13 ms·

The Economics of Christmas Trees

213 points by Anon84 6y ago

sircastor 6y ago
I was just discussing tree farm economics with the guy who runs the farm we bought from this year. Our normal place was closed this year, and he told me a number of his local competitors only opened for one weekend. The trees this year we’re on the short side because of supply issues from the previous years.
- psbp 6y ago
  This is because of the wildfires in the PNW, right? I remember hearing about this years ago.
  - sircastor 6y ago
    I believe it’s actually more related to the economic depression/recession ~2008. Fewer buyers in 2008 meant less space to plant new trees, which means fewer trees reaching maturity for this season. Coupled with a bad few years means more farms closing, meaning fewer trees available for a larger customer base. Though I can’t speak regarding the fires impact on farms.
- JKCalhoun 6y ago
  Also was just musing about this since we cut a tree for Christmas yesterday. I was feeling a but guilty harvesting a tree every year, wondering if fake was the way to go. Reading the article made me wonder if neither choice was a good one. It does look like "U-Cut" trees are cutting out the middleman(person) and putting money straight into the farmer's pocket. At $65 that's a much healthier profit margin than the $8-$10 they get selling to wholesalers. And I suppose if there were made-in-the-USA fake trees that too could stimulate the local (U.S.) economy ... but that doesn't appear to be the case.
  - paulryanrogers 6y ago
    Maybe buy a used artificial one, or just ask friends and relatives of they're getting rid of one? For years I used my grandfather's old artificial tree. It's probably seen 30+ years of service and was still functional when we upgraded.
  - cm2012 6y ago
    Every single thing you buy has the same economics. It's not really a moral thing to worry about. Retailers are not evil for taking a cut, they have a very competitive business as well. Plus the farms are quite sustainable, there's no risk of overfarming Christmas trees.
  - aynsof 6y ago
    I do wonder how the expert in the article came up with the assertion that fake was now environmentally friendly than real. Surely shipping a pile of plastic from China is worse for the environment than growing a real tree for 10 years. Even if the plastic lasts for a decade, and the alternative is to buy 10 real trees over that same time period, I'd have thought the natural option would be better for the planet.
    - jeromegv 6y ago
      I haven't made the math... but those plastic trees are much smaller and lighter than the real ones (and have a very standard size in a box that can be very well optimized), so shipping them from China on a container boat + container train + keeping them 10 years might not be that bad comparing to what is required to transport those natural trees every single year on trucks often across borders (lots of tree farms in Canada shipping to the US) + complicated transport OUT at the end of the season. Obviously you have to add the positive impact of having a tree growing and the CO2 they process. Just wanted to chime that it might not be that obvious what is really more eco-friendly. I'm speaking as someone who would obviously prefer the plastic-free solution.
    - stilisstuk 6y ago
      I am going to buy a replantable pottgrown tree this year. I've read plastic trees needs to be used 14 years in order to be more eco friendly than cutting a new tree every year.
cm2012 6y ago
This is a great article.
- cptskippy 6y ago
  I wish they explored the ACTA claims that artificial Christmas trees are more environmentally friendly than real trees. Artificial trees are made from PVC and the by products of PVC manufacturing are highly toxic and historically highly polluting. In order for that claim to be true under China's lax regulatory environment, either they have some revolutionary new method of producing PVC or farming Christmas trees is highly polluting. Either way, I would love to know the answer. Sadly it's probably just a lie as the head of the ACTA is an artificial tree mogul.
  - bombcar 6y ago
    I suspect the disconnect is that the average fake tree is NOT used for ten years - probably closer to one.
    - ghaff 6y ago
      That seems an odd claim though I can't disprove it. Why would I buy an artificial tree every year and have to dispose of it every year. I mostly have a small artificial tree (along with a very old pre-decorated even smaller one) because it's a nice thing I can grab from my attic, put up in a few minutes, and stick a few decorations on it. I did the live tree thing for a while after I bought a house and my neighbor even has a Christmas tree farm now. But, absent kids and not usually in the habit of throwing Christmas parties, I'm just not inclined to put a lot of energy into decorating for Christmas. Having to buy an artificial tree every year would sort of see to defeat the purpose of saving effort.
    - cptskippy 6y ago
