is more sensible than risking your life to kill your neighbor, all for the benefit of nothing but making a little man feel powerful.

11thEarlOfMar 5y ago

As a non-military minded observer, my first thoughts were, "How much resolve does the Russian soldier have in this war?" There must be many personal connections between Ukranian and Russian soldiers and citzens of the other country. Relatives, friends, business colleagues. As a soldier aiming his rifle or firing a barrage of rockets, is he wondering if the person on the other end is a cousin? Or college friend? It seems likely, similarly to the US Civil war. How much does that affect their resolve and is that playing out in the (reportedly) poor performance so far?

thejackgoode 5y ago
> It seems likely, similarly to the US Civil war This is actually pro-Russian position today. Both maidans happened to “disprove” this. And now a direct invasion. You don’t imagine how much hate is now on Ukrainian side
ukraineally 5y ago
>As a non-military minded observer, my first thoughts were, "How much resolve does the Russian soldier have in this war?" There must be many personal connections between Ukranian and Russian soldiers and citzens of the other country. Relatives, friends, business colleagues. As a soldier aiming his rifle or firing a barrage of rockets, is he wondering if the person on the other end is a cousin? Or college friend? This is much more of a factor than what you even say. A significant portion of troops are not interested in killing the enemy. Especially true of conscripts, some conscript platoons were near 100% incapable of shooting at the enemy that the enemy could slaughter them all. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S.L.A._Marshall https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S.L.A._Marshall He discovered that either people wont stick their head out of the hole and instead shoot at tree tops. Hoping to scare them off? Or they simply never shot their rifle even once. People certainly criticize this, but I criticize the critics. This guy is 100% right and a large part why conscription doesnt work. That changes up with general mobilization, if people are defending their own country like vietnam... it's just that much worse because those people are trying to repel invaders. They will shoot the invaders. Their lives have been interrupted and the interrupters must be killed. So when non-special forces troops actually enter the cities and come up against general mobilization. Russians will take huge losses because those troops will not shoot back directly at the enemy. I also have a theory, the huge list of allies of ukraine have special forces deployed in proxy war. We will never know the truth obviously. Russian troops who think they are fighting civilians are coming up against some of the best of the best in the world. Russia can't even tell the troops they might be coming up against other special forces. It would be tremendously demoralizing.

engineer_22 5y ago

Ukraine is a large country. Even Iraqi Baghdad took a month to fall to a massively superior US force all those years ago. This will be a protracted and bloody afair and with modern social media we'll get to see every gruesome moment.

qqtt 5y ago
Iraq invasion started on March 19 and Baghdad was formally occupied on April 9. If you look at the timeline, they were fighting over the airports close to the city just days before the city was occupied. Russia looks already to be encircling Kyiv and making attempts to gain control of the analogous airports.
- tguvot 5y ago
  Russia might be looking into doing it, but they don't have enough fuel to do it so far (hence a bunch of neglected machinery that run out of fuel) . Railroads to russia were blown in last few days and there is a lot of pissed of people hunting down fuel tracks. Also Kyiv is kinda big city. Encircling and occupying it's two very different things
optimalsolver 5y ago
The fall of Baghdad was just the beginning of the Iraq War.
- nkrisc 5y ago
  Which everyone seemed to think signaled the impending end of the war, as I recall.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]

ukraineally 5y ago

It seems to me(not anything) that Russia's failures all around are quite unexpected. Their military is significantly less prepared than they ought to be. General mobilization vs russian military will become very rough for Russia when they bring reg troops into the cities. They aren't even at that stage. I was thinking about it today, conclusion is that there are proxy operators in the theatre. Ukraine hasn't been left alone military wise. Russia is also fighting how many other special forces of undeclared countries? Probably all of them? Russia thinks they are fighting against mom and dads, which they are, but they are also fighting against special forces who are probably wrecking the russian troops. They cant even account for this neither. To do so would destroy troop morale, add significant fear, and add tremendous time to the invasion. Considering this, the probability of even being successful in their plan to take ukraine is near 0. Sanctions and isolation will cripple them before they can overcome this massive degree of proxy war. russia is going to hurt so badly.

cottager2 5y ago
I’ve been following this closely and I haven’t seen any mention of non-Ukrainian forces in the country. Seems like pure speculation?
- enkid 5y ago
  There's been some groups raising independent fighting forces in Syria and Chechnya, but I don't think they've gotten to Ukraine yet. Ukraine has been actively recruiting Westerners who have been willing to fight since 2014 as well.
  - ukraineally 5y ago
    >There's been some groups raising independent fighting forces in Syria and Chechnya, but I don't think they've gotten to Ukraine yet. Ukraine has been actively recruiting Westerners who have been willing to fight since 2014 as well. I have seen this, roughly 20,000 strong. But they have been specfically instructed to only shoot at nazis. That general ukrainian troops aren't allies, but they are not allowed to kill them.

