21 ms·

The Lab Leak Hypothesis

• api 6y ago
  I'm not convinced either way, but posting because this is an articulate well written non-sensational discussion of the idea. If it is true, it was almost certainly an accident. Nobody really benefited from this (even if China really has eradicated it, it's damaged their export-heavy economy badly), and if it was terrorists they would have claimed responsibility since that's the point of terrorism. Biological warfare is dumb anyway. It's like trying to use a grenade as a handgun. Yes it does damage the enemy, but...
  • coolspot 6y ago
    However, the state-sponsored gain-of-function research towards particular properties is not an accident. The Wuhan Institute of Virology has published papers on how they were able to modify a bat virus to achieve more dangerous properties [77][88]. [77] - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4797993/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4797993/ [88] - https://www.nature.com/news/engineered-bat-virus-stirs-debate-over-risky-research-1.18787 https://www.nature.com/news/engineered-bat-virus-stirs-debat...
    • api 6y ago
      That always did strike me as reckless. It reminds me of 1950s and 1960s atomic testing: yes, there is value in the knowledge gained, but the method of gaining it was a bit YOLO.
    • sukilot 6y ago
      Nature.com says: > Editors’ note, March 2020: We are aware that this story is being used as the basis for unverified theories that the novel coronavirus causing COVID-19 was engineered. There is no evidence that this is true; scientists believe that an animal is the most likely source of the coronavirus. which seems to be unscientific editorializing. There is some evidence, as presented in the OP for example, and there is "no evidence" for any other origin theory either. And the Chinese government in Wuhan showed from the start with Li Wenliang's experience, that any evidence that pointed to imperfect competence in Wuhan would be destroyed by the totalitarian government.
    • anon9001 6y ago
      How close are we to DIY viruses? If I was a teenager interested in biology, and I wanted to maybe build a "harmless" virus just to see if I could do it, how achievable might that be? I watched computer viruses go from: researchers -> tinkerers -> vandals -> criminals -> governments At this point we just assume every computer is compromised, and we carve out enclaves of varying security for whatever risk level we're willing to assume. I can imagine a future where pandemics happen at the same frequency as school shootings do today. How far away is that?
      • XorNot 6y ago
        You can make a superflu with a ready supply of ferrets and warehouse. It does not take genetic engineering to do.
      • robbiep 6y ago
        With the COVID vaccine, we’re now very close to being able to infect someone with vCJD through a pinprick, with technology that within a couple of years someone will be able to make at home. The difficulty with what you’ve asked is we don’t have the API in the same way as with computers. I suspect that for many many iterations of computing power and biological understanding we are going to be a long way from being able to determine how to make something dangerous from scratch (although it should be easier to make something dangerous become more dangerous)
      • sergiomattei 6y ago
        The bats do it for free.
  • anonymousiam 6y ago
    The interesting thing for me is the contrast in the behavior of the Chinese government between the previous viral leaks from China. I'm citing a few references from before 2020: https://www.the-scientist.com/news-analysis/sars-escaped-beijing-lab-twice-50137 https://www.the-scientist.com/news-analysis/sars-escaped-bei... https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/3/20/18260669/deadly-pathogens-escape-lab-smallpox-bird-flu https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/3/20/18260669/deadly... The previous behavior was to acknowledge the leaks and try to contain them. The current behavior is to arrest people who document the government cover up. Why the change in behavior, unless the government absolutely knows what happened and is trying to control the information?
    • sukilot 6y ago
      Your China article is from 2004. China's regime's ability to control media and its residents is stronger now than then, and the people in charge are more insecure and defensive. That may be enough to explain the change in PR strategy. Alternatively, past leaks simply weren't bad enough to embarrass the State and could be blamed on local officials. This one got so big so fast that a more defensive posture was required.
    • XorNot 6y ago
      China is now an authoritarian strongman dictatorship since 2004.
