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There is no way that people will keep complying for such a long time. I am all for mask wearing and work from home as much as possible but a lockdown for such a

There is no way that people will keep complying for such a long time. I am all for mask wearing and work from home as much as possible but a lockdown for such a long time is crazy. What’s the goal? Flattening the curve or no deaths at all? We will probably see in a few months where things are going but from the stats I have seen so far the connection between lockdowns and lower death rates is not that strong. By now I would have thought that all hell would break loose in Florida but it doesn’t seem to be happening.

Loughla 6y ago
>By now I would have thought that all hell would break loose in Florida but it doesn’t seem to be happening. How long ago did Florida open everything back up? If I remember correctly it was just May 4th? That's only 8 days. This thing lags by two weeks. Put a note on your calendar to check again in 7 days.
- prostoalex 6y ago
  The reference is to all the spring break parties taking place two months ago https://www.local10.com/news/local/2020/03/14/south-florida-beaches-packed-despite-coronavirus-fears-as-spring-break-arrives/ https://www.local10.com/news/local/2020/03/14/south-florida-... Arguably, most of the party-goers were out-of-state, but it also would've been relatively easy for authorities to link a spike in deaths to those events. So far we have not seen the spike take place.
  - fullstop 6y ago
    > Arguably, most of the party-goers were out-of-state, but it also would've been relatively easy for authorities to link a spike in deaths to those events. So far we have not seen the spike take place. How would we know? They are spread across the nation.
  - slg 6y ago
    People on spring break are mostly young and the people they interact with while on spring break are mostly young. You would probably need to look at contacts two or three degrees away from them to notice the spike. Has there been an in depth analysis of the extended network of those people?
    - prostoalex 6y ago
      But even that has a policy implication that stay-at-home order can exempt people of certain age.
      - slg 6y ago
        IANAL, but I imagine a stay-at-home order that is based on age would result in constitutional challenges.
        tick_tock_tick 6y ago
        It's unlikely the current orders would survive any court scrutiny.
        ceejayoz 6y ago
        Where are the emergency injunctions, then?
        harambaebae69 6y ago
        Alameda backed off elon musk pretty fast, probably because they had little legal footing https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/05/13/elon-musk-wins-battle-with-alameda-county-tesla-factory-allowed-to-reopen/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/05/13/elon-m...
      - greglindahl 6y ago
        If a young person goes to a nursing home and infects everyone, is it not connected to spring break unless the old people went to spring break? Keep in mind that the young person might be a medical worker, or in the family of a medical worker.
  - ceejayoz 6y ago
    On 3/14 we had about 3k COVID-19 cases in the US. By the end of April, we had about 200k. Our contact tracing efforts at the time (and now) likely aren't sufficient to tie specific cases back to Florida's spring break, but it's unlikely to have helped.
    - pashamur 6y ago
      We had 3k reported cases, not 3k cases. That's a large difference. I wouldn't be surprised if the actual number of cases from 3/14 was hundreds of thousands. There were 58 deaths reported by 3/14. If you assume that mortality is 1% (probably on the high side, but good enough for estimates), that translates to ~6k cases. However, since we know that deaths lag cases by 1-3 weeks (let's assume 2 weeks for the analysis), we should be looking at deaths two weeks from 3/14, which would be 3/28. By 3/28, there were ~3k deaths from COVID-19, meaning that the true estimate of the number of cases from 3/14 is likely around 270,000 cases (estimate range is 130K - 800K). This also means that there were about 8.5 million cases in the US on May 1st (I happen to think mortality is closer to 0.5%, so that would be ~17 million cases instead), and that we've most likely crossed the 10 (or 20) million case mark by now.
  - mistersquid 6y ago
    > it also would've been relatively easy for authorities to link a spike in deaths to those events. So far we have not seen the spike take place What makes you say it "would've been relatively easy" given contact tracing is not widespread in the US and certainly wasn't during the weeks of US Spring Break (ca. mid-Mar)? In any case, you are mistaken that "we have not seen the spike take place". [0] See, especially, the map "generated by Tectonix GEO and X-Mode Social" about 1/3 of the way down the page. [0] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/florida-spring-break-coronavirus.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/florida-spring-break-c...
    - prostoalex 6y ago
      > What makes you say it "would've been relatively easy" given contact tracing is not widespread in the US Plane tickets were bought, credit card spending took place, cell phone towers were pinged, hotel reservations had names linked to them, relatives, friends or colleagues aware of the whereabouts and can be interviewed post-mortem? For what it's worth, they're able to pinpoint specific parties or night club performances https://www.pasadenastarnews.com/2020/05/09/pasadena-identifies-at-least-5-coronavirus-cases-from-single-birthday-party/ https://www.pasadenastarnews.com/2020/05/09/pasadena-identif... https://ktla.com/news/local-news/former-rancho-palos-verdes-mayors-birthday-bash-at-trump-golf-club-leaves-partygoers-with-coronavirus/ https://ktla.com/news/local-news/former-rancho-palos-verdes-...
      - deleted 6y ago
        [deleted]
  - eloff 6y ago
    We had a big spike in Quebec after spring break as people returned from Florida and France. The province is still the worst in Canada. BC took note and advised people not to travel for spring break (our break here is later). BC is doing very well by comparison.
    - makomk 6y ago
      I'd be a lot more worried about the people returning from France than Florida, they've had a pretty major outbreak.
- timdorr 6y ago
  GA "opened up" salons on 4/24 and restaurants on 4/27. I say that with quotes since many places remain closed for dine-in service. Nonetheless, it's been 2 weeks and we've only seen a slight decrease in case rates: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/georgia-coronavirus-cases.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/georgia-coronavi... Meanwhile, our testing rates have shot up to the ~7500/day range and our positive test rate has gone from ~25% down to 13.2% today: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wrGsD3T_JIvKwsudQwVHnAav_zEKo77a4g263gBNIoM/edit#gid=0 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wrGsD3T_JIvKwsudQwVH...
