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Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress
- genericone 5y agoWhere are they aggregating all this insider data from? Is there an index of stocks being traded by government insiders and officials that can be tracked in real-time?
- CameronNemo 5y agoReal time? No. The legislators have to report their trades a couple months after they make them, IIRC.
- monkeybutton 5y agoThat's unfortunate; If was real time a copycat investment strategy would work, right?
- delecti 5y agoIIRC, the same law that requires them to report their trades makes it illegal to use that data to profit.
- weird-eye-issue 5y agoThere is no way it would be illegal to trade based on their disclosures
- greenshackle2 5y agotl;dr yes but you would probably get beaten to the punch by high frequency traders, and risk being exploited by the discloser. If you had sneaky exclusive access to their trading flow in real time then yeah sure you could copy them and get the benefits of insider trading. (And you might be guilty of insider trading yourself? I'm not sure how the law works.) If everyone knows Alice is doing insider trading and knows her trades, then when Alice buys X at $10.00, there will probably be other copycats piling into X and driving its price up, so you won't be able to get the same price as Alice, unless you're faster than everyone else. Since you don't know what the actual inside information is, you don't know if it's still worth it to buy at $10.20, $10.30, etc. Maybe the inside info was only slightly better than expected earnings and the price end up being only $10.05. This is somewhat exploitable by Alice, she doesn't need insider information anymore, she just has to buy random stock Z and disclose it, watch copycats pile into Z and drive its price up, then sell it back at a higher price.
- alfl 5y agoScanning the data in the linked article [0], most trades are reported within a week, usually only a few days, some same day. [0]: https://unusualwhales.com/i_am_the_senate/data https://unusualwhales.com/i_am_the_senate/data
- weird-eye-issue 5y agoIt talks about that pretty high up on the site that is linked. Just go read it.
- ceejayoz 5y ago> Like the US Senate, elected members in the US House of Representatives must disclose financial activity they or their spouse or their dependent children conduct while in office. These financial disclosures can be found here. https://unusualwhales.com/i_am_the_senate/data https://unusualwhales.com/i_am_the_senate/data Looks like the report gets filed shortly after the trade.
- sakopov 5y agoIf I had to guess I'd say they're probably using EDGAR - https://www.sec.gov/edgar https://www.sec.gov/edgar
- Scoundreller 5y agoTake a trip to 1995 and check out what we use in Canada: SEDAR: https://www.sedar.com/ https://www.sedar.com/
- dvaun 5y agoThe Office of the Clerk of the House has a page for downloading Zip files of annual data[0]. If you take the DocID from the XML or TXT files in those sets you can send a request to: https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/<doctype>-pdfs/<year>/<docid>.pdf - <doctype> works for the values "ptr" and "financial" - <year> self-explanatory - <docid> the DocID from the entries in the XML or TXT files Example: Nancy Pelosi disclosure/filing on 2021-04-09[1] [0]: https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/PublicDisclosure/FinancialDisclosure https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/PublicDisclosure/Financi... [1]: https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018539.pdf https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/202... This would be fun to play around with. I wonder if there's a better endpoint to source this from?
- adolph 5y agoIf you are using Python, this is an approach to get PDF tables into Pandas dataframes. https://towardsdatascience.com/how-to-extract-tables-from-pdf-using-python-pandas-and-tabula-py-c65e43bd754 https://towardsdatascience.com/how-to-extract-tables-from-pd...
- kgog 5y agoUnsurprisingly, vast majority of $ traded in Energy and Industrials is by GOP, and in tech is by Dems. Then there's this: > Meanwhile, Republican Congressman Mark Green, alone, accounts for 99% of the stock purchases in oil and gas companies like USA Compression and Energy Transfer. Look this guy up [1]: > Green rejects the scientific consensus that human activity plays a key role in climate change. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_E._Green#Climate_change https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_E._Green#Climate_change
- gnabgib 5y agoThe title is "On Life, Liberty, and Stock Markets" (h2.. most prominent on page), or "Unusual Whales" (html.head.title). While this title might be a synopsis, it doesn't exactly hit the guidelines[https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html]
- mabbo 5y agoThe very people whose job it should be to stop this sort of thing are the ones who are profiting from it. How do you change this? No really, how can we force congress to change the rules so that elected officials can't profit from inside information? Why would they ever vote for such a bill?