  • Melting_Harps 6y ago
    > Nobody really benefited from this (even if China really has eradicated it, it's damaged their export-heavy economy badly) This narrative has to stop: the CCP just illegally annexed Hong Kong 27 years ahead of the hand over and violated it's autonomy in direct violation of the internationally recognized treaty, which may arguably require China to return HK to British control--but the UK is entirely destroyed due to COIVD and yet another lockdown and post Brexit economic downturn so they've been neutralized. The CCP set a very dangerous precedent, especially with regards to Taiwan in that region, along the lines of what Russia did when in annexed Crimea, which resulted in several years of armed conflict and even more untold human rights violations. The CCP committed Crimes against Humanity to do so and passed the National Security Law which has removed rule of Law in what was once a beacon of Western values in an geographic and ethnically Eastern province, which had served as an experimental working model that proved the two systems and cultures could operate alongside one another which also served as the gateway for Western Investment into the Chinese Economy. I've gone in depth in earlier posts, so look at it for a more elaborated view. But, this tired narrative breaks down under the most basic amount of scrutiny and needs to stop bein repeated: China as a collective may not have gained a lot, but the CCP has without a doubt consolidated a great deal of power and proven itself to be (for the time being until de-coupling takes place in earnest) an indispensable component due to its concentration to serve as the manufacturing hub of the World. And this is detrimental for many reasons I've outlined before. As for no evidence, I honestly do not know what to make of Dr. Yan's work, especially because of who backed her, but her story is not only very compelling as a whole but it is also inline with the typical MO the CCP follows when they want to dissapear someone. And her involvement at the WHO as well as work in HK is what speaks volume, she elaborated quite a lot about the gain of function work that was being done in several labs where she and her other colleagues worked at, including Hong Kong, by the CCP with Corona based viruses--specifically those found in bats. I'm completely out of my depth and only took basic virology courses in my undergrad so I cannot speak to the validity of her research papers, but what I can say, especially after SARS and H1N1 in my recent memory is that in retrospect is the CCP has always been an opportunistic bad actor during these pandemics, and its behaviour with the forced border opening, quarantine exemptions, mandatory contact tracing of locals with continued crossings from the mainland into Hong Kong exemplified to what lengths it will go to see that it's will be done, consequences be damned. It wanted the protests to stop, the threat of secession from the CCP was real espcially with Billionaires like Jimmy Lai openly getting involved in the yellow movement (which is why he had to be made an example of) so the NSL had to be passed at all costs, and now we're seeing what that looks like as more and more Hongkongers fear for their lives as they are being imprisoned retroactively for something that was completely legal--protesting, even non-violent ones as in the case of Agnes Chow. As well as the removal of politicians and placing enforcement of financial censorship as it sees fit.
  • jsz0 6y ago
    > Nobody really benefited from this Nobody benefits but who gets hurt the least? Totalitarian regimes are inherently more capable of dealing with the problem for obvious reasons.
    • CraigJPerry 6y ago
      In 2019, I would have guessed wrong about how a hypothetical COVID-19 would play out. I'd have pointed out that the US would unequivocally be one of the best nations at recovering from such a challenge: - Spent the prior 4 years warning the world that something like this could happen - Well prepared for this eventuality (stockpiles), have recently conducted dry run rehearsals for this exact eventuality, until recently had a funded unit of government for exactly this scenario - Has world leading healthcare - Has world leading pharma industry - Has money, scientists, doctors & other resources out the wazoo - Is a competent nation with a history of excellent execution in almost all theatres Conversely i'd have argued totalitarian regimes would have performed the worst because of the politics of a regime like that - everything gets covered up. You'd have insufficient visibility to even begin to mount an effective response.
      • api 6y ago
        Everything you said is true but add a populist crackpot President, a huge alt-medicine quackery industry, and a significant fraction of the population that believes absolutely asinine things about vaccines and medicine. The USA would have had a great response to COVID if it weren't for American anti-intellectualism. Not all totalitarian regimes have been handling COVID well. Russia hasn't done any better than most European countries and may have done worse if they're cooking their numbers (which is likely). Iran has done poorly. The thing that I think made China do well is a combination of an obedient authoritarian society and a large number of scientists and engineers in positions of authority. An authoritarian society is very good at problems of the form "have everyone do X," but that only works if X is the right thing.
• kyrieeschaton 6y ago
  Months ago, everyone talking about this hypothesis was denounced as an evil right wing racist conspiracy theorist, mostly because the people who came to that conclusion were generally right wing racist conspiracy theorists. What does this say about the appropriate credibility update for right wing racist conspiracy theorists?
  • api 6y ago
    I heard a lot of people discussing this possibility including liberals and leftists, but there was and still is a taboo against discussing it publicly. Most of the public articles I saw on it were sensationalistic pieces from far-right news sources, and I flagged those. I upvoted one sanely written scientific paper on the subject, and posted this because it was also not sensationalistic. The problem is that if we discuss the possibility or the suspicion in public, a lot of people are going to run all the way to it being a certainty. This could lead to some fairly destructive geopolitical consequences with the worst case scenario being a world war that could kill far more people than the virus. It is prudent to be careful and maintain a high standard of evidence just like we should in our justice system: "innocent until proven guilty."
    • deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
  • sureilllogin 6y ago
    One one hand a broken clock is right twice a day. On the other hand, a lot of groups are quick to assign anything that doesnt fit their work view to some kind of alt/fringe label, so it's best to take that label with a grain of salt.
  • mantap 6y ago
    There's a difference between an intentional release of the virus, which is what conspiracy theorists say, and an accidental release, which is what this article postulates. Do people have a tendency to dismiss both as if they were the same? Sure. But that's just because there's many more people saying it was intentional than accidental.
• ineedasername 6y ago
  I don't see any evidence for the speculation it was lab created (or modified into it's current form) except for an acknowledgement that the capability to do so exists. I don't doubt the possibility of such a thing occurring, but I just haven't seen any evidence to support this.
  • pimlottc 6y ago
    I assume you mean to say “the speculation that it was...”?
    • ineedasername 6y ago
      Yep, corrected, thanks.
  • kbaker 6y ago
    For any skeptics out there, take an open-minded look at this article: https://nerdhaspower.weebly.com/blog/scientific-evidence-and-logic-behind-the-claim-that-the-wuhan-coronavirus-is-man-made https://nerdhaspower.weebly.com/blog/scientific-evidence-and... It goes quite deep into the genetic analysis of SARS-CoV-2 relative to existing bat coronaviruses, laying out the case that it is definitely of a non-natural origin. I am not anywhere near knowledgeable enough to fully evaluate the claims, but I would really enjoy seeing a rebuttal that is as clearly written to make the case for a natural cause. To me the Nature article just says 'nah, evolution is random, therefore SARS-CoV-2 randomly happened.' but it would be nice to see more detail. Especially with the closest ancestor of RaTG13 being decades of evolution away. (not to mention the questions around the origin of RaTG13 on the author's site...)
    • kbaker 6y ago
      This is a good one as well with some more explanation. https://yurideigin.medium.com/lab-made-cov2-genealogy-through-the-lens-of-gain-of-function-research-f96dd7413748 https://yurideigin.medium.com/lab-made-cov2-genealogy-throug...
    • 8note 6y ago
• fasteddie31003 6y ago
  I think the closest natural virus was 95% similar. 5% seems pretty far for mutations. Is there a historical track record for finding the natural virus to a 99.9% similarity?
  • deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  • cma 6y ago
    We see around one base pair mutation per host transmission, so that would likely already put us outside 99.9% similarity even among humans with coronavirus wouldn't it? Rough estimate: (29,000 base pairs, just assuming 3.5 days between generations, 395 days since first affected person (probably it was a bit more), would be 112 mutations = 99.6% similarity) And I think we'd expect more changes to be selected for in the early period of host adaptation.
    • andi999 6y ago
      Your first sentence is missing the number, did you mean 'one bas pair'?
      • cma 6y ago
        Yes thanks, fixed
  • mabbo 6y ago
    Two answers. First, it was 96% identical. But that was in 2013. Presume it's being passed bat to bat every few days for 6 years, then at some point made the jump to another species, most likely in a wet market. It's really not unreasonable to imagine a 4% drift in that time. Second, we don't identify every virus or every strain of every virus. Just because we found one that was 96% similar doesn't mean that all the other bats carry an identical virus. It's quite likely we found a distant cousin of the umpteenth-grand-parent of covid-19, and sequenced it.
    • 6y ago
• CoffeeDregs 6y ago
  This is a good, balanced article. I've been of a similar mind for over a year now. The chances of the CCP releasing a self-harming bioweapon in order to harm the US seems silly. But an accident involving a well-intentioned gain-of-function experiment seems quite possible and was something that the US was concerned about with its own gain-of-function research. In any case, this, like so much of this other nonsense around Covid [lockdowns in Contra Costa County when the major hospitals were empty-ish; no gradual escalation of lockdown given mid-January knowledge of Covid], seems pretty amenable to a calm, clear analysis... Hypothesis | Evidence | Likelihood ------------------------------+----------------------------------------+----------------- CCP Virus | [That'd be 360 degree dumb of the CCP] | *low* Gain of function lab accident | [Existing concerns and experience] | *moderate* Zoonotic transfer | [No likely vector for extant virus] | *moderate-low* Doesn't seem too difficult...