me_me_mu_mu 5y ago

What is the actual goal here? Can someone please explain to me why this is all happening? What an absolute disgrace that we fight each other over BS orders. So many lives, especially of young people, lost for what?

robbedpeter 5y ago
Putin's whimsy. No other reason, no rational nation state with complex motivations lurking in the machinery of decision. This is 100% Putin with a wild hair up his ass, wanting to return Russia to a semblance of its soviet territories.
- jprd 5y ago
  Vladdy has been in near isolation during COVID and looks unhinged. Did this on his own, no oligarchs. Now oligarchs are trapped, no assets, cut-off from most of their funds. Gambled, this time he lost it all.
  - robbedpeter 5y ago
    Good ol' Vlad might get himself killed over this. Then Russia will have to go through a legitimate election for at least one cycle, hopefully?
    - redisman 5y ago
      Hah
      - robbedpeter 5y ago
        One can hope that history repeats. Tyrants and strongmen aren't known for dying peacefully in bed. Then again, a couple hundred billion dollars can buy a lot of bodyguards, tasters, and body doubles.
        5y ago

blunte 5y ago

On paper, Russia has significant military advantage. But if you look at the humans doing the fighting, I think you might see some very different levels of commitment and motivation. The Ukrainian troops are defending their homes. They are up against a wall, so this is a matter of survival. The Russian troops are fighting for something that likely many of them care nothing about. They are being made to risk their lives (and fight their cousins, so to speak). Not only may they have issues with fighting other similar folks, but they certainly don't _need_ to be risking their lives.

dogma1138 5y ago
Russia can’t do combined arms warfare they don’t have good communication lines even on a platoon level and pretty much no cross branch communications. They also seem to completely lack modern blue force tracking which is why they still have to rely on recognition stripes it wouldn’t surprise me if the Russians destroyed as much of their own armor as they did Ukrainian. And most importantly they seem to be completely inept at performing SAED something that the US and some of its allies especially Israel seem to have nearly perfected at least when it comes to Russian/Soviet AA. But you are also very much right about the morale problem. This is a surreal exchange between a Ukrainian and Russian soldiers it feels like a scene from a Cohen Brothers movie https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-tank-fuel-russia-kyiv-b2024003.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-tank...
- ridiculous_leke 5y ago
  That's one weird exchange. It seems that the Russian soldiers weren't expecting the car to be armed. There are also videos where cars are moving past Russian tanks without any confrontation.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - dogma1138 5y ago
    It’s probably about the same experience as US troops would have if they were ordered to invade Canada. Also they were probably told not to treat the local population as hostile and even if they weren’t it’s usually not the default disposition of people soldiers or not. These guys have no fucking idea where they are or where they are headed or what their mission actually is and they probably can’t even call anyone up the chain of command to get new orders and they don’t seem to even want to do that.

Andrew_nenakhov 5y ago

This increasingly looks like a repeat of a Finnish war (1940), a colossal blunder when the Red Army couldn't push the Finns off their positions for almost two months, taking huge losses. Russia has a 'tradition' of stating what seems a 'small victorious war', aiming to boost popularity and support for the government, and then blundering badly - Russian-Japanese war (1905), Russian-Finland war (1940), Afghanistan invasion (1980), two Chechnya wars (1994, 1999). So far, Ukraine 'special operation' seems to be a one more addition to this ignominious list.

enkid 5y ago
Hopefully this turns out better for Kyiv then it did for Grozny...
- dogma1138 5y ago
  There is almost no chance that Putin will pull off a Grozny that would have no support of the Russian population or the troops and would drag NATO into the conflict directly. Unless Putin has decided that 2022 would be the last year of record of the Gregorian calendar at least for a while he isn’t going to bring on the apocalypse. As horrible as this conflict is it’s pretty much the death knell of Russia as a superpower and probably for good. It almost lost in Georgia in 08 which brought it a lot of army reforms and its performance in Syria has emboldened them to think that they can play in the big leagues again but it seems that they aren’t able to perform on the modern battlefield at all. I have a feeling that a lot of people in the pentagon that have been concerned about Russia becoming a near peer to the US are now sighing in relief. I almost want that once this conflict is over for the pentagon to release a statement in jest that it officially downgrades Russia from near peer to junk like the credit agencies did.
  - adventured 5y ago
    It's clearly time to pivot China into Russia's spot as the globe's #2 military. That seemed to be the case prior to Ukraine, and based on the showing so far, Russia's military may have been exceptionally badly mismanaged by Putin over the years. What did they do with all that supposed upgrade / modernization money? Where'd they funnel it to? The klepto state klepto'd their own military - it'd be a fitting outcome.

