10 ms·

At 38.5% vaccinated, US may be running low on people eager for a shot

42 points by lsllc 6y ago

fouc 6y ago
Already 61% of the US have gotten their first jab, and it is only natural that the pace will slow down a bit. Distribution is always a bit of a long-tail. Especially when the last 13% are going to be the least interested. edit: misread article re: 200 million doses
- ed25519FUUU 6y ago
  After my second jab I honestly don’t care. Time to get on with life. We have someone in our family that can’t be vaccinated for medical reasons and they feel the same way. The risk goes down significantly when the whole family is vaccinated. It’s time to put covid in the “managed risk” section of our life and get on with things.
  - jghn 6y ago
    Yep. I'll feel bad for the people who can't get a jab due to lack of herd immunity and I'll worry about the anti-vaxxers leading to escape. But even with that I know I won't be able to help but have a "screw 'em" stance pretty quick with the people who are choosing to not get vaccinated.
  - barbazoo 6y ago
    Given that it seems that you can be transmitting the virus without developing symptoms, would it really be that much safer for an unvaccinated person?
    - jghn 6y ago
      Depends on your vaccine. NEJM had a RWE study on Pfizer from Israel's data [1] that showed the 2nd shot had 92% efficacy against asymptomatic infection. Symptomatic infection was 94%. [1]: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2101765 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2101765
      - barbazoo 6y ago
        That's fantastic, thank you.
  - idiotsecant 6y ago
    You should care because your vaccine doesn't necessarily prevent you from catching a mutated variant . Given a long enough timeline and enough hosts such a strain will evolve, it's only a matter of time.
    - mikem170 6y ago
      Is there any science supporting your statement?
      - idiotsecant 6y ago
        You want a source for what? That viruses are subject to evolutionary pressures and will mutate to better adapt to their environments like literally everything else as advantageous random mutations are found?
        mikem170 6y ago
        You seem to be overstating the likelihood of covid-19 mutating into another strain, like the flu does. It's a coronavirus and those are known to be different in this regard. I haven't seen a source saying that we should expect immunity-evading strains. Do you have anything decent?
        idiotsecant 6y ago
        They literally already exist!
        mikem170 6y ago
        >You should care because your vaccine doesn't necessarily prevent you from catching a mutated variant . Given a long enough timeline and enough hosts such a strain will evolve, it's only a matter of time. Yes, I know there are variants. But I've seen no science saying that it is likely or expected that the vaccine won't work against covid-19 variants. Have you? > They literally already exist! Ok, I googled and found this: "Variant or strain? Experts explain what's happened to the coronavirus" [0] From the article: "However, Soucy noted that all currently known variants of COVID-19 belong to the SARS-CoV-2 strain and have not mutated enough to either be classified as their own strain or be ineffective against current and prospective COVID-19 vaccines." Another quote from the article: "Infectious disease expert Dr. Lisa Barrett told CTV News Channel on Sunday that viruses often mutate, but some viruses do it more than others. She noted that while the genetic code of coronaviruses does typically change over time, she says the mutations aren’t normally a cause for concern." Here's another article, with references to multiple studies: "We now have the best evidence yet that everyone develops long-term coronavirus immunity after infection — and it's not just about antibodies" [1] From that article: "Many people who've never gotten COVID-19 seem to have memory T cells that can recognize the new coronavirus." ... "In this case, experts think these cross-reactive T cells likely come from previous exposure to other coronaviruses — those that cause common colds." That's the kind of stuff I find when I dig into this. What are you seeing? [0] https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/variant-or-strain-experts-explain-what-s-happened-to-the-coronavirus-1.5245923 https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/variant-or-strain-... [1] https://www.businessinsider.com/long-term-coronavirus-immunity-t-cells-2020-8?op=1 https://www.businessinsider.com/long-term-coronavirus-immuni...
- brink 6y ago
  Isn't herd immunity at 70%? This, along with those that have natural resistance to it should get us there, right?
  - barbazoo 6y ago
    Does the distribution matter here? I wonder if there'll be pockets of unvaccinated people in areas of higher vaccination hesitancy and what that means for herd immunity.
    - ajross 6y ago
      There always will be, but the nature of "herd" immunity means that such outbreaks will not be able to jump to the broader population, because on average outbreaks in a herd-immune community shrink and don't grow.
  - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
    It’s not clear. US health officials say it’s higher (https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/12/24/health/herd-immunity-covid-coronavirus.amp.html https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/12/24/heal...), although Fauci’s credibility in this interview is kinda compromised by the statement that he wasn’t previously telling people what he really thought.
  - superkuh 6y ago
