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San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

• akmodi 6y ago
  I was searching for research around the infection risk associated with various activities (outdoor vs indoor dining / gyms etc). Was hoping to see arguments motivated by contact-tracing data. Wasn't able to find much. Did anyone else have better luck?
  • avivo 6y ago
    These may help for that: - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1fB5pysccOHvxphpTmCG_TGdytavMmc1cUumn8m0pwzo/edit https://docs.google.com/document/d/1fB5pysccOHvxphpTmCG_TGdy... - https://www.microcovid.org/ https://www.microcovid.org/
  • bransonf 6y ago
    Probably one of the best papers on the topic: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2923-3 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2923-3 You will not find much if any based on contact tracing data. Typical participation in CT isn’t remotely close to “I ate at x restaurant on y day”, and the entities tasked with CT are often inadequately equipped to handle the volumes/technical capacity of such a task. There is, however, a wealth of literature using cell phone mobility, such as shown above.
• ivankirigin 6y ago
  This is a surprisingly coherent. I live in San Mateo County. One thing I've noticed is that the cases are not evenly distributed. California has 600/1M new cases, vs 1000/M in South Dakota. LA county has 740/1M. San Mateo County has 313/1M. Within San Mateo County, San Carlos is 119/1M, and East Palo Alto is 675/1M. It's incredibly hard to set policy when everything is so different, down to towns with 30K people a few miles apart. Links: https://covidtracking.com/data/state/south-dakota https://covidtracking.com/data/state/south-dakota https://public.tableau.com/views/COVID-19CasesDashboard_15931020425010/Cases?%3Aembed=y&%3AshowVizHome=no https://public.tableau.com/views/COVID-19CasesDashboard_1593... https://www.smchealth.org/data-dashboard/cases-city https://www.smchealth.org/data-dashboard/cases-city
  • cromwellian 6y ago
    East Palo Alto and San Jose could be either from pop-density, or from relative # of poor people.
    • ivankirigin 6y ago
      And age, race, types of jobs, family structure, trust in authority, education, and probably more. San Carlos is white, rich, and old. East Palo Alto it not.
      • an_opabinia 6y ago
        Of course. The real scandal is how bean counting has failed millions of Californians. Are that many people really eking out an existence so marginal, it has no impact on prices for homes, equities, goods and services? Or is there something wrong with what we’re measuring?
      • babesh 6y ago
        It is dense, multi family housing and having to work at jobs that expose you to other people. It isn’t directly race or age.
        • ketzo 6y ago
          Well, yeah, those are the factors for which race and age (and wealth) serve a pretty direct proxy in the U.S.
          • babesh 6y ago
            It is flawed lens. For instance there are poor Asian subgroups and there are poor in otherwise rich groups.
    • sujinge9 6y ago
      Probably both
• deleted 6y ago
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• samcheng 6y ago
  I may not agree with Dr. Morrow, but I definitely salute his willingness to buck consensus. We need civil discourse and robust dissent in our lives, and not in the form of “alternative facts”. I think most of the facts he lists are true, just that his judgements are not quite where mine are.
  • shostack 6y ago
    Why do you not agree with him?
    • samcheng 6y ago
      Because he keeps saying there are not problems "yet" and trajectories / forecasts are clearly indicating a region-wide hospitalization crisis. He admits that a crisis will come, and just wants to wait; I believe it is wiser to preempt the crisis, particularly with a rapidly-growing epidemic and two-week latency between infection and hospitalization.
• troughway 6y ago
  Whenever I read statements like these I am torn because it's difficult to decide whether to cast it aside as "feel good rhetoric, but rhetoric nonetheless" or take it as it is. Do I simply gather the facts and make up my own truth of things, or do I listen to someone pen something like this up where there are so many self-admitted contradictions that you cannot help but wonder if these people are intentionally ruining social order, if they are just that ignorant of their actions.
• sbeller 6y ago
  Great read. (resident in San Mateo County here) I personally think the whole country should focus more on the greater good for everyone by culling the virus instead of doing this open-nd-close back and forth juggling, as to optimize for the best outcome available (similar to New Zealand). But then again I am not well versed on the Nash equilibrium when it comes to highly infectious diseases.
