16 ms·

Covid-19 update and guidance to limit spread

510 points by tectonic 7y ago

melling 7y ago
Does anyone of the time series by country? The United States just reaches 800 tested infections. I think we had 88 on March 1. Would like to see how fast the recent numbers are growing.
- fullshark 7y ago
  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ US: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
- PureParadigm 7y ago
  Wikipedia tends to have decent graphs in the article for the outbreaks. Here's the one for the United States: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_the_United_States#Cases https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_t...
- ComputerGuru 7y ago
  Illinois cases had been growing slowly but they just jumped from 7 yesterday to 11 today.
  - ComputerGuru 7y ago
    19 now.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- humaniania 7y ago
  The World Health Organization publishes daily situation reports with break downs by country https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2...
- joshuahedlund 7y ago
  worldometers has more complete info but here is an interesting chart I've also been tracking that compares the exponential growth of several countries after they reached 100 cases https://studylib.net/coronavirus-growth https://studylib.net/coronavirus-growth Despite the differences in start times, the similarities in the curves are remarkable - although so are the deviations. I've basically been watching the US follow the same path as a few European countries, just on a lag of a few days.
  - abeppu 7y ago
    I'm curious -- are there things that Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong doing that we should all copy? Their trajectory looks pretty different from that of other countries.
  - petschge 7y ago
    Could you do the same with time after 500 (or 1000) cases. There is a whole bunch of parallel curves that seem to be displaced mostly because of differences in early testing but otherwise show the same growth rate.
  - lubujackson 7y ago
    Awesome idea. But I'm curious about your data source since I don't see the biggest spike when China revised their numbers. How did you smooth that out?
- cVwEq 7y ago
  Downloadable database of historical data by country [1], used for the Johns Hopkins CSSE COVID-19 dashboard [2]. [1] https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19 https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19 [2] https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594...
ColinWright 7y ago
Discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22535650 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22535650 Editing in response to the comments below ... This submission is of a different resource. This resource goes into more detail about lots of things. However, the "Flatten the Curve" idea had already been submitted in the referenced submission above. It was less complete, but had already sparked a large discussion. So should the resulting discussion be started all over again here on this, more complete submission? Or should the discussion remain in one primary location to avoid repetition and to gather the insights, thoughts, rebuttals etc in one place? Who knows ... I provided the cross-reference to allow the decision to be made. This submission has now hit the top spot on the front page and is spawning a conversation. So the decision is made, and the cross-reference has been rendered moot. Further edit ... I think it unreasonable that the people who responded to me should be downvoted, and I've upvoted them in an attempt to balance that. I think the comments are fair and reasonable, and belong in the discussion.
- throwanem 7y ago
  That discussion revolves around a wholly different resource.
  - ColinWright 7y ago
    Except that the discussion is common ... it's all about the concept of flattening the curve to reduce the peak and thereby not exceed the capacity of the health service. It's the same data, it's the same idea, it's the same argument, but from a different source. It's also all now all over the place ... I could find 8 or 10 different sites to submit, all with the same message. Is it useful then to have 8 or 10 discussion on HN all hacking over the same ground, all making the same points, all having the same "insights" and disagreements? I think not, and that's why I linked this submission to the existing discussion.
    - frereubu 7y ago
      I think you needed to give more context, which you might be able to do if you can still edit it. “Discussion” could mean anything.
xyzzyz 7y ago
Why put the goal at flattening, instead of just killing it completely? If you observably flatten the curve, you're already almost all of the way to get R_0 to below 1. Why not just go all the way? The Chinese seem to have managed it, why aim at anything less?
- chickenpotpie 7y ago
  We would love to kill it, but that's not really an option right now. To kill it we either need a vaccine or to quarantine every single person 24/7 because we don't know who has it. We don't have a vaccine yet and the other option would completely kill all economic activity. More people would die from lack of access to food, water, and emergency services.
  - haunter 7y ago
    >More people would die from lack of access to food, water, and emergency services. Any proof for that, I guess based on China?
- lazide 7y ago
  Because, between the lines, the level of top down, military like action and trampling of civil rights that is possible in China is likely not possible here without sparking a civil war - making the whole situation worse.
  - Fnoord 7y ago
    We'll have to see how its gonna play out in Italy after their lockdown.
  - inscionent 7y ago
    Civil War? Do you hear yourself. Take a breath.
    - wpietri 7y ago
      I think you underestimate the number of people with weapons, a serious anti-government attitude, and some strong beliefs that most people would consider at best wacky. I don't think a civil war is likely. But when we look at past incidents like Waco, Ruby Ridge, Oklahoma City, Jade Helm [1], and Malheur, it's not absurd. A few years back I stopped at a blueberry farm just off the highway in Oregon. In under 10 minutes of conversation, a very nice grandmother was explaining how the Obama administration had made a deal so the UN could come in black helicopters and take all their guns, but that they were ready for it. I got my blueberries and got out. But you can bet that there are a whole lot of people with guns and Millenarianist notions that are sure that this time it's really the end times, and that would not take kindly to government-enforced quarantines. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jade_Helm_15_conspiracy_theories https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jade_Helm_15_conspiracy_theori...
chickenpotpie 7y ago
It's so nice to see someone who has the qualifications explain so clearly why the efforts we're making are important. I live in Seattle and I have a hard time explaining to my mother why me working from home and avoiding public events is important right now. She just keeps stating that everyone is going to get it eventually and it won't matter.
- drcode 7y ago
  Also nice that the appropriate domain wasn't squatted by some jerk.
  - seane 7y ago
    Haha. I guess I’m that jerk. Basically, I saw that this domain was available and saw the increasing talk of “flattening the curve” on Twitter. I grabbed it and wanted to do something helpful, like post just the pic of the tall and flat graph that was making the rounds, because I loved how simple the visual was, and how powerful the point it made. I thought at least people could share the concept easily. But then someone shared Julie’s post, which was living on a gdoc at the time, and even that was struggling with the amount of readers... and was very much not an easily shareable link. So I reached out and asked if she’d like to have it live at flattenthecurve.com, and promised to give her a login to update and add more info etc. She said yes and I got the site live in half a day mostly spent reformatting the gdoc into WP. I’m thrilled that the domain is really living up to its best use!
    - CydeWeys 7y ago
      Nice work! Glad to see strangers come together and work on this in such a short timeline.
    - stareatgoats 7y ago
      Thanks!
    - drcode 7y ago
      You are a good human!
isoskeles 7y ago
> 2.8.2.12 DO NOT BE RACIST I long for the day that concern trolling and virtue signalling are not included in otherwise helpful resources like this one.
- ncallaway 7y ago
  I'll do my very best to ensure that you never see that day!
- Der_Einzige 7y ago
  This is not concern trolling or virtue signalling. What you're doing is closer to both of those words than what the author did. Especially if you read the two sentences that the author writes under that section. It's pretty damn tame. (and that's why I'm pretty sure you didn't based on your response)
  - isoskeles 7y ago
    I did read them and agree that they're tame. I just disagree with the constant narrative that the US is some disgustingly racist country, it's something that comes up more than racism.
    - Der_Einzige 7y ago
      At no point was the author ever claiming that the US is a disgusting or racist country. At best, the author noted a minor uptick in racist acts as a result of corona, which is objectively true. You are projecting your concern about a narrative that the author is not contributing to.
    - wenc 7y ago
      I find virtue-signaling tiresome myself, but in this case I don't think the author was virtue-signalling or being an SJW. There are some real concerns around xenophobic responses around the world and I think the author wrote those words sincerely. Plus I don't think she was referring to the U.S. specifically. When people are fearful, their higher executive functions become impaired, and it is exactly these executive functions that are needed to weigh the facts and to avoid impulse blaming, which in this context manifests in xenophobic behaviors. All of us need occasional reminders to help us realize that we can rise above our baser survival instincts. We all impulse-blame -- that's just human nature, I do it too. But we can do better than that.
Fnoord 7y ago
> Relative to Other Countries, US Labor and Healthcare Policies are a Perfect Storm for Pandemics > Zero universal guaranteed paid sick leave [1] The United States of America in the same list as India, North Korea, South Korea, Somalia, Angola, Liberia, and Guinea-Bissau. Some of these countries are poor or low income. The USA isn't one of them though. I'd be ashamed of my country. In The Netherlands, an entire [large] province (North Brabant) has been ordered to stay home if they have anything resembling illness. People are asked to work from home. Children can't go to school. Still, working from home is better than nothing. Also, some people are in quarantine. The people who have COVID-19 but otherwise don't have it severe can stay home, in quarantine, instead of in the hospital. One thing I wish I knew way earlier is that COVID-19 victims rarely suffer from a runny nose. I recently got it from Our World In Data [2], it was linked here on HN. I did not read about this in our local media, sadly. [1] https://www.worldpolicycenter.org/policies/for-how-long-are-workers-guaranteed-paid-sick-leave https://www.worldpolicycenter.org/policies/for-how-long-are-... [2] https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2020/03/Coronavirus-Symptoms-%E2%80%93-WHO-joint-mission-1.png https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2020/03/Coronavirus-Sympt...
- TheAdamAndChe 7y ago
  Yes, a dry cough, sore throat, and a temperature over 101°F are the most common symptoms of the virus. It shouldn't affect the sinuses too much.
  - ajross 7y ago
    Sore throat is not a known common symptom to COVID-19. The standard list being propagated by public health organizations[1] is: fever (nothing about 101F specifically that I'm aware of), cough, and breathing trouble (e.g. shortness of breath, pneumonia, chest tightness). Upper respiratory symptoms like sore throat are significantly less common with COVID-19 than they are with most viral infections, though obviously the instance isn't going to be zero. Obviously to some extent this is just pedantry, but at times like this it's really important that we get these things right consistently. If all you have is a sore throat you are very unlikely to have COVID-19 given what we know right now. [1] Here's the Mayo clinic's: https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/symptoms-causes/syc-20479963 https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/s...
avip 7y ago
I like the rational way it was presented. I'm going to unilaterally declare a WFH period starting tomorrow. My tiny contribution.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
3JPLW 7y ago
The content is awesome and the site is starting to struggle with the demand. Here's a cache/mirror/archive (ctrl-f) in case it goes down completely: https://archive.is/Du1G2 https://archive.is/Du1G2
lend000 7y ago
As I suggested on another thread (and received some flak for it), it would be really interesting to see some math and/or a simulation to compare these two scenarios. In reality, closer to 30% than 100% of the world population will end up being infected by a disease like this (look at Spanish flu or Swine flu for reference [0]), and the total number of infected is probably different between the two curves. Consider a hypothetical scenario: authorities encourage young and healthy people to go out and about their daily lives and get sick, and they institute a voluntary quarantine for people who would be considered highly at risk. Would more or fewer "at-risk" people become infected? These are some other factors to consider: - Could a short term quarantine for at-risk groups (shorter because the faster general infection rate would result in faster herd immunity) be more effective? Do quarantines and social distancing measures suffer from "quarantine fatigue"? - What are the comparative mortality rates between people with medical care and those without it? (i.e. those in an overwhelmed system due to the fast spreading scenario) - Does recovering from the illness result in strong immunity? - What are the comparative costs of quarantines to society and economy at large? - At what point is a vaccine or treatment likely to be widely available (if it is soon, then the slower spread is obviously crucial). I suspect the answer is very nuanced. If I get some time, I will put together a simulation and try my hand at the math, but I am curious if anyone has already considered and compared these factors quantitatively. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu
- lihaciudaniel 7y ago
  >At what point is a vaccine or treatment likely to be widely available Just like it said in the article, 12-24 if we are lucky.
generalpass 7y ago
This site is about pursuing a political agenda.
- goostavos 7y ago
  Good lord, the site is not _about_ pursuing a political agenda. It includes one in the middle, sure (somewhat distastefully imo. Never waste a good crisis, I guess), but let's not throw the baby out with the bath water. The content itself is solid.
  - generalpass 7y ago
    If the site is not pursuing a political agenda, why put that stuff in there? All it does is interfere because people who disagree with all of those claims may ignore the whole thing. If it doesn't help, take it out. Otherwise, it's about politics.
    - SketchySeaBeast 7y ago
      What stuff in particular are you referring to?
      - generalpass 7y ago
        > Relative to Other Countries, US Labor and Healthcare Policies are a Perfect Storm for Pandemics > > Zero universal guaranteed paid sick leave > Even among those with paid sick leave, the covered time frame is often on the order of days, not the weeks adequate to account for prolonged illness. > Zero guaranteed paid family leave to care for sick members > Zero guaranteed financial or operational support for people who should self-quarantine. People are therefore ignoring quarantine because they need to eat. > Many people are uninsured. Given where things are right now (cryptic transmission and no available vaccine), the insurance companies have a moral obligation but have no financial incentive to improve testing and ensure access to care. > In the USA insurance is tied to their employment, so when they get sick they are also vulnerable to bankruptcy. In a pandemic year this is devastating for an economy. > Never has there been a clearer case for single-payer health care as a public good. The voting public in the US need to care as much about “keeping their doctor” as they do about keeping their doctor alive. Doctors worldwide are getting pummeled on the frontlines of this crisis, the lack of protective equipment is causing them to get infected, and themselves unable to get the care they need. For a personal lens on this, have a look here, but this is by no means unique; the accounts are flooding in.
thoraway1010 7y ago
Interesting that the advice here - masks not helpful - is almost totally and directly contradicted by the advice in all infectious disease transmission training, most other countries that have flattened the curve by dramatically increasing supply and distribution with mandated mask wearing, making them available at the post office etc. The odd image of folks wearing masks saying masks don't help is not lost on most americans. Here's a different doctors advice on masks: The only way for the virus to infect you is through your nose or mouth via your hands or an infected cough or sneeze onto or into your nose or mouth. Use disposable surgical masks and use them to prevent you from touching your nose and/or mouth (We touch our nose/mouth 90X/day without knowing it!). This is the only way this virus can infect you - it is lung-specific. The mask is just to prevent hand to mouth contact, it will not avoid the sneeze part of things. Masks are a low cost, non-hospital, low side effect, low economic impact intervention. Even if only minimally effective there are very few downsides to mask usage for an individual. I've come to think that the re-assurance that this virus is "fully contained" - see Kudlow, that masks don't help (see this and others) will come back as some pretty bad advice later on. We'll see I guess.
- cma 7y ago
  They are worried about the image of Americans wearing masks on TV. When that congressman in Trump’s plane found out he had been exposed mid-flight, they didn’t put a mask on him (at least not when he exited the plane). So even in a national security critical situation (president is in 70s), image is way more important.
  - thoraway1010 7y ago
    Yes - I've heard that. The whole don't want to worry people by wearing masks. If you aren't wearing a mask a sneeze near me I'm more worried not less. I don't know where the don't wear masks they aren't helpful push came from. I think perhaps a misguided attempt to deal with a resource constraint (ie, lie to them about mask benefit so they won't wear them and worry others and won't use them?) It's totally unique to the US however. Asia is going the other way.
- shkkmo 7y ago
nimbius 7y ago
speaking as someone who served in the army national guard, this pandemic isnt nearly as devastating as a natural disaster. So long as there is still clean water, electricity, and communications systems online, you're okay. A few tips on things that can be stocked (or should be checked) for general disaster preparedness: 0. bottles of clean water. Old milk jugs of tap h20 will do. 1. dry goods like beans and rice which are compatible with boil-water advisories. peanut butter is also good. 2. a fever reducer of some sort. even a few Acetaminophen or aspirin. 3. Cheap bar soap. dollar store or discount brand. The article is correct in that every emergency needs good hygiene. bar soap can be split up among family members. if you're handy with technology, you should consider an amateur radio license. http://www.arrl.org/ http://www.arrl.org/ amateur operators are absolutely appreciated by military and red cross workers as the fastest way to get in touch with affected communities.
- bloopernova 7y ago
  > dry goods like beans and rice Rice is relatively quick and easy to boil and cook. However dried beans can take a lot of boiling and soaking to become edible. I'm not trying to say don't store dried beans, but just be aware of their cooking requirements.
  - vorpalhex 7y ago
    You can soak them for 24 hours at room temperature before you intend to cook them normally. You can even re-use the soaking water if you need to.
  - starpilot 7y ago
    Red lentils cook much quicker.
  - wpietri 7y ago
    For dried beans, I recommend Bittman's quick-soak approach. Basically you throw the beans in a lot of water, get them to boiling, and then let them sit for a couple hours. It's equivalent to soaking them overnight. Then cook as normal. Details here: https://www.markbittman.com/recipes-1/cooked-beans-the-quick-soak-way https://www.markbittman.com/recipes-1/cooked-beans-the-quick...
wtvanhest 7y ago
This is a great resource, but I hope that the author sees this comment. If you want to maximize credibility, remove the line about supporting artists, and anything that can be perceived as political like the line about healthcare. Artists are a small percentage of people impacted, restaurant workers, nail salons, retail, hotels, airline employees, contractors, massage professionals etc. The list is almost limitless. If you are in another group, you are going to read that line, and think, what about me? Healthcare is a politically charged issue, right or wrong, listing that here discredits the message for half the readers. The overall message is important, and I encourage the author to make a few tweaks to get it in front of more people and save lives.
- sigstoat 7y ago
  > Healthcare is a politically charged issue, right or wrong, listing that here discredits the message for half the readers. and regardless of what one thinks about the issue, there is no way the US is passing sweeping legislation overhauling the whole system, and getting it implemented, in time to do any good at all in the current situation.
  - maxerickson 7y ago
    You don't need sweeping reform to bolster confidence in the healthcare system, a targeted emergency appropriation can go a long way. Congress saying they are going to pass a bill to pay for testing and then doing it would not be difficult, and it would reduce qualms about getting tests.
    - HarryHirsch 7y ago
      Who is going to pay the bill for the massive run on hospitals that is going to take place in early May, if Italy is any guide? Unless the major health insurers have adequate reinsurance in place, they are going to go belly-up. Same with hospital providers, they are going to have to provide surge capacity, yet in the last 30 years they have been run by economists who have been trained in the just-in-time mindset. There will have to be a bailout, and the aftermath should mean nationalization. Public health has been neglected for far too long.
aazaa 7y ago
Part of the problem is that too many people look at the current state of their communities and conclude everything is all right. What they're failing to consider is that Wuhan, Italy, New York, Seattle, and San Jose are not anomalies. If your community has no reported infections, it's rapidly becoming the anomaly. Consider those places you keep hearing about as a glimpse into the future - your future. Then take steps to do what you can as an individual to prevent that from happening.
blargmaster33 7y ago
This quickly turned into communist propaganda
phasetransition 7y ago
Has someone with industrial strength hosting made sure this page is going to stay up, and/or created static mirrors?
kasperni 7y ago
This graph showing how many days other countries are behind Italy's infection rate is quite alarming [1]. Especially the close alignment of most of the countries. [1] https://ibb.co/gZDfgPy https://ibb.co/gZDfgPy Edit: Sorry, I didn't include the original source. I had taken a screenshot and couldn't find the original article. But the original data is from Mark J Handley [2] who is (non-medical) Professor of Networked Systems and part-time Roboticist at UCL. And the article I took the picture from is at [3] (I don't normally read the Daily Mail, I promise). [2] https://twitter.com/MarkJHandley/status/1237119688578138112 https://twitter.com/MarkJHandley/status/1237119688578138112 [3] https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8095299/Man-underlying-health-conditions-80s-UKs-SIXTH-coronavirus-death.html https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8095299/Man-under...
- ptx 7y ago
  Excellently informative graph! I had been meaning to plot something just like it but got distracted by other things. Do you have a source for the data and/or the graph?
  - TeMPOraL 7y ago
    Here's the data provided by Johns Hopkins University; they collect WHO and CSSE reports. That's what you see on the popular JHU coronavirus map (though the repository is often few hours behind the map). https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19 https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19
- mazesc 7y ago
  Do you have a source for this image/the data in this image? It's a great plot, but would like to confirm the veracity.
  - bonzini 7y ago
    Here is an ugly chart I made using Johns Hopkins data: https://mobile.twitter.com/fagiolinux/status/1237059898304847874 https://mobile.twitter.com/fagiolinux/status/123705989830484... I used logarithmic scale and normalized per million people, so despite the ugliness the exponential growth is quite clear, even in countries with relatively few cases.
joejohnson 7y ago
Good resource, although a bit America-centric
planetjones 7y ago
There’s a Symptoms graphic on that site attributed to the WHO. For sneezing and Coronavirus it says ‘no’. Can the author of the website or someone else please provide a hyperlink to the original source of that graphic, so its authenticity can be validated.
lihaciudaniel 7y ago
Here where I lived they canceled schools for 2 weeks and all sport events.
jstummbillig 7y ago
A whooping 430 points, posted 3 hours ago, overall favorable comments. I am very confused as to how or why this slipped to page 3 already.
- dang 7y ago
  It's being flagged by users, and also downweighted by mods. HN has had a ton of these threads already, and there are other covid-19-related posts on the front page. Take a look at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22527396 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22527396 for a fuller explanation, and if there's still something I haven't answered, let me know.
  - jstummbillig 7y ago
    Fair enough! Thanks for the clarification.
kiewszvaf123 7y ago
Kieswzv ni jj de dkwhkdbd123€+(396373637€7

510 points by tectonic 7y ago

Does anyone of the time series by country? The United States just reaches 800 tested infections. I think we had 88 on March 1. Would like to see how fast the recent numbers are growing.

fullshark 7y ago
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ US: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
PureParadigm 7y ago
Wikipedia tends to have decent graphs in the article for the outbreaks. Here's the one for the United States: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_the_United_States#Cases https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_t...
ComputerGuru 7y ago
Illinois cases had been growing slowly but they just jumped from 7 yesterday to 11 today.
- ComputerGuru 7y ago
  19 now.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
humaniania 7y ago
The World Health Organization publishes daily situation reports with break downs by country https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2...
joshuahedlund 7y ago
worldometers has more complete info but here is an interesting chart I've also been tracking that compares the exponential growth of several countries after they reached 100 cases https://studylib.net/coronavirus-growth https://studylib.net/coronavirus-growth Despite the differences in start times, the similarities in the curves are remarkable - although so are the deviations. I've basically been watching the US follow the same path as a few European countries, just on a lag of a few days.
- abeppu 7y ago
  I'm curious -- are there things that Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong doing that we should all copy? Their trajectory looks pretty different from that of other countries.
- petschge 7y ago
  Could you do the same with time after 500 (or 1000) cases. There is a whole bunch of parallel curves that seem to be displaced mostly because of differences in early testing but otherwise show the same growth rate.
- lubujackson 7y ago
  Awesome idea. But I'm curious about your data source since I don't see the biggest spike when China revised their numbers. How did you smooth that out?
cVwEq 7y ago
Downloadable database of historical data by country [1], used for the Johns Hopkins CSSE COVID-19 dashboard [2]. [1] https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19 https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19 [2] https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594...

ColinWright 7y ago

Discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22535650 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22535650 Editing in response to the comments below ... This submission is of a different resource. This resource goes into more detail about lots of things. However, the "Flatten the Curve" idea had already been submitted in the referenced submission above. It was less complete, but had already sparked a large discussion. So should the resulting discussion be started all over again here on this, more complete submission? Or should the discussion remain in one primary location to avoid repetition and to gather the insights, thoughts, rebuttals etc in one place? Who knows ... I provided the cross-reference to allow the decision to be made. This submission has now hit the top spot on the front page and is spawning a conversation. So the decision is made, and the cross-reference has been rendered moot. Further edit ... I think it unreasonable that the people who responded to me should be downvoted, and I've upvoted them in an attempt to balance that. I think the comments are fair and reasonable, and belong in the discussion.

throwanem 7y ago
That discussion revolves around a wholly different resource.
- ColinWright 7y ago
  Except that the discussion is common ... it's all about the concept of flattening the curve to reduce the peak and thereby not exceed the capacity of the health service. It's the same data, it's the same idea, it's the same argument, but from a different source. It's also all now all over the place ... I could find 8 or 10 different sites to submit, all with the same message. Is it useful then to have 8 or 10 discussion on HN all hacking over the same ground, all making the same points, all having the same "insights" and disagreements? I think not, and that's why I linked this submission to the existing discussion.
  - frereubu 7y ago
    I think you needed to give more context, which you might be able to do if you can still edit it. “Discussion” could mean anything.

xyzzyz 7y ago

Why put the goal at flattening, instead of just killing it completely? If you observably flatten the curve, you're already almost all of the way to get R_0 to below 1. Why not just go all the way? The Chinese seem to have managed it, why aim at anything less?

chickenpotpie 7y ago
We would love to kill it, but that's not really an option right now. To kill it we either need a vaccine or to quarantine every single person 24/7 because we don't know who has it. We don't have a vaccine yet and the other option would completely kill all economic activity. More people would die from lack of access to food, water, and emergency services.
- haunter 7y ago
  >More people would die from lack of access to food, water, and emergency services. Any proof for that, I guess based on China?
lazide 7y ago
Because, between the lines, the level of top down, military like action and trampling of civil rights that is possible in China is likely not possible here without sparking a civil war - making the whole situation worse.
- Fnoord 7y ago
  We'll have to see how its gonna play out in Italy after their lockdown.
- inscionent 7y ago
  Civil War? Do you hear yourself. Take a breath.
  - wpietri 7y ago
    I think you underestimate the number of people with weapons, a serious anti-government attitude, and some strong beliefs that most people would consider at best wacky. I don't think a civil war is likely. But when we look at past incidents like Waco, Ruby Ridge, Oklahoma City, Jade Helm [1], and Malheur, it's not absurd. A few years back I stopped at a blueberry farm just off the highway in Oregon. In under 10 minutes of conversation, a very nice grandmother was explaining how the Obama administration had made a deal so the UN could come in black helicopters and take all their guns, but that they were ready for it. I got my blueberries and got out. But you can bet that there are a whole lot of people with guns and Millenarianist notions that are sure that this time it's really the end times, and that would not take kindly to government-enforced quarantines. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jade_Helm_15_conspiracy_theories https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jade_Helm_15_conspiracy_theori...

chickenpotpie 7y ago

It's so nice to see someone who has the qualifications explain so clearly why the efforts we're making are important. I live in Seattle and I have a hard time explaining to my mother why me working from home and avoiding public events is important right now. She just keeps stating that everyone is going to get it eventually and it won't matter.

drcode 7y ago
Also nice that the appropriate domain wasn't squatted by some jerk.
- seane 7y ago
  Haha. I guess I’m that jerk. Basically, I saw that this domain was available and saw the increasing talk of “flattening the curve” on Twitter. I grabbed it and wanted to do something helpful, like post just the pic of the tall and flat graph that was making the rounds, because I loved how simple the visual was, and how powerful the point it made. I thought at least people could share the concept easily. But then someone shared Julie’s post, which was living on a gdoc at the time, and even that was struggling with the amount of readers... and was very much not an easily shareable link. So I reached out and asked if she’d like to have it live at flattenthecurve.com, and promised to give her a login to update and add more info etc. She said yes and I got the site live in half a day mostly spent reformatting the gdoc into WP. I’m thrilled that the domain is really living up to its best use!
  - CydeWeys 7y ago
    Nice work! Glad to see strangers come together and work on this in such a short timeline.
  - stareatgoats 7y ago
    Thanks!
  - drcode 7y ago
    You are a good human!

isoskeles 7y ago

> 2.8.2.12 DO NOT BE RACIST I long for the day that concern trolling and virtue signalling are not included in otherwise helpful resources like this one.

ncallaway 7y ago
I'll do my very best to ensure that you never see that day!
Der_Einzige 7y ago
This is not concern trolling or virtue signalling. What you're doing is closer to both of those words than what the author did. Especially if you read the two sentences that the author writes under that section. It's pretty damn tame. (and that's why I'm pretty sure you didn't based on your response)
- isoskeles 7y ago
  I did read them and agree that they're tame. I just disagree with the constant narrative that the US is some disgustingly racist country, it's something that comes up more than racism.
  - Der_Einzige 7y ago
    At no point was the author ever claiming that the US is a disgusting or racist country. At best, the author noted a minor uptick in racist acts as a result of corona, which is objectively true. You are projecting your concern about a narrative that the author is not contributing to.
  - wenc 7y ago
    I find virtue-signaling tiresome myself, but in this case I don't think the author was virtue-signalling or being an SJW. There are some real concerns around xenophobic responses around the world and I think the author wrote those words sincerely. Plus I don't think she was referring to the U.S. specifically. When people are fearful, their higher executive functions become impaired, and it is exactly these executive functions that are needed to weigh the facts and to avoid impulse blaming, which in this context manifests in xenophobic behaviors. All of us need occasional reminders to help us realize that we can rise above our baser survival instincts. We all impulse-blame -- that's just human nature, I do it too. But we can do better than that.

Fnoord 7y ago

> Relative to Other Countries, US Labor and Healthcare Policies are a Perfect Storm for Pandemics > Zero universal guaranteed paid sick leave [1] The United States of America in the same list as India, North Korea, South Korea, Somalia, Angola, Liberia, and Guinea-Bissau. Some of these countries are poor or low income. The USA isn't one of them though. I'd be ashamed of my country. In The Netherlands, an entire [large] province (North Brabant) has been ordered to stay home if they have anything resembling illness. People are asked to work from home. Children can't go to school. Still, working from home is better than nothing. Also, some people are in quarantine. The people who have COVID-19 but otherwise don't have it severe can stay home, in quarantine, instead of in the hospital. One thing I wish I knew way earlier is that COVID-19 victims rarely suffer from a runny nose. I recently got it from Our World In Data [2], it was linked here on HN. I did not read about this in our local media, sadly. [1] https://www.worldpolicycenter.org/policies/for-how-long-are-workers-guaranteed-paid-sick-leave https://www.worldpolicycenter.org/policies/for-how-long-are-... [2] https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2020/03/Coronavirus-Symptoms-%E2%80%93-WHO-joint-mission-1.png https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2020/03/Coronavirus-Sympt...

TheAdamAndChe 7y ago
Yes, a dry cough, sore throat, and a temperature over 101°F are the most common symptoms of the virus. It shouldn't affect the sinuses too much.
- ajross 7y ago
  Sore throat is not a known common symptom to COVID-19. The standard list being propagated by public health organizations[1] is: fever (nothing about 101F specifically that I'm aware of), cough, and breathing trouble (e.g. shortness of breath, pneumonia, chest tightness). Upper respiratory symptoms like sore throat are significantly less common with COVID-19 than they are with most viral infections, though obviously the instance isn't going to be zero. Obviously to some extent this is just pedantry, but at times like this it's really important that we get these things right consistently. If all you have is a sore throat you are very unlikely to have COVID-19 given what we know right now. [1] Here's the Mayo clinic's: https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/symptoms-causes/syc-20479963 https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/s...

avip 7y ago

I like the rational way it was presented. I'm going to unilaterally declare a WFH period starting tomorrow. My tiny contribution.

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]

3JPLW 7y ago

The content is awesome and the site is starting to struggle with the demand. Here's a cache/mirror/archive (ctrl-f) in case it goes down completely: https://archive.is/Du1G2 https://archive.is/Du1G2

lend000 7y ago

As I suggested on another thread (and received some flak for it), it would be really interesting to see some math and/or a simulation to compare these two scenarios. In reality, closer to 30% than 100% of the world population will end up being infected by a disease like this (look at Spanish flu or Swine flu for reference [0]), and the total number of infected is probably different between the two curves. Consider a hypothetical scenario: authorities encourage young and healthy people to go out and about their daily lives and get sick, and they institute a voluntary quarantine for people who would be considered highly at risk. Would more or fewer "at-risk" people become infected? These are some other factors to consider: - Could a short term quarantine for at-risk groups (shorter because the faster general infection rate would result in faster herd immunity) be more effective? Do quarantines and social distancing measures suffer from "quarantine fatigue"? - What are the comparative mortality rates between people with medical care and those without it? (i.e. those in an overwhelmed system due to the fast spreading scenario) - Does recovering from the illness result in strong immunity? - What are the comparative costs of quarantines to society and economy at large? - At what point is a vaccine or treatment likely to be widely available (if it is soon, then the slower spread is obviously crucial). I suspect the answer is very nuanced. If I get some time, I will put together a simulation and try my hand at the math, but I am curious if anyone has already considered and compared these factors quantitatively. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

lihaciudaniel 7y ago
>At what point is a vaccine or treatment likely to be widely available Just like it said in the article, 12-24 if we are lucky.

generalpass 7y ago

This site is about pursuing a political agenda.

goostavos 7y ago
Good lord, the site is not _about_ pursuing a political agenda. It includes one in the middle, sure (somewhat distastefully imo. Never waste a good crisis, I guess), but let's not throw the baby out with the bath water. The content itself is solid.
- generalpass 7y ago
  If the site is not pursuing a political agenda, why put that stuff in there? All it does is interfere because people who disagree with all of those claims may ignore the whole thing. If it doesn't help, take it out. Otherwise, it's about politics.
  - SketchySeaBeast 7y ago
    What stuff in particular are you referring to?
    - generalpass 7y ago
      > Relative to Other Countries, US Labor and Healthcare Policies are a Perfect Storm for Pandemics > > Zero universal guaranteed paid sick leave > Even among those with paid sick leave, the covered time frame is often on the order of days, not the weeks adequate to account for prolonged illness. > Zero guaranteed paid family leave to care for sick members > Zero guaranteed financial or operational support for people who should self-quarantine. People are therefore ignoring quarantine because they need to eat. > Many people are uninsured. Given where things are right now (cryptic transmission and no available vaccine), the insurance companies have a moral obligation but have no financial incentive to improve testing and ensure access to care. > In the USA insurance is tied to their employment, so when they get sick they are also vulnerable to bankruptcy. In a pandemic year this is devastating for an economy. > Never has there been a clearer case for single-payer health care as a public good. The voting public in the US need to care as much about “keeping their doctor” as they do about keeping their doctor alive. Doctors worldwide are getting pummeled on the frontlines of this crisis, the lack of protective equipment is causing them to get infected, and themselves unable to get the care they need. For a personal lens on this, have a look here, but this is by no means unique; the accounts are flooding in.

thoraway1010 7y ago

Interesting that the advice here - masks not helpful - is almost totally and directly contradicted by the advice in all infectious disease transmission training, most other countries that have flattened the curve by dramatically increasing supply and distribution with mandated mask wearing, making them available at the post office etc. The odd image of folks wearing masks saying masks don't help is not lost on most americans. Here's a different doctors advice on masks: The only way for the virus to infect you is through your nose or mouth via your hands or an infected cough or sneeze onto or into your nose or mouth. Use disposable surgical masks and use them to prevent you from touching your nose and/or mouth (We touch our nose/mouth 90X/day without knowing it!). This is the only way this virus can infect you - it is lung-specific. The mask is just to prevent hand to mouth contact, it will not avoid the sneeze part of things. Masks are a low cost, non-hospital, low side effect, low economic impact intervention. Even if only minimally effective there are very few downsides to mask usage for an individual. I've come to think that the re-assurance that this virus is "fully contained" - see Kudlow, that masks don't help (see this and others) will come back as some pretty bad advice later on. We'll see I guess.

cma 7y ago
They are worried about the image of Americans wearing masks on TV. When that congressman in Trump’s plane found out he had been exposed mid-flight, they didn’t put a mask on him (at least not when he exited the plane). So even in a national security critical situation (president is in 70s), image is way more important.
- thoraway1010 7y ago
  Yes - I've heard that. The whole don't want to worry people by wearing masks. If you aren't wearing a mask a sneeze near me I'm more worried not less. I don't know where the don't wear masks they aren't helpful push came from. I think perhaps a misguided attempt to deal with a resource constraint (ie, lie to them about mask benefit so they won't wear them and worry others and won't use them?) It's totally unique to the US however. Asia is going the other way.
shkkmo 7y ago

nimbius 7y ago

speaking as someone who served in the army national guard, this pandemic isnt nearly as devastating as a natural disaster. So long as there is still clean water, electricity, and communications systems online, you're okay. A few tips on things that can be stocked (or should be checked) for general disaster preparedness: 0. bottles of clean water. Old milk jugs of tap h20 will do. 1. dry goods like beans and rice which are compatible with boil-water advisories. peanut butter is also good. 2. a fever reducer of some sort. even a few Acetaminophen or aspirin. 3. Cheap bar soap. dollar store or discount brand. The article is correct in that every emergency needs good hygiene. bar soap can be split up among family members. if you're handy with technology, you should consider an amateur radio license. http://www.arrl.org/ http://www.arrl.org/ amateur operators are absolutely appreciated by military and red cross workers as the fastest way to get in touch with affected communities.

bloopernova 7y ago
> dry goods like beans and rice Rice is relatively quick and easy to boil and cook. However dried beans can take a lot of boiling and soaking to become edible. I'm not trying to say don't store dried beans, but just be aware of their cooking requirements.
- vorpalhex 7y ago
  You can soak them for 24 hours at room temperature before you intend to cook them normally. You can even re-use the soaking water if you need to.
- starpilot 7y ago
  Red lentils cook much quicker.
- wpietri 7y ago
  For dried beans, I recommend Bittman's quick-soak approach. Basically you throw the beans in a lot of water, get them to boiling, and then let them sit for a couple hours. It's equivalent to soaking them overnight. Then cook as normal. Details here: https://www.markbittman.com/recipes-1/cooked-beans-the-quick-soak-way https://www.markbittman.com/recipes-1/cooked-beans-the-quick...

wtvanhest 7y ago

This is a great resource, but I hope that the author sees this comment. If you want to maximize credibility, remove the line about supporting artists, and anything that can be perceived as political like the line about healthcare. Artists are a small percentage of people impacted, restaurant workers, nail salons, retail, hotels, airline employees, contractors, massage professionals etc. The list is almost limitless. If you are in another group, you are going to read that line, and think, what about me? Healthcare is a politically charged issue, right or wrong, listing that here discredits the message for half the readers. The overall message is important, and I encourage the author to make a few tweaks to get it in front of more people and save lives.

sigstoat 7y ago
> Healthcare is a politically charged issue, right or wrong, listing that here discredits the message for half the readers. and regardless of what one thinks about the issue, there is no way the US is passing sweeping legislation overhauling the whole system, and getting it implemented, in time to do any good at all in the current situation.
- maxerickson 7y ago
  You don't need sweeping reform to bolster confidence in the healthcare system, a targeted emergency appropriation can go a long way. Congress saying they are going to pass a bill to pay for testing and then doing it would not be difficult, and it would reduce qualms about getting tests.
  - HarryHirsch 7y ago
    Who is going to pay the bill for the massive run on hospitals that is going to take place in early May, if Italy is any guide? Unless the major health insurers have adequate reinsurance in place, they are going to go belly-up. Same with hospital providers, they are going to have to provide surge capacity, yet in the last 30 years they have been run by economists who have been trained in the just-in-time mindset. There will have to be a bailout, and the aftermath should mean nationalization. Public health has been neglected for far too long.

aazaa 7y ago

Part of the problem is that too many people look at the current state of their communities and conclude everything is all right. What they're failing to consider is that Wuhan, Italy, New York, Seattle, and San Jose are not anomalies. If your community has no reported infections, it's rapidly becoming the anomaly. Consider those places you keep hearing about as a glimpse into the future - your future. Then take steps to do what you can as an individual to prevent that from happening.

blargmaster33 7y ago

This quickly turned into communist propaganda

phasetransition 7y ago

Has someone with industrial strength hosting made sure this page is going to stay up, and/or created static mirrors?

kasperni 7y ago

This graph showing how many days other countries are behind Italy's infection rate is quite alarming [1]. Especially the close alignment of most of the countries. [1] https://ibb.co/gZDfgPy https://ibb.co/gZDfgPy Edit: Sorry, I didn't include the original source. I had taken a screenshot and couldn't find the original article. But the original data is from Mark J Handley [2] who is (non-medical) Professor of Networked Systems and part-time Roboticist at UCL. And the article I took the picture from is at [3] (I don't normally read the Daily Mail, I promise). [2] https://twitter.com/MarkJHandley/status/1237119688578138112 https://twitter.com/MarkJHandley/status/1237119688578138112 [3] https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8095299/Man-underlying-health-conditions-80s-UKs-SIXTH-coronavirus-death.html https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8095299/Man-under...

ptx 7y ago
Excellently informative graph! I had been meaning to plot something just like it but got distracted by other things. Do you have a source for the data and/or the graph?
- TeMPOraL 7y ago
  Here's the data provided by Johns Hopkins University; they collect WHO and CSSE reports. That's what you see on the popular JHU coronavirus map (though the repository is often few hours behind the map). https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19 https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19
mazesc 7y ago
Do you have a source for this image/the data in this image? It's a great plot, but would like to confirm the veracity.
- bonzini 7y ago
  Here is an ugly chart I made using Johns Hopkins data: https://mobile.twitter.com/fagiolinux/status/1237059898304847874 https://mobile.twitter.com/fagiolinux/status/123705989830484... I used logarithmic scale and normalized per million people, so despite the ugliness the exponential growth is quite clear, even in countries with relatively few cases.

joejohnson 7y ago

Good resource, although a bit America-centric

planetjones 7y ago

There’s a Symptoms graphic on that site attributed to the WHO. For sneezing and Coronavirus it says ‘no’. Can the author of the website or someone else please provide a hyperlink to the original source of that graphic, so its authenticity can be validated.

lihaciudaniel 7y ago

Here where I lived they canceled schools for 2 weeks and all sport events.

jstummbillig 7y ago

A whooping 430 points, posted 3 hours ago, overall favorable comments. I am very confused as to how or why this slipped to page 3 already.

dang 7y ago
It's being flagged by users, and also downweighted by mods. HN has had a ton of these threads already, and there are other covid-19-related posts on the front page. Take a look at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22527396 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22527396 for a fuller explanation, and if there's still something I haven't answered, let me know.
- jstummbillig 7y ago
  Fair enough! Thanks for the clarification.

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