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Europe’s aggressive new emissions rules put gas engines on notice

39 points by hochmartinez 5y ago

clouddrover 5y ago
Well, they were already on notice really. The UK will ban new car ICE sales 5 years earlier than the EU: https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-54981425 https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-54981425 Volkswagen is the leader in EV sales in Europe at the moment. They are about to overtake Renault in cumulative EV sales too: https://eu-evs.com/bestSellersCharts/ALL/Groups/Line-Cumulative/All-time-by-Quarters https://eu-evs.com/bestSellersCharts/ALL/Groups/Line-Cumulat...
- danuker 5y ago
  What is going on here? https://eu-evs.com/marketShare/ALL/Brands/Bar/All-time-by-Quarters https://eu-evs.com/marketShare/ALL/Brands/Bar/All-time-by-Qu... Is the market getting tons of new competitors, which is why the status quo is losing market share?
  - sharpneli 5y ago
    https://eu-evs.com/marketShare/ALL/Groups/Bar/All-time-by-Quarters https://eu-evs.com/marketShare/ALL/Groups/Bar/All-time-by-Qu... If you look by groups the effect is less. As an example Skoda Enyaq is from Volkswagen AG but it’s naturally not a Volkswagen branded product. But yeah everyone and their dog is releasing EV’s now.
  - clouddrover 5y ago
    That's an individual brand view and it's showing percentages. Automakers are releasing more models across more brands these days. Volkswagen, for example, owns 12 automotive brands and most of them have EV models out now: https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/brands-and-models.html https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/brands-and-models.html So far in 2021 Volkswagen has about 27.8% of the EV market in Europe: https://eu-evs.com/bestSellers/ALL_MONTHLY/Groups/Year/2021 https://eu-evs.com/bestSellers/ALL_MONTHLY/Groups/Year/2021 In Q2 only they had 30.1%: https://eu-evs.com/bestSellers/ALL_MONTHLY/Groups/Quarter/2021/2 https://eu-evs.com/bestSellers/ALL_MONTHLY/Groups/Quarter/20...
  - zip1234 5y ago
    Not sure why, but that chart doesn't include Ford, which just released the Mach E, which happens to be selling very well right now in Europe.
    - clouddrover 5y ago
      The chart shows the top 8 brands only.
jokoon 5y ago
I'm quite curious to see how EU countries will abide to those rules, it is going to be messy and I wonder if there will be fines, I guess there won't... I guess europe can expect a whole lot of yellow vest-style protests. I keep reading that the yellow vest were arguing that the carbon tax was hitting the poor more, but in the end, carbon benefits everyone, not just the rich. It's true that the rich emits more, it's true that the rich can adapt more easily, but in the end, the rich will also lose income because of a carbon tax. I'm not sure that "carbon inequality" is very high (even though air travel seems to really increase that carbon inequality). I also really believe that fossil fuels allowed the poor to get out of poverty. It's necessary to cut down CO2 emissions, but it's also necessary to anticipate the social cost, because it is going to be huge and put a lot of people out of a job.
- perfunctory 5y ago
  I generally agree. But if we don't cut co2 emissions the social cost will be even higher.
- mytailorisrich 5y ago
  One of the issues with the carbon tax as was proposed in France is that it did not offer an alternative. Many people rely on cars and, especially, utility vehicles for their livelihood and mobility. Slapping an extra tax on them without a viable alternative does not reduce emissions, it only makes people poorer. That's part of the reasons the public backlash was intense. I think that should be one of the lessons learned for the transition to EV to happen smoothly.
  - bjourne 5y ago
    That's what they said with congestion taxes too. "People need to drive in the city. It will hit the poorest the most!" But in almost every city where it has been implemented it has reduced congestion. Same with taxes on tobacco which has reduced smoking in many countries. It's essentially the only thing economists agree on - higher taxes reduces consumption. Of course, fuel is so cheap that you need to raise taxes significantly for them to have any effect. After all, fuel is just a small fraction of the total cost of owning a car.
ashtonkem 5y ago
I expect gasoline engines to stop being popular in the next 4-5 years. EVs are getting cheaper and cheaper, and they’re much simpler to own and maintain. The next gas shock will probably tip more people over to ditching gasoline too.
- aivisol 5y ago
  > much simpler to own and maintain. As a person who never owned an EV I am curious to know how it is simpler to maintain it?
  - 1337turtle 5y ago
    Rotate tires and refill the washer fluid. Done! I've had a Nissan Leaf since 2014, and that's all I have ever done.