      Every year seems excessive. I know people who've replaced artificial trees every three or so years because they don't take care of their things, but I also know people who use things until they fall apart so I could see 10 years being the average between the two kinds of people.
Slartie 6y ago
This is really interesting. There seems to be a significant difference between the US Christmas Tree economy and the one in Germany. We got our tree for this year a week ago directly from a grower in the local area where we always buy our trees. It is of average size (the 6'-7' size is also what we mostly consider a good size over here) and it only cost us 30€, so our prices here seem to be significantly lower than in the US. Also, I don't know anybody here who has a fake plastic tree - these aren't really a thing here, basically people either don't have a tree at all, or they get a real one.
- sheeeep86 6y ago
  We got our 1,7m large Christmas tree in Germany for 13 Euros, I simply don't understand how it could have been worth to let it grow for many years at this price.
  - Aeolun 6y ago
    To be fair, agricultural land is relatively cheap. And you basically just leave the tree there for 10 years, so maybe it works out?
    - throwaway201103 6y ago
      TFA mentions regular trimming/shaping, and fertilizing.
  - tpmx 6y ago
    Perhaps grown in e.g. Poland where land and manpower is lower priced, compared to Germany? Ikea Sweden used to sell similar-priced christmas trees "farmed" in Denmark, but they stopped doing that after accusations that they were undermining local suppliers of non-herbicide-grown christmas trees. (In Sweden christmas trees tend to be expensive in cities and cheap/free in the countryside.)
    - Scoundreller 6y ago
      Ikea has some loss leaders. Christmas probably isn’t busy for them since there’s not a lot of real estate turnover in December. I once ran the numbers for their tealights and I couldn’t even buy bulk wax that cheaply.
nostromo 6y ago
I'll take this opportunity to share this cool video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=08K_aEajzNA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=08K_aEajzNA
- blakesterz 6y ago
  WOW! I know very little about what it takes to fly a helicopter, but I know it ain't easy. That is some amazing flying.
- raviolo 6y ago
  Could be the same pilots who do cherry drying: https://youtu.be/UBe9GEhc7pE https://youtu.be/UBe9GEhc7pE
  - dlgeek 6y ago
    So, I was fascinated by that video and kept asking myself "wait, that's a thing?". I found this great article by the pilot of the video that talks about the practice and economics of cherry drying: https://blog.aopa.org/aopa/tag/cherry-drying/ https://blog.aopa.org/aopa/tag/cherry-drying/
davidw 6y ago
We're fortunate to live near a national forest here in Oregon where we can get a $5 permit, and go cut our own tree. They're not so 'perfect' looking, but it's a fun family experience.
silexia 6y ago
I run a Christmas tree farm at a small scale. I wonder if real Christmas trees are actually worse for the environment than fake trees as many real Christmas trees are burned rather than sent to a landfill?
- enriquto 6y ago
  Does it really make a difference to burn wood than to throw it away? I guess that after decomposition of the wood, all its carbon goes back to the atmosphere. It is just slower than if you burned it. The biosphere is a closed cycle, we cannot probably use it to store carbon away by means of its own mechanism. Main problem is that we are adding new fossil carbon into it every day.
  - cm2012 6y ago
    I've heard the opposite for global warming - burial is excellent for carbon capture (delays carbon release for a long time), burning is awful (releases carbon into the atmosphere instantly).
    - enriquto 6y ago
      Interesting, it makes sense. Do you know what are the involved timescales here? How long before the buried wood is decomposed and has released most of its carbon back? Is it 50 years or 5000? Maybe it depends a lot on the type of soil? EDIT: as the sibling comment observes, burning the tree cannot be "awful", as all the carbon from that tree came from the atmosphere. Growing and burning a tree is the epitome of carbon-neutral thing to do. Now, burying a tree may have a positive (non-neutral) effect.
      - Pfhreak 6y ago
        It really depends on the local conditions. A log on the surface, in an area with things that will eat it (e.g. fungi, bacteria, termites, and other decomposers) will fairly readily give up its carbon. If it gets covered, and spends time in a cold, anaerobic environment, there will be nothing to return it to the atmosphere. Decomposition can eventually stall out entirely, allowing it (given enough time and compression) to form coal or oil. I'm very interested in wood gas pyrolosis, a process that pulls burnable fuel from wood and produces almost pure carbon as a byproduct. The gas could be used to generate electricity or heat, and the carbon could be buried in old mines. I suspect the economics just aren't there for it yet, (or the process doesn't scale to the numbers we'd need for large scale de-carbonization).
mensetmanusman 6y ago