rimutaka 5y ago

This is like a drunk ex bursting into your apartment, smashing furniture and demanding that you stop seeing that new boyfriend. Not a winning strategy by any means.

rossdavidh 5y ago
I actually think this is not a bad analogy.
- tim333 5y ago
  Except in this case it's more like try to shoot dead the new boyfriend.
thiht 5y ago
And the new boyfriend firmly condemns and sends his prayers.
- scaramanga 5y ago
  Good analogy, sheds light on the fact that the narcissistic abuser doesn't expect to win the girlfriend back with such a manoeuvre, he just wants to scare off any potential boyfriends and render her alone and helpless. In which case the victory will be purely sadistic punishment with a good chance that she has been so demoralized that she will fall back in to his lap "like a ripe fruit from a tree." It's why I disagree with various claims of Putin's "genius". I think these sort of stratagems are an instinctive part of the nature of narcissistic personalities.
dragonwriter 5y ago
Anthropomorphizing countries, even for analogies, isn't all that great generally, but: > This is like a drunk ex bursting into your apartment, smashing furniture and demanding that you stop seeing that new boyfriend. ...who you are not, in fact, seeing because they’ve said that, while they are interested, they won't get involved while you have so many unsettled issues with the ex.

legitster 5y ago

What honestly surprised me the most was the shockingly poor state of the equipment I have seen. Some of the APCs in particular look like they have been parked in a barn for 30 years (which they very well may have!) Given that exporting arms is a huge source of revenue for the government, I would have assumed they would have relatively modern inventory. But the cobbler's children have no shoes, I guess. This reeks of delusional leadership. They saw numbers on a page, and spent decades bragging about rusting inventory. Meanwhile, the West has actually rotated through three generations of inventory and have prepared for the opponent they thought they were getting

SubiculumCode 5y ago
It is either that, or send in replaceable shock troops to tease out defensive capabilities, then send in the real forces. I can imagine Russia, paranoid as always, may have wondered at want technological war machine wonders we were providing Ukraine.
- FuckButtons 5y ago
  That seems more likely, Ukraine does not have unlimited reserves of munitions and only so many ambushes it can spring. That said, I don’t think the paratroops that have allegedly been shot down / defeated are usually replaceable, but are usually some of the better trained / equipped.
  - stnikolauswagne 5y ago
    I‘ve seen the „Ukraine is gonna run out of material at some point“ mentioned a bunch in the last few days and am genuinely curious: Aren‘t they getting resupplied by NATO? Trying to run a NATO aligned state who is not physically cut off from western supply lines out of munitions seems insane, am I missing something?
2OEH8eoCRo0 5y ago
I've always wondered what condition their ICBMs and nuclear arsenal are in. Are they all rusting in silos in various states of disrepair? I'd imagine upkeep costs for these things would be astronomical considering the reported size of their nuclear arsenal.

VWWHFSfQ 5y ago

This website is the Institute for the Study of War [1]. 1. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institute_for_the_Study_of_War https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institute_for_the_Study_of_W...

nl 5y ago

There's a sad but perhaps unsaid factor in this war that many on HN seem unaware of. People seem to think that the fact that the Russian army is disorganized and slow is a problem. It's not - Putin doesn't care about the body count provided he comes away with a victory. If Ukraine is to win this war, the battle for air supremacy and a constant supply of anti-tank armour is much more important. If they can stop Russian armour using a combination of airpower and anti-tank weapons then they have a chance. I think both of these things have a critical dependence on Ukraine being able to show the ability to resist Russian advances. If they continue that, then Western support of arm shipments is likely to increase. Significantly, both the Germans and Dutch have started sending anti-tank weapons in the last 2 days.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

cgio 5y ago

Initially I was looking at this situation as a Napoleonic move, and it most probably still is. Nevertheless, to add some nuance to it, the situation, as it unfolds, plays to the core argument by Putin, in between the anti-nazi fusion with Zionismophobia crazy talk for his Russian/local version of conspiracy theorists. And that core argument was that he had no choice and that this a survival rather than an aggression move. At the moment, the struggles his army demonstrates, centered on lack of resources, lack of superiority on intelligence etc. are struggles related to capabilities where any of his advantages deteriorate with time. So he is attacking now, while there still is time. The alternative would be to wait 1 year and have Ukraine a member of Nato and a formidable enemy knocking on his door at any time? Doubt it, but it is his storyline to oligarchs. I hope this does not give Putin an argument but it goes to prove that I am at best a bad strategist, only coming up with explanations ex-post and he could be a mediocre strategist, but I sincerely doubt it given his history and his experience out of running a proxy war in Ukraine for 8 years. The withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan did not help either and is the only thing that would explain timing from my perspective. He knows/feels that US is pulling back in preparation for something, but whether that something is the explicitly stated Asia race against China or an easy win against Russia cannot be assessed. If it was the latter he played right into it. I would think it was worth to him waiting for next US elections, regardless the outcome, as US are hitting some known fault lines in their political discourse, EU could grow more dependent on energy front in the meantime etc.

dash2 5y ago

There’s a lot of whistling in the dark in these comments. The actual assessment of the report is quite bleak: yes, Russia has morale issues, and hasn’t achieved success with its initial plan, but it may be breaking through in the south, and ultimately it has enough forces to overwhelm the Ukrainians on every front.

