21 ms·

I feel like the prices on electric vehicles are starting to become their biggest hurdle (instead of range, availability, or charging which are solved enough).

I feel like the prices on electric vehicles are starting to become their biggest hurdle (instead of range, availability, or charging which are solved enough). If you're from California or New York, I'm sure $40K starting for this or a Model Y seems complexly within your means, but there's a large chunk of the US (by population AND land) where <$20K new sedans remain popular and "nicer" vehicles are still in the $20-$30K range (and we're talking about SUVs and other family sized vehicles rather than small sedans). People love to spam $40K US "average" while entirely ignoring that the average is a highly abusive figure containing $80K+ trucks and luxury vehicles, as well as a few $15-32K vehicles dragging that figure down. It doesn't really reflect anything useful. Go look at this map[0]. How many of "the most popular car by state" are $40K? Zero. But yet an electric is going to replace a $21K Honda Civic by 2025? Really? And I'm not dumping on the manufacturers here: From what I understand batteries remain the lion's share of an electric vehicle's total production cost (I've heard as much as $16K/vehicle). So this isn't profiteering, this is the tech not yet being ready price-wise for the mass adoption everyone seems to believe will come soon. Worse still as electric vehicles become more popular the rare earth metals that seemingly remain popular within the batteries may increase in cost offsetting our future reductions. To be clear: I want to own an electric vehicle. I'd trade my current Subaru Outback ($27K) in tomorrow if I could buy a comparable electric. But those start in the $40K range (and honestly the cheapest trim is just a hero model, they don't intend to sell many, and blackmail buyers with missing basic features accordingly). [0] https://insurify.com/insights/most-popular-cars-by-state-2020/ https://insurify.com/insights/most-popular-cars-by-state-202...

