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The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

477 points by infodocket 5y ago

graton 5y ago
I don't think this applies to Duracell or Energizer alkaline batteries unfortunately :( Of course reading the article they are talking about Lithium Ion batteries.
- blibble 5y ago
  you're paying for the brand, shelf position and other advertising cheap and reputable supermarket brand ones last just long
  - Dylan16807 5y ago
    Looking at a couple stores, the difference is around 50 cents per AA vs. 70 cents per AA at moderate pack sizes. That's good in comparison but it's about the same price it was a decade ago. Even comparing to 1990, when "alkaline" wasn't yet the default, they were about the same price. "Alkaline: These cost about $2 to $3 a pair for C or D flashlight cells, and about half that for the AA and smaller AAA penlight batteries." At best you can say they've dropped along with inflation, which is a factor of 2.
  - fspeech 5y ago
    GP meant price for alkaline batteries did not come down. Another point to consider is if you leave the alkaline battery in for too long will the chemical leak and ruin your device? The damage to your device from a broken battery could easily exceed the cost differential. I don't have solid evidence that brand names work better in this regard but I have definitely experienced repeatedly generic batteries having white corrosive crystaline stuff formed all around them.
    - lostapathy 5y ago
      People should quit buying alkaline batteries anyway. NiMH batteries are great for just about every application you'd use a throway for, and you only have to recharge them about twice to "get your money back."
      - Answerawake 5y ago
        The starting voltage is lower and drops faster making them not ideal for some applications and just annoying for some others (ie. motors start slow and get slower quicker than Alkaline). Charge speeds also suck unless you get some of the fancy expensive chargers.
        lostapathy 5y ago
        Yeah, there are some things they aren't great on but for most things they are fine. > Charge speeds also suck unless you get some of the fancy expensive chargers. This has been a total non-issue to me. I have 30 or 40 batteries running around total, keeping 4 spares on the charger is no big deal
  - adventured 5y ago
    No question. Same thing you see in the generic pain relief aisle (ibuprofen, acetaminophen, et al), and many common grocery items. 10 pack of AA Rayovac batteries at Walmart: $3.20 Eight pack of AA Duracell: $7.47 Pretty ridiculous. For $7.78 you can get a 24 pack of ACDelco AA batteries (granted I don't know how that brand stands up on quality).
  - jl6 5y ago
    How do you tell the difference between a battery brand that is more expensive because the battery has greater capacity (“heavy duty”, “extra long life”, etc.) and a brand that is more expensive because of the brand name? Last time I looked in the supermarket there were no comparable metrics printed on the packaging.
    - buescher 5y ago
      You can't, and you don't know who is private labeling what, either. If you can get a data sheet, the better companies have more detailed data sheets. Personally, I like the Energizer (primary, i.e. disposable) lithiums for nice things like my old HP logic dart that will sit in a drawer for a long time between uses, and Panasonic (formerly Sanyo) Eneloop NiMH batteries for most other things, and the cheapo Costco batteries for when I really don't care. The three major US brands of alkaline batteries all have warranties for corrosion damage. I don't know of any other brands that do. I have seen corrosion in every brand of alkaline battery I've ever bought but have never tried to collect on any warranty. “Energizer will repair or replace, at our option, any device damaged by leakage from Energizer MAX® Alkaline batteries either during the life of the battery or within two years following the full use of the battery.” https://www.energizer.com/about-batteries/battery-leakage https://www.energizer.com/about-batteries/battery-leakage “Duracell guarantees its batteries against defects in materials and workmanship. Should any device be damaged due to a battery defect, we will repair or replace it at our option.” https://www.duracell.com/en-ca/technology/battery-care-use-and-disposal/ https://www.duracell.com/en-ca/technology/battery-care-use-a... "In the unlikely event of alkaline battery leakage, any battery operated device that is damaged by RAYOVAC® Alkaline Batteries will be repaired, replaced or refunded, at our option, as long as the batteries have not expired or been mixed by expiry date and/or battery type.” http://www.rayovac.com/support/warranties-and-guarantees.aspx http://www.rayovac.com/support/warranties-and-guarantees.asp...
      - Answerawake 5y ago
        I have a unproven suspicion that Rechargeable Energizer may actually be Panasonic cells. I tend to see them both marked as made in Japan and they both seem to be great quality.
  - Answerawake 5y ago
    >cheap and reputable supermarket brand ones last just long Absolutely not. There are plenty of Youtubers testing this theory. Here is a pretty credible reviewer https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V7-ghrTqA44 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V7-ghrTqA44 I personally have had nightmarish results with Amazon Basics Alkaline. In my experience these batteries have a greater tendency than other brands to leak over time and have destroyed multiple electronic equipment that I have owned. It was a big mistake on my part because I bought a large package of them, installed them and then didn't realize that many of them leaked until it was too late and they have eaten away many terminals in the different devices I put them in.
    - blibble 5y ago
      > I personally have had nightmarish results with Amazon Basics Alkaline. I did say reputable! re: the video, he should really test more than a single pack of batteries of each type...
- tamaharbor 5y ago
  I used to get free batteries (size of my choice, I always chose the more expensive rectangular 9v ones) as an official member of the Radio Shack Battery of the Month Club.
  - stevesimmons 5y ago
    Ah what memories. Tandy Radio Shack in Australia operated the same "Battery of the Month" club in the mid 1980s. I always got the 9V too, which I used for my "150 in 1" electronics kit.
- aendruk 5y ago
  > unfortunately Sounds good to me. Single-use, landfill bound products typically shouldn’t be as inexpensive to the consumer as we’re used to.
- oh_sigh 5y ago
  I would just buy some Panasonic eneloops(NiMH - not an ad, just the battery I have went with after researching this quite a bit) whenever you need to buy alkaline batteries. They are about twice as expensive but are rechargeable 2000+ times, hold their charge for over a year, and don't degrade very much. Eventually all of your devices will have eneloops in them and you will stop buying batteries altogeher.
  - summm 5y ago
    NiMH have 1.2v instead of 1.5. That ist sometimes a problem for cheaper devices that don't have a good voltage regulator. For example Flashlights are notably dimmer.
  - fomine3 5y ago
    eneloop is now produced by FDK, so there are many rebranded products. I often buy Fujitsu one because it's cheaper and they will never change OEM since FDK is owned by Fujitsu. https://eneloop101.com/batteries/rewrapped-batteries/ https://eneloop101.com/batteries/rewrapped-batteries/
  - rootusrootus 5y ago
    I try to use NiMH as much as possible, but there are still a number of applications for which alkaline is superior. First, alkaline usually has more energy. Second, the voltage is more predictable. For devices like door locks that are battery powered and can detect a low battery, alkaline works great. NiMH has lower voltage and looks dead before it is. And lithium (not lithium ion) batteries have a very flat voltage curve and tend to die rather suddenly almost before the device can detect they're end-of-life.
- retrac 5y ago
  It's not nearly as dramatic. But they've surely gotten cheaper. As evidenced by how they have displaced carbon-zinc cells in almost all applications. I checked Radio-Shack's 1981 US catalogue. $2.79 for a 4 pk of store-brand AA alkaline cells. That's $8.20 or so today. You can today, apparently get an 8 pk of Duracell from Wal-Mart at $7.50. Or an 8 pk of store brand alkaline AA cells from Wal-Mart for $3.20.
oblio 5y ago
This is really cool, but could anyone familiar with the domain estimate how far we are along the S-curve? I.e. it took a long time for things to ramp up, then they accelerate really quickly and then they slow down again. Think Moore's Law, which is dead now. What would be the price estimate for 2030, for example. I think we're now around $100 per kwh (or something like that), what should we expect for 2030? $60? $20?
- eloff 5y ago
  > Think Moore's Law, which is dead now. Look again. Moore's law in terms of single threaded performance is dead. In literal terms of number of transistors on a wafer, it's still increasing exponentially, just slower. And in terms of what mattered when people cited Moore's law, the decrease in price/performance, it's still exponential, just slower and multi core. It will end, as all exponential trends must end lest they consume the universe, but the end is not yet in sight. Recently chips have started to go multi chip and three dimensional. So even when we finally hit that scaling limit, we haven't quite reached the end of exponential progress.
  - bin_bash 5y ago
    hasn't it always referred to transistor count and not performance?
    - eloff 5y ago
      Did you read the whole comment? I edited it, but that part was in there from the beginning, just in different words.
      - bin_bash 5y ago
        I agree with you, I just think you weren't making your case strongly enough by implying that Moore's Law referred to more than just transistor count.
        5y ago
deleted 5y ago
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sanj 5y ago
This is very close to 10% per year.
- C-x_C-f 5y ago
  Yeah, pretty much 11% per year: 0.89^30 = 0.030...
squarefoot 5y ago
Although Li-Ion cells are getting cheaper and cheaper every year, it still is worth salvaging the good ones from depleted laptop battery packs. When a laptop battery pack is gone it's almost always the case of one, max two, 18650 elements that failed, not the whole pack. I've built some good power banks using empty shells (very cheap on Ebay, Aliexpress etc.) and fitting inside the good cells salvaged that way. They last just like new ones once one discards the bad ones. The only caveat is that cells taken from laptop battery packs are not individually protected, that is, they don't employ the small pcb containing a protection against excessive charge, discharge, temperature, short circuit, etc. because the needed circuitry is already contained in the laptop battery pack. Power bank shells do indeed contain such protection, so no problems, but care must be taken into insulating the cells contacts so they cannot short, and before fitting them the user must charge each of them to a known identical voltage, so that once they're put in parallel (remember: no individual protection) the strongest ones won't discharge their energy on weaker ones.
- orhmeh09 5y ago
  Does this require special knowledge and experience? I would be afraid to try it myself as I suspect that I or my devices would be harmed, either in the process or later on.
  - squarefoot 5y ago
    Yes, it does. It's not rocket science, but one must know what he is doing, and as with everything that can become really dangerous, it is better to err on the side of safety. To my knowledge, this is the best informational site around regarding various battery technologies (including Lithium), and how to use them safely. https://batteryuniversity.com/learn/ https://batteryuniversity.com/learn/
- quickthrower2 5y ago
  Does this come with a “know what you are doing” caveat? I’d be scared of creating an electric firelighter in the process. Also assuming money is no object. Is it as good for the environment to recycle the old battery and buy a refurbed one.
halotrope 5y ago
This is nothing short of remarkable. Now lets hope that inflation does not make them 97% more expensive again.
- ceejayoz 5y ago
  We’ve had inflation during the entire three decades this decline took place over.
  - halotrope 5y ago
    Check out lumber
    - ceejayoz 5y ago
      A short term supply shock in one unrelated item seems unlikely to change the trend in battery prices.
    - bananabreakfast 5y ago
      That's not inflation. Inflation doesn't just affect a single commodity, it affects all commodities.
  - JohnJamesRambo 5y ago
    We’ve had inflation yes, but what about second inflation?
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
stevejb 5y ago
I just bought a 12v 200ah battery for $2300 AUD. It could be done for less, but this was a premium model. Hopefully when I purchase a second one in a year or two, it will be a bit cheaper.
- quickthrower2 5y ago
  What’s the application? Sounds like the capacity of a standard $200 (yes AUD) car battery. I guess you want to hold onto that energy for a long time?
  - CameronNemo 5y ago
    Lead acid batteries can emit fumes, so they are not useful in the same settings as li-ion batteries.
    - zabzonk 5y ago
      Aren't most lead-acid batteries sealed? The one in my mobility scooter certainly is.
      - CameronNemo 5y ago
        I imagine many are. But in small spaces with poor ventilation (e.g. vehicle interiors) that might not be enough. The sealed batteries still have a vent for the gas to leak (in a controlled manner). https://electronics.stackexchange.com/questions/175649/are-sealed-lead-acid-batteries-safe-to-use-indoors#191938 https://electronics.stackexchange.com/questions/175649/are-s... But besides that, li-ion batteries have more energy per weight, are more efficient at storing energy, and can be discharged to a farther level without negatively impacting the battery. Sorry for the annoying popups, this is the best source I could find: https://news.energysage.com/lithium-ion-vs-lead-acid-batteries/ https://news.energysage.com/lithium-ion-vs-lead-acid-batteri...
      - extrapickles 5y ago
        Only smaller ones are, and they can still vent hydrogen in some cases. All sealed lead-acid batteries have shorter lifespans as you can’t add water to them to replace water lost to hydrogen gas production.
cm2187 5y ago
That's not the price of batteries in general, that's the price of Li-Ion batteries. Were Li-Ion batteries mass produced in 1991?
- reportingsjr 5y ago
  The first commercial/mass produced lithium ion batteries came out in exactly 1991 as a matter of fact! They were used in a Sony camera.
- elihu 5y ago
  The other commenter says that they were first introduced as a commercial product in 1991. According to Wikipedia, they were preceded by two years by the first commercially-available nickel-metal hydride cells in 1989, so that would be an interesting point of comparison. Also nickel-cadmium and lead-acid have been around for a very long time. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nickel%E2%80%93metal_hydride_battery https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nickel%E2%80%93metal_hydride_b...
  - stormbrew 5y ago
    I remember a lot of stuff having NiMH for a long time throughout the 90s, seemed like it took LiIon a lot longer to catch on.
    - taf2 5y ago
      We raced electric RC cars in the 90s (really my dad and brother - I mostly just liked the smells and ideas). But I know my brother said to win they always had to have fresh as new batteries and as I recall they were NiMH
      - paulmd 5y ago
