14 ms·

An Uncommon Cold

158 points by js2 6y ago

jerome-jh 6y ago
I heard "common colds" are more widespread in winter because: - viruses involved tend to remain active longer in colder air - interior air is renewed less frequently in winter, increasing the likelihood to encounter the virus But there is still this very common belief that we get ill by getting cold in a physical sense, while e.g. being outside with not warm enough clothes. Is it that being exposed to cold air makes out defenses in the lungs or nose less efficient? Is it that we are cold because we actually start developing the illness for which we were infected a few days ago? Or is it just a cognitive bias and only the two factors cited above play a role?
- nicbou 6y ago
  I got curious, because I got a cold or something similar after walking in the snow with wet boots for a few kilometres. It's the second time it happens to me. From what I gather, that makes you more vulnerable to viral and bacterial infections. Adding to that, people spend more time in enclosed spaces in the winter, making exposure more likely.
  - legerdemain 6y ago
    It's easily observable that colds are more common in winter (at least in temperate climates where winter is the cold season). I've just always had trouble buying the argument that "people spend more time in enclosed spaces" in winter. At least not a degree significant enough to make a difference. I go to an office and spend the same amount of time in it in the winter and in the summer. Employees at meatpacking plants and Starbucks baristas don't get to work outside in the summertime. Children still go to school, their school days are just as long, and they don't have classes outside even if the weather allows it. You still have to walk the dog, whether it's summer or winter. All the outdoor activities that are easier to do in warmer weather just don't seem to be universal enough to explain effects on a whole population. Most people spend very little time hiking outdoors. As a fraction of the total number of people in the entire country, the number of people who play tennis outdoors is probably tiny. Drinking at the bar versus drinking on an outdoor patio barely seems worth mentioning. Maybe the cold epidemics are driven by agricultural workers who stay indoors in winter? At least they're pretty numerous, there are more of them than there are tennis players...
    - maelito 6y ago
      > I go to an office and spend the same amount of time in it in the winter and in the summer. Employees at meatpacking plants and Starbucks baristas don't get to work outside in the summertime. Children still go to school, their school days are just as long, and they don't have classes outside even if the weather allows it. You still have to walk the dog, whether it's summer or winter. This is very different in my case (France). In the summer, windows are often open, which suffice to make a big difference I believe, work and home. Never in winter. In summer, half or our work meals are eaten outside or in well ventilated restaurants. Winter -> at most you walk fast 2 minutes to get in a hot building again. Social activites are all closed rooms in winter.
      - legerdemain 6y ago
        Ah! What a fascinating world. The parts of the US that I am familiar with make extremely widespread use of indoor climate control. Many buildings, such as offices and schools, have windows that barely open or don't open at all. And even if the weather permits you to eat outdoors, there usually isn't enough public space where you could do it comfortably and safely. I guess you could drive to a restaurant and then eat in your car with the windows rolled down.
        graeme 6y ago
        Notably the US had high summer covid cases in the AC belt, in contrast to the northeast and also in contrast to canada and europe, where hermetically sealed environments are less common. I’d be curious to know what flu and cold season is like in the south. There may also be seasonal changes to hvac systems in milder climates. They all have varying degrees of recirculation vs bringing in outside air. If you are running heavy ac or heavy heating, it costs more to bring in outside air. So there may be seasonal variations in recirculation settings even within the same sealed environment. I’m less confident on this point though as I don’t know hvac’s very well and they are supposed to filter viruses.
    - maxerickson 6y ago
      Humidity factors into how long many viruses can remain viable. Covid lasts longer in dryer air. Beach trips, playgrounds, etc probably do add up.
  - jerome-jh 6y ago
    Not that I want to contradict your experience, it is actually very common. But I would truly be interested in knowing the causality relationship between having the feet wet and cold and having a "common cold", that is an infection of the nose/sinuses/throat/lungs.
    - lultimouomo 6y ago
      It has been suggested that cold reduces flow in the nasal blood vessels and this hinders immune response, giving the virus a foothold for infecting the organism. I read a study about a bunch of people being left with their feet in a pool of cold water and it showed an increased infection rate vs the control group, but I don't remember how significant and I cannot find it anymore.
    - kijin 6y ago
      Your feet have a large blood supply and a large surface area. Getting your feet wet is a very effective way to lower your body temperature.
- maelito 6y ago