  • MilnerRoute 6y ago
    The "likely vector" would be the millions of peasants living near bat caves in rural China (who actually have already been shown to have antibodies to bat viruses). And some of whom traveled to the market. https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/04/23/841729646/virus-researchers-cast-doubt-on-theory-of-coronavirus-lab-accident https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/04/23/8417296... So I would upgrade that quite a bit from "moderate-low." (One of the researchers in this NPR article seems to rate it as an obvious suspect, so I'd call that "high likelihood.")
    • travisoneill1 6y ago
      Those millions of peasants living near bat caves would have traveled to thousands of markets all over China, but the virus originated at the one market in China that is basically across the street from a virus lab? It's not impossible, but my money is on the lab.
      • MilnerRoute 6y ago
        The lab was not "across the street." It was a full seven miles away. https://www.snopes.com/news/2020/04/01/covid-19-bioweapon/ https://www.snopes.com/news/2020/04/01/covid-19-bioweapon/
• neonate 6y ago
  https://archive.is/j4l6T https://archive.is/j4l6T
• et2o 6y ago
  This article is a masterpiece of disinformation.
  • 127 6y ago
    Which always makes me incredulous why nobody ever breaks these down piece by piece if it's so obvious. Education is much more effective than proof by repeated assertions.
    • et2o 6y ago
      Because it’s an extremely long article and it’s a lot of work for me to do for no reward.
      • ALittleLight 6y ago
        Just giving an empty comment serves no purpose. If it's too hard or time consuming to debunk the whole article, then pick the most consequential point or the point that's the easiest to disprove. "This article is disinformation. For example they claim X when in reality !X as you can see here." Is a way more persuasive and valuable comment.
        • MilnerRoute 6y ago
          The author actually says that there is no direct evidence for this. That's why he even included the word "hypothesis" in the title. He's not even trying to provide evidence.
  • emmelaich 6y ago
    You should elaborate on that.
• MilnerRoute 6y ago
  Peter Daszak, the president of the EcoHealth Alliance researching the origins of pandemics, pointed out in April that nearly 3% of the population in China's rural farming regions near wild animals already had antibodies to coronaviruses similar to SARS. "We're finding 1 to 7 million people exposed to these viruses every year in Southeast Asia; that's the pathway. It's just so obvious to all of us working in the field..." https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/04/23/841729646/virus-researchers-cast-doubt-on-theory-of-coronavirus-lab-accident https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/04/23/8417296...
  • chroem- 6y ago
    Weren't there antibody studies of people in the US around that same time frame that claimed 30%+ (somewhere in that range if I recall) of the American public already had covid-19? There was some sort of issue with cross-reactivity that later came out. Did the above link take that into account?
    • deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
  • esja 6y ago
    Daszak and EcoHealth have been working with Shi Zhengli for over 15 years[0]. He is not a neutral observer on this particular issue. And this year he has made a number of statements (like the one you quote) which do nothing to refute the lab leak hypothesis, and which only serve to direct attention elsewhere. [0] https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02473-4 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02473-4
  • koheripbal 6y ago
    Being similar to SARS is not meaningful evidence to draw a conclusion about COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2 virus). His data is from 2015 and cannot possibly indicate that anyone had been afflicted with COVID-19 at that time. What he is saying is that animal-to-human coronavirus transmission is common - which most people agree upon. ...and possibly implying that there may be cross-immunity protection - also as many suspect. ...but for COVID-19 specifically, there is no evidence that it circulated in rural China prior to entering Wuhan. ...and sadly China is blocking the collection of samples for exactly that sort of serology/antibody analysis.
• MilnerRoute 6y ago
  I'd like to ask everyone commenting on this article: who wrote it? Seriously -- what do you know about the author of these words? (There's no "author's bio" anywhere on the page, or even if you click on his name.) So what do any of us know about him? If you look him up on Wikipedia, it lists his occupation as novelist and fiction writer, as well as an "essayist." ("His fiction generally de-emphasizes narrative in favor of careful description and characterization....") "Out of a total of ten fiction books, he also wrote three erotic novels." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicholson_Baker https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicholson_Baker His nonfiction works include a book about his more-famous fiction-writer friend John Updike, and a book about public libraries.
  • MilnerRoute 6y ago
    My favorite part of the article is where he says "there is no direct evidence for an experimental mishap..." Followed a few words later by the word "Nevertheless..."
    • arduanika 6y ago
      A stark contrast with all the direct evidence for zoonotic origins?
