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Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars
- ashtonkem 6y agoWell, yeah. Any sane large car manufacturer knows that you have to make at least a good line of EVs in the near future, otherwise your company is dead. By the by, it’s generally believed that Ford poured money into Rivian with the plan to turn their vehicles into electric trucks.
- ksherlock 6y agoThere was going to be a 2022 Lincoln SUV based on the Rivian platform but that was canceled last year.
- InTheArena 6y agoThe patterns only going to become more pronounced from here on out. My guess is that we’re going to See a electric bulbs style phase out of gasoline engines announced over the next two years. If I’m Ford or GM I’m gonna try and get my hands on some of that sweet sweet tesla speculation cash in the form of a buy out as quickly as possible. Solves the technology platform problems too. If VW couldn’t handle it, why do you think GM or Ford could?
- pmorici 6y agoThe chances that Tesla will buy out a legacy auto company are zero. It makes no sense. They are all saddled with crushing debt loads, dealer networks, and stranded assets. None of them have anything Tesla needs to become the largest car manufacturer in history by 2030.
- nickik 6y agoThere are so many more issues. They have lots of plants that Tesla doesn't need or want. Even worse, you can't close down those plants because of unions and politics. Tesla doesn't want unions in general. Battery being the limiting factor means that having more ability to produce cars is basically useless.
- rswail 6y agoThe fact that "Tesla doesn't want unions in general" is a sad anti-pattern. Unions are the way that labor negotiates with capital on an equal basis. The fact that the US has a badly flawed labor market where things that shouldn't be tied to employment (eg healthcare, pensions/retirement) are still tied to employment, is a bug, not a feature. Tesla will not be able to avoid "unions" if they manufacture in Europe. Neither will they be able to avoid standard employer contributions in the form of taxation and employment benefits, like minimum paid vacation and sick leave, etc.
- mcot2 6y agoTesla gives almost all their factory workers stock. I think that’s worked out well. https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-giga-berlin-starting-wages-revealed/ https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-giga-berlin-starting-wages-r...
- nickik 6y agoI was just explaining why Tesla will not buy other car makers in the US.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- friedman23 6y agoThis kind of uninformed negativity is why I'm loaded up on GM calls. GM btw, has no debt (at least in the way you are thinking).
- totalZero 6y agoIf there is a cash takeout, the IV will go down. If there is a share component to a hypothetical acquisition, the IV will potentially increase. However, I'm not sure how likely that is. Just be aware that your Vega p&l could be negative, so extremely long dated calls with a lot of Vega may need a big gap between a cash takeout price and spot in order to be profitable.
- rlonn 6y agoThis reads like finance buzz bingo
- totalZero 6y agoI'm just saying that long-dated calls can lose money in a cash acquisition.
- friedman23 6y agoI'm already up 200% on my $150k bet. The IV was basically nothing a month ago.
- pmorici 6y agoYeah I’m sure Tesla is just chomping at the bit to take on a debt portfolio backed by ICE vehicle loans and leases. The assets underlying all that debt are going to have a drastic revaluation as electric takes over. I would bet on a GM bankruptcy within 5 years. GM is blackberry it’s 2008.
- pokerhobo 6y agoGM has about $100B in debt https://www.benzinga.com/news/20/09/17407586/a-look-into-general-motorss-debt#/:~:text=General%20Motors's%20Debt%20According%20to%20the%20General%20Motors’s,company%20has%20a%20net%20debt%20of%20$98.94%20billion https://www.benzinga.com/news/20/09/17407586/a-look-into-gen.... Help me understand how I’m misinterpreting this.
- SOLAR_FIELDS 6y agoI think you are more right than wrong in your prediction, but “over the next two years” seems so incredibly optimistic that I’m inclined to call it naïveté instead.