AlexandrB 5y ago
Yes. Long term it's hard to imagine Ukraine holding off Russia. The best hope is that a costly invasion causes Putin enough domestic issues that he is forced into some kind of compromise.
- dogma1138 5y ago
  If the west keeps supplying when with weapons they might actually hold at least way past the point where Russia can continue the fight. Bellingcat reports that the orders are to take Kyiv by Monday regardless the losses if Ukraine can hold out for longer they might just be in the clear. It’s also clear now that the Ukraine is getting direct intelligence from NATO especially from the global hawk drones and the sigint/elint aircraft it’s been flying their ability to avoid Russian offenses, hit key targets and to mount effective counter attack seem to indicate they do have map cheats enabled. The training they got from NATO forces seem to be paying off in spades too. Russia seem to be closer and closer to the point where their only winning condition is a Grozny scenario and if that happens then there is no chance that NATO would stand by. Conventional warfare with limited civilian casualties would be tolerated leveling cities wouldn’t this isn’t Syria. The EU and NATO knows that even if Russia takes Ukraine they won’t be able to hold it it might take another decade but it eventually would be free again even without major insurgency. Puppet regimes don’t hold and Ukrainians have been far more interconnected with the EU especially through Poland than say Belarus.
  - IgorPartola 5y ago
    To add to this, I got some unconfirmed reports from Kyiv and Lviv of “very obviously American operatives” supplying intelligence, training, etc. to Ukrainian forces.

throwthere 5y ago

Why is the main force holding back?

baybal2 5y ago
Because it isn't. Russian main force in Belarus is stuck with no fuel, and supplies. The rearguard units would likelly be even more soft, and incomplete, and they don't want to advance knowing it.
PeterisP 5y ago
They seem to be hitting logistics limitations already with the existing forces. However, it seem standard practice in militaries to have prolonged campaigns with a majority of your force backwards in reserve and rotating them; e.g. when your first units get worn down (e.g. being at 90% capacity due to casualties) if you hold them back and have fresh ones take the front, that helps.
- tguvot 5y ago
  Rotation is not part of Russian strategy/approach. Bloodbath is. Common Russian expression is "woman will birth more". Also it looks like there were expectation that after initial cruise missiles strikes it will be walk in a park like in Crimea circa 2014. Mixed with delusions about state of Ukrainian military and general mood of population (big chunk of Russians sure that neo-nazi minority rule over rest of population for militia and population wants to be freed)
pvaldes 5y ago
A main concert for Putin could be to prevent a Russian civil unrest igniting at Moscow at any cost. This, Not Ukraine, or China, or NATO is probably the worse nightmare for him now.

justnotworthit 5y ago

Is this analysis mostly sourced on social media posts and Ukrainian gov statements?

haughty 5y ago

This is developing horribly for both Russia and Ukraine and the rest of us. It's pretty obvious that invasion was a mistake for Russia and it's pretty obvious that there is no way back. Putin cannot accept any compromise in this situation for political reasons nor can he accept defeat. Zelensky initially suggested something about neutrality guarantees, but now he has reached the bravery and bravado level of Djohar Dudayev. Not that neutrality guarantees would ever pass Rada in the first place. Everyone is cheering this nonsensical war on the side lines. Civilians are being encouraged to throw molotovs at Russian invaders and automatic weaponry is being issued indiscriminately. Every country is giving Ukraine weaponry and keeps buying Russian energy. Both sides have no way back, nobody is going to stop anyone. Ukrainians are extremely proud and suicidal (just look their anthem - "Ukraine hasn't perished YET"). The war will rage on and it will the biggest humanitarian crisis our generation has seen..

lobocinza 5y ago

Putin is fucked. He bluffed with a bad hand with the goal of improving his approval rate and Ukraine called with a better hand. He retreats, he lose. He escalate further, he loses. His only exit is to save face with an ambiguous peace deal while he still can because nobody wants to play russian roulette or nuclear poker. Going nuclear is an even worse bluff. He is a psycho but have kids to worry about. And even if he became completely bat shit, he is encircled by corrupt morons and not suicidal fanatics, he will be murdered.