    That was estimated for the original Wuhan sequence and the early single mutation D614G variant. Current variants with the 501.Y change have almost twice the virulence (they infect people more easily). And the 501Y.V2 and V3 have the E484K mutation (sequenced first in South Africa and Brazil) that makes them escape immune responses to the original Wuman and D614G variants. This also applies to a lesser degree to L452R sequenced first in California, USA but it does not share the increased virulence of the 501Y variants of concern. Herd immunity might have been 70% in March 2020 but much more than that is required now. This is especially true as various ignorant populations have decided that no particular protectective behaviors are needed raising the R number even higher.
- ajross 6y ago
  Not yet, per this link we're at 39%. Maybe you're looking at data for total doses given? Lots of the vaccination in the US has been (IMHO, inappropriately) focused on completing the course, so while we might have had enough doses to put one in 60% of the population, we actually put two in most of those people. The UK did the opposite, where slightly more total vaccine led to only 13% of people being completely vaccinated but 49% having at least one dose. And clearly their outbreak curve looks much better. Though it's worth pointing out that the UK curve seems to be levelling off at an asymptote of about 50% vaccination, which is too low and broadly confirms the contention in the linked article. Get your shots, folks. https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countries-normalized&highlight=United%20States&show=highlight-only&y=both&scale=linear&data=vaccinePeople&data-source=owid&xaxis=right#countries-normalized https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countr...
  - naturalauction 6y ago
    The UK “leveling off” is likely a result of vaccine availability, especially as the number of second doses are ramping up (they have decided to use a longer gap between the first and second dose). I believe 95% of over 50s are vaccinated and the program just opened up eligibility for non at-risk people aged 45-50 a few days ago. Now with potential fear around blood clots, future uptake is yet to be seen, I think it’s too early to say that vaccinations are leveling off.
- vjeux 6y ago
  38.5% has at least one shot (as the title of the article says), not 61%. 61% is the result of a survey.
  - fouc 6y ago
    edit: misread article
    - ac29 6y ago
      You arent reading the article. From the first paragraph: "Over 127 million adults—38.5 percent of the US population—have received at least one shot. Over 80 million adults—24 percent of the US population—are now fully vaccinated."
amelius 6y ago
Just put us in a strict lockdown for a while, and the trend will change.
- vptr 6y ago
  I would be very disappointed if things don't get relaxed any time soon. I mean, why the hell did all these people take the vaccines then? Where I live, we don't have lockdowns, but I'm very tired of wearing masks everywhere.
  - maxerickson 6y ago
    I got vaccinated (well, I'm between shots, but whatever) as a reasonably healthy person in their 40s for 2 reasons: It makes me less likely to transmit the virus to other people, and because even though my risk of severe illness is low, the vaccines still reduce it. I certainly expect restrictions to continue to relax. It is unfortunate that people didn't have a few more weeks patience, that along with higher vaccine uptake would have ended things sooner.
  - plank_time 6y ago
    In California all restrictions except masks will be removed in June. So it’s coming. I think everything will be back to normal by September.
  - jaldhar 6y ago
    Just stop; I have for the past four months or so. I carry one with me and will put it on if requested like in a shop or public building (Increasingly no one asks.) And I voluntarily wear it in situations where it might actually help e.g. on the train. Other than that I conduct my life exactly as I did before the pandemic. It hasn’t affected my health or the health of anyone I know in the least.
egypturnash 6y ago
The finding may be linked to a partisan divide. Rural areas often swing Republican, and Republicans have consistently been among the most resistant to vaccination across many surveys. In the latest KFF data, 29 percent of Republicans reported that they would “definitely not” get vaccinated. At this point I am like, okay, fine, just stay out there on your tractor with your new covid variants and don't come into the city; maybe if enough of these anti-vax Republicans die off to change the voting profiles of all these intensely gerrymandered districts and make Fox News' ratings fall off a cliff then we can actually have some nice things. The last five or so years have really exhausted my patience with trying to convert, educate, or understand these people, and if they wanna do things that will increase their risk then I am just gonna throw up my hands and say "have fun with your sneezing parties, stay the fuck out of my city, see you next life". I await my downvotes from angry Trumpies.
- ed25519FUUU 6y ago
  I know quite of a few of these people and I’m consistently surprised at how little is understood about their motives from comments like this. People pretend like they’re some alien race immune to logic. If that’s what you want to believe about your countrymen than that’s on you. Which is a shame because there’s things we could do to change vaccine rates among these groups. For example find alternatives to aborted fetal stem cells for testing and research (or worse, ingredients).
  - api 6y ago
    I’m afraid I will need references for the ingredients comment.
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
  - planet-and-halo 6y ago
    I'm vaccinated, but it's also remarkable to me that people think that not taking a drug developed on an emergency use basis with no long term studies is somehow irrational or ridiculous. Some reasons are clearly silly, but being nervous about being a guinea pig for a new medical treatment is surely reasonable. I got it because I decided it made sense for me, but I still feel some anxiety about it and definitely am not going to judge other people for feeling the same way.
hprotagonist 6y ago