  • rlt 6y ago
    For better or worse it’s simply not in America’s collective nature to obey authority on the scale you’re hoping for.
    • olliej 6y ago
      Especially when the party in control of the government spent months claiming that it was a hoax.
      • rlt 6y ago
        Downplayed, yes. Claimed it was an outright hoax, no.
      • txsoftwaredev 6y ago
        The one that quickly banned travel from China or the one that said to go visit China Town?
        • deleted 6y ago
          [deleted]
    • EdwardDiego 6y ago
      Not really in the nature of NZ, either. Our cultural heroes often feature a sense of "bugger them" if they're not inventing something. * Hone Heke, kept cutting down a flagpole to mess with the British * The Southern Man popularised by a beer company, who prefers the company of his horse. * The Good Keen Man popularised by Barry Crump, who prefers the company of the hills and his rifle. * James MacKenzie, a sheep rustler who ended up with a sizable part of the South Island named after him (the MacKenzie Country) * Edmund Hillary travelling to the South Pole by tractor "accidentally on purpose" when he was supposed to be laying out supplies for a British Lord's expedition. However, what we have in our culture that the US seems to lack (from my _very_ distant POV) is a slight tendency towards collectivism over individualism. Maybe it's from our long gone years as a "cradle to the grave" social democracy, maybe it's from the emphasis on mateship. Maybe it's because we don't really like interpersonal conflict. (How do you know a Kiwi didn't like their meal in your restaurant? We haven't figured that out yet).
• threatofrain 6y ago
  If the sum of regional policies are effective at maneuvering the neighboring counties toward a rate of acceptable and manageable outcomes, then San Mateo is turning the dial in the other direction for the benefit of their businesses and on the backs of surrounding counties. If the consensus of the region is net wrong, then we are irrationally sacrificing our regional economic health, and we are certainly also trading lives in the other direction as well. All policy choices from here have the price of blood. I don't accept the position that a policy without robust enforcement is a non-policy, as I think government largely works by a compliant population that trusts their leadership; however, as it becomes increasingly apparent that some wins are purchased by the losses of others, the disparity will brew acute resentment.
  • SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
    Isn't the only solution here to escape the dichotomy, and say that it's just not anyone's fault if the government doesn't land on an optimal solution to a deadly new disease?
  • tims33 6y ago
    San Mateo was the first Bay Area county to reopen and did not have transmission rates that were higher than nearby counties. The real point of his message is that it’s possible the higher levels of restriction aren’t working.
• ajay-b 6y ago
  Agreed, but what is missing from all of these explanations and defenses is a concrete plan for exiting SAH and lockdown orders. Where does it end, or is it preferable that it never ends?
  • tayo42 6y ago
    > or is it preferable that it never ends? Hesitant to respond because I think your fishing for a certain response with that line, but the state has guidelines for each stage of lock down we're in.
  • apsec112 6y ago
    The FDA should approve Pfizer's vaccine on Friday or Saturday.
• jaspax 6y ago
  What a delightful thing to read. It's so rare in this pandemic to see public health officials actually speaking frankly with a full command of the relevant facts, instead of either rottenly repeating the current consensus or sticking their head in the sand about the whole thing. I especially appreciated his points about "essential businesses" being a totally incoherent category, and his unwillingness to impose restrictions on the entire county based on that arbitrary categorisation. Even aside from his particular recommendations, I can't remember the last time I heard a government official talk like an actual human being in this manner. A breath of fresh air.
  • deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
• plasma 6y ago
  It takes leadership of government, focus, sacrifice, and understanding of the citizens to fight this virus. I'm based in Australia, Victoria (population of 6m+, exceeding the 800k mentioned in the Bay Area [EDIT: San Mateo county]) and we have now had over 30 days of zero cases of coronavirus, after having a peak of 680+ per day [1]. We went into a tough lockdown, stamped out the virus, and are slowly easing restrictions. We are working towards a "COVID normal" holiday season. We had stay at home orders, restricted access to shops (supermarkets remained open but most closed, with one trip per day per household), social distancing orders, and months of wearing masks, and 10-20,000 COVID tests performed per day (again, free). Our Premier Daniel Andrews faced a lot of criticism for pushing this hard, and it was a lot of pressure on small businesses and the mental health of citizens, but ultimately it was the right decision -- the alternative was untenable, let it become out of control and watch our (universal, free) health care become overwhelmed, and no one would even be able to do anything -- an acceptance of the virus flourishing was not acceptable. If you don't have a leader capable of fighting this virus, get rid of them. It's frustrating and sad watching from afar this virus run amuck in the United States (and the health care system failing you - I'd _never_ want your insurance system anywhere near me - but that's another battle). I hope and wish for the health of everyone affected by this pandemic. [1] https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/victorian-coronavirus-covid-19-data https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/victorian-coronavirus-covid-19-d...
  • JamesVI 6y ago
    800k is San Mateo county only. The whole Bay Area has a population of closer to 8M.
    • plasma 6y ago
      Thank you, corrected.
  • garmaine 6y ago
    > We went into a tough lockdown, stamped out the virus Unfortunately no one here in the USA in a position of power recognizes that this should be the goal. Instead the lockdowns last only long enough for the ICU capacity to free up, then reopening the economy becomes the major goal. We need to stamp this virus out entirely, like you and your neighbors in NZ and TW have done.
• avalys 6y ago
  Wow. Lest anyone think that Dr. Morrow is some kind of anti-lockdown activist - back in the spring, San Mateo county had one of the most restrictive and prescriptive lockdowns of anywhere in the US (residents were ordered to limit outdoor recreation to within 5 miles of their home). It takes a lot of guts to just look objectively at the data and do what you think is right, regardless of what pressure you’re getting from the media, the state, the governor, your peers in other counties, etc. Not to mention, publicly call out the defects and contradictions in the state level orders. Much respect for this man. > “But what we have before us is a symbolic gesture, it appears to be style over substance, without any hint of enforcement, and I simply don’t believe it will do much good. I think people should stay at home, avoid all non-essential activities, wear masks, and not gather with anyone outside their households. I’ve been saying this for about 10 months now. If you didn’t listen to my (and many others) entreaties before, I don’t think you’ll likely change your behavior based on a new order.” > “Being in the purple tier, the State has already put significant restrictions on businesses and the public space in San Mateo County. I am aware of no data that some of the business activities on which even greater restrictions are being put into place with this new order are the major drivers of transmission. In fact, I think these greater restrictions are likely to drive more activity indoors, a much riskier endeavor. While I don’t have scientific evidence to support this, I also believe these greater restrictions will result in more job loss, more hunger, more despair and desperation (...) and more death from causes other than COVID. And I wonder, are these premature deaths any less worrisome than COVID deaths?”
  • olliej 6y ago
    Well, it's been demonstrated around the country that not locking down is considered perfectly acceptable. The reason for the lock down is to prevent numbers from skyrocketing - the anemic response from the US ensures long term economic damage due to failure to control the outbreak - the question becomes one of what the numbers in Sean Mateo will do over the next few weeks compared to the surrounding cities. Ignoring of course infections spread to the surrounding areas by San Mateo remaining open.
  • mehrdadn 6y ago
    > I am aware of no data that some of the business activities [...] are the major drivers of transmission This suggests he is aware of data indicating that some of the business activities being restricted drive transmission, just not all of them. (I'm guessing maybe, say, indoor dining?) So should those known to do this be restricted or not? Did restricting them previously help or not? Should we ignore them?
• tayo42 6y ago
  Seems like he's being contrarian at times. > what we have before us is a symbolic gesture, it appears to be style over substance I think the problem with being idealistic is people will see this leader,(especially in liberal mecca that is the sf bay area or how ever those people talk now) will latch on to this as a reason to do keep acting irresponsibly and justify their behavior. > Less overall mobility, means less spread. The take home message here is: STOP MOVING! This is why all the counties should act together, otherwise people just go to the open place to do what they want. The adults act like children and need to be treated that way. > I continue to strongly believe our schools need to be open. The adverse effects for some of our kids will likely last for generations. This comes off as dramatic. Like is missing a year of 4th grade going to be a problem for anyone? I barely remember school up until 11th grade at this point. Generations? Why is he saying that? I agree with this though > That the State considers pro sports a critical infrastructure (essential) activity undermines this whole rubric in my mind.