- maxwell 5y agoConstitutional amendment?
- mabbo 5y agoAnd who would be voting on those? > An amendment may be proposed and sent to the states for ratification by either: > The U.S. Congress, whenever a two-thirds majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives deem it necessary; or > A national convention, called by Congress for this purpose, on the application of the legislatures of two-thirds of the states (34 since 1959). The convention option has never been used. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_amendments_to_the_United_States_Constitution https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_amendments_to_the_Un...
- meepmorp 5y agoParticipants in a constitutional convention?
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- chrisco255 5y agoThe state national convention route is the most likely route to work if you really want to reign in Congress.
- gumby 5y agoThat's a very blunt instrument and difficult to get the wording correct.
- sakopov 5y ago> For example, Pelosi in Dec 22 was against more stimulus. Her husband buys deep ITM TSLA and AAPL calls that day. December 23rd, she is suddenly for stimulus again, with those same companies ralling 5%, giving her an instant +30 return. > Congressman Gottheimer is absolutely an incredible options trader. He’s been selling calls at peaks on $MSFT all 2021, & seemingly buying back the contracts on dips. This in blocks of $250,000 - $5,000,000, which is incredible size given the amount of $MSFT shares he owns. For ex, on 02-12 he sold 500k $MSFT $160 strike expiring 06/18/2021. On that same day, he bought deep ITM calls of $1M-5M at $145 expiring 03/19/2021. The whale caught both of his movements as well. This is fucking unreal.
- gadders 5y agoI don't know if specific trades are sketchy or legit, but I do think there should be some sort of log of net worth when you join congress, senate, houses of parliament etc and politicians be expected to explain any large gains over their time in office.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- chrisbolt 5y agoLike https://www.opensecrets.org/personal-finances https://www.opensecrets.org/personal-finances ?
- giantg2 5y agoFrankly, it's insider trading and should be restricted/prosecuted as such.
- fighterpilot 5y agoThere will almost always be plausible deniability. Needs to be banned.
- giantg2 5y ago
- finexplained 5y agoMembers of congress should only be allowed to invest in SPY/VOO, VTI, and a few other broad ETFs, long only, no options.
- prussian 5y agoHonestly, this should be held for any positions where insider information is clearly a conflict. Maybe not in specific instruments, but investments should be made through a third-party money manager.
- beervirus 5y agoThat would be a good start. But it's still problematic for them to sell positions like that on non-public information like news of a new pandemic.
- finexplained 5y agoI agree, it's a start. But importantly it (attempts to) align their interests with the broader US economy. Also it still allows them to invest for their personal futures, which I believe is a right.
- ralusek 5y agoHasn't the last year very clearly demonstrated that the ability to lower interest rates and print money has had far more of an impact on the market than anything else? Stocks are practically moving up and down in unison, the market is almost entirely macroeconomics driven when 40% of all USD was created in the last 12 months. If they can invest in total market indices while having the ability to control the money supply, even if they can just go long, it doesn't matter.
- BrianOnHN 5y agoSounds like overreaching blanket regulation. What if we just regulated the 0.01% who's wealth is such that it makes the top elected officials in our country have a seemingly insignificant compensation.
- elliekelly 5y ago
- barbazoo 5y agoLove that data this is making public but I wish it wasn't always so much blue vs red, Republicans vs Democrats, who is worse, my team or theirs. They're all corrupt to some degree, why make it even more partisan that it already is.
- mattnewton 5y agoI hope the intent was to show this is not necessarily a partisan issue, representatives on both sides of the aisle are clearly engaging in suspiciously successful trades.