    - clouddrover 5y ago
      And eventually replace the battery which is expensive and wipes out all the previous savings. EV batteries still need to become more durable and more repairable. And sometimes EV manufacturers don't try very hard to do right by their customers: https://www.thedrive.com/news/41493/teslas-16000-quote-for-a-700-fix-is-why-right-to-repair-matters https://www.thedrive.com/news/41493/teslas-16000-quote-for-a...
      - speedgoose 5y ago
        You usually don't replace the battery of an EV. It's like replacing the engine of an ICE car, it can be done but it's usually not worth it. An old leaf with a bad battery should simply be sold for cheap to someone who needs less range.
        driverdan 5y ago
        > It's like replacing the engine of an ICE car I downvoted you because that's not true. It's far easier to replace batteries than an engine. It requires minimal skill. If they start building them into the body that may change though.
speedgoose 5y ago
The article is illustrated with a photo of a CCS combo type 1 socket, which are not common in Europe but north America.
adrianN 5y ago
I wouldn't really call the new rules "aggressive". They are long overdue, thanks to very successful lobbying and blockades by Germany. The targets are also incompatible with the Paris agreements.
- libertine 5y ago
  They are very aggressive especially for some countries in at the end of the tail in Europe where people struggle financially and this will just put more strain on them. All the benefits we've seen so far for EVs are aimed at the people with a lot of available income, and with financial mechanisms to avoid paying taxes/tax benefits/deductions, like something as simple as owning a company and buy the EV through there - why are Teslas considered business expenses in Portugal? So again, who is this targeted at? Don't take me wrong - this is long overdue, but so it is bringing people up to allow them to comply with these reforms. Else this is just another tax to strip people of more of their income. Not only the housing market is being pressured by people with more available income with all the "new-normal" and remote trend, now we will get even more pressure from yet another tax. EU must start to realize they are walking a fine line, a lot of people are starting to be tired of being the "low cost resort/factory" of Europe.
  - edhelas 5y ago
    People in a global warming thread: - We're not doing enough, governments should tackle this very seriously People when government are actually taking measures: - Wow those are aggressive measures
    - libertine 5y ago
      No, it's about being detached from the reality, that's all. And people wonder why extremists are gaining popularity, it's like they are joking with people's livelihoods. In case you didn't notice, it's going to be those who can't afford EVs that will pay these taxes. If people are already struggling to find where they will live, why would they prioritize how they get around? It's absurd. Let's tax electricity because people don't have brand new houses with proper isolation, that'll show them to not live in crappy houses. How dare they, right?
CrimpCity 5y ago
Several car manufacturers, Volkswagen being the biggest, have publicly stated goals of aggressively growing their electric fleets or going carbon free by 2030-2035. https://apnews.com/article/volvo-electric-vehicles-only-2030-5ecff5dbf0e3fa01f822a015a5625b9f?fbclid=IwAR0_Z5L4laGVbBw8LTYr3pPanWja8cAwajzI6s1-VvJcjUQUSraouQmNf2c https://apnews.com/article/volvo-electric-vehicles-only-2030... I was surprised I didn't hear about this sooner since this seems like a big deal. Pretty good write up on many more manufacturers goals. https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g35562831/ev-plans-automakers-timeline/ https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g35562831/ev-plans-automak...
- edhelas 5y ago
  Those cars will actually be carbon free in Europe in the following countries: France, Sweden, Finland and Island. For most of the others it's actually a lie. Your car is "carbon free" if the electricity you put in is carbon, or close to carbon free. That's it.
  - derriz 5y ago
    38% of Europe's electricity was generated by renewables in 2020 - not including nuclear. This proportion is growing rapidly. It's a win already particularly given the relatively poor efficiency of internal combustion engines. And it will only get better as a virtuous cycle between the growth of renewables in generation and the growth of BEV ownership. Off-peak EV charging provides a valuable sink for cheap off-peak renewably generated electricity.
- imtringued 5y ago