  - cozzyd 6y ago
    At least for Illinois, models predicted that a May 1 reopening would lead to a very large second peak in June with high probability. See e.g. https://www.chicagobusiness.com/greg-hinz-politics/look-inside-one-models-city-hall-uses-track-how-fast-covid-19-spreads https://www.chicagobusiness.com/greg-hinz-politics/look-insi.... It's more than 2-week lag time due to the time required for R_0 to increase (due to people's habits), a number of generations required to noticed, and the general lag time of the issues.
  - blamestross 6y ago
    I think that is intentionally being manipulated. They are pushing for asymptomatic people to be tested in droves. The % is accurate but the biases in sampling don't make it an apples-to-apples comparison anymore.
  - leesec 6y ago
    This graph shows that things will be slow even when 'reopened' due to human behavior, which means you may not see Covid spikes for a while yet. https://compote.slate.com/images/6e5b79c5-c6db-47ab-95cd-7c9e438ac18c.png?width=780&height=520&rect=1319x879&offset=36x0 https://compote.slate.com/images/6e5b79c5-c6db-47ab-95cd-7c9...
    - __blockcipher__ 6y ago
      This seems like an argument for letting states “reopen” then...
- xienze 6y ago
  > How long ago did Florida open everything back up? If I remember correctly it was just May 4th? Parent is referring to weeks and weeks of predictions that Florida would be utterly decimated because of large Spring Break parties, taking a long time to shut down in the first place, beaches not closing down for a long time, etc. Florida, like apparently everywhere else in the US, has been perpetually “two weeks away” for the past six weeks from becoming New York City.
  - take_a_breath 6y ago
    ==Florida, like apparently everywhere else in the US, has been perpetually “two weeks away” for the past six weeks from becoming New York City.== Almost the exact time most states started stay-at-home orders.
- rburhum 6y ago
  8 days? Hello from Peru! Where I have been in lockdown for 58 days straight and counting...
  - kevinwang 6y ago
    The person you replied to is talking about NOT being on lockdown for the past 8 days.
  - xienze 6y ago
    The eight days is in reference to Florida easing some lockdown restrictions. Most of the US has been under some sort of lockdown since mid to late March.
    - rburhum 6y ago
      With the military outside making sure you stay in or else you get arrested? Not sure my concept of lockdown is the same as yours.
      - Loughla 6y ago
        100% not that. It's more of a suggestion to stay at home. Restaurants and bars are closed to dine-in. Movie theaters and other fun things are closed. We 100% do not have military threatening arrest for going out. At this point, many (rural) police districts and politicians are even saying they won't enforce the stay-home orders anymore. So. Yeah. Not quite the same.
      - deleted 6y ago
        [deleted]
  - jeffbarr 6y ago
    How are things in Peru, COVID-19 wise?? That's my wife's home country and she's not heard a lot about how well (or not) things are going.
    - rburhum 6y ago
- lbeltrame 6y ago
  > That's only 8 days. This thing lags by two weeks. Two weeks is the period within > 99% cases exhibit symptoms. The median incubation is between 4 and 6 days.
  - NotSammyHagar 6y ago
    But the spreading continues, and I can see it taking multiple generations to make a clear trend. It's not like in 2 weeks there are 10x more people, the R0 is not that high. You have to have enough to be noticeable compared to the previous visible amount.
eganist 6y ago
The goal is to stabilize the infection rate and boost healthcare capacity so that some semblance of normality can be resumed without overwhelming the healthcare system. > a lockdown for such a long time is crazy. And people will rebel, and the infection rate will spike yet again, and people will die, and the lockdowns will be imposed with force. Better to listen and understand than to disobey and risk worse. What's the expression? Regulations are written with blood?
- floren 6y ago
  > the lockdowns will be imposed with force. "Comply or be killed" will be an interesting order, I look forward to seeing that one go out.
  - ceejayoz 6y ago
    As much as cops may like to escalate right to the shooting at times, there are a lot of possible levels of force before being shot. Civil tickets. Revocation of business licenses. Fines. Arrests. Tear gas.
    - int_19h 6y ago
      In this particular case, the prevailing political affiliation among cops is more likely to push them in the other direction, e.g.: https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/port-of-seattle-places-cop-on-leave-over-viral-video-discouraging-enforcement-of-states-anti-coronavirus-measures/ https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/port-of-seattle-pl...
  - bitwize 6y ago
    And to minimize the exposure risk to our boys in blue, we'll put ED-209s on every street corner.
    - mixmastamyk 6y ago
      I’d buy THAT for a dollar!
halfmatthalfcat 6y ago
How are you so sure people will stop complying? Is the risk of opening everything up just to shut it down again really worth it? I think people are smarter and more accepting of the status quo than those who are making the most noise. As for those who are overburdened by the lockdown (i.e. lost jobs), its on the governments to provide the safety net until we have everything under control.
- drtillberg 6y ago
  >its on the governments to provide the safety net until we have everything under control. Let's be clear-- there is no true safety net for middle-income professionals. We can draw down savings and cross our fingers that this resume gap doesn't kill a professional career. And that's just the financial and career consequences. There definitely are other consequences of unemployment too. I feel fortunate not to live in L.A. county but the public health response my state is not a lot less draconian. I just am astounded. I would love to wrap everyone and everything in bubble wrap as much as the next person to protect everyone from a very dangerous world but this is too much.
  - gbear605 6y ago
    Resume wise, you’re in the same boat as everyone else
    - drtillberg 6y ago
      Everyone's situation is different. Unemployment isn't 100% and the class of 2021 won't have this gap. Think employers are rational enough to iron that out? Nah, you have more faith than me.
    - fennecfoxen 6y ago
      No, I live in a different city and I am fortunate to still have a job. A different boat exists, and I am in it.
  - ralph84 6y ago
    Careers never fully recover from extended unemployment. There is plenty of research on this from previous downturns.
prostoalex 6y ago
Florida, or Japan (with March photos of crowds enjoying cherry blossoms), or Sweden.
skywhopper 6y ago
They have established objective metrics to use in determining when to loosen restrictions, and there are also procedures in place for partial reopening of restaurants, recreation areas, etc. Your questions are answered in the article.
- georgeburdell 6y ago
  As somebody who has worked in a "data driven" environment, I look forward to health departments re-discovering Goodhart's Law [1] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law
  - mbreese 6y ago
    In this case though, I think it’s okay to have the measure be the target. If people can self-regulate their behavior to fit a certain rate of infection, what’s wrong with that? (Not to mention the infection rate is a really lagging indicator)
    - panzagl 6y ago
      Well, the metric is really no reported deaths...
- Ididntdothis 6y ago
  The bar is extremely high. No deaths for 14 days? That seems almost impossible.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
- cactus2093 6y ago
  I feel like this just needs a better branding. For one thing, across California the stay at home orders have barely been enforced anyway. People are hanging out in parks, even meeting up with friends in parks all the time. So it's been an open secret this whole time that it's more voluntary than an "order". Now with curbside pickup, and restaurants partially opening, it seems like taking another step towards more targeted interventions and away from the broadest stay at home orders. This all seems in line with what anyone would have expected. Anyone who thought that on June 1 when the stay-at-home orders officially end everyone would just jump back into normal life and it would magically be safe clearly hasn't been paying attention. The difference between California and states like Georgia that have "opened up" actually seems to be quite minimal. Some people are taking more risks (which is not really being stopped in either place), the majority are still being very cautious. That's bad news for people hoping that the small businesses that have been financially hurt would spring back immediately, but hopefully good news for where we are in containment of the virus. And, knock on wood, at least for now it seems to be enough to keep the disease spread from ramping back up. I still think it would have been nice to just go all the way with the lockdown from day 1 back in March, actually enforce the rules and keep more people inside, and squashed the curve faster so that by now we'd be a lot more open than we are. But instead we chose the route of making most people only moderately miserable instead for a long time, instead of even slightly more miserable but for a shorter time.
somethoughts 6y ago
It's real world political game theory. The unspoken side benefit (whether intentional or not) here is to limit the government liability in case of health related lawsuits in the future related to opening too soon, which is great as a state taxpayer. Hesitate to bring it up since its so contentious but this is actually probably a huge side benefit of the Alameda County go slow approach. For the interim county health advisor, there's no benefit for going out on a limb and providing the rubber stamp to allow a plant to open as they'd ultimately individually be scape-goated if things went wrong. All politicians above would be free to claim - "I wasn't consulted on such details". Now since the plant is open without full approvals, all legal liability is on the private company for any health issues that arise. In fact the state hasn't really officially said the plant could open and so is free from liability and now that the president has chimed in, the interim county health advisor is completely free from liability. It's a great get out of jail free card, release from liability stance as the individual or company is against government orders.
- pdonis 6y ago
  > The unspoken side benefit (whether intentional or not) here is to limit the government liability If the government wants to limit its liability it should stop telling people what to do and let them decide for themselves. > For the interim county health advisor, there's no benefit for going out on a limb and providing the rubber stamp to allow a plant to open as they'd ultimately individually be scape-goated if things went wrong. So the only alternative is for the government, after imposing the costs of the lockdown on everybody, to simply refuse to accept the costs of reopening?
  - somethoughts 6y ago
    There's still some liability on the state in leaving it interpretable. They will also be called out for lack of leadership if they don't provide guidance. The best political safe alternative for all players involved is to do what's happening now; the government provides a hard line on guidance and then is lax on enforcement and lets the plant re-open and begin production. If it goes well (and hopefully it goes well), it goes well. If it doesn't go well, then people who were advocating taking the risk and with the most to gain if had it gone well, are ultimately responsible for the downside liability. Which seems fair?
sam_goody 6y ago
I have found getting accurate data to be very difficult. I saw one chart which allegedly mapped the effect of the lockdown over four weeks with various various indexes: COVID - significant drop. Death from other medical items - even more significant drop. Death from traffic accidents - even moreso. Number of deaths from suicide - significant jump. From drug overdose - even more significant jump. Number of mental breakdowns and newly diagnosed illnesses - jump. Number of deaths from people not getting care they needed - jump. I cannot find that chart anymore, and when I tried to verify the items, I could not. Anyone who knows the chart I am referring to, or generally reliably sources for these things (and not just COVID deaths), please reply!
- notyourday 6y ago
  If we keep everyone locked up all the time all kinds of deaths will drop!
  - sam_goody 6y ago
    But if the deaths from suicide, drug overdose, delayed medical care, ulcers and other stress related sicknesses, and abuse are enough, they will offset those numbers. If the drop into poverty as people lose jobs create slums, gangs, and muggings, there will be a lot more deaths, and those will also offset the numbers. So, even quality of life aside, I am not sure we come out ahead even on saving lives. I would like data though, since anyone can speculate. Can someone point to real data?
    - creaghpatr 6y ago
      >But if the deaths from suicide, drug overdose, delayed medical care, ulcers and other stress related sicknesses, and abuse are enough, they will offset those numbers Not if they get counted as a COVID death. You better believe that drug overdose death is getting a test if there's federal reimbursement in play.
    - jddj 6y ago
      It's a common speculation, but employment (and recreation, regular life, going outdoors) actually kills a lot of people. Every % rise of unemployment in Europe during the financial crisis resulted in a 3.5% drop in all cause mortality, and that includes a ~35% increase in suicides. We can probably extrapolate that for a scenario where business as usual also kills a good amount more people due to a pandemic. Clearly the US, being the US, could be different due to cultural differences in how the poor and underemployed are treated. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0091743514001224 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S009174351...
jvanderbot 6y ago
The connection between influx of new COVID cases, deaths, and safe-from-home is pretty clear from looking at the daily new cases, which flattened exactly two weeks after lockdown began. Look here at the general US statistics: https://covid19info.live/us/ https://covid19info.live/us/
virmundi 6y ago
It is. People are still getting sick. They are dying in greater numbers. They are getting Vitamin D which actually helps with fighting. But they are mildly discomforted.
11235813213455 6y ago
I don't know the goal, but I see plenty indirect benefits in lockdowns around the world, and hope they'll happen more often, like for a heatwave or a pollution peak, to give nature a needed break
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
NotSammyHagar 6y ago
The goal is drastically cut down both deaths and hospitalizations. There are various estimates for how to get to herd immunity, 50% of population has to have it, up to 75%. The current estimates for how many people die ranges from 0.3% (3/1000) to 0.5%. A lot more end up in the hospital, perhaps 5-10x more than those who die, I don't have as good a number for this. [1] has good info. 330 million * 50% * 0.005 = 825k die. 5-10x in the hospital is 4 million to 8 million. Those are big impacts. Some people want to argue the next thing "those are mostly old people or sick people", so too bad for them? 1. IHME, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
- throwaway122378 6y ago
  IHME’s projections have been extremely inaccurate so you can’t take that one and throw it out
  - throwaway122378 6y ago
    Downvoted for the truth? What is this Reddit? Go look at all of IHME’s predictions and the actual numbers. Way off.
- DuskStar 6y ago
  > Some people want to argue the next thing "those are mostly old people or sick people", so too bad for them? The argument re: old/sick people is a combination of "these people have fewer years left to live anyways, making deaths less impactful" and "this is a smaller subset of the population that can be isolated while the rest are set free".
- alexbanks 6y ago
  It's probably not the best use of time to cite data referencing 300 million people spread across almost 4 million square miles. Each state, and really each county, is its own unique circumstance/set of data.
- subsubzero 6y ago
  Since there are no wide scale antibody testing in most of the US due to lack of coordination/faulty health system perhaps we can look at closed systems to ascertain the true death rate. Looking at Lompac prison it appears that 70% of the inmates have tested positive for covid-19 [1]. If the remainder of the inmates are tested, a somewhat accurate death rate can be found. I feel like the only people that should quarantine should be pre-existing medical conditions and the very old, but want to see hard data to back this up, interesting info from the linked article, "The vast majority of positive individuals report minor or no symptoms" I don't know how soon from positive test to infection these cases are as well as the age distribution at the prison but this should be looked at regardless. [1] https://beta.trimread.com/articles/14804 https://beta.trimread.com/articles/14804
jedberg 6y ago
> What’s the goal? A 14 day decline in new cases while maintaining a testing rate 200/100,000.
- whalesalad 6y ago
  Hasn't it already been demonstrated that it is impossible to test at these numbers? Furthermore, due to relaxed mnufacturing requirements, something like 50% of the tests are completely unreliable/inaccurate?
  - jedberg 6y ago
    It's impossible to test at these numbers today, but there is no technical reason that it can't be achieved in the future. And the quality issues can be solved as well, it just makes point one even worse -- it'll be that much harder to maintain the testing rate and the quality. But they are achievable goals.
  - NotSammyHagar 6y ago
    It's only impossible in the us because we have a failure at the federal level. South Korea, Taiwan, Israel have better testing than the US. Even China can test to it's hearts content. Not us, because we aren't even trying collectively. In Washington State there was an article in the Seattle Times about the national guard having 30 people manually putting test kits together. Why aren't they making them in a factory? Because we aren't organized enough, we don't have supplies, etc.
    - whalesalad 6y ago
      Exactly. So it’s an unattainable pipe-dream metric. This is more reason to stop spouting these numbers to people as the “official target for reopening”
    - makomk 6y ago
      South Korea has been testing less people than the US no matter how you slice it - per-capita or total, all-time or current testing rate - either way the US is doing more Covid-19 tests. (And as far as I can tell, Taiwan has tested far less people than South Korea in turn.) The US media has just managed to convince people that the opposite is true. It's not even close either - 14 per thousand in South Korea versus 30 per thousand in the US apparently[1], and current testing rate has even more of a gap. If there's some criteria for the testing rate that the US or any part of it isn't meeting, it's a safe bet that South Korea or most other countries aren't either - even all other countries for some of the more extreme ones being pushed by the media. A number of people on here have made this claim, and every time I try and point out that it's the complete and exact opposite of the truth it gets downvoted. It seems to be something everyone on HN firmly believes. Maybe I should give up? Trying to get coronavirus testing-related comparisons to bear any resemblance to actual numbers feels more and more like eternally tilting at windmills. (Admittedly, the media has done a good job on this one. There was even a really bizarre, cynical part in the last Trump press conference where he claimed that all US states are now testing more than South Korea and a reporter accused him of making "this a global competition", as though it was him and not the press that had been pushing this comparison - and all the media discussion became about his row with that journalist, ensuring that no-one heard about the underlying facts and updated their false belief that the US was behind South Korea in testing due to the federal government fucking up. Masterfully done. Practically Trumpian.) Now, Israel is genuinely doing more testing than the US, but you'd kind of hope for that from a much smaller country with a big globally-relevant pharmaceutical industry. [1] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
adsenseclient 6y ago
The goal is probably to undermine the economy as much as possible until the elections and to further certain socialist agendas such as UBI.

Loughla 6y ago

>By now I would have thought that all hell would break loose in Florida but it doesn’t seem to be happening. How long ago did Florida open everything back up? If I remember correctly it was just May 4th? That's only 8 days. This thing lags by two weeks. Put a note on your calendar to check again in 7 days.

prostoalex 6y ago
The reference is to all the spring break parties taking place two months ago https://www.local10.com/news/local/2020/03/14/south-florida-beaches-packed-despite-coronavirus-fears-as-spring-break-arrives/ https://www.local10.com/news/local/2020/03/14/south-florida-... Arguably, most of the party-goers were out-of-state, but it also would've been relatively easy for authorities to link a spike in deaths to those events. So far we have not seen the spike take place.
- fullstop 6y ago
  > Arguably, most of the party-goers were out-of-state, but it also would've been relatively easy for authorities to link a spike in deaths to those events. So far we have not seen the spike take place. How would we know? They are spread across the nation.
- slg 6y ago
  People on spring break are mostly young and the people they interact with while on spring break are mostly young. You would probably need to look at contacts two or three degrees away from them to notice the spike. Has there been an in depth analysis of the extended network of those people?
  - prostoalex 6y ago
    But even that has a policy implication that stay-at-home order can exempt people of certain age.
    - slg 6y ago
      IANAL, but I imagine a stay-at-home order that is based on age would result in constitutional challenges.
      - tick_tock_tick 6y ago
        It's unlikely the current orders would survive any court scrutiny.
        ceejayoz 6y ago
        Where are the emergency injunctions, then?
        harambaebae69 6y ago
        Alameda backed off elon musk pretty fast, probably because they had little legal footing https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/05/13/elon-musk-wins-battle-with-alameda-county-tesla-factory-allowed-to-reopen/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/05/13/elon-m...
    - greglindahl 6y ago
      If a young person goes to a nursing home and infects everyone, is it not connected to spring break unless the old people went to spring break? Keep in mind that the young person might be a medical worker, or in the family of a medical worker.
- ceejayoz 6y ago
  On 3/14 we had about 3k COVID-19 cases in the US. By the end of April, we had about 200k. Our contact tracing efforts at the time (and now) likely aren't sufficient to tie specific cases back to Florida's spring break, but it's unlikely to have helped.
  - pashamur 6y ago
    We had 3k reported cases, not 3k cases. That's a large difference. I wouldn't be surprised if the actual number of cases from 3/14 was hundreds of thousands. There were 58 deaths reported by 3/14. If you assume that mortality is 1% (probably on the high side, but good enough for estimates), that translates to ~6k cases. However, since we know that deaths lag cases by 1-3 weeks (let's assume 2 weeks for the analysis), we should be looking at deaths two weeks from 3/14, which would be 3/28. By 3/28, there were ~3k deaths from COVID-19, meaning that the true estimate of the number of cases from 3/14 is likely around 270,000 cases (estimate range is 130K - 800K). This also means that there were about 8.5 million cases in the US on May 1st (I happen to think mortality is closer to 0.5%, so that would be ~17 million cases instead), and that we've most likely crossed the 10 (or 20) million case mark by now.
- mistersquid 6y ago
  > it also would've been relatively easy for authorities to link a spike in deaths to those events. So far we have not seen the spike take place What makes you say it "would've been relatively easy" given contact tracing is not widespread in the US and certainly wasn't during the weeks of US Spring Break (ca. mid-Mar)? In any case, you are mistaken that "we have not seen the spike take place". [0] See, especially, the map "generated by Tectonix GEO and X-Mode Social" about 1/3 of the way down the page. [0] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/florida-spring-break-coronavirus.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/florida-spring-break-c...
  - prostoalex 6y ago
    > What makes you say it "would've been relatively easy" given contact tracing is not widespread in the US Plane tickets were bought, credit card spending took place, cell phone towers were pinged, hotel reservations had names linked to them, relatives, friends or colleagues aware of the whereabouts and can be interviewed post-mortem? For what it's worth, they're able to pinpoint specific parties or night club performances https://www.pasadenastarnews.com/2020/05/09/pasadena-identifies-at-least-5-coronavirus-cases-from-single-birthday-party/ https://www.pasadenastarnews.com/2020/05/09/pasadena-identif... https://ktla.com/news/local-news/former-rancho-palos-verdes-mayors-birthday-bash-at-trump-golf-club-leaves-partygoers-with-coronavirus/ https://ktla.com/news/local-news/former-rancho-palos-verdes-...
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
- eloff 6y ago
  We had a big spike in Quebec after spring break as people returned from Florida and France. The province is still the worst in Canada. BC took note and advised people not to travel for spring break (our break here is later). BC is doing very well by comparison.
  - makomk 6y ago
    I'd be a lot more worried about the people returning from France than Florida, they've had a pretty major outbreak.
timdorr 6y ago
GA "opened up" salons on 4/24 and restaurants on 4/27. I say that with quotes since many places remain closed for dine-in service. Nonetheless, it's been 2 weeks and we've only seen a slight decrease in case rates: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/georgia-coronavirus-cases.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/georgia-coronavi... Meanwhile, our testing rates have shot up to the ~7500/day range and our positive test rate has gone from ~25% down to 13.2% today: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wrGsD3T_JIvKwsudQwVHnAav_zEKo77a4g263gBNIoM/edit#gid=0 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wrGsD3T_JIvKwsudQwVH...
- cozzyd 6y ago
  At least for Illinois, models predicted that a May 1 reopening would lead to a very large second peak in June with high probability. See e.g. https://www.chicagobusiness.com/greg-hinz-politics/look-inside-one-models-city-hall-uses-track-how-fast-covid-19-spreads https://www.chicagobusiness.com/greg-hinz-politics/look-insi.... It's more than 2-week lag time due to the time required for R_0 to increase (due to people's habits), a number of generations required to noticed, and the general lag time of the issues.
- blamestross 6y ago
  I think that is intentionally being manipulated. They are pushing for asymptomatic people to be tested in droves. The % is accurate but the biases in sampling don't make it an apples-to-apples comparison anymore.
- leesec 6y ago
  This graph shows that things will be slow even when 'reopened' due to human behavior, which means you may not see Covid spikes for a while yet. https://compote.slate.com/images/6e5b79c5-c6db-47ab-95cd-7c9e438ac18c.png?width=780&height=520&rect=1319x879&offset=36x0 https://compote.slate.com/images/6e5b79c5-c6db-47ab-95cd-7c9...
  - __blockcipher__ 6y ago
    This seems like an argument for letting states “reopen” then...
xienze 6y ago
> How long ago did Florida open everything back up? If I remember correctly it was just May 4th? Parent is referring to weeks and weeks of predictions that Florida would be utterly decimated because of large Spring Break parties, taking a long time to shut down in the first place, beaches not closing down for a long time, etc. Florida, like apparently everywhere else in the US, has been perpetually “two weeks away” for the past six weeks from becoming New York City.
- take_a_breath 6y ago
  ==Florida, like apparently everywhere else in the US, has been perpetually “two weeks away” for the past six weeks from becoming New York City.== Almost the exact time most states started stay-at-home orders.
rburhum 6y ago
8 days? Hello from Peru! Where I have been in lockdown for 58 days straight and counting...
- kevinwang 6y ago
  The person you replied to is talking about NOT being on lockdown for the past 8 days.
- xienze 6y ago
  The eight days is in reference to Florida easing some lockdown restrictions. Most of the US has been under some sort of lockdown since mid to late March.
  - rburhum 6y ago
    With the military outside making sure you stay in or else you get arrested? Not sure my concept of lockdown is the same as yours.
    - Loughla 6y ago
      100% not that. It's more of a suggestion to stay at home. Restaurants and bars are closed to dine-in. Movie theaters and other fun things are closed. We 100% do not have military threatening arrest for going out. At this point, many (rural) police districts and politicians are even saying they won't enforce the stay-home orders anymore. So. Yeah. Not quite the same.
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
- jeffbarr 6y ago
  How are things in Peru, COVID-19 wise?? That's my wife's home country and she's not heard a lot about how well (or not) things are going.
  - rburhum 6y ago
lbeltrame 6y ago
> That's only 8 days. This thing lags by two weeks. Two weeks is the period within > 99% cases exhibit symptoms. The median incubation is between 4 and 6 days.
- NotSammyHagar 6y ago
  But the spreading continues, and I can see it taking multiple generations to make a clear trend. It's not like in 2 weeks there are 10x more people, the R0 is not that high. You have to have enough to be noticeable compared to the previous visible amount.

eganist 6y ago

The goal is to stabilize the infection rate and boost healthcare capacity so that some semblance of normality can be resumed without overwhelming the healthcare system. > a lockdown for such a long time is crazy. And people will rebel, and the infection rate will spike yet again, and people will die, and the lockdowns will be imposed with force. Better to listen and understand than to disobey and risk worse. What's the expression? Regulations are written with blood?

floren 6y ago
> the lockdowns will be imposed with force. "Comply or be killed" will be an interesting order, I look forward to seeing that one go out.
- ceejayoz 6y ago
  As much as cops may like to escalate right to the shooting at times, there are a lot of possible levels of force before being shot. Civil tickets. Revocation of business licenses. Fines. Arrests. Tear gas.
  - int_19h 6y ago
    In this particular case, the prevailing political affiliation among cops is more likely to push them in the other direction, e.g.: https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/port-of-seattle-places-cop-on-leave-over-viral-video-discouraging-enforcement-of-states-anti-coronavirus-measures/ https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/port-of-seattle-pl...
- bitwize 6y ago
  And to minimize the exposure risk to our boys in blue, we'll put ED-209s on every street corner.
  - mixmastamyk 6y ago
    I’d buy THAT for a dollar!

halfmatthalfcat 6y ago

How are you so sure people will stop complying? Is the risk of opening everything up just to shut it down again really worth it? I think people are smarter and more accepting of the status quo than those who are making the most noise. As for those who are overburdened by the lockdown (i.e. lost jobs), its on the governments to provide the safety net until we have everything under control.

drtillberg 6y ago
>its on the governments to provide the safety net until we have everything under control. Let's be clear-- there is no true safety net for middle-income professionals. We can draw down savings and cross our fingers that this resume gap doesn't kill a professional career. And that's just the financial and career consequences. There definitely are other consequences of unemployment too. I feel fortunate not to live in L.A. county but the public health response my state is not a lot less draconian. I just am astounded. I would love to wrap everyone and everything in bubble wrap as much as the next person to protect everyone from a very dangerous world but this is too much.
- gbear605 6y ago
  Resume wise, you’re in the same boat as everyone else
  - drtillberg 6y ago
    Everyone's situation is different. Unemployment isn't 100% and the class of 2021 won't have this gap. Think employers are rational enough to iron that out? Nah, you have more faith than me.
  - fennecfoxen 6y ago
    No, I live in a different city and I am fortunate to still have a job. A different boat exists, and I am in it.
- ralph84 6y ago
  Careers never fully recover from extended unemployment. There is plenty of research on this from previous downturns.

prostoalex 6y ago

Florida, or Japan (with March photos of crowds enjoying cherry blossoms), or Sweden.

skywhopper 6y ago

They have established objective metrics to use in determining when to loosen restrictions, and there are also procedures in place for partial reopening of restaurants, recreation areas, etc. Your questions are answered in the article.

georgeburdell 6y ago
As somebody who has worked in a "data driven" environment, I look forward to health departments re-discovering Goodhart's Law [1] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law
- mbreese 6y ago
  In this case though, I think it’s okay to have the measure be the target. If people can self-regulate their behavior to fit a certain rate of infection, what’s wrong with that? (Not to mention the infection rate is a really lagging indicator)
  - panzagl 6y ago
    Well, the metric is really no reported deaths...
Ididntdothis 6y ago
The bar is extremely high. No deaths for 14 days? That seems almost impossible.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
cactus2093 6y ago
I feel like this just needs a better branding. For one thing, across California the stay at home orders have barely been enforced anyway. People are hanging out in parks, even meeting up with friends in parks all the time. So it's been an open secret this whole time that it's more voluntary than an "order". Now with curbside pickup, and restaurants partially opening, it seems like taking another step towards more targeted interventions and away from the broadest stay at home orders. This all seems in line with what anyone would have expected. Anyone who thought that on June 1 when the stay-at-home orders officially end everyone would just jump back into normal life and it would magically be safe clearly hasn't been paying attention. The difference between California and states like Georgia that have "opened up" actually seems to be quite minimal. Some people are taking more risks (which is not really being stopped in either place), the majority are still being very cautious. That's bad news for people hoping that the small businesses that have been financially hurt would spring back immediately, but hopefully good news for where we are in containment of the virus. And, knock on wood, at least for now it seems to be enough to keep the disease spread from ramping back up. I still think it would have been nice to just go all the way with the lockdown from day 1 back in March, actually enforce the rules and keep more people inside, and squashed the curve faster so that by now we'd be a lot more open than we are. But instead we chose the route of making most people only moderately miserable instead for a long time, instead of even slightly more miserable but for a shorter time.

somethoughts 6y ago

It's real world political game theory. The unspoken side benefit (whether intentional or not) here is to limit the government liability in case of health related lawsuits in the future related to opening too soon, which is great as a state taxpayer. Hesitate to bring it up since its so contentious but this is actually probably a huge side benefit of the Alameda County go slow approach. For the interim county health advisor, there's no benefit for going out on a limb and providing the rubber stamp to allow a plant to open as they'd ultimately individually be scape-goated if things went wrong. All politicians above would be free to claim - "I wasn't consulted on such details". Now since the plant is open without full approvals, all legal liability is on the private company for any health issues that arise. In fact the state hasn't really officially said the plant could open and so is free from liability and now that the president has chimed in, the interim county health advisor is completely free from liability. It's a great get out of jail free card, release from liability stance as the individual or company is against government orders.

pdonis 6y ago
> The unspoken side benefit (whether intentional or not) here is to limit the government liability If the government wants to limit its liability it should stop telling people what to do and let them decide for themselves. > For the interim county health advisor, there's no benefit for going out on a limb and providing the rubber stamp to allow a plant to open as they'd ultimately individually be scape-goated if things went wrong. So the only alternative is for the government, after imposing the costs of the lockdown on everybody, to simply refuse to accept the costs of reopening?
- somethoughts 6y ago
  There's still some liability on the state in leaving it interpretable. They will also be called out for lack of leadership if they don't provide guidance. The best political safe alternative for all players involved is to do what's happening now; the government provides a hard line on guidance and then is lax on enforcement and lets the plant re-open and begin production. If it goes well (and hopefully it goes well), it goes well. If it doesn't go well, then people who were advocating taking the risk and with the most to gain if had it gone well, are ultimately responsible for the downside liability. Which seems fair?

sam_goody 6y ago

I have found getting accurate data to be very difficult. I saw one chart which allegedly mapped the effect of the lockdown over four weeks with various various indexes: COVID - significant drop. Death from other medical items - even more significant drop. Death from traffic accidents - even moreso. Number of deaths from suicide - significant jump. From drug overdose - even more significant jump. Number of mental breakdowns and newly diagnosed illnesses - jump. Number of deaths from people not getting care they needed - jump. I cannot find that chart anymore, and when I tried to verify the items, I could not. Anyone who knows the chart I am referring to, or generally reliably sources for these things (and not just COVID deaths), please reply!

notyourday 6y ago
If we keep everyone locked up all the time all kinds of deaths will drop!
- sam_goody 6y ago
  But if the deaths from suicide, drug overdose, delayed medical care, ulcers and other stress related sicknesses, and abuse are enough, they will offset those numbers. If the drop into poverty as people lose jobs create slums, gangs, and muggings, there will be a lot more deaths, and those will also offset the numbers. So, even quality of life aside, I am not sure we come out ahead even on saving lives. I would like data though, since anyone can speculate. Can someone point to real data?
  - creaghpatr 6y ago
    >But if the deaths from suicide, drug overdose, delayed medical care, ulcers and other stress related sicknesses, and abuse are enough, they will offset those numbers Not if they get counted as a COVID death. You better believe that drug overdose death is getting a test if there's federal reimbursement in play.
  - jddj 6y ago
    It's a common speculation, but employment (and recreation, regular life, going outdoors) actually kills a lot of people. Every % rise of unemployment in Europe during the financial crisis resulted in a 3.5% drop in all cause mortality, and that includes a ~35% increase in suicides. We can probably extrapolate that for a scenario where business as usual also kills a good amount more people due to a pandemic. Clearly the US, being the US, could be different due to cultural differences in how the poor and underemployed are treated. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0091743514001224 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S009174351...

jvanderbot 6y ago

The connection between influx of new COVID cases, deaths, and safe-from-home is pretty clear from looking at the daily new cases, which flattened exactly two weeks after lockdown began. Look here at the general US statistics: https://covid19info.live/us/ https://covid19info.live/us/

virmundi 6y ago

It is. People are still getting sick. They are dying in greater numbers. They are getting Vitamin D which actually helps with fighting. But they are mildly discomforted.

11235813213455 6y ago

I don't know the goal, but I see plenty indirect benefits in lockdowns around the world, and hope they'll happen more often, like for a heatwave or a pollution peak, to give nature a needed break

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

NotSammyHagar 6y ago

The goal is drastically cut down both deaths and hospitalizations. There are various estimates for how to get to herd immunity, 50% of population has to have it, up to 75%. The current estimates for how many people die ranges from 0.3% (3/1000) to 0.5%. A lot more end up in the hospital, perhaps 5-10x more than those who die, I don't have as good a number for this. [1] has good info. 330 million * 50% * 0.005 = 825k die. 5-10x in the hospital is 4 million to 8 million. Those are big impacts. Some people want to argue the next thing "those are mostly old people or sick people", so too bad for them? 1. IHME, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

throwaway122378 6y ago
IHME’s projections have been extremely inaccurate so you can’t take that one and throw it out
- throwaway122378 6y ago
  Downvoted for the truth? What is this Reddit? Go look at all of IHME’s predictions and the actual numbers. Way off.
DuskStar 6y ago
> Some people want to argue the next thing "those are mostly old people or sick people", so too bad for them? The argument re: old/sick people is a combination of "these people have fewer years left to live anyways, making deaths less impactful" and "this is a smaller subset of the population that can be isolated while the rest are set free".
alexbanks 6y ago
It's probably not the best use of time to cite data referencing 300 million people spread across almost 4 million square miles. Each state, and really each county, is its own unique circumstance/set of data.
subsubzero 6y ago
Since there are no wide scale antibody testing in most of the US due to lack of coordination/faulty health system perhaps we can look at closed systems to ascertain the true death rate. Looking at Lompac prison it appears that 70% of the inmates have tested positive for covid-19 [1]. If the remainder of the inmates are tested, a somewhat accurate death rate can be found. I feel like the only people that should quarantine should be pre-existing medical conditions and the very old, but want to see hard data to back this up, interesting info from the linked article, "The vast majority of positive individuals report minor or no symptoms" I don't know how soon from positive test to infection these cases are as well as the age distribution at the prison but this should be looked at regardless. [1] https://beta.trimread.com/articles/14804 https://beta.trimread.com/articles/14804

jedberg 6y ago

> What’s the goal? A 14 day decline in new cases while maintaining a testing rate 200/100,000.

whalesalad 6y ago
Hasn't it already been demonstrated that it is impossible to test at these numbers? Furthermore, due to relaxed mnufacturing requirements, something like 50% of the tests are completely unreliable/inaccurate?
- jedberg 6y ago
  It's impossible to test at these numbers today, but there is no technical reason that it can't be achieved in the future. And the quality issues can be solved as well, it just makes point one even worse -- it'll be that much harder to maintain the testing rate and the quality. But they are achievable goals.
- NotSammyHagar 6y ago
  It's only impossible in the us because we have a failure at the federal level. South Korea, Taiwan, Israel have better testing than the US. Even China can test to it's hearts content. Not us, because we aren't even trying collectively. In Washington State there was an article in the Seattle Times about the national guard having 30 people manually putting test kits together. Why aren't they making them in a factory? Because we aren't organized enough, we don't have supplies, etc.
  - whalesalad 6y ago
    Exactly. So it’s an unattainable pipe-dream metric. This is more reason to stop spouting these numbers to people as the “official target for reopening”
  - makomk 6y ago
    South Korea has been testing less people than the US no matter how you slice it - per-capita or total, all-time or current testing rate - either way the US is doing more Covid-19 tests. (And as far as I can tell, Taiwan has tested far less people than South Korea in turn.) The US media has just managed to convince people that the opposite is true. It's not even close either - 14 per thousand in South Korea versus 30 per thousand in the US apparently[1], and current testing rate has even more of a gap. If there's some criteria for the testing rate that the US or any part of it isn't meeting, it's a safe bet that South Korea or most other countries aren't either - even all other countries for some of the more extreme ones being pushed by the media. A number of people on here have made this claim, and every time I try and point out that it's the complete and exact opposite of the truth it gets downvoted. It seems to be something everyone on HN firmly believes. Maybe I should give up? Trying to get coronavirus testing-related comparisons to bear any resemblance to actual numbers feels more and more like eternally tilting at windmills. (Admittedly, the media has done a good job on this one. There was even a really bizarre, cynical part in the last Trump press conference where he claimed that all US states are now testing more than South Korea and a reporter accused him of making "this a global competition", as though it was him and not the press that had been pushing this comparison - and all the media discussion became about his row with that journalist, ensuring that no-one heard about the underlying facts and updated their false belief that the US was behind South Korea in testing due to the federal government fucking up. Masterfully done. Practically Trumpian.) Now, Israel is genuinely doing more testing than the US, but you'd kind of hope for that from a much smaller country with a big globally-relevant pharmaceutical industry. [1] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

adsenseclient 6y ago

The goal is probably to undermine the economy as much as possible until the elections and to further certain socialist agendas such as UBI.