- nocommentguy 5y agoYeah but their side actually is much more corrupt. No whataboutism! /s (How does this comment contribute to the discussion? It preempts long partisan threads that derail the conversation which always get kicked off when someone points out it’s all rotten).
- christiansakai 5y agoMeanwhile ordinary people still believe that the war is against their fellow people, in identity politics, religion, sexual orientation etc. Devide et Impera.
- giantg2 5y agoThat's because it's the only war they even have a chance at winning because people in power will at least use them as pawns in their shared interests. They realize they lost the other war long ago and are subjects, not citizens in regards to holding the system itself accountable. Or are in blissful ignorance because it hasn't screwed them... yet.
- reedjosh 5y ago> They realize they lost the other war long ago No, I vote ignorance. Most people don't even realize the current global political landscape is a battle of systems (E.g. Rules Based and China's Belt and Road Initiative). The idea that we're pawns doesn't cross most people's minds. Though I'd agree it may be willful ignorance as the truth not only hurts but is scary.
- giantg2 5y ago"The idea that we're pawns doesn't cross most people's minds." Maybe. The fact that two of us here are even discussing it is something. I know quite a few people who feel this way. But it does usually take at least the witnessing of a blatant violation.
- reedjosh 5y agoI think for me it was just the shear lack of change no matter which politician was in office. From there I started looking for why. At some point I also realized advertisements are purely bribes meant to shackle speech. Once I abandoned ad-funded media, my learning really took off.
- BrianOnHN 5y agoSimilar from yesterday: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26807695 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26807695 HN can't see the forest for the trees. Trading isn't the issue. Why are our top elected officials not compensated enough? Income inequality. If it isn't trading, they'll chase Bezos until they "get what they deserve" one way or another.
- mattnewton 5y agoHonestly some of these trades also seemed small to me; anyone can make a trade that’s up 30% in a year with public information - they can also easily lose as much. It is only problematic when they consistently win by large percentages on the majority of their trades, and this doesn’t appear to do that kind of statistical analysis of average returns?
- BrianOnHN 5y ago> this doesn’t appear to do that kind of statistical analysis of average returns? Exactly, and you had to be really unlucky not to have significant returns over the past year. Has anyone looked at their managed retirement find lately? I wouldn't be surprised if you see 30% even in a medium-risk fund.
- michaelmrose 5y agoOur top officials are compensated to the tune of 174,000 which is 95th percentile. Making people wealthier doesn't make them more honest.
- sakopov 5y agoAre you saying that these insane leveraged trades won't be happening if elected officials are compensated more? That is a preposterous assumption! You're right, trading isn't the issue. Greed and abuse of power are, however.
- the_optimist 5y agoYour theory: If you pay Pelosi more, she'll stop insider trading. On top of her +$100M net worth, where her salary pales in comparison to trading gains. You just have to pay people more so they stop abusing the system. Found the Congressperson here.
- floatingatoll 5y agoIf the author of this site is reading this, you could add a redirect for this URL with either trailing comma or trailing comma-and-whitespace, to catch the cases where people copy a little bit too much to the clipboard: https://unusualwhales.com/i_am_the_senate https://unusualwhales.com/i_am_the_senate,
- kyleblarson 5y agoHow else is Pelosi expected to afford her $20k sub z fridges filled with 13 dollar a pint ice cream?
- ModernMech 5y agoI'm not saying Pelosi isn't fabulously wealthy, nor that she isn't engaged in activities which are unethical to enrich herself; but her fridge and ice cream are not evidence of this. The Speaker of the House makes a quarter million dollars per year. That's more than enough to afford such luxuries. https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/salaries https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/salaries
- thelean12 5y agoIf she only made the 250k, she'd be spending like 12.5% of her yearly take home pay on a fridge. That seems like a little much. ($250k is like $160k take home with her home town taxes. 20/160 = 0.125)
- ModernMech 5y agoFor something designed to last multiple years, why not? I can look in my garage and kitchen at things I've spent 12.5% of my take home on that I expected to last a decade, including my refrigerator. I do not like Nancy Pelosi, but this criticism always seemed like quite a stretch to me.
