24 ms·

CDC outlines what closing schools, businesses would look like in US pandemic

192 points by themgt 7y ago

Reedx 7y ago
It's looking like Coronavirus will be rocket fuel for all things remote. Work, schooling, conferences... I think we'll see a lot of new tools and processes emerge. More companies, schools, conferences being remote friendly. Anyone seeing concrete signs of this at your employer or school yet? And what other second-order effects do you think we'll see?
- jcranmer 7y ago
  My workplace sent out this update not an hour ago: > From March 2nd, employees should not attend any large meetings or events that are not hosted and controlled by [company], or where attendees cannot be confirmed as following a comparable travel policy. Individual or small group meetings where you can verify the travel histories of all attendees are fine.
  - jonahbenton 7y ago
    Are you US based? Care to say what city?
  - orhmeh09 7y ago
    To clarify: Is your workplace asking you to refrain from attending meetings or events, even in your private life, unless it is directly concerning your job there?
    - jcranmer 7y ago
      No, this is in regards to official business travel. Personal travel is entirely separate, and is right now at the stage of "if you visit <any of the hardest-hit countries>, work from home for two weeks before coming into the office."
- troydavis 7y ago
  On Monday, 200 million kids in China started the semester online (in at least a minimal form): https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/in-china-200-million-kids-have-gone-back-to-school-online/2020/02/17/e5cc6f10-5131-11ea-80ce-37a8d4266c09_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/in-china-2... "The Ministry of Education on Monday introduced a 'national Internet cloud classroom' supported by more than 7,000 servers and designed to cater to 50 million elementary and middle school students at the same time. Lessons cover 12 academic subjects, including 'moral education' and 'epidemic education.'"
- pesfandiar 7y ago
  We have a forced 2-week work from home policy for people who've just returned from China. My employer is known to be relatively remote friendly, so it wasn't a huge deal.
- PragmaticPulp 7y ago
  > It's looking like Coronavirus will be rocket fuel for all things remote. Work, schooling, conferences... I worked at a company that was forced to go all-remote very suddenly when our office space had some issues. We made it work, but it was a struggle. Tossing unprepared people into the deep end of remote work is not a recipe for success. Many of our employees had young children at home and no dedicated, quiet working space. Others couldn't handle the sudden change to remote communication. A few people tried to treat it like an extended vacation, doing the bare minimum to respond to e-mails from their phones. Some people excelled at remote work, but many others failed to adapt. If anything, it turned company leadership off of the idea of remote work for a long, long time.
- Alex3917 7y ago
  > Anyone seeing concrete signs of this at your employer or school yet? I make software in the workplace collaboration and knowledge sharing space, and we've been seeing a big uptick of interest in the last few weeks. In our case it mostly isn't because of COVID-19, I think there are a couple other macro trends that are driving interest in the space right now and then this will be another one.
- ta999999171 7y ago
  And totalitarianism.....
y-c-o-m-b 7y ago
I'm lucky enough to work remotely so if schools do close, I can still earn a living while the kids are at home. I can't even imagine what kind of hell it's going to bring parents if schools shut down for any extended period of time. Same thing with small businesses - shutting them down is really going to hurt local economies. In my city, small business are about to shut down because of construction on a main stretch of road where people would ordinarily find parking. With no parking spaces, the businesses are on the verge of collapsing due to lack of customers. A shut-down due to this virus would really be catastrophic.
- ianlevesque 7y ago
  Sure, but killing 2% of the world population instead of closing down a couple stores also seems bad.
  - leesec 7y ago
    It's not "a couple stores". On a shutdown of sufficient enough scale, you're going to kill more people by lack of income / products, than by letting the virus run its course.
  - throwawayhhakdl 7y ago
    That’s not a fair thing to say. Closing businesses doesn’t guarantee anything about the virus. The halting of economic activity, even temporarily, can devastate people’s lives because it doesn’t always come back and many people already live paycheck to paycheck.
  - AncientTree 7y ago
    The 2% figure is misleading, mortality is overwhelmingly restricted to the elderly and particularly those with existing health problems: PRE-EXISTING CONDITION DEATH RATE* Cardiovascular disease 10.5% Diabetes 7.3% Chronic respiratory disease 6.3% Hypertension 6.0% Cancer 5.6% no pre-existing conditions 0.9% AGE DEATH RATE* 80+ years old 14.8% 70-79 years old 8.0% 60-69 years old 3.6% 50-59 years old 1.3% 40-49 years old 0.4% 30-39 years old 0.2% 20-29 years old 0.2% 10-19 years old 0.2% 0-9 years old no fatalities Shutting down the economy and quarantining whole areas will do more harm than the virus. Tens of thousands of Americans already die of the flu and Coronavirus us just a very virulent form of that. I realise that its grim to talk about, but there may actually be economic benefits from the very sickest dying from the virus and thus relieving the burden of large pension and healthcare expenses.
robomartin 7y ago
I'm advising everyone in my circle to prepare for a 30 to 45 day at-home stay and assume no stores will be open during that time. I think this is the prudent thing to do. I would also advise speaking to your neighbors to make them aware of the need to be prepared. To that point, buy a little extra of everything --well, maybe food only-- so you can help a few people out during what is likely to be a difficult time. Happy neighbors are as important to safety as anything else. I'm actually thinking of making a preparedness checklist and going door-to-door around the neighborhood to hand them out.
- robomartin 7y ago
  I am absolutely baffled that someone would down-vote this comment. I don't understand. I would love for someone to actually match their down-vote with an explanation. Maybe there's something to be learned there. Having lived through at least a couple of important earthquakes in the Los Angeles region I can tell you, without a shadow of a doubt, you do not want to wait until the last minute to get ready for any kind of an out of the norm situation. Then there's the question of what would constitute responsible behavior in the event of COVID-19 getting more serious in the US. I would guess this would, at a minimum, include preparing to stay home for somewhere around 30 to 45 days, particularly considering that we are starting to think the incubation period could be as long as 27 days. And so, from this perspective alone --that of being a responsible citizen-- I am not equipped to understand someone who would down-vote advise to prepare for 30 to 45 days of at-home isolation.
  - SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
    Preparing to stay at home is reasonable. Expecting for no stores to be open isn't - even in Wuhan, stores have been open and selling essential goods.
    - rasz 7y ago
      What good is an open store when your door is welded shut and hourly police patrols prohibit anyone from going out?
allovernow 7y ago
We are witnessing a massive geopolitical event. This could be a chance for the U.S. to reassert it's global hegemony - China has been brought to its knees over this virus, and a critical weakness of globalism has been exposed, the dependence that comes with offshoring too much production. This could drive the return of manufacturing jobs to the U.S. Rumors abound in China about party members openly criticizing the government, including a petition signed by 2500 academics and professionals demanding free speech. Iran is also in full blown crisis after seeing its first case only 3 weeks ago. Two of the U.S.'s primary enemies are in "wartime conditions" dealing with 2019-ncov. This is not just another flu. This is not SARS of MERS, this is well into Spanish Flu territory and it will test the modern geopolitical establishment and the resilience of human government. At the very least it will define a generation. Edit: check the CDC's Twitter. They've suggested that individuals ,including with families, start preparing "across all sectors" saying "disruption to everyday life might be severe". The steady stream of silent downvotes I've been receiving for a few days is a testament to how far people are willing to go to deny unpleasant realities. This is why there are panics and bank runs and why the stores will be empty in cities across the U.S. in the next week or so. It's already happening in Italy.
- hodgesrm 7y ago
  Can you cite evidence of governments that were overthrown or even moderately affected by the Spanish Flu? It was a terrible epidemic but most effects seem to have been at the personal or micro-economic level.
  - allovernow 7y ago
    I'm not a historian, but you're missing the big picture. The CCP has been extremely secretive with it's handling of the virus, including employing the usual means of thought control by forcing whistleblowers to deliver public statements of apology and disappearing others. If the rumors regarding dissent are remotely true, anti government sentiment over how the virus was handled is unprecedented. There are hundreds of leaked videos online of Chinese citizens publicly expressing discontent. In 2020 it isn't just the party members that have internet access now - this virus is likely acting as a trigger for the possible end of the CCP, or at least some sort of reformation. Further, the world was not nearly as interconnected and interdependent in the 1910s. And urban density was far lower as well. What's happening in China alone is already disrupting global supply chains, and the virus has already spread to other third world manufacturing economies like Vietnam, which shut down all schools. In many ways this is a perfect storm.
dekhn 7y ago
Basically every household should already have, regardless of the origin of the disaster: 1 month of clean drinking water or reliable (tested) filtration devices and a impure water source (local streams likely to have various bacteria that will make you sick). 1 month of food that requires minimum water and fuel to cook (quick oats > slow cook oats). Enough fuel to cook that food (most of your food should not require cooking). A reliable camping stove that you have already tested. Plenty of ways to start a fire/stove. Warm clothes, blankets, med kit, sleeping bags. Soap. I've lived for 30 days in alaska on a glacier with only what I could carry in a large pack; water and fuel were the largest by weight, sleeping bag/tent/clothes were the largest by volume. By the end, campers had devolved into small groups of people who didn't share food.
- Havoc 7y ago
  >I've lived for 30 days in alaska on a glacier > devolved into small groups of people who didn't share food. In what context did this happen? Doesn't sound like a fun camping trip
  - dekhn 7y ago
    I was on a course from something like the Wilderness Education Association- basically training to be a "wilderness leader" (but the instructors were pretty clueless). Some things I learned: While in most places if it rains you will dry out after a few days, but it's so humid in alaska the only way to dry clothes is to wear them at night in a wet sleeping bag (it dries by morning). Glacier runoff rivers are no joke, we almost lost an instructor and a student while crossing. If you don't manage your food properly, you will end up subsisting on things like cake mix(!) for the last few days. When supplies get low, people act different (greedy). There's a saying: "civilization is only three meals away from anarchy", that only made sense to me after day 28.
    - Havoc 7y ago
      Cool. Thanks for answering
- 7y ago
James_Henry 7y ago
Here are some actual documents on preparing for an influenza pandemic that the CDC is repurposing to prepare people for the coronavirus because of the similarity to the spread of the flu. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/pandemic-preparedness-resources.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/pandemic-prepa... States will have their own influenza preparedness plans that they will probably be following for the coronavirus as well. One helpful thing that they advise governors to advise individuals to do is to store up food and enough (but not more than enough) medications. https://www.nga.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Pandemic-Influenza-Primer.pdf https://www.nga.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Pandemic-Infl... One thing to note is that a lot of the slowing down of disease spreading is going to be from the voluntary efforts of individuals. We should prepare ourselves and help prepare people around us to know what's up and what to do if you think you may be sick.
- numakerg 7y ago
  What are the chances that residential electricity, gas or water get shut off as a result of an outbreak in North America? I live in a mid-sized town and we have enough dry beans and cereals to last a few months, but without hot water it would be a week at most.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - James_Henry 7y ago
    I don't know the chances but some of the linked documents go over how the governments should work to minimize service disruptions like these. Of course, it will depend on the specifics of where you live, but I would guess that there are very few issues in this regard through the country.