  Because Tesla investors need to be lied to that they have a unique edge over the incumbent manufacturers. For incumbent manufacturers it is an all or nothing proposition. They have to abandon their ICE lineup. It looks like they are standing still because of that but the rate of change can actually be much faster than at Tesla because once they abandon their ICE lineups there is nothing but EVs left to manufacture and they will manufacture them at exactly the same rate they manufactured ICE vehicles.
nabla9 5y ago
More importantly EU is finally, gradually, fixing the problems in Emissions Trading System (ETS is cap-and-trade where they set up a annual cap for emissions and then it's possible to trade with emissions) They have been giving the largest chunk of emission allowances (EUAs) free for big polluters. In principle that's OK because there is still incentive to reduce emissions and get money from selling EAUs. Unfortunately if you pollute less they reduce those EUAs and that takes incentives away. That will be eventually fixed. There will also be carbon tariffs from imported products to take out incentive to move emissions elsewhere and level the playing field.
- raxxorrax 5y ago
  I think sensible policy crafting would have required to reorder these approaches.
- imtringued 5y ago
  Actually, giving out certificates for free is bad because it means that planning for a specific certificate price is impossible because the free handouts constantly mess with the prices. A carbon tax has the advantage that you can plan ahead because the government releases a schedule for future CO2 tax increases.
  - nabla9 5y ago
    No. Free certificates don't mess with the price when there is a predefined cap (as in cap in cap-and-trade). Trade afterwards is the price discovery mechanism. What messed the system was the reason I mentioned.
dgellow 5y ago
For people who own a gasoline car, what are they supposed to do with it? Lot of them are still in good conditions but will be useless and worthless. If you cannot use it, cannot sell it, what are you supposed to do? Should they just throw them away, then buy a new car? Or drive it to a foreign country outside of the EU?
- pjerem 5y ago
  Why would they be useless ? You can use them until they die.
  - drclau 5y ago
    The mandatory vehicle inspections [0] will likely cut them down before they die a "natural death". Links: [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vehicle_inspection https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vehicle_inspection
- thinkcontext 5y ago
  The rule applies to new cars, fuel will still be sold after 2035. Of course, at some point gas stations will begin to close and the price will begin to rise, so there will be more incentive to buy a new car. Weigh that against the fact that EV fuel is much cheaper per mile than gas, EVs require less maintenance and that by 2035 will be cheaper upfront than a similar ICE car.
  - gitanovic 5y ago
    Sorry, but I don't understand why fuel price should rise if the demand takes a dip
    - thinkcontext 5y ago
      The EU carbon price will continue to go up. Fuel will get hit with it when crude oil crosses the border and during refining. You do raise a good point about the size of that effect vs that of lessening demand.
bjourne 5y ago
> By 2050, the EU says, “nearly all cars and vans on the roads will need to be zero-emission vehicles.” Stricter CO2 emissions standards that came into force at the start of 2020 will be made even tougher. Newly registered cars must reduce emissions by 55-percent, compared to 2021, by 2030, and then by 100-percent by 2035. For new vans, those targets are 50-percent by 20230, and 100-percent by 2035. Way too little and way too late. :/ In almost every opinion poll in almost every country, the public is overwhelmingly in favor of climate change mitigation measures. It's sad that this is the best our politicians can do.
- krzyk 5y ago
  > In almost every opinion poll in almost every country, the public is overwhelmingly in favor of climate change mitigation measures Do you have sources? In my experience is more like fifty-fifty, some prefer faster cars and don't care about emission, others prefer cheaper cars (e.g. used ones, which don't pass newer strict guidlines). In my country most people buy used cars, because they are cheaper and one can afford it. Same with energy production, would you prefer to pay higher or lower bills?
  - bjourne 5y ago