- thelean12 5y agoAre any of the things in your garage 10-20x the average cost of that thing? That fridge is like the Lamborghini of fridges. I'm not saying buying something that is 12.5% of your take home income is unreasonable. After all, I own a car. I'm saying that buying a fridge at 12.5% of your take home income is unreasonable.
- ModernMech 5y ago
- LB232323 5y agoThis is a really greasy website. It's not the cheesy logo or the fact that they are ripping off other fintech companies, it's that they are selling get rich quick dreams like a scam artist. This article is really an advertisement for their services and it's surprising that it went viral here. They are basically encouraging people to try and cash in on criminal financial activity in congress. I can't put my trust in this site.
- SMAAART 5y agoNot bad! I wish we could have that info in real time!
- hastes 5y agoPelosi makes millions during the 'deadliest pandemic in history' and no one turns an eye. Problem is this will fade away like every single other important topic of these ruling elites, who don't give a single f*k about you or me or any social issues. They are plainly there to shove through their friends interests, profit off of insider information, and get out without going to jail. Every single one of them.
- hackeraccount 5y agowhy doesn't someone create an index fund that just track congressional trades?
- cwkoss 5y agothere is reporting lag, so by the time you know about an opportunity it is usually gone
- macinjosh 5y agoOnly government bureaucracy could convert what is essentially class based market information access into something benign sounding as "reporting lag". Maybe "scraps" is a more apt term?
- magwa101 5y agoThis is brilliant. This should be illegal. CEOs and anyone with insider info have trade "windows", or are put onto "program" trading. This should absolutely be happening to these servants.
- voidfunc 5y agoIf you want to get rich go into politics.
- r00fus 5y agoFixed: if you want to get rich, already be rich. If you want to get into politics, it helps to be rich. Takeaway: just be rich, and you can do whatever you want.
- steveBK123 5y agoOf course if you actually work in financial services industry, your personal trading is extremely restricted. This is regardless of being in no position to see positions/flow/etc that would give you any insider edge. The industry generally sees it as easier to show compliance by having locked down personal trading by employees. Usually this takes the form of - ETFs only, pre-clearance required, 30 day holding periods, limited to using only a list of 5 approved brokers.. and sometimes all of the above. The restrictions apply not just to spouses but to anyone in household, and you have to attest you are reporting any holdings of say.. your parents, if you still live at home. So the mother of a live-at-home college grad tech support analyst who plugs in phones at a bank has more trading restrictions than senior politicians :-)
- Havoc 5y ago> and sometimes all of the above. And you need to grant them access to the broker data feed and no derivatives. It's in part why I'm suddenly into crypto.
- steveBK123 5y agolot of them banning crypto or requiring disclosure as well
- Havoc 5y agoWhy would they? They only restrict me due to concerns about insider info...and I certainly don't know where bitcoin is going tomorrow based on my decidedly non crypto finance day job
- bluecalm 5y agoOne thing that comes to mind is that maybe stock market is to nervous reacting to news. Microsoft isn't worth suddenly 5% more or less depending what some politician says on a given day. I mean insider trading should be illegal especially for real insiders. That I am not arguing. The market just seems to easy too spook and not that efficient to me.
- thepete2 5y agoOne thing I've always wondered: Does the stock market basically consist of insider traders making a profit off of people without that knowledge? I feel like even with immense restrictions on insiders in place, information is so easy to pass on to sb. else, that it should be impossible to prevent this. Heck, I could cough once for buy, twice for sell. Who's going to surveil me and notice that?
- Fat_Thor 5y agoYou legalize insider trading for everyone.
- op00to 5y agoYes, literally.