      • deleted 6y ago
        [deleted]
    • andromeduck 6y ago
      So we're just going to ignore circumstantial evidence? If someone died in on my property and then I under threat of violence prevented police from collecting evidence and simultaneously is that not grounds for further suspicion or scruitney? China has from the beginning barred neutral third parties from visiting the site and collecting samples - even of the disease itself and continues to do so while peddling conspiracies on state media that make Trump sound positively sane. https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-guarding-ancient-bat-caves-155926009.html https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-guarding-ancient-bat-caves-...
  • 6y ago
• mabbo 6y ago
  > There is no direct evidence for these zoonotic possibilities, just as there is no direct evidence for an experimental mishap But there is so much more opportunity for the zoonotic possibilities. In fact, this is the seventh time we've seen Betacoronavirus cross from bats, through another animal, and then into humans. SARS came via palm civets. MERS came via camels. Four more types cause a mild cold only and so they don't get sexy names or a deep investigation as to how humans became hosts. So why would Covid-19 even need to come from a lab? We (humans) had wet markets filled with animals, including the very bats that carry the base virus. It's the perfect breeding ground to create a pandemic-level virus and probably a few thousand more viruses of lesser impact. > A lab accident — a dropped flask, a needle prick, a mouse bite, an illegibly labeled bottle — is apolitical. Oh, I disagree. If the root cause is Big Government meddling where they ought not to, that tells us one story. If the root cause is unregulated wet markets with viruses crossing species freely, that tells a very different story. Smaller government solves one problem, and more regulations solves the other. There are a lot of people who want each story to be the truth.
  • InTheArena 6y ago
    Except this is not just a USA story. The reality is that China is shutting down any research into the origins of the virus - at least by doctors not loyal to the government. They are arresting journalists who don’t tell the story they want to tell. In the vacuum of information, it’s fair to point out that the market not being the source means something else was - and - there was a lab that had the closest variant to the virus within the same city. If smallpox broke out in Atlanta, so you think anyone on earth wouldn’t immediately come to the conclusion that the CDC had a accident with their BSl? And there are 14 in the USA. Just one in China - and it’s Wuhan. Let’s not act like this is a story about American regulation or deregulation.
    • InTheArena 6y ago
      Never mind that the author is dealing with a country that is committing genocide right now simply because some Muslims believe in Allah and not the state.
• scott-smith_us 6y ago
  There isn't any direct evidence that it was leaked from a lab, but there isn't any evidence that it wasn't... Sheesh. We're in Glenn Beck territory now.
  • esja 6y ago
    There is a large amount of circumstantial evidence that the virus was leaked from the same lab which had been involved in gain of function research on exactly these viruses (specifically to make them more infectious to humans). Direct evidence cannot be obtained, because the CCP has not allowed any access to the labs or records. No evidence has been presented for any alternative theory, and the stories the CCP have put out have been discredited very quickly.
• InTheArena 6y ago
  I might have missed this in the article - but I believe a separate recent article pointed out that none of the animals tested from the market had any signs of this virus - this China was looking at other sites. Just not the wuhan lab which is a few hundred yards from the market? There were also articles about a year before covid about how people were dealing out about the lax security of the Wuhan lab. https://thebulletin.org/2014/03/threatened-pandemics-and-laboratory-escapes-self-fulfilling-prophecies/ https://thebulletin.org/2014/03/threatened-pandemics-and-lab... https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487 https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to... https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/14/state-department-cables-warned-safety-issues-wuhan-lab-studying-bat-coronaviruses/%3foutputType=amp https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/opinions...
  • MilnerRoute 6y ago
    It's probably more helpful if you can share the URLs of the articles you're citing. Snopes.com delved into the one about lax security, and it turned out to just be something somebody shared on a social media web site. (It had the name "ResearchGate", which many wrongly assumed meant it was an actual research paper when it was just a social media post.) https://www.snopes.com/news/2020/04/01/covid-19-bioweapon/ https://www.snopes.com/news/2020/04/01/covid-19-bioweapon/
    • InTheArena 6y ago
      https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487 https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to... https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/14/state-department-cables-warned-safety-issues-wuhan-lab-studying-bat-coronaviruses/%3foutputType=amp https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/opinions...
    • InTheArena 6y ago
      “ What the U.S. officials learned during their visits concerned them so much that they dispatched two diplomatic cables categorized as Sensitive But Unclassified back to Washington. The cables warned about safety and management weaknesses at the WIV lab and proposed more attention and help. The first cable, which I obtained, also warns that the lab’s work on bat coronaviruses and their potential human transmission represented a risk of a new SARS-like pandemic”
• dasudasu 6y ago
  This is from a country that lets its state officials run wild with claims that it was imported from the US army into Wuhan, while keeping a tight enough leash to disappear any citizen when they cross arbitrary lines, and whose official line is now that it came to Wuhan through imported frozen seafood. We'll never know the origins, realistically.