This process is a great carbon sink opportunity when you think about it so long as the tree is buried. Plastic trees should be disincentivized in that regard. We need more tree harvesting + landfill themed activities.
JumpCrisscross 6y ago
Has anyone tried selling the plots in advance? Pay e.g. $49 today for a tree in ten years?
- mNovak 6y ago
  For that matter, I assume there are christmas tree futures being traded?
  - gruez 6y ago
    Probably not, otherwise the dip in production after 2008 wouldn't have happened.
- sneak 6y ago
  Startup idea: 10 year christmas tree subscription contract. (Bonus points if you make it an ISA.)
fortran77 6y ago
My city, Sunnyvale, CA, has "free" tree disposal. I once complained to the City about why I had to subsidize someone else's religion. The answer made sense: the trees would be dumped if the city didn't collect them.
- lotsofpulp 6y ago
  Christmas trees are not religious, and is about as secular of a tradition as it gets.
  - fortran77 6y ago
    All due respect, but you're free to observe your religion, I'm free to observe mine. Without forcing my opinions down other people's throats. That's what makes America great. A Christmas tree has no place in my home.
    - jdlshore 6y ago
      > All due respect, but You’re not being respectful; you’re ignoring lotsofpulp’s point, reposting your own, and being more aggressive about it.
- missedthecue 6y ago
  These aren't communion chalices. Christmas trees have no religious significance.
  - legolas2412 6y ago
    The name literally includes "christ"
    - sofal 6y ago
      And Thursday is literally named after the god Thor. What's your point?
    - 6y ago
julianlam 6y ago
> At an average retail price of $75 a pop, these trees make up a $2B+-per-year business. Good lord, is this true? Why are they so bloody expensive south of Canada? We paid $25 for a Christmas tree from IKEA, and we got a $25 coupon to spend in the new year, which essentially made it free. I mean, you can pay $75 for a tree if you want.. the local youth art theater does this as a fundraiser, and you can go direct to the farm and pay this as an "experience", but that price at a big box store, wow...
pastorhudson 6y ago
I was pretty surprised that Quarter Pine was featured in this article. We get our tree from them every year. I paid $60 for the tree and gave the guy who loaded it $5 tip. The cool thing about Quarter Pine is they suspend the tree and drill a hole in the bottom of the trunk. They sell a special stand with a peg you put the tree on. It’s the slickest experience I’ve had with a real tree stand.
- MivLives 6y ago
  Everyone who discovers that type stand never goes back. The majority of places around here do it. Some with a drill which isn't always the best.
rdj 6y ago
Timely. We just, as in a few hours ago, wrapped up our season as owners of a u-cut tree farm. It's relatively small, just under 30 acres. But our family was just doing a post-mortem on what went well, what we need to change and making fairly detailed plans for next year and even several years out. I can tell you more then you want to know about the growing, spring/summer and fall care. The shaping. The labor to trim, drill, bag, etc. It's fascinating to see the impact 2008 had on planting and the resulting shortage of trees these past couple of years. I don't have any real point other than, been there, doing that, have the t-shirt, ask me anything. Oh, and this part of the farm is basically a side hustle to my normal 9-5 infosec job. Merry Christmas!
- fairity 6y ago
  How do you expect market share between artificial and real trees to trend going forward? From the outside looking in, the market share graph in the article seemed like cause for concern for farmers like yourself.
  - rdj 6y ago
    This gets into a bigger conversation about business models. For us, we are selling an experience that includes a tree. Artificial trees will not be able to replace that. But selling an experience is a low volume game and the revenue has to either be made up in price or via the addition of alternative revenue streams.
- fach 6y ago
  What's the strategy (both logistically and financially) for dealing with the 8-10 year maturity cycle of the trees? Also, I'd imagine it provides some moat for preventing new competition into the market.
  - rdj 6y ago
    For us, the biggest issue is trying to forecast what additional non-agricultural projects we may be starting in the near future that would be adversely impacted by a specific piece of land being tied up for 10 years. For example, we're building an event center (weddings, meetings, etc) that will also include outdoor space. As we work through what that will be like, we have to anticipate how that outdoor space would be used if there are trees there or not. Other than that specific example, we try to anticipate sales volumes and then map out the experience...then order, plant and maintain new trees accordingly.
jmchuster 6y ago
I still very much enjoy my $20 fold-up tree from Walgreens with built-in lights. Just set up the stand, unfold it, and plug it in. And stores conveniently back in the original box, which even has a little plastic handle on it.