Speak for yourself, i guess: people in my state are tripping all over themselves (and the vaccination signup official website(s), unofficial website(s) and twitter bot(s)) to get in line for appointments.
- borner791 6y ago
  someones in Massachusetts....
  - scruple 6y ago
    It's pretty similar where I am in SoCal.
    - ryandrake 6y ago
      If you're in CA and happen to have a car, just plan a road trip to one of the "red" counties in the middle of the state. Sad stereotype but true. We're in the Bay area and got ours at a nearly empty "mass-vaccination" facility in the central valley.
      - scruple 6y ago
        I was able to get myself and my family signed up through UCI Health. But I got a friend, and his girlfriend, who drove up to the central valley (he's originally from the Fresno area) to get theirs. Another friend, who lives on my street in south OC, drove out to Redlands to get his. Another friend and his wife who live down here got their first shot this weekend up in Livermore, where her family is. They'll make another trip up north to get the 2nd. It's all pretty dumb and arbitrary to me, the way this thing is being handled. In each case they were unable to get theirs locally, everything was booked with no insight into when the next availability would be.
  - lsllc 6y ago
    There are literally tons of appointments in Massachusetts: Check out: https://www.macovidvaccines.com https://www.macovidvaccines.com There's probably close to 800-1000 appointments available there right now. Also follow @vaccinetime on Twitter. Right now about 80% of the over 16-18 year olds are eligible the remainder become eligible on Monday. There's been lots of appointments for the last week or so despite the J&J setbacks (MA had a big drop of J&J from the Feds recently and consequentially had to cancel & rebook some big vaccine events).
tyingq 6y ago
Here's the KFF data mentioned in the article: https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/dashboard/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-dashboard/?utm_source=web&utm_medium=trending&utm_campaign=COVID-19-vaccine-monitor https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/dashboard/kff-covid... The "definitely not" view is interesting.
ilamont 6y ago
I don't get it. Yesterday the mayor of our city sent out an email detailing how many people have gotten it, broken out by age: Residents who are partially or fully vaccinated include 95%+ of those who are 75 years old or more, 95%+ of those 65-74 years old, 81% who are 50-64 years old, 65% who are 30-49 years old, 38% that are 20-29 years old, and 8% who are 0-19 years old. My wife and I are in our 50s. We signed up for the state registration system, we got email updates from our healthcare providers (affiliated with one of the major Boston medical centers) stating that we are eligible ... but no notifications of when we can actually go somewhere to get the jabs.
- tyingq 6y ago
  There's definitely not a great way to see all of your options. I was able to through my county's program, but there is also a city driven program, options at CVS, private practice doctors, clinics, and so on. None of them seemed to be aware of each other. My spouse was notified by the hospital that her primary care physician practices at, and got her vaccinations that way. My son drove to a rural town, where there's a larger "not interested" crowd, and was able to get both shots in a walk-up fashion with no appointment.
- zarkov99 6y ago
  In my state I was advised to call Pharmacies at the end of they day to see if they had extra doses that would otherwise spoil. Perhaps you could try the same if you are concerned about how long the authorities are taking?
  - ed25519FUUU 6y ago
    This is exactly what I did. I added myself to an extra or expiring dose list a month ago and they had me in a few days later with an extra dose.
- myrandomcomment 6y ago
  If you are eligible your provider should be able to give you the shot. They likely have a sign up on there website or health portal for you and you wife. Here in NorCal, PAMF has a simple sign up. Not going to link to it has I do not want it to get hugged to death :)
_-david-_ 6y ago
I think one issue is we were told after somebody gets both shots they are still required to wear a mask, dine outdoors, socially distance, have their office closed, etc. It causes some people to feel there is no reason to get the shot.
- guscost 6y ago
  Also, a “third booster” and now “annual boosters” have been announced, as predicted. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/annual-covid-19-vaccine-booster-shots-likely-needed-pfizer-ceo-says-11618520527 https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/annual... https://mobile.twitter.com/guscost/status/1342998039817027584 https://mobile.twitter.com/guscost/status/134299803981702758...
  - ed25519FUUU 6y ago
    Getting strong “15 days to flatten the curve” vibes.
    - guscost 6y ago
      “It’s just a tiny inconvenience, don’t be selfish!”
      - perl4ever 6y ago
        The only way I can interpret this is that you believe the cost-benefit is not there without a substantial altruistic motive. Do you think that, and if so, why?
        guscost 6y ago
        The cost in this case is yet another step (or giant leap, depending on what you think of the past year) towards tyranny, to say nothing of the millions who will suffer and die from the actions that have already been taken. The benefit has not been worth the cost, and I will never go along with it. I will literally die on that hill if necessary. At this point I will not spend any more time trying to convince you. The only other thing to answer now is, are you ready to fight a war over this?
tbihl 6y ago
In my city, my wife and I got phone notifications telling us to sign up. I've had my second one for 2.5 months, but my wife signed up immediately (SAHM, 27yo, no risk factors), and was able to get a next day appointment. The operation was big enough that the queue involved continuous walking. Apparently the whole thing was being done by military.
