10 ms·
Bitcoin Hits New All-Time High
- ur-whale 6y agoSo, is it Bitfinex/Tether related manipulation, or is it genuine supply and demand?
- Drunkfoowl 6y agoWhat is the demand? This is still speculation.
- DJBunnies 6y agoI feel like the former is just the cry of bcash users.
- earthtolazlo 6y agoGiven their lack of audits/transparency coupled with a Tether supply increase from 4 billion to 20 billion this year alone, I would by inclined to apply Occam’s Razor and view this as primarily market manipulation driven by Tether’s free money printer.
- DSingularity 6y agoI don’t think you are using Occams Razor correctly.
- ceejayoz 6y agoWhat's the simpler explanation than "fraud" where Tether is concerned? They still haven't passed an audit, and they've changed the "1USDT is backed by $1" to "1USDT is backed by loans and vaguely defined investments". https://cointelegraph.com/news/changes-to-tethers-terms-of-reserves-raises-fresh-concerns https://cointelegraph.com/news/changes-to-tethers-terms-of-r...
- bouncycastle 6y agoA major chunk of Tether lives on Ethereum and is mostly being used for on-chain decentralized money-markets using smart contracts. (Eg Unisawp, MakerDAO, CurveFi and Compound) You can track the Tether issued on Ethereum in real-time by looking at this contract https://etherscan.io/token/0xdac17f958d2ee523a2206206994597c13d831ec7 https://etherscan.io/token/0xdac17f958d2ee523a2206206994597c... Currently over $12.4 billion Tether issued on Ethereum
- ur-whale 6y agoThanks for the link, but is that the only place Tether "lives"? Last I read up on it, it was implemented on top of Omni [1] [1] https://hackernoon.com/a-closer-look-at-tethers-blockchain-5c3032328e52 https://hackernoon.com/a-closer-look-at-tethers-blockchain-5... Are there multiple Blockchains where Tether was issued?
- bouncycastle 6y agoTether is issued on multiple blockchains. Omni is Bitcoin based, and recently most of it moved from Omni to Ethereum ($12.6 bil). Others include Tron ($6.4 bil), EOS ($90 mil), Liquid ($16.5 mil), and so on. Full stats https://wallet.tether.to/transparency https://wallet.tether.to/transparency
- ur-whale 6y agoYes, this has been discussed many times on HN, but I'd like to hear the specifics of the mechanism by which Tether actually influences the price of Bitcoin up and down. According to [1] (2018) , actually getting down to the metal to track what happens in the tether blockchain isn't straightforward. According to coincap [2] there is around 20B tether in circulation. Also according to coincap, the Bitcoin market cap is around 380B. Now, the question is one of market depth: can 20B be used to manipulate a 380B market. What I would very much like to see is an aggregate market depth number for - say - the top 30 exchanges. Does anyone have a reference for this? [1] https://hackernoon.com/a-closer-look-at-tethers-blockchain-5c3032328e52 https://hackernoon.com/a-closer-look-at-tethers-blockchain-5... [2] https://coincap.io/ https://coincap.io/
- meowster 6y agoThat's 20B of "money" supposedly going into the market. A market cap of 380B doesn't mean 380B went into the market. 20B of "money" could easily move such a market significantly. If I have a billion coins, and I sell one for $1, it has a market cap of 1B, but only $1 went into the market.
- ur-whale 6y agoYes, which is the reason for my question (last line of my post).
- paulgb 6y ago> Now, the question is one of market depth: can 20B be used to manipulate a 380B market. I think the answer to this is yes, but I’d suggest a further specification: could it be used to manipulate a 380B market without breaking the dollar peg, which I haven’t been able to figure out a good mechanism for. That said, I do think there’s a reasonably probable case where USDT unraveling is an existential threat to BTC: if a large portion of USDT reserves are actually in BTC, a run on USDT could cause Tether to start needing to sell BTC holdings at market to hold the peg, which would drive the prices down. AFAIK Tether has not said that it is backed by USD, just by “assets”, and hasn’t completed an audit.
- genericacct 6y agoUSD weakness may be playing a part, does anyone know what EURUSD looked like at the time of the previous high?
- selfhoster11 6y agoIt's starting to look like welding two disparate financial systems (Bitcoin and USD) is a bad idea.
- unnouinceput 6y agoUSD compared to EUR was stronger in Dec 2017. So no, that's not it.
- saalweachter 6y agoMarginally stronger than now, but it dropped from 1 USD = 0.94 EUR in Apr 2017 to 1 USD = 0.84 EUR in mid-December.
- saalweachter 6y agoThe late 2017/early 2018 Bitcoin-USD peak actually lines up with the last big dip in USD-EUR: https://www.google.com/search?q=1+usd+to+eur https://www.google.com/search?q=1+usd+to+eur
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- qertoip 6y agohttps://bitcointreasuries.org/ https://bitcointreasuries.org/ - the demand created by public companies buying Bitcoin wholesale.
- seibelj 6y agoAny rational investor at this point should own some amount of bitcoin and / or ethereum. The asymmetric upside potential vs. going to zero makes a $1000 investment have very strong upside with limited downside.
- Traster 6y agoWhy not just buy call options. They have the same payoff structure - unlimited upside with limited downside?
- seibelj 6y agoSure, you can buy crypto options in a few places, but buying and holding crypto is far less risky in the ecosystem. There is not a robinhood for crypto options.
- throwaway9980 6y agoOptions are time limited.
- camjw 6y agoPresumably your trade would be time limited as well (or at least have some exit conditions) unless your plan would be to buy and hold bitcoin from now until the end of time.
- selfhoster11 6y agoPoint me to somewhere I can buy them as a private individual, and I'll happily try just that.
- octocop 6y agoHere before all the no-coiners rage about bitcoin ruining the climate.
- octocop 6y agoDown vote me here too no-coiners, gimmie them tears
- djohnston 6y agoI think Ethereum is much more technically interesting and has more capable leadership. I'm surprised the rise in ETH has been so muted comparatively. Any conjectures?
- santiagobasulto 6y agoNot an expert. But for me the most important factor is that Bitcoin’s supply is limited, whilst Eth’s is unlimited.
- djohnston 6y agoIs is? I thought they both ran on similar deflationary policies related to diminishing block rewards
- capnorange 6y agoEthereum operates on "Minimum viable issuance" so unlike Bitcoin there is no hard cap. Eth wont be deflationary until EIP-1559, maybe never.
- intotheabyss 6y agoIt's not like Bitcoin has a hardcap in any of our lifetimes. Coin yearly inflation is the metric people should be concerned about. BTC is less than 2%, whereas Ethereum is around 4% today. With PoS, this figure will drop to <2%, so equivalent to Bitcoin. The whole "ETH supply is infinite" is such a lame argument. It's not infinite, because your life isn't infinite. It has a finite yearly inflation, just like Bitcoin.
- alwillis 6y agoBTC is less than 2%, whereas Ethereum is around 4% today Let's not forget Bitcoin's block subsidy (currently 6.25 BTC) is cut in half every 210,000 blocks or about every 4 years. Bitcoin is deflationary—88.44% of all Bitcoin that will ever be produced have already been issued. We have no idea where Eth is with its production of currency.
- dustingetz 6y agoBitcoin up 62x since Nov 2015, when google started tracking TSLA up 15x over same timeframe BTC only 4x Tesla rn (So BTC is only 4x more of a scam than TSLA is) Maybe BTC should split so retail investors don't have to look at any big impressive feeling numbers
- ur-whale 6y agoBTC is already split: one BTC = 1e8 Satoshis Just change your measuring stick.
- stzup7 6y agosome exchanges had started displaying the price for a milli-bitcoin mBTC back in the days. I wonder if we'll see it again this time around
- dustingetz 6y agoThe press number is what matters
- saalweachter 6y agoI would also note that Bitcoin is up 5% since Dec 15, 2017, while GOOG is up 66% and TSLA is up 800%. I am curious whether this peak will go significantly (2x) higher than the last one, or whether the number looks "too big" and discourages investors, even though Bitcoins are finely divisible.
- naveen99 6y agoNFLX and AMD up similar amounts... there are always new opportunities !
- santiagobasulto 6y agoPartially related: there seems to be a ton of money around. I sold my startup about 18 months ago, and I’m already being contacted by VCs (4 in the past 2/3 months) to see “what we’re working on next”. We’re not even looking to raise money. Seems like interest rates are very low, and monetary supply is going up in the US. Investors are looking for better alternatives to escape ZIRP. Don’t quote this as financial advice cause I’m no expert, but ill keep betting on BTC.
- PragmaticPulp 6y agoThere is a lot of money floating around, but there has also been a huge explosion of new and aspiring VCs. The number of VCs seems to be growing faster than the number of startups, so VCs are increasingly competitive to get the scoop on potential deals before their competitors. This leads to mass spamming of anyone and everyone who might potentially have a lead. The new trend for aspiring VCs is to source deals and bring them to actual VCs. It’s not uncommon to be hit up by people implying that they have connections to VCs, when in reality they’re just hoping to find a new, unknown deal to bring to a VC firm to build rapport. It’s becoming a numbers game.
- solarkraft 6y agoDoes that mean it's effectively easier to fund a startup nowadays?
- nikivi 6y agoIf idea is good plus you got the skills and you know the right people, yes.
- gregjw 6y agoYeah, debt seems to be really cheap right now and people are making the most of it, lots of acquisitons have been announced recently that I feel wouldn't have without this low interest rate.
- sschueller 6y agoOddly Telegram went down just as this occurred: https://downdetector.com/status/telegram/ https://downdetector.com/status/telegram/
- teekert 6y agoEnd of (2?) year peak! Get ready for 80% drop and gradual rise over the next 1-2 years again. It's the pattern, maybe this year I'm smart enough to sell before the drop and buy again by the end of January ;)
- Cthulhu_ 6y agoHuh, finally. I hopped on the bandwagon in 2017 but didn't sell when it was up, I've just been sitting on my hands until it did. Of course, getting back onto Coinbase and I'm now asked to verify my identity and upload my driver's license and all. I mean they should have done that in the first place insofar as governments are concerned, but still. edit: I also spammed random cryptocurrencies (ripple, dash, augur?) on Kraken, those have tanked since then, lol.
- reaktion 6y agoSimilar situation for me: I've had an account since 2013, but Coinbase is just a month ago started asking me to verify my identity. That prevents me from selling or transferring my crypto, but I'm still allowed to buy more!? Their automated verification tool fails for my driver's license, and despite multiple support tickets I've gotten no human response. My takeaway from this is that Coinbase isn't mature enough to be trusted.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- synthmeat 6y agoI can only echo the sentiment wrt Coinbase. They're failing address verification for me, in spite of sending them multiple different types of documents that are clearly showing needed data. And not a peep from direct help via tickets for weeks now.
- diggan 6y agoInteresting, seems they either deployed a new verification system or having massive issues with the existing one as I’m in the same boat. Been verified on Coinbase for years now, and still shows up as verified on the verification page, but the dashboard says I have to verify again. None of my documents works, even though they worked before and all details match. Also wrote to them but no response so far.
- qertoip 6y ago
- aazaa 6y agoBitcoin's exchange rate has advanced in regular four-year cycles going back to about 2010. The peaks are phase-shifted from the four-year halving period. Each cycle is punctuated by a media hype deluge. Nonstop coverage of Bitcoin in the popular media. Face ripping rallies every other day. Tales of freshly-minted millionaires and fortunes buried in landfills. That hasn't happened yet. Each cycle brings in more news coverage, more users, more holders, more speculators, more critics, and more haters. If this trend holds, Bitcoin will follow one of two paths: it will be replaced by something better at its primary function; or it will replace something else. Network effects favor the latter. The current cycle just happens to coincide with the largest expansion money base the world has ever seen.
- The_Colonel 6y ago> it will be replaced by something better at its primary function What is its primary function? I used to think it was supposed to be a currency, but it's failing quite badly at that. But it keeps growing so what's the actual primary function?
- qertoip 6y agoStore of value. Resistant to inflation and hard to seize (if properly secured).
- The_Colonel 6y agoBitcoin does not seem like a safe long term value storage. Would you be willing to put your life savings in bitcoin for e.g. 30 years? I wouldn't and I would be surprised if many did.
- ru552 6y agoWhy does it have to be all or nothing? 10% to 15% of your portfolio is more reasonable. Adjust the percentage based on your bull/bear feeling towards the market.
- Viliam1234 6y agoThis would be a good moment to collect all former frontpage HN articles about why you should never buy Bitcoin.
- qertoip 6y agoGreat point. HN has been consistently wrong on Bitcoin since 2011.
- 4dahalibut 6y agoAh great, another round of feeling bad as Ponzi Schemes as a Service makes people rich.
- qertoip 6y agoBitcoin is not a Ponzi. Debunked thousand times.
- noxer 6y agoIts not but it still relies on endless exponential growth which is not possible. The cycles are 4 year so it may work for a long time.
- ur-whale 6y ago>as Ponzi Schemes as a Service makes people rich Parroting shallow conclusions you've heard on the internets a thousand times without actually investigating them yourself isn't going to make you popular on HN.
- kemonocode 6y agoConsidering the generalized anti-crypto sentiment you often find here in HN, I'm not so sure about that. ;) Speaking about the fact itself and not just quipping: I think this latest all-time high speaks a lot more about USD than it does about BTC. Lots of money floating around at the moment looking to get busy and all that.
- kitcar 6y agoBitcoin is an almost perfect exploitation of humanities fatal flaws (greed, unwillingness to acknowledge externalities - i.e. selfishness). For that reason I think demand will continue to increase for Bitcoin / it will continue to increase in value.
- pillop2 6y agoNot wanting to get 50% of your savings stolen by the state/cantillonaire-class through dollar/fiat debasement every 5-10 years isn't greed. It is actually the opposite of greed.
- ralfd 6y agoI am out of the loop. What is Tether?
- ur-whale 6y agoOld but still relevant: https://hackernoon.com/a-closer-look-at-tethers-blockchain-5c3032328e52 https://hackernoon.com/a-closer-look-at-tethers-blockchain-5...
- ralfd 6y agoThanks. I did see the other links you posted, but it is hard to wrap my head around how one influences the other.
- Traster 6y agoIt's really very simple. Tether is meant to be designed such that you can buy 1 "tether" (USDT) for $1 and sell for $1, initially the suggestion was that every tether in existence was backed by $1 in a bank account owned by the issuer. But that doesn't seem to be true. So how do you manipulate BTC using USDT? You just print USDT and use them to buy BTC. Everyone thinks that 1 USDT = $1, so they're willing to receive it. As long as no one actually tries to cash out the USDT, it's fine. And why would you cash out? Bitcoin is going to the moon! So as long as there's a net inflow of cash into tether, the issuer of tether can just pump the market up using unbacked USDT.
- phamilton4 6y agoIt's a shame I never transferred my wallet out of btcguild before it shutdown!!! It's crazy to see btc hit this price. Everyone said I was silly when I spent 5k on mining rigs back in 2013!!
- silicon2401 6y agoWhat's a safe way to buy crypto? Obviously the crypto values can change, but is there a recommended platform? I've considered buying for some time but am always put off by now knowing whether a platform is considered shady or not. I see a lot of stuff about people losing keys or bitcoins and don't know how to safely purchase
- ahnick 6y agoMy recommendation would be to get an account on Gemini and purchase crypto through them and then transfer it off to a hardware wallet like Trezor. Since its beginning Gemini has always tried very hard to be fully compliant with US law and regulations, which is not the case for some other popular crypto exchanges. Also, I've been happy with their customer service and responsiveness. At one point I had an issue with a trade executing too slowly. I opened a ticket with them and the team ultimately resolved the issue by issuing the trade at the lower price I saw. In regards to the hardware wallets, I'd buy 2 Trezors and store them in separate locations, so that if something happens to one, then you can still quickly and easily access your coins with the other one. (If you don't do this, then if you lost your Trezor for some reason, you'd have to order another one and wait for it arrive before you could recover and access your crypto)
- alwillis 6y agoIn regards to the hardware wallets, I'd buy 2 Trezors and store them in separate locations If you're going bitcoin-only, you should consider Coldcard, which is the hardware wallet the hardcore bitcoiners love [1]. Cobo Vault is fairly new on the scene but is also getting rave reviews [2]. If you're going multisig, you should buy hardware wallets from different vendors to guard against a flaw or security vulnerability from any one vendor. For example, Trezor has some issues recently [3]. [1] https://coldcardwallet.com https://coldcardwallet.com [2] https://cobo.com/hardware-wallet https://cobo.com/hardware-wallet [3] https://blog.kraken.com/post/3662/kraken-identifies-critical-flaw-in-trezor-hardware-wallets/ https://blog.kraken.com/post/3662/kraken-identifies-critical...
- Sargos 6y agoGrayscale runs GBTC and ETHE which are both 100% safe and regulated which you can buy from your brokerage. Coinbase and Gemini are both regulated and safe as well.
- nojvek 6y agoBitcoin’s supply is constrained by math. You can’t inject trillions of BTC out of thin air like US govt is doing right now. Plus low interest rates mean there is just so much money for those who already have money. I expect BTC to rise. It’s a store of value. Holding USD in the bank is a terrible idea right now. Even real estate is shooting up like crazy - at-least in Seattle area (well because supply is constrained)
- bluedevil2k 6y ago> It’s a store of value A typical store of value doesn’t have annual 80% price swings. > Holding USD is a terrible idea Strongly disagree, the USD is still the main flight to safety in the world. I don’t see that changing any time soon.
- latchkey 6y agoHave you looked at the swing in gold price in the last year?
- bluedevil2k 6y agoGold prices in the last 100 years, adjusted for inflation. Gold isn't a great store of value either, this line would be flat if it was. https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-...
- latchkey 6y agoExactly. It is clear that most people don't look at that chart (one of my favorites).
- alwillis 6y agoStrongly disagree, the USD is still the main flight to safety in the world. I don’t see that changing any time soon. That was before a global pandemic and the printing of many trillions of dollars this year, with no end in sight. Why do you think Saylor [1] put his corporate treasury of $425 million into BTC? And then issued bonds to buy even more? Because keeping his company treasury in cash and cash equivalents would mean losing 5-20% each year, since interest rates are zero and inflation is increasing. [1] https://www.microstrategy.com/en/bitcoin https://www.microstrategy.com/en/bitcoin [2] "The Fraying of the US Global Currency Reserve System"—https://www.lynalden.com/fraying-petrodollar-system/ https://www.lynalden.com/fraying-petrodollar-system/
- y42 6y agoThe Internet needs a BitCoin-News-Filter...