  My bet is that "interior air is renewed less frequently" makes most of the effects. It doesn't look hard to test experimentally.
- DownGoat 6y ago
  >> But there is still this very common belief that we get ill by getting cold in a physical sense, while e.g. being outside with not warm enough clothes. This is kinda true, the body produce mucus (snot) in the nasal passages. Microbes sticks to this, and when swallowed are neutralized by our stomach acid. But cold air slows down this process, so our first line of defence doesn't work as well during winter. There are also factors such as behaviour changes like spending more time indoors, closed windows and a lot of other stuff that also likely helps spread infections.
  - kijin 6y ago
    I think there are multiple factors, each of which only increases R by a little bit, but when combined produce a noticeable increase. Lack of ventilation is certainly a major factor. The temperature difference between indoors and outdoors is much larger in the winter, so people are more reluctant to let in fresh air. We also don't wash winter clothes as often as we do summer clothes, so viruses that stick to fabric might have more chances to get into our bodies. Homes and public spaces get cleaned less often, too, as they don't feel as sticky and smelly as they do in the summer. Ditto for our own hands, which is probably more important that any of the other factors mentioned here. In the United States, two of the largest mass migration and shopping events of the year take place in the early to mid-winter: Thanksgiving and Christmas. In China, COVID-19 began to spread in earnest outside of Wuhan around Chinese New Year. Even societies that don't have a special holiday in the wintertime might be impacted by cascading infections from those that do.
- samizdis 6y ago
  I posted this article a week ago, but it went almost unnoticed: You Don’t Get Colds from Being Cold https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25572907 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25572907
  - jerome-jh 6y ago
    Should I summarize the article, cold (low temperature) has no relation with being infected: two groups of people inoculated with a virus, one with wet suits in a cold environment, the other in a normal environment, develop a cold (the disease) at equal rate. Being in cold weather causes the same symptoms as "having a cold": teary eyes, runny nose and chills. The article postulates this is the root of the belief that cold weather causes "common cold".
Torkel 6y ago
Interesting article, I didn’t know all common colds were once deadly epidemics but it seems logical thinking about it. I wonder if the rna vaccines brought out for covid will be applied to more and more viruses. Seems like a path towards eradication of all viral diseases.
- legerdemain 6y ago
  Note that the article does not advance the claim that "all common colds were once deadly epidemics."
- highmastdon 6y ago
  Is this something we should wish for? It’s my understanding that for SARS-CoV-2 a lot of people seem to have t-cell immunity because they’ve been infected with other families of coronavirus. Correct me if I’m wrong but wouldn’t vaccinating against all of the coronavirusus prevent this from happening? Thus, eradication of all viruses would result in a new virus being much more deadly in a population when no one has had a “previous” less deadly “version”
  - keithwhor 6y ago
    There's very little functional difference between being immune to a virus because of previous infection and being immune to a virus because of vaccination. The latter basically co-opts the body's response to the former to generate a lasting adaptive defense.
    - ibn-alfatal 6y ago
      That is old definition, now in accordance to the new definition immunity can only be achieved through vaccination. https://twitter.com/simondolan/status/1341306917076021248 https://twitter.com/simondolan/status/1341306917076021248
      - detaro 6y ago
        A random Q&A page is not "a new definition" as an universal standard. Also, quoting from that page today https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-covid-19-serology https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease... > 'Herd immunity', also known as 'population immunity', is the indirect protection from an infectious disease that happens when a population is immune either through vaccination or immunity developed through previous infection. WHO supports achieving 'herd immunity' through vaccination, not by allowing a disease to spread through any segment of the population, as this would result in unnecessary cases and deaths.
baxtr 6y ago
The idea that all now common corona viruses started a pandemic sounds very plausible. At the same time, it makes the fact that there is a huge corona virus reservoir in bats very frightening.
- almost_usual 6y ago
  There are likely more reservoirs at this point. The coronavirus is showing up in species all over the planet, this virus is everywhere now. The spread only increases the probability of more mutations and variants. I can’t imagine a future without it.
  - legerdemain 6y ago
    There is no "the coronavirus." The article mentions at least nine or ten different ones. There are dozens of coronaviruses.
    - baxtr 6y ago
      Yes exactly. I meant there is a huge reservoir of various corona viruses in bats.
  - pengaru 6y ago