- airhead969 6y ago
  The military in each country should've deployed it because they are logistics first. Leaving it to commercial and local interests just leads to amateur fumbling for something of life-safety importance.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
seanmcdirmid 6y ago
I was going to wait until I could just schedule an appointment at the drugstore in my neighborhood. Right now, they are still doing vaccines en masse at far away spots that would require significant commuting, and anyways, they just opened up eligibility a couple of days ago in my state.
kodah 6y ago
I live in a major city and I'm having to drive an hour away to get one. I have also discovered a lot of people I know are cautious about getting it. That isn't isolated to conservatives either.
einpoklum 6y ago
Well, in Israel, where there has been a highly effective vaccination campaign with a head start on most other places, and orderly distribution by the "sick funds" (= healthcare provider non-profit organizations; there are only about 4 of these) - the 2nd-dose vaccination rate is only 57.3%: https://datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/general https://datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/general (sorry - linked dashboard is in Hebrew, they haven't translated it) Among seniors it is well over 90%, but younger people have gotten vaccinated at much lower rates; and of course, nobody under 16 is vaccinated. (Palestinians from the West Bank and Gaza are, unfortunately, not counted among those to be vaccinated.)
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
myself248 6y ago
I'm eager but can't find an outdoor site. You couldn't pay me to go indoors with a bunch of other unvaccinated people right now. Early in the vaccination effort (when the weather was a lot nastier!), there was a lot of press around these giant parking-lot sites with tents and you'd just roll down your window and get the shot. I wasn't eligible then. Now that I'm eligible, they seem to be gone? Time to make another round of calls, I guess.
- airhead969 6y ago
  They don't have any drive-through site appointments where you are? Where's that if you don't mind me asking?
  - myself248 6y ago
    Michigan. There's a drive-up site in Detroit but it's for city residents only, and I'm a few miles out in the burbs. Literally everything I can find is indoors in one fashion or another.
    - airhead969 6y ago
      Yuck. Is the weather bad or they don't have resources to hold it outside for inherent safety?
      - myself248 6y ago
        The weather's bad _today_ but it's been mostly beautiful for the last two months, and will be beautiful all summer. I just don't think they're thinking of inherent safety. They're working on "six feet, fifteen minutes", which is increasingly useless and I'd argue now actively harmful guidance given the new variants. If anything, the CDC recently _walked back_ some recommendations around fomite transmission, which I think was based on extensive study of the early variants which dominated the last year, and may or may not even be valid with the UK variant which is now prevalent. In essence, we have enough delay between the situation on the ground, and the studies coming out, that the feedback loop is driving a wild oscillation. And I don't wish to get caught in it.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
airhead969 6y ago
Just got my 2nd Moderna appointment. I kept trying for weeks because the local health department mismanaged appointments (lost thousands too) and made it a free-for-all like a Black Friday. I think it was deplorable that they just didn't take requests from everyone who wanted it, prioritized them, and ran appointments as a lottery as inventory appeared. For people who don't want it long-term, emulate K-12 schools and vaccines policies: make the anti-vaxxers experience (or should) consequences as punishment for being irrational wingnuts.
lsllc 6y ago
META: This submission appears to have become victim of the "flame war detector" where comments > points gets it hidden: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20537821 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20537821 @dang, not sure I'd consider this discussion so far a flame-war!
- m463 6y ago
  > dang: > We usually call it the overheated discussion detector now, even though the phrase is clumsy, because sometimes the discussions are just low-quality rather than outright flamewars. I think that's fascinating. Lots of niceties behind the curtain. (maybe the opposite of most sites, sort of like stopping trading)
xboxnolifes 6y ago
I wouldn't be too surprised. Many people in my bubble see covid as a slightly worse flu, and yearly flu vaccination (iirc) is around 50% in the US.
meowfly 6y ago
I somehow lucked out and was able to find an appointment on my first try. My friend, in contrast, couldn't find anything and ended up driving to Yakima from Seattle to get a shot from FEMA. I don't understand this. Why would a large city, which is much higher risk but with far more hospitals and ultra-cold storage be far less capable of providing drive-up vaccine service than Yakima? Did we allocate far too many vaccines p/person to rural communities? The article suggests rural communities are less likely to want the vaccine but it doesn't make it clear if distribution was based on demand at all.
- maxerickson 6y ago
  States are doing the allocation, so it may vary. The last few weeks in Michigan, 2x as much vaccine per person has been going into the Detroit region than has been coming here. I don't really know what demand looks like here though. We could have a few hundred unused doses, while it appears there's tens of thousands in the counties around Detroit (but they also have much more capacity to administer).

42 points by lsllc 6y ago

fouc 6y ago

Already 61% of the US have gotten their first jab, and it is only natural that the pace will slow down a bit. Distribution is always a bit of a long-tail. Especially when the last 13% are going to be the least interested. edit: misread article re: 200 million doses

ed25519FUUU 6y ago
After my second jab I honestly don’t care. Time to get on with life. We have someone in our family that can’t be vaccinated for medical reasons and they feel the same way. The risk goes down significantly when the whole family is vaccinated. It’s time to put covid in the “managed risk” section of our life and get on with things.
- jghn 6y ago
  Yep. I'll feel bad for the people who can't get a jab due to lack of herd immunity and I'll worry about the anti-vaxxers leading to escape. But even with that I know I won't be able to help but have a "screw 'em" stance pretty quick with the people who are choosing to not get vaccinated.
- barbazoo 6y ago
  Given that it seems that you can be transmitting the virus without developing symptoms, would it really be that much safer for an unvaccinated person?
  - jghn 6y ago
    Depends on your vaccine. NEJM had a RWE study on Pfizer from Israel's data [1] that showed the 2nd shot had 92% efficacy against asymptomatic infection. Symptomatic infection was 94%. [1]: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2101765 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2101765
    - barbazoo 6y ago
      That's fantastic, thank you.
- idiotsecant 6y ago
  You should care because your vaccine doesn't necessarily prevent you from catching a mutated variant . Given a long enough timeline and enough hosts such a strain will evolve, it's only a matter of time.
  - mikem170 6y ago
    Is there any science supporting your statement?
    - idiotsecant 6y ago
      You want a source for what? That viruses are subject to evolutionary pressures and will mutate to better adapt to their environments like literally everything else as advantageous random mutations are found?
      - mikem170 6y ago
        You seem to be overstating the likelihood of covid-19 mutating into another strain, like the flu does. It's a coronavirus and those are known to be different in this regard. I haven't seen a source saying that we should expect immunity-evading strains. Do you have anything decent?
        idiotsecant 6y ago
        They literally already exist!
        mikem170 6y ago
        >You should care because your vaccine doesn't necessarily prevent you from catching a mutated variant . Given a long enough timeline and enough hosts such a strain will evolve, it's only a matter of time. Yes, I know there are variants. But I've seen no science saying that it is likely or expected that the vaccine won't work against covid-19 variants. Have you? > They literally already exist! Ok, I googled and found this: "Variant or strain? Experts explain what's happened to the coronavirus" [0] From the article: "However, Soucy noted that all currently known variants of COVID-19 belong to the SARS-CoV-2 strain and have not mutated enough to either be classified as their own strain or be ineffective against current and prospective COVID-19 vaccines." Another quote from the article: "Infectious disease expert Dr. Lisa Barrett told CTV News Channel on Sunday that viruses often mutate, but some viruses do it more than others. She noted that while the genetic code of coronaviruses does typically change over time, she says the mutations aren’t normally a cause for concern." Here's another article, with references to multiple studies: "We now have the best evidence yet that everyone develops long-term coronavirus immunity after infection — and it's not just about antibodies" [1] From that article: "Many people who've never gotten COVID-19 seem to have memory T cells that can recognize the new coronavirus." ... "In this case, experts think these cross-reactive T cells likely come from previous exposure to other coronaviruses — those that cause common colds." That's the kind of stuff I find when I dig into this. What are you seeing? [0] https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/variant-or-strain-experts-explain-what-s-happened-to-the-coronavirus-1.5245923 https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/variant-or-strain-... [1] https://www.businessinsider.com/long-term-coronavirus-immunity-t-cells-2020-8?op=1 https://www.businessinsider.com/long-term-coronavirus-immuni...
brink 6y ago
Isn't herd immunity at 70%? This, along with those that have natural resistance to it should get us there, right?
- barbazoo 6y ago
  Does the distribution matter here? I wonder if there'll be pockets of unvaccinated people in areas of higher vaccination hesitancy and what that means for herd immunity.
  - ajross 6y ago
    There always will be, but the nature of "herd" immunity means that such outbreaks will not be able to jump to the broader population, because on average outbreaks in a herd-immune community shrink and don't grow.
- SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
  It’s not clear. US health officials say it’s higher (https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/12/24/health/herd-immunity-covid-coronavirus.amp.html https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/12/24/heal...), although Fauci’s credibility in this interview is kinda compromised by the statement that he wasn’t previously telling people what he really thought.
- superkuh 6y ago
  That was estimated for the original Wuhan sequence and the early single mutation D614G variant. Current variants with the 501.Y change have almost twice the virulence (they infect people more easily). And the 501Y.V2 and V3 have the E484K mutation (sequenced first in South Africa and Brazil) that makes them escape immune responses to the original Wuman and D614G variants. This also applies to a lesser degree to L452R sequenced first in California, USA but it does not share the increased virulence of the 501Y variants of concern. Herd immunity might have been 70% in March 2020 but much more than that is required now. This is especially true as various ignorant populations have decided that no particular protectective behaviors are needed raising the R number even higher.
ajross 6y ago
Not yet, per this link we're at 39%. Maybe you're looking at data for total doses given? Lots of the vaccination in the US has been (IMHO, inappropriately) focused on completing the course, so while we might have had enough doses to put one in 60% of the population, we actually put two in most of those people. The UK did the opposite, where slightly more total vaccine led to only 13% of people being completely vaccinated but 49% having at least one dose. And clearly their outbreak curve looks much better. Though it's worth pointing out that the UK curve seems to be levelling off at an asymptote of about 50% vaccination, which is too low and broadly confirms the contention in the linked article. Get your shots, folks. https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countries-normalized&highlight=United%20States&show=highlight-only&y=both&scale=linear&data=vaccinePeople&data-source=owid&xaxis=right#countries-normalized https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countr...
- naturalauction 6y ago
  The UK “leveling off” is likely a result of vaccine availability, especially as the number of second doses are ramping up (they have decided to use a longer gap between the first and second dose). I believe 95% of over 50s are vaccinated and the program just opened up eligibility for non at-risk people aged 45-50 a few days ago. Now with potential fear around blood clots, future uptake is yet to be seen, I think it’s too early to say that vaccinations are leveling off.
vjeux 6y ago
38.5% has at least one shot (as the title of the article says), not 61%. 61% is the result of a survey.
- fouc 6y ago
  edit: misread article
  - ac29 6y ago
    You arent reading the article. From the first paragraph: "Over 127 million adults—38.5 percent of the US population—have received at least one shot. Over 80 million adults—24 percent of the US population—are now fully vaccinated."