- cookiengineer 6y agoLots of European countries joined the law that makes fossil fuel burning engines obsolete starting 2030. So he might be right when he says the next two years, because in 5 years it will have been too late already :)
- gbear605 6y agoUnless I’m mistaken, that law is for new cars being sold, not existing cars, which just means that they need to have transitioned by then. Obviously it can’t be left to the last minute, but it also doesn’t have to be the next two years (at least for those specific legal issues).
- ogre_codes 6y agoWithin 4 years, Tesla is going to be selling EVs for $25k. The Cybertruck is 18-24 months out. Rivian is going to be launching their electric truck in the next 18 months as well. That puts Ford's front line vehicle squarely in the headlights. If Ford can't mass produce EVs at a reasonable price in the next 2 years, things are going get increasingly ugly for them. Not end of line in 2 years, but it's just going to get harder to catch up as Tesla and the rest ramp up manufacturing capacity and capture the market. The big problem for Ford/ GM/ Dodge, and all the rest of the latecomers is sourcing batteries. Tesla has spent most of the past 10 years building up capacity and looking in supply while the rest of the auto-makers need to outsource supply in an increasingly competitive market.
- clouddrover 6y ago> Within 4 years, Tesla is going to be selling EVs for $25k. GM is selling EVs for $25k right now. The Chevy Bolt probably is the best EV for the money in the world today. The Renault Zoe and the VW ID.3 are not too far off that price and are strong sellers in Europe. A smaller battery version of the ID.3 is coming out this year.
- axaxs 6y agoI simply don't agree. What the old companies have are billions of man hours of experience and engineering. Tesla has cool new tech, but keeps falling apart on things Ford or GM solved 40 years ago. I'm not saying one or the other is better, but it's not like buying some dead useless company.
- ogre_codes 6y agoGM and Ford have billions of man hours assembling cars... and a super-tight battery supply chain they share with every other car maker scrambling to secure battery supplies right now. They can assemble the fuck out of those car parts, but in the end they are cranking out expensive cars with crappy range because they have no reliable battery source. Tesla has spent the past 15 years getting their battery supply chain squared away. You think GM and Ford are going to pull that out of their ass tomorrow?
- axaxs 6y agoNo of course not. I guess I meant they could use each others' experience. And it's not about simply assembling things. Ford and GM have tons of engineering and experience on hand.
- chii 6y agoIt depends on whether the battery sourcing and assembly is a harder problem than car assembly. The reason, may be, why Tesla had a lot of issues is that they are blazing a new trail. Now that it's been shown that batteries are viable to make at scale, the capital will be available, and it's just sourcing mines and raw materials. I fail to believe Tesla can monopolize the world entire supply.
- ogre_codes 6y agoCapital is there. But that capacity isn't going to come online over-night. "Just sourcing mines"... the capacity for raw materials doesn't exist. New mines have to be dug. That means acquiring property with materials, permitting, sourcing equipment to dig the mines, digging the material, building refining equipment, building factories to package the batteries. All of this takes time to bring online. I'm not saying capacity will never exist, but for the next 5-10 years, auto manufacturers are going to be fighting for as much lithium and battery raw materials as they can get their hands on. Tesla has a handle on this, Ford doesn't. How many years is it going to take for that capacity to come online while Ford/ GM/ etc bleed market share?
- imtringued 6y agoVW is a market leader for EVs in Europe. I would like to know what VW couldn't handle because it's not obvious from your comment. You left a lot of ambiguity.
- seibelj 6y agoEVs make sense but at this point self driving cars are fantasy vaporware. Executives should be tired of embarrassing themselves in public with grand pronouncements of “just 6 more months!” by this point.
- whimsicalism 6y agoFantasy vaporware that I still routinely see driving past my house.
- kcb 6y agoEveryone quickly move the goalposts.
- Hypx 6y agoIf you mean a car without a driver and outside of a geofenced area, you definitely have not seen one before.
- whimsicalism 6y agoI don't know if I'm in a "geofenced area." I live in San Francisco, I routinely see self driving cars.