  - jerf 7y ago
    I don't know more than anybody else. All I can tell you is that I'm not personally expecting that to happen, or at least, no more so than usual. One of the reasons for that is that there's actually multiple phases to this sort of thing. Quarantine is a response you use when trying to completely squash it early, but as the virus escapes quarantine, you go to a different strategy of trying to reduce the virus' effective r0, involving preventing mass gatherings, encouraging self-quarantine, encouraging working from home, etc. Some quarantines may still be part of the strategy, but it's not the only arrow in the quiver. It's not a matter of choosing between "quarantine everybody completely for weeks" or "everybody dies". Broadly speaking, it's reasonable to expect a very high chance that the infrastructure industry will successfully keep transmission within itself low enough that it won't actually catastrophically fail. It's a high priority and everybody knows it. A lot of the work involved in this sort of infrastructure doesn't involve being up close and personal with people. You might want to try to avoid having a plumbing problem in your residence or something, though. I live in an area prone to power outages (a 4 day outage less than a year ago, although that was an outlier), and I haven't been buffing up my "power outage" supplies. I do have them. But I've been filling up my freezer in stages instead for this. To be honest, I don't even expect the stores to completely fail, though there may be a run on them at the beginning. But the stores will be one of the biggest remaining hubs there will be, by necessity. If I can just pre-buy some stuff I would have bought anyhow and avoid having to go there at all during the containment period, it seems worth it. The extra package of toilet paper from Costco isn't going to go bad in the meantime. Let me give my generic "preparation" spiel here: Basic prep is a good idea anyhow. Society is far more resilient against a wide variety of threats when more people can last a week or two of infrastructure outage. Being prepped is the socially responsible thing to do. If this is what it takes for you to set up a bit of prep, ok, fine. It's not panic, it's being responsible. Shoot for not having to go to the grocery store for 2-3 weeks, probably. Buy things you'll use anyhow, which means you're just forward-loading some spending you'd have done anyhow. Don't forget to think beyond food; toilet paper, tissues, medicine, shampoo, soap, etc. (Fortunately most of this stuff keeps even better than food.) No need to panic. But it is a good idea to be ready, because even if COVID-19 never hits your area, someday it's going to be something. And let me emphasize again, I don't know more than anybody else; I'm just saying where I personally have put some skin in the game.
claudeganon 7y ago
The tens of millions of people in the US who are underinsured, lack sick leave, or can’t afford to miss work would seem to almost guarantee a disaster if this hits with force, no? 27% of people in the US can’t even afford a $400 emergency expense, which is (generously) the cost of maybe one visit to verify illness or moderate symptoms.
- jerf 7y ago
  "The tens of millions of people in the US who are underinsured, lack sick leave, or can’t afford to miss work would seem to almost guarantee a disaster if this hits with force, no?" Well, I mean, yeah. Have you been watching the stock market in the past few days? Everybody's got a pretty clear view of this. But "death" has that certain finality about it. A quarantine can pass in a way that death doesn't. Even a bad one.
  - claudeganon 7y ago
    Apologies, I’m not following what you’re saying with regard to death vs. quarantine.
    - avtar 7y ago
      I think they're stating a preference for a quarantine, even with all its potential impacts, since not having one could result in more deaths. Quarantines being transient in nature vs death being permanent.
      - claudeganon 7y ago
        Oh of course. I just think effective quarantines or delays of imposing them because of the underlying tenuousness of the American economy poses numerous risks. Short-sightedness is kind of a hallmark of American culture.
- sky_rw 7y ago
  Insurance is irrelevant if there aren't enough hospital beds or medical staff/facilities to handle a widespread pandemic. I think you're focusing on the wrong issue, likely based on the political nature of the current healthcare debate. The real guarantees of a disaster are: Do businesses have enough cashflow to handle lack of just in time inventory from China if their shelves run dry? Do millions of people in the US have enough cashflow to handle rent payments if jobs are shut down due to quarantine and they don't get hourly wages? Do we have enough pharmaceuticals on hand to overcome the supply dip, given that 80% of our drugs are manufactured in the Wuhan area? IMO health insurance rates are the least of our problems.
joshstrange 7y ago
Not sure if this is the right place but what would be best for one stock up on ahead of time? I'm thinking non-perishables or stuff with a high shelf life but what else should you consider buying?
- Diederich 7y ago
  Anything you need on a daily/weekly basis. We stock up on very low glycemic index protein bars and water. Lots of bottled water.
  - jcranmer 7y ago
    Bottled water isn't necessary; this isn't a situation where mother nature will render infrastructure damaged-to-nonexistent.
    - davidw 7y ago
      I mean, having a bit doesn't hurt, but I'm not seeing this as a situation where you need to go a month with no public water. But I don't really know anything about it - maybe I'm wrong.
  - davidw 7y ago
    Are problems with water supplies foreseen? This isn't some natural disaster where infrastructure is ruined, just people can't go out much.
    - digsy 7y ago
      Water plants need people to run them. And power, which means power plants need people (or fuel trucks to refuel their generators if the power goes out). If those people are sick, the water may stop flowing.
- chipuni 7y ago
  Food that you like. Medicines. Imagine that you'll be stuck in your home for three weeks. What would you need?
ilamont 7y ago
So I see this information from the CDC and news outlets, but the head of the World Health Organization seems to be saying something quite different: “For the moment, we are not witnessing the uncontained global spread of this virus, and we are not witnessing large-scale severe disease or death.” https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/02/who-tries-to-calm-talk-of-pandemic-says-the-word-does-not-fit-the-facts/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/02/who-tries-to-calm-ta...
- allovernow 7y ago