skybrian 6y ago
Yes, very true, though prices will come down as volume goes up. We should all hope that these new models are a success and the prices drop. Though, if you're budget-conscious, why buy a new car at all? Used cars are a better deal. Leave the new cars for people with more money.
Klwohu 6y ago
The range is the issue, the "suburban and rural retards" probably have more expensive vehicles than NY and San Fran dwellers. But nobody wants a car that can't run on gas unless you live on an Interstate corridor, the 101, etc.
- ajross 6y ago
  (Not sure why you introduced that slur with scare quotes given that no one used it upthread, nor even suggested anything similar... This sounds a bit much like you're trying to pick a fight.) Almost no one, even in the US, lives legitimately far from an interstate corridor or other major infrastructure path. These EVs can absolutely be made to work in the red state exurbs. You'll find plenty of Tesla owners in those regions already. Where EVs tend to hurt most isn't with diffuse exurb commutes (where a 300 mile range does just fine!), but in long distance road trips where you have to charge more frequently and for longer periods than a gas car. And I assure you us cityfolk take just as many road trips as you red staters.
  - Klwohu 6y ago
    It strange, as you black/red flag city dwellers seem to we simple country folk to be poorer and less able to achieve land and vehicle ownership than we banjo-strumming hillbillies. Perhaps when we see you driving your little electric bug cars and living in rat shacks in this current year we get much the same impression that you do from looking at photos of the dust bowl era, still apparently the modern city person's vision of how people live outside their enclaves.
    - camjohnson26 6y ago
      You’re projecting. No one is saying that.
- kingsuper20 6y ago
  I'd say that the more general issue with rural areas is the increasing complexity of cars and the death of small car dealerships. This area lost 100% of it's dealerships during the real estate crash and I'm not sure that an independent shop can fix a new BMW (or F150).
CameronNemo 6y ago
Isn't this short term thinking? That is the upfront cost. What about the total lifetime cost of the vehicle?
- foepys 6y ago
  People buying cars for $20,000 are generally not people who can invest twice upfront for lower maintenance costs over the next ten years. Being poor (relatively speaking) is expensive, especially when you are financing.
  - dahfizz 6y ago
    Isn't this situation a bit different? You're financing your car anyway, so its "free" to finance a car that $75/mo more expensive if you spend $75/mo less in gas savings. Factor in not having to pay for maintenance and it really is cheaper month to month. This is different from the classic example of having to buy cheap, low quality boot every month for $10 instead of buying really nice boots for $200 that would last a decade. The upfront cost of the nice boots (and the insane interest rates for credit cards) make the nice boots impossible to afford. EDIT: This is besides the point, but I don't think people dropping 20k on a car are "poor" in the way we are discussing anyway. Anyone buying a brand new car obviously has some money to spend
  - Ekaros 6y ago
    Also 20k buys lot of maintenance, and gas. I wonder if at that price difference the maintenance and gas even is cheaper. Ofc, depends on driven distance, but still.
  - holoduke 6y ago
    I an in a fortunate position to earn much more than a average salary. Yet our family car is a 2005 10k infinity fx35. Car is reliable and modern enough. A perfect fit for my family of 4. I considered buying a 80k Tesla model X, but went for a 15 year old Ferrari f430 (same price). Still have the practically and a lot of extra fun. I never understood why people would buy a car younger than 15 years old.
foepys 6y ago
Not only that, there are entire continents where electric vehicles are simply not feasible. You cannot drive an EV 100km through mud and forests to get to a town just to charge it. Those EVs are not only very heavy and will sink in mud, they turn into bricks when empty. Have fun getting electricity into the jungle. A gas canister can be brought by anybody and filling the car up is quick. So most likely you will be hauling around generators - gas powered of course. These are problems I don't see discussed anywhere when car manufacturers are claiming to go full EV by 2030.
- ajross 6y ago
  To be fair: vehicle density in rural Africa or South America or wherever you're thinking of is extremely low. To first approximation all cars are in cities (because to first approximation all people are in cities), and so to first approximation all cars can be feasibly replaced with EVs. It's true there will always be edge cases best served by some other technology, but that's true about any device, not just cars.
- Already__Taken 6y ago
  How many of these places drive 2021 model cars right now?
  - imtringued 6y ago
    Probably none, and most of them can't even afford a used car with AWD. Every time I hear about Americans buying offroad cars as a status symbol I think of people in Cameroon getting stuck in the muddiest dirt roads on the planet with their Golf 3.
    - tatersolid 6y ago
      I live in Suburban Chicago. AWD and ground clearance are not “status symbols” here: there’s a thing called snow 1/3 of the year. Our last big snow storm of the season required me to pick up my in-laws and take them to the doctor. Their BMW 5-whatever sedan couldn’t even make it out of their parking garage.
ajross 6y ago
Actually the market for new sub-$20k vehicles is quite small. Most people with budget concerns buy used. The median new passenger vehicle is something like a $40k minivan or pickup. So these EVs really aren't very far off the mark financially.
- toomuchtodo 6y ago
  Indeed. These EVs will filter down to the used market over time, satiating demand from those not of means to afford a new car. It's ideal really; those who can buy new eat the depreciation, while those who can't afford new end up with a vehicle that will be able to go hundreds of thousands of miles before end of service life (perhaps with some cosmetic blemishes, but not much more of concern considering powertrain longevity). Not everyone needs a new car, many simply need a reliable car.
  - don-code 6y ago
    We sort of know what to expect with powertrain longevity on used vehicles, but I'm not sure we know the same for electric vehicles just yet. Consider: I had my last car purchase (which I knew would be used) between a BMW 4 Series, a VW Golf R, and a Subaru STI. I went with the 4 Series. The Golf R and STI are often used as track cars, and 40k miles on a Golf R may very well be the equivalent of 100k miles on a regular Golf. I admit this is a very specific use case, but there are other specific use cases (e.g. police car - probably spent 80% of its engine's life idling and not racking up miles) that we know to look for, that we simply don't know to look for in the EV market, because they haven't presented themselves yet.
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
    - ajross 6y ago
      It's really just "battery" longevity. The EV-unique part of the power train on most of these vehicles is a single-gear electric motor with one moving part. There are broadly similar devices in service today that have been working more or less unmaintained for literally a century (think elevator motors in old apartment buildings, etc...). It's pretty well travelled territory. But yes: batteries age and need to be replaced. But while that's quite expensive in materials, it's actually very feasible as a maintenance task. A 2012 Model S could have its battery swapped and no doubt drive for another decade with minimal fuss.
grecy 6y ago
Average price of new cars purchases in the USA crossed $40k for the first time in 2020 [1]. So I don't think it's that outrageous. [1] https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/average-new-car-price-2020/ https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/average-new-car-price-202...
tzs 6y ago
I'd definitely like my next car to be electric, and to be an SUV, and I don't want it to be cost much more than a fairly basic configured Honda CR-V. 2021 CR-Vs start at about $26k. My current car is a 2006 CR-V with about 80k miles on it. It's in good shape and I drive less than 1200 miles/year so should be able to stick with it it for a long time. My plan is to keep driving my CR-V until: (1) an electric SUV comparable in price and features to the then current basic CR-V becomes available and switch to that, or (2) rules change to prevent future sales of new ICE cars, in which case I'll decide if I'm OK with an electric non-SUV. If I am, I'll switch. If not, I'll buy a new ICE CR-V (or Hybrid CR-V if that is still only about 20% more expensive than the base ICE model like it is now), which should be able to last me for the rest of my life, or (3) the CR-V actually needs to be replaced, in which case I'll do the same as in #2.
- Elora 6y ago
  1200 miles/year is an atypical use case for a vehicle in the US and your options can be anything, including many older cars, and also possibly human-powered transport and/or electric-powered scooters/bikes/skateboards. We have a '12 CR-V w/ 120k miles which right now is doing standby vehicle duty, our Tesla Model 3 takes all the miles (15-20k/year).
- rsynnott 6y ago
  At 1200 miles a year, you should possibly question whether you need a car at all, tbh. Renting when you need one might work out cheaper.
rsynnott 6y ago
> but there's a large chunk of the US (by population AND land) where <$20K new sedans remain popular and "nicer" vehicles are still in the $20-$30K range A Dacia Spring seems to be generally in the 10-15k EUR range after incentives, in most countries. A Renault Zoe is about 20-25k. The US does seem underserved in terms of low-end electric cars, tho.
aaronbrethorst 6y ago
The best-selling[1] vehicle in America, the Ford F-150, had an average sale price of $47,174 in 2018[2]. I'm sure it's only gone up since. Also, the latest version of the map you shared shows the F-150 being the most popular vehicle in 18 states, none of which are California or New York: https://insurify.com/insights/most-popular-cars-in-america-2021/ https://insurify.com/insights/most-popular-cars-in-america-2... --- [1] https://www.autobytel.com/ford/f-150/car-buying-guides/why-the-ford-f-150-is-the-best-selling-vehicle-in-america-130601/ https://www.autobytel.com/ford/f-150/car-buying-guides/why-t... [2] https://www.autoweek.com/news/trucks/a32945300/ford-averages-over-100-f-150-pickups-sold-per-hour-247/ https://www.autoweek.com/news/trucks/a32945300/ford-averages...
- s0rce 6y ago
  Could most of those be base model work trucks with the average price heavily skewed by the luxury pickup market.
  - aaronbrethorst 6y ago
    According to AutoWeek, who I expect knows of what it speaks, "The most popular model [of the Ford F-150] is the SuperCrew XLT with the 302A package...That pickup, upgraded to 4X4 and the 6.5 foot bed, comes out to $50,020." https://www.autoweek.com/news/trucks/a33584476/this-is-how-you-should-spec-your-2021-ford-f-150/ https://www.autoweek.com/news/trucks/a33584476/this-is-how-y...
    - sjg007 6y ago
      Need to seat 4 and the dog plus tow the boat or camper. Also the bed is good for Home Depot runs.
- foepys 6y ago
  This shouldn't surprise anybody. Those are used for work like farms and are tax deductible.
  - 6y ago
fassssst 6y ago
Yea, I had a ID.4 pre-ordered but canceled it after I realized how absurd the price is. I bought a utility e-bike instead and that was probably one of the best decisions I’ve ever made. I barely use my car anymore and biking is way more fun and greener than any car.
- Koshkin 6y ago
  Yeah, California is one of the very few places on Earth where you can do that.
  - Tepix 6y ago
    and many places in Europe, Asia, ...
  - mikestew 6y ago
    Do what? Use a bicycle for tasks many use a car for? If my guess is correct, I have to ask why you think California is unique in that respect given the absolutely huge set of data to the contrary? I mean, you have heard of the Netherlands, right? Of course, if my guess is wrong, ignore me. And be more clear next time. :-)
    - Armisael16 6y ago
      Literally every other person responding figured out that they were talking about weather, so I don’t think they had issues with clarity.
  - RamRodification 6y ago
    I think you are being a bit overly negative but you do have a point. Where I live (northern Europe) I could never get by with any kind of "open" vehicle (i need a roof and heating) and snow tyres.
    - Hamuko 6y ago
      You can get snow tyres fitted on a bicycle (I had some as a youth) but bicycles are still quite horrible in the winter. I remember biking home from school during the winter when it was snowing heavily. The sidewalks were completely snowed in with heavy snow so the bike just really went where it wanted to go and very slowly. I eventually decided to move over to the road but I was soon tailgated by a bus. Since the bus was honking at me, I had to pull over to the next bus stop to get him out of my ass. I think it was about at that moment that I decided to ditch winter biking once I could own a car.
cjblomqvist 6y ago
The "problem" in the US is the cheap gas, at least compared to EU. Taxing gas according to the CO2 cost would make it drastically different in TCO.
- akomtu 6y ago
  Half of the US population lives paycheck to paycheck and they need cars. I'm not sure their minimum wage can afford them carbon taxes.
  - wayanon 6y ago
    It’s weird because I associate car ownership with wealth! I’m in my 40s in London in the UK earning an ok salary and neither me nor many of many friends have a car.
    - 5etho 6y ago
      yet in rular Poland, only rich people (or disabled, elderly, wihout driver license, who have no other choice) can live comfortably without car
    - philk10 6y ago
      London has the Tube and buses and bike lanes - try living in the US without a car... ( ex-pat Brit now in the US)
    - theshrike79 6y ago
      In the US people may be homeless, but they'll still have a car. It's THAT essential to living...
    - holtalanm 6y ago
      where I live, having reliable transportation (i.e. owning a car) is pretty much a job requirement wherever you work. a lot of people don't exactly understand just how _sprawling_ the US is.
    - throwaway1777 6y ago
kajecounterhack 6y ago
New prices are quite prohibitive but the state of things actually isn't the worst for used EVs if you can stomach low range. My family does a two-car approach: 1. Hybrid SUV for actually getting places and moving things 2. ~$4k a used 2013 Smart car. ~45 mile range is good enough for short commute, grocery runs, etc. Charge at home or at work (we have the uncommon situation of no charging at home since we live in a condo complex, and free charging at work). $4k is like the price of a nice electric bike. We didn't do any maintenance to the car for 3 years (we probably should replace the brake pads). It's working just fine and is an incredible workhorse for the price.
- cblconfederate 6y ago
  This is probably going to be the most common combination. EVs really shouldn't be cars, they can have so many form factors to fit every lifestyle. For long travel or nature, EVs are overkill
- usaphp 6y ago
  $4k for a 2013 smart? You got some amazing deal, they usually sell for twice that amount. Hard to find any decent one for less than $7-8k
  - cptskippy 6y ago
    For $7-8K you can get a Nissan Leaf in excellent condition with a 75-100mi range.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - 0_____0 6y ago
    I think the difference with cars is that manufacturers make many more of them. Building bikes is still a very manual process with a lot of human touch, but waaaaay more options available. You see something similar with mountain bikes vs. dirtbikes. How can I get a 300lb machine with full suspension and an entire combustion engine for $3k and an FS MTB, with a fraction of the parts costs the same or more? Well, Honda probably make 50k CRF250s a year or something, and Norco make maybe 1/20th the number for any particular product line?
gaoshan 6y ago
The Volkswagon ID.4 will be, after the $7,500 credit, in the low 30's. Still not cheap but much better than any other similarly spec'ed vehicle.
- brianwawok 6y ago
  And consider it saving 10k in gas over 5-6 years, it's pretty close to Honda Civic price parity. Maybe not 100% there, but getting close!
  - mavhc 6y ago
    If USA would actually tax fossil fuels properly then you'd be saving twice as much
evo_9 6y ago
Comparable to a Subaru Outback in what way? Maybe take a look at a 2-3 year old BMW i3; that's what I bought for ~$18k US with only 6k miles on it. They're BEV with a range of only ~130miles which is pretty much all I need for local commuting; longer trips we rent a gas SUV, or at least that's the plan when our 3 month old is older.
CuriousSkeptic 6y ago
I’m not sure the larger batteries are even necessary. With an EV you can start each day fully charged. You just need enough battery to handle your daily commute and the few errands. What’s missing is something to handle those few occasions when you need to drive that extra distance. It seems kind of silly to try and cram that extra flexibility into the same vehicle.
- outworlder 6y ago
  > I’m not sure the larger batteries are even necessary. They are not. What's needed is expansion of the infrastructure. And that's not even about quick chargers. In cities you don't need them. What you need is standard level 2 chargers wherever you may want to go. Work, school, shopping, movie theaters, whatever. Most vehicles spend most of their day parked somewhere. They should be charging then. Larger batteries are only really going to be needed in very remote regions.
  - elihu 6y ago
    Big batteries would be nice for long trips. I'm working on an EV conversion right now that ought to get me a hundred miles of range when I'm done, which is good enough for about 98% of my regular driving. (Getting more range with a conversion can be tricky, as it would mean adding a lot of weight to the vehicle.) Sometimes it's nice to go to the beach, though... 100 miles would get me to the beach, but it's not enough get back. Most of the places I'd want to park my car for a day at the beach don't have chargers. And quick charging isn't going to be an option. I hope eventually we get to point where we start adding electrification to major highways, so that vehicles don't even have to stop to charge. Then range will be much less of an issue.
    - ratsforhorses 6y ago
      Congrats on the conversion...it should be done more, just a thought .... would a portable EV charger be the solution? just a quick google let me find Blink Mobile EV charging station...but maybe there are cheaper/smaller/lighter solutions....or solar panels on your roof?
elihu 6y ago
> Worse still as electric vehicles become more popular the rare earth metals that seemingly remain popular within the batteries may increase in cost offsetting our future reductions. That's one reason I'm hoping that we start seeing more lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cells in mid-range cars, as they don't require nickel or cobalt. (They still require lithium, which is starting to approach where nickel and cobalt prices per ton are, but I'd rather deal with one bottleneck resource mostly mined in Australia versus 3 bottleneck resources, one of which is primarily sourced from Congo.)
- emkoemko 6y ago
  here in Alberta e3 is building a project to direct extract lithium from old oil wells, way cheeper,cleaner and ethical
anticristi 6y ago
This. I made a business case for keeping my old car or buying a similarly-sized electric one. No matter how high the downtime cost, my old beaten up car wins financially. Feels like electric cars are still designed to "signal greenness" and not actually save the planet.
- CalChris 6y ago
  That’s true for any car, regardless whether the new car is an EV or not.
Phenomenit 6y ago
>and blackmail buyers with missing basic features accordingly It's what VW does best! Remember that the first car looked like horse wagon and did for quite a while. The same can be said about the infrastructure as well.
cptskippy 6y ago
> But yet an electric is going to replace a $21K Honda Civic by 2025? What's the average selling price of a Civic? With options the Civic can sell for over $35k.
- sib 6y ago
  Edmunds.com shows the MSRP range for a 2021 Civic ranges from $21,050 - $28,100.
  - cptskippy 6y ago
    Go price one on Honda.com. I got my upper by kitting out a Touring Edition with options.
dreamcompiler 6y ago
> From what I understand batteries remain the lion's share of an electric vehicle's total production cost (I've heard as much as $16K/vehicle). I've seen this same figure for current EVs. But it's important to look at the trend. Lithium-ion battery prices have decreased by 97% since their introduction in 1991. The price decrease curve is amazing [0]. Teslas were at least $80K in 2015; today a Tesla with similar range (Model 3) can be had for $40K. That decrease is largely the result of Tesla and Panasonic improving battery energy density and battery production economies of scale. There is every reason to believe this trend will continue, especially if solid-state batteries can be scaled up. As for rare-earth metals, cobalt is the worst one w.r.t. rarity and human labor. Tesla's next generation of batteries (starting in late 2021) eliminate cobalt and substitute nickel and manganese, which are far more plentiful and don't require child labor. Not trying to sanctify Tesla here; I just follow them more closely than other battery manufacturers. The others are probably working toward similar goals. https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2021/EE/D0EE02681F https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2021/EE/D0EE0...
- clouddrover 6y ago
  Lithium sulfur batteries are also interesting. They're cheaper, lighter, and the cells don't use cobalt, manganese, or nickel. The problem to date has been poor cycle life but people are working on it: - https://oxisenergy.com/technology/ https://oxisenergy.com/technology/ - https://oxisenergy.com/wp-content-uploads-2020-11-press-release-nov-2020-final-pdf-2/ https://oxisenergy.com/wp-content-uploads-2020-11-press-rele... - https://theconversation.com/batteries-made-with-sulfur-could-be-cheaper-greener-and-hold-more-energy-129135 https://theconversation.com/batteries-made-with-sulfur-could... - https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/1/eaay2757 https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/1/eaay2757