• InTheArena 6y ago
  https://thebulletin.org/2014/03/threatened-pandemics-and-laboratory-escapes-self-fulfilling-prophecies/ https://thebulletin.org/2014/03/threatened-pandemics-and-lab... Coronavirus a have escaped labs on at least ten occasions. At least four times from China. Why is this article controversial and this comment being downvoted - Other then China doesn’t like it? Isn’t it reasonable to think they might have been a eleventh?
• mensetmanusman 6y ago
  Also an MIT alum, and in July I was considering the bayesian priors of the situation: Roll a dice representing all the possible bat-human interaction sites in the world. How often do you get a result so incredibly close to one of the few sites in the world that intentionally collects these things? I have worked in clean room environments for years. Everyone eventually has an off day (lack of sleep, usually) where you experience a near miss... (glad I don’t work in bio).
  • arduanika 6y ago
    Apparently you're being downvoted for pointing out that scientists are human. I am so sorry this is happening to you.
  • odyssey7 6y ago
    This is the geographic dimension, but there is also the time one. The time dimension can seem to link the outbreak to the start of gain-of-function research in labs around the world. Roll a dice representing all the possible years of bat-human interaction. How often do you get a result so incredibly close to the start of related gain-of-function research?
  • flukus 6y ago
    > How often do you get a result so incredibly close to one of the few sites in the world that intentionally collects these things? Very often for organizations like that who have labs and offices over much of the country. Take a look at the CDC locations for instance (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centers_for_Disease_Control_and_Prevention#Locations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centers_for_Disease_Control_an...) , if an outbreak were to start anywhere in the US there would be a "suspicious" CDC office nearby. Even higher when you consider these things tend to be near major cities and that's where a new virus is most likely to be discovered and grow exponentially. It could have been spreading among rural areas for months with no one noticing, until one contagious person travels to a large city.
    • andromeduck 6y ago
      Except China has only 2 BSL4 labs and though both are in big cities by Western standards, neither are near the costal population centers in which the majority of China actually resides.
• noetic_techy 6y ago
  I would implore those who are skeptical of a lab leak hypothesis to listen to the evolutionary biologist Bret Weinsteins Darkhorse Podcast with Yuri Deigin on the subject: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bret-weinstein-and-yuri-deigin-did-covid-19-leak-from-a-lab/id1471581521?i=1000477267706 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bret-weinstein-and-yur... Related article by Deigin: https://yurideigin.medium.com/lab-made-cov2-genealogy-through-the-lens-of-gain-of-function-research-f96dd7413748 https://yurideigin.medium.com/lab-made-cov2-genealogy-throug... The podcast is a much easier listen then the deep dive that is in the article. All in all, the facts do not rule out lab leak, and there are definitely mysteries to explain.
  • cygx 6y ago
    Note that Bret is also a bit of a contrarian with a habit of 'just asking questions' (It is not clear their was substantial fraud in the 2020 U.S. election, but it is clear there is valid reason for concern. Why is there not broad, bipartisan interest in finding out?) Doesn't mean he's necessarily wrong, and many of his takes are pretty reasonable, but personally, I nevertheless do take his opinions with an additional grain of salt...
  • sradman 6y ago
    Deigin conflates RNA samples with viral isolates that can be used to infect lab animals. Weinstein seems to be stuck on bat respiratory disease that spreads in roosting caves. He does not consider gastrointestinal infections spread by bat guano at night in their feeding range which is shared by nocturnal/arboreal pangolins and palm civets. Bat to human direct infection is also just as plausible near the horseshoe bat’s natural habitat. The Barker article is confused about a 7-hour train ride not being compatible with a 4.5 day average incubation period. I see no mysteries to explain just the hard work of animal surveillance required to connect the dots.
    • noetic_techy 6y ago
      And the well adapted to humans furin site is just plain luck? Its not like this has not happen before, SARS like virus's have crossed species within modern history that we have detected, and they all flame out eventually. I'm no virologist, but I believe its typically because of selection pressure and the mutations needed to start to adapt to humans don't come easily once a jump occurs, it usually takes a few jumps to get it right. This one came out already well adapted to humans and has a furin site not seen in other bat corona viruses, plus 4 additional amino acid chains that give it even more ability to infect cells. This is why Elon Musk got egg on his face for making the prediction that it would be over within a few months, that was based on past outbreaks. Bret is very clear that yes, this can happen naturally, but the chances are very slim that such a alignment of events occurred in proximity to a lab that was performing gain of function research which does this very thing of combining aspects of multiple viruses and rapidly adapting them in either other animal hosts or petri dishes of cells, including human cells.