        Yes, performance of a battery declined over time, just as "battery health" declines on your phone today, for the same reasons. Mostly due to surface oxidation of the electrodes iirc. Lithium-ion was never a good idea due to the fire hazard (in a crash they would just straight up explode, not even just cause a raging uncontrollable fire like LiPo, just boom) and Lithium-polymer could not support the necessary discharge rates (which I believe was also true of li-ion at the time too...). Early LiPo packs were only rated to like 0.5C or 1C peak discharge - this means, for a 2 amp-hour pack, 1C would be a discharge rate of 2 amps. Even then the packs did not really do well at their rated discharge rates - NiMH packs were far more tolerant of abuse in terms of discharge rates, in some cases you could push well beyond the rated spec and they would take it for a year or two's worth of sessions. I was an "early adopter" on electric R/C airplanes back in the day (this would have been like 2000-2004) and the early stuff I used was mostly repurposed stuff from electric cars. The changeover to 4/5 or 2/3rds sub-C cells was a big deal at the time, the first "good" packs I owned were something called "HeCells" around 1800mAH or 2000 mAH, I also used KAN 1100mah cells. What I finally settled on at the time were these Sanyo "1950FAUP" cells which were extraordinary performers - we could push those cells to 70-80 amps peak discharge and they would take it. So in terms of the way LiPos are rated today[0], that is 40C discharge. This would only be doable for short periods, but it is necessary for launch and climbout (when the motor is running flat-out and the wing is basically stalled). Without the ability to sustain those currents it becomes very difficult to launch. Even still we did not "taxi" them like a normal airplane (or a normal model airplane), just wasn't enough power to get off the ground without a paved strip. We typically expected about 10-15 minutes of flight time if you were flying normally, maybe 8-10 if you were really hotdogging it. So that means we averaged about 6C over the course of a flight (higher during climbout, less during cruising). Another unsung miracle is how much motor technology has improved over the same period. My early motors were, again, repurposed brushed motors from Graupner's electric car lineup. We later moved onto some brushed Kyosho "magnetic mayhem" car motors that could push even higher levels of current. There was a Czech company called "Mega" who was an early mover on small neodymium brushless motors and that was a big deal at the time, they were far more powerful and far more efficient. Nowadays you don't even think about it, they're just a commodity, but at the time even a small brushless motor would run you about $130 or so! [0] (tangent but it's kinda weird that NiCd and NiMH cells have traditionally been specced in amps but LiPo cells are specced in terms of "C discharge", obviously it's trivial to move between the two if you know the capacity of the pack but there's a definite difference in "style" of how the discharge rates are represented here...)
quickthrowman 5y ago
I’ve been buying 18650 cells for 6 years and they’re always the same price shrug
- colechristensen 5y ago
  Has the capacity gone up?
  - quickthrowman 5y ago
    No, I’ve been buying 2500 mAH batteries rated for 20A draw for 5.50 a piece, mostly Sony and Panasonic from illumn
    - 14 5y ago
      I am curious, what kind of projects do you do with those batteries, what is their use for? Thank you
      - mschuster91 5y ago
        E-cigarettes or cannabis vaper if I were to guess, this is (other than RC drones) the only thing where you need the rated discharge current.
        vosper 5y ago
        They’re very popular in the boutique flashlight industry
        quickthrowman 5y ago
        Bingo, it’s the nicotine vapor
      - japanuspus 5y ago
        I use 18650 cells over pocket cells in my hobby projects if possible: partly because I find it easier to get consistent quality 18650's in my local market (shipping lithium ion batteries is a hassle), partly because it allows me to use the same pool of batteries across many things (power banks, torches, different DIY-projects).
dukeofdoom 5y ago
Thanks to all the lonely women out there.
darig 5y ago
Then explain to me why I just paid $175 for a car battery, and after looking around, it looks like I got a deal. (same battery going for over 200) The believability of published statistics has declined by 97% in the last three decades.
cbmuser 5y ago
Yes, but their energy density has hardly changed and every gasoline tank beats your average LiIon battery by a factor of 10: > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density#In_chemical_reactions_(oxidation) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density#In_chemical_rea...
- gameswithgo 5y ago
  Don’t forget to account for the differences in engine and drivetrain efficiency. a gasoline engine gets way less of the gasoline's energy to the wheels. The engines of today are 30-40% efficient iirc, and then you lose more in the tranmission, differentials, etc. Electric motors are ~80-96% efficient and there is less transmission losses involved after that too. also energy density of cells and packs continues to improve and has improved a lot since 1991
  - siproprio 5y ago
    Source?
    - gameswithgo 5y ago
      One source on recent energy density improvements: https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/19/bloombergnef-lithium-ion-battery-cell-densities-have-almost-tripled-since-2010/ https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/19/bloombergnef-lithium-io... A source on electric motor efficiency: https://insideevs.com/news/348504/tesla-improves-motor-efficiency-increase-range/ https://insideevs.com/news/348504/tesla-improves-motor-effic... A source on internal combustion engine efficiency: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Engine_efficiency#Internal_combustion_engines https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Engine_efficiency#Internal_com... As to the drivetrain losses through transmissions and differentials, I have only my own experience from working on cars, dynos (measuring the power to the wheels), and racing. It depends on drivetrain layout. front engine front wheel drive has fewer losses than front engine rear wheel drive, all wheel drive usually worst of all. You lose another 5-15% depending. Probably you will also find this video interesting, which goes into depth on the full lifecycle of different fuels and the overall efficiencies: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0d0MPg7DxbY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0d0MPg7DxbY
dceddia 5y ago
Funny, it seems like batteries for my car are like 2-3x what they used to be.
- pryelluw 5y ago
  Well, the technology on 12v car batteries has continued to advance. /s It’s ridiculous how expensive they’ve become. More so when there is no R&D costs associated. Manufacturers simply slap on a different name and sell it at a premium.
  - Syonyk 5y ago
    Car batteries are heavily dependent on the price of lead. You can look at the 25Y lead price chart here: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lead https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lead So much of the difference comes from that. Though there has been quite a bit of development on lead acid batteries, and the last 10-15 years have actually been quite exciting. The focus is more on the deep cycle/energy storage side of them, as opposed to car batteries (which, as you note, are largely a solved problem). But there have been some very real innovations and developments, mostly related to carbon additives into the plates in various forms. Cycling lead acid creates sulfation on the plates - it's quite literally how the chemistry works. On most of the pure metal plates (lead or alloyed for strength or other useful attributes), running at partial state of charge for any real length of time tends to turn these soft sulfation points (that dissolve back during charging) into a harder form of sulfation that doesn't easily dissolve back. This leads to a capacity loss, and general loss of function as more and more of the plate area is covered in these hard crystals that block any real function. Sometimes an equalize charge (high voltage) can break them up, sometimes various pulse chains can help break them free or re-dissolve them, but it's been a long standing problem with lead acid, especially for energy storage (which is more likely to be partial state of charge for long periods of time). In the past decade or two, people have been experimenting with various carbon additives in the plates, and for reasons I don't understand (and I'm honestly not sure they understand either), these work to help prevent the sulfation from hardening. You see it in most of the solar focused batteries these days (Trojan's name for it is Smart Carbon), and what it means is that even after a few weeks of running at partial state of charge, the battery is more likely to full drive off the sulfation and charge fully when recharged. It improves capacity, and substantially improves lifespan in certain operating modes. And to touch on car batteries, the various "mild hybrid" systems that adjust alternator output to help improve efficiency (leave alternator load light until braking, then load up the alternator and charge the battery quickly) tend to benefit from this sort of change as well, because they cycle a car battery far deeper than a typical starter only use would do. Pushing things to the limit of lead acid technology, Firefly Energy (which I believe was spun off Caterpillar - yes, the earth moving equipment company) has an interesting lead-carbon-foam battery that, from everything I've seen, behaves an awful lot more like a lithium battery than anything normal for lead. It provides a lot of current, and it more or less doesn't care what state of charge you keep it at. Charge it fully for a cycle or two, and even after long extended partial state of charge operation, it will recover original capacity. I believe it's also a lot less prone to shedding active material during charging, which is the end case of a lot of lead acid batteries (you literally end up with the bulk of the plate material at the bottom of the cell, and a good deep cycle battery will have a larger well at the bottom to help prevent shorting a cell group). Despite being 150 years old, there's still very much a lot of new development in lead acid batteries, and they've continued to improve quite a bit in recent years. Plus, unlike lithium, we actually have incredibly good recycling for them. Something like 98% of lead acid batteries are recycled (at least in some countries, others have low rates), and just about every part can be reused. The lead, the acid, and the casing can all be quite reasonably recycled (smelting, purifying, and grinding into plastic pellets) into new batteries with no real loss of capability.
timonoko 5y ago
AAs with 500 mAh capacity and 50 mA charging was a marvel at the time. My greatest invention was that I connected bicycle dynamo directly to a small windmill and upped the voltage with diode ladder. It gave only 50 mA, but alas, that was what those batteries were rated for. Wind blows 24/7 so it was remarkable if you compare with solar panels. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XYorx9C-OEE&t=26s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XYorx9C-OEE&t=26s
- timonoko 5y ago
  Started to wonder why there is a switch on the charger box. Finally dawned on me: You cannot have the LED blinking and using 20 mA when your total energy production is 50 mA.
whatever1 5y ago
The flip side is that we got almost no improvements in energy density for 3 decades. Thank you for the cost reduction, but it is not enough.
- speedgoose 5y ago
  From what I understood,you can't store a lot more energy without unwanted side effects using the current technology.
rsj_hn 5y ago
Pretty misleading title. In 1990 you could buy a AA duracel for 30 cents[0] update: older model. Alkaline may have been higher (see comments). Presently at Walmart you can get them for about 68 cents (24 pack for 16.24[1]). That's a nominal price increase of roughly 100%, although of course in real terms, it is flat (30 cents in 1990 were about 63 cents today). But those are alkaline batteries. This article is comparing the costs of prototypes of Lithium ion batteries in 1991 to mass production unit costs today. That unit costs fell massive from prototype to mass production stage is neither newsworthy nor interesting. [0] https://www.nytimes.com/1990/01/20/style/consumer-s-world-coping-with-a-blizzard-of-batteries.html https://www.nytimes.com/1990/01/20/style/consumer-s-world-co... [1] https://www.walmart.com/browse/household-essentials/aa-batteries/1115193_1076905_4272101 https://www.walmart.com/browse/household-essentials/aa-batte...
- ZeroGravitas 5y ago
  > What’s promising is that prices are still falling steeply: the cost halved between 2014 and 2018. A halving in only four years.
- h0l0cube 5y ago
  Replace 'price' with 'production cost', and factor in inflation, and maybe there's a decline over time even for alkaline batteries. But at such a low production cost, the shelf-space is likely to be the biggest factor at point of sale. That, and the mark-up will be set at whatever the market will bear.
- flexie 5y ago
  Did anyone really read the title thinking that the article was about alkaline batteries? I think not. The title is not misleading. It's incomplete, as titles are by nature. Titles are not supposed to include all caveats and modifications. The title also doesn't say that the decline is measured in dollars. Probably the price has dropped much less or much more when measured in other currencies that have moved relative to the dollar. The title also doesn't mention whether it's adjusted for inflation. It also doesn't specify whether that's the price at the consumer level or the price paid by manufacturers. Whether it's when you buy the battery in America or somewhere else on the planet. As long as a title doesn't deliberately seek to mislead, it's not misleading. The intended audience expected this to be about lithium ion batteries.
FabHK 5y ago
Nice that the cost has come down. Unfortunately, that which makes electric cars and planes feasible, namely energy density (Wh/litre) and specific energy (Wh/kg), has not improved that rapidly. The article mentions a factor of 3.4 over 30 years for energy density, ie 4% p.a., or doubling every 17 years. I think electric aircraft need another doubling or two in specific energy to become feasible, so another few decades :-/
- walrus01 5y ago
  If one looks at the Wh/kg of the very best li ion batteries right now (about 250Wh/kg) and then compares it to the Wh/kg in avgas or jet a or diesel, it's nuts. Even if you lose 40-60% to waste heat. The amount of energy contained in those fuels is ridiculously dense by comparison.
  - winter_blue 5y ago
    It looks like diesel holds ~10,700 Wh/kg[1]. That’s over 40 times the volumetric energy density. I hope people find an electrical energy storage system (ie a battery) that’s cheap, and with high mass and volumetric energy density, soon. That would be huge for solving the impending climate (and pollution) crisis. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density#In_chemical_reactions_(oxidation) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density#In_chemical_r...
    - SigmundA 5y ago
      You must account for all the equipment to convert fuel into mechanical work as well. A battery is a large part of the equipment to covert electrons into useful electricity and electric motors and controller are comparatively light weight. Energy density is still higher I have done rough calculations that say batteries need to be at about 2000 wh/kg to be at parity with a diesel semi and the theoretic upper limit for lithium is 2600 wh/kg.
  - mgoetzke 5y ago
    And the energy stored in it does not need to be paid :) That is why these companies make so much money of course.
Markoff 5y ago
yet their energy density didn't grow almost at all in last decade, I don't need cheaper battery, I need battery with significantly higher density, in previous decades density was pretty much doubling every 10 years, but this stopped in 2010, then in last 10 years was density growth how much 10-20% ?
fitzie 5y ago
a more useful measure might be the trend of how much over the cost of materials does a li-ion cost. that excess cost, could be broken into the lack of automation, manufacturing inefficiencies (waste biproducts) and capital overhead. from Tesla "battery day" it is clear that reducing capital overhead was an important goal to reducing costs.

477 points by infodocket 5y ago

I don't think this applies to Duracell or Energizer alkaline batteries unfortunately :( Of course reading the article they are talking about Lithium Ion batteries.

blibble 5y ago
you're paying for the brand, shelf position and other advertising cheap and reputable supermarket brand ones last just long
- Dylan16807 5y ago
  Looking at a couple stores, the difference is around 50 cents per AA vs. 70 cents per AA at moderate pack sizes. That's good in comparison but it's about the same price it was a decade ago. Even comparing to 1990, when "alkaline" wasn't yet the default, they were about the same price. "Alkaline: These cost about $2 to $3 a pair for C or D flashlight cells, and about half that for the AA and smaller AAA penlight batteries." At best you can say they've dropped along with inflation, which is a factor of 2.
- fspeech 5y ago
  GP meant price for alkaline batteries did not come down. Another point to consider is if you leave the alkaline battery in for too long will the chemical leak and ruin your device? The damage to your device from a broken battery could easily exceed the cost differential. I don't have solid evidence that brand names work better in this regard but I have definitely experienced repeatedly generic batteries having white corrosive crystaline stuff formed all around them.
  - lostapathy 5y ago
    People should quit buying alkaline batteries anyway. NiMH batteries are great for just about every application you'd use a throway for, and you only have to recharge them about twice to "get your money back."
    - Answerawake 5y ago
      The starting voltage is lower and drops faster making them not ideal for some applications and just annoying for some others (ie. motors start slow and get slower quicker than Alkaline). Charge speeds also suck unless you get some of the fancy expensive chargers.
      - lostapathy 5y ago
        Yeah, there are some things they aren't great on but for most things they are fine. > Charge speeds also suck unless you get some of the fancy expensive chargers. This has been a total non-issue to me. I have 30 or 40 batteries running around total, keeping 4 spares on the charger is no big deal
- adventured 5y ago
  No question. Same thing you see in the generic pain relief aisle (ibuprofen, acetaminophen, et al), and many common grocery items. 10 pack of AA Rayovac batteries at Walmart: $3.20 Eight pack of AA Duracell: $7.47 Pretty ridiculous. For $7.78 you can get a 24 pack of ACDelco AA batteries (granted I don't know how that brand stands up on quality).
- jl6 5y ago
  How do you tell the difference between a battery brand that is more expensive because the battery has greater capacity (“heavy duty”, “extra long life”, etc.) and a brand that is more expensive because of the brand name? Last time I looked in the supermarket there were no comparable metrics printed on the packaging.
  - buescher 5y ago
    You can't, and you don't know who is private labeling what, either. If you can get a data sheet, the better companies have more detailed data sheets. Personally, I like the Energizer (primary, i.e. disposable) lithiums for nice things like my old HP logic dart that will sit in a drawer for a long time between uses, and Panasonic (formerly Sanyo) Eneloop NiMH batteries for most other things, and the cheapo Costco batteries for when I really don't care. The three major US brands of alkaline batteries all have warranties for corrosion damage. I don't know of any other brands that do. I have seen corrosion in every brand of alkaline battery I've ever bought but have never tried to collect on any warranty. “Energizer will repair or replace, at our option, any device damaged by leakage from Energizer MAX® Alkaline batteries either during the life of the battery or within two years following the full use of the battery.” https://www.energizer.com/about-batteries/battery-leakage https://www.energizer.com/about-batteries/battery-leakage “Duracell guarantees its batteries against defects in materials and workmanship. Should any device be damaged due to a battery defect, we will repair or replace it at our option.” https://www.duracell.com/en-ca/technology/battery-care-use-and-disposal/ https://www.duracell.com/en-ca/technology/battery-care-use-a... "In the unlikely event of alkaline battery leakage, any battery operated device that is damaged by RAYOVAC® Alkaline Batteries will be repaired, replaced or refunded, at our option, as long as the batteries have not expired or been mixed by expiry date and/or battery type.” http://www.rayovac.com/support/warranties-and-guarantees.aspx http://www.rayovac.com/support/warranties-and-guarantees.asp...
    - Answerawake 5y ago
      I have a unproven suspicion that Rechargeable Energizer may actually be Panasonic cells. I tend to see them both marked as made in Japan and they both seem to be great quality.
- Answerawake 5y ago
  >cheap and reputable supermarket brand ones last just long Absolutely not. There are plenty of Youtubers testing this theory. Here is a pretty credible reviewer https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V7-ghrTqA44 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V7-ghrTqA44 I personally have had nightmarish results with Amazon Basics Alkaline. In my experience these batteries have a greater tendency than other brands to leak over time and have destroyed multiple electronic equipment that I have owned. It was a big mistake on my part because I bought a large package of them, installed them and then didn't realize that many of them leaked until it was too late and they have eaten away many terminals in the different devices I put them in.
  - blibble 5y ago
    > I personally have had nightmarish results with Amazon Basics Alkaline. I did say reputable! re: the video, he should really test more than a single pack of batteries of each type...
tamaharbor 5y ago
I used to get free batteries (size of my choice, I always chose the more expensive rectangular 9v ones) as an official member of the Radio Shack Battery of the Month Club.
- stevesimmons 5y ago
  Ah what memories. Tandy Radio Shack in Australia operated the same "Battery of the Month" club in the mid 1980s. I always got the 9V too, which I used for my "150 in 1" electronics kit.
aendruk 5y ago
> unfortunately Sounds good to me. Single-use, landfill bound products typically shouldn’t be as inexpensive to the consumer as we’re used to.
oh_sigh 5y ago
I would just buy some Panasonic eneloops(NiMH - not an ad, just the battery I have went with after researching this quite a bit) whenever you need to buy alkaline batteries. They are about twice as expensive but are rechargeable 2000+ times, hold their charge for over a year, and don't degrade very much. Eventually all of your devices will have eneloops in them and you will stop buying batteries altogeher.
- summm 5y ago
  NiMH have 1.2v instead of 1.5. That ist sometimes a problem for cheaper devices that don't have a good voltage regulator. For example Flashlights are notably dimmer.
- fomine3 5y ago
  eneloop is now produced by FDK, so there are many rebranded products. I often buy Fujitsu one because it's cheaper and they will never change OEM since FDK is owned by Fujitsu. https://eneloop101.com/batteries/rewrapped-batteries/ https://eneloop101.com/batteries/rewrapped-batteries/
- rootusrootus 5y ago
  I try to use NiMH as much as possible, but there are still a number of applications for which alkaline is superior. First, alkaline usually has more energy. Second, the voltage is more predictable. For devices like door locks that are battery powered and can detect a low battery, alkaline works great. NiMH has lower voltage and looks dead before it is. And lithium (not lithium ion) batteries have a very flat voltage curve and tend to die rather suddenly almost before the device can detect they're end-of-life.
retrac 5y ago
It's not nearly as dramatic. But they've surely gotten cheaper. As evidenced by how they have displaced carbon-zinc cells in almost all applications. I checked Radio-Shack's 1981 US catalogue. $2.79 for a 4 pk of store-brand AA alkaline cells. That's $8.20 or so today. You can today, apparently get an 8 pk of Duracell from Wal-Mart at $7.50. Or an 8 pk of store brand alkaline AA cells from Wal-Mart for $3.20.

oblio 5y ago

This is really cool, but could anyone familiar with the domain estimate how far we are along the S-curve? I.e. it took a long time for things to ramp up, then they accelerate really quickly and then they slow down again. Think Moore's Law, which is dead now. What would be the price estimate for 2030, for example. I think we're now around $100 per kwh (or something like that), what should we expect for 2030? $60? $20?

eloff 5y ago
> Think Moore's Law, which is dead now. Look again. Moore's law in terms of single threaded performance is dead. In literal terms of number of transistors on a wafer, it's still increasing exponentially, just slower. And in terms of what mattered when people cited Moore's law, the decrease in price/performance, it's still exponential, just slower and multi core. It will end, as all exponential trends must end lest they consume the universe, but the end is not yet in sight. Recently chips have started to go multi chip and three dimensional. So even when we finally hit that scaling limit, we haven't quite reached the end of exponential progress.
- bin_bash 5y ago
  hasn't it always referred to transistor count and not performance?
  - eloff 5y ago
    Did you read the whole comment? I edited it, but that part was in there from the beginning, just in different words.
    - bin_bash 5y ago
      I agree with you, I just think you weren't making your case strongly enough by implying that Moore's Law referred to more than just transistor count.
      - 5y ago

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

sanj 5y ago

This is very close to 10% per year.

C-x_C-f 5y ago
Yeah, pretty much 11% per year: 0.89^30 = 0.030...

squarefoot 5y ago

Although Li-Ion cells are getting cheaper and cheaper every year, it still is worth salvaging the good ones from depleted laptop battery packs. When a laptop battery pack is gone it's almost always the case of one, max two, 18650 elements that failed, not the whole pack. I've built some good power banks using empty shells (very cheap on Ebay, Aliexpress etc.) and fitting inside the good cells salvaged that way. They last just like new ones once one discards the bad ones. The only caveat is that cells taken from laptop battery packs are not individually protected, that is, they don't employ the small pcb containing a protection against excessive charge, discharge, temperature, short circuit, etc. because the needed circuitry is already contained in the laptop battery pack. Power bank shells do indeed contain such protection, so no problems, but care must be taken into insulating the cells contacts so they cannot short, and before fitting them the user must charge each of them to a known identical voltage, so that once they're put in parallel (remember: no individual protection) the strongest ones won't discharge their energy on weaker ones.

orhmeh09 5y ago
Does this require special knowledge and experience? I would be afraid to try it myself as I suspect that I or my devices would be harmed, either in the process or later on.
- squarefoot 5y ago
  Yes, it does. It's not rocket science, but one must know what he is doing, and as with everything that can become really dangerous, it is better to err on the side of safety. To my knowledge, this is the best informational site around regarding various battery technologies (including Lithium), and how to use them safely. https://batteryuniversity.com/learn/ https://batteryuniversity.com/learn/
quickthrower2 5y ago
Does this come with a “know what you are doing” caveat? I’d be scared of creating an electric firelighter in the process. Also assuming money is no object. Is it as good for the environment to recycle the old battery and buy a refurbed one.

halotrope 5y ago

This is nothing short of remarkable. Now lets hope that inflation does not make them 97% more expensive again.

ceejayoz 5y ago
We’ve had inflation during the entire three decades this decline took place over.
- halotrope 5y ago
  Check out lumber
  - ceejayoz 5y ago
    A short term supply shock in one unrelated item seems unlikely to change the trend in battery prices.
  - bananabreakfast 5y ago
    That's not inflation. Inflation doesn't just affect a single commodity, it affects all commodities.
- JohnJamesRambo 5y ago
  We’ve had inflation yes, but what about second inflation?
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]

stevejb 5y ago

I just bought a 12v 200ah battery for $2300 AUD. It could be done for less, but this was a premium model. Hopefully when I purchase a second one in a year or two, it will be a bit cheaper.

quickthrower2 5y ago
What’s the application? Sounds like the capacity of a standard $200 (yes AUD) car battery. I guess you want to hold onto that energy for a long time?
- CameronNemo 5y ago
  Lead acid batteries can emit fumes, so they are not useful in the same settings as li-ion batteries.
  - zabzonk 5y ago
    Aren't most lead-acid batteries sealed? The one in my mobility scooter certainly is.
    - CameronNemo 5y ago
      I imagine many are. But in small spaces with poor ventilation (e.g. vehicle interiors) that might not be enough. The sealed batteries still have a vent for the gas to leak (in a controlled manner). https://electronics.stackexchange.com/questions/175649/are-sealed-lead-acid-batteries-safe-to-use-indoors#191938 https://electronics.stackexchange.com/questions/175649/are-s... But besides that, li-ion batteries have more energy per weight, are more efficient at storing energy, and can be discharged to a farther level without negatively impacting the battery. Sorry for the annoying popups, this is the best source I could find: https://news.energysage.com/lithium-ion-vs-lead-acid-batteries/ https://news.energysage.com/lithium-ion-vs-lead-acid-batteri...
    - extrapickles 5y ago
      Only smaller ones are, and they can still vent hydrogen in some cases. All sealed lead-acid batteries have shorter lifespans as you can’t add water to them to replace water lost to hydrogen gas production.

cm2187 5y ago

That's not the price of batteries in general, that's the price of Li-Ion batteries. Were Li-Ion batteries mass produced in 1991?

reportingsjr 5y ago
The first commercial/mass produced lithium ion batteries came out in exactly 1991 as a matter of fact! They were used in a Sony camera.
elihu 5y ago
The other commenter says that they were first introduced as a commercial product in 1991. According to Wikipedia, they were preceded by two years by the first commercially-available nickel-metal hydride cells in 1989, so that would be an interesting point of comparison. Also nickel-cadmium and lead-acid have been around for a very long time. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nickel%E2%80%93metal_hydride_battery https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nickel%E2%80%93metal_hydride_b...
- stormbrew 5y ago
  I remember a lot of stuff having NiMH for a long time throughout the 90s, seemed like it took LiIon a lot longer to catch on.
  - taf2 5y ago
    We raced electric RC cars in the 90s (really my dad and brother - I mostly just liked the smells and ideas). But I know my brother said to win they always had to have fresh as new batteries and as I recall they were NiMH
    - paulmd 5y ago
      Yes, performance of a battery declined over time, just as "battery health" declines on your phone today, for the same reasons. Mostly due to surface oxidation of the electrodes iirc. Lithium-ion was never a good idea due to the fire hazard (in a crash they would just straight up explode, not even just cause a raging uncontrollable fire like LiPo, just boom) and Lithium-polymer could not support the necessary discharge rates (which I believe was also true of li-ion at the time too...). Early LiPo packs were only rated to like 0.5C or 1C peak discharge - this means, for a 2 amp-hour pack, 1C would be a discharge rate of 2 amps. Even then the packs did not really do well at their rated discharge rates - NiMH packs were far more tolerant of abuse in terms of discharge rates, in some cases you could push well beyond the rated spec and they would take it for a year or two's worth of sessions. I was an "early adopter" on electric R/C airplanes back in the day (this would have been like 2000-2004) and the early stuff I used was mostly repurposed stuff from electric cars. The changeover to 4/5 or 2/3rds sub-C cells was a big deal at the time, the first "good" packs I owned were something called "HeCells" around 1800mAH or 2000 mAH, I also used KAN 1100mah cells. What I finally settled on at the time were these Sanyo "1950FAUP" cells which were extraordinary performers - we could push those cells to 70-80 amps peak discharge and they would take it. So in terms of the way LiPos are rated today[0], that is 40C discharge. This would only be doable for short periods, but it is necessary for launch and climbout (when the motor is running flat-out and the wing is basically stalled). Without the ability to sustain those currents it becomes very difficult to launch. Even still we did not "taxi" them like a normal airplane (or a normal model airplane), just wasn't enough power to get off the ground without a paved strip. We typically expected about 10-15 minutes of flight time if you were flying normally, maybe 8-10 if you were really hotdogging it. So that means we averaged about 6C over the course of a flight (higher during climbout, less during cruising). Another unsung miracle is how much motor technology has improved over the same period. My early motors were, again, repurposed brushed motors from Graupner's electric car lineup. We later moved onto some brushed Kyosho "magnetic mayhem" car motors that could push even higher levels of current. There was a Czech company called "Mega" who was an early mover on small neodymium brushless motors and that was a big deal at the time, they were far more powerful and far more efficient. Nowadays you don't even think about it, they're just a commodity, but at the time even a small brushless motor would run you about $130 or so! [0] (tangent but it's kinda weird that NiCd and NiMH cells have traditionally been specced in amps but LiPo cells are specced in terms of "C discharge", obviously it's trivial to move between the two if you know the capacity of the pack but there's a definite difference in "style" of how the discharge rates are represented here...)

quickthrowman 5y ago

I’ve been buying 18650 cells for 6 years and they’re always the same price shrug

colechristensen 5y ago
Has the capacity gone up?
- quickthrowman 5y ago
  No, I’ve been buying 2500 mAH batteries rated for 20A draw for 5.50 a piece, mostly Sony and Panasonic from illumn
  - 14 5y ago
    I am curious, what kind of projects do you do with those batteries, what is their use for? Thank you
    - mschuster91 5y ago
      E-cigarettes or cannabis vaper if I were to guess, this is (other than RC drones) the only thing where you need the rated discharge current.
      - vosper 5y ago
        They’re very popular in the boutique flashlight industry
      - quickthrowman 5y ago
        Bingo, it’s the nicotine vapor
    - japanuspus 5y ago
      I use 18650 cells over pocket cells in my hobby projects if possible: partly because I find it easier to get consistent quality 18650's in my local market (shipping lithium ion batteries is a hassle), partly because it allows me to use the same pool of batteries across many things (power banks, torches, different DIY-projects).

dukeofdoom 5y ago

Thanks to all the lonely women out there.

darig 5y ago

Then explain to me why I just paid $175 for a car battery, and after looking around, it looks like I got a deal. (same battery going for over 200) The believability of published statistics has declined by 97% in the last three decades.

cbmuser 5y ago

Yes, but their energy density has hardly changed and every gasoline tank beats your average LiIon battery by a factor of 10: > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density#In_chemical_reactions_(oxidation) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density#In_chemical_rea...

gameswithgo 5y ago
Don’t forget to account for the differences in engine and drivetrain efficiency. a gasoline engine gets way less of the gasoline's energy to the wheels. The engines of today are 30-40% efficient iirc, and then you lose more in the tranmission, differentials, etc. Electric motors are ~80-96% efficient and there is less transmission losses involved after that too. also energy density of cells and packs continues to improve and has improved a lot since 1991
- siproprio 5y ago
  Source?
  - gameswithgo 5y ago
    One source on recent energy density improvements: https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/19/bloombergnef-lithium-ion-battery-cell-densities-have-almost-tripled-since-2010/ https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/19/bloombergnef-lithium-io... A source on electric motor efficiency: https://insideevs.com/news/348504/tesla-improves-motor-efficiency-increase-range/ https://insideevs.com/news/348504/tesla-improves-motor-effic... A source on internal combustion engine efficiency: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Engine_efficiency#Internal_combustion_engines https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Engine_efficiency#Internal_com... As to the drivetrain losses through transmissions and differentials, I have only my own experience from working on cars, dynos (measuring the power to the wheels), and racing. It depends on drivetrain layout. front engine front wheel drive has fewer losses than front engine rear wheel drive, all wheel drive usually worst of all. You lose another 5-15% depending. Probably you will also find this video interesting, which goes into depth on the full lifecycle of different fuels and the overall efficiencies: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0d0MPg7DxbY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0d0MPg7DxbY

dceddia 5y ago

Funny, it seems like batteries for my car are like 2-3x what they used to be.

pryelluw 5y ago
Well, the technology on 12v car batteries has continued to advance. /s It’s ridiculous how expensive they’ve become. More so when there is no R&D costs associated. Manufacturers simply slap on a different name and sell it at a premium.
- Syonyk 5y ago
  Car batteries are heavily dependent on the price of lead. You can look at the 25Y lead price chart here: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lead https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lead So much of the difference comes from that. Though there has been quite a bit of development on lead acid batteries, and the last 10-15 years have actually been quite exciting. The focus is more on the deep cycle/energy storage side of them, as opposed to car batteries (which, as you note, are largely a solved problem). But there have been some very real innovations and developments, mostly related to carbon additives into the plates in various forms. Cycling lead acid creates sulfation on the plates - it's quite literally how the chemistry works. On most of the pure metal plates (lead or alloyed for strength or other useful attributes), running at partial state of charge for any real length of time tends to turn these soft sulfation points (that dissolve back during charging) into a harder form of sulfation that doesn't easily dissolve back. This leads to a capacity loss, and general loss of function as more and more of the plate area is covered in these hard crystals that block any real function. Sometimes an equalize charge (high voltage) can break them up, sometimes various pulse chains can help break them free or re-dissolve them, but it's been a long standing problem with lead acid, especially for energy storage (which is more likely to be partial state of charge for long periods of time). In the past decade or two, people have been experimenting with various carbon additives in the plates, and for reasons I don't understand (and I'm honestly not sure they understand either), these work to help prevent the sulfation from hardening. You see it in most of the solar focused batteries these days (Trojan's name for it is Smart Carbon), and what it means is that even after a few weeks of running at partial state of charge, the battery is more likely to full drive off the sulfation and charge fully when recharged. It improves capacity, and substantially improves lifespan in certain operating modes. And to touch on car batteries, the various "mild hybrid" systems that adjust alternator output to help improve efficiency (leave alternator load light until braking, then load up the alternator and charge the battery quickly) tend to benefit from this sort of change as well, because they cycle a car battery far deeper than a typical starter only use would do. Pushing things to the limit of lead acid technology, Firefly Energy (which I believe was spun off Caterpillar - yes, the earth moving equipment company) has an interesting lead-carbon-foam battery that, from everything I've seen, behaves an awful lot more like a lithium battery than anything normal for lead. It provides a lot of current, and it more or less doesn't care what state of charge you keep it at. Charge it fully for a cycle or two, and even after long extended partial state of charge operation, it will recover original capacity. I believe it's also a lot less prone to shedding active material during charging, which is the end case of a lot of lead acid batteries (you literally end up with the bulk of the plate material at the bottom of the cell, and a good deep cycle battery will have a larger well at the bottom to help prevent shorting a cell group). Despite being 150 years old, there's still very much a lot of new development in lead acid batteries, and they've continued to improve quite a bit in recent years. Plus, unlike lithium, we actually have incredibly good recycling for them. Something like 98% of lead acid batteries are recycled (at least in some countries, others have low rates), and just about every part can be reused. The lead, the acid, and the casing can all be quite reasonably recycled (smelting, purifying, and grinding into plastic pellets) into new batteries with no real loss of capability.

timonoko 5y ago

AAs with 500 mAh capacity and 50 mA charging was a marvel at the time. My greatest invention was that I connected bicycle dynamo directly to a small windmill and upped the voltage with diode ladder. It gave only 50 mA, but alas, that was what those batteries were rated for. Wind blows 24/7 so it was remarkable if you compare with solar panels. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XYorx9C-OEE&t=26s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XYorx9C-OEE&t=26s

timonoko 5y ago
Started to wonder why there is a switch on the charger box. Finally dawned on me: You cannot have the LED blinking and using 20 mA when your total energy production is 50 mA.

whatever1 5y ago

The flip side is that we got almost no improvements in energy density for 3 decades. Thank you for the cost reduction, but it is not enough.

speedgoose 5y ago
From what I understood,you can't store a lot more energy without unwanted side effects using the current technology.

rsj_hn 5y ago

Pretty misleading title. In 1990 you could buy a AA duracel for 30 cents[0] update: older model. Alkaline may have been higher (see comments). Presently at Walmart you can get them for about 68 cents (24 pack for 16.24[1]). That's a nominal price increase of roughly 100%, although of course in real terms, it is flat (30 cents in 1990 were about 63 cents today). But those are alkaline batteries. This article is comparing the costs of prototypes of Lithium ion batteries in 1991 to mass production unit costs today. That unit costs fell massive from prototype to mass production stage is neither newsworthy nor interesting. [0] https://www.nytimes.com/1990/01/20/style/consumer-s-world-coping-with-a-blizzard-of-batteries.html https://www.nytimes.com/1990/01/20/style/consumer-s-world-co... [1] https://www.walmart.com/browse/household-essentials/aa-batteries/1115193_1076905_4272101 https://www.walmart.com/browse/household-essentials/aa-batte...

ZeroGravitas 5y ago
> What’s promising is that prices are still falling steeply: the cost halved between 2014 and 2018. A halving in only four years.
h0l0cube 5y ago
Replace 'price' with 'production cost', and factor in inflation, and maybe there's a decline over time even for alkaline batteries. But at such a low production cost, the shelf-space is likely to be the biggest factor at point of sale. That, and the mark-up will be set at whatever the market will bear.
flexie 5y ago
Did anyone really read the title thinking that the article was about alkaline batteries? I think not. The title is not misleading. It's incomplete, as titles are by nature. Titles are not supposed to include all caveats and modifications. The title also doesn't say that the decline is measured in dollars. Probably the price has dropped much less or much more when measured in other currencies that have moved relative to the dollar. The title also doesn't mention whether it's adjusted for inflation. It also doesn't specify whether that's the price at the consumer level or the price paid by manufacturers. Whether it's when you buy the battery in America or somewhere else on the planet. As long as a title doesn't deliberately seek to mislead, it's not misleading. The intended audience expected this to be about lithium ion batteries.

FabHK 5y ago

Nice that the cost has come down. Unfortunately, that which makes electric cars and planes feasible, namely energy density (Wh/litre) and specific energy (Wh/kg), has not improved that rapidly. The article mentions a factor of 3.4 over 30 years for energy density, ie 4% p.a., or doubling every 17 years. I think electric aircraft need another doubling or two in specific energy to become feasible, so another few decades :-/

walrus01 5y ago
If one looks at the Wh/kg of the very best li ion batteries right now (about 250Wh/kg) and then compares it to the Wh/kg in avgas or jet a or diesel, it's nuts. Even if you lose 40-60% to waste heat. The amount of energy contained in those fuels is ridiculously dense by comparison.
- winter_blue 5y ago
  It looks like diesel holds ~10,700 Wh/kg[1]. That’s over 40 times the volumetric energy density. I hope people find an electrical energy storage system (ie a battery) that’s cheap, and with high mass and volumetric energy density, soon. That would be huge for solving the impending climate (and pollution) crisis. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density#In_chemical_reactions_(oxidation) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density#In_chemical_r...
  - SigmundA 5y ago
    You must account for all the equipment to convert fuel into mechanical work as well. A battery is a large part of the equipment to covert electrons into useful electricity and electric motors and controller are comparatively light weight. Energy density is still higher I have done rough calculations that say batteries need to be at about 2000 wh/kg to be at parity with a diesel semi and the theoretic upper limit for lithium is 2600 wh/kg.
- mgoetzke 5y ago
  And the energy stored in it does not need to be paid :) That is why these companies make so much money of course.

Markoff 5y ago

yet their energy density didn't grow almost at all in last decade, I don't need cheaper battery, I need battery with significantly higher density, in previous decades density was pretty much doubling every 10 years, but this stopped in 2010, then in last 10 years was density growth how much 10-20% ?

fitzie 5y ago

a more useful measure might be the trend of how much over the cost of materials does a li-ion cost. that excess cost, could be broken into the lack of automation, manufacturing inefficiencies (waste biproducts) and capital overhead. from Tesla "battery day" it is clear that reducing capital overhead was an important goal to reducing costs.