11 ms·
A $5B hoard of aluminum
- tokai 5y agoSo the 'Buying spree' graph is apparently showing a surge of import. But it really doesn't show anything like that. Or am I just misunderstanding something?
- gshubert17 5y agoThe chart legend says it represents the total value of exports to Vietnam from its trading partners, equivalent to Vietnam's imports. In 2015 and 2016 Vietnam's imports of aluminum were much larger than previous years and later years. The excess value over $4B (the level of subsequent years' imports) totals over $6B. I took 2015-16 to represent the surge of imports. The price of Al seems to have been around 80 cents a pound at the end of 2016, http://m.kitco.com/getChartPage?symbol=al&width=438&height=235&unit=pound¤cy=usd http://m.kitco.com/getChartPage?symbol=al&width=438&height=2... (then select 5 years). At $1,600 a ton, that's nearly 4 million tons. This more than covers the 1.8 million tons in the GVA stockpile.
- Physkal 5y agoWhy would the aluminum stock not be useful after 10 years, oxidation?
- goldenkey 5y agoAluminum is very oxidation resistant once the initial thin oxide layer forms. I doubt that is the issue. I would guess the reason is similar and would be weathering/erosion due to being outside and pelted with sand/rain/etc.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- Cthulhu_ 5y agoYeah I was going to say, repeated rain (which is slightly acidic) and the like will keep pelting it. I mean the lifetime can probably be extended if they store it inside a building, but that's a lot of building space.
- ZiiS 5y agoAluminum "scrap" is still very useful and valuable.
- londons_explore 5y agoIt might be in specific forms ready to be processed - eg. blocks of specific dimensions or weights. After 10 years outside, it's probably covered in dust and grime, and gotten an oxide layer. It probably isn't immediately sellable to a car factory... But it could be reprocessed very inexpensively and become sellable. The loss of value would probably be well under 1%. People saying "it's so old, it's basically scrap" either don't know what they're talking about, or they're deliberately deceiving - and being market traders, I suspect the latter in the hopes of pushing market prices higher.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- orlp 5y ago> and gotten an oxide layer Aluminium has an oxide layer the second it comes into contact with air.
- londons_explore 5y agoAcids can make that much thicker. Acids that exist in the environment in small amounts...
- labawi 5y agoLike sulfur / sulfuric acid from all the coal we're burning.
- marcosdumay 5y agoIt keeps increasing (exponentially slower, thus with a finite total depth) even without any other chemical. Anyway, out on the world there are many chemicals that can make it deeper, can peel it from the metal so another layer forms, or can mix with it and make it less insulating. I would be surprised if loses are as low as 1% as people point on this thread, but shouldn't be very large either.
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- wombatmobile 5y agoThe aluminum market is a game. https://www.cnbc.com/2014/06/03/how-aluminum-became-a-cash-cow-for-goldman.html https://www.cnbc.com/2014/06/03/how-aluminum-became-a-cash-c...
- Invictus0 5y agoFascinating read. Apparently the antitrust case mentioned towards the end is still ongoing. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-aluminum-lawsuit-idUSKBN2AH2QU https://www.reuters.com/article/us-aluminum-lawsuit-idUSKBN2...
- jonathanwallace 5y agoAnd according to https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/40538538 https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/40538538, it always has been. In the referenced book, the author details how the aluminum cartel was dismantled under the threat of WWII needs because of their failure to promptly address the needs of the United States.
- adolph 5y agoMy recollection was that the Washington Monument has an aluminum cap on account of the material's status as a precious material at the time. What I found at the below link is a story of "fake it until you make it" pushing of materials science and self-promotion worthy of an HN read. https://www.tms.org/pubs/journals/jom/9511/binczewski-9511.html https://www.tms.org/pubs/journals/jom/9511/binczewski-9511.h...
- monocasa 5y agoYeah, until the Bayer process was discovered to pull aluminum out of bauxite in the late 1880s, it was worth more than gold. Tutankhamen had an aluminum ankh very close to his body for that reason. And even for a long time after that, before we had a critical mass of aluminum for recycling, it was still extremely expensive because of how capital and energy intensive the Bayer process is. For that fifty or so years it held a similar niche as aluminum in practical materials science.