- Tokkemon 6y ago
  I mean, if you don't have high decorating standards, then more power to you.
throwaway287391 6y ago
So it takes 8-10 years to grow a tree to maturity, and the profit margin for the farmer is $8-10 per tree. A farmer grows a tree for me to make a dollar per year. This is staggering to think about to me. Unreal.
- infinitone 6y ago
  Agreed... i don't understand why anyone would be in this business...
  - Tokkemon 6y ago
    It brings joy to millions of people every year?
- sgtnoodle 6y ago
  Presumably, the revenue is paying folks' wages, including the farmer if they do a share of the work. The profit in that sense is a return on investment, rather than the farmer's compensation. They business could make no profit but still give the farmer a healthy living.
- gnopgnip 6y ago
  At 6x6 spacing that is 1200 trees per acre. A 40 acre farm would give you nearly $50k a year in income. You can do this on fields that would not be suitable for most other crops, the startup costs are not out of reach for many. Trees used for lumber generally take 25+ years to harvest, the returns are generally lower.
etothepii 6y ago
A Christmas tree here in Bermuda will cost North if $200 and come with an 8 hour queue so sadly this year we've passed. I would have paid $300 though to avoid the queue.
- patentatt 6y ago
  If I recall, Hawaii has a similar situation, where residents wait for “the Christmas tree boat” to arrive with all the Christmas trees for the whole island.
  - supernova87a 6y ago
    Are they worse for wear, given the week-long (?) journey to get there?
    - etothepii 6y ago
      I think they've been ok generally. I think it's only a couple days from new jersey by boat. The main issue this year has been strikes on the docks.
- sneak 6y ago
  Why not go for an artificial one, then?! They look just the same, and will last many years, without annual waste and cost, and are less of a fire hazard.
  - etothepii 6y ago
    This is a good question. I could say, "an artificial tree won't make the house smell as nice", but I think this would be dishonest. Ultimately it's because I like the tradition, if we had children I would have queued up for 8+ hours to get one as decorating the tree is one of my fondest memories from childhood. An artificial tree just wouldn't spark joy in the same way.
acalzycalzy 6y ago
The economics of economics
ExcavateGrandMa 6y ago
here someone as done christmas tree out of wood sticks and rope... she put all sticks in parallel with the longer one starting from bottom to the short one at top all attached together... no Idea if u get the thing... anyway FUCk christmas :)
- shard 6y ago
  Apparently that's the new style of space saving Christmas tree this year (something like https://www.lovethispic.com/uploaded_images/219573-Christmas-Wood-Wall-Tree.jpeg https://www.lovethispic.com/uploaded_images/219573-Christmas...), I've been seeing it in stores both on- and offline. A few years ago it was the string of lights arranged in a tree shaped zigzag on the wall (like https://m.imgur.com/MnfslhA?r https://m.imgur.com/MnfslhA?r).
_carbyau_ 6y ago
I have a 2 yr old and I want him to have a brilliant childhood. But we're not having a pine tree taking up space (we live a in 2bdr apartment), dying and making a mess for no good reason. But then, there are so many Xmas things that don't make sense in Australia.
- yitchelle 6y ago
  > don't make sense in Australia. That comment make me smile. After moving out of Australia to Germany, those crazy things (hot turkey dinners in 45 degC days) started to make sense for me. Enjoy your the Aussie Christmas!
  - _carbyau_ 6y ago
    Thank you for the well wishes. While much Xmas themed stuff doesn't really apply to Australia, thankfully at the moment neither does COVID! So we're pretty well off even before we get to Xmas fun. Enjoy your hot turkey in the colder north! Best wishes for staying safe, well and having a great time with family and friends!
supernova87a 6y ago
Interesting how this is not very much like the petroleum value chain, where the primary producers (oil+gas exploration companies) reap nearly all of the net profit. I wonder if it's because retailers hold a lot of pricing power, and it's a quickly expiring asset, and many producers, and localized markets.
hasbot 6y ago
I bought a tree farm in Oregon in '98 after it had been clearcut. I debated between replanting it with christmas trees vs. timber and I couldn't see how christmas trees penciled out so I'm growing timber. The article mentions $60 for a tree, but here in Oregon I see many lots featuring $35 - $45.
pcmaffey 6y ago
Another alternative: live trees! I normally hunt my own to cut in the hills, but a forest fire burned everything for miles... so we bought a spruce still in its pot from the nursery. It costs more and it’s smaller than our usual, but we’ll plant it outside in the spring when the ground unfreezes (note you can’t plant it after xmas because the temperature shock from coming out of dormancy while inside will kill it).

