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Whatever you may think of Tesla and Musk, you have to agree that they've accomplished something rather incredible. Few would have thought this possible not tha

• ogre_codes 6y ago
  > New S, X, Roadster, Cybertruck, and Semi models on the way There is also a lot of noise around the sub $30k mystery car Musk hinted about at the battery event. He said $25k, but given Tesla’s pricing history, $28-30k is more likely.
  • ketzo 6y ago
    To be honest, given Tesla's pricing history and Musk's... claim-making history, $35k is more likely. But I can dream.
    • _ph_ 6y ago
      The Model 3 is pretty close to $35k, so while the compact car might not hit precisely $25k, it should be distinctively below $30k.
    • ogre_codes 6y ago
      Musk is bad about price promises, but $10k is a huge exaggeration, you can still get the Model 3 for $39k. The Model 3 was available to anyone who preordered it for that price and was available for around $37k for some time. You suggestion puts it around $3k below the cost of the Model 3, which begs the question of why put out a second model at all. If it’s not in the $28k or less, there really isn’t a ton of point to it.
• lumost 6y ago
  I had to look it up but for reference in Q1 2021 the big auto makers delivered the following. Ford: 521,334 GM: 642,250 Toyota: 2.46 million VW: 2.5 million If Tesla holds up they'll be larger than Ford in 2 years and be the largest automaker in the world in 4 years.
  • ping_pong 6y ago
    Tesla has already lost marketshare in almost every market so they won't be bigger than Ford in 2 years. They will likely lose their regulatory credits some time this year because VW, Audi, Porsche and Ford have strong offerings.
    • Reason077 6y ago
      How does Tesla lose market share while achieving record (+ 109%) sales? The market certainly hasn’t been growing faster than Tesla has.
      • bildung 6y ago
        Because the EV market grew much faster, e.g. +260% for Germany (from 108k in 2019 to 395k in 2020).
        • Reason077 6y ago
          Sure, but market share should be considered as a percentage of the overall car market, not just electric sales. It's unrealistic to expect that Tesla would continue to dominate the EV market forever. It is realistic to expect that Tesla will become a significant player in car sales globally.
          • bildung 6y ago
            > It's unrealistic to expect that Tesla would continue to dominate the EV market forever. It is realistic to expect that Tesla will become a significant player in car sales globally. How could Tesla become a significant player in the overall market without being much more significant in the EV market, which is a small subset of the former?
• hooande 6y ago
  i'm not trying to be snide, but it's worth noting that so much of this is fueled by government subsidies and investments into electric vehicle technology. And the current administration is looking to at least double that investment. Things are going to be great for Tesla, but what happens when the subsidies stop? In a sense, a lot of Ford's growth was fueled by government investment in new roads. Ford kept growing after the government stopped investing, and I think it will be about the same for Tesla. but I'm not sure. The subsidies are so direct and in 15 years EVs will be the rule and not the exception. Tesla seems like a great investment right now. just not sure how long it will last
  • _ph_ 6y ago
    - While government incentives (tax credits) do help electric car adoption, in the US the ran out for Tesla quite some time ago. So the current growth of Tesla in the US is not fueld by incentives. On other markets they do play an important role though. - Negative incentives (like CO2 taxes) for fossil fuel cars are going to grow. - Most importantly: battery prices are in a constant downfall. We are quicky approaching the point where electric cars are cheaper to make than fossil fuel cars. In the TCO they can be cheaper already.
  • deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  • kazen44 6y ago
    mind you ford was in a completely different situation in the early 1900's. they made an entire new mode of transportation available to the masses that cut down travel times considerably. most people commuted on foot or by train prior to the car. this massive change of transportation is not what is happening with Tesla.
  • jccooper 6y ago
    Tesla hasn't had the Federal tax credit for all of 2020. Most of the rest of their "subsidies" are local government deals, which are common to any large manufacturer. There are foreign governments that do have sales support, but domestic sales remain about half their total.
• stiray 6y ago
  (Bottom line. I am a consumer that pays money for the best product. And I will buy the best product, not the hype. I dont understand why all the downvoting, you are doing it every day when you go to a market? Do you worship John Harvey Kellogg when eating the corn flakes? Probably not.) Ok, now here is where I object. Musk hasnt done anything incredible/remarkable, YOU have done it, the STOCK INVESTORS have done it, the tesla car BUYERS have done it. Without people trusting, investing and buying the hype, this would just be another failure. But due to the hype he got enough of resources to pull it off. He is a lair, cheater, snake oil seller that was so successful in his deceit that he was actually able to pull something off. It was not him to be grateful for explosion of electric car market. YOU are. And now that the market has woke up, it is time to buy electric car. But certainly not Tesla. I want a good car not the hype while on the other side I am grateful to everyone that bought the hype and I give you all the credits for doing it. I will get a good electric car out of it. You keep the hype. aero-glide2: sure and at the end the second to the market won where the first one has created the market, shown mistakes in the product, cheated a "few" people, and allow second one to learn from them and create better product - there is absolutely nothing wrong with that. Consumers get the better product. Worshiping Musk? Irrational. I worship those that gave him the money. ryzvonusef: Nothing has changed here. I am just stating the facts. He has shown there is a market for eCars (tm) pushed others to actually start making electric cars. I am perfectly fine with that. And I will buy some car from well established company as I want quality, not words. "lair, cheater, snake oil seller" this is just a fact. Sorry, I am not into fanboyisms clouding my judgement (I also dont have anything against him - I just dont care) and I am just stating how I see the things and I think that I see them very realistic and sane.
  • aero-glide2 6y ago
    Isn't that just every Silicon Valley company? Create hype with impractical demo, raise funds, and then actually build the product. I see nothing wrong with this approach unless you are Theranos.
  • ryzvonusef 6y ago
    > Ok, now here is where I object. Musk hasnt done anything incredible/remarkable, YOU have done it, the STOCK INVESTORS have done it, the tesla car BUYERS have done it. and none of that would have happened if Musky hadn't decided to not only invest in this little startup called Tesla... but KEEP at it... he could have at anytime cut his losses, and ditched Tesla, he had more than enough on his plate with SpaceX; fame, glory, money, whatever... And yet he kept at it, year after year, for the past decade and a half, and NOW... after all this time and effort, here we are... I find it hilarious when people go out of their way to slice out Musk from any Tesla/SpaceX news item; it's OK, you can both admit his accomplishments AND still consider him a dick...
• wiz21c 6y ago
  But, don't we need less cars ? I'd be happier if Elon would actually be successful at removing cars. Why doesn't he build trains instead.
  • anonporridge 6y ago
    Why didn't they just quickly turn the titanic when they saw the ice berg?
  • paulcole 6y ago
    He builds cars because he wants to make a shitload of money and be incredibly famous. (Optimistically) you can get one or the other by building trains, but not both.
  • bertil 6y ago
    It’s easy to conflate the idea that trains need investment and that Musk is the wealthiest mad on Earth. He doesn’t have enough money or the political capital to create a meaningful rail option like, say, LA to SF at high speed. His only option are promoting much cheaper alternatives like the Boring company or (inspiring for now) Hyperloop. Even then, all those projects are far away from profitability and heavily criticised. His car business offers both a credible option to reduce ownership (with a self-driving fleet) and finances his other ideas. Overall, he’s expressed interest in fast point-to-point transport and realism about how flying would be far more expensive, energy-wise, so I’m sure that, when he has the means, he’ll look into a rail-based option.
• neximo64 6y ago
  Doesn't even still cover enough to justify its current market cap. If anything these figures are just what the market cap has already adjusted to & why the market is unimpressed by the numbers. So while it is amazing it is not 'wow'
• fshbbdssbbgdd 6y ago
  > 92 MWh of solar generation deployed in Q1, +163% versus a year ago This is a typo (should be 92 MW), but also made me think about how you could have fun metrics like MW/h rate of solar deployed or MW rate of storage deployed.
  • zeroping 6y ago
    I find it delightful to think of EV charging rates in MPH. The original Leaf tops out at around 24 MPH, while modern Tesla super chargers are 200+ MPH charge rate.
    • durkie 6y ago
      Just reached over 1000 MPH charging at a V3 supercharger last week.
  • cs702 6y ago
    Oops. Silly me. Thanks for pointing it out. Corrected.
  • ww520 6y ago
    They can always come up with statistics like 92MW x 5 hours-per-day = 460MWh/day x 365 days = 167,900MWh = 167GWh/year. You can see marketing claim of 167GWh yearly capacity coming online for last year!
    • fshbbdssbbgdd 6y ago
      The human capacity to invent never ceases to amaze!
• snoshy 6y ago
  > * Four additional gigafactories already in development Where did you see this? Best I can tell, 4 new models (Cybertruck, Roadster, Semi, Unannounced) are in development but only one more gigafactory (TBD) is in the works. Perhaps you misread things? Agree though, astounding rate of growth at this scale.
  • judge2020 6y ago
    Berlin and Texas are still under construction, with neither having produced a single delivery car yet. I think they did conflate models with factories as you suspect, though.
    • nixass 6y ago
      Berlin factory is not necessarily behind the corner. Tesla is trying to cut corners there but Germany is not Wild West to let them do whatever they want.
• habeebtc 6y ago
  I have two separate and (mostly) unrelated feelings. Musk has done something remarkable as you say. At the same time, the market cap is nuts and a portent of doom. Bigger than all car companies combined, by market cap? A market crash could take down Tesla and set back electric car adoption by 20 years.
  • legulere 6y ago
    It wouldn’t, even traditional car manufacturers like VW are massively ramping up their electric car production. They just don’t have Elon musk for PR
    • tim-- 6y ago
      Voltswagen definitely made some noise. I think the other large car manufacturers have been learning a few tricks.
    • zarkov99 6y ago
      They also do not have the technology, the software capabilities or the charging network. In fact all they have is PR right now. Their EV offering is at 5 to 8 years behind Tesla and and they are moving slower in R&D.
      • f6v 6y ago
        > the software capabilities Am I wrong or the cars were running software for at least a decade? What kind of software can’t VW develop?
        • dkirill 6y ago
          Traditional manufactures software sucks in every way possible
  • AYBABTME 6y ago
    I think the cat is out of the bag for EVs: enough people have tasted them and wouldn't go back, and enough manufacturers got into the game, that even if Tesla was to fail, enough people would be asking for it, and enough manufacturers would already be advanced enough in their plans to keep the ball rolling. Basically, Tesla's mission is 99% accomplished.
• kamilszybalski 6y ago
  They sold some of their BTC holdings right?
  • cloudking 6y ago
    Yes they sold 10%, source: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1386821144037236737 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1386821144037236737