- vel0city 6y agoCan I hop in one of those geo-fenced cars and have it drive me to Las Vegas? How about staying in state lines, can it drive me to Sacramento? Monterrey? Santa Cruz?
- Hypx 6y agoI'm guessing that's Cruise Automation. They talked about driverless cars in specific neighborhoods, but I haven't anything formally happening on that front. So they're either still using drivers or it's geofenced.
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- agleason 6y agoI really love the F-150 and it's size, but I don't need all the power it comes with and would love it to be a little more fuel efficient. I realize the coming hybrid model is going to be a fortune more than the non hybrid, but I am curious how expensive an all-electric model will be.
- pmorici 6y agoThe CyberTruck starts at $39,900. Ford has to be in that ballpark to compete if they want to remain a going concern.
- alphabettsy 6y agoJust like the Model 3 is $35k ;)
- pmorici 6y agoThey stopped offering the 35k model because most people opted for the SR+ at 38,800
- alphabettsy 6y agoSure, but it wasn’t available at launch and now it doesn’t exist. I don’t have much faith in the 40k Cybertruck being widely or readily available based on that. It’s not really a dig at Tesla. Ford makes an F-150 that costs less than $30k, but most sold outside of fleets are higher trims and packed with options.
- bushbaba 6y agoBecause there was never a viable Tesla 35k car that made sense to buy.
- reissbaker 6y agoAlright, so then $43k to compete, given typical Elon Musk numbers. Still a hard bar!
- prostoalex 6y agoIt seems like I’ve seen this movie before. A large automotive consortium puts out an optimistic press release announcing its full commitment to EVs https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1086902_volkswagen-will-be-the-biggest-electric-car-maker-in-2018-it-says https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1086902_volkswagen-will... Then it turns out that the primary cost contributor to an EV is the cost of batteries. Automakers being relative nobodies on the lithium market, they are paying retail for it and passing the mark-ups to you, the consumer. At that point compromises must be made, and the announced vehicles advertise either an unimpressive range or some atrocious price sticker or both. The market compares the $/mile-of-total-tange, at which point Tesla emerges as being fairly competitive on price. The large company discontinues the vehicle lineup, citing overrun cost issues and market disinterest for EVs save for a few Tesla fanboy diehards.
- cookiengineer 6y agoThis so much sounds like all the PR stunt cars that renault put out. You literally have to lease a battery on top of the absurd prices, and you cannot get it changed for free, even when you lease it. Which makes all their cars basically useless after a year of usage, because the batteries are embedded in their chassis. Every time I compare European manufacturers to Tesla and Nissan, they are such a bad joke. Nissan has so much experience with its Leaf models, and they are dirt cheap, repairable and they work. High-end spectrum buyers will buy an all-inclusive Tesla anyways, and they won't care as much about cheap repairability. Teslas are sadly not made for repairs, so they aren't the right car for me :(
- nickik 6y agoWhat are you even talking about. Nissan sales have collapsed, the Leaf went from one of the most sold cars to small program and is being discontinued in many places. Nissan has the Ariya coming out but not much beyond, their announced targets for electrification are embracingly bad compared to basically every other auto-maker. VWG and Renault are outselling Nissan by 2-3x in terms of BEV. And you don't have to lease the battery. The Renault Zoe is the second most sold EV in Europe. And I'm not sure what you mean by Tesla are not made to be repaired', that not the case. Tesla doesn't deliver parts as fast as other manufacturers but there is nothing inherent that makes it hard to repair.
- jeffbee 6y agoIf this strikes you as a lot of money, consider that the big three cloud operators are spending one hundred billion per year on capital.
- camjohnson26 6y agoIt’s also more than half Ford’s market cap
- Sherl 6y agoI wish auto manufacturers focused on extending EV range then FSD. the buzz so much but nobody is bothered about bringing extended range to masses. People who want entry level ev can't sit for 40 minutes every week at a supercharger.
- pmorici 6y agoAptera seems like it could be pretty interesting in this regard.
- ogre_codes 6y agoTesla's base Model 3 has solid range. Maybe that's not "entry level", they are working on a lower priced car too. Regardless, few people with electric cars are waiting 40 minutes every week. Most charge at home and only hit charging on long trips.
- woeirua 6y agoI leased a 2020 Leaf last year due to the killer deals. I went with the S-Plus for the extra range. Now driving it around for a few months, I’d rather go with the lower range model because: 1- cost, 2-I’ve found that 99% of my driving falls within 75 miles, and 3-charging infrastructure is improving quickly. If you’re going to do long distance road trips or drive for Uber or something then you should probably buy a Hybrid. Otherwise, 150 miles feels pretty good to me, 250 is almost overkill.
- Ralo 6y agoI've been a car guy since my teens, and have nearly everyone around me be some sort of mechanic but I've wondered a couple things about why electric vehicles will have mass appeal. Most electric vehicles seem to have their value based in the battery pack, but these batteries packs have a life span of 10~ years, right? Do these vehicles have zero value after ten years (assuming the batteries are bad then), high mileage or not? I managed to save thousands of dollars in high school/university just driving a beater and fixing it as stuff broke, but an electric vehicle isn't something that can be casually repaired right? Even if in 20-30 years when parts are cheap and plentiful, you need to be a skilled engineer (or at least highly trained) to do these repairs right? When the world is swapped to electric vehicles, can our grid handle that? and if so, why wouldn't our local governments be increasing our electric bills? I cannot see how it would be cheaper than gas, sure some charging stations are free now because it niche, but it wont be in the future. I'm not against electric vehicles, but I just see this hurting low-income people.
- aerovistae 6y agoThat far into the future cars will most likely be autonomous. there isn't really any point to speculating that far out, who knows what could happen. Look at 2020....
- jdxcode 6y agoOr 1894 when people predicted the death of urban cities due to horse manure: https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofBritain/Great-Horse-Manure-Crisis-of-1894/ https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofBritain/Great...
- camjohnson26 6y agoSelf driving cars are today’s flying cars, always 5 years away.
- acover 6y agoI'm not an expert but there is data for your question. They don't have 0 value. Tesla's usually still have above 90% capacity at 250,000 km [0]. That's still a usable car. Further tesla has stated old car batteries are still useful for grid electricity. [0] https://electrek.co/2020/06/06/tesla-battery-degradation-replacement/ https://electrek.co/2020/06/06/tesla-battery-degradation-rep...
- dragosmocrii 6y agoWhat are your favorite battery related stocks? Lithium mining companies? I've been reading on solid state batteries to find some new trends, but it seems they are using same composition as lithium ion technology.
- totalZero 6y agoALB and SQM are two of the big boys. Can't say either is my favorite but I am long an upside butterfly on ALB. Not a fan of SQM because of nepotism and bribery at the top. Seems like a really underdeveloped sector. I don't think people realize how earth-shatteringly huge lithium is about to be.
- PhantomGremlin 6y agoI don't think people realize how earth-shatteringly huge lithium is about to be. I've previously heard the lithium story. I've also read that it doesn't take all that much lithium to build a EV battery. If it were that precious then they would be recycling the lithium from old batteries, but they aren't. And there are tons of new lithium supply just around the corner. I don't really know any of that for sure. Just a feeling I get from keeping not-so-close tabs on the industry.
- mcot2 6y agoNickel is a lot more of a limiting factor than Lithium. This is straight from the horses mouth (Elon). See the recent news about Indonesia. Elon is always a step or two ahead.
- Animats 6y agoThey slipped another year? "During its announcement, Ford also reminded us that the electric version of its cash cow, the F-150, is slated to go into production in mid-2022. Not the 2022 model year, which begins in September of 2021. Jeep pulled that stunt. 2018: “In addition to the all-new mild hybrid Wrangler, a full plug in electric Jeep Wrangler will be available in 2020”. That slipped to 2022. Worse, "2022 will introduce electric powertrain that will be available exclusively on the Rubicon trim level.", which means paying at least 75% more. I was ready to buy one of those. My existing Jeep Wrangler is coming up on 15 years. But no. They're pushing "mild hybrids" this year, which will be obsolete before they are fully debugged.
- ogre_codes 6y agoWell their competition has slipped too, Musk said they would be "Lucky" if the Cybertruck starts shipping in 2021 and doesn't expect it to ship in volume until 2022. Assuming they both stay on schedule from here, that means Ford is likely only 6 months behind Tesla. Rivian is still scheduled for July of this year.
- laut 6y agoThe Wrangler 4xe is a plug-in hybrid and began production last year. That car is featured on the US website too. Jeep also has the Renegade 4xe and Compass 4xe. All plug-in hybrids. Fiat might not have brought them to the US yet.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- rswail 6y agoHas anyone noticed that Ford and GM have made commitments to EV just after the change of administration? Given that the new administration has already committed to moving the Federal fleet to EVs and is going "all in" on full commitment to reducing emissions, this is positioning by the auto manufacturers. There is also now alignment between the Californian emission standards and the Federal government, which means that there is going to be downward pressure on the auto manufacturers overall emission profile. CAFE standard excluded "trucks" which is why the F150 etc are the "best sellers". If there was a move to include them in the overall emission standards, the move to EV would be substantially accelerated. Just like Shell and others in the oil/energy markets are realigning, so to are the primary manufacturers of emissions generating technology.
- mcot2 6y agoYes but at least Ford didn’t lobby against the California standards as heavily as GM did during the Trump years.
- Hypocritelefty 6y agoThis definitely exposes the Tesla shills on hacker news lol lol
- adflux 6y agoProbably have someone shares, a tesla, or a poster of musk hanging in their bedroom.
- nikolay 6y agoElectric cars - I get it... but who would in their right mind let their Ford drive itself?! Why is the self-driving a thing mostly in America? Don't people here enjoy driving? If they don't, why not focus on the more economical and environmentally-friendly mass transit instead? In Europe, people get a car and get behind the wheel, because they enjoy the experience, not because it gets them in the most efficient way from point A to point B. Or maybe in the last 20+ years I've been living in the States things have changed back in Europe?
- wiether 6y agoAverage trip length is about ~12km[1] (we are talking about Europe so no weird units, sorry not sorry) and 22mn. That's about 33kmh, less than most speed limits within the cities. What it means is that most car trips are short and slow. I consider myself as someone who likes to drive. But I don't own a car because most of my trips (done on my bicycle) are done in the city where I know I'm more efficient on my bike than if I was driving. So to me, self-driving cars are of little to no interest because when I drive, it's for trips longer than 100km and at an average speed around 100kmh, and I want to take the wheel and have manual gears. But when I talk to people that drives daily, they mostly agree on the fact that they hate driving, because their trips are short and slow. But they hate even more "the people", so they dont want to use mass transit. And for them, self-driving is appealing because it means they can still travel in their private bubble, but instead of having to be concentrated on what surronds them to avoid crash or having issues with the law, they can do whatever they want : sleeping, watching Netflix... [1] : https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/bitstream/JRC83304/tch-d2.1_final.pdf https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/bitstream/J... Tables 4.22 & 4.23
- nikolay 6y agoI'm sure hiring a taxi will have the same benefits and it will end up being cheaper and even more convenient when you consider all the costs and hassles, which including parking in these short trip situations, insurance, rapid depreciation, maintenance, etc. The issue with mass transit is always the last mile, but foldable lightweight e-scooters and mini e-bikes can solve it.
- kukabynd 6y agoThey should have done that in 2012, not in 2021. Incumbents are too comfy.