213 points by Anon84 6y ago

I was just discussing tree farm economics with the guy who runs the farm we bought from this year. Our normal place was closed this year, and he told me a number of his local competitors only opened for one weekend. The trees this year we’re on the short side because of supply issues from the previous years.

psbp 6y ago
This is because of the wildfires in the PNW, right? I remember hearing about this years ago.
- sircastor 6y ago
  I believe it’s actually more related to the economic depression/recession ~2008. Fewer buyers in 2008 meant less space to plant new trees, which means fewer trees reaching maturity for this season. Coupled with a bad few years means more farms closing, meaning fewer trees available for a larger customer base. Though I can’t speak regarding the fires impact on farms.
JKCalhoun 6y ago
Also was just musing about this since we cut a tree for Christmas yesterday. I was feeling a but guilty harvesting a tree every year, wondering if fake was the way to go. Reading the article made me wonder if neither choice was a good one. It does look like "U-Cut" trees are cutting out the middleman(person) and putting money straight into the farmer's pocket. At $65 that's a much healthier profit margin than the $8-$10 they get selling to wholesalers. And I suppose if there were made-in-the-USA fake trees that too could stimulate the local (U.S.) economy ... but that doesn't appear to be the case.
- paulryanrogers 6y ago
  Maybe buy a used artificial one, or just ask friends and relatives of they're getting rid of one? For years I used my grandfather's old artificial tree. It's probably seen 30+ years of service and was still functional when we upgraded.
- cm2012 6y ago
  Every single thing you buy has the same economics. It's not really a moral thing to worry about. Retailers are not evil for taking a cut, they have a very competitive business as well. Plus the farms are quite sustainable, there's no risk of overfarming Christmas trees.
- aynsof 6y ago
  I do wonder how the expert in the article came up with the assertion that fake was now environmentally friendly than real. Surely shipping a pile of plastic from China is worse for the environment than growing a real tree for 10 years. Even if the plastic lasts for a decade, and the alternative is to buy 10 real trees over that same time period, I'd have thought the natural option would be better for the planet.
  - jeromegv 6y ago
    I haven't made the math... but those plastic trees are much smaller and lighter than the real ones (and have a very standard size in a box that can be very well optimized), so shipping them from China on a container boat + container train + keeping them 10 years might not be that bad comparing to what is required to transport those natural trees every single year on trucks often across borders (lots of tree farms in Canada shipping to the US) + complicated transport OUT at the end of the season. Obviously you have to add the positive impact of having a tree growing and the CO2 they process. Just wanted to chime that it might not be that obvious what is really more eco-friendly. I'm speaking as someone who would obviously prefer the plastic-free solution.
  - stilisstuk 6y ago
    I am going to buy a replantable pottgrown tree this year. I've read plastic trees needs to be used 14 years in order to be more eco friendly than cutting a new tree every year.

cm2012 6y ago

This is a great article.

cptskippy 6y ago
I wish they explored the ACTA claims that artificial Christmas trees are more environmentally friendly than real trees. Artificial trees are made from PVC and the by products of PVC manufacturing are highly toxic and historically highly polluting. In order for that claim to be true under China's lax regulatory environment, either they have some revolutionary new method of producing PVC or farming Christmas trees is highly polluting. Either way, I would love to know the answer. Sadly it's probably just a lie as the head of the ACTA is an artificial tree mogul.
- bombcar 6y ago
  I suspect the disconnect is that the average fake tree is NOT used for ten years - probably closer to one.
  - ghaff 6y ago
    That seems an odd claim though I can't disprove it. Why would I buy an artificial tree every year and have to dispose of it every year. I mostly have a small artificial tree (along with a very old pre-decorated even smaller one) because it's a nice thing I can grab from my attic, put up in a few minutes, and stick a few decorations on it. I did the live tree thing for a while after I bought a house and my neighbor even has a Christmas tree farm now. But, absent kids and not usually in the habit of throwing Christmas parties, I'm just not inclined to put a lot of energy into decorating for Christmas. Having to buy an artificial tree every year would sort of see to defeat the purpose of saving effort.
  - cptskippy 6y ago
    Every year seems excessive. I know people who've replaced artificial trees every three or so years because they don't take care of their things, but I also know people who use things until they fall apart so I could see 10 years being the average between the two kinds of people.

Slartie 6y ago

This is really interesting. There seems to be a significant difference between the US Christmas Tree economy and the one in Germany. We got our tree for this year a week ago directly from a grower in the local area where we always buy our trees. It is of average size (the 6'-7' size is also what we mostly consider a good size over here) and it only cost us 30€, so our prices here seem to be significantly lower than in the US. Also, I don't know anybody here who has a fake plastic tree - these aren't really a thing here, basically people either don't have a tree at all, or they get a real one.

sheeeep86 6y ago
We got our 1,7m large Christmas tree in Germany for 13 Euros, I simply don't understand how it could have been worth to let it grow for many years at this price.
- Aeolun 6y ago
  To be fair, agricultural land is relatively cheap. And you basically just leave the tree there for 10 years, so maybe it works out?
  - throwaway201103 6y ago
    TFA mentions regular trimming/shaping, and fertilizing.
- tpmx 6y ago
  Perhaps grown in e.g. Poland where land and manpower is lower priced, compared to Germany? Ikea Sweden used to sell similar-priced christmas trees "farmed" in Denmark, but they stopped doing that after accusations that they were undermining local suppliers of non-herbicide-grown christmas trees. (In Sweden christmas trees tend to be expensive in cities and cheap/free in the countryside.)
  - Scoundreller 6y ago
    Ikea has some loss leaders. Christmas probably isn’t busy for them since there’s not a lot of real estate turnover in December. I once ran the numbers for their tealights and I couldn’t even buy bulk wax that cheaply.

nostromo 6y ago

I'll take this opportunity to share this cool video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=08K_aEajzNA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=08K_aEajzNA

blakesterz 6y ago
WOW! I know very little about what it takes to fly a helicopter, but I know it ain't easy. That is some amazing flying.
raviolo 6y ago
Could be the same pilots who do cherry drying: https://youtu.be/UBe9GEhc7pE https://youtu.be/UBe9GEhc7pE
- dlgeek 6y ago
  So, I was fascinated by that video and kept asking myself "wait, that's a thing?". I found this great article by the pilot of the video that talks about the practice and economics of cherry drying: https://blog.aopa.org/aopa/tag/cherry-drying/ https://blog.aopa.org/aopa/tag/cherry-drying/

davidw 6y ago

We're fortunate to live near a national forest here in Oregon where we can get a $5 permit, and go cut our own tree. They're not so 'perfect' looking, but it's a fun family experience.

silexia 6y ago

I run a Christmas tree farm at a small scale. I wonder if real Christmas trees are actually worse for the environment than fake trees as many real Christmas trees are burned rather than sent to a landfill?

enriquto 6y ago
Does it really make a difference to burn wood than to throw it away? I guess that after decomposition of the wood, all its carbon goes back to the atmosphere. It is just slower than if you burned it. The biosphere is a closed cycle, we cannot probably use it to store carbon away by means of its own mechanism. Main problem is that we are adding new fossil carbon into it every day.
- cm2012 6y ago
  I've heard the opposite for global warming - burial is excellent for carbon capture (delays carbon release for a long time), burning is awful (releases carbon into the atmosphere instantly).
  - enriquto 6y ago
    Interesting, it makes sense. Do you know what are the involved timescales here? How long before the buried wood is decomposed and has released most of its carbon back? Is it 50 years or 5000? Maybe it depends a lot on the type of soil? EDIT: as the sibling comment observes, burning the tree cannot be "awful", as all the carbon from that tree came from the atmosphere. Growing and burning a tree is the epitome of carbon-neutral thing to do. Now, burying a tree may have a positive (non-neutral) effect.
    - Pfhreak 6y ago
      It really depends on the local conditions. A log on the surface, in an area with things that will eat it (e.g. fungi, bacteria, termites, and other decomposers) will fairly readily give up its carbon. If it gets covered, and spends time in a cold, anaerobic environment, there will be nothing to return it to the atmosphere. Decomposition can eventually stall out entirely, allowing it (given enough time and compression) to form coal or oil. I'm very interested in wood gas pyrolosis, a process that pulls burnable fuel from wood and produces almost pure carbon as a byproduct. The gas could be used to generate electricity or heat, and the carbon could be buried in old mines. I suspect the economics just aren't there for it yet, (or the process doesn't scale to the numbers we'd need for large scale de-carbonization).

mensetmanusman 6y ago

This process is a great carbon sink opportunity when you think about it so long as the tree is buried. Plastic trees should be disincentivized in that regard. We need more tree harvesting + landfill themed activities.

JumpCrisscross 6y ago

Has anyone tried selling the plots in advance? Pay e.g. $49 today for a tree in ten years?

mNovak 6y ago
For that matter, I assume there are christmas tree futures being traded?
- gruez 6y ago
  Probably not, otherwise the dip in production after 2008 wouldn't have happened.
sneak 6y ago
Startup idea: 10 year christmas tree subscription contract. (Bonus points if you make it an ISA.)

fortran77 6y ago

My city, Sunnyvale, CA, has "free" tree disposal. I once complained to the City about why I had to subsidize someone else's religion. The answer made sense: the trees would be dumped if the city didn't collect them.

lotsofpulp 6y ago
Christmas trees are not religious, and is about as secular of a tradition as it gets.
- fortran77 6y ago
  All due respect, but you're free to observe your religion, I'm free to observe mine. Without forcing my opinions down other people's throats. That's what makes America great. A Christmas tree has no place in my home.
  - jdlshore 6y ago
    > All due respect, but You’re not being respectful; you’re ignoring lotsofpulp’s point, reposting your own, and being more aggressive about it.
missedthecue 6y ago
These aren't communion chalices. Christmas trees have no religious significance.
- legolas2412 6y ago
  The name literally includes "christ"
  - sofal 6y ago
    And Thursday is literally named after the god Thor. What's your point?
  - 6y ago

julianlam 6y ago

> At an average retail price of $75 a pop, these trees make up a $2B+-per-year business. Good lord, is this true? Why are they so bloody expensive south of Canada? We paid $25 for a Christmas tree from IKEA, and we got a $25 coupon to spend in the new year, which essentially made it free. I mean, you can pay $75 for a tree if you want.. the local youth art theater does this as a fundraiser, and you can go direct to the farm and pay this as an "experience", but that price at a big box store, wow...

pastorhudson 6y ago

I was pretty surprised that Quarter Pine was featured in this article. We get our tree from them every year. I paid $60 for the tree and gave the guy who loaded it $5 tip. The cool thing about Quarter Pine is they suspend the tree and drill a hole in the bottom of the trunk. They sell a special stand with a peg you put the tree on. It’s the slickest experience I’ve had with a real tree stand.

MivLives 6y ago
Everyone who discovers that type stand never goes back. The majority of places around here do it. Some with a drill which isn't always the best.

rdj 6y ago

Timely. We just, as in a few hours ago, wrapped up our season as owners of a u-cut tree farm. It's relatively small, just under 30 acres. But our family was just doing a post-mortem on what went well, what we need to change and making fairly detailed plans for next year and even several years out. I can tell you more then you want to know about the growing, spring/summer and fall care. The shaping. The labor to trim, drill, bag, etc. It's fascinating to see the impact 2008 had on planting and the resulting shortage of trees these past couple of years. I don't have any real point other than, been there, doing that, have the t-shirt, ask me anything. Oh, and this part of the farm is basically a side hustle to my normal 9-5 infosec job. Merry Christmas!

fairity 6y ago
How do you expect market share between artificial and real trees to trend going forward? From the outside looking in, the market share graph in the article seemed like cause for concern for farmers like yourself.
- rdj 6y ago
  This gets into a bigger conversation about business models. For us, we are selling an experience that includes a tree. Artificial trees will not be able to replace that. But selling an experience is a low volume game and the revenue has to either be made up in price or via the addition of alternative revenue streams.
fach 6y ago
What's the strategy (both logistically and financially) for dealing with the 8-10 year maturity cycle of the trees? Also, I'd imagine it provides some moat for preventing new competition into the market.
- rdj 6y ago
  For us, the biggest issue is trying to forecast what additional non-agricultural projects we may be starting in the near future that would be adversely impacted by a specific piece of land being tied up for 10 years. For example, we're building an event center (weddings, meetings, etc) that will also include outdoor space. As we work through what that will be like, we have to anticipate how that outdoor space would be used if there are trees there or not. Other than that specific example, we try to anticipate sales volumes and then map out the experience...then order, plant and maintain new trees accordingly.

jmchuster 6y ago

I still very much enjoy my $20 fold-up tree from Walgreens with built-in lights. Just set up the stand, unfold it, and plug it in. And stores conveniently back in the original box, which even has a little plastic handle on it.

Tokkemon 6y ago
I mean, if you don't have high decorating standards, then more power to you.

throwaway287391 6y ago

So it takes 8-10 years to grow a tree to maturity, and the profit margin for the farmer is $8-10 per tree. A farmer grows a tree for me to make a dollar per year. This is staggering to think about to me. Unreal.

infinitone 6y ago
Agreed... i don't understand why anyone would be in this business...
- Tokkemon 6y ago
  It brings joy to millions of people every year?
sgtnoodle 6y ago
Presumably, the revenue is paying folks' wages, including the farmer if they do a share of the work. The profit in that sense is a return on investment, rather than the farmer's compensation. They business could make no profit but still give the farmer a healthy living.
gnopgnip 6y ago
At 6x6 spacing that is 1200 trees per acre. A 40 acre farm would give you nearly $50k a year in income. You can do this on fields that would not be suitable for most other crops, the startup costs are not out of reach for many. Trees used for lumber generally take 25+ years to harvest, the returns are generally lower.

etothepii 6y ago

A Christmas tree here in Bermuda will cost North if $200 and come with an 8 hour queue so sadly this year we've passed. I would have paid $300 though to avoid the queue.

patentatt 6y ago
If I recall, Hawaii has a similar situation, where residents wait for “the Christmas tree boat” to arrive with all the Christmas trees for the whole island.
- supernova87a 6y ago
  Are they worse for wear, given the week-long (?) journey to get there?
  - etothepii 6y ago
    I think they've been ok generally. I think it's only a couple days from new jersey by boat. The main issue this year has been strikes on the docks.
sneak 6y ago
Why not go for an artificial one, then?! They look just the same, and will last many years, without annual waste and cost, and are less of a fire hazard.
- etothepii 6y ago
  This is a good question. I could say, "an artificial tree won't make the house smell as nice", but I think this would be dishonest. Ultimately it's because I like the tradition, if we had children I would have queued up for 8+ hours to get one as decorating the tree is one of my fondest memories from childhood. An artificial tree just wouldn't spark joy in the same way.

acalzycalzy 6y ago

The economics of economics

ExcavateGrandMa 6y ago

here someone as done christmas tree out of wood sticks and rope... she put all sticks in parallel with the longer one starting from bottom to the short one at top all attached together... no Idea if u get the thing... anyway FUCk christmas :)

shard 6y ago
Apparently that's the new style of space saving Christmas tree this year (something like https://www.lovethispic.com/uploaded_images/219573-Christmas-Wood-Wall-Tree.jpeg https://www.lovethispic.com/uploaded_images/219573-Christmas...), I've been seeing it in stores both on- and offline. A few years ago it was the string of lights arranged in a tree shaped zigzag on the wall (like https://m.imgur.com/MnfslhA?r https://m.imgur.com/MnfslhA?r).

_carbyau_ 6y ago

I have a 2 yr old and I want him to have a brilliant childhood. But we're not having a pine tree taking up space (we live a in 2bdr apartment), dying and making a mess for no good reason. But then, there are so many Xmas things that don't make sense in Australia.

yitchelle 6y ago
> don't make sense in Australia. That comment make me smile. After moving out of Australia to Germany, those crazy things (hot turkey dinners in 45 degC days) started to make sense for me. Enjoy your the Aussie Christmas!
- _carbyau_ 6y ago
  Thank you for the well wishes. While much Xmas themed stuff doesn't really apply to Australia, thankfully at the moment neither does COVID! So we're pretty well off even before we get to Xmas fun. Enjoy your hot turkey in the colder north! Best wishes for staying safe, well and having a great time with family and friends!

supernova87a 6y ago

Interesting how this is not very much like the petroleum value chain, where the primary producers (oil+gas exploration companies) reap nearly all of the net profit. I wonder if it's because retailers hold a lot of pricing power, and it's a quickly expiring asset, and many producers, and localized markets.

hasbot 6y ago

I bought a tree farm in Oregon in '98 after it had been clearcut. I debated between replanting it with christmas trees vs. timber and I couldn't see how christmas trees penciled out so I'm growing timber. The article mentions $60 for a tree, but here in Oregon I see many lots featuring $35 - $45.

pcmaffey 6y ago

Another alternative: live trees! I normally hunt my own to cut in the hills, but a forest fire burned everything for miles... so we bought a spruce still in its pot from the nursery. It costs more and it’s smaller than our usual, but we’ll plant it outside in the spring when the ground unfreezes (note you can’t plant it after xmas because the temperature shock from coming out of dormancy while inside will kill it).