- RhodoGSA 5y agofor that matter, day trading and technical analysis is literally just insider trading. This chart, based on some analysis of the way it's moved, with no interest in the metrics of the company itself, dictates buy or sell. Every 'Technical Trader' learns these 'indicators' and trades on them. It's just shadow insider trading under the guise of providing 'liquidity' but in reality just contributes to more volatility. Back when the stock market was founded, it was meant as a means of providing a signal of support for a company. It allowed the company to raise debt or financing based on it's stock price or signal of support. You bought company stock because you believed in the fundamentals of the business and you wanted to support it. Now it's just about how i can sell this stock to the bigger sucker, for more money than i bought it for.
- thatguy987 5y agoThat's not what insider trading is. Insider trading is specifically using non-public information about a company to make investment decisions. Technical analysis generally uses only publicly available information; it's finding patterns in those publicly available data that can help you make investment decisions. I'm not saying it's socially useful; just that it is distinct from insider trading.
- paulpauper 5y agothis is the guy who spams literally all of chamath's tweets and everyone else in involved with finance and investing
- ProjectBarks 5y agoI am curious why unusual whales did not compare performance to market performance over set periods. I looked around for some papers and was unable to find anything recent. CATO published a report showing there is weak performance difference between senators and their stock portfolio [1]. If they are outperforming this should 100% be remedied but I'd be open if anyone has comments that would contradict this report? [1] https://www.cato.org/research-briefs-economic-policy/relief-rally-senators-feckless-rest-us-stock-picking https://www.cato.org/research-briefs-economic-policy/relief-...
- paulpauper 5y agohe is selling a subscription. if it actually worked as well as he purports he would do it himself. way easier to collect recurring subs from gullible ppl.
- unholiness 5y agoA lot of justified negativity in this thread. On the flip side, are there any congresspeople who have publicly put all their assets in a blind trust? Any who have advanced bills requiring this of their colleagues? The solution to problems like this is elections, and you would think "My opponent is insider trading while I literally can't" would make a great campaign ad.
- asdev 5y agoThis can be solved by having trading of securities on an open blockchain. Have insiders/government officials sign time locked transactions ahead of time for the entire world to see.
- bugzz 5y agowhat would stop them from using anonymous accounts to trade as well?
- Zelphyr 5y agoUntil we all start holding these people more accountable, and better educating ourselves on the issues, nothing is going to change and they know it. Here is, in particular, what they know: We as a whole despise Congress but somehow manage to convince ourselves that, "My representative is the only one who is honest!" so we re-elect them over and over again. Here is another thing they know: the number of people I know personally who bitch and complain about issues based purely on headlines they've read or heard (note, it's ONLY the headlines. they can't be bothered to actually read the article) is, for me, astounding. In other words; the people don't want to do the work of really educating themselves and the politicians take advantage of that. Let me say it again. Until we educate ourselves and demand that the people we elect be more accountable to us, the people, then they will. not. change.
- adam12 5y agoClear corruption. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNDHiiJaxes https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNDHiiJaxes
- Ansil849 5y agoConflicts of interest with politicians are unfortunately nothing new. Remember several years ago when Pelosi's husband owned Visa stock, while Pelosi was involved in legislation that - had it gone forward, which it did not - would adversely impact Visa? https://www.politico.com/news/stories/1111/67593_Page2.html https://www.politico.com/news/stories/1111/67593_Page2.html
- ffff0ffffff 5y agoHow about we just line up every politician fucking KILL THEM ALL!
- ffff0ffffff 5y agoPelosi is a FUCKING CUNT! FUCK THAT BITCH!
- docflabby 5y agoOnly way to consistently outperform the market is lobbying, insider trading or fraud (see Madoff)
- vmception 5y agoDon't forget about issuing your own stock and bonds. I personally consider that part of my own portfolio. No par value, sold at a higher price.
- kipchak 5y agoDoes anyone use this info for their own trading, particularly the $300 a year plan? You would figure if there's insider trading going on to be watched your performance copying their trades should be pretty good as well.
- vmception 5y agoI don't have a problem with this. Did this really harm your confidence in the markets, or did it only harm your confidence in politicians who have been doing this for hundreds of years whether there was mandatory disclosure or not? Insider trading regulations are based around people feeling willing to use the capital markets at all. People use the US capital markets, so expanding that regulation is not necessary. For the latter observation, I would like there to be quicker reporting so that we can trade alongside it.
- AlexTWithBeard 5y agoThe very minimal thing each and every one of us can do is to write to their representative [1] and senator [2] expressing concern over the issue. [1] https://www.house.gov/representatives/find-your-representative https://www.house.gov/representatives/find-your-representati... [2] https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm
- hartator 5y agoIt will be fun to have an index fund tracking this. Can’t beat the corruption? Just buy their market!
- hmsimha 5y agoThis conclusion in particular is probably something that I've assumed in the past: > On a whole, Democrats seem to love tech and Republicans seem to love oil and gas. But I hadn't really thought about the wide-reaching implications until now; perhaps its more than a coincidence that the current cryptocurrency bull run really took off shortly after Biden won the presidential election.
- foolinaround 5y agoWhere there is a will, there is a way! As long as we have crooks as our representatives, they will find various loopholes to cheat. Caesar’s Wife Must Be Above Suspicion. When we find such folks, since the media won't ask those questions, the constituents must call/write/email their offices and know that they are being watched.
- smooth_remmy 5y agoIsn't there a delay in seeing these trades? They're reported 2 months after they happen, right?
- macinjosh 5y agoI am shocked, shocked to find there is gambling going on in here! /s In all seriousness, if we are talking about privilege this privilege the ruling elite has to participate freely in insider trading behavior is bonkers. It likely just isn't the politicians themselves. Their staffers, confidants, and so on could all be benefiting. If Presidents are goaded to put their assets in blind trusts when taking office why shouldn't principal members of the other two branches of governments be obliged to do the same?
- Sniffnoy 5y agoWhat the hell is with the interface on this site? I can't select text, everything is acting funny...
- WaitWaitWha 5y agoI have a better solution than all these "let's restrict", "let's demand pre-trade disclosure", etc. Term limit them. 12 years total Congress in lifetime. That is two full Senate or six House, or combination thereof. The longer a politician (or bureaucrat) is in a position, the more power they accumulate and the likelihood to forget the purpose of their role.
- Thorentis 5y agoThose evil republicans and their greedy capitalist agenda! Oh wait, both sides do this? Wait, the Democrats do it more?
- person_of_color 5y agoJust ban stock trading by members of Congress, jfc.
- chiefalchemist 5y agoMore importantly, let's not forget that capital gains are taxed at a lower rate than income. How convenient.
- fukmbas 5y agoLol this has literally been going on for decades but you guys only seem to care when a certain party is in control
- bjtitus 5y ago> House members are outperforming market averages Some of the specific cases are compelling but it doesn't seem particularly surprising that one year's worth of relatively spectacular returns in many top sectors results in outperforming the market averages. There are many many people who far outperformed the market averages by the end of 2020.
- aerosmile 5y agoA lot of people here are suggesting that politicians should not be able to own any stock. I am sure that we can agree that the talent follows the money. I also assume we can agree that we need the best and the brightest in our government (as opposed to working at FAANG). My suggestion would be to pay good people a million bucks per year and multiples of that on top of it if they meet their campaign promises. I personally wouldn't mind if our politicians made 10x of what they make today, since that way we would hopefully attract more candidates and end up with better talent. Let's just make sure that the money they make is not driven by corporate interests.
- exabrial 5y agoWhat happened to the FBI? I feel like this is the sort of thing they should be doing.
- Bubbadoo 5y agoElected officials of all stripes and all levels should have the same trading constraints employees of Wall Street banks have: -30 day lockup on all trades -DOJ should be listed as interested party on all House/Senate market participants. Unfortunately, our DOJ has been working on fugazy matters while antitrust laws are ignored and obvious market manipulation offenses by elected officials are of no interes seemingly.
- bane 5y agoIs there an index or ETF that tracks what the House does? I'd love to invest in that.
- someonehere 5y agoDon’t worry everyone. The people who fumbled getting us all the help we needed the last year know what they’re doing. /s