• csense 6y ago
  Back in March or so, I wrote a comment about this [1], citing some even earlier (January 2020-ish) HN commentary. My conclusion: Lab leak's not inconsistent with the evidence, but there's no smoking gun. China's behavior is highly suggestive of guilt -- the moving location on Google Maps, destroying records, and not permitting any outside investigation. However, China could actually be completely innocent and just doing things that make them look guilty, because "we need to do something to get people to stop talking about this" may be a strong motive of their government. For the record, personally I'm a little cheesed off that our politicians aren't making a bigger deal out of this. (E.g. give China a binary choice: Pick one, either (a) provide us a complete explanation of why you did the things that make you look guilty and let us see some evidence to back up that explanation, or (b) we'll assume it was negligence, and try to recover the costs of the virus by putting a ton of tariffs on your goods.) I don't even think Trump's said the words "Chinese virus" for months. But who knows, maybe world powers have some secret agreements about how to handle bioweapon accidents? Maybe China's people and our people got together back in March or April, they privately admitted it was an accident and privately made some concessions, on the condition we don't publicly blame them, keep everything they said super classified for at least 70 years, and they don't publicly criticize US bioweapons programs if we don't criticize theirs? I'm just guessing here, but it seems plausible. The one new argument I've heard only today is the argument "But how did it get all the way from where wild bats are to Wuhan?" (From two different sources, OP is one of them, I believe the other one was from CBS News on Youtube.) [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22805043 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22805043
  • 8note 6y ago
    I can't imagine the US government letting the Chinese government come in to investigate, so that's not the strongest argument My view for China's actions is that they're likely by individual bureaucrats trying to hide their own incompetence from everyone
    • baja_blast 6y ago
      I can completely see an team of international scientists coming to the US to investigate the origins of an outbreak.
• burnthrow 6y ago
  For those who think these concerns are fringe, see also this piece from the Washington Post Editorial Board a couple days ago: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/we-cant-discover-the-pandemics-origins-if-chinas-thought-police-keep-watching-scientists/2021/01/03/48fc32f6-4b86-11eb-a9f4-0e668b9772ba_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/we-c...
• coolgod 6y ago
  While we're discussing racist coronavirus conspiracies which can't explain the positive COVID results of Italian and French patients in November 2019, why don't we go all the way instead and discuss the conspiracies used by Trump supporters? The virus was clearly manufactured by the deep state to steal the election from Trump, to take away person freedoms and to implement a global reset. I find that theory to be much more believable and interesting than this Pottinger paid hit piece on China.
  • andromeduck 6y ago
    If you think Trump supporters are bad you should take a look at some of the CCTV archives. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/06/world/asia/china-covid-origin-falsehoods.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/06/world/asia/china-covid-or...
    • coolgod 6y ago
      Wow! Another propaganda piece which repeat same falsehoods about COVID origins from China without providing meaningful substance. It's from the NYTimes too, a reputable fake news source which also slanders Trump. Could it be they are also in on the conspiracy to engineer this global reset by stealing the election from Trump using a lab engineered virus?
      • andromeduck 6y ago
        What on earth was that?!
• 99_00 6y ago
  https://project-evidence.github.io/ https://project-evidence.github.io/
• blackrock 6y ago
  So.. let me try to understand this theory. China was so smart, that their scientists were able to identify the virus from nature, and isolate it into a vial. Then, they let it leak out of the lab. But yet, reports now indicate that the virus existed in Europe, before it was identified in Wuhan. [1] Any one else scratching their head here about this logic? Oh wait.. I got it. A Chinese spy carried the vial to Europe, and release it into the population of Italy and Spain, months before they “accidentally” released it in Wuhan. This must be the most plausible explanation for how it leaked out of a Chinese lab, and infected people in Europe, before it infected people in Wuhan. [1] https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1345438947137236993 https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1345438947137236993
• deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
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• OisinMoran 6y ago
  To update your reference class of how likely this is and what kind of countries this can happen in— one or more of the outbreaks of foot and mouth disease in the UK were caused by lab leaks. 2007: https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2007/08/report-lab-leak-likely-caused-uk-foot-and-mouth-outbreak https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2007/08/report-l... 2011: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/countryside-in-crisis-outbreak-linked-to-leak-from-foot-and-mouth-laboratory-5334441.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/countryside-i...
  • koheripbal 6y ago
    Also 2004: SARS in in China. - https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20040423/china-sars-death https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20040423/china-sars-death
• someperson 6y ago
  I'm only up to chapter 9 of 14 chapters, but this is a very thorough, well-researched, sober, long-form article that's very accessible to non-experts. Great read, highly recommended.
• sradman 6y ago
  Also see the HN thread Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it [1]. Novelist Nicholson Barker has written a beautifully worded article but it lacks critical thinking. Lab gain-of-function experiments begin with one or more known isolates that have been sequenced. One of these sequences will match large swathes of non-functional RNA in SARS-CoV-2 if the lab is the source. This is the evidence I personally need to consider the lab hypothesis plausible. Until then, the natural spillover hypothesis fits based on Occam’s razor. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25585833 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25585833
• sleepysysadmin 6y ago
  Here's an article from August 2019. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/ebola-henipah-china-1.5232674 https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/ebola-henipah-china-... The RCMP arrested 2 Chinese nationals who illegally sent highest risk viruses to Wuhan. Their security clearance was revoked and the University cut ties with them. the university stopped paying them immediately. Reassigned their students. Let that sink in... the university didnt fight at all. Meanwhile the lab and public health was claiming that all policies and procedures were followed and they were innocent and yet nothing changed. They never got back into the lab. There's obviously no link at all to covid19, or is there? In fact that 'investigation' never ever completed. There's no coincidences. The CBC reported on it because they caught wind of it via non-government sources. The students are the ones who originally broke the story. So why is the government tight lipped on this one?
• throw2101051304 6y ago
  Oh please, these reporters can't even get the story of Dr Li Wenliang straight, and still call him a whistleblower even though the timeline happened as follows: 30th December 2019 - Li Wenliang, an eye doctor sent a wechat message to colleagues warning there might be SARS going around 31st December 2019 - Wuhan made public statement about a "pneumonia of unknown cause", which was subsequently picked up by WHO https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/interactive-timeline#event-0 https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2... 2st January 2020 - Li Wenliang was invited to the police station and asked to not spread rumours about the new illness Let's review this timeline. Wuhan had made public of a "pneumonia of unknown cause" on the 31st December 2019, yet Li Wenliang is still called a whistleblower by many media news outlets https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51403795 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51403795 If anyone also want to mention Taiwan warning the WHO earlier than 31st December 2019, one need to just look at WHO's official statement here https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/transcripts/who-audio-emergencies-coronavirus-press-conference-04may2020.pdf?sfvrsn=3ef4c516_4 https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/transcr... (just search Taiwan). What's my point in all of this? Well, from what I am seeing is that we are constantly presented with manufactured fake information wrapped in well articulated articles that is bought by the masses. How can we trust what any of these guys write when the evidence is circumstancial at best? I mean it's like me saying "gee, this Nicholson Baker claims he is not a satan worshipping paedophile, but what if..."
• gdubs 6y ago
  This article does a really good job, IMO, of addressing the controversy inherent in the title and the implications therein. But rather than just reading the headline, it’s a really well written article on “Gain of Function” research, and the history of contemporary bioweapons and infectious disease institutions. Particularly the funding, beginning in the 50’s, and exploding during the war on terror. It’s simply fascinating. The desire to place blame, the political implications (plenty bipartisan), the funding — it’s not very hard to see why this subject provokes such strong reactions. But dismissing it out-of-hand misses the opportunity to delve deep into a field that is as consequential as nuclear weapons research.
  • thu2111 6y ago
    Yes, it's a great article. Too bad many commenters won't have read it ;) The most interesting part to me wasn't actually the lab leak part. That's been widely discussed for some time. The more interesting bit was how the anthrax scare turned out to be a lab worker who had a financial stake in vaccine research and apparently wanted funding to be increased ... and how that scare was used by the USG to justify drastic increases in funding towards bio-defence. If anyone has ever managed to more successfully or more cheaply achieve their goals through terrorism it's hard to think of an example!
    • gdubs 6y ago
      That part made me sit up in my chair — I remember that era, the anthrax scare, and yet never heard about that scientist!
• messick 6y ago
  When Ted Cruz et al started screaming about Communism over the last couple years, I thought it was hilarious that they thought the Red Scare tactics of the 1950's would be effective on people born decades later. But, based on how many times "CCP" shows up in comments on HN, I have to admit I was wrong.