    "Even though the survey was conducted during the COVID-19 crisis, there was still widespread recognition of climate change as a global emergency in every country surveyed. Over all 50 countries, 64% of people said that climate change was an emergency – presenting a clear and convincing call for decision-makers to step up on ambition." https://www.undp.org/press-releases/worlds-largest-survey-public-opinion-climate-change-majority-people-call-wide https://www.undp.org/press-releases/worlds-largest-survey-pu... "Two-Thirds of Americans Think Government Should Do More on Climate" https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/06/23/two-thirds-of-americans-think-government-should-do-more-on-climate/ https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/06/23/two-thirds-of... "In 2021, the AEE's representative annual survey was conducted by online pollster YouGov, which approached 1,051 people aged 16 and over. The AEE added up the categories “extremely important,” “very important” and “important” to arrive at the conclusion that “almost nine out of ten citizens (86%) support the increased use of renewable energy in Germany.” It also found broad support for renewable energy installations in interviewees’ direct neighbourhoods (60% good/very good), which increased further if respondents already had experience with such installations." https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/polls-reveal-citizens-support-energiewende https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/polls-reveal-citi... "European citizens now identify climate change as the single most serious problem facing the world." "93% of EU citizens see climate change as a serious problem and 78% see it as a very serious problem. 90% of respondents – and at least three quarters in each Member State – agree that greenhouse gas emissions should be reduced to a minimum while offsetting the remaining emissions, in order to make the EU economy climate-neutral by 2050." "87% think the EU should set ambitious targets to increase renewable energy and support energy efficiency." https://ec.europa.eu/clima/citizens/support_en https://ec.europa.eu/clima/citizens/support_en "In France, seven-in-ten think protecting the environment should be given priority, even if it causes slower economic growth and some loss of jobs." "A 20-public median of 58% say their national government is doing too little to reduce the effects of climate change. A majority in France (63%) say their government is doing too little to reduce the effects of climate change, while 26% say the government is doing about the right amount, and just 7% say it is doing too much." https://www.pewresearch.org/science/fact-sheet/public-views-about-science-in-france/ https://www.pewresearch.org/science/fact-sheet/public-views-... "International concern about climate change has increased over the past several years, with growing shares viewing climate change as a major threat. In addition, large majorities in the current survey express worry over climate change and describe it as a serious problem." "A median of seven-in-ten across the set of 20 publics say climate change is having at least some effect on their local community. And in some places – Italy, Spain and Brazil – about half or more see a great deal of impact from climate change in their community. Government action on climate change is widely seen as lacking: Majorities across most of surveyed publics believe their government is doing too little to address climate change (20-public median of 58%)." "When asked to choose, a median of 71% said environmental protection should be the greater priority even if it caused slower economic growth and loss of jobs; a much smaller median of 25% said creating jobs should be the priority (the survey was conducted before the coronavirus pandemic and resultant economic strains took hold in many of these publics)." https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/09/29/science-and-scientists-held-in-high-esteem-across-global-publics/ https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/09/29/science-and-s... "More than two thirds (67 per cent) of the British public want to see the UK as world leader on climate change, according to a YouGov poll commissioned by Global Witness, with this view consistent across all sectors of the population." https://www.globalwitness.org/en/press-releases/yougov-poll-finds-majority-british-public-want-uk-lead-world-tackling-climate-change/ https://www.globalwitness.org/en/press-releases/yougov-poll-... In my experience, climate change deniers often get a lot of attention and it therefore seems like they are more plentiful than they are. For example, in my country some people started a Facebook group about how gas prices were too high and should be lowered and they got a lot of attention. In response, people started an opposing Facebook group about how gas prices were too low and should be raised. That group quickly got as many members as the first, but almost no media attention.
krzyk 5y ago
For those more knowledgeable. Are emission limits calculated similarly for all countries. Is it: calculate current emission, set allowance for next year as prev_year_emission * 0.99 (or some other reduction)? This equation would need modifications for richer and poorer countries (which can't modernize so easily) Is that similar to how those limits are set? Or all all countries set to some arbitrary limits - that would explain those emission purchases.