amelius 6y ago

Just put us in a strict lockdown for a while, and the trend will change.

vptr 6y ago
I would be very disappointed if things don't get relaxed any time soon. I mean, why the hell did all these people take the vaccines then? Where I live, we don't have lockdowns, but I'm very tired of wearing masks everywhere.
- maxerickson 6y ago
  I got vaccinated (well, I'm between shots, but whatever) as a reasonably healthy person in their 40s for 2 reasons: It makes me less likely to transmit the virus to other people, and because even though my risk of severe illness is low, the vaccines still reduce it. I certainly expect restrictions to continue to relax. It is unfortunate that people didn't have a few more weeks patience, that along with higher vaccine uptake would have ended things sooner.
- plank_time 6y ago
  In California all restrictions except masks will be removed in June. So it’s coming. I think everything will be back to normal by September.
- jaldhar 6y ago
  Just stop; I have for the past four months or so. I carry one with me and will put it on if requested like in a shop or public building (Increasingly no one asks.) And I voluntarily wear it in situations where it might actually help e.g. on the train. Other than that I conduct my life exactly as I did before the pandemic. It hasn’t affected my health or the health of anyone I know in the least.

egypturnash 6y ago

The finding may be linked to a partisan divide. Rural areas often swing Republican, and Republicans have consistently been among the most resistant to vaccination across many surveys. In the latest KFF data, 29 percent of Republicans reported that they would “definitely not” get vaccinated. At this point I am like, okay, fine, just stay out there on your tractor with your new covid variants and don't come into the city; maybe if enough of these anti-vax Republicans die off to change the voting profiles of all these intensely gerrymandered districts and make Fox News' ratings fall off a cliff then we can actually have some nice things. The last five or so years have really exhausted my patience with trying to convert, educate, or understand these people, and if they wanna do things that will increase their risk then I am just gonna throw up my hands and say "have fun with your sneezing parties, stay the fuck out of my city, see you next life". I await my downvotes from angry Trumpies.

ed25519FUUU 6y ago
I know quite of a few of these people and I’m consistently surprised at how little is understood about their motives from comments like this. People pretend like they’re some alien race immune to logic. If that’s what you want to believe about your countrymen than that’s on you. Which is a shame because there’s things we could do to change vaccine rates among these groups. For example find alternatives to aborted fetal stem cells for testing and research (or worse, ingredients).
- api 6y ago
  I’m afraid I will need references for the ingredients comment.
  - deleted 6y ago
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- planet-and-halo 6y ago
  I'm vaccinated, but it's also remarkable to me that people think that not taking a drug developed on an emergency use basis with no long term studies is somehow irrational or ridiculous. Some reasons are clearly silly, but being nervous about being a guinea pig for a new medical treatment is surely reasonable. I got it because I decided it made sense for me, but I still feel some anxiety about it and definitely am not going to judge other people for feeling the same way.