  • frakkingcylons 6y ago
    > Like is missing a year of 4th grade going to be a problem for anyone? Yes definitely. I've been tutoring students in 5-7th grade for about two years, most of them benefit from tutoring because they have knowledge gaps missing from previous school years (for whatever reason). Before March this year, all the tutoring was in-person and it was relatively easy to keep them engaged and they made good progress. Now that I'm doing this over video calls, their attention wanders much more easily. Motivating them to do work is very challenging nowadays.
    • remote_phone 6y ago
      He said generations worth of damage. Come on. It might hurt a kid for her SAT if it was this or next year but to think she would have long term damage from a couple of shitty years of school, that’s preposterous. Kids are made of sterner stuff than this.
      • nostromo 6y ago
        Yes, most kids can catch up after a missed year of content. Many won’t. There’s a lot of data about how students fall behind in a compounding way: they start to feel dumb compared to their peers; start to think school isn’t for them, or that they just aren’t smart enough to ‘get math’ — fast forward a few years and they’ve dropped out completely.
• hnrodey 6y ago
  The article says in San Mateo county there are an estimated 8000-15000 contagious people. That’s several times higher than how many positive test results have been logged in the past 14 days. https://thecovidcomplex.com/state/california/san-mateo/summary https://thecovidcomplex.com/state/california/san-mateo/summa... Disclosure: this is my website based on data from the New York Times.
  • bransonf 6y ago
    It’s important to distinguish between true case burden and diagnosed case burden. Testing is prone to variance due to behavior, test availability, development of symptoms, contact tracing effectiveness, etc... I suspect their modeling efforts use a more principled measure than positive tests. Without even seeing the data I would infer among all tests a high positivity rate (certainly double digit).
    • SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
      You'd be incorrect in that inference. According to state data, the positivity rate in San Mateo County is 2.6% currently.
      • bransonf 6y ago
        Ah, thanks for checking. There are a few other hypotheses then: Testing volumes are low, meaning we fail to capture a sizeable chunk of cases. The testing strategy is bad. We’re testing people that are less likely to be positive. And possibly, the model is just wrong.
  • tims33 6y ago
    I think it is a clear implications we still don't have enough testing even though CA as a whole is doing relatively well on testing. It seems like once your positive % goes above 5-10% it really means you're missing many cases.
    • hnrodey 6y ago
• soupson 6y ago
  I understand that Dr Morrow is a health professional and not a writing professional. For this reason, I would recommend that San Mateo county hire a public relations / social media expert to do some editing on this and future posts. It lacks the structure and coherent message that a public notice needs. I read it from start to finish and I’m not sure exactly what purpose it served beyond Dr. Morrow justifying his decision to the public. Which I’m not sure anyone asked for. I think this could be cut down to a few salient points: (1) Social distancing, mask wearing, and staying at home are the best ways to keep you and others safe. (2) Based on the best available information about hospital capacity, San Mateo is not issuing a Stay at Home order at this time. This means outdoor dining, take out, full capacity grocery remain open at the retailer’s discretion. San Mateo will comply with a Governor’s order if and when that order is issued. (3) Schools will remain open in San Mateo with appropriate sanitation and distancing measures as appropriate. The other 11 points are not needed and should be eliminated. There is also a significant amount of hedging that is not appropriate for a public official / medical professional. He’s a leader and an expert, he should state his opinion as one.
  • garmaine 6y ago
    You seem to have missed the entire point of the article, as it is not announcing any new policies.
    • soupson 6y ago
      Right, no new policies, just a reiteration of existing ones to contrast what’s been announced for neighboring counties. Which itself has value. But I don’t think the rest of the justification/hedging has value to the public. In times of crises, leaders need to clearly and succinctly convey the state of the world and the policies in place to address that state. This statement does not do that. It offers explanations and logic that are more at home in a personal blog post.
  • leafmeal 6y ago
    I appreciated all the detail he put into it. It gave me a lot of insight into everything that he considered. I think the detail proves that it's just not a simple problem. If you want to give a complete explanation, you're going to need more detail.
• tims33 6y ago
  It is worth reading many of Dr Morrow's previous statements on the pandemic. This statement reflects the learnings across 10 months of fighting this virus. We really do need to some moving, congregating, and gathering in groups indoors. So on some level forcefully shutting everything down should achieve that, but we are humans and will make mistakes. So should we shut our way down into compliance or focus more on the specifics of what science says reduces transmissions? Dr Morrow makes a clear case for the latter. The only trick is how you convince everyone to comply.
  • gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
    > The only trick is how you convince everyone to comply. Translate that to: how do we crush the poor, destroy livelihoods and deprive children of education? Compliance, knave!
    • xfitm3 6y ago
      I despise lockdowns and my state won't enforce them. I am so thankful to be in a level headed state. Forcing people into poverty is just as bad or even worse as getting a virus. In my area beyond after the initial reopening its business as normal. Everyone is having parties and celebrating, living a normal life.
      • blackrock 6y ago
        Let Freedom Ring!!
      • heshiebee 6y ago
        100%
      • EdwardDiego 6y ago
        How many excess deaths is a party worth?
        • deleted 6y ago
          [deleted]
• sbuttgereit 6y ago
  Reading this I was expecting the same knee-jerk, panic response that has become the "acceptable" public health response to the problem the pandemic places before us. While I detect a hint of futility in this statement, I am nonetheless deeply heartened to know some public health officials are themselves questioning some of the simplistic premises that have been driving policy to this point at all levels of government. Really there at least three attributes that I see in this statement that I don't typically see in utterings of our bureaucrats: 1) I actually get the sense of outright honesty from this statement. Not some overly messsaged, PR driven/reviewed statement by some spokes-hole. I actually think this statement is really what this guy believes... a public statement that even expresses some vulnerability. Despite the subject, very refreshing and I'd be more likely to listen seriously to what he has to say in future. 2) Struggling with right and good uses of power and seeing not using one's power as itself a public good. Good heavens... this guy should run for President! I expect I'd disagree with much of his politics, but I'd vote for him just for having such thoughts and expect the nation would be better off no matter his other leanings. 3) Questioning the mandates, their effectiveness, and whether they might be causing more harm than good. And not doing so from some artificial posturing to show "the right politics", but honest, genuine questioning. Whether you agree or not... I wish more of our public officials were this thoughtful on critical issues such as face us in this pandemic.
  • heleninboodler 6y ago
    I agree wholeheartedly with all three of your points. I disagree strongly with one of his positions (I don't think we should be opening schools while the rest of us are locked down), but I too find it very, very encouraging to have a public official obviously using his brain and being honest about the fact that nobody really knows the right answer. And especially in the context about the use of power, the acknowledgement that imposing a lockdown doesn't actually necessarily change people's behavior all that much is a really good point. We've definitely seen that there are some that will intentionally do the opposite if they feel their freedoms are being impinged upon, so if it's not going to actually make an improvement, the gesture could be a huge mistake.
    • 6y ago
• Raidion 6y ago
  As this goes on, I'm starting to believe that the only way the US (in it's current state of cohesion) is to make decisions that are less effective than the "optimal" total lockdown, but are able to get a larger percent of the population acting in better ways. The human brain can't function at max threat level over time, and more and more people are chafing at the correct (but impractical and toothless) policies. I feel like those type of good value decisions are hampered by the lack of federal response. A cohesive "wear your mask", massive PPE manufacturing mobilization, and benefits would have really driven home the seriousness of the situation and provided people the tools to weather the storm. Bars are open because owners don't have many other options to support themselves. If the government provided support, that would surely reduce the overall amount of places where masks and social distancing aren't enforced, which in turn would allow for better enforcement of existing policies. All this results in a negative feedback cycle where the reduced cases improve contact tracing, reduce waits for tests, etc.
• acwan93 6y ago
  This sends a much different and much more coherent message than what I’ve heard in LA County, which makes me believe the Bay Area has this more under control than SoCal even if San Mateo isn’t following in lockstep with the other Bay Area counties. A mix of Mayor Garcetti’s (the city of LA) messaging mixed with the state and county orders, alongside two conflicting health department orders (Pasadena + LA County) have made navigating guidance totally confusing. There’s even infighting within the LA County Board of Supervisors, and talk of some cities to create their own health departments. >14. The new State framework is rife with inexplicable inconsistencies of logic. Not just that, you should read Garcetti’s stay at home orders last week, ordering people to stay home with 12 pages of exceptions. >15. Beyond the basic human needs for air, water, food, shelter, and safety, it has, to date, been impossible for me to define what is “essential” to the 800,000 people who live here. At this point, it seems like it’s up to the business owner to decide if they’re essential. Anecdotally I’ve heard of every small business owner here in LA call themselves essential simply because they “support essential infrastructure”.
• 01100011 6y ago
  I hope when this is all over we can have an apolitcal discussion and learn some lessons for next time. I appreciate the statement, and it's nice to see the reasoning of a health official laid bare. That said, it seems to be an inconsistent message and not something I think a health official should be putting out in the midst of a politicized pandemic rife with misinformation. I really wish we had a functioning central government to help coordinate local responses, assist with data collection and monitoring, disseminate clear information, etc, etc.
  • xfitm3 6y ago
    > I really wish we had a functioning central government to help coordinate local responses, assist with data collection and monitoring, disseminate clear information, etc, etc. Absolutely not. The federal government has no authority to force states to close and this is a good thing.
    • 01100011 6y ago
      Are you replying to me? Did I suggest the feds should force the states to do anything?
• asdf333 6y ago
  kudos on a well reasoned decision. this is all we can expect of our health officers. look at the data and make the best decision possible. if the data changes i hope he will also quickly change his mind
• heshiebee 6y ago
  Just alone that the Movie industry in Los Angeles is allowed to continue their operations while small businesses are shut shows exactly what COVID has become. People can make their own decisions whether to go out and how to stay safe.
  • ghayes 6y ago
    You would agree that people "making their own decisions" do affect others, though, correct?
    • heshiebee 6y ago
      I do believe that most people are responsible enough to take the recommended precautions and encourage their friends and family to do the same and not endanger others. The only outcome I see here is like one of prohibition. Our country was built on trust, integrity and distribution of power, much of this is the opposite in the name of public health when the numbers show otherwise. Closing outdoor dining but letting the movie industry dine outdoors. Closing salons but our own speaker of the house doesn’t follow. Prohibition, no less.
      • jeffbee 6y ago
        > Our country was built on trust, integrity and distribution of power "F" in American History.
      • chipotle_coyote 6y ago
        > I do believe that most people are responsible enough to take the recommended precautions and encourage their friends and family to do the same and not endanger others. I know I'm being the "[citation needed]" guy again, but the COVID-19 case numbers in the United States just don't seem like they support this optimistic take. If it were true, we should be closer to the median -- if not below it -- then we are. I'm not honestly sure where you're going with the Prohibition comparison; your anecdotal examples seem to be "they're telling you to follow these restrictions but they're not following them themselves," which, okay, I guess, but they're still just anecdotes. Is this "they TOLD us not to have liquor during Prohibition, but there were county commissioners who were SNEAKING INTO SPEAKEASIES!"? I mean, sure, probably, but the comparison kind of breaks down at that point. Prohibition was based on a puritanical moral panic; our current pandemic-era lockdowns are based on a very real, highly contagious lethal disease.
• sidibe 6y ago
  I understand the sentiment, but I think it's pretty clear in retrospect hard lockdowns were the correct way to address this. This half-assed "wear a mask and social distance if you want" stance just made the economy sputter for a whole a year. I've seen this in France twice, where they've oscillated between doing nothing and doing a lot, a couple brief lockdowns can reverse things quickly even after things have gotten worse than they ever gotten in the USA. In Asia they managed to control the whole thing by trying to squelch it.
  • SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
    In Asia hard lockdowns aren’t seen as a silver bullet, and some countries like Korea never really had one. Centralized quarantine and mandatory symptom checks are believed to be comparably important.
    • deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
    • jusonchan81 6y ago
      South Korea did have a near perfect compliance in wearing masks outside of your home. I think that’s what helped them keep it fairly under control for such a populous country. Just to be clear - it was near perfect and not 100%
      • dehrmann 6y ago
        Saw this headline on NPR today: "South Korea's Health Minister Describes Seoul As A 'COVID-19 War Zone'"
        • solveit 6y ago
          Seoul, a city of 10+ million, had 214 new cases today. The health minister's rhetoric only serves to show how well South Korea dealt with the first wave.
• jeffbee 6y ago
  What an incoherent mess. The county should fire this dope. Government health officials need to be out there with a unified message that hits the main points: 1) Stay away from other people 2) Wear a mask if forced to go out 3) Go back home as soon as possible This 15-point stream of words will only serve to confuse. The reason our kids are suffering from this year-long school outage is because our leadership is so confused. With unified, clear leadership we would have beat this thing in 6 weeks, tops. It is exactly this framing as a difficult moral wrestling match faced independently by millions of equals that has brought America to this depth of failure.
• standardUser 6y ago
  "I think people should stay at home, avoid all non-essential activities, wear masks, and not gather with anyone outside their households. I’ve been saying this for about 10 months now. If you didn’t listen to my (and many others) entreaties before, I don’t think you’ll likely change your behavior based on a new order." Even for the many, many months in many, many parts of the country where case growth was stable and eminently manageable? Wouldn't we want to avoid the hardship caused by extreme restrictions when possible? The better approach is to match the level of restrictions with the circumstances within the region, and adjust as needed. Just because most states/localities have failed to adjust aggressively enough (or have abdicated responsibility altogether) does not mean they should have simply set a dumb and blind policy of maximum restrictiveness and then sat on their hands, assuming no better way was possible.
• lefrenchy 6y ago
  > What I believed back in May, and what I believe now, is the power and authority to control this pandemic lies primarily in your hands, not mine. So it’s our fault? Some countries succeeded in crushing this virus because of efficient testing and contact tracing, incisive lock downs, and other measures which are put in place by public authority or institutions. What a poor way to deflect blame for the incredibly poor job our government and institutions have done to protect us. Sure, a lot of started from the top down, states need federal funding, and so on and so forth. But to basically tell people they are on their own, is so bad. This is a public health crisis, what authority and power do I honestly have? It’s incredible that our public officials continue to deflect blame to try to distract from how embarrassingly bad our infrastructure was and still is for handling a crisis like this.
  • 0x1F8B 6y ago
    Many Americans don't even make the effort to wear masks. What do you suppose the institutions ought to do with them in an incisive lockdown situation?
    • lefrenchy 6y ago
      Agreed, the lack of social cohesion and political turmoil in the US in a uniquely poor time to come head to head with a pandemic. I’m not sure how to solve that problem, and agree it is a difficult one. However, I don’t think that justifies public officials shifting the blame.
• aazaa 6y ago
  The article makes some good points about the contradictions in state policy, for example: > That the State considers pro sports a critical infrastructure (essential) activity undermines this whole rubric in my mind. Pro sports is very nice to have and is probably a pleasant distraction. It is not essential. ... This is bad for several reasons: - sporting events involve close contact between participants - sporting events draw crowds - sporting events require infrastructure to service them (restrooms, food, parking, etc) - the blatant contradiction encourages those who have been told to shut down to disobey the order
  • WalterGR 6y ago
    Sports in California during shutdowns are not allowed to have audiences, so the following are incorrect in context. - sporting events draw crowds - sporting events require infrastructure to service them (restrooms, food, parking, etc) - the blatant contradiction encourages those who have been told to shut down to disobey the order I think there’s a lot of misinformation and disinformation out there, which is the leading cause of people disobeying the order(s).
• viraptor 6y ago
  > the structure of our economy is, for the most part, if you don’t work, you don’t eat or have a roof over your head I like that this is raised explicitly. There's lots of space for "lockdown with proper support" that the US is extremely unlikely to execute. But I don't think it's mentioned often enough that that's a possible direction.
  • nhf 6y ago
    100% this. There's a huge subtext of "I'd be comfortable with more stringent measures if I knew the welfare of my population would be assured, but sadly it's not."
• mdale 6y ago
  It falls a bit into the trap of assuming people operate with a level playing field of information though as other mention in thread it's deeply refreshing to see a public official act with some humility and respect for it's citizens. Issue is we live in times of asymmetrical informational warfare. So we can't just provide strong data and recommendations while limiting intervention relative to respecting freedom. Consider how we decreased cigarette smoking via reasonable science driven laws around indoor rules that impact health of others ... and yes graphic commercials of the health consequence which can only be described as full scale information warfare. Would need an accelerated program along these lines to regularly show people suffering in this health crisis to help drive / scare people into doing the right thing.
• gnicholas 6y ago
  This will provide an interesting experiment since San Mateo County and Santa Clara County are adjacent, demographically similar, and are pursuing different courses of action. But analysis will be complicated by the porous border. There will presumably be even more people coming into SMC from SCC to patronize businesses that are more open than those in SCC.
  • dehrmann 6y ago
    > demographically similar Not really. Santa Clara county has San Jose, a city of 1M. San Mateo's largest city is Daly City (100k). San Mateo county also has a more rural and isolated coast. San Mateo county is also a lot whiter.
    • gnicholas 6y ago
      Comparisons are never perfect, but we will surely be able to learn from seeing what happens. Also, it's not as if the only data that will come in will be at the county level. Menlo Park and Palo Alto are virtually identical from a demographic perspective and will be following different rules. We'll be able to see how their reported numbers differ. For example, we'll be able to track the case counts in MP and PA school districts.
• russellbeattie 6y ago
  My fellow humans are idiots. I'm an idiot. This isn't the right way to be a leader. Nuance is not for the masses. They need to be told the right thing to do, especially in a crisis. And then you assume literally everyone will bend the rules as they see fit, because they will. All this long screed does is mess with people's heads and cause more problems than it solves. The virus doesn't care where the county line is. If everywhere else in the Bay Area is locked down, San Mateo should as well.
  • baskire 6y ago
    Even if the lockdowns do nothing to stop the spread? San Mateo county isn’t an average joe middle America bumble-nowhere county. It’s populace is highly educated with the nuance something all can comprehend.
• bosswipe 6y ago
  Travel is the obvious unaddressed issue in the US. This recent surge started with a big spike in the midwest then slowly spread to the rest of the country. Without interstate travel restrictions these lockdown end up being wasted painful sacrifices by millions of people over many months. No matter how restrictive one region is, they could succefully eradicate the virus, but the virus will just incubate in a less restrictive region and come right back.
• mwexler 6y ago
  So, this post suggests that lockdowns don't "work": among other things, a lockdown may create reactance causing people to not not only avoid changing their behaviors to reduce risk, it may even make some perform behaviors to increase risk, to themselves and others. It's just disappointing that, if true, the opposite doesn't work. If only this happened: the gov says "We choose to do no lockdowns, and just have a list of suggestions. No need to follow them. Do your normal activities" and the response: "You can't tell me what to do! Screw you! I'm going to wear masks AND distance, esp among vulnerable populations! Do my normal activities my foot! So there, suck it!". Reverse psychology always seems to work better in marketing, and low budget movies and sitcoms.
  • st1ck 6y ago
    Authorities in the US and Europe did essentially say this in the early stages, and were (rightfully) criticized for such a policy by certain people. But that was admittedly pretty small percentage of population and also probably not the kind of people you have in mind.
  • Viliam1234 6y ago
    It worked like this in Slovakia, during the first wave. Government told people not to buy masks, people started making their own masks from cloth and selling them to neighbors. Cities started closing schools. Supermarkets limited the number of people allowed in the shop at the same time. Only later government made this mandatory across the whole country. People acted rationally, and I think Slovakia had the lowest infection per capita in whole Europe. And then somehow everything got wrong during summer. Ironically, because almost no one got sick during the first wave, it became popular to believe that the entire pandemic is just made up by evil Western media. People took vacations all across the world, and in September shared the viruses at schools, which were no longer closed because "education is important". In the beginning of September, the situation was worse than ever during the first wave, and the government did nothing. In October it was 20 times higher, and in the beginning of Novermber the goverment finally woke up and imposed some half-assed measures, which at least keep the infection rate constant (i.e. still 20 times higher than during the first wave). Not sure what is the lesson here. Perhaps that reverse psychology can work for a while... and then it may revert again. Because if it is cool to be a contrarian and oppose the government, soon this opposition becomes the new normal, and then it becomes cool to oppose what was done yesterday. And also that the better you protect yourself against a disease, the more people will believe the disease was not real.
• dmode 6y ago
  I agree with San Mateo County's stance. I am in Contra Costa and we joined the other counties to shut down at 30% ICU capacity. I don't think there is any merit to shutting down outdoor dining. I haven't seen any study showing that outdoor dining leads to significant transmission.