- runeks 6y ago
  Here’s the chart of interest: https://img.electronicdesign.com/files/base/ebm/electronicdesign/image/2021/04/210334_NewsMod_MIT_LiIon_Price_Drop1.60746b781680d.png https://img.electronicdesign.com/files/base/ebm/electronicde...
- panabee 6y ago
blake1 6y ago
Batteries are quite likely to continue to decrease.[1] Most industrial processes follow a learning curve inverse to the cumulative units produced. And it makes sense: each efficiency improvement has a fixed cost, and only gets made if enough units get shipped. Estimates I have seen are that LI is on a 13% annual decrease, which means that your $16k pack will be $4.5k by 2030. By then, I would bet that the Honda Civic EV is cheaper than the Honda Civic ICE. In addition to the batter, there are fewer moving parts and simpler assembly, which means less labor; this type of manufacturing has barely started to scale up. Not guaranteed, but my estimates might turn out to be conservative. And as for rare earths: as demand increases, it becomes increasingly profitable to extract marginal deposits. That's what fracking is, after all. [1] https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/20/5276/pdf https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/20/5276/pdf
brigade 6y ago
That link must include new registrations for used cars, and exclude trucks. After all, the Focus was discontinued in 2019. All the manufacturers report new US car sales, and except for the RAV4, in 2019 the cars on the list were outsold within their their own brand by cars not on the list. For instance, the Nissan sold 209k Altimas in 2019 to 350k Rogues, or Honda sold 267k Accords and 325k Civics to 384k CR-Vs, or Chevy sold 132k Malibus and 45k Impalas to 575k Silverados, or Ford sold a mere 12k Focuses to 898k F-series (don't see a further breakdown...)
mullingitover 6y ago
> If you're from California or New York, I'm sure $40K starting for this or a Model Y seems complexly within your means Not for regular working class people, far from it. A car that costs more than your gross annual wages isn't anywhere close to being within your means. Los Angeles median income in 2019: 28,072 USD NYC: 32,320 USD Nearly half of Los Angeles residents pay more than 50% of their income on rent[1]. In NYC, 42% of renters pay over 30% of their income on rent, 23% pay more than 50% of their income.[2] [1] https://news.usc.edu/179928/los-angeles-rent-burdened-households-basic-needs-usc-research/#:~:text=Three%20out%20of%20four%20Los,income%20on%20rent%20and%20utilities https://news.usc.edu/179928/los-angeles-rent-burdened-househ.... [2] https://wherewelive.cityofnewyork.us/explore-data/housing-conditions/#:~:text=Forty%20four%20percent%20of%20renter,among%20adult%20families%20(18%25) https://wherewelive.cityofnewyork.us/explore-data/housing-co....
- stefan_ 6y ago
  That's true, but then Americans also famously pay much more than they can afford on car loans for cars that they don't need.
  - kfarr 6y ago
    Exactly. All this hullabaloo about the f150 being too expensive for the average american is ignoring the fact that the average american is in debt up to their eyeballs.
- tooltalk 6y ago
  hate to nitpick, but NYC's median household income is ~$58K -- nearly double the figure you cited.
canadianfella 6y ago
Abusive?
jhgb 6y ago
> Worse still as electric vehicles become more popular the rare earth metals that seemingly remain popular within the batteries may increase in cost offsetting our future reductions. Rare earths are only used in NiMH batteries. Some hybrids have those, but probably not this vehicle.
kbenson 6y ago
> If you're from California or New York, I'm sure $40K starting for this or a Model Y seems complexly within your means Keep in mind that being in CA also means quite a bit of your income goes to housing for a lot of people. It's pretty common to be house poor in California. I know I'm sure not looking to add more than absolutely necessary to my monthly payments.
scythe 6y ago
>rare earth metals that seemingly remain popular within the batteries To clarify: rare-earths are required for the magnets in EV motors. Cobalt is rare, but not a rare-earth, and is used in the batteries. The supply of lithium and nickel may affect prices at high production volumes (widespread adoption) but is not currently a significant factor. Replacements for cobalt in batteries are the object of recent research; replacements for rare-earth metals in magnets have been sought for decades, with Fe16N2 and AlMn leading the pack at a treacle-esque trickle.
- jhgb 6y ago
  > To clarify: rare-earths are required for the magnets in EV motors. Not necessarily; they're just convenient, but not strictly required. Model S vehicles use induction motors and they seem to work just fine.
kleiba 6y ago
range, availability, or charging which are solved enough But are they really? Especially for charging, I'm still not convinced. The articles makes a case that you can go and grab a coffee while your ID.4 charges in 30 minutes at a high-speed charging stations. Sorry, but "30 minutes" and "high-speed" in one sentence seems somewhat misplaced. Who can afford to just waste 30 minutes for charging on a regular basis? I currently live in a suburb in central Europe. I just checked on https://chargemap.com/ https://chargemap.com/ for my area - I don't know how up-to-date their map is but there are only a few charging stations within 20 minutes from my house, none of which is a high-speed charging station. And unlike houses in North America, almost none of the houses on my street has a drive way, i.e., me and most of my neighbors park on the road, sometimes a few houses down from mine - so, no chance for charging a car over night at home. Of course, before I moved to the burbs, I sometimes had to park a few streets away at night because apartment buildings here typically don't offer parking garages (they exist, but it's not common). Unlike some people with strong opinions, I'm actually in favor of electric cars. However, the practicability is just not there for the way a lot of everyday life is currently organized in many parts of the world.
- Brakenshire 6y ago
  It’s solved for people with driveways.
  - AmericanChopper 6y ago
    I have a drive way, and it’s not solved for me. My driving needs would require me to be frequently filling up at charging stations. These kind of “it’s solved” statements are very much picking the facts to fit the conclusion, rather than the other way around. Pointing this out usually elicits a “well you should change your lifestyle to better suit the features of an electric car”. If you tried to say that about software features most of us would intuitively know how dumb it is, but it’s supposedly a much more reasonable argument when made about transport.
    - csomar 6y ago
      > My driving needs would require me to be frequently filling up at charging stations. I don't think $40k electric cars (or even the long-range Tesla models) are for people who use cars for work and require frequent/long distances. This is more for the guy who does 15-30km/day commute, then maybe few km to the mall and has a driveway in his house. Maybe once in a while does 100km trip to some mountain. Best you can do for now is a hybrid.
argonaut 6y ago
The ID4 is precisely the next step EVs need towards affordability. The base ID4 will cost $33,690 after federal tax credit (and after destination fee). A top trim 2021 Subaru Forester costs about $32-34k (MSRP is $36k, this is the price after dealer discounting according to KBB). Still not quite as affordable considering we're talking about a top trim Subaru, but definitely getting close. And after state rebates / if someone factors in gas costs, the ID4 can come out ahead.
sngz 6y ago
their biggest hurdle apparently is inability to design EV's that don't look ridiculous and not a crossover/SUV. Many people I know would be getting one by now if they can just come out with something that looks like a normal car like the model 3 performance but doesn't have Tesla's poor quality control and customer service.
URSpider94 6y ago
Keep in mind that the $40k price is eligible for a $7500 federal tax credit, plus in CA you’ll get a $1500 instant rebate at purchase from a utility company fund, plus any middle class buyer will get a $2500 (I think) state rebate. That takes the net price down to under $30k.
erikstarck 6y ago
Total cost of ownership makes the electric car much more competitive than simply just looking at the price at purchase.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
paganel 6y ago
This electric car "revolution" is also a very good way to keep the poor people firmly in their place, at least here in Europe. As a low-income single-mom you might have used to drive your kid to a better school in a 15-year old 1.2 Opel Corsa while living just outside Paris, where rents are cheaper and the social environment is better (i.e. no gangs) Tough lock, that's hardly allowed anymore. It doesn't matter if that means that your kid you'll have to attend a worst school or that you'll have to move closer to the city (and to the gangs) in order to get some chance at public transportation, that car is a threat to society. Also, gently look away while the government fills the pockets of middle-class people with thousands of euros (even more) representing electric-car "subsidies".
JohnJamesRambo 6y ago
I used to think a Tesla was beyond my reach completely but then I started doing the math on how much gas I was buying per month with a regular car, how much I was spending on repairs and oil changes etc. All my time working on the cars. Driving old run down pieces of crap until the inevitable head gasket failure that costs more than the vehicle is worth to fix. I said enough is enough I’ll get a damn car without a head gasket! I live in a state with some of the cheapest electricity in the USA, the Tesla Model 3 is almost free for me to drive and I can charge in off-peak times for truly mind blowing MPGe values. I also hadn’t thought about how the car retains its value. My gas cars depreciate rapidly. My brand new Tesla cost 40k when all is said and done and used Teslas several years old were going for 38,500 or so. The test drive of the Tesla sold my girlfriend and I on it completely. It was the first car I’ve ever driven that felt like what the future should and could be like. http://chooseev.com/savings-calculator/ http://chooseev.com/savings-calculator/
Reason077 6y ago
> "as electric vehicles become more popular the rare earth metals that seemingly remain popular within the batteries may increase in cost" This is a myth. Lithium ion battery cells do not typically contain any rare earth metals. Permanent magnet motors in EVs do contain rare earths (such as neodymium). As do the catalytic converters in combustion vehicles.
Blumfid 6y ago
We are at the beginning of ev and you already can buy them at affordable prices just not yet in every category. Give it time. Right now a ton of money gets invested into batteries and co. When you look how much impact proper market penetration is for prices (see smartphones, solar energy etc.) It will come and fast.