hprotagonist 6y ago

Speak for yourself, i guess: people in my state are tripping all over themselves (and the vaccination signup official website(s), unofficial website(s) and twitter bot(s)) to get in line for appointments.

borner791 6y ago
someones in Massachusetts....
- scruple 6y ago
  It's pretty similar where I am in SoCal.
  - ryandrake 6y ago
    If you're in CA and happen to have a car, just plan a road trip to one of the "red" counties in the middle of the state. Sad stereotype but true. We're in the Bay area and got ours at a nearly empty "mass-vaccination" facility in the central valley.
    - scruple 6y ago
      I was able to get myself and my family signed up through UCI Health. But I got a friend, and his girlfriend, who drove up to the central valley (he's originally from the Fresno area) to get theirs. Another friend, who lives on my street in south OC, drove out to Redlands to get his. Another friend and his wife who live down here got their first shot this weekend up in Livermore, where her family is. They'll make another trip up north to get the 2nd. It's all pretty dumb and arbitrary to me, the way this thing is being handled. In each case they were unable to get theirs locally, everything was booked with no insight into when the next availability would be.
- lsllc 6y ago
  There are literally tons of appointments in Massachusetts: Check out: https://www.macovidvaccines.com https://www.macovidvaccines.com There's probably close to 800-1000 appointments available there right now. Also follow @vaccinetime on Twitter. Right now about 80% of the over 16-18 year olds are eligible the remainder become eligible on Monday. There's been lots of appointments for the last week or so despite the J&J setbacks (MA had a big drop of J&J from the Feds recently and consequentially had to cancel & rebook some big vaccine events).

tyingq 6y ago

Here's the KFF data mentioned in the article: https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/dashboard/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-dashboard/?utm_source=web&utm_medium=trending&utm_campaign=COVID-19-vaccine-monitor https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/dashboard/kff-covid... The "definitely not" view is interesting.

ilamont 6y ago

I don't get it. Yesterday the mayor of our city sent out an email detailing how many people have gotten it, broken out by age: Residents who are partially or fully vaccinated include 95%+ of those who are 75 years old or more, 95%+ of those 65-74 years old, 81% who are 50-64 years old, 65% who are 30-49 years old, 38% that are 20-29 years old, and 8% who are 0-19 years old. My wife and I are in our 50s. We signed up for the state registration system, we got email updates from our healthcare providers (affiliated with one of the major Boston medical centers) stating that we are eligible ... but no notifications of when we can actually go somewhere to get the jabs.

tyingq 6y ago
There's definitely not a great way to see all of your options. I was able to through my county's program, but there is also a city driven program, options at CVS, private practice doctors, clinics, and so on. None of them seemed to be aware of each other. My spouse was notified by the hospital that her primary care physician practices at, and got her vaccinations that way. My son drove to a rural town, where there's a larger "not interested" crowd, and was able to get both shots in a walk-up fashion with no appointment.
zarkov99 6y ago
In my state I was advised to call Pharmacies at the end of they day to see if they had extra doses that would otherwise spoil. Perhaps you could try the same if you are concerned about how long the authorities are taking?
- ed25519FUUU 6y ago
  This is exactly what I did. I added myself to an extra or expiring dose list a month ago and they had me in a few days later with an extra dose.
myrandomcomment 6y ago
If you are eligible your provider should be able to give you the shot. They likely have a sign up on there website or health portal for you and you wife. Here in NorCal, PAMF has a simple sign up. Not going to link to it has I do not want it to get hugged to death :)

_-david-_ 6y ago

I think one issue is we were told after somebody gets both shots they are still required to wear a mask, dine outdoors, socially distance, have their office closed, etc. It causes some people to feel there is no reason to get the shot.

guscost 6y ago
Also, a “third booster” and now “annual boosters” have been announced, as predicted. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/annual-covid-19-vaccine-booster-shots-likely-needed-pfizer-ceo-says-11618520527 https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/annual... https://mobile.twitter.com/guscost/status/1342998039817027584 https://mobile.twitter.com/guscost/status/134299803981702758...
- ed25519FUUU 6y ago
  Getting strong “15 days to flatten the curve” vibes.
  - guscost 6y ago
    “It’s just a tiny inconvenience, don’t be selfish!”
    - perl4ever 6y ago
      The only way I can interpret this is that you believe the cost-benefit is not there without a substantial altruistic motive. Do you think that, and if so, why?
      - guscost 6y ago
        The cost in this case is yet another step (or giant leap, depending on what you think of the past year) towards tyranny, to say nothing of the millions who will suffer and die from the actions that have already been taken. The benefit has not been worth the cost, and I will never go along with it. I will literally die on that hill if necessary. At this point I will not spend any more time trying to convince you. The only other thing to answer now is, are you ready to fight a war over this?

tbihl 6y ago

In my city, my wife and I got phone notifications telling us to sign up. I've had my second one for 2.5 months, but my wife signed up immediately (SAHM, 27yo, no risk factors), and was able to get a next day appointment. The operation was big enough that the queue involved continuous walking. Apparently the whole thing was being done by military.

airhead969 6y ago
The military in each country should've deployed it because they are logistics first. Leaving it to commercial and local interests just leads to amateur fumbling for something of life-safety importance.
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seanmcdirmid 6y ago

I was going to wait until I could just schedule an appointment at the drugstore in my neighborhood. Right now, they are still doing vaccines en masse at far away spots that would require significant commuting, and anyways, they just opened up eligibility a couple of days ago in my state.

kodah 6y ago

I live in a major city and I'm having to drive an hour away to get one. I have also discovered a lot of people I know are cautious about getting it. That isn't isolated to conservatives either.

einpoklum 6y ago

Well, in Israel, where there has been a highly effective vaccination campaign with a head start on most other places, and orderly distribution by the "sick funds" (= healthcare provider non-profit organizations; there are only about 4 of these) - the 2nd-dose vaccination rate is only 57.3%: https://datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/general https://datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/general (sorry - linked dashboard is in Hebrew, they haven't translated it) Among seniors it is well over 90%, but younger people have gotten vaccinated at much lower rates; and of course, nobody under 16 is vaccinated. (Palestinians from the West Bank and Gaza are, unfortunately, not counted among those to be vaccinated.)

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myself248 6y ago

I'm eager but can't find an outdoor site. You couldn't pay me to go indoors with a bunch of other unvaccinated people right now. Early in the vaccination effort (when the weather was a lot nastier!), there was a lot of press around these giant parking-lot sites with tents and you'd just roll down your window and get the shot. I wasn't eligible then. Now that I'm eligible, they seem to be gone? Time to make another round of calls, I guess.

airhead969 6y ago
They don't have any drive-through site appointments where you are? Where's that if you don't mind me asking?
- myself248 6y ago
  Michigan. There's a drive-up site in Detroit but it's for city residents only, and I'm a few miles out in the burbs. Literally everything I can find is indoors in one fashion or another.
  - airhead969 6y ago
    Yuck. Is the weather bad or they don't have resources to hold it outside for inherent safety?
    - myself248 6y ago
      The weather's bad _today_ but it's been mostly beautiful for the last two months, and will be beautiful all summer. I just don't think they're thinking of inherent safety. They're working on "six feet, fifteen minutes", which is increasingly useless and I'd argue now actively harmful guidance given the new variants. If anything, the CDC recently _walked back_ some recommendations around fomite transmission, which I think was based on extensive study of the early variants which dominated the last year, and may or may not even be valid with the UK variant which is now prevalent. In essence, we have enough delay between the situation on the ground, and the studies coming out, that the feedback loop is driving a wild oscillation. And I don't wish to get caught in it.

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airhead969 6y ago

Just got my 2nd Moderna appointment. I kept trying for weeks because the local health department mismanaged appointments (lost thousands too) and made it a free-for-all like a Black Friday. I think it was deplorable that they just didn't take requests from everyone who wanted it, prioritized them, and ran appointments as a lottery as inventory appeared. For people who don't want it long-term, emulate K-12 schools and vaccines policies: make the anti-vaxxers experience (or should) consequences as punishment for being irrational wingnuts.

lsllc 6y ago

META: This submission appears to have become victim of the "flame war detector" where comments > points gets it hidden: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20537821 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20537821 @dang, not sure I'd consider this discussion so far a flame-war!

m463 6y ago
> dang: > We usually call it the overheated discussion detector now, even though the phrase is clumsy, because sometimes the discussions are just low-quality rather than outright flamewars. I think that's fascinating. Lots of niceties behind the curtain. (maybe the opposite of most sites, sort of like stopping trading)

xboxnolifes 6y ago

I wouldn't be too surprised. Many people in my bubble see covid as a slightly worse flu, and yearly flu vaccination (iirc) is around 50% in the US.

meowfly 6y ago

I somehow lucked out and was able to find an appointment on my first try. My friend, in contrast, couldn't find anything and ended up driving to Yakima from Seattle to get a shot from FEMA. I don't understand this. Why would a large city, which is much higher risk but with far more hospitals and ultra-cold storage be far less capable of providing drive-up vaccine service than Yakima? Did we allocate far too many vaccines p/person to rural communities? The article suggests rural communities are less likely to want the vaccine but it doesn't make it clear if distribution was based on demand at all.

maxerickson 6y ago
States are doing the allocation, so it may vary. The last few weeks in Michigan, 2x as much vaccine per person has been going into the Detroit region than has been coming here. I don't really know what demand looks like here though. We could have a few hundred unused doses, while it appears there's tens of thousands in the counties around Detroit (but they also have much more capacity to administer).