  The WHO is still using Chinese figures without any sort of disclaimer. The director of the WHO has been accused by the new York times of covering up multiple epidemics in how home country[1]. Hopefully this virus will upend the blind Faith that people recently have come to put into international establishments. 1. https://cloverchronicle.com/2020/01/30/world-health-organization-director-general-was-accused-of-covering-up-epidemics-in-2017/ https://cloverchronicle.com/2020/01/30/world-health-organiza...
  - hodgesrm 7y ago
    Just checking but what concrete alternatives would you recommend to international organizations, imperfect though they may be?
    - sky_rw 7y ago
      I would personally prefer to see a NATO based combination of the USA and EU CDC (does something like this exist?). The problem with these global organizations like the WHO and the UN is that they receive large funding from competing ideologies and interests. They end up rewarding beurocracies and politically motivated leaders. The CDC seems to be much less politically influenced and focused on their mission.
    - allovernow 7y ago
      Personal reliance. Empowering people to take protective steps at their own discretion. If you encouraged your population to, say, keep a small stockpile of rice and beans on hand (not expensive) store overruns wouldn't be such a problem during times of panic. But this would require a radical cultural shift outside of urban areas. And unfortunately individualism I think has become a bit of a slur in many circles, a manifestation of the two party split among collectivism (leftist) and individualism (rightist).
twostorytower 7y ago
I'm glad some people are starting to take this more seriously. We're still at least a few weeks away from a shift in mentality in the US. Right now, it's general apathy. Next, it'll be alert and preparedness. Last, it will be panic. I don't think it will reach chaos, but you certainly don't want to be at Costco in a few weeks. There's no downside in being prepared - worst case scenario you slowly consume the perishables or donate them. In related news, Zoom's stock is surging. I wonder if Slack's stock will eventually have a similar boom.
- trianglem 7y ago
  What does Zoom and Slack have to do with this?
  - huanwin 7y ago
    I assume that they're commonly used by remote workers/teams.
  - caseysoftware 7y ago
    In simplest terms, tools that allow you to be remote (aka stay home) and still be mostly effective are immensely valuable.
  - kradeelav 7y ago
    Remote working is most likely going to get popular as a way to limit spread of the virus.
  - Nannooskeeska 7y ago
    I'm assuming it's the increase in people working remotely, thus having to use tools like Zoom and Slack to communicate more effectively with their teams.
- rayhendricks 7y ago
  Well Costco has been selling the emergency food supplies, at least out on the Olympic peninsula. Of course I’m sure some people will capitalize off the panic, I’d be tempted to dump 50k into VTSAX and head for the hills too.
kwindla 7y ago
A good COVID-19 preparedness guide that is regularly updated and aimed at the general population: https://theprepared.com/wuhan-coronavirus/ https://theprepared.com/wuhan-coronavirus/
mehrdadn 7y ago
Anyone know if surviving with this coronavirus results in immunity to it afterward?
- techopoly 7y ago
  According to my understanding, you will possibly not gain immunity after your first infection.
- searine 7y ago
  You develop antibodies to the virus. However if that virus mutates seasonally (like influenza does for example) a different strain may still infect you at a later date. Thus far that doesn't seem to be the case but who knows what will happen in the future.
- DyslexicAtheist 7y ago
  surviving it might not be much fun either depending on the severity of the case. survivors have a 45% risk of pulmonary fibrosis (onset within 3-6 months after initial infection), then there is testicular damage in men, among others, see https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22412112 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22412112
  - y-c-o-m-b 7y ago
    > survivors have a 45% risk of pulmonary fibrosis I'm not seeing this in the link you posted ( https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.18.20024539v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.18.20024539v... ) A quick online search isn't yielding anything substantial on that either. EDIT: N/M found it, but they're saying it's a possibility due to observations found during SARS: > Gaohong Sheng et al. [20] have shown that viral infection can increase the risk of pulmonary fibrosis.Xie et al. [21] found that 45% of patients showed signs of pulmonary fibrosis within one month after being infected with SARS-CoV.Hui et al. [22] found that 36% and 30% of patients infected with SARS-CoV developed pulmonary fibrosis at 3 and 6 months after infection, respectively.Therefore, we believe that pulmonary fibrosis will become one of the serious complications in patients with 2019-nCoV infection.How to prevent and reduce the occurrence of pulmonary fibrosis in patients with 2019-nCoV infection is an urgent problem for medical workers in the treatment of 2019-nCoV.
ausbah 7y ago
as a college student, what would be the best foods other than ramen, beans, and rice to be stocking up on?
- adventured 7y ago
  Not food, however buy some cheap cases of bottled water. Usually at places like Kroger or Walmart you can find generic bottled water for ~$2.50-$3.25 for a 24 or 32 pack case. In theory the water supply should be fine, but, clean water is one thing you can die without fairly quickly (compared to food), and it's very inexpensive in non-panic times. Buy two or three cases of water and put them to the side. If everything goes fine, you can drink them regardless. If everything goes very badly, you will be thankful to have the supplies.
whb07 7y ago
Know what’s worse than this virus? Panic. This shit is no deadlier than the regular flu. If you’re not 80+ or have a bad health you’re fine. They need to fire these officials.
- 0xffff2 7y ago
  a) AFAICT we don't have enough data to reliably say how deadly it is yet. b) Despite that, what data we do have suggests that it's at least quite a bit deadlier, we're just waiting to see how much.
- notabee 7y ago
  Even the rate in younger people, such as those in their 20s, is higher than flu at 0.2%. The rate for flu in the 18-49 age range averaged about 0.001%[1] It's not just the flu. Please don't assert that without checking the numbers. 1. https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/179/2/156/123327 https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/179/2/156/123327
  - whb07 7y ago
    I'll assert that panic and fear is worse than this disease. I'll also assert that the tens of thousands that are surmised to have the virus are largely unreported therefore this disease is vastly overplayed.

192 points by themgt 7y ago

It's looking like Coronavirus will be rocket fuel for all things remote. Work, schooling, conferences... I think we'll see a lot of new tools and processes emerge. More companies, schools, conferences being remote friendly. Anyone seeing concrete signs of this at your employer or school yet? And what other second-order effects do you think we'll see?

jcranmer 7y ago
My workplace sent out this update not an hour ago: > From March 2nd, employees should not attend any large meetings or events that are not hosted and controlled by [company], or where attendees cannot be confirmed as following a comparable travel policy. Individual or small group meetings where you can verify the travel histories of all attendees are fine.
- jonahbenton 7y ago
  Are you US based? Care to say what city?
- orhmeh09 7y ago
  To clarify: Is your workplace asking you to refrain from attending meetings or events, even in your private life, unless it is directly concerning your job there?
  - jcranmer 7y ago
    No, this is in regards to official business travel. Personal travel is entirely separate, and is right now at the stage of "if you visit <any of the hardest-hit countries>, work from home for two weeks before coming into the office."
troydavis 7y ago
On Monday, 200 million kids in China started the semester online (in at least a minimal form): https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/in-china-200-million-kids-have-gone-back-to-school-online/2020/02/17/e5cc6f10-5131-11ea-80ce-37a8d4266c09_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/in-china-2... "The Ministry of Education on Monday introduced a 'national Internet cloud classroom' supported by more than 7,000 servers and designed to cater to 50 million elementary and middle school students at the same time. Lessons cover 12 academic subjects, including 'moral education' and 'epidemic education.'"
pesfandiar 7y ago
We have a forced 2-week work from home policy for people who've just returned from China. My employer is known to be relatively remote friendly, so it wasn't a huge deal.
PragmaticPulp 7y ago
> It's looking like Coronavirus will be rocket fuel for all things remote. Work, schooling, conferences... I worked at a company that was forced to go all-remote very suddenly when our office space had some issues. We made it work, but it was a struggle. Tossing unprepared people into the deep end of remote work is not a recipe for success. Many of our employees had young children at home and no dedicated, quiet working space. Others couldn't handle the sudden change to remote communication. A few people tried to treat it like an extended vacation, doing the bare minimum to respond to e-mails from their phones. Some people excelled at remote work, but many others failed to adapt. If anything, it turned company leadership off of the idea of remote work for a long, long time.
Alex3917 7y ago
> Anyone seeing concrete signs of this at your employer or school yet? I make software in the workplace collaboration and knowledge sharing space, and we've been seeing a big uptick of interest in the last few weeks. In our case it mostly isn't because of COVID-19, I think there are a couple other macro trends that are driving interest in the space right now and then this will be another one.
ta999999171 7y ago
And totalitarianism.....

y-c-o-m-b 7y ago

I'm lucky enough to work remotely so if schools do close, I can still earn a living while the kids are at home. I can't even imagine what kind of hell it's going to bring parents if schools shut down for any extended period of time. Same thing with small businesses - shutting them down is really going to hurt local economies. In my city, small business are about to shut down because of construction on a main stretch of road where people would ordinarily find parking. With no parking spaces, the businesses are on the verge of collapsing due to lack of customers. A shut-down due to this virus would really be catastrophic.

ianlevesque 7y ago
Sure, but killing 2% of the world population instead of closing down a couple stores also seems bad.
- leesec 7y ago
  It's not "a couple stores". On a shutdown of sufficient enough scale, you're going to kill more people by lack of income / products, than by letting the virus run its course.
- throwawayhhakdl 7y ago
  That’s not a fair thing to say. Closing businesses doesn’t guarantee anything about the virus. The halting of economic activity, even temporarily, can devastate people’s lives because it doesn’t always come back and many people already live paycheck to paycheck.
- AncientTree 7y ago
  The 2% figure is misleading, mortality is overwhelmingly restricted to the elderly and particularly those with existing health problems: PRE-EXISTING CONDITION DEATH RATE* Cardiovascular disease 10.5% Diabetes 7.3% Chronic respiratory disease 6.3% Hypertension 6.0% Cancer 5.6% no pre-existing conditions 0.9% AGE DEATH RATE* 80+ years old 14.8% 70-79 years old 8.0% 60-69 years old 3.6% 50-59 years old 1.3% 40-49 years old 0.4% 30-39 years old 0.2% 20-29 years old 0.2% 10-19 years old 0.2% 0-9 years old no fatalities Shutting down the economy and quarantining whole areas will do more harm than the virus. Tens of thousands of Americans already die of the flu and Coronavirus us just a very virulent form of that. I realise that its grim to talk about, but there may actually be economic benefits from the very sickest dying from the virus and thus relieving the burden of large pension and healthcare expenses.

robomartin 7y ago

I'm advising everyone in my circle to prepare for a 30 to 45 day at-home stay and assume no stores will be open during that time. I think this is the prudent thing to do. I would also advise speaking to your neighbors to make them aware of the need to be prepared. To that point, buy a little extra of everything --well, maybe food only-- so you can help a few people out during what is likely to be a difficult time. Happy neighbors are as important to safety as anything else. I'm actually thinking of making a preparedness checklist and going door-to-door around the neighborhood to hand them out.

robomartin 7y ago
I am absolutely baffled that someone would down-vote this comment. I don't understand. I would love for someone to actually match their down-vote with an explanation. Maybe there's something to be learned there. Having lived through at least a couple of important earthquakes in the Los Angeles region I can tell you, without a shadow of a doubt, you do not want to wait until the last minute to get ready for any kind of an out of the norm situation. Then there's the question of what would constitute responsible behavior in the event of COVID-19 getting more serious in the US. I would guess this would, at a minimum, include preparing to stay home for somewhere around 30 to 45 days, particularly considering that we are starting to think the incubation period could be as long as 27 days. And so, from this perspective alone --that of being a responsible citizen-- I am not equipped to understand someone who would down-vote advise to prepare for 30 to 45 days of at-home isolation.
- SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
  Preparing to stay at home is reasonable. Expecting for no stores to be open isn't - even in Wuhan, stores have been open and selling essential goods.
  - rasz 7y ago
    What good is an open store when your door is welded shut and hourly police patrols prohibit anyone from going out?

allovernow 7y ago

We are witnessing a massive geopolitical event. This could be a chance for the U.S. to reassert it's global hegemony - China has been brought to its knees over this virus, and a critical weakness of globalism has been exposed, the dependence that comes with offshoring too much production. This could drive the return of manufacturing jobs to the U.S. Rumors abound in China about party members openly criticizing the government, including a petition signed by 2500 academics and professionals demanding free speech. Iran is also in full blown crisis after seeing its first case only 3 weeks ago. Two of the U.S.'s primary enemies are in "wartime conditions" dealing with 2019-ncov. This is not just another flu. This is not SARS of MERS, this is well into Spanish Flu territory and it will test the modern geopolitical establishment and the resilience of human government. At the very least it will define a generation. Edit: check the CDC's Twitter. They've suggested that individuals ,including with families, start preparing "across all sectors" saying "disruption to everyday life might be severe". The steady stream of silent downvotes I've been receiving for a few days is a testament to how far people are willing to go to deny unpleasant realities. This is why there are panics and bank runs and why the stores will be empty in cities across the U.S. in the next week or so. It's already happening in Italy.

hodgesrm 7y ago
Can you cite evidence of governments that were overthrown or even moderately affected by the Spanish Flu? It was a terrible epidemic but most effects seem to have been at the personal or micro-economic level.
- allovernow 7y ago
  I'm not a historian, but you're missing the big picture. The CCP has been extremely secretive with it's handling of the virus, including employing the usual means of thought control by forcing whistleblowers to deliver public statements of apology and disappearing others. If the rumors regarding dissent are remotely true, anti government sentiment over how the virus was handled is unprecedented. There are hundreds of leaked videos online of Chinese citizens publicly expressing discontent. In 2020 it isn't just the party members that have internet access now - this virus is likely acting as a trigger for the possible end of the CCP, or at least some sort of reformation. Further, the world was not nearly as interconnected and interdependent in the 1910s. And urban density was far lower as well. What's happening in China alone is already disrupting global supply chains, and the virus has already spread to other third world manufacturing economies like Vietnam, which shut down all schools. In many ways this is a perfect storm.

dekhn 7y ago

Basically every household should already have, regardless of the origin of the disaster: 1 month of clean drinking water or reliable (tested) filtration devices and a impure water source (local streams likely to have various bacteria that will make you sick). 1 month of food that requires minimum water and fuel to cook (quick oats > slow cook oats). Enough fuel to cook that food (most of your food should not require cooking). A reliable camping stove that you have already tested. Plenty of ways to start a fire/stove. Warm clothes, blankets, med kit, sleeping bags. Soap. I've lived for 30 days in alaska on a glacier with only what I could carry in a large pack; water and fuel were the largest by weight, sleeping bag/tent/clothes were the largest by volume. By the end, campers had devolved into small groups of people who didn't share food.

Havoc 7y ago
>I've lived for 30 days in alaska on a glacier > devolved into small groups of people who didn't share food. In what context did this happen? Doesn't sound like a fun camping trip
- dekhn 7y ago
  I was on a course from something like the Wilderness Education Association- basically training to be a "wilderness leader" (but the instructors were pretty clueless). Some things I learned: While in most places if it rains you will dry out after a few days, but it's so humid in alaska the only way to dry clothes is to wear them at night in a wet sleeping bag (it dries by morning). Glacier runoff rivers are no joke, we almost lost an instructor and a student while crossing. If you don't manage your food properly, you will end up subsisting on things like cake mix(!) for the last few days. When supplies get low, people act different (greedy). There's a saying: "civilization is only three meals away from anarchy", that only made sense to me after day 28.
  - Havoc 7y ago
    Cool. Thanks for answering
7y ago

James_Henry 7y ago

Here are some actual documents on preparing for an influenza pandemic that the CDC is repurposing to prepare people for the coronavirus because of the similarity to the spread of the flu. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/pandemic-preparedness-resources.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/pandemic-prepa... States will have their own influenza preparedness plans that they will probably be following for the coronavirus as well. One helpful thing that they advise governors to advise individuals to do is to store up food and enough (but not more than enough) medications. https://www.nga.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Pandemic-Influenza-Primer.pdf https://www.nga.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Pandemic-Infl... One thing to note is that a lot of the slowing down of disease spreading is going to be from the voluntary efforts of individuals. We should prepare ourselves and help prepare people around us to know what's up and what to do if you think you may be sick.

numakerg 7y ago
What are the chances that residential electricity, gas or water get shut off as a result of an outbreak in North America? I live in a mid-sized town and we have enough dry beans and cereals to last a few months, but without hot water it would be a week at most.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- James_Henry 7y ago
  I don't know the chances but some of the linked documents go over how the governments should work to minimize service disruptions like these. Of course, it will depend on the specifics of where you live, but I would guess that there are very few issues in this regard through the country.
- jerf 7y ago
  I don't know more than anybody else. All I can tell you is that I'm not personally expecting that to happen, or at least, no more so than usual. One of the reasons for that is that there's actually multiple phases to this sort of thing. Quarantine is a response you use when trying to completely squash it early, but as the virus escapes quarantine, you go to a different strategy of trying to reduce the virus' effective r0, involving preventing mass gatherings, encouraging self-quarantine, encouraging working from home, etc. Some quarantines may still be part of the strategy, but it's not the only arrow in the quiver. It's not a matter of choosing between "quarantine everybody completely for weeks" or "everybody dies". Broadly speaking, it's reasonable to expect a very high chance that the infrastructure industry will successfully keep transmission within itself low enough that it won't actually catastrophically fail. It's a high priority and everybody knows it. A lot of the work involved in this sort of infrastructure doesn't involve being up close and personal with people. You might want to try to avoid having a plumbing problem in your residence or something, though. I live in an area prone to power outages (a 4 day outage less than a year ago, although that was an outlier), and I haven't been buffing up my "power outage" supplies. I do have them. But I've been filling up my freezer in stages instead for this. To be honest, I don't even expect the stores to completely fail, though there may be a run on them at the beginning. But the stores will be one of the biggest remaining hubs there will be, by necessity. If I can just pre-buy some stuff I would have bought anyhow and avoid having to go there at all during the containment period, it seems worth it. The extra package of toilet paper from Costco isn't going to go bad in the meantime. Let me give my generic "preparation" spiel here: Basic prep is a good idea anyhow. Society is far more resilient against a wide variety of threats when more people can last a week or two of infrastructure outage. Being prepped is the socially responsible thing to do. If this is what it takes for you to set up a bit of prep, ok, fine. It's not panic, it's being responsible. Shoot for not having to go to the grocery store for 2-3 weeks, probably. Buy things you'll use anyhow, which means you're just forward-loading some spending you'd have done anyhow. Don't forget to think beyond food; toilet paper, tissues, medicine, shampoo, soap, etc. (Fortunately most of this stuff keeps even better than food.) No need to panic. But it is a good idea to be ready, because even if COVID-19 never hits your area, someday it's going to be something. And let me emphasize again, I don't know more than anybody else; I'm just saying where I personally have put some skin in the game.

claudeganon 7y ago

The tens of millions of people in the US who are underinsured, lack sick leave, or can’t afford to miss work would seem to almost guarantee a disaster if this hits with force, no? 27% of people in the US can’t even afford a $400 emergency expense, which is (generously) the cost of maybe one visit to verify illness or moderate symptoms.

jerf 7y ago
"The tens of millions of people in the US who are underinsured, lack sick leave, or can’t afford to miss work would seem to almost guarantee a disaster if this hits with force, no?" Well, I mean, yeah. Have you been watching the stock market in the past few days? Everybody's got a pretty clear view of this. But "death" has that certain finality about it. A quarantine can pass in a way that death doesn't. Even a bad one.
- claudeganon 7y ago
  Apologies, I’m not following what you’re saying with regard to death vs. quarantine.
  - avtar 7y ago
    I think they're stating a preference for a quarantine, even with all its potential impacts, since not having one could result in more deaths. Quarantines being transient in nature vs death being permanent.
    - claudeganon 7y ago
      Oh of course. I just think effective quarantines or delays of imposing them because of the underlying tenuousness of the American economy poses numerous risks. Short-sightedness is kind of a hallmark of American culture.
sky_rw 7y ago
Insurance is irrelevant if there aren't enough hospital beds or medical staff/facilities to handle a widespread pandemic. I think you're focusing on the wrong issue, likely based on the political nature of the current healthcare debate. The real guarantees of a disaster are: Do businesses have enough cashflow to handle lack of just in time inventory from China if their shelves run dry? Do millions of people in the US have enough cashflow to handle rent payments if jobs are shut down due to quarantine and they don't get hourly wages? Do we have enough pharmaceuticals on hand to overcome the supply dip, given that 80% of our drugs are manufactured in the Wuhan area? IMO health insurance rates are the least of our problems.

joshstrange 7y ago

Not sure if this is the right place but what would be best for one stock up on ahead of time? I'm thinking non-perishables or stuff with a high shelf life but what else should you consider buying?

Diederich 7y ago
Anything you need on a daily/weekly basis. We stock up on very low glycemic index protein bars and water. Lots of bottled water.
- jcranmer 7y ago
  Bottled water isn't necessary; this isn't a situation where mother nature will render infrastructure damaged-to-nonexistent.
  - davidw 7y ago
    I mean, having a bit doesn't hurt, but I'm not seeing this as a situation where you need to go a month with no public water. But I don't really know anything about it - maybe I'm wrong.
- davidw 7y ago
  Are problems with water supplies foreseen? This isn't some natural disaster where infrastructure is ruined, just people can't go out much.
  - digsy 7y ago
    Water plants need people to run them. And power, which means power plants need people (or fuel trucks to refuel their generators if the power goes out). If those people are sick, the water may stop flowing.
chipuni 7y ago
Food that you like. Medicines. Imagine that you'll be stuck in your home for three weeks. What would you need?

ilamont 7y ago

So I see this information from the CDC and news outlets, but the head of the World Health Organization seems to be saying something quite different: “For the moment, we are not witnessing the uncontained global spread of this virus, and we are not witnessing large-scale severe disease or death.” https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/02/who-tries-to-calm-talk-of-pandemic-says-the-word-does-not-fit-the-facts/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/02/who-tries-to-calm-ta...

allovernow 7y ago
The WHO is still using Chinese figures without any sort of disclaimer. The director of the WHO has been accused by the new York times of covering up multiple epidemics in how home country[1]. Hopefully this virus will upend the blind Faith that people recently have come to put into international establishments. 1. https://cloverchronicle.com/2020/01/30/world-health-organization-director-general-was-accused-of-covering-up-epidemics-in-2017/ https://cloverchronicle.com/2020/01/30/world-health-organiza...
- hodgesrm 7y ago
  Just checking but what concrete alternatives would you recommend to international organizations, imperfect though they may be?
  - sky_rw 7y ago
    I would personally prefer to see a NATO based combination of the USA and EU CDC (does something like this exist?). The problem with these global organizations like the WHO and the UN is that they receive large funding from competing ideologies and interests. They end up rewarding beurocracies and politically motivated leaders. The CDC seems to be much less politically influenced and focused on their mission.
  - allovernow 7y ago
    Personal reliance. Empowering people to take protective steps at their own discretion. If you encouraged your population to, say, keep a small stockpile of rice and beans on hand (not expensive) store overruns wouldn't be such a problem during times of panic. But this would require a radical cultural shift outside of urban areas. And unfortunately individualism I think has become a bit of a slur in many circles, a manifestation of the two party split among collectivism (leftist) and individualism (rightist).

twostorytower 7y ago

I'm glad some people are starting to take this more seriously. We're still at least a few weeks away from a shift in mentality in the US. Right now, it's general apathy. Next, it'll be alert and preparedness. Last, it will be panic. I don't think it will reach chaos, but you certainly don't want to be at Costco in a few weeks. There's no downside in being prepared - worst case scenario you slowly consume the perishables or donate them. In related news, Zoom's stock is surging. I wonder if Slack's stock will eventually have a similar boom.

trianglem 7y ago
What does Zoom and Slack have to do with this?
- huanwin 7y ago
  I assume that they're commonly used by remote workers/teams.
- caseysoftware 7y ago
  In simplest terms, tools that allow you to be remote (aka stay home) and still be mostly effective are immensely valuable.
- kradeelav 7y ago
  Remote working is most likely going to get popular as a way to limit spread of the virus.
- Nannooskeeska 7y ago
  I'm assuming it's the increase in people working remotely, thus having to use tools like Zoom and Slack to communicate more effectively with their teams.
rayhendricks 7y ago
Well Costco has been selling the emergency food supplies, at least out on the Olympic peninsula. Of course I’m sure some people will capitalize off the panic, I’d be tempted to dump 50k into VTSAX and head for the hills too.

kwindla 7y ago

A good COVID-19 preparedness guide that is regularly updated and aimed at the general population: https://theprepared.com/wuhan-coronavirus/ https://theprepared.com/wuhan-coronavirus/

mehrdadn 7y ago

Anyone know if surviving with this coronavirus results in immunity to it afterward?

techopoly 7y ago
According to my understanding, you will possibly not gain immunity after your first infection.
searine 7y ago
You develop antibodies to the virus. However if that virus mutates seasonally (like influenza does for example) a different strain may still infect you at a later date. Thus far that doesn't seem to be the case but who knows what will happen in the future.
DyslexicAtheist 7y ago
surviving it might not be much fun either depending on the severity of the case. survivors have a 45% risk of pulmonary fibrosis (onset within 3-6 months after initial infection), then there is testicular damage in men, among others, see https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22412112 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22412112
- y-c-o-m-b 7y ago
  > survivors have a 45% risk of pulmonary fibrosis I'm not seeing this in the link you posted ( https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.18.20024539v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.18.20024539v... ) A quick online search isn't yielding anything substantial on that either. EDIT: N/M found it, but they're saying it's a possibility due to observations found during SARS: > Gaohong Sheng et al. [20] have shown that viral infection can increase the risk of pulmonary fibrosis.Xie et al. [21] found that 45% of patients showed signs of pulmonary fibrosis within one month after being infected with SARS-CoV.Hui et al. [22] found that 36% and 30% of patients infected with SARS-CoV developed pulmonary fibrosis at 3 and 6 months after infection, respectively.Therefore, we believe that pulmonary fibrosis will become one of the serious complications in patients with 2019-nCoV infection.How to prevent and reduce the occurrence of pulmonary fibrosis in patