10 ms·

96% are without symptoms yet. There was a nursing home in Massachusetts which had 51 out of 98 residents testing positive but asymptomatic in early April. Whil

96% are without symptoms yet. There was a nursing home in Massachusetts which had 51 out of 98 residents testing positive but asymptomatic in early April. While this sounded encouraging in the sense no one was critically ill because of coronavirus, a few weeks later 19 had died and about 30 more had tested positive. Let’s wait a month until there is a clearer picture about the impact of the virus on a particular population of people. https://www.boston.com/news/local-news/2020/04/04/coronavirus-cases-wilmington-nursing-home/ https://www.boston.com/news/local-news/2020/04/04/coronaviru... https://www.wcvb.com/article/85-of-patients-at-wilmington-massachusetts-nursing-home-test-positive-for-coronavirus/32087000 https://www.wcvb.com/article/85-of-patients-at-wilmington-ma...

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
kfrzcode 7y ago
Is it indicated how long ago these inmates were tested? Seems like that's a key component in this mystery and I can't find it.
- sharken 7y ago
  In Marion Correctional Institution, Ohio it could look like the tests were conducted in mid-april according to https://drc.ohio.gov/Portals/0/DRC%20COVID-19%20Information%2004-19-2020%20%201305.pdf https://drc.ohio.gov/Portals/0/DRC%20COVID-19%20Information%.... But as of 25-04-2020 at least 4 inmates have died to Corona virus according to https://eu.marionstar.com/story/news/local/2020/04/24/coronavirus-ohio-17-prisoners-now-dead-4-marion-correctional/3019337001/ https://eu.marionstar.com/story/news/local/2020/04/24/corona.... There are 2,564 inmates (https://drc.ohio.gov/mci https://drc.ohio.gov/mci).
  - XorNot 7y ago
    As a note on sample size, given those numbers the general fatality rate would imply eventually 25 deaths.
    - sharken 7y ago
      It is currently at 40 deaths according to https://drc.ohio.gov/Portals/0/DRC%20COVID-19%20Information%2005-06-2020%201337.pdf https://drc.ohio.gov/Portals/0/DRC%20COVID-19%20Information%.... No specifics on age or comorbidities yet.
JPKab 7y ago
Did you see the NYC antibody sample that showed that approximately 21 percent of citizens had antibodies? It seems like a nursing home is a pretty bad representation of a population.
- ilamont 7y ago
  I agree, but so is a group of male inmates (many of them older) compared to the general population. Until more testing on this group is done in a few weeks and symptoms emerge, we won’t have a clear picture on how many are truly asymptomatic.
- prussian 7y ago
  Am I the only one who is still confused by what they're finding in these antibody tests? Are they looking for antibodies that attach to specific features unique to SARS-CoV-2? Because I'm pretty sure even HCoV-NL63 enter lung cells through ACE2 as well. How can they tell antibodies for these viruses apart? Also aren't antibodies effectively developed in a sort of random process?
  - SN76477 7y ago
    I am confused as can be about all of it now. First it was stay locked in, then heard immunity, now they say heard immunity may not happen.
    - 13415 7y ago
      If you're confused by this, you may need to check your news sources. Experts have been explaining all of this for months. First, people need to stay locked in and keep distance in order to slow down the spreading so health care systems don't get overwhelmed. Second, the disease itself can only be stopped once herd immunity is reached. Ideally, herd immunity is achieved by vaccination, once there is one. Until then, social distancing is needed to limit the number of deaths and keep the health system working. Third, it is not yet clear whether long-lasting immunity can be achieved at all. It's very likely, but there is not yet enough data. Immunity may last from 2 months to 2 years or longer. We don't know yet for sure.
RangerScience 7y ago
...Let's also ask if the tests have a high false positive rate?
- bumby 7y ago
  Dr. David Katz was just in Bill Maher’s show indicating the test has a high false negative rate
  - bilbo0s 7y ago
    It may have both for all we know. I really do think relatively little is known about this virus at the moment. We learn a lot everyday I'm sure, but it's still somewhat of a mystery. We don't like mysteries, which I'm pretty sure is what generates all the fear around the virus.
    - bumby 7y ago
      The evidence shown is a false negative rate of 30% based on a study of 1,000 patients with the virus. So there’s at least some preliminary evidence. https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/85717?xid=nl_mpt_SRPrimaryCare_2020-04-01&eun=g436715d0r&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PCUpdate_040120&utm_term=NL_Spec_Primary_Care_Update_Active https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/85717...
  - vinceguidry 7y ago
    That doesn't rule out a high false positive rate. The false positive rate can be even higher than the false negative rate.
    - bumby 7y ago
      Totally agree. The difference being a high false negative rate may be more dangerous because it may mean asymptomatic false negative carriers are still spreading the virus. The downside of a false positive is that people are self quarantining needlessly. For a patient, a high false negative rate is usually worse. For an insurer, a high false positive rate is usually worse. The perspective matters.
not_a_moth 7y ago
? You're comparing a prison to a nursing home Another data point, ~12k healthy foreign workers in Singapore have tested positive. The city-state has only 12 deaths total (all elderly, not the foreign workers). In Singapore the foreign workers may have already been asymptomatic for weeks. Based on NYC data, LA city data, Stanford's Santa Clara data, Singapore, Danish blood donor data, a picture is emerging that the virus is not particularly dangerous to healthy people.
- pavlov 7y ago
  Prisoners in America are not in great health. Many untreated conditions, often inadequate health care since birth.
  - arcticbull 7y ago
    I'm curious if these specific diseases actually make them more susceptible to COVID or not but this is fact. - Over half of state prisoners and up to 90% of jail detainees suffer from drug dependence. - Hepatitis C is nine to 10 times more prevalent in correctional facilities than in communities. - Chronic health conditions, such as asthma and hypertension, and mental health disorders also affect prisoner populations at rates that far exceed their prevalence in the general population. - About 40% of all inmates are estimated to have at least one chronic health condition. With a few exceptions, nearly all chronic health conditions are more prevalent among inmates than in the general population. [1] With that said, the average age is much younger than the general population [2]. Age is by far the biggest factor in outcomes, followed by co-morbidities. [1] https://issues.org/correctional-health-is-community-health/ https://issues.org/correctional-health-is-community-health/ [2] https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/statistics_inmate_age.jsp https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/statistics_inmate_age.j...
  - monadic2 7y ago
    In addition, concentrated and extended exposure to the virus, like what you see in prisons where it is impossible to maintain distance between yourself and other inmates during meals and in bed, is known to affect people of all ages. Look at the effects the virus has had on medical professionals who do not have access to PPE—eg Usama Riaz.
covidSurvivor19 7y ago
Want to make a bet they won't develop symptoms? Or at least please help me understand how can you compare these two populations with wildly different average ages, preexisting conditions, etc...
arcticbull 7y ago
The virus affects young and healthy folks without co-morbidities dramatically less than it does old folks at a nursing home. Based on New York City data, people without co-morbidities account for something like 6% of hospitalizations [1]. Old folks on a cruise ship full of old people, about 20% showed no symptoms. Is it a big stretch to think that scales to prisoners as shown? They're pretty young (only 2.8% of prisoners are over 65 [2]), and therefore pretty unlikely to show symptoms let alone require medical care. Age is unquestionably the biggest factor in outcomes for COVID [3]. "Asymptomatic" is kind of a sliding scale. Are you sick? No. Do you have a stuffy nose? Kinda. [1] https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/nearly-all-nyc-area-covid-19-hospitalizations-had-comorbidities-67476 https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/nearly-all-nyc-ar... [2] https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/statistics_inmate_age.jsp https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/statistics_inmate_age.j... [3] https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6915e3.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6915e3.htm
- pastablister 7y ago
  Perfect, sounds like a good experiment then, so let's wait and see.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
- Bnshsysjab 7y ago
  Wouldn’t prisons disproportionately have poorer health than average for several reasons?
  - briandear 7y ago
    Is there data on that? Or is it an assumption?
    - arcticbull 7y ago
      There's plenty of data indicating that's the case, for instance [1]. That said, the population is also much younger and age has a much bigger impact than comorbidities. [1] https://issues.org/correctional-health-is-community-health/ https://issues.org/correctional-health-is-community-health/
pastablister 7y ago
Is this not just another Diamond Princess Cruise?
emiliovesprini 7y ago
Also there have been reports of Ground Glass Opacities[1] in the lungs of people with infections previously thought of as asymptomatic. [1]: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground-glass_opacity https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground-glass_opacity
- arcticbull 7y ago
  Sure, but that doesn't mean they... won't go away. In fact, I'm pretty confident all signs point to the fact they will go away. In fact you get ground glass opacities with H1N1 inflenza [1]. I guess the question is "functional asymptomaticity" vs "actual asymptomaticity". Like, if it's not bad enough for people to even notice does it really matter? [1] https://pubs.rsna.org/doi/full/10.1148/radiol.10092240 https://pubs.rsna.org/doi/full/10.1148/radiol.10092240
  - wavegeek 7y ago
    > I'm pretty confident powerful argument there, not. With SARS1 there was continuing damage post 6 months.
    - arcticbull 7y ago
      SARS-COV-1 has a two orders of magnitude higher fatality rate, so one would imagine the damage would be substantially worse. Is it really a stretch to believe that level and quantity of damage correlate both to recovery time and to mortality rates? Further, were there asymptomatic SARS-COV-1 cases? SARS-COV-1 had an IFR (not CFR) of 14-15%. Broken out, it's less than 1% for people younger than 25, 6% for those aged 25 to 44, 15% for those aged 45 to 64, and more than 50% for people 65 or older, officials said. [1] On the other hand SARS-COV-2 has an IFR of somewhere in the lower quartile of the range 0.1% to 1%, trending to around 0.3%. Not to mention, I argued that lung function would recover, to which you said "strong argument, not [the much worse disease saw lung function recover in 6 months]" which implies you were actually supporting my argument not refuting it. The coronaviridae family is huge, and fatality varies from ~0% in the 15% of common colds they cause to 0.1-1% for COVID to 15% for SARS-COV-1 to 50% for MERS. I can't stress this enough. SARS-COV-1 and MERS are not SARS-COV-2, they are much worse diseases. [1] https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2003/05/estimates-sars-death-rates-revised-upward https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2003/05/estimate...

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

kfrzcode 7y ago

Is it indicated how long ago these inmates were tested? Seems like that's a key component in this mystery and I can't find it.

sharken 7y ago
In Marion Correctional Institution, Ohio it could look like the tests were conducted in mid-april according to https://drc.ohio.gov/Portals/0/DRC%20COVID-19%20Information%2004-19-2020%20%201305.pdf https://drc.ohio.gov/Portals/0/DRC%20COVID-19%20Information%.... But as of 25-04-2020 at least 4 inmates have died to Corona virus according to https://eu.marionstar.com/story/news/local/2020/04/24/coronavirus-ohio-17-prisoners-now-dead-4-marion-correctional/3019337001/ https://eu.marionstar.com/story/news/local/2020/04/24/corona.... There are 2,564 inmates (https://drc.ohio.gov/mci https://drc.ohio.gov/mci).
- XorNot 7y ago
  As a note on sample size, given those numbers the general fatality rate would imply eventually 25 deaths.
  - sharken 7y ago
    It is currently at 40 deaths according to https://drc.ohio.gov/Portals/0/DRC%20COVID-19%20Information%2005-06-2020%201337.pdf https://drc.ohio.gov/Portals/0/DRC%20COVID-19%20Information%.... No specifics on age or comorbidities yet.

JPKab 7y ago

Did you see the NYC antibody sample that showed that approximately 21 percent of citizens had antibodies? It seems like a nursing home is a pretty bad representation of a population.

ilamont 7y ago
I agree, but so is a group of male inmates (many of them older) compared to the general population. Until more testing on this group is done in a few weeks and symptoms emerge, we won’t have a clear picture on how many are truly asymptomatic.
prussian 7y ago
Am I the only one who is still confused by what they're finding in these antibody tests? Are they looking for antibodies that attach to specific features unique to SARS-CoV-2? Because I'm pretty sure even HCoV-NL63 enter lung cells through ACE2 as well. How can they tell antibodies for these viruses apart? Also aren't antibodies effectively developed in a sort of random process?
- SN76477 7y ago
  I am confused as can be about all of it now. First it was stay locked in, then heard immunity, now they say heard immunity may not happen.
  - 13415 7y ago
    If you're confused by this, you may need to check your news sources. Experts have been explaining all of this for months. First, people need to stay locked in and keep distance in order to slow down the spreading so health care systems don't get overwhelmed. Second, the disease itself can only be stopped once herd immunity is reached. Ideally, herd immunity is achieved by vaccination, once there is one. Until then, social distancing is needed to limit the number of deaths and keep the health system working. Third, it is not yet clear whether long-lasting immunity can be achieved at all. It's very likely, but there is not yet enough data. Immunity may last from 2 months to 2 years or longer. We don't know yet for sure.

RangerScience 7y ago

...Let's also ask if the tests have a high false positive rate?

bumby 7y ago
Dr. David Katz was just in Bill Maher’s show indicating the test has a high false negative rate
- bilbo0s 7y ago
  It may have both for all we know. I really do think relatively little is known about this virus at the moment. We learn a lot everyday I'm sure, but it's still somewhat of a mystery. We don't like mysteries, which I'm pretty sure is what generates all the fear around the virus.
  - bumby 7y ago
    The evidence shown is a false negative rate of 30% based on a study of 1,000 patients with the virus. So there’s at least some preliminary evidence. https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/85717?xid=nl_mpt_SRPrimaryCare_2020-04-01&eun=g436715d0r&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PCUpdate_040120&utm_term=NL_Spec_Primary_Care_Update_Active https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/85717...
- vinceguidry 7y ago
  That doesn't rule out a high false positive rate. The false positive rate can be even higher than the false negative rate.
  - bumby 7y ago
    Totally agree. The difference being a high false negative rate may be more dangerous because it may mean asymptomatic false negative carriers are still spreading the virus. The downside of a false positive is that people are self quarantining needlessly. For a patient, a high false negative rate is usually worse. For an insurer, a high false positive rate is usually worse. The perspective matters.

not_a_moth 7y ago

? You're comparing a prison to a nursing home Another data point, ~12k healthy foreign workers in Singapore have tested positive. The city-state has only 12 deaths total (all elderly, not the foreign workers). In Singapore the foreign workers may have already been asymptomatic for weeks. Based on NYC data, LA city data, Stanford's Santa Clara data, Singapore, Danish blood donor data, a picture is emerging that the virus is not particularly dangerous to healthy people.

pavlov 7y ago
Prisoners in America are not in great health. Many untreated conditions, often inadequate health care since birth.
- arcticbull 7y ago
  I'm curious if these specific diseases actually make them more susceptible to COVID or not but this is fact. - Over half of state prisoners and up to 90% of jail detainees suffer from drug dependence. - Hepatitis C is nine to 10 times more prevalent in correctional facilities than in communities. - Chronic health conditions, such as asthma and hypertension, and mental health disorders also affect prisoner populations at rates that far exceed their prevalence in the general population. - About 40% of all inmates are estimated to have at least one chronic health condition. With a few exceptions, nearly all chronic health conditions are more prevalent among inmates than in the general population. [1] With that said, the average age is much younger than the general population [2]. Age is by far the biggest factor in outcomes, followed by co-morbidities. [1] https://issues.org/correctional-health-is-community-health/ https://issues.org/correctional-health-is-community-health/ [2] https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/statistics_inmate_age.jsp https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/statistics_inmate_age.j...
- monadic2 7y ago
  In addition, concentrated and extended exposure to the virus, like what you see in prisons where it is impossible to maintain distance between yourself and other inmates during meals and in bed, is known to affect people of all ages. Look at the effects the virus has had on medical professionals who do not have access to PPE—eg Usama Riaz.

covidSurvivor19 7y ago

Want to make a bet they won't develop symptoms? Or at least please help me understand how can you compare these two populations with wildly different average ages, preexisting conditions, etc...

arcticbull 7y ago

The virus affects young and healthy folks without co-morbidities dramatically less than it does old folks at a nursing home. Based on New York City data, people without co-morbidities account for something like 6% of hospitalizations [1]. Old folks on a cruise ship full of old people, about 20% showed no symptoms. Is it a big stretch to think that scales to prisoners as shown? They're pretty young (only 2.8% of prisoners are over 65 [2]), and therefore pretty unlikely to show symptoms let alone require medical care. Age is unquestionably the biggest factor in outcomes for COVID [3]. "Asymptomatic" is kind of a sliding scale. Are you sick? No. Do you have a stuffy nose? Kinda. [1] https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/nearly-all-nyc-area-covid-19-hospitalizations-had-comorbidities-67476 https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/nearly-all-nyc-ar... [2] https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/statistics_inmate_age.jsp https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/statistics_inmate_age.j... [3] https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6915e3.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6915e3.htm

pastablister 7y ago
Perfect, sounds like a good experiment then, so let's wait and see.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
Bnshsysjab 7y ago
Wouldn’t prisons disproportionately have poorer health than average for several reasons?
- briandear 7y ago
  Is there data on that? Or is it an assumption?
  - arcticbull 7y ago
    There's plenty of data indicating that's the case, for instance [1]. That said, the population is also much younger and age has a much bigger impact than comorbidities. [1] https://issues.org/correctional-health-is-community-health/ https://issues.org/correctional-health-is-community-health/

pastablister 7y ago

Is this not just another Diamond Princess Cruise?

emiliovesprini 7y ago

Also there have been reports of Ground Glass Opacities[1] in the lungs of people with infections previously thought of as asymptomatic. [1]: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground-glass_opacity https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground-glass_opacity

arcticbull 7y ago
Sure, but that doesn't mean they... won't go away. In fact, I'm pretty confident all signs point to the fact they will go away. In fact you get ground glass opacities with H1N1 inflenza [1]. I guess the question is "functional asymptomaticity" vs "actual asymptomaticity". Like, if it's not bad enough for people to even notice does it really matter? [1] https://pubs.rsna.org/doi/full/10.1148/radiol.10092240 https://pubs.rsna.org/doi/full/10.1148/radiol.10092240
- wavegeek 7y ago
  > I'm pretty confident powerful argument there, not. With SARS1 there was continuing damage post 6 months.
  - arcticbull 7y ago
    SARS-COV-1 has a two orders of magnitude higher fatality rate, so one would imagine the damage would be substantially worse. Is it really a stretch to believe that level and quantity of damage correlate both to recovery time and to mortality rates? Further, were there asymptomatic SARS-COV-1 cases? SARS-COV-1 had an IFR (not CFR) of 14-15%. Broken out, it's less than 1% for people younger than 25, 6% for those aged 25 to 44, 15% for those aged 45 to 64, and more than 50% for people 65 or older, officials said. [1] On the other hand SARS-COV-2 has an IFR of somewhere in the lower quartile of the range 0.1% to 1%, trending to around 0.3%. Not to mention, I argued that lung function would recover, to which you said "strong argument, not [the much worse disease saw lung function recover in 6 months]" which implies you were actually supporting my argument not refuting it. The coronaviridae family is huge, and fatality varies from ~0% in the 15% of common colds they cause to 0.1-1% for COVID to 15% for SARS-COV-1 to 50% for MERS. I can't stress this enough. SARS-COV-1 and MERS are not SARS-COV-2, they are much worse diseases. [1] https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2003/05/estimates-sars-death-rates-revised-upward https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2003/05/estimate...