39 points by hochmartinez 5y ago

Well, they were already on notice really. The UK will ban new car ICE sales 5 years earlier than the EU: https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-54981425 https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-54981425 Volkswagen is the leader in EV sales in Europe at the moment. They are about to overtake Renault in cumulative EV sales too: https://eu-evs.com/bestSellersCharts/ALL/Groups/Line-Cumulative/All-time-by-Quarters https://eu-evs.com/bestSellersCharts/ALL/Groups/Line-Cumulat...

danuker 5y ago
What is going on here? https://eu-evs.com/marketShare/ALL/Brands/Bar/All-time-by-Quarters https://eu-evs.com/marketShare/ALL/Brands/Bar/All-time-by-Qu... Is the market getting tons of new competitors, which is why the status quo is losing market share?
- sharpneli 5y ago
  https://eu-evs.com/marketShare/ALL/Groups/Bar/All-time-by-Quarters https://eu-evs.com/marketShare/ALL/Groups/Bar/All-time-by-Qu... If you look by groups the effect is less. As an example Skoda Enyaq is from Volkswagen AG but it’s naturally not a Volkswagen branded product. But yeah everyone and their dog is releasing EV’s now.
- clouddrover 5y ago
  That's an individual brand view and it's showing percentages. Automakers are releasing more models across more brands these days. Volkswagen, for example, owns 12 automotive brands and most of them have EV models out now: https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/brands-and-models.html https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/brands-and-models.html So far in 2021 Volkswagen has about 27.8% of the EV market in Europe: https://eu-evs.com/bestSellers/ALL_MONTHLY/Groups/Year/2021 https://eu-evs.com/bestSellers/ALL_MONTHLY/Groups/Year/2021 In Q2 only they had 30.1%: https://eu-evs.com/bestSellers/ALL_MONTHLY/Groups/Quarter/2021/2 https://eu-evs.com/bestSellers/ALL_MONTHLY/Groups/Quarter/20...
- zip1234 5y ago
  Not sure why, but that chart doesn't include Ford, which just released the Mach E, which happens to be selling very well right now in Europe.
  - clouddrover 5y ago
    The chart shows the top 8 brands only.

jokoon 5y ago

I'm quite curious to see how EU countries will abide to those rules, it is going to be messy and I wonder if there will be fines, I guess there won't... I guess europe can expect a whole lot of yellow vest-style protests. I keep reading that the yellow vest were arguing that the carbon tax was hitting the poor more, but in the end, carbon benefits everyone, not just the rich. It's true that the rich emits more, it's true that the rich can adapt more easily, but in the end, the rich will also lose income because of a carbon tax. I'm not sure that "carbon inequality" is very high (even though air travel seems to really increase that carbon inequality). I also really believe that fossil fuels allowed the poor to get out of poverty. It's necessary to cut down CO2 emissions, but it's also necessary to anticipate the social cost, because it is going to be huge and put a lot of people out of a job.

perfunctory 5y ago
I generally agree. But if we don't cut co2 emissions the social cost will be even higher.
mytailorisrich 5y ago
One of the issues with the carbon tax as was proposed in France is that it did not offer an alternative. Many people rely on cars and, especially, utility vehicles for their livelihood and mobility. Slapping an extra tax on them without a viable alternative does not reduce emissions, it only makes people poorer. That's part of the reasons the public backlash was intense. I think that should be one of the lessons learned for the transition to EV to happen smoothly.
- bjourne 5y ago
  That's what they said with congestion taxes too. "People need to drive in the city. It will hit the poorest the most!" But in almost every city where it has been implemented it has reduced congestion. Same with taxes on tobacco which has reduced smoking in many countries. It's essentially the only thing economists agree on - higher taxes reduces consumption. Of course, fuel is so cheap that you need to raise taxes significantly for them to have any effect. After all, fuel is just a small fraction of the total cost of owning a car.

ashtonkem 5y ago

I expect gasoline engines to stop being popular in the next 4-5 years. EVs are getting cheaper and cheaper, and they’re much simpler to own and maintain. The next gas shock will probably tip more people over to ditching gasoline too.

aivisol 5y ago
> much simpler to own and maintain. As a person who never owned an EV I am curious to know how it is simpler to maintain it?
- 1337turtle 5y ago
  Rotate tires and refill the washer fluid. Done! I've had a Nissan Leaf since 2014, and that's all I have ever done.
  - clouddrover 5y ago
    And eventually replace the battery which is expensive and wipes out all the previous savings. EV batteries still need to become more durable and more repairable. And sometimes EV manufacturers don't try very hard to do right by their customers: https://www.thedrive.com/news/41493/teslas-16000-quote-for-a-700-fix-is-why-right-to-repair-matters https://www.thedrive.com/news/41493/teslas-16000-quote-for-a...
    - speedgoose 5y ago
      You usually don't replace the battery of an EV. It's like replacing the engine of an ICE car, it can be done but it's usually not worth it. An old leaf with a bad battery should simply be sold for cheap to someone who needs less range.
      - driverdan 5y ago
        > It's like replacing the engine of an ICE car I downvoted you because that's not true. It's far easier to replace batteries than an engine. It requires minimal skill. If they start building them into the body that may change though.

speedgoose 5y ago

The article is illustrated with a photo of a CCS combo type 1 socket, which are not common in Europe but north America.

adrianN 5y ago

I wouldn't really call the new rules "aggressive". They are long overdue, thanks to very successful lobbying and blockades by Germany. The targets are also incompatible with the Paris agreements.

libertine 5y ago
They are very aggressive especially for some countries in at the end of the tail in Europe where people struggle financially and this will just put more strain on them. All the benefits we've seen so far for EVs are aimed at the people with a lot of available income, and with financial mechanisms to avoid paying taxes/tax benefits/deductions, like something as simple as owning a company and buy the EV through there - why are Teslas considered business expenses in Portugal? So again, who is this targeted at? Don't take me wrong - this is long overdue, but so it is bringing people up to allow them to comply with these reforms. Else this is just another tax to strip people of more of their income. Not only the housing market is being pressured by people with more available income with all the "new-normal" and remote trend, now we will get even more pressure from yet another tax. EU must start to realize they are walking a fine line, a lot of people are starting to be tired of being the "low cost resort/factory" of Europe.
- edhelas 5y ago
  People in a global warming thread: - We're not doing enough, governments should tackle this very seriously People when government are actually taking measures: - Wow those are aggressive measures
  - libertine 5y ago
    No, it's about being detached from the reality, that's all. And people wonder why extremists are gaining popularity, it's like they are joking with people's livelihoods. In case you didn't notice, it's going to be those who can't afford EVs that will pay these taxes. If people are already struggling to find where they will live, why would they prioritize how they get around? It's absurd. Let's tax electricity because people don't have brand new houses with proper isolation, that'll show them to not live in crappy houses. How dare they, right?

CrimpCity 5y ago

Several car manufacturers, Volkswagen being the biggest, have publicly stated goals of aggressively growing their electric fleets or going carbon free by 2030-2035. https://apnews.com/article/volvo-electric-vehicles-only-2030-5ecff5dbf0e3fa01f822a015a5625b9f?fbclid=IwAR0_Z5L4laGVbBw8LTYr3pPanWja8cAwajzI6s1-VvJcjUQUSraouQmNf2c https://apnews.com/article/volvo-electric-vehicles-only-2030... I was surprised I didn't hear about this sooner since this seems like a big deal. Pretty good write up on many more manufacturers goals. https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g35562831/ev-plans-automakers-timeline/ https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g35562831/ev-plans-automak...

edhelas 5y ago
Those cars will actually be carbon free in Europe in the following countries: France, Sweden, Finland and Island. For most of the others it's actually a lie. Your car is "carbon free" if the electricity you put in is carbon, or close to carbon free. That's it.
- derriz 5y ago
  38% of Europe's electricity was generated by renewables in 2020 - not including nuclear. This proportion is growing rapidly. It's a win already particularly given the relatively poor efficiency of internal combustion engines. And it will only get better as a virtuous cycle between the growth of renewables in generation and the growth of BEV ownership. Off-peak EV charging provides a valuable sink for cheap off-peak renewably generated electricity.
imtringued 5y ago
Because Tesla investors need to be lied to that they have a unique edge over the incumbent manufacturers. For incumbent manufacturers it is an all or nothing proposition. They have to abandon their ICE lineup. It looks like they are standing still because of that but the rate of change can actually be much faster than at Tesla because once they abandon their ICE lineups there is nothing but EVs left to manufacture and they will manufacture them at exactly the same rate they manufactured ICE vehicles.

nabla9 5y ago

More importantly EU is finally, gradually, fixing the problems in Emissions Trading System (ETS is cap-and-trade where they set up a annual cap for emissions and then it's possible to trade with emissions) They have been giving the largest chunk of emission allowances (EUAs) free for big polluters. In principle that's OK because there is still incentive to reduce emissions and get money from selling EAUs. Unfortunately if you pollute less they reduce those EUAs and that takes incentives away. That will be eventually fixed. There will also be carbon tariffs from imported products to take out incentive to move emissions elsewhere and level the playing field.

raxxorrax 5y ago
I think sensible policy crafting would have required to reorder these approaches.
imtringued 5y ago
Actually, giving out certificates for free is bad because it means that planning for a specific certificate price is impossible because the free handouts constantly mess with the prices. A carbon tax has the advantage that you can plan ahead because the government releases a schedule for future CO2 tax increases.
- nabla9 5y ago
  No. Free certificates don't mess with the price when there is a predefined cap (as in cap in cap-and-trade). Trade afterwards is the price discovery mechanism. What messed the system was the reason I mentioned.

dgellow 5y ago

For people who own a gasoline car, what are they supposed to do with it? Lot of them are still in good conditions but will be useless and worthless. If you cannot use it, cannot sell it, what are you supposed to do? Should they just throw them away, then buy a new car? Or drive it to a foreign country outside of the EU?

pjerem 5y ago
Why would they be useless ? You can use them until they die.
- drclau 5y ago
  The mandatory vehicle inspections [0] will likely cut them down before they die a "natural death". Links: [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vehicle_inspection https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vehicle_inspection
thinkcontext 5y ago
The rule applies to new cars, fuel will still be sold after 2035. Of course, at some point gas stations will begin to close and the price will begin to rise, so there will be more incentive to buy a new car. Weigh that against the fact that EV fuel is much cheaper per mile than gas, EVs require less maintenance and that by 2035 will be cheaper upfront than a similar ICE car.
- gitanovic 5y ago
  Sorry, but I don't understand why fuel price should rise if the demand takes a dip
  - thinkcontext 5y ago
    The EU carbon price will continue to go up. Fuel will get hit with it when crude oil crosses the border and during refining. You do raise a good point about the size of that effect vs that of lessening demand.

bjourne 5y ago

> By 2050, the EU says, “nearly all cars and vans on the roads will need to be zero-emission vehicles.” Stricter CO2 emissions standards that came into force at the start of 2020 will be made even tougher. Newly registered cars must reduce emissions by 55-percent, compared to 2021, by 2030, and then by 100-percent by 2035. For new vans, those targets are 50-percent by 20230, and 100-percent by 2035. Way too little and way too late. :/ In almost every opinion poll in almost every country, the public is overwhelmingly in favor of climate change mitigation measures. It's sad that this is the best our politicians can do.

krzyk 5y ago
> In almost every opinion poll in almost every country, the public is overwhelmingly in favor of climate change mitigation measures Do you have sources? In my experience is more like fifty-fifty, some prefer faster cars and don't care about emission, others prefer cheaper cars (e.g. used ones, which don't pass newer strict guidlines). In my country most people buy used cars, because they are cheaper and one can afford it. Same with energy production, would you prefer to pay higher or lower bills?
- bjourne 5y ago
  "Even though the survey was conducted during the COVID-19 crisis, there was still widespread recognition of climate change as a global emergency in every country surveyed. Over all 50 countries, 64% of people said that climate change was an emergency – presenting a clear and convincing call for decision-makers to step up on ambition." https://www.undp.org/press-releases/worlds-largest-survey-public-opinion-climate-change-majority-people-call-wide https://www.undp.org/press-releases/worlds-largest-survey-pu... "Two-Thirds of Americans Think Government Should Do More on Climate" https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/06/23/two-thirds-of-americans-think-government-should-do-more-on-climate/ https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/06/23/two-thirds-of... "In 2021, the AEE's representative annual survey was conducted by online pollster YouGov, which approached 1,051 people aged 16 and over. The AEE added up the categories “extremely important,” “very important” and “important” to arrive at the conclusion that “almost nine out of ten citizens (86%) support the increased use of renewable energy in Germany.” It also found broad support for renewable energy installations in interviewees’ direct neighbourhoods (60% good/very good), which increased further if respondents already had experience with such installations." https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/polls-reveal-citizens-support-energiewende https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/polls-reveal-citi... "European citizens now identify climate change as the single most serious problem facing the world." "93% of EU citizens see climate change as a serious problem and 78% see it as a very serious problem. 90% of respondents – and at least three quarters in each Member State – agree that greenhouse gas emissions should be reduced to a minimum while offsetting the remaining emissions, in order to make the EU economy climate-neutral by 2050." "87% think the EU should set ambitious targets to increase renewable energy and support energy efficiency." https://ec.europa.eu/clima/citizens/support_en https://ec.europa.eu/clima/citizens/support_en "In France, seven-in-ten think protecting the environment should be given priority, even if it causes slower economic growth and some loss of jobs." "A 20-public median of 58% say their national government is doing too little to reduce the effects of climate change. A majority in France (63%) say their government is doing too little to reduce the effects of climate change, while 26% say the government is doing about the right amount, and just 7% say it is doing too much." https://www.pewresearch.org/science/fact-sheet/public-views-about-science-in-france/ https://www.pewresearch.org/science/fact-sheet/public-views-... "International concern about climate change has increased over the past several years, with growing shares viewing climate change as a major threat. In addition, large majorities in the current survey express worry over climate change and describe it as a serious problem." "A median of seven-in-ten across the set of 20 publics say climate change is having at least some effect on their local community. And in some places – Italy, Spain and Brazil – about half or more see a great deal of impact from climate change in their community. Government action on climate change is widely seen as lacking: Majorities across most of surveyed publics believe their government is doing too little to address climate change (20-public median of 58%)." "When asked to choose, a median of 71% said environmental protection should be the greater priority even if it caused slower economic growth and loss of jobs; a much smaller median of 25% said creating jobs should be the priority (the survey was conducted before the coronavirus pandemic and resultant economic strains took hold in many of these publics)." https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/09/29/science-and-scientists-held-in-high-esteem-across-global-publics/ https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/09/29/science-and-s... "More than two thirds (67 per cent) of the British public want to see the UK as world leader on climate change, according to a YouGov poll commissioned by Global Witness, with this view consistent across all sectors of the population." https://www.globalwitness.org/en/press-releases/yougov-poll-finds-majority-british-public-want-uk-lead-world-tackling-climate-change/ https://www.globalwitness.org/en/press-releases/yougov-poll-... In my experience, climate change deniers often get a lot of attention and it therefore seems like they are more plentiful than they are. For example, in my country some people started a Facebook group about how gas prices were too high and should be lowered and they got a lot of attention. In response, people started an opposing Facebook group about how gas prices were too low and should be raised. That group quickly got as many members as the first, but almost no media attention.

krzyk 5y ago

For those more knowledgeable. Are emission limits calculated similarly for all countries. Is it: calculate current emission, set allowance for next year as prev_year_emission * 0.99 (or some other reduction)? This equation would need modifications for richer and poorer countries (which can't modernize so easily) Is that similar to how those limits are set? Or all all countries set to some arbitrary limits - that would explain those emission purchases.