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You have to look at the excess deaths figures. That is, how many usually dies from January to June in a normal year and compare that to how many extra that died

You have to look at the excess deaths figures. That is, how many usually dies from January to June in a normal year and compare that to how many extra that died in 2020. For Sweden the excess deaths almost exactly matches the number of Covid deaths, give or take 10%. That is not the case for many other countries. For example, the UK had almost twice the number of excess deaths as Covid deaths in a few weeks in April. That indicates that Covid deaths were under reported in the UK. There are also some indications that Covid deaths have been under reported in other countries. In other words, comparing countries by their Covid deaths/capita rates is meaningless. The statistics are likely completely wrong because different countries use different definitions of "Covid deaths" and different reporting procedures. https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2020/may/29/excess-deaths-uk-has-one-highest-levels-europe https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2020/may/29...

leto_ii 6y ago
This is an important observation. In the Netherlands, where I live, I've had a number of people look at me with great surprise and mistrust when I mentioned that the Dutch have done a terrible job with this epidemic. The Guardian plots show that the Netherlands is one of the worst when it comes to under-reporting. This is not to say however that the Swedes have done a good job. While their numbers are credible, their magnitude is still unacceptably large: 0.5/1000 Swedes have so far died of the corona virus.
- londons_explore 6y ago
  In an average year, 13/1000 Swedes die anyway. Considering COVID has closed many of life's fun things, there will be an entire generation of people who have effectively "lost" a year of the things they hoped they would do in their lifetime. By stating open, Sweden might decrease life expectancy in years, but increase it in terms of 'things achieved in a lifetime'
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - wbronitsky 6y ago
    The argument that some people die so it’s ok if more people die is not only horrific, but it makes very little sense.
    - VectorLock 6y ago
      The argument that "its okay for more of other people to die so some people don't miss out on some fun" I find even more abhorrent.
      - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
        It's an argument you have to accept on some level, unless you propose to make more radical changes to society. How many thousands of people could we have saved from car accidents in 2019 by banning nonessential driving?
        VectorLock 6y ago
        At a fundamental level, yes. By degree of magnitude not even in the same galaxy. If you take a 200 million mile road trip you might contribute to one death, vs. going to a party and risk contracting and spreading a pandemic that has has already claimed hundreds of thousands of lives.
        gridlockd 6y ago
        Remember, the game plan that virologists came up with for COVID acknowledged that most people will get it eventually. The point of the lockdowns was not to eliminate spread, which is impossible, but to not overwhelm the system.
        pas 6y ago
        The plan is/was also to understand it, find effective protocols for managing it, etc. (And we also have pretty good chances of coming up with a vaccine in about 1 year.) It's not "just the same amount of death, but slower, so the crematoriums don't get overwhelmed".
  - SomeoneFromCA 6y ago
    Such an odd argument. I wonder how would you reply to such a statement when you reach 65 years of age.
    - ralph84 6y ago
      At age 65 (or any age) I'd evaluate my risk and modify my own activities. I wouldn't even dream of asking others to give up their work or school or favorite activities because of my own frailty.
      - glofish 6y ago
        this is exactly how see it as well. My mother is 77 at risk from COVID - does she expect the neighbors kid not go to school to keep her "safe"? Or that a 20 year old not have fun at the beach from now on so that she is "safe"? Of course not, not a least bit, and she told me that herself. I admire her for it. I agree as well. Everyone is responsible for themselves.
        risaacs99 6y ago
        Not sending kids to school is about keeping the teachers, administrators, and their dependents and contacts safe. It's about grandparents who care for the children and would be at risk. I don't think it's about your mom.
        glofish 6y ago
        now that there really captures the groupthink that permeates government actions someone's mom and people in general only matter if they are scared if they are not scared then they have no rights, their opinion does not matter and they must do what the scared people want, being scared and weak gives you more rights than being strong
        SomeoneFromCA 6y ago
        Sounds like some propaganda for hillbillies.
  - leto_ii 6y ago
    > In an average year, 13/1000 Swedes die anyway. Yes, people die. That's true of all countries and all times. What we might call civilized societies have however strived to reduce those numbers as much as possible. This was done by trying to avoid violence, improving lifestyles and developing better medical techniques in order to prevent or repair diseases and injuries. Containing and minimizing the effects of a pandemic is just one aspect of what we might call a civilized attitude towards human life. Conversely, not doing so is uncivilized and I might add immoral and irresponsible. > there will be an entire generation of people who have effectively "lost" a year of the things they hoped they would do in their lifetime This almost doesn't merit a reply. A few months of not going to festivals and the cinema is by no measure a catastrophe. It's not fun, but suggesting that your right to fun should trump others' right to life is, again, uncivilized, immoral and irresponsible.
    - revnode 6y ago
      > Containing and minimizing the effects of a pandemic is just one aspect of what we might call a civilized attitude towards human life. Conversely, not doing so is uncivilized and I might add immoral and irresponsible. This is acting under the assumption that something can be done, that the thing done is effective, or for that matter, isn't harmful. There were, of course, many things done. Were all of them effective? Were some of them harmful? Doing something harmful, like for example forcefully depriving many of a livelihood during a pandemic, can be considered immoral and irresponsible.
      - leto_ii 6y ago
        There are many ways of mitigating the harmful effects of the lock down. State aid targeted directly towards individuals (and not corporations) is a good idea, I think. The same goes for a freeze on mortgage payments, rents, evictions etc. These are all measures that a modern state can take to prevent people from suffering economically.
        revnode 6y ago
        > There are many ways of mitigating the harmful effects of the lock down. State aid targeted directly towards individuals (and not corporations) is a good idea, I think. The same goes for a freeze on mortgage payments, rents, evictions etc. I think it's a bad idea to have people with little understanding of economics, but a high sense of moral superiority, fix the problems they create through their incompetence. Politicians are the last people you want doing this. Freeze evictions? Landlords go bust. Freeze mortgages? Mortgage servicers go bust. Now what? Mortgages when created are aggregated into securities with guaranteed contractual payments. No payments? What happens to the securities and the organizations that own them? Banks, pensions, retirement accounts, etc? What happens to the mortgage market and the young family who needs to buy their first home? Actions have consequences. It's nice to have ideas over the internet, but reality is a bit more complicated.
  - emiliobumachar 6y ago
    Keep in mind that years of life lost by dying sooner are actually a complete loss, while a year in quarantine is still partially lived. It varies a lot from person to person. If it was all about yourself, what do you think would be a reasonable exchange rate?
    - username90 6y ago
      The exchange rate for the most successful lock-downs of corona is about 60 years of lock-down for 1 year of life. Edit: Note that USA is doing much worse since so many are dying there even though you lock down.
      - whatshisface 6y ago
        It's not possible to calculate that exchange rate, because you don't have access to the counterfactual. You're not taking the ratio of lockdown years to years lost to deaths, right? Both of those belong in the expenses side...
        username90 6y ago
        Sweden didn't lock down, that is the typical worst case you would get. So lives saved is the deaths per pop in Sweden compared to deaths per pop where you are.
        ptr 6y ago
        The picture you’re painting doesn’t represent reality — there were definitely lock downs (mostly related to elderly care, but also to varying degrees for the general public). People have worked from home since February.
        jonathanstrange 6y ago
        No, Sweden has an exceptionally low population density. You cannot just grab a country and take it as a model for any other country. The same measures as in Sweden would lead to a catastrophe in many other countries.
  - Smithalicious 6y ago
    Now tell this to the people dying painful deaths after a horrible battle on a respirator. Your death will not be in vain, because we prevented people from "losing" a year of getting frequent haircuts and going to events! Human wellbeing is not fungible. It is not acceptable to let a significant portion of people suffer to prevent a moderate inconvenience to a larger group of people.
  - sjg007 6y ago
    Well... not if it was travel related.
  - kingkawn 6y ago
    Where did the virus come from? How did it arise? Is it deadlier than we realize? Will it remain what we see now? Does it target specific populations? Do children have unexpected long terms side effects of having it? Will it wipe out the entirety of the elderly if we allow it to circulate? Will people get reinfected by it after a short time or long time? How rapidly will it mutate to become deadlier? How rapidly less so? How many will die in the meantime? There too much unknown to dismiss what this disease can do.
  - somewhereoutth 6y ago
    We have been very lucky in the EU - the 'other narrative' was concentrated in Sweden, so all we had to do was wall them off.
  - cma 6y ago
    In New Zealand, who took the opposite strategy of Sweden, they can open now and aren't losing a year.
    - alvah 6y ago
      New Zealand hasn't even begun dealing with Covid-19 yet, unless their plan is to keep the borders closed permanently, or at least until the development of the first vaccine in history for any coronavirus. They are probably the farthest away from reaching herd immunity of any developed country.
      - nradov 6y ago
        Their plan is to require a strict quarantine for all arrivals from overseas. That will be permanent, at least until an effective vaccine is available. It may work, at the cost of their tourism industry.
        makomk 6y ago
        Emphasis strongly on the "may" - we've seen how well that worked in Australia, which is now having to gradually impose lockdowns.
        cma 6y ago
        How about Vietnam. Extensive contact tracing during each new flare up. Only 400 cases or so. It is extremely cheap to control it early.
  - _jahh 6y ago
    can we get past the deaths anyway, like 20% of people are going to have weeks if not months of below average capabilities plus some unknown percentage of lung damage. Everyone keeps forgetting this is a NOVEL virus, between rare severe impacts to children, there have been neurological any circulatory issues so saying it only matters to the people who die I think is ludicrously naive.
  - simonh 6y ago
    Studies like this show that this is a false choice, there is no real option to 'choose the economy' for example. As we saw from studies of the Spanish Flu, cities with late and light lockdowns actually suffered more economically than cities that locked down earlier and tighter because the effects of an un checked (or less well managed) outbreak that lasted longer were so devastating. More people sick and dying is a huge drag on activity, including all the people that have to look after them, and people self-isolate anyway out of fear. Pandemics like this are a juggernaut, there's no real option to ignore and carry on.
  - agarttha 6y ago
    Here is an analysis of how many people die due to confinement vs COVID. https://theconversation.com/is-the-covid-19-pandemic-cure-really-worse-than-the-disease-heres-what-our-research-found-141700 https://theconversation.com/is-the-covid-19-pandemic-cure-re...
  - rurban 6y ago
    During a Swedish flu season 1800 die per week. I haven't seen this number yet in this year's flu season.
    - SomeoneFromCA 6y ago
      really? a link?
      - rurban 6y ago
        Just lookup the health ministry yearly flu reports. Also very informative for Italy. http://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/publicerat-material/publikationsarkiv/i/influenza-in-sweden/ http://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/publicerat-material/publi...
        jaxaan 6y ago
        In 2000 the overall total deaths was actually higher then Corona this year. That even though the population was smaller back then. And a few years earlier it also was a be ad flue year. Actually the current death rate are lower for last month then the mean value of previous 5 years same month. But I guess that doesn't fit the common view of how it should be in Sweden. Nor that the total death rate are in pair with Denmark and lower then Finland, with much harder lockdown.
- nradov 6y ago
  What is the criteria for defining an acceptable number of deaths?
  - ncallaway 6y ago
    I would generally go for "as few as possible given the circumstances". Given how much higher they are over other nations—even taking into account excess deaths—I would say they have failed that metric.
    - 345218435 6y ago
      bull. shit. plot yourself the numbers. their website is available in english. https://twitter.com/haraldofw/status/1280383315871236096?s=21 https://twitter.com/haraldofw/status/1280383315871236096?s=2...
    - 345218435 6y ago
      thanks for the downvotes. what a leftist liberal light-skinned cesspool hn has degraded to. this community should be ashamed of the unwelcoming and hostile circle it fosters.
    - arcticbull 6y ago
      You cannot know that until after the pandemic is over. The Swedes are betting that nobody in the world will be spared from COVID and therefore the delta in deaths is temporary. They are front-loading it while attempting to keep the economic impacts as low as possible. They anticipate the rest of the world will be contending with shutdowns, re-openings, shutdowns, re-openings, and when all is said and done, the death rate per capita will be the same the world over. So far, they the Swedes have bet one way, much of the rest of the world has bet the other way. Time will tell, but it is much too soon to make that judgment today.
      - freyr 6y ago
        > The Swedes are betting that nobody in the world will be spared from COVID It's also a bet that medical treatments won't improve and a vaccine won't be developed.
- 345218435 6y ago
  the church of covid is a cult. get out. get perspective and truth. https://twitter.com/haraldofw/status/1280383315871236096?s=21 https://twitter.com/haraldofw/status/1280383315871236096?s=2...
  - tenuousemphasis 6y ago
    LOL
  - tspike 6y ago
    The stats in the tweet you linked are quite detailed and interesting. Perhaps your message would be better received if put in a less abrasive package?
  - redisman 6y ago
    I was curious. Not very convincing data. Mortality has gone down in Sweden in the long term so covid is not actually a big deal? I don’t see the connection
- brnt 6y ago
  The Dutch think of their healthcare as the Brits think of their NHS. It's more faith than fact. I find it impossible to have a reasonable discussion on the subject, even people in healthcare (I worked in a famous Dutch hospital). People are dug in, evidence-based medicine is a tool to improve statistics first, patient care second, and nobody knows what anything actually costs, despite the national DBC-accounting system which was invented for insurers. Hint: not even the Dutch statistics bureau can tell you what the total cost of Dutch healthcare is. I've heard this is very politicized issue, all behind the scenes of course.
  - pasabagi 6y ago
    I think the NHS was at one point very good, especially in terms of price/performance ratio. What you see now is the result of over a decade of governments that have a fundamental antipathy towards any kind of public service, and who consider the NHS as an obstacle that must be torn down before a more private system can be established. The difference in quality of care is visible, and the policies the system must work under essentially amount to sabotage.
ptx 6y ago
Taiwan has 7 COVID-19 deaths[1]. It seems far-fetched to suppose that they would be somehow covering up the 12000 additional deaths that would be required to reach Sweden's per-capita numbers. South Korea would have had to neglect to report 99% of COVID-19 deaths. [1] https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- bjourne 6y ago
  True. And Sweden stands out when you compare it to other Nordic countries. My point is only that you can't draw too many conclusions from just looking at leaderboards at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ and similar sites.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- latchkey 6y ago
  Vietnam is zero deaths and <400 total (most of those were imported), with no new infections in 80+ days. At first, I thought it was the govt covering something up, but after so many months, along with closely monitoring things, I trust their numbers. It is literally a source of national pride for them to have done so well, it would be very hard for them to hide things. Quarantine, masks, isolation, cleaning, testing, contact tracing. ALL WORKED.
  - tux1968 6y ago
    What if next year a more virulent strand of Covid comes along that kills almost everyone in the world who didn't get exposed to Covid-19. Will you still consider their measures as ALL WORKING? We have no idea how the future is going to unfold. Everyone is faking it while demanding that everyone do as they say.
    - TheOtherHobbes 6y ago
amiga_500 6y ago
This is particularly bad for the UK as our numbers were already dire. Some may be due to the halt of the NHS for other stuff.
neuronexmachina 6y ago
Btw, here's a couple charts similar to the one you posted that have been updated more recently: * https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronav... * https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441 https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06...
- sampo 6y ago
  EU has a project to track excess mortality: EuroMOMO. They have time series for countries: https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/#z-scores-by-country https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/#z-scores-by-country Here is how they explain what the z-score is: https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score/ https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score/
cs702 6y ago
> In other words, comparing countries by their Covid deaths/capita rates is meaningless. The statistics are likely completely wrong because different countries use different definitions of "Covid deaths" and different reporting procedures. Very true. At the other end of the spectrum, consider North Korea, which is apparently reporting ZERO Covid-19 deaths and also ZERO Covid-19 cases, so its official infection and mortality rates are 0% and 0%.[a] If we were to judge only by those official figures, it would appear the country has done a truly incredible job at combating Covid-19. [a] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-northkorea/kim-jong-un-says-north-korea-prevented-coronavirus-from-making-inroads-idUSKBN2433BC https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-northk...
bosie 6y ago
Considering that the health care systems were partially shut down too, how do you determine that covid was the culprit rather a change in the health care system for those counted as excess deaths?
- sixo 6y ago
  Those are covid deaths
  - throwaway0a5e 6y ago
    No. Those are "reaction to COVID" deaths or just normal deaths. If you order an island evacuated because of an impending natural disaster and some people die in the evacuation they died from the evacuation, not the disaster. Just because your actions are lowering the overall body count doesn't mean the deaths are the fault of whatever disaster the people died avoiding.
jariel 6y ago
Sweden still did very poorly on that basis especially compared to it's most direct 'peer' - Denmark. The differences are quite a lot and worthy of consideration.
- bjoli 6y ago
  Yet the numbers in Copenhagen and the Malmö region are comparable despite having very different policies. The population density is about the same (although the density characteristics are not).
croes 6y ago
It's bit early to compare death figures. We are in the middle of a pandemic. A second wave can change the numbers. My main problem with the swedish way is, that it all depends on building herd immunity without even knowing if an infection leads to a long term immunity neither do we know the long term effects of an corona infection. Studies found lung damages in people with mild symptoms, if these will heal or be permanent is unknown. Also other long term effects are unknown. For examlpe the corona virus just has to raise the probability of lung cancer and the swedish way will have severe consequences.
m0zg 6y ago
FYI also, using CDC data the number of US excess deaths (all causes) nearly exactly matches the number of COVID fatalities (excluding periods where "excess deaths" turned out to be negative). Would be cool to tally this up for all countries, to see who's lying about their COVID numbers. Source of data: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
WalterBright 6y ago
I've seen similar large errors in statistics on infant mortality. Different countries define it very differently, for example a different line between a miscarriage and infant mortality.
tomohawk 6y ago
Exactly. In addition, Sweden reached zero excess mortality at the end of May. https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid
screye 6y ago
Additionally, we must also look at what percent of the population is at high risk. India is a way younger country than Sweden. This means, with the exact same deathrate-by-age India would see far fewer deaths-per-capita with all else being constant.
sanj 6y ago
That article (which is 6 weeks old) disagrees with your point: “The data also shows that in Sweden, which has adopted a different approach with no lockdown in place, excess deaths peaked at 46%.”
GuB-42 6y ago
There is excess mortality in Sweden https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ It is not the highest in Europe but it is very noticeable. In contrast, the surrounding countries of Finland, Norway and Denmark show almost nothing. As for which figures to take, we don't know, they are all wrong. Each country has a different way of counting depending on what they think is important. For example hospital deaths are very consistent. Hospitals generally have good reporting, testing, etc... good to see daily evolution, but it is an underestimate. Recorded deaths from nursing homes and at home are less reliable. Sometimes, there is no testing, so we are not 100% sure it is COVID, there may also be delays. The picture is now more complete but you lose a bit of consistency. Excess mortality reporting can also have long delays, and it doesn't care about COVID at all, so things like behavior change under lockdown can have an effect, the advantage is that it is the least likely indicator to miss anything. And if you look at all the numbers, we can split Europe into the bad (Italy, UK, France, Spain, ...) and the good (Norway, Finland, Denmark, ...). And by all metrics, Sweden is in the "bad" camp.
- _-___________-_ 6y ago
  If you read the comment you replied to again, you'll note that they didn't claim there was no excess mortality in Sweden. I'll quote the relevant bit here for you: > For Sweden the excess deaths almost exactly matches the number of Covid deaths, give or take 10%.
  - jobigoud 6y ago
    And they are saying that a good match between excess mortality and reported Covid death is not, in itself, an argument to say that Sweden is doing a good job. It has more excess mortality than its neighbors even if these might be underreporting Covid death so this argument is not exactly relevant.
    - close04 6y ago
      The implication is that Sweden is doing a great job with the reporting. I think the whole point of OP's comment was that the statistics are meaningless because many countries skew the reporting, while Sweden does not. > The statistics are likely completely wrong because different countries use different definitions of "Covid deaths" and different reporting procedures.
jeffbee 6y ago
Comparing disease outcomes at all is futile because they are incredibly sensitive to initial conditions. One sick person travelling in January made all the difference.
- claudeganon 6y ago
  The serious outbreaks in the US and South Korea began at the same time. Arguably, South Korea’s circumstances were worse because there’s was driven by a secretive cult that hid their illness and misled contract tracers. Look at where both countries are today. An immediate, thorough response makes all the difference.
  - jeffbee 6y ago
    Also just not having any initial sick people and closing the airports works great. Your "at the same time" statement is off by a few days and off by a few days makes a huge difference in outbreak severity. That's why you need to keep in mind that small numbers of infected people and seemingly short time intervals change the result radically.
    - claudeganon 6y ago
      Do you honestly believe the difference between South Korea and the US’ outcomes is those few days? The difference in response on any dimension between the two countries, from their testing to contract tracing to on-demand hospital expansions is so staggering as to make this claim absurd. I’m not sure what you’re talking about with airports. South Korea has had less incoming travel restrictions than the US.
      - jeffbee 6y ago
        I was referring to New Zealand. I don't think comparing SK to USA is nonsense but I do think comparing Sweden to China or New Zealand to USA is complete nonsense. If anyone feels compelled to do so they need to realize they are cherry-picking and compare NZ to Utah instead.
newacct583 6y ago
> You have to look at [confounding factor] [... therefore] In other words, comparing countries by their Covid deaths/capita rates is meaningless. Sorry, that's wrong. The fact that there is uncertainty in data (which there always is) doesn't mean we can't make legitimate inferences from the data we have. Sweden is clearly, via many metrics (INCLUDING excess deaths), experiencing very elevated mortality rates due to covid. That's just obvious. No, the science isn't done yet (and won't be for years, probably) to nail down exactly how much they're seeing. But we can ballpark it pretty well, and it's bad.
malandrew 6y ago
I'm curious what we'll see years down the line. If there are excess deaths now and this disease disproportionately impacts the elderly, the assumption likely is that it's mostly picking people off early and that 1+ years from now we should observe a deaths deficit relative to the baseline years of 2018-2019. From there we should be able to start calculating the cumulative years of life lost.
- kolinko 6y ago
  So far the countries that got infections under control returned to baseline excess mortality.
  - malandrew 6y ago
    That's what I would expect if they got it under control quickly. It's the countries where it has gone wild for several months, especially in long term care facilities, where I would expect the drop in future months/years.
- LandR 6y ago
  Scotland last week was back to being below our 5 year average for deaths.
volume 6y ago
> In other words, comparing countries by their Covid deaths/capita rates is meaningless. The statistics are likely completely wrong because different countries use different definitions of "Covid deaths" and different reporting procedures. Sounds a lot like comparing sprint velocities between engineering groups.
cyrksoft 6y ago
How can you attribute every excess death to covid alone, at least directly? There are many countries where family violence has increased, alcohol consumption, suicide, etc. I don’t think every excessive death can be attributed to covid.
- refurb 6y ago
  Not only that, but if you have a patient in a hospice with stage 4 lung cancer who dies and tests positive for Covid, does that go in the "Covid death" bucket? Honest question. I don't know the answer. I assume it's left up the physician's judgement?
  - eCa 6y ago
    In Sweden, yes. If you have tested positive within 30 days before dying, that is counted as a COVID-19 death.
    - cyrksoft 6y ago
      No matter what the cause of death might be? So if I have a heart attack or die from cancer it counts as COVID-19?
  - takeda 6y ago
    COVID-19 doesn't kill on its own, but weakens your body that other diseases kill you. The most common way of killing is pneumonia, which is basically done after it weakens your body other bacteria that you otherwise would be safe from steps in and kills you. Another common symptom is causing blood clotting, so some people died of stroke. Yes, maybe that stage 4 lung cancer patient would die anyway, but then there are other deaths that are covid-19 but aren't counted. In fact no one would count is as covid cause in such obvious scenario. BTW: also it's exactly the opposite to what you're trying to imply[1]. [1] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/07/200701125506.htm https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/07/200701125506.h...
  - thu2111 6y ago
    It's not left up to physician's judgement, it's mandated that all such deaths are reported as COVID-19 deaths. This is based on WHO guidance. This has upset a lot of physicians and pathologists, exactly because their own judgement is being overridden and they know it's broken the statistics completely. In the UK they are calling for a systematic review of all deaths attributed to COVID: https://www.hsj.co.uk/coronavirus/systematic-reviews-to-discover-true-cause-of-outbreak-deaths/7027491.article https://www.hsj.co.uk/coronavirus/systematic-reviews-to-disc... The COVID death counts are hopelessly over-counted. This is why there's a cottage industry of people pointing out things like "COVID deaths" which mysteriously also suffered from being murdered, or drug overdoses, or undiagnosed leukaemia. Then you get into the problem of care homes being authorised to report COVID deaths without any testing or formally trained opinion at all. In France, as soon as there is a "suspected case" in a nursing home (e.g. due to coughing), all deaths are considered "suspected Covid19 deaths", and as soon as there is a "confirmed case" in a nursing home (even if symptomless), all deaths are considered "confirmed Covid19 deaths": https://covidinfos.net/covid19/deces-dus-au-covid-19-le-nombre-officiel-de-morts-en-france-est-il-surestime/502/ https://covidinfos.net/covid19/deces-dus-au-covid-19-le-nomb... Over-counting of COVID is absolutely rampant. The top voted post on this thread is claiming that all excess deaths must be caused by COVID, as if shutting down hospitals have no impact. In reality: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/25/nhs-treatment-delays-linked-child-deaths-coronavirus/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/25/nhs-treatment-de... "More children died after failing to get timely medical treatment during lockdown than lost their lives because of coronavirus, new research by the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health (RCPCH) suggests." Of course the numbers for children are small. For older people it's more extreme. In the UK emergency ward admissions halved, including for cardiac arrests. There's now a backlog of 2.4 million cancer patients awaiting diagnosis or treatment. The excess deaths from lockdowns will be with us for a long time.
nabla9 6y ago
Extra deaths don't have to come from underreported covid deaths. For example suicides and untreated medical conditions during social distancing and lockdowns can increase the number of deaths.
- eliaspro 6y ago
  While reduced traffic and thereby fewer road accidents, fewer transmissions of influenza etc possibly reduce the number of fatalities. This goes both ways and getting really meaningful numbers might be quite hard.
  - ashtonkem 6y ago
    And comparing statistics from different countries is difficult under the best of times due to differences in definition, reporting quality, etc. For something as polarized as COVID? Good luck.
- WrtCdEvrydy 6y ago
  > suicides and untreated medical conditions during social distancing and lockdowns can increase the number of deaths. And why did we need social distancing and lockdowns? was it just to have people blow their heads off?
  - lottin 6y ago
    Obviously it was intended to combat the virus. That doesn't mean it's the only, let alone the best, course of action.
    - ashtonkem 6y ago
      And even if it was the best course of action, that doesn’t mean there won’t be unintended consequences.
- notatoad 6y ago
  there are additional deaths that can be attributed to the lockdown, as well as some reductions in deaths that can be attributed to the lockdown. but neither are anything close to on the same scale as people actually dying of covid. there's obviously some margin of error, but it's pretty safe to treat the unattributed excess deaths as being caused by covid-19
ljf 6y ago
I agree measuring excess deaths is wise, as it also measures those 'killed by the lock down' who couldn't get chemo etc. I am very pro lockdown, but that means we need the clear numbers all the more. Sweden is currently seeing 20 to 25% more deaths in year that they would in a standard year. Though their covid deaths have slowed so that will likely be around 10 percent by the end of the year if they don't see further waves.
- kolinko 6y ago
  Contries that early lockdowns had statistically insignificant excess deaths. So all those caused by lockdowns are insignificant compared to covid. Also, lockdown saved people’s lives in other way - less accidents etc.
  - ljf 6y ago
    I agree, but realistically we need to use the blunt number of excess deaths, as each country is handling the tracking of covid deaths so differently. And it also helps show if the lockdown caused issues - by comparing against other causes of desth where countries have been tracking covid deaths in a meaningful and repeated way. As I say, I believe lockdown, esp in the way that NZ/Australia/Vietnam/South Korea did - is the way forward - the more proof we have for that, the better. I feel UK started too late, didn't put tracking in place, and gave very confused messaging. As an island nation, we should have had a head start in protecting our people but it feels like the economy was put first.
    - thu2111 6y ago
      Australia is locking people in tower blocks without warning, including people who were only visiting and thus have nowhere to sleep, including people who have run out of food. Even friends trying to deliver food were turned away. https://news.google.com/search?q=australia%20tower%20block&hl=en-GB&gl=GB&ceid=GB%3Aen https://news.google.com/search?q=australia%20tower%20block&h... It's completely insane, unbelievably nasty, truly evil. The virus is not dangerous. I'll repeat: the virus is not dangerous. Excess deaths in the UK, relatively badly hit by a series of bad decisions, matches the famous plague of 1999/2000. You probably don't remember that one, because nothing happened. NZ meanwhile is now terrified of re-opening their borders in the belief that this NOT DANGEROUS virus can be kept out forever. They have no plan for how to do this without going full-on North Korea. It's also incredibly self destructive. The Virus Is Not Dangerous.
anderstornqvist 6y ago
I could also indicate that the excess deaths is due to the lockdown or from how a country are handling the Covid-19 pandemic, i.e. not handling other cases in time.
pfortuny 6y ago
Thank you! There is some (epidemiologist) Spanish guy (I am writing from Spain) telling the Swedes that they were “overconfident”. I look at the nunbers and think: this guy is at the very least dishonest.
teekert 6y ago
This, and we have to look at the sum of all deaths when Covid19 dies out. Maybe they did just go through it faster than other countries, but also gain group immunity faster and have faster economic recovery. Too early to tell I think. Edit: A flattened curve may still have the same surface below it. Did Sweden keep it below critical IC capacity (are they keeping it there)? I guess that is an important thing to know.

leto_ii 6y ago

This is an important observation. In the Netherlands, where I live, I've had a number of people look at me with great surprise and mistrust when I mentioned that the Dutch have done a terrible job with this epidemic. The Guardian plots show that the Netherlands is one of the worst when it comes to under-reporting. This is not to say however that the Swedes have done a good job. While their numbers are credible, their magnitude is still unacceptably large: 0.5/1000 Swedes have so far died of the corona virus.

londons_explore 6y ago
In an average year, 13/1000 Swedes die anyway. Considering COVID has closed many of life's fun things, there will be an entire generation of people who have effectively "lost" a year of the things they hoped they would do in their lifetime. By stating open, Sweden might decrease life expectancy in years, but increase it in terms of 'things achieved in a lifetime'
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- wbronitsky 6y ago
  The argument that some people die so it’s ok if more people die is not only horrific, but it makes very little sense.
  - VectorLock 6y ago
    The argument that "its okay for more of other people to die so some people don't miss out on some fun" I find even more abhorrent.
    - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
      It's an argument you have to accept on some level, unless you propose to make more radical changes to society. How many thousands of people could we have saved from car accidents in 2019 by banning nonessential driving?
      - VectorLock 6y ago
        At a fundamental level, yes. By degree of magnitude not even in the same galaxy. If you take a 200 million mile road trip you might contribute to one death, vs. going to a party and risk contracting and spreading a pandemic that has has already claimed hundreds of thousands of lives.
        gridlockd 6y ago
        Remember, the game plan that virologists came up with for COVID acknowledged that most people will get it eventually. The point of the lockdowns was not to eliminate spread, which is impossible, but to not overwhelm the system.
        pas 6y ago
        The plan is/was also to understand it, find effective protocols for managing it, etc. (And we also have pretty good chances of coming up with a vaccine in about 1 year.) It's not "just the same amount of death, but slower, so the crematoriums don't get overwhelmed".
- SomeoneFromCA 6y ago
  Such an odd argument. I wonder how would you reply to such a statement when you reach 65 years of age.
  - ralph84 6y ago
    At age 65 (or any age) I'd evaluate my risk and modify my own activities. I wouldn't even dream of asking others to give up their work or school or favorite activities because of my own frailty.
    - glofish 6y ago
      this is exactly how see it as well. My mother is 77 at risk from COVID - does she expect the neighbors kid not go to school to keep her "safe"? Or that a 20 year old not have fun at the beach from now on so that she is "safe"? Of course not, not a least bit, and she told me that herself. I admire her for it. I agree as well. Everyone is responsible for themselves.
      - risaacs99 6y ago
        Not sending kids to school is about keeping the teachers, administrators, and their dependents and contacts safe. It's about grandparents who care for the children and would be at risk. I don't think it's about your mom.
        glofish 6y ago
        now that there really captures the groupthink that permeates government actions someone's mom and people in general only matter if they are scared if they are not scared then they have no rights, their opinion does not matter and they must do what the scared people want, being scared and weak gives you more rights than being strong
        SomeoneFromCA 6y ago
        Sounds like some propaganda for hillbillies.
- leto_ii 6y ago
  > In an average year, 13/1000 Swedes die anyway. Yes, people die. That's true of all countries and all times. What we might call civilized societies have however strived to reduce those numbers as much as possible. This was done by trying to avoid violence, improving lifestyles and developing better medical techniques in order to prevent or repair diseases and injuries. Containing and minimizing the effects of a pandemic is just one aspect of what we might call a civilized attitude towards human life. Conversely, not doing so is uncivilized and I might add immoral and irresponsible. > there will be an entire generation of people who have effectively "lost" a year of the things they hoped they would do in their lifetime This almost doesn't merit a reply. A few months of not going to festivals and the cinema is by no measure a catastrophe. It's not fun, but suggesting that your right to fun should trump others' right to life is, again, uncivilized, immoral and irresponsible.
  - revnode 6y ago
    > Containing and minimizing the effects of a pandemic is just one aspect of what we might call a civilized attitude towards human life. Conversely, not doing so is uncivilized and I might add immoral and irresponsible. This is acting under the assumption that something can be done, that the thing done is effective, or for that matter, isn't harmful. There were, of course, many things done. Were all of them effective? Were some of them harmful? Doing something harmful, like for example forcefully depriving many of a livelihood during a pandemic, can be considered immoral and irresponsible.
    - leto_ii 6y ago
      There are many ways of mitigating the harmful effects of the lock down. State aid targeted directly towards individuals (and not corporations) is a good idea, I think. The same goes for a freeze on mortgage payments, rents, evictions etc. These are all measures that a modern state can take to prevent people from suffering economically.
      - revnode 6y ago
        > There are many ways of mitigating the harmful effects of the lock down. State aid targeted directly towards individuals (and not corporations) is a good idea, I think. The same goes for a freeze on mortgage payments, rents, evictions etc. I think it's a bad idea to have people with little understanding of economics, but a high sense of moral superiority, fix the problems they create through their incompetence. Politicians are the last people you want doing this. Freeze evictions? Landlords go bust. Freeze mortgages? Mortgage servicers go bust. Now what? Mortgages when created are aggregated into securities with guaranteed contractual payments. No payments? What happens to the securities and the organizations that own them? Banks, pensions, retirement accounts, etc? What happens to the mortgage market and the young family who needs to buy their first home? Actions have consequences. It's nice to have ideas over the internet, but reality is a bit more complicated.
- emiliobumachar 6y ago
  Keep in mind that years of life lost by dying sooner are actually a complete loss, while a year in quarantine is still partially lived. It varies a lot from person to person. If it was all about yourself, what do you think would be a reasonable exchange rate?
  - username90 6y ago
    The exchange rate for the most successful lock-downs of corona is about 60 years of lock-down for 1 year of life. Edit: Note that USA is doing much worse since so many are dying there even though you lock down.
    - whatshisface 6y ago
      It's not possible to calculate that exchange rate, because you don't have access to the counterfactual. You're not taking the ratio of lockdown years to years lost to deaths, right? Both of those belong in the expenses side...
      - username90 6y ago
        Sweden didn't lock down, that is the typical worst case you would get. So lives saved is the deaths per pop in Sweden compared to deaths per pop where you are.
        ptr 6y ago
        The picture you’re painting doesn’t represent reality — there were definitely lock downs (mostly related to elderly care, but also to varying degrees for the general public). People have worked from home since February.
        jonathanstrange 6y ago
        No, Sweden has an exceptionally low population density. You cannot just grab a country and take it as a model for any other country. The same measures as in Sweden would lead to a catastrophe in many other countries.
- Smithalicious 6y ago
  Now tell this to the people dying painful deaths after a horrible battle on a respirator. Your death will not be in vain, because we prevented people from "losing" a year of getting frequent haircuts and going to events! Human wellbeing is not fungible. It is not acceptable to let a significant portion of people suffer to prevent a moderate inconvenience to a larger group of people.
- sjg007 6y ago
  Well... not if it was travel related.
- kingkawn 6y ago
  Where did the virus come from? How did it arise? Is it deadlier than we realize? Will it remain what we see now? Does it target specific populations? Do children have unexpected long terms side effects of having it? Will it wipe out the entirety of the elderly if we allow it to circulate? Will people get reinfected by it after a short time or long time? How rapidly will it mutate to become deadlier? How rapidly less so? How many will die in the meantime? There too much unknown to dismiss what this disease can do.
- somewhereoutth 6y ago
  We have been very lucky in the EU - the 'other narrative' was concentrated in Sweden, so all we had to do was wall them off.
- cma 6y ago
  In New Zealand, who took the opposite strategy of Sweden, they can open now and aren't losing a year.
  - alvah 6y ago
    New Zealand hasn't even begun dealing with Covid-19 yet, unless their plan is to keep the borders closed permanently, or at least until the development of the first vaccine in history for any coronavirus. They are probably the farthest away from reaching herd immunity of any developed country.
    - nradov 6y ago
      Their plan is to require a strict quarantine for all arrivals from overseas. That will be permanent, at least until an effective vaccine is available. It may work, at the cost of their tourism industry.
      - makomk 6y ago
        Emphasis strongly on the "may" - we've seen how well that worked in Australia, which is now having to gradually impose lockdowns.
        cma 6y ago
        How about Vietnam. Extensive contact tracing during each new flare up. Only 400 cases or so. It is extremely cheap to control it early.
- _jahh 6y ago
  can we get past the deaths anyway, like 20% of people are going to have weeks if not months of below average capabilities plus some unknown percentage of lung damage. Everyone keeps forgetting this is a NOVEL virus, between rare severe impacts to children, there have been neurological any circulatory issues so saying it only matters to the people who die I think is ludicrously naive.
- simonh 6y ago
  Studies like this show that this is a false choice, there is no real option to 'choose the economy' for example. As we saw from studies of the Spanish Flu, cities with late and light lockdowns actually suffered more economically than cities that locked down earlier and tighter because the effects of an un checked (or less well managed) outbreak that lasted longer were so devastating. More people sick and dying is a huge drag on activity, including all the people that have to look after them, and people self-isolate anyway out of fear. Pandemics like this are a juggernaut, there's no real option to ignore and carry on.
- agarttha 6y ago
  Here is an analysis of how many people die due to confinement vs COVID. https://theconversation.com/is-the-covid-19-pandemic-cure-really-worse-than-the-disease-heres-what-our-research-found-141700 https://theconversation.com/is-the-covid-19-pandemic-cure-re...
- rurban 6y ago
  During a Swedish flu season 1800 die per week. I haven't seen this number yet in this year's flu season.
  - SomeoneFromCA 6y ago
    really? a link?
    - rurban 6y ago
      Just lookup the health ministry yearly flu reports. Also very informative for Italy. http://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/publicerat-material/publikationsarkiv/i/influenza-in-sweden/ http://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/publicerat-material/publi...
      - jaxaan 6y ago
        In 2000 the overall total deaths was actually higher then Corona this year. That even though the population was smaller back then. And a few years earlier it also was a be ad flue year. Actually the current death rate are lower for last month then the mean value of previous 5 years same month. But I guess that doesn't fit the common view of how it should be in Sweden. Nor that the total death rate are in pair with Denmark and lower then Finland, with much harder lockdown.
nradov 6y ago
What is the criteria for defining an acceptable number of deaths?
- ncallaway 6y ago
  I would generally go for "as few as possible given the circumstances". Given how much higher they are over other nations—even taking into account excess deaths—I would say they have failed that metric.
  - 345218435 6y ago
    bull. shit. plot yourself the numbers. their website is available in english. https://twitter.com/haraldofw/status/1280383315871236096?s=21 https://twitter.com/haraldofw/status/1280383315871236096?s=2...
  - 345218435 6y ago
    thanks for the downvotes. what a leftist liberal light-skinned cesspool hn has degraded to. this community should be ashamed of the unwelcoming and hostile circle it fosters.
  - arcticbull 6y ago
    You cannot know that until after the pandemic is over. The Swedes are betting that nobody in the world will be spared from COVID and therefore the delta in deaths is temporary. They are front-loading it while attempting to keep the economic impacts as low as possible. They anticipate the rest of the world will be contending with shutdowns, re-openings, shutdowns, re-openings, and when all is said and done, the death rate per capita will be the same the world over. So far, they the Swedes have bet one way, much of the rest of the world has bet the other way. Time will tell, but it is much too soon to make that judgment today.
    - freyr 6y ago
      > The Swedes are betting that nobody in the world will be spared from COVID It's also a bet that medical treatments won't improve and a vaccine won't be developed.
345218435 6y ago
the church of covid is a cult. get out. get perspective and truth. https://twitter.com/haraldofw/status/1280383315871236096?s=21 https://twitter.com/haraldofw/status/1280383315871236096?s=2...
- tenuousemphasis 6y ago
  LOL
- tspike 6y ago
  The stats in the tweet you linked are quite detailed and interesting. Perhaps your message would be better received if put in a less abrasive package?
- redisman 6y ago
  I was curious. Not very convincing data. Mortality has gone down in Sweden in the long term so covid is not actually a big deal? I don’t see the connection
brnt 6y ago
The Dutch think of their healthcare as the Brits think of their NHS. It's more faith than fact. I find it impossible to have a reasonable discussion on the subject, even people in healthcare (I worked in a famous Dutch hospital). People are dug in, evidence-based medicine is a tool to improve statistics first, patient care second, and nobody knows what anything actually costs, despite the national DBC-accounting system which was invented for insurers. Hint: not even the Dutch statistics bureau can tell you what the total cost of Dutch healthcare is. I've heard this is very politicized issue, all behind the scenes of course.
- pasabagi 6y ago
  I think the NHS was at one point very good, especially in terms of price/performance ratio. What you see now is the result of over a decade of governments that have a fundamental antipathy towards any kind of public service, and who consider the NHS as an obstacle that must be torn down before a more private system can be established. The difference in quality of care is visible, and the policies the system must work under essentially amount to sabotage.

ptx 6y ago

Taiwan has 7 COVID-19 deaths[1]. It seems far-fetched to suppose that they would be somehow covering up the 12000 additional deaths that would be required to reach Sweden's per-capita numbers. South Korea would have had to neglect to report 99% of COVID-19 deaths. [1] https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En

deleted 6y ago
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bjourne 6y ago
True. And Sweden stands out when you compare it to other Nordic countries. My point is only that you can't draw too many conclusions from just looking at leaderboards at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ and similar sites.
deleted 6y ago
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latchkey 6y ago
Vietnam is zero deaths and <400 total (most of those were imported), with no new infections in 80+ days. At first, I thought it was the govt covering something up, but after so many months, along with closely monitoring things, I trust their numbers. It is literally a source of national pride for them to have done so well, it would be very hard for them to hide things. Quarantine, masks, isolation, cleaning, testing, contact tracing. ALL WORKED.
- tux1968 6y ago
  What if next year a more virulent strand of Covid comes along that kills almost everyone in the world who didn't get exposed to Covid-19. Will you still consider their measures as ALL WORKING? We have no idea how the future is going to unfold. Everyone is faking it while demanding that everyone do as they say.
  - TheOtherHobbes 6y ago

amiga_500 6y ago

This is particularly bad for the UK as our numbers were already dire. Some may be due to the halt of the NHS for other stuff.

neuronexmachina 6y ago

Btw, here's a couple charts similar to the one you posted that have been updated more recently: * https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronav... * https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441 https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06...

sampo 6y ago
EU has a project to track excess mortality: EuroMOMO. They have time series for countries: https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/#z-scores-by-country https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/#z-scores-by-country Here is how they explain what the z-score is: https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score/ https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score/

cs702 6y ago

> In other words, comparing countries by their Covid deaths/capita rates is meaningless. The statistics are likely completely wrong because different countries use different definitions of "Covid deaths" and different reporting procedures. Very true. At the other end of the spectrum, consider North Korea, which is apparently reporting ZERO Covid-19 deaths and also ZERO Covid-19 cases, so its official infection and mortality rates are 0% and 0%.[a] If we were to judge only by those official figures, it would appear the country has done a truly incredible job at combating Covid-19. [a] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-northkorea/kim-jong-un-says-north-korea-prevented-coronavirus-from-making-inroads-idUSKBN2433BC https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-northk...

bosie 6y ago

Considering that the health care systems were partially shut down too, how do you determine that covid was the culprit rather a change in the health care system for those counted as excess deaths?

sixo 6y ago
Those are covid deaths
- throwaway0a5e 6y ago
  No. Those are "reaction to COVID" deaths or just normal deaths. If you order an island evacuated because of an impending natural disaster and some people die in the evacuation they died from the evacuation, not the disaster. Just because your actions are lowering the overall body count doesn't mean the deaths are the fault of whatever disaster the people died avoiding.

jariel 6y ago

Sweden still did very poorly on that basis especially compared to it's most direct 'peer' - Denmark. The differences are quite a lot and worthy of consideration.

bjoli 6y ago
Yet the numbers in Copenhagen and the Malmö region are comparable despite having very different policies. The population density is about the same (although the density characteristics are not).

croes 6y ago

It's bit early to compare death figures. We are in the middle of a pandemic. A second wave can change the numbers. My main problem with the swedish way is, that it all depends on building herd immunity without even knowing if an infection leads to a long term immunity neither do we know the long term effects of an corona infection. Studies found lung damages in people with mild symptoms, if these will heal or be permanent is unknown. Also other long term effects are unknown. For examlpe the corona virus just has to raise the probability of lung cancer and the swedish way will have severe consequences.

m0zg 6y ago

FYI also, using CDC data the number of US excess deaths (all causes) nearly exactly matches the number of COVID fatalities (excluding periods where "excess deaths" turned out to be negative). Would be cool to tally this up for all countries, to see who's lying about their COVID numbers. Source of data: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

WalterBright 6y ago

I've seen similar large errors in statistics on infant mortality. Different countries define it very differently, for example a different line between a miscarriage and infant mortality.

tomohawk 6y ago

Exactly. In addition, Sweden reached zero excess mortality at the end of May. https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

screye 6y ago

Additionally, we must also look at what percent of the population is at high risk. India is a way younger country than Sweden. This means, with the exact same deathrate-by-age India would see far fewer deaths-per-capita with all else being constant.

sanj 6y ago

That article (which is 6 weeks old) disagrees with your point: “The data also shows that in Sweden, which has adopted a different approach with no lockdown in place, excess deaths peaked at 46%.”

GuB-42 6y ago

There is excess mortality in Sweden https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ It is not the highest in Europe but it is very noticeable. In contrast, the surrounding countries of Finland, Norway and Denmark show almost nothing. As for which figures to take, we don't know, they are all wrong. Each country has a different way of counting depending on what they think is important. For example hospital deaths are very consistent. Hospitals generally have good reporting, testing, etc... good to see daily evolution, but it is an underestimate. Recorded deaths from nursing homes and at home are less reliable. Sometimes, there is no testing, so we are not 100% sure it is COVID, there may also be delays. The picture is now more complete but you lose a bit of consistency. Excess mortality reporting can also have long delays, and it doesn't care about COVID at all, so things like behavior change under lockdown can have an effect, the advantage is that it is the least likely indicator to miss anything. And if you look at all the numbers, we can split Europe into the bad (Italy, UK, France, Spain, ...) and the good (Norway, Finland, Denmark, ...). And by all metrics, Sweden is in the "bad" camp.

_-___________-_ 6y ago
If you read the comment you replied to again, you'll note that they didn't claim there was no excess mortality in Sweden. I'll quote the relevant bit here for you: > For Sweden the excess deaths almost exactly matches the number of Covid deaths, give or take 10%.
- jobigoud 6y ago
  And they are saying that a good match between excess mortality and reported Covid death is not, in itself, an argument to say that Sweden is doing a good job. It has more excess mortality than its neighbors even if these might be underreporting Covid death so this argument is not exactly relevant.
  - close04 6y ago
    The implication is that Sweden is doing a great job with the reporting. I think the whole point of OP's comment was that the statistics are meaningless because many countries skew the reporting, while Sweden does not. > The statistics are likely completely wrong because different countries use different definitions of "Covid deaths" and different reporting procedures.

jeffbee 6y ago

Comparing disease outcomes at all is futile because they are incredibly sensitive to initial conditions. One sick person travelling in January made all the difference.

claudeganon 6y ago
The serious outbreaks in the US and South Korea began at the same time. Arguably, South Korea’s circumstances were worse because there’s was driven by a secretive cult that hid their illness and misled contract tracers. Look at where both countries are today. An immediate, thorough response makes all the difference.
- jeffbee 6y ago
  Also just not having any initial sick people and closing the airports works great. Your "at the same time" statement is off by a few days and off by a few days makes a huge difference in outbreak severity. That's why you need to keep in mind that small numbers of infected people and seemingly short time intervals change the result radically.
  - claudeganon 6y ago
    Do you honestly believe the difference between South Korea and the US’ outcomes is those few days? The difference in response on any dimension between the two countries, from their testing to contract tracing to on-demand hospital expansions is so staggering as to make this claim absurd. I’m not sure what you’re talking about with airports. South Korea has had less incoming travel restrictions than the US.
    - jeffbee 6y ago
      I was referring to New Zealand. I don't think comparing SK to USA is nonsense but I do think comparing Sweden to China or New Zealand to USA is complete nonsense. If anyone feels compelled to do so they need to realize they are cherry-picking and compare NZ to Utah instead.

newacct583 6y ago

> You have to look at [confounding factor] [... therefore] In other words, comparing countries by their Covid deaths/capita rates is meaningless. Sorry, that's wrong. The fact that there is uncertainty in data (which there always is) doesn't mean we can't make legitimate inferences from the data we have. Sweden is clearly, via many metrics (INCLUDING excess deaths), experiencing very elevated mortality rates due to covid. That's just obvious. No, the science isn't done yet (and won't be for years, probably) to nail down exactly how much they're seeing. But we can ballpark it pretty well, and it's bad.

malandrew 6y ago

I'm curious what we'll see years down the line. If there are excess deaths now and this disease disproportionately impacts the elderly, the assumption likely is that it's mostly picking people off early and that 1+ years from now we should observe a deaths deficit relative to the baseline years of 2018-2019. From there we should be able to start calculating the cumulative years of life lost.

kolinko 6y ago
So far the countries that got infections under control returned to baseline excess mortality.
- malandrew 6y ago
  That's what I would expect if they got it under control quickly. It's the countries where it has gone wild for several months, especially in long term care facilities, where I would expect the drop in future months/years.
LandR 6y ago
Scotland last week was back to being below our 5 year average for deaths.

volume 6y ago

cyrksoft 6y ago

How can you attribute every excess death to covid alone, at least directly? There are many countries where family violence has increased, alcohol consumption, suicide, etc. I don’t think every excessive death can be attributed to covid.

refurb 6y ago
Not only that, but if you have a patient in a hospice with stage 4 lung cancer who dies and tests positive for Covid, does that go in the "Covid death" bucket? Honest question. I don't know the answer. I assume it's left up the physician's judgement?
- eCa 6y ago
  In Sweden, yes. If you have tested positive within 30 days before dying, that is counted as a COVID-19 death.
  - cyrksoft 6y ago
    No matter what the cause of death might be? So if I have a heart attack or die from cancer it counts as COVID-19?
- takeda 6y ago
  COVID-19 doesn't kill on its own, but weakens your body that other diseases kill you. The most common way of killing is pneumonia, which is basically done after it weakens your body other bacteria that you otherwise would be safe from steps in and kills you. Another common symptom is causing blood clotting, so some people died of stroke. Yes, maybe that stage 4 lung cancer patient would die anyway, but then there are other deaths that are covid-19 but aren't counted. In fact no one would count is as covid cause in such obvious scenario. BTW: also it's exactly the opposite to what you're trying to imply[1]. [1] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/07/200701125506.htm https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/07/200701125506.h...
- thu2111 6y ago
  It's not left up to physician's judgement, it's mandated that all such deaths are reported as COVID-19 deaths. This is based on WHO guidance. This has upset a lot of physicians and pathologists, exactly because their own judgement is being overridden and they know it's broken the statistics completely. In the UK they are calling for a systematic review of all deaths attributed to COVID: https://www.hsj.co.uk/coronavirus/systematic-reviews-to-discover-true-cause-of-outbreak-deaths/7027491.article https://www.hsj.co.uk/coronavirus/systematic-reviews-to-disc... The COVID death counts are hopelessly over-counted. This is why there's a cottage industry of people pointing out things like "COVID deaths" which mysteriously also suffered from being murdered, or drug overdoses, or undiagnosed leukaemia. Then you get into the problem of care homes being authorised to report COVID deaths without any testing or formally trained opinion at all. In France, as soon as there is a "suspected case" in a nursing home (e.g. due to coughing), all deaths are considered "suspected Covid19 deaths", and as soon as there is a "confirmed case" in a nursing home (even if symptomless), all deaths are considered "confirmed Covid19 deaths": https://covidinfos.net/covid19/deces-dus-au-covid-19-le-nombre-officiel-de-morts-en-france-est-il-surestime/502/ https://covidinfos.net/covid19/deces-dus-au-covid-19-le-nomb... Over-counting of COVID is absolutely rampant. The top voted post on this thread is claiming that all excess deaths must be caused by COVID, as if shutting down hospitals have no impact. In reality: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/25/nhs-treatment-delays-linked-child-deaths-coronavirus/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/25/nhs-treatment-de... "More children died after failing to get timely medical treatment during lockdown than lost their lives because of coronavirus, new research by the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health (RCPCH) suggests." Of course the numbers for children are small. For older people it's more extreme. In the UK emergency ward admissions halved, including for cardiac arrests. There's now a backlog of 2.4 million cancer patients awaiting diagnosis or treatment. The excess deaths from lockdowns will be with us for a long time.

nabla9 6y ago

Extra deaths don't have to come from underreported covid deaths. For example suicides and untreated medical conditions during social distancing and lockdowns can increase the number of deaths.

eliaspro 6y ago
While reduced traffic and thereby fewer road accidents, fewer transmissions of influenza etc possibly reduce the number of fatalities. This goes both ways and getting really meaningful numbers might be quite hard.
- ashtonkem 6y ago
  And comparing statistics from different countries is difficult under the best of times due to differences in definition, reporting quality, etc. For something as polarized as COVID? Good luck.
WrtCdEvrydy 6y ago
> suicides and untreated medical conditions during social distancing and lockdowns can increase the number of deaths. And why did we need social distancing and lockdowns? was it just to have people blow their heads off?
- lottin 6y ago
  Obviously it was intended to combat the virus. That doesn't mean it's the only, let alone the best, course of action.
  - ashtonkem 6y ago
    And even if it was the best course of action, that doesn’t mean there won’t be unintended consequences.
notatoad 6y ago
there are additional deaths that can be attributed to the lockdown, as well as some reductions in deaths that can be attributed to the lockdown. but neither are anything close to on the same scale as people actually dying of covid. there's obviously some margin of error, but it's pretty safe to treat the unattributed excess deaths as being caused by covid-19

ljf 6y ago

I agree measuring excess deaths is wise, as it also measures those 'killed by the lock down' who couldn't get chemo etc. I am very pro lockdown, but that means we need the clear numbers all the more. Sweden is currently seeing 20 to 25% more deaths in year that they would in a standard year. Though their covid deaths have slowed so that will likely be around 10 percent by the end of the year if they don't see further waves.

kolinko 6y ago
Contries that early lockdowns had statistically insignificant excess deaths. So all those caused by lockdowns are insignificant compared to covid. Also, lockdown saved people’s lives in other way - less accidents etc.
- ljf 6y ago
  I agree, but realistically we need to use the blunt number of excess deaths, as each country is handling the tracking of covid deaths so differently. And it also helps show if the lockdown caused issues - by comparing against other causes of desth where countries have been tracking covid deaths in a meaningful and repeated way. As I say, I believe lockdown, esp in the way that NZ/Australia/Vietnam/South Korea did - is the way forward - the more proof we have for that, the better. I feel UK started too late, didn't put tracking in place, and gave very confused messaging. As an island nation, we should have had a head start in protecting our people but it feels like the economy was put first.
  - thu2111 6y ago
    Australia is locking people in tower blocks without warning, including people who were only visiting and thus have nowhere to sleep, including people who have run out of food. Even friends trying to deliver food were turned away. https://news.google.com/search?q=australia%20tower%20block&hl=en-GB&gl=GB&ceid=GB%3Aen https://news.google.com/search?q=australia%20tower%20block&h... It's completely insane, unbelievably nasty, truly evil. The virus is not dangerous. I'll repeat: the virus is not dangerous. Excess deaths in the UK, relatively badly hit by a series of bad decisions, matches the famous plague of 1999/2000. You probably don't remember that one, because nothing happened. NZ meanwhile is now terrified of re-opening their borders in the belief that this NOT DANGEROUS virus can be kept out forever. They have no plan for how to do this without going full-on North Korea. It's also incredibly self destructive. The Virus Is Not Dangerous.

anderstornqvist 6y ago

I could also indicate that the excess deaths is due to the lockdown or from how a country are handling the Covid-19 pandemic, i.e. not handling other cases in time.

pfortuny 6y ago

Thank you! There is some (epidemiologist) Spanish guy (I am writing from Spain) telling the Swedes that they were “overconfident”. I look at the nunbers and think: this guy is at the very least dishonest.

teekert 6y ago

This, and we have to look at the sum of all deaths when Covid19 dies out. Maybe they did just go through it faster than other countries, but also gain group immunity faster and have faster economic recovery. Too early to tell I think. Edit: A flattened curve may still have the same surface below it. Did Sweden keep it below critical IC capacity (are they keeping it there)? I guess that is an important thing to know.