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The future of electricity is local
- sdfin 6y agoThis year's change in the S&P Global Clean Energy index were incredible.
- tengbretson 6y agoAbsolutely nothing about our march into the future has made things more local. I'm going to need more evidence to believe this will be any different.
- bryanlarsen 6y agoReal estate pricing has become more local
- whbrown 6y ago[citation needed] If anything, the cause of the most recent real estate crash (and subsequent rise) was the overwhelming covariance of real estate trends throughout the country/developed world.
- ianai 6y agoAgreed. Though, I could imagine a RE market correction breaking the correlations - if only through bankrupting the market players forcing that correlation. i.e. I'm in rural America seeing commercials for cash RE buyers from mobile applications. That's got to be indicative of factors correlating markets intimately. I'm also wondering whether this indicates new factors actually creating connections between markets that weren't previously there - or simply hubris.
- ianai 6y agoAgree to too large an extent for my comfort. Things like Facebook and Twitter, for instance, have basically made anything posted globally viewable. Everything posted on those platforms is globally viewed and, it seems, global viewership is even reinforced or even enforced (through 'outrage mobs' looking for the latest thing to be upset and 'go viral' over, etc). edit-Here's a potential factor to make energy local - but just a supposition: A desire for power to be generated at smaller, localized scales. i.e. Power becomes near-free through the use of tiny nuclear plants - so tiny even your most stalwart against it perceives it as safe enough at that tiny scale.
- pstrateman 6y agoGrid attached solar doesn't work without something buffering production. Batteries, pumped storage, conventional power stations, things that benefit hugely from scale. Even if solar was free, the sun still goes down, the clouds still come out.
- harlanji 6y agoSince the pandemic I’ve been effectively off grid in the city. Kind of interesting Recently Verizon cut me off (despite their promise not to) and their agents don’t seem to understand the concept of my not having enough power to call them and wait on hold for a possible resolution. So I’m stuck living off grid with a carrier who I can’t explain the situation to, actually I got a temporary SIM but I still can’t access my phone number. I know it sounds like a sob story. The point of sharing is to emphasize that nobody really understands the ramifications of not having unlimited power available on tap.
- yjftsjthsd-h 6y ago> I know it sounds like a sob story. No, it sounds like the intro to a lawsuit. (Although I'm surprised because I thought a cell phone could effectively run purely on solar power if you get any decent sunlight)
- im3w1l 6y agoFrankly I can't make sense of your story.
- gruez 6y agoI don't get it. You live in the city, but somehow don't have power? Is it because of infrastructure reasons (eg. down power line), or administrative reasons (eg. failure to pay bill)? Also, smartphones have "talk times" of tens of hours[1]. I find it difficult to believe that you're being put on hold for that long. Even if for some reason you're being put on hold for days, you can still use a $20 power bank to get you through. [1] https://www.verizon.com/support/knowledge-base-177479/ https://www.verizon.com/support/knowledge-base-177479/
- politician 6y agoI’d like to see a discussion of the potential of space-based solar power in light of this analysis.
- bryanlarsen 6y agoIs it a coincidence that Handmer's previous blog entry is on solar power?
- kbaker 6y agoFrom the same author, last year. https://caseyhandmer.wordpress.com/2019/08/20/space-based-solar-power-is-not-a-thing/ https://caseyhandmer.wordpress.com/2019/08/20/space-based-so...
- tobinfricke 6y agoWhat is the advantage of space-based solar power? It's hard to imagine that they overcome the obvious challenges (launch cost, transmission, etc).
- voodootrucker 6y agoSolar panels perform 2x better in space, and also you could beam it down day or night so you don't need to worry as much about storage. https://youtu.be/bveGhdtlFn0?t=169 https://youtu.be/bveGhdtlFn0?t=169 Edit: re-watching that, the economics doesn't sound great. Edit 2: a more in depth video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eBCbdThIJNE&t=81s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eBCbdThIJNE&t=81s
- sytse 6y agoThe article argues that is solar keeps getting cheaper at 10% a year and batteries at possibly double that the cost of transmission becomes way too high for new transmission lines. It will be cheaper to overbuild solar and have a few hours of battery backup.
- Animats 6y agoSolar can't get indefinitely cheaper. Already, install cost is more than panel cost. The floor is probably around what roofs cost. I wonder if BYD's new higher-density lithium iron batteries will take over stationary storage. Supposedly, the energy density per unit volume is comparable to lithium-ion, but they're heavier. The big advantage is that they're safer - the chemistry will not go into thermal runaway. You can buy them now in AU and NZ.[1] [1] https://www.currentgeneration.co.nz/store/p166/BYD_-Battery_Box_Pro_2.5_to_10_kWh.html https://www.currentgeneration.co.nz/store/p166/BYD_-Battery_...
- newyankee 6y agoNever understood why with a B2B average volume weighted battery cost of 137$/kwh per BNEF do LFP batteries for retail always start at 500$/kwh or so including Tesla powerwall. I understand part of it is inverter and may be BMS but still the difference is excessive. Stationary storage should not cost > 200 $/kwh and hopefully as demand accelerates we see these prices soon.
- baybal2 6y agoThe retail price of LFP batteries outside of China is a grand ripoff given that automotive sector, allegedly, already gets automotive grade cells (which are superior to storage grade) for $50-$60 kWh. But even this way, I don't see battery storage becoming a thing economics wise, except in places where electricity supply itself is unreliable. Grid scale storage can be made incomparably cheaper with things other than batteries, especially if storage periods are just few hours.
- AstralStorm 6y agoOr other kinds of batteries than automotive grade lithium-ion, such as sodium sulphate molten salt, or pumped water storage.
- caeril 6y agoYup. There's also a lot of room at the utility scale for improved designs of the old Edison batteries. Nickel-Iron chemistries are heavy and initially expensive, but: 1. They can last effectively forever with periodic electrolyte topoff, proper charge control, decent thermal management, and good contaminant prevention policies. 2. They (and their electrolyte effluvia) aren't terribly toxic. Most other utility scale chemistries have limited lifespans and degrees of toxicity and disposal/recycling difficulties. Hell, this could even be a Long Now project: design and operate a 10,000 year utility-scale NiFe battery. There's no theoretical reason why not.
- glasss 6y agoI have thought for a while that small, decentralized, self sustaining homes or communities are one aspect of a future utopia that makes sense. It definitely isn't within our lifetime future, but I do believe level power generation will be a hallmark of some kind of future.
- Schiendelman 6y agoIt’s too inefficient. You end up using way more energy supplying all those spread out spaces than you can afford. It’s why suburbs struggle so much with long term infrastructure maintenance - density is the primary way humanity reduces energy usage.
- batmansmk 6y agoI'm not convinced by the article on a few points: - powerlines work as a grid, NYC to Texas happens to cross several other cities which heavily mutualizes cost of the infrastructure. The question is not will those lines be profitable for the 2h NYC need power. It's the overall need that matters. - energy transport represents 6% of current electric cost. To make the grid irrelevant for economic reason would suggest that energy price will changed from an order of magnitude. - energy transport also innovates and improves. If you are interested, this report from the MIT has a section about the future of the grid: http://energy.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/MITEI-The-Future-of-the-Electric-Grid.pdf http://energy.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/MITEI-The-F...
- baybal2 6y agoVery valid points, though the net cost of grid connection varies wildly even in developed countries, and even more so in not developed. A rural electric grid may well be losing doubled digit percentage of electricity to crappy transformers, and low voltage. And you may get 90%+ efficient delivery if you live in a dense megalopolis.
- kordlessagain 6y ago> economic reason would suggest that energy price will changed from an order of magnitude The cost of running power lines is an order of magnitude more expensive than the cost to transmit power over established lines.
- legulere 6y agoEstablished lines also need to be maintained and rebuilt after a while.
- akiselev 6y agoA large part of the initial expense is right of way. Buying up/renting property or acquiring easements and defending the inevitable lawsuits is an ever increasing cost thats starting to rival the labor and material cost of the work. Maintenance is cheaper and will only continue to get cheaper relative to development costs unless there's a substantial change in the legislation governing that litigation.
- adrianmonk 6y ago> as the costs of local generation and storage continue to plummet, the relative inefficiency of long distance transmission will drive its use out of favor. This will mean the proliferation of rooftop solar and consumer batteries, as well as solar+batteries at utility scale Rooftop solar and consumer batteries does require consumers to have access to capital, though. It's easy to forget (especially if you make $$$$$ in tech) that many people just aren't in great shape financially. Even if rooftop solar pays off in the end, they may not have the cash sitting around, may not be able to qualify for a loan, or may have other more urgent needs (car loan, etc.). Plenty of people will understand the payoff and will be able to push themselves over the hump to reach a more optimized state. But there will probably always be lots of people who can't and will buy electricity instead.
- Havoc 6y agoExactly. And even in places like South Africa where solar should play well it's still a significant investment for middle class relative to their earning power. Worse government sitting on a pile of old coal plants has a financial incentive to not lose their well off customers. It's the only part of their customer base that _can_ pay.
- rootusrootus 6y agoFor an average household that may be spending $125/mo for electricity, even a fully paid-for solar installation is low impact. Most people would be better off investing elsewhere first.
- PaulDavisThe1st 6y agoGranted, I'm an outlier in that I did my own install, but I'm earning around 10% on the installed cost of my 6.6kW ground mount arrays, which is high impact given that I can't get that from any non-stock-market investment or savings at present.
- Scoundreller 6y agoIt's already become securitized. Some solar co will pay you up-front for 25y access to your roof, because they'll find an investor happy enough for a 5% return on a project with an >10% yield.
- fudged71 6y agoThe term God Parity is useful in this discussion
- bserge 6y agoSolar and wind power, backed by batteries, would cover my usage 150%. I would really like to see more decentralized energy generation in the future. I've watched some videos on Mongolia recently, they use solar panels in yurts in literally the middle of nowhere to charge batteries and watch satellite TV, which is amazing imo. If they can do it, so can we. Individual power generation for every house.
- lnsru 6y agoI like my dishwasher and washing machine, I don’t want live Mongolian way.
- PaulDavisThe1st 6y ago(1) the panels have a lifespan of 25 years, far below the desirable value for the lifetime of any house, but we have barely begun to figure out how to recycle them (2) the level of battery usage this would imply has tremendous, mostly negative implications. A large chunk of contemporary batteries is just packaging (i.e. does not contribute to energy storage), and this would replicated across every house. While more easily recycled (in theory) than PV, we're still talking about a gigantic increase in highly distributed tricky-to-recycle material. That doesn't even get to the resources required to store sufficient energy for contemporary western/US lifestyles when solar or wind is unavailable. p.s. I live in a net-zero-PV-powered house, grid tied.
- Scoundreller 6y ago> (1) the panels have a lifespan of 25 years, far below the desirable value for the lifetime of any house, but we have barely begun to figure out how to recycle them meh if they lose 20% of their production after 25 years. Someone without a Homeowners' Association will put them on lumber Toblerones all across their yard and happily use them for another several decades. When do they hit 33% or less efficiency? That's when you shred them up, recover the metals and grind them into dust for concrete. They're mostly sand products anyway.
- PaulDavisThe1st 6y ago
- api 6y agoI think the opposite. Solar and wind really want massive grids. I imagine a global superconducting grid where sunlight shining on North Africa is powering Dallas at night.
- nullc 6y agoBigger question is will point of use generation destroy the economic viability of the electrical grid. It's already not particularly unreasonable for many residential users in California to generate all that they consume on-site with solar and a backup gasoline generator to refill the batteries during winter bad weather... the main cost in doing so is the batteries and people are continuing to predict decreases in battery costs.
- zizee 6y agoElectric cars will probably save the grid nearterm, with people wanting the convenience of charging overnight at home. Eventually all carparks will be equipped with solar powered charging, which will allow people to use their cars as backup power packs. Long term, solar/battery economics will eventually make the cost of maintaining the grid too expensive. Governments will try and mandate against it, but that will only last so long.
- jessriedel 6y agoIsn't he assuming a steady exponential improvement in solar power costs but taking the cost of long-distance power transmission (which during the fossil fuel era has had little reason to improve) to be fixed? Like, obviously that means solar will eventually become local. But as solar displaces coal, it will be more and more profitable to transport power further distances, which will probably put significant downward pressure on long-distance transmission costs.
- jbsimpson 6y ago> in the frequency control auxiliary services (FCAS) market the provider with the fastest response can completely control the market, forcing other providers to transfer almost unlimited wealth in any desired direction My understanding of the FCAS market is that it is quite shallow, and while there is indeed a first mover advantage that Hornsdale (Tesla battery in SA) has capitalised on, if all the other battery projects in Australia go ahead, they'll probably collapse the price.
- umvi 6y agoWill DC make a comeback? With solar panels and home batteries and LED lights, it seems like a no-brainer to take advantage of direct current...
- holoduke 6y agoDC transport is expensive. Low voltage high amp devices require very thick cables. Not an option even in your house.
- wffurr 6y agoThat's why cars keep moving to higher voltage systems. 375V on Teslas, 400V on the Polestar 2. I doubt that's practical for home appliances.
- umvi 6y agoEven from the battery attached to your house? I'm not saying power every appliance, just have both DC and AC circuits in the home. DC circuit would power "DC native" things like LED lighting and computing devices, while AC would power "AC native" things like motors. By using AC everywhere we have to bundle AC/DC converters for every lightbulb in the house, and in my experience those converters are prone to failure way before the LEDs themselves.
- magicalhippo 6y agoJust to be pedantic, low-voltage transport is wasteful (expensive) compared to high-voltage transport of the same power (energy). That is because transport (cable) loss is a function of the current squared, while the transported power (energy) is a function of both current and voltage. Of course most appliances that want DC usually do so at a lower voltage (typically 5-24V), hence why they often go hand in hand.
- wffurr 6y agoAppliances are a problem; most are AC motors; three phase wiring is pretty efficient for them.
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- austincheney 6y agoThe article fails to realize the future of energy in Texas is wind power hundreds of miles away from people. This is the largest concentration of wind power in the US and is still growing.
- 7thaccount 6y agoTexas, Oklahoma, and Kansas all have a huge amount of wind generation and more is being built