    Bats are unique when it comes to mammallian viral reservoirs, due to being the only flying mammals. IIRC their immune system evolved to essentially tolerate foreign/damaged DNA because the heat caused by their flight would regularly damage cells. So viruses can basically move in and make themselves comfortable.
    - DoingIsLearning 6y ago
      I hope this doesn't come across as inhumane, but hypothetically what would be the bio-diversity/eco-system impact of simply exterminating or at least curbing these huge bat colonies. I mean technically we already have a precedent with trying to stop mosquito reproduction to curb malaria and other mosquito transmitted diseases. I understand that from a virology standpoint there is a lot to learn from bats and that they have an insanely robust immune system but is it really reasonable to allow these colonies to thrive unchecked with thousands of bats tightly packed together? It's just that it seems the most recent threats Ebola, MERS, SARS-Cov1, now SARS-Cov2, all seem to have had a bat colony as it's genetic origin.
Trasmatta 6y ago
One side effect of following COVID precautions is that I haven't had a cold at all this year. Usually I have 3 or 4 a year. I'm wondering if I'll get them less even after COVID, due to being more cognizant of stuff like washing my hands and not touching my face. Hopefully all this will also normalize more people staying home or wearing a mask if they feel sick.
- kmonsen 6y ago
  I started to take d vitamin when Covid started and was wondering if that is why I have not had a cold this year. But most likely it is the social distancing.
  - highmastdon 6y ago
    I started taking vitamin d when I started my professional life as a software engineer after my studies. I had a minor winter depression, and I’ve never stopped taking. Since then I’ve had no colds at all. Of course this is anecdotal, but I think a LOT of people in western society could benefit from taking 2000-4000 IU daily throughout the year
    - internet_user 6y ago
      vitamin D deficiency is rampant. head of cardiology at one of the most renowned hospitals takes 5000 IU daily, been for decades.
      - HighlandSpring 6y ago
        Don't hesitate to take 10-15k a day for an initial period of couple weeks if you think you might be deficient. Vitamin D requirements are notoriously understated and the supplements underdosed
      - lostlogin 6y ago
        I think that copying the behaviour of hospital department heads could lead to propagation of some truely idiosyncratic behaviour.
nradov 6y ago
Assuming that HCoV-OC43 caused the 1889 pandemic, it killed about 0.06% of the world population. By comparison COVID-19 has so far killed about 0.02% of the world population.
- almost_usual 6y ago
  I don’t think many ICUs or vents were around in 1889.
  - nradov 6y ago
    Even if we had zero ICUs or ventilators the COVID-19 fatality rate would only be marginally higher. The vast majority of patients who are going to survive will do so regardless of whether they receive ICU level care. The current care protocol recommends mechanical ventilation only as a last resort. Most of the effective treatments can be delivered at lower care levels. https://www.evms.edu/media/evms_public/departments/internal_medicine/EVMS_Critical_Care_COVID-19_Protocol.pdf https://www.evms.edu/media/evms_public/departments/internal_...
    - graeme 6y ago
      That protocol (MATH+) has received wide marketing but it’s not obviously correct. Paul Marik, the creator, was previously known for some promising studies on vitamin C in hospital care that ultimately didn’t pan put. But he doubled down on it, including in this protocol. Am not a doctor, just repeating what I read doctors saying.
    - littlestymaar 6y ago
      IIRC from a study in French hospitals, one in three people being ventilated died. Without ventilation, these people would have died with almost 100% certainty (that what “last resort” means BTW), so without ventilation we would have around 3 times more death. Furthermore, in the 19th century, they had no access to antibiotics, so a significant amount of the deaths has probably be caused by bacterial infection on top of the viral one (like what happened with the Spanish flu). On the other hand, the world population was way younger at that time, so Covid19 would have caused fewer sever cases back then.
jfoster 6y ago
"It may continue to cause severe illnesses for some years yet, especially among older people." What's behind this being raised as a possibility? Is it just that some older people may not be suitable for vaccination, or not accept vaccination, or is there something else?
- almost_usual 6y ago
  “In the longer term, virologists cannot predict how SARS-CoV-2 will evolve.” I read this as there’s no reason the virus can’t mutate and render a vaccine ineffective.
  - cortesoft 6y ago
    Wonder if it will end up like the flu, where we have to make a new vaccine every year to deal with that years strains.
    - astrange 6y ago
      The flu has special mechanisms that let it evolve every year and change its outer proteins. Coronaviruses don't, and they mutate more slowly because they have a proofreader.
- graeme 6y ago
  Not an expert, but my guess is a lower immune response to the vaccine in older patients.
- wozer 6y ago
  The article is from May 2020 when vaccination was still a somewhat distant possibility.
cmason 6y ago