- baybal2 5y agoThe industry around the world is running out of aluminium. Aluminium mills are closing all around the globe, except for China. Why? No magnesium. And China don't let out its magnesium.
- c_o_n_v_e_x 5y agoThere's an ongoing theme with certain non-rare industrial materials like Aluminum/Aluminium, magnesium, and not-so-rare "rare" earths elements. The materials are abundant in nature, however it's the ability or willingness to process those materials in country which is rare. For example, rare earths are dirty to process so developed countries have outsourced their pollution to China.
- raldi 5y agoWhat’s the connection between the two metals?
- nradov 5y agoChina produces most of the world magnesium supply. Production is down due to electrical power shortages and they have restricted exports in order to ensure supply for domestic needs. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-27/magnesium-shortage-in-europe-and-us-china-slows-down-supply/100570048 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-27/magnesium-shortage-in...
- bell-cot 5y agoHmm. Magnesium is anything but scarce - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnesium#Occurrence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnesium#Occurrence OTOH, it's not used in huge quantities (vs. oil, coal, iron, etc.) - so it seem plausible that China could kinda corner the market. At a reasonable cost (for them). Especially if they're the ~only country bothering to run a strategy...
- jaclaz 5y agoOnly as a side note/curiosity, possibly one of the most valued sets of cutlery Napoleon III owned was an aluminium one: https://history.stackexchange.com/questions/51115/did-napoleon-iii-reserve-a-special-set-of-aluminum-cutlery-for-special-guests https://history.stackexchange.com/questions/51115/did-napole... Anyway until the late second half of the 1800's, it was considered as valuable as gold, if not more (article in French): https://journals.openedition.org/archeosciences/560 https://journals.openedition.org/archeosciences/560
- selectodude 5y agoUntil exceptionally abundant electricity and the Hall-Heroult process, a french guy whose name I forgot discovered you could burn bauxite under a vacuum with elemental sodium. Which meant it was like a twenty step process that burned off other really expensive difficult materials to make. Wild stuff.
- FourHand451 5y agoIn the same vein, the Washington Monument is topped with an aluminum pyramid. This material was selected because at the time of construction aluminum was still considered nifty and new. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_Monument#Aluminum_apex https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_Monument#Aluminum_a...
- moffkalast 5y agoThis is the material supply equivalent of a crypto coin that has 50% of its market cap in one wallet.
- adolph 5y agothe aluminium industry consumed 6% of all global coal-fired electricity in 2019 – more coal-fired electricity than is generated in the whole of Europe – and is actually becoming more reliant on coal at a time when the world is becoming less reliant on coal. https://ember-climate.org/commentary/2020/10/06/aluminium/ https://ember-climate.org/commentary/2020/10/06/aluminium/ The aluminium sector has a pivotal role to play here. Accounting for 1.1 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions per year, it generates around 2% of global human-caused emissions. Demand for aluminium, an essential material for several key industries including construction, transportation and power transmission, is expected to grow by more than 50% by 2050. As such, emissions must be addressed now. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/11/the-aluminium-industry-s-carbon-footprint-is-higher-than-most-consumers-expect-heres-what-we-must-do-next/ https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/11/the-aluminium-industr...
- AlexanderDhoore 5y ago"at a time when the world is becoming less reliant on coal" No, we aren't becoming less reliant on coal. We should be but we aren't. Look at [1]. We actually consume more coal, oil and gas each and every year. [1] https://ourworldindata.org/energy-mix https://ourworldindata.org/energy-mix
- smallerfish 5y agoGood link, but to be fair it looks like it's leveled off since 2011. Oil & gas are continuing to grow, as are solar & wind.
- conductr 5y agoRelative numbers can be misleading and saying coal consumption has decreased is actually false. We’re not doing Mother Earth any favors by sustaining very high consumption but the average reader would believe it’s a green trend.
- smallerfish 5y ago
- munificent 5y agoWhat form is the aluminum in these stockpiles? Bars? Giant cubes? Boullion? I have no idea how unprocessed aluminum is kept around.
- zozbot234 5y agoBeer and soda cans, duh. Just dig in a random landfill and you'll find the stockpiles right there.
- imilk 5y agoVietnam does consume a large amount of 333 and Larue
- robocat 5y agoLikely to be either billets or sheet ingots. Billets: https://www.google.co.nz/search?q=%22aluminium+billets%22&tbm=isch https://www.google.co.nz/search?q=%22aluminium+billets%22&tb... An example of dimensions: “Most of the produced billets by the South Aluminum Industries Complex are produced in the form of cylinders with a diameter of 280 (11 inches) and a length of 7,500 mm” and some details of their manufacturing process here: https://en.salcocompany.com/aluminum-billet/ https://en.salcocompany.com/aluminum-billet/ Billets of various diameters are used in aluminium extrusion machines: https://www.aec.org/page/aluminum-extrusion-process-basics https://www.aec.org/page/aluminum-extrusion-process-basics Ingots are rolled to produce sheet, which I think is the majority usage by weight of Al: https://www.metalex.co.uk/expert-aluminium-plate-suppliers-explain-the-production-process/ https://www.metalex.co.uk/expert-aluminium-plate-suppliers-e... “The rolling process kicks off with massive, pre-heated metal sheet ingots weighing as much as 20 tons. The ingots tend to be around six feet wide, twenty feet long and over two feet thick.”
- slownews45 5y agoIf people are upset by so called "dumping" - can't they just let China charge more than they would have for this aluminum? Aluminum has well known fixed costs in smelters, it's one of those products they use as an example where it may make economic sense to keep a smelter going (even if incurring losses / ) because the cost of shutdown. Ie, a potline may take up to a week just to "turn off" and a huge amount of effort - think a month of full time work + weeks of troubleshooting as annode effect issues, alumina concentration and other bits settle down. Don't you basically have to recondition (fully, replace all anodes, dig out the crust) the pots, and even then you may be taking a bit hit on pot life with the cool down / reheat cycle? I know the US has "anti dumping" rules regarding sugar as well - which I've been told contributes to a fair bit of corn syrup use. I'm not that hung-up on the US blocking imports of cheap materials (if that's what the US wants to do), but how does the US get some third party country to grab this quantity of metal? Ie, China could sell to other countries that are not as concerned about dumping. For example, why would a poor country without a local smelter even care about "dumping" - it would seem the cheap prices would be a subsidy in effect.
- itronitron 5y agoNow I wonder how this is related... https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3784270/Chinese-billionaire-hid-2-billion-aluminum-stockpile-Mexican-desert-claim-American-rivals.html https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3784270/Chinese-bil... https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/a-chinese-billionaire-is-likely-behind-a-huge-aluminum-stockpile-in-the-mexican-desert https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/a-chinese-billionaire-...
- slownews45 5y agoSeems very possible that there was a similar approach here in Vietnam where a goal might have been to get the stuff to the US. I'm a bit confused by the seizure. Ie, if US doesn't want the cheap aluminum -> let another country have it cheap? That said, Biden does seem to be going big on tariffs. "The decision is one of Mr. Biden’s first significant moves on trade and suggests that his administration may be inclined to maintain the type of hefty tariffs Mr. Trump imposed on foreign metals to protect domestic industry. That position found favor with unions, but disappointed industries and businesses that have argued the tariffs raise costs." - NY Times - Biden Reinstates Aluminum Tariffs in One of His First Trade Moves So this story does seem to be continuing with efforts by Biden to keep imported prices higher and there may be an element of politics in some of this all.
- shmerl 5y agoIs aluminum running out? Why is there a deficit? The article doesn't explain that.
- mleonhard 5y agoThe article even has a graph that shows that stockpiles are very high. The doom seems to come entirely from projections due to China reducing production. The article doesn't explain why other countries cannot step up production to meet demand. The article's quality is poor. It wasn't worth my time to read.