skybrian 6y ago

Yes, very true, though prices will come down as volume goes up. We should all hope that these new models are a success and the prices drop. Though, if you're budget-conscious, why buy a new car at all? Used cars are a better deal. Leave the new cars for people with more money.

Klwohu 6y ago

The range is the issue, the "suburban and rural retards" probably have more expensive vehicles than NY and San Fran dwellers. But nobody wants a car that can't run on gas unless you live on an Interstate corridor, the 101, etc.

ajross 6y ago
(Not sure why you introduced that slur with scare quotes given that no one used it upthread, nor even suggested anything similar... This sounds a bit much like you're trying to pick a fight.) Almost no one, even in the US, lives legitimately far from an interstate corridor or other major infrastructure path. These EVs can absolutely be made to work in the red state exurbs. You'll find plenty of Tesla owners in those regions already. Where EVs tend to hurt most isn't with diffuse exurb commutes (where a 300 mile range does just fine!), but in long distance road trips where you have to charge more frequently and for longer periods than a gas car. And I assure you us cityfolk take just as many road trips as you red staters.
- Klwohu 6y ago
  It strange, as you black/red flag city dwellers seem to we simple country folk to be poorer and less able to achieve land and vehicle ownership than we banjo-strumming hillbillies. Perhaps when we see you driving your little electric bug cars and living in rat shacks in this current year we get much the same impression that you do from looking at photos of the dust bowl era, still apparently the modern city person's vision of how people live outside their enclaves.
  - camjohnson26 6y ago
    You’re projecting. No one is saying that.
kingsuper20 6y ago
I'd say that the more general issue with rural areas is the increasing complexity of cars and the death of small car dealerships. This area lost 100% of it's dealerships during the real estate crash and I'm not sure that an independent shop can fix a new BMW (or F150).

CameronNemo 6y ago

Isn't this short term thinking? That is the upfront cost. What about the total lifetime cost of the vehicle?

foepys 6y ago
People buying cars for $20,000 are generally not people who can invest twice upfront for lower maintenance costs over the next ten years. Being poor (relatively speaking) is expensive, especially when you are financing.
- dahfizz 6y ago
  Isn't this situation a bit different? You're financing your car anyway, so its "free" to finance a car that $75/mo more expensive if you spend $75/mo less in gas savings. Factor in not having to pay for maintenance and it really is cheaper month to month. This is different from the classic example of having to buy cheap, low quality boot every month for $10 instead of buying really nice boots for $200 that would last a decade. The upfront cost of the nice boots (and the insane interest rates for credit cards) make the nice boots impossible to afford. EDIT: This is besides the point, but I don't think people dropping 20k on a car are "poor" in the way we are discussing anyway. Anyone buying a brand new car obviously has some money to spend
- Ekaros 6y ago
  Also 20k buys lot of maintenance, and gas. I wonder if at that price difference the maintenance and gas even is cheaper. Ofc, depends on driven distance, but still.
- holoduke 6y ago
  I an in a fortunate position to earn much more than a average salary. Yet our family car is a 2005 10k infinity fx35. Car is reliable and modern enough. A perfect fit for my family of 4. I considered buying a 80k Tesla model X, but went for a 15 year old Ferrari f430 (same price). Still have the practically and a lot of extra fun. I never understood why people would buy a car younger than 15 years old.

foepys 6y ago

Not only that, there are entire continents where electric vehicles are simply not feasible. You cannot drive an EV 100km through mud and forests to get to a town just to charge it. Those EVs are not only very heavy and will sink in mud, they turn into bricks when empty. Have fun getting electricity into the jungle. A gas canister can be brought by anybody and filling the car up is quick. So most likely you will be hauling around generators - gas powered of course. These are problems I don't see discussed anywhere when car manufacturers are claiming to go full EV by 2030.

ajross 6y ago
To be fair: vehicle density in rural Africa or South America or wherever you're thinking of is extremely low. To first approximation all cars are in cities (because to first approximation all people are in cities), and so to first approximation all cars can be feasibly replaced with EVs. It's true there will always be edge cases best served by some other technology, but that's true about any device, not just cars.
Already__Taken 6y ago
How many of these places drive 2021 model cars right now?
- imtringued 6y ago
  Probably none, and most of them can't even afford a used car with AWD. Every time I hear about Americans buying offroad cars as a status symbol I think of people in Cameroon getting stuck in the muddiest dirt roads on the planet with their Golf 3.
  - tatersolid 6y ago
    I live in Suburban Chicago. AWD and ground clearance are not “status symbols” here: there’s a thing called snow 1/3 of the year. Our last big snow storm of the season required me to pick up my in-laws and take them to the doctor. Their BMW 5-whatever sedan couldn’t even make it out of their parking garage.

ajross 6y ago

Actually the market for new sub-$20k vehicles is quite small. Most people with budget concerns buy used. The median new passenger vehicle is something like a $40k minivan or pickup. So these EVs really aren't very far off the mark financially.

toomuchtodo 6y ago
Indeed. These EVs will filter down to the used market over time, satiating demand from those not of means to afford a new car. It's ideal really; those who can buy new eat the depreciation, while those who can't afford new end up with a vehicle that will be able to go hundreds of thousands of miles before end of service life (perhaps with some cosmetic blemishes, but not much more of concern considering powertrain longevity). Not everyone needs a new car, many simply need a reliable car.
- don-code 6y ago
  We sort of know what to expect with powertrain longevity on used vehicles, but I'm not sure we know the same for electric vehicles just yet. Consider: I had my last car purchase (which I knew would be used) between a BMW 4 Series, a VW Golf R, and a Subaru STI. I went with the 4 Series. The Golf R and STI are often used as track cars, and 40k miles on a Golf R may very well be the equivalent of 100k miles on a regular Golf. I admit this is a very specific use case, but there are other specific use cases (e.g. police car - probably spent 80% of its engine's life idling and not racking up miles) that we know to look for, that we simply don't know to look for in the EV market, because they haven't presented themselves yet.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - ajross 6y ago
    It's really just "battery" longevity. The EV-unique part of the power train on most of these vehicles is a single-gear electric motor with one moving part. There are broadly similar devices in service today that have been working more or less unmaintained for literally a century (think elevator motors in old apartment buildings, etc...). It's pretty well travelled territory. But yes: batteries age and need to be replaced. But while that's quite expensive in materials, it's actually very feasible as a maintenance task. A 2012 Model S could have its battery swapped and no doubt drive for another decade with minimal fuss.

grecy 6y ago

Average price of new cars purchases in the USA crossed $40k for the first time in 2020 [1]. So I don't think it's that outrageous. [1] https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/average-new-car-price-2020/ https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/average-new-car-price-202...

tzs 6y ago

I'd definitely like my next car to be electric, and to be an SUV, and I don't want it to be cost much more than a fairly basic configured Honda CR-V. 2021 CR-Vs start at about $26k. My current car is a 2006 CR-V with about 80k miles on it. It's in good shape and I drive less than 1200 miles/year so should be able to stick with it it for a long time. My plan is to keep driving my CR-V until: (1) an electric SUV comparable in price and features to the then current basic CR-V becomes available and switch to that, or (2) rules change to prevent future sales of new ICE cars, in which case I'll decide if I'm OK with an electric non-SUV. If I am, I'll switch. If not, I'll buy a new ICE CR-V (or Hybrid CR-V if that is still only about 20% more expensive than the base ICE model like it is now), which should be able to last me for the rest of my life, or (3) the CR-V actually needs to be replaced, in which case I'll do the same as in #2.

Elora 6y ago
1200 miles/year is an atypical use case for a vehicle in the US and your options can be anything, including many older cars, and also possibly human-powered transport and/or electric-powered scooters/bikes/skateboards. We have a '12 CR-V w/ 120k miles which right now is doing standby vehicle duty, our Tesla Model 3 takes all the miles (15-20k/year).
rsynnott 6y ago
At 1200 miles a year, you should possibly question whether you need a car at all, tbh. Renting when you need one might work out cheaper.

rsynnott 6y ago

> but there's a large chunk of the US (by population AND land) where <$20K new sedans remain popular and "nicer" vehicles are still in the $20-$30K range A Dacia Spring seems to be generally in the 10-15k EUR range after incentives, in most countries. A Renault Zoe is about 20-25k. The US does seem underserved in terms of low-end electric cars, tho.

aaronbrethorst 6y ago

The best-selling[1] vehicle in America, the Ford F-150, had an average sale price of $47,174 in 2018[2]. I'm sure it's only gone up since. Also, the latest version of the map you shared shows the F-150 being the most popular vehicle in 18 states, none of which are California or New York: https://insurify.com/insights/most-popular-cars-in-america-2021/ https://insurify.com/insights/most-popular-cars-in-america-2... --- [1] https://www.autobytel.com/ford/f-150/car-buying-guides/why-the-ford-f-150-is-the-best-selling-vehicle-in-america-130601/ https://www.autobytel.com/ford/f-150/car-buying-guides/why-t... [2] https://www.autoweek.com/news/trucks/a32945300/ford-averages-over-100-f-150-pickups-sold-per-hour-247/ https://www.autoweek.com/news/trucks/a32945300/ford-averages...

s0rce 6y ago
Could most of those be base model work trucks with the average price heavily skewed by the luxury pickup market.
- aaronbrethorst 6y ago
  According to AutoWeek, who I expect knows of what it speaks, "The most popular model [of the Ford F-150] is the SuperCrew XLT with the 302A package...That pickup, upgraded to 4X4 and the 6.5 foot bed, comes out to $50,020." https://www.autoweek.com/news/trucks/a33584476/this-is-how-you-should-spec-your-2021-ford-f-150/ https://www.autoweek.com/news/trucks/a33584476/this-is-how-y...
  - sjg007 6y ago
    Need to seat 4 and the dog plus tow the boat or camper. Also the bed is good for Home Depot runs.
foepys 6y ago
This shouldn't surprise anybody. Those are used for work like farms and are tax deductible.
- 6y ago

fassssst 6y ago

Yea, I had a ID.4 pre-ordered but canceled it after I realized how absurd the price is. I bought a utility e-bike instead and that was probably one of the best decisions I’ve ever made. I barely use my car anymore and biking is way more fun and greener than any car.

Koshkin 6y ago
Yeah, California is one of the very few places on Earth where you can do that.
- Tepix 6y ago
  and many places in Europe, Asia, ...
- mikestew 6y ago
  Do what? Use a bicycle for tasks many use a car for? If my guess is correct, I have to ask why you think California is unique in that respect given the absolutely huge set of data to the contrary? I mean, you have heard of the Netherlands, right? Of course, if my guess is wrong, ignore me. And be more clear next time. :-)
  - Armisael16 6y ago
    Literally every other person responding figured out that they were talking about weather, so I don’t think they had issues with clarity.
- RamRodification 6y ago
  I think you are being a bit overly negative but you do have a point. Where I live (northern Europe) I could never get by with any kind of "open" vehicle (i need a roof and heating) and snow tyres.
  - Hamuko 6y ago
    You can get snow tyres fitted on a bicycle (I had some as a youth) but bicycles are still quite horrible in the winter. I remember biking home from school during the winter when it was snowing heavily. The sidewalks were completely snowed in with heavy snow so the bike just really went where it wanted to go and very slowly. I eventually decided to move over to the road but I was soon tailgated by a bus. Since the bus was honking at me, I had to pull over to the next bus stop to get him out of my ass. I think it was about at that moment that I decided to ditch winter biking once I could own a car.

cjblomqvist 6y ago

The "problem" in the US is the cheap gas, at least compared to EU. Taxing gas according to the CO2 cost would make it drastically different in TCO.

akomtu 6y ago
Half of the US population lives paycheck to paycheck and they need cars. I'm not sure their minimum wage can afford them carbon taxes.
- wayanon 6y ago
  It’s weird because I associate car ownership with wealth! I’m in my 40s in London in the UK earning an ok salary and neither me nor many of many friends have a car.
  - 5etho 6y ago
    yet in rular Poland, only rich people (or disabled, elderly, wihout driver license, who have no other choice) can live comfortably without car
  - philk10 6y ago
    London has the Tube and buses and bike lanes - try living in the US without a car... ( ex-pat Brit now in the US)
  - theshrike79 6y ago
    In the US people may be homeless, but they'll still have a car. It's THAT essential to living...
  - holtalanm 6y ago
    where I live, having reliable transportation (i.e. owning a car) is pretty much a job requirement wherever you work. a lot of people don't exactly understand just how _sprawling_ the US is.
  - throwaway1777 6y ago

kajecounterhack 6y ago

New prices are quite prohibitive but the state of things actually isn't the worst for used EVs if you can stomach low range. My family does a two-car approach: 1. Hybrid SUV for actually getting places and moving things 2. ~$4k a used 2013 Smart car. ~45 mile range is good enough for short commute, grocery runs, etc. Charge at home or at work (we have the uncommon situation of no charging at home since we live in a condo complex, and free charging at work). $4k is like the price of a nice electric bike. We didn't do any maintenance to the car for 3 years (we probably should replace the brake pads). It's working just fine and is an incredible workhorse for the price.

cblconfederate 6y ago
This is probably going to be the most common combination. EVs really shouldn't be cars, they can have so many form factors to fit every lifestyle. For long travel or nature, EVs are overkill
usaphp 6y ago
$4k for a 2013 smart? You got some amazing deal, they usually sell for twice that amount. Hard to find any decent one for less than $7-8k
- cptskippy 6y ago
  For $7-8K you can get a Nissan Leaf in excellent condition with a 75-100mi range.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- 0_____0 6y ago
  I think the difference with cars is that manufacturers make many more of them. Building bikes is still a very manual process with a lot of human touch, but waaaaay more options available. You see something similar with mountain bikes vs. dirtbikes. How can I get a 300lb machine with full suspension and an entire combustion engine for $3k and an FS MTB, with a fraction of the parts costs the same or more? Well, Honda probably make 50k CRF250s a year or something, and Norco make maybe 1/20th the number for any particular product line?

gaoshan 6y ago

The Volkswagon ID.4 will be, after the $7,500 credit, in the low 30's. Still not cheap but much better than any other similarly spec'ed vehicle.

brianwawok 6y ago
And consider it saving 10k in gas over 5-6 years, it's pretty close to Honda Civic price parity. Maybe not 100% there, but getting close!
- mavhc 6y ago
  If USA would actually tax fossil fuels properly then you'd be saving twice as much

evo_9 6y ago

Comparable to a Subaru Outback in what way? Maybe take a look at a 2-3 year old BMW i3; that's what I bought for ~$18k US with only 6k miles on it. They're BEV with a range of only ~130miles which is pretty much all I need for local commuting; longer trips we rent a gas SUV, or at least that's the plan when our 3 month old is older.

CuriousSkeptic 6y ago

I’m not sure the larger batteries are even necessary. With an EV you can start each day fully charged. You just need enough battery to handle your daily commute and the few errands. What’s missing is something to handle those few occasions when you need to drive that extra distance. It seems kind of silly to try and cram that extra flexibility into the same vehicle.

outworlder 6y ago
> I’m not sure the larger batteries are even necessary. They are not. What's needed is expansion of the infrastructure. And that's not even about quick chargers. In cities you don't need them. What you need is standard level 2 chargers wherever you may want to go. Work, school, shopping, movie theaters, whatever. Most vehicles spend most of their day parked somewhere. They should be charging then. Larger batteries are only really going to be needed in very remote regions.
- elihu 6y ago
  Big batteries would be nice for long trips. I'm working on an EV conversion right now that ought to get me a hundred miles of range when I'm done, which is good enough for about 98% of my regular driving. (Getting more range with a conversion can be tricky, as it would mean adding a lot of weight to the vehicle.) Sometimes it's nice to go to the beach, though... 100 miles would get me to the beach, but it's not enough get back. Most of the places I'd want to park my car for a day at the beach don't have chargers. And quick charging isn't going to be an option. I hope eventually we get to point where we start adding electrification to major highways, so that vehicles don't even have to stop to charge. Then range will be much less of an issue.
  - ratsforhorses 6y ago
    Congrats on the conversion...it should be done more, just a thought .... would a portable EV charger be the solution? just a quick google let me find Blink Mobile EV charging station...but maybe there are cheaper/smaller/lighter solutions....or solar panels on your roof?

elihu 6y ago

> Worse still as electric vehicles become more popular the rare earth metals that seemingly remain popular within the batteries may increase in cost offsetting our future reductions. That's one reason I'm hoping that we start seeing more lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cells in mid-range cars, as they don't require nickel or cobalt. (They still require lithium, which is starting to approach where nickel and cobalt prices per ton are, but I'd rather deal with one bottleneck resource mostly mined in Australia versus 3 bottleneck resources, one of which is primarily sourced from Congo.)

emkoemko 6y ago
here in Alberta e3 is building a project to direct extract lithium from old oil wells, way cheeper,cleaner and ethical

anticristi 6y ago

This. I made a business case for keeping my old car or buying a similarly-sized electric one. No matter how high the downtime cost, my old beaten up car wins financially. Feels like electric cars are still designed to "signal greenness" and not actually save the planet.

CalChris 6y ago
That’s true for any car, regardless whether the new car is an EV or not.

Phenomenit 6y ago

>and blackmail buyers with missing basic features accordingly It's what VW does best! Remember that the first car looked like horse wagon and did for quite a while. The same can be said about the infrastructure as well.

cptskippy 6y ago

> But yet an electric is going to replace a $21K Honda Civic by 2025? What's the average selling price of a Civic? With options the Civic can sell for over $35k.

sib 6y ago
Edmunds.com shows the MSRP range for a 2021 Civic ranges from $21,050 - $28,100.
- cptskippy 6y ago
  Go price one on Honda.com. I got my upper by kitting out a Touring Edition with options.

dreamcompiler 6y ago

> From what I understand batteries remain the lion's share of an electric vehicle's total production cost (I've heard as much as $16K/vehicle). I've seen this same figure for current EVs. But it's important to look at the trend. Lithium-ion battery prices have decreased by 97% since their introduction in 1991. The price decrease curve is amazing [0]. Teslas were at least $80K in 2015; today a Tesla with similar range (Model 3) can be had for $40K. That decrease is largely the result of Tesla and Panasonic improving battery energy density and battery production economies of scale. There is every reason to believe this trend will continue, especially if solid-state batteries can be scaled up. As for rare-earth metals, cobalt is the worst one w.r.t. rarity and human labor. Tesla's next generation of batteries (starting in late 2021) eliminate cobalt and substitute nickel and manganese, which are far more plentiful and don't require child labor. Not trying to sanctify Tesla here; I just follow them more closely than other battery manufacturers. The others are probably working toward similar goals. https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2021/EE/D0EE02681F https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2021/EE/D0EE0...

clouddrover 6y ago
Lithium sulfur batteries are also interesting. They're cheaper, lighter, and the cells don't use cobalt, manganese, or nickel. The problem to date has been poor cycle life but people are working on it: - https://oxisenergy.com/technology/ https://oxisenergy.com/technology/ - https://oxisenergy.com/wp-content-uploads-2020-11-press-release-nov-2020-final-pdf-2/ https://oxisenergy.com/wp-content-uploads-2020-11-press-rele... - https://theconversation.com/batteries-made-with-sulfur-could-be-cheaper-greener-and-hold-more-energy-129135 https://theconversation.com/batteries-made-with-sulfur-could... - https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/1/eaay2757 https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/1/eaay2757
runeks 6y ago
Here’s the chart of interest: https://img.electronicdesign.com/files/base/ebm/electronicdesign/image/2021/04/210334_NewsMod_MIT_LiIon_Price_Drop1.60746b781680d.png https://img.electronicdesign.com/files/base/ebm/electronicde...
panabee 6y ago

blake1 6y ago

Batteries are quite likely to continue to decrease.[1] Most industrial processes follow a learning curve inverse to the cumulative units produced. And it makes sense: each efficiency improvement has a fixed cost, and only gets made if enough units get shipped. Estimates I have seen are that LI is on a 13% annual decrease, which means that your $16k pack will be $4.5k by 2030. By then, I would bet that the Honda Civic EV is cheaper than the Honda Civic ICE. In addition to the batter, there are fewer moving parts and simpler assembly, which means less labor; this type of manufacturing has barely started to scale up. Not guaranteed, but my estimates might turn out to be conservative. And as for rare earths: as demand increases, it becomes increasingly profitable to extract marginal deposits. That's what fracking is, after all. [1] https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/20/5276/pdf https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/20/5276/pdf

brigade 6y ago

That link must include new registrations for used cars, and exclude trucks. After all, the Focus was discontinued in 2019. All the manufacturers report new US car sales, and except for the RAV4, in 2019 the cars on the list were outsold within their their own brand by cars not on the list. For instance, the Nissan sold 209k Altimas in 2019 to 350k Rogues, or Honda sold 267k Accords and 325k Civics to 384k CR-Vs, or Chevy sold 132k Malibus and 45k Impalas to 575k Silverados, or Ford sold a mere 12k Focuses to 898k F-series (don't see a further breakdown...)

mullingitover 6y ago

> If you're from California or New York, I'm sure $40K starting for this or a Model Y seems complexly within your means Not for regular working class people, far from it. A car that costs more than your gross annual wages isn't anywhere close to being within your means. Los Angeles median income in 2019: 28,072 USD NYC: 32,320 USD Nearly half of Los Angeles residents pay more than 50% of their income on rent[1]. In NYC, 42% of renters pay over 30% of their income on rent, 23% pay more than 50% of their income.[2] [1] https://news.usc.edu/179928/los-angeles-rent-burdened-households-basic-needs-usc-research/#:~:text=Three%20out%20of%20four%20Los,income%20on%20rent%20and%20utilities https://news.usc.edu/179928/los-angeles-rent-burdened-househ.... [2] https://wherewelive.cityofnewyork.us/explore-data/housing-conditions/#:~:text=Forty%20four%20percent%20of%20renter,among%20adult%20families%20(18%25) https://wherewelive.cityofnewyork.us/explore-data/housing-co....

stefan_ 6y ago
That's true, but then Americans also famously pay much more than they can afford on car loans for cars that they don't need.
- kfarr 6y ago
  Exactly. All this hullabaloo about the f150 being too expensive for the average american is ignoring the fact that the average american is in debt up to their eyeballs.
tooltalk 6y ago
hate to nitpick, but NYC's median household income is ~$58K -- nearly double the figure you cited.

canadianfella 6y ago

Abusive?

jhgb 6y ago

kbenson 6y ago

> If you're from California or New York, I'm sure $40K starting for this or a Model Y seems complexly within your means Keep in mind that being in CA also means quite a bit of your income goes to housing for a lot of people. It's pretty common to be house poor in California. I know I'm sure not looking to add more than absolutely necessary to my monthly payments.

scythe 6y ago

>rare earth metals that seemingly remain popular within the batteries To clarify: rare-earths are required for the magnets in EV motors. Cobalt is rare, but not a rare-earth, and is used in the batteries. The supply of lithium and nickel may affect prices at high production volumes (widespread adoption) but is not currently a significant factor. Replacements for cobalt in batteries are the object of recent research; replacements for rare-earth metals in magnets have been sought for decades, with Fe16N2 and AlMn leading the pack at a treacle-esque trickle.

jhgb 6y ago
> To clarify: rare-earths are required for the magnets in EV motors. Not necessarily; they're just convenient, but not strictly required. Model S vehicles use induction motors and they seem to work just fine.

kleiba 6y ago

range, availability, or charging which are solved enough But are they really? Especially for charging, I'm still not convinced. The articles makes a case that you can go and grab a coffee while your ID.4 charges in 30 minutes at a high-speed charging stations. Sorry, but "30 minutes" and "high-speed" in one sentence seems somewhat misplaced. Who can afford to just waste 30 minutes for charging on a regular basis? I currently live in a suburb in central Europe. I just checked on https://chargemap.com/ https://chargemap.com/ for my area - I don't know how up-to-date their map is but there are only a few charging stations within 20 minutes from my house, none of which is a high-speed charging station. And unlike houses in North America, almost none of the houses on my street has a drive way, i.e., me and most of my neighbors park on the road, sometimes a few houses down from mine - so, no chance for charging a car over night at home. Of course, before I moved to the burbs, I sometimes had to park a few streets away at night because apartment buildings here typically don't offer parking garages (they exist, but it's not common). Unlike some people with strong opinions, I'm actually in favor of electric cars. However, the practicability is just not there for the way a lot of everyday life is currently organized in many parts of the world.

Brakenshire 6y ago
It’s solved for people with driveways.
- AmericanChopper 6y ago
  I have a drive way, and it’s not solved for me. My driving needs would require me to be frequently filling up at charging stations. These kind of “it’s solved” statements are very much picking the facts to fit the conclusion, rather than the other way around. Pointing this out usually elicits a “well you should change your lifestyle to better suit the features of an electric car”. If you tried to say that about software features most of us would intuitively know how dumb it is, but it’s supposedly a much more reasonable argument when made about transport.
  - csomar 6y ago
    > My driving needs would require me to be frequently filling up at charging stations. I don't think $40k electric cars (or even the long-range Tesla models) are for people who use cars for work and require frequent/long distances. This is more for the guy who does 15-30km/day commute, then maybe few km to the mall and has a driveway in his house. Maybe once in a while does 100km trip to some mountain. Best you can do for now is a hybrid.

argonaut 6y ago

The ID4 is precisely the next step EVs need towards affordability. The base ID4 will cost $33,690 after federal tax credit (and after destination fee). A top trim 2021 Subaru Forester costs about $32-34k (MSRP is $36k, this is the price after dealer discounting according to KBB). Still not quite as affordable considering we're talking about a top trim Subaru, but definitely getting close. And after state rebates / if someone factors in gas costs, the ID4 can come out ahead.

sngz 6y ago

their biggest hurdle apparently is inability to design EV's that don't look ridiculous and not a crossover/SUV. Many people I know would be getting one by now if they can just come out with something that looks like a normal car like the model 3 performance but doesn't have Tesla's poor quality control and customer service.

URSpider94 6y ago

Keep in mind that the $40k price is eligible for a $7500 federal tax credit, plus in CA you’ll get a $1500 instant rebate at purchase from a utility company fund, plus any middle class buyer will get a $2500 (I think) state rebate. That takes the net price down to under $30k.

erikstarck 6y ago

Total cost of ownership makes the electric car much more competitive than simply just looking at the price at purchase.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

paganel 6y ago

This electric car "revolution" is also a very good way to keep the poor people firmly in their place, at least here in Europe. As a low-income single-mom you might have used to drive your kid to a better school in a 15-year old 1.2 Opel Corsa while living just outside Paris, where rents are cheaper and the social environment is better (i.e. no gangs) Tough lock, that's hardly allowed anymore. It doesn't matter if that means that your kid you'll have to attend a worst school or that you'll have to move closer to the city (and to the gangs) in order to get some chance at public transportation, that car is a threat to society. Also, gently look away while the government fills the pockets of middle-class people with thousands of euros (even more) representing electric-car "subsidies".

JohnJamesRambo 6y ago

I used to think a Tesla was beyond my reach completely but then I started doing the math on how much gas I was buying per month with a regular car, how much I was spending on repairs and oil changes etc. All my time working on the cars. Driving old run down pieces of crap until the inevitable head gasket failure that costs more than the vehicle is worth to fix. I said enough is enough I’ll get a damn car without a head gasket! I live in a state with some of the cheapest electricity in the USA, the Tesla Model 3 is almost free for me to drive and I can charge in off-peak times for truly mind blowing MPGe values. I also hadn’t thought about how the car retains its value. My gas cars depreciate rapidly. My brand new Tesla cost 40k when all is said and done and used Teslas several years old were going for 38,500 or so. The test drive of the Tesla sold my girlfriend and I on it completely. It was the first car I’ve ever driven that felt like what the future should and could be like. http://chooseev.com/savings-calculator/ http://chooseev.com/savings-calculator/

Reason077 6y ago

> "as electric vehicles become more popular the rare earth metals that seemingly remain popular within the batteries may increase in cost" This is a myth. Lithium ion battery cells do not typically contain any rare earth metals. Permanent magnet motors in EVs do contain rare earths (such as neodymium). As do the catalytic converters in combustion vehicles.

Blumfid 6y ago

We are at the beginning of ev and you already can buy them at affordable prices just not yet in every category. Give it time. Right now a ton of money gets invested into batteries and co. When you look how much impact proper market penetration is for prices (see smartphones, solar energy etc.) It will come and fast.