I knew that bats are often the source of zoonotic viral transmission, but not why bats are such persistent and effective reservoirs of virus. This article (and the linked review) does a pretty good job of explaining why: that bats more finely modulate their immune response and thus “tolerate” viral infection over long periods. The article then speculates that various environmental stressors reduce immunity and induce heightened viral shedding, ultimately leading to spillover. Long but an interesting read https://knowablemagazine.org/article/health-disease/2020/why-do-bats-have-so-many-viruses https://knowablemagazine.org/article/health-disease/2020/why...
tempestn 6y ago
So now that we have proven covid vaccines, is there any chance of them being adapted to treat these other coronaviruses? If four viruses make up ~25% of common colds, knocking those out could have a significant impact on quality of life and productivity. (After dealing with COVID-19, of course.)
- UncleSlacky 6y ago
  For the mRNA type vaccines, apparently the RNA string payload can be easily "reprogrammed" within the generic "platform" provided by the vaccine.
  - tempestn 6y ago
    Yeah, I've read that. So it certainly seems like it would be possible. I wonder if it's something that would actually happen though, or if minor viruses just aren't considered worth it.
cies 6y ago
The abstract says: > The covid-19 virus isn't the first coronavirus to jump from animals to humans. What can we learn from previous encounters But we don't. We're heavily to addicted to animal products. Not only on individual level (i'm vegan and it's bizarre to see how people are clinging to "their" animal product indulgence, many straight up admit it is cruel and unnecessary), but also institutionalized (subsidies for animal farms, animal feed products, gov't paid advertising campaigns, etc.). This covid is an animal abuser's disease. It's about time (or long overdue as we can read in this article) we revisit our relations to the animal kingdom.
- baby 6y ago
  Sci-fi thought: if everybody was vegan we’d have a crazy plant-based industry that would do crazy thing to scale and we would start having plant-based diseases.
  - gregschlom 6y ago
    You're describing modern agriculture, with all the issues around pesticide use, soil erosion, cutting down forests to plant crops, etc...
    - cies 6y ago
      > cutting down forests to plant crops And then feeding most of that crop produce to our livestock. Eating plants directly solves the problem: we'd have abundance.
      - earthboundkid 6y ago
        Wouldn’t population just increase until we’re back where we are now?
        cies 6y ago
        If we need less crop produce (because we dont need to feed the live stock) then the crop produce related pollution will decrease by the same factor, right? No also consider all the pollution from the live stock (which is huge! see the documentary Cowspiracy or Dominion for details). A lot of pollution come directly or indirectly from animal produce. I count CO2, NOx, phosphor, methane, water use/pollution/acidification, land use/pollution/acidification. It's said that it is one of the most polluting industries, up there with transport and residential heating/cooling.
not_a_moth 6y ago
> The covid-19 virus isn't the first coronavirus to jump from animals to humans Sigh, while controversial to state, there has of yet been no refutation of the lab leak hypothesis presented by scientists like Brett Weinstein [1] [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5SRrsr-Iug https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5SRrsr-Iug Wanting to discuss virus origins should not be political or knee jerk censored. At the very surface, natural origins next to a P4 lab doing gain of function coronavirus research is already asking a lot from us.
- saiya-jin 6y ago
  Wasn't this inspected by leading virus scientists and concluded that its way different to anything that lab ever found and there is no current technology to modify it so much? The lab isn't secretive about its stash of viruses they find in the wild IIRC. I recall reading some interview with lead scientist in this lab few weeks ago someplace but can't find it now.
  - astrange 6y ago
    It's impossible to prove they didn't randomly mutate a virus until it reached its current state, so people who want a conspiracy theory are already falling back to that, Russell's teapot style. But there's also no reason to care if they did or not.
    - sillycon-valley 6y ago
      > But there's also no reason to care if they did or not. I would liken it to Chernobyl if they did accidentally release it. If it wasn't natural then it could have been prevented, including the 2 million dead.
    - earthboundkid 6y ago
      No reason to care? If SARS-CoV-2 is a lab accident, the labs need to be shut down and heavily regulated before reopening if ever. There is plenty of reason to care. Will we ever know for sure one way or the other? That seems less likely. If it is an accident, China will hide it forever. If it’s not, it will be hard to prove unless you find the intermediary host somehow.
xenocratus 6y ago
It's interesting to note that the peak death rate for Spanish Flu was for ages around 28 which represents the infants born around the time of the Russian Flu. There might be some causation there along the lines of "being exposed to a potent flu in infancy leads to a dysregulated immune response for new strains" [1]. Maybe there are studies out there looking at this in the case of Covid, already? [1] https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0069586 https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal...

158 points by js2 6y ago

I heard "common colds" are more widespread in winter because: - viruses involved tend to remain active longer in colder air - interior air is renewed less frequently in winter, increasing the likelihood to encounter the virus But there is still this very common belief that we get ill by getting cold in a physical sense, while e.g. being outside with not warm enough clothes. Is it that being exposed to cold air makes out defenses in the lungs or nose less efficient? Is it that we are cold because we actually start developing the illness for which we were infected a few days ago? Or is it just a cognitive bias and only the two factors cited above play a role?

nicbou 6y ago
I got curious, because I got a cold or something similar after walking in the snow with wet boots for a few kilometres. It's the second time it happens to me. From what I gather, that makes you more vulnerable to viral and bacterial infections. Adding to that, people spend more time in enclosed spaces in the winter, making exposure more likely.
- legerdemain 6y ago
  It's easily observable that colds are more common in winter (at least in temperate climates where winter is the cold season). I've just always had trouble buying the argument that "people spend more time in enclosed spaces" in winter. At least not a degree significant enough to make a difference. I go to an office and spend the same amount of time in it in the winter and in the summer. Employees at meatpacking plants and Starbucks baristas don't get to work outside in the summertime. Children still go to school, their school days are just as long, and they don't have classes outside even if the weather allows it. You still have to walk the dog, whether it's summer or winter. All the outdoor activities that are easier to do in warmer weather just don't seem to be universal enough to explain effects on a whole population. Most people spend very little time hiking outdoors. As a fraction of the total number of people in the entire country, the number of people who play tennis outdoors is probably tiny. Drinking at the bar versus drinking on an outdoor patio barely seems worth mentioning. Maybe the cold epidemics are driven by agricultural workers who stay indoors in winter? At least they're pretty numerous, there are more of them than there are tennis players...
  - maelito 6y ago
    > I go to an office and spend the same amount of time in it in the winter and in the summer. Employees at meatpacking plants and Starbucks baristas don't get to work outside in the summertime. Children still go to school, their school days are just as long, and they don't have classes outside even if the weather allows it. You still have to walk the dog, whether it's summer or winter. This is very different in my case (France). In the summer, windows are often open, which suffice to make a big difference I believe, work and home. Never in winter. In summer, half or our work meals are eaten outside or in well ventilated restaurants. Winter -> at most you walk fast 2 minutes to get in a hot building again. Social activites are all closed rooms in winter.
    - legerdemain 6y ago
      Ah! What a fascinating world. The parts of the US that I am familiar with make extremely widespread use of indoor climate control. Many buildings, such as offices and schools, have windows that barely open or don't open at all. And even if the weather permits you to eat outdoors, there usually isn't enough public space where you could do it comfortably and safely. I guess you could drive to a restaurant and then eat in your car with the windows rolled down.
      - graeme 6y ago
        Notably the US had high summer covid cases in the AC belt, in contrast to the northeast and also in contrast to canada and europe, where hermetically sealed environments are less common. I’d be curious to know what flu and cold season is like in the south. There may also be seasonal changes to hvac systems in milder climates. They all have varying degrees of recirculation vs bringing in outside air. If you are running heavy ac or heavy heating, it costs more to bring in outside air. So there may be seasonal variations in recirculation settings even within the same sealed environment. I’m less confident on this point though as I don’t know hvac’s very well and they are supposed to filter viruses.
  - maxerickson 6y ago
    Humidity factors into how long many viruses can remain viable. Covid lasts longer in dryer air. Beach trips, playgrounds, etc probably do add up.
- jerome-jh 6y ago
  Not that I want to contradict your experience, it is actually very common. But I would truly be interested in knowing the causality relationship between having the feet wet and cold and having a "common cold", that is an infection of the nose/sinuses/throat/lungs.
  - lultimouomo 6y ago
    It has been suggested that cold reduces flow in the nasal blood vessels and this hinders immune response, giving the virus a foothold for infecting the organism. I read a study about a bunch of people being left with their feet in a pool of cold water and it showed an increased infection rate vs the control group, but I don't remember how significant and I cannot find it anymore.
  - kijin 6y ago
    Your feet have a large blood supply and a large surface area. Getting your feet wet is a very effective way to lower your body temperature.
maelito 6y ago
My bet is that "interior air is renewed less frequently" makes most of the effects. It doesn't look hard to test experimentally.
DownGoat 6y ago
>> But there is still this very common belief that we get ill by getting cold in a physical sense, while e.g. being outside with not warm enough clothes. This is kinda true, the body produce mucus (snot) in the nasal passages. Microbes sticks to this, and when swallowed are neutralized by our stomach acid. But cold air slows down this process, so our first line of defence doesn't work as well during winter. There are also factors such as behaviour changes like spending more time indoors, closed windows and a lot of other stuff that also likely helps spread infections.
- kijin 6y ago
  I think there are multiple factors, each of which only increases R by a little bit, but when combined produce a noticeable increase. Lack of ventilation is certainly a major factor. The temperature difference between indoors and outdoors is much larger in the winter, so people are more reluctant to let in fresh air. We also don't wash winter clothes as often as we do summer clothes, so viruses that stick to fabric might have more chances to get into our bodies. Homes and public spaces get cleaned less often, too, as they don't feel as sticky and smelly as they do in the summer. Ditto for our own hands, which is probably more important that any of the other factors mentioned here. In the United States, two of the largest mass migration and shopping events of the year take place in the early to mid-winter: Thanksgiving and Christmas. In China, COVID-19 began to spread in earnest outside of Wuhan around Chinese New Year. Even societies that don't have a special holiday in the wintertime might be impacted by cascading infections from those that do.
samizdis 6y ago
I posted this article a week ago, but it went almost unnoticed: You Don’t Get Colds from Being Cold https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25572907 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25572907
- jerome-jh 6y ago
  Should I summarize the article, cold (low temperature) has no relation with being infected: two groups of people inoculated with a virus, one with wet suits in a cold environment, the other in a normal environment, develop a cold (the disease) at equal rate. Being in cold weather causes the same symptoms as "having a cold": teary eyes, runny nose and chills. The article postulates this is the root of the belief that cold weather causes "common cold".

Torkel 6y ago

Interesting article, I didn’t know all common colds were once deadly epidemics but it seems logical thinking about it. I wonder if the rna vaccines brought out for covid will be applied to more and more viruses. Seems like a path towards eradication of all viral diseases.

legerdemain 6y ago
Note that the article does not advance the claim that "all common colds were once deadly epidemics."
highmastdon 6y ago
Is this something we should wish for? It’s my understanding that for SARS-CoV-2 a lot of people seem to have t-cell immunity because they’ve been infected with other families of coronavirus. Correct me if I’m wrong but wouldn’t vaccinating against all of the coronavirusus prevent this from happening? Thus, eradication of all viruses would result in a new virus being much more deadly in a population when no one has had a “previous” less deadly “version”
- keithwhor 6y ago
  There's very little functional difference between being immune to a virus because of previous infection and being immune to a virus because of vaccination. The latter basically co-opts the body's response to the former to generate a lasting adaptive defense.
  - ibn-alfatal 6y ago
    That is old definition, now in accordance to the new definition immunity can only be achieved through vaccination. https://twitter.com/simondolan/status/1341306917076021248 https://twitter.com/simondolan/status/1341306917076021248
    - detaro 6y ago
      A random Q&A page is not "a new definition" as an universal standard. Also, quoting from that page today https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-covid-19-serology https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease... > 'Herd immunity', also known as 'population immunity', is the indirect protection from an infectious disease that happens when a population is immune either through vaccination or immunity developed through previous infection. WHO supports achieving 'herd immunity' through vaccination, not by allowing a disease to spread through any segment of the population, as this would result in unnecessary cases and deaths.

baxtr 6y ago

The idea that all now common corona viruses started a pandemic sounds very plausible. At the same time, it makes the fact that there is a huge corona virus reservoir in bats very frightening.

almost_usual 6y ago
There are likely more reservoirs at this point. The coronavirus is showing up in species all over the planet, this virus is everywhere now. The spread only increases the probability of more mutations and variants. I can’t imagine a future without it.
- legerdemain 6y ago
  There is no "the coronavirus." The article mentions at least nine or ten different ones. There are dozens of coronaviruses.
  - baxtr 6y ago
    Yes exactly. I meant there is a huge reservoir of various corona viruses in bats.
- pengaru 6y ago
  Bats are unique when it comes to mammallian viral reservoirs, due to being the only flying mammals. IIRC their immune system evolved to essentially tolerate foreign/damaged DNA because the heat caused by their flight would regularly damage cells. So viruses can basically move in and make themselves comfortable.
  - DoingIsLearning 6y ago
    I hope this doesn't come across as inhumane, but hypothetically what would be the bio-diversity/eco-system impact of simply exterminating or at least curbing these huge bat colonies. I mean technically we already have a precedent with trying to stop mosquito reproduction to curb malaria and other mosquito transmitted diseases. I understand that from a virology standpoint there is a lot to learn from bats and that they have an insanely robust immune system but is it really reasonable to allow these colonies to thrive unchecked with thousands of bats tightly packed together? It's just that it seems the most recent threats Ebola, MERS, SARS-Cov1, now SARS-Cov2, all seem to have had a bat colony as it's genetic origin.

Trasmatta 6y ago

One side effect of following COVID precautions is that I haven't had a cold at all this year. Usually I have 3 or 4 a year. I'm wondering if I'll get them less even after COVID, due to being more cognizant of stuff like washing my hands and not touching my face. Hopefully all this will also normalize more people staying home or wearing a mask if they feel sick.

kmonsen 6y ago
I started to take d vitamin when Covid started and was wondering if that is why I have not had a cold this year. But most likely it is the social distancing.
- highmastdon 6y ago
  I started taking vitamin d when I started my professional life as a software engineer after my studies. I had a minor winter depression, and I’ve never stopped taking. Since then I’ve had no colds at all. Of course this is anecdotal, but I think a LOT of people in western society could benefit from taking 2000-4000 IU daily throughout the year
  - internet_user 6y ago
    vitamin D deficiency is rampant. head of cardiology at one of the most renowned hospitals takes 5000 IU daily, been for decades.
    - HighlandSpring 6y ago
      Don't hesitate to take 10-15k a day for an initial period of couple weeks if you think you might be deficient. Vitamin D requirements are notoriously understated and the supplements underdosed
    - lostlogin 6y ago
      I think that copying the behaviour of hospital department heads could lead to propagation of some truely idiosyncratic behaviour.

nradov 6y ago

Assuming that HCoV-OC43 caused the 1889 pandemic, it killed about 0.06% of the world population. By comparison COVID-19 has so far killed about 0.02% of the world population.

almost_usual 6y ago
I don’t think many ICUs or vents were around in 1889.
- nradov 6y ago
  Even if we had zero ICUs or ventilators the COVID-19 fatality rate would only be marginally higher. The vast majority of patients who are going to survive will do so regardless of whether they receive ICU level care. The current care protocol recommends mechanical ventilation only as a last resort. Most of the effective treatments can be delivered at lower care levels. https://www.evms.edu/media/evms_public/departments/internal_medicine/EVMS_Critical_Care_COVID-19_Protocol.pdf https://www.evms.edu/media/evms_public/departments/internal_...
  - graeme 6y ago
    That protocol (MATH+) has received wide marketing but it’s not obviously correct. Paul Marik, the creator, was previously known for some promising studies on vitamin C in hospital care that ultimately didn’t pan put. But he doubled down on it, including in this protocol. Am not a doctor, just repeating what I read doctors saying.
  - littlestymaar 6y ago
    IIRC from a study in French hospitals, one in three people being ventilated died. Without ventilation, these people would have died with almost 100% certainty (that what “last resort” means BTW), so without ventilation we would have around 3 times more death. Furthermore, in the 19th century, they had no access to antibiotics, so a significant amount of the deaths has probably be caused by bacterial infection on top of the viral one (like what happened with the Spanish flu). On the other hand, the world population was way younger at that time, so Covid19 would have caused fewer sever cases back then.

jfoster 6y ago

"It may continue to cause severe illnesses for some years yet, especially among older people." What's behind this being raised as a possibility? Is it just that some older people may not be suitable for vaccination, or not accept vaccination, or is there something else?

almost_usual 6y ago
“In the longer term, virologists cannot predict how SARS-CoV-2 will evolve.” I read this as there’s no reason the virus can’t mutate and render a vaccine ineffective.
- cortesoft 6y ago
  Wonder if it will end up like the flu, where we have to make a new vaccine every year to deal with that years strains.
  - astrange 6y ago
    The flu has special mechanisms that let it evolve every year and change its outer proteins. Coronaviruses don't, and they mutate more slowly because they have a proofreader.
graeme 6y ago
Not an expert, but my guess is a lower immune response to the vaccine in older patients.
wozer 6y ago
The article is from May 2020 when vaccination was still a somewhat distant possibility.

cmason 6y ago

I knew that bats are often the source of zoonotic viral transmission, but not why bats are such persistent and effective reservoirs of virus. This article (and the linked review) does a pretty good job of explaining why: that bats more finely modulate their immune response and thus “tolerate” viral infection over long periods. The article then speculates that various environmental stressors reduce immunity and induce heightened viral shedding, ultimately leading to spillover. Long but an interesting read https://knowablemagazine.org/article/health-disease/2020/why-do-bats-have-so-many-viruses https://knowablemagazine.org/article/health-disease/2020/why...

tempestn 6y ago

So now that we have proven covid vaccines, is there any chance of them being adapted to treat these other coronaviruses? If four viruses make up ~25% of common colds, knocking those out could have a significant impact on quality of life and productivity. (After dealing with COVID-19, of course.)

UncleSlacky 6y ago
For the mRNA type vaccines, apparently the RNA string payload can be easily "reprogrammed" within the generic "platform" provided by the vaccine.
- tempestn 6y ago
  Yeah, I've read that. So it certainly seems like it would be possible. I wonder if it's something that would actually happen though, or if minor viruses just aren't considered worth it.

cies 6y ago

The abstract says: > The covid-19 virus isn't the first coronavirus to jump from animals to humans. What can we learn from previous encounters But we don't. We're heavily to addicted to animal products. Not only on individual level (i'm vegan and it's bizarre to see how people are clinging to "their" animal product indulgence, many straight up admit it is cruel and unnecessary), but also institutionalized (subsidies for animal farms, animal feed products, gov't paid advertising campaigns, etc.). This covid is an animal abuser's disease. It's about time (or long overdue as we can read in this article) we revisit our relations to the animal kingdom.

baby 6y ago
Sci-fi thought: if everybody was vegan we’d have a crazy plant-based industry that would do crazy thing to scale and we would start having plant-based diseases.
- gregschlom 6y ago
  You're describing modern agriculture, with all the issues around pesticide use, soil erosion, cutting down forests to plant crops, etc...
  - cies 6y ago
    > cutting down forests to plant crops And then feeding most of that crop produce to our livestock. Eating plants directly solves the problem: we'd have abundance.
    - earthboundkid 6y ago
      Wouldn’t population just increase until we’re back where we are now?
      - cies 6y ago
        If we need less crop produce (because we dont need to feed the live stock) then the crop produce related pollution will decrease by the same factor, right? No also consider all the pollution from the live stock (which is huge! see the documentary Cowspiracy or Dominion for details). A lot of pollution come directly or indirectly from animal produce. I count CO2, NOx, phosphor, methane, water use/pollution/acidification, land use/pollution/acidification. It's said that it is one of the most polluting industries, up there with transport and residential heating/cooling.

not_a_moth 6y ago

> The covid-19 virus isn't the first coronavirus to jump from animals to humans Sigh, while controversial to state, there has of yet been no refutation of the lab leak hypothesis presented by scientists like Brett Weinstein [1] [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5SRrsr-Iug https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5SRrsr-Iug Wanting to discuss virus origins should not be political or knee jerk censored. At the very surface, natural origins next to a P4 lab doing gain of function coronavirus research is already asking a lot from us.

saiya-jin 6y ago
Wasn't this inspected by leading virus scientists and concluded that its way different to anything that lab ever found and there is no current technology to modify it so much? The lab isn't secretive about its stash of viruses they find in the wild IIRC. I recall reading some interview with lead scientist in this lab few weeks ago someplace but can't find it now.
- astrange 6y ago
  It's impossible to prove they didn't randomly mutate a virus until it reached its current state, so people who want a conspiracy theory are already falling back to that, Russell's teapot style. But there's also no reason to care if they did or not.
  - sillycon-valley 6y ago
    > But there's also no reason to care if they did or not. I would liken it to Chernobyl if they did accidentally release it. If it wasn't natural then it could have been prevented, including the 2 million dead.
  - earthboundkid 6y ago
    No reason to care? If SARS-CoV-2 is a lab accident, the labs need to be shut down and heavily regulated before reopening if ever. There is plenty of reason to care. Will we ever know for sure one way or the other? That seems less likely. If it is an accident, China will hide it forever. If it’s not, it will be hard to prove unless you find the intermediary host somehow.

xenocratus 6y ago

It's interesting to note that the peak death rate for Spanish Flu was for ages around 28 which represents the infants born around the time of the Russian Flu. There might be some causation there along the lines of "being exposed to a potent flu in infancy leads to a dysregulated immune response for new strains" [1]. Maybe there are studies out there looking at this in the case of Covid, already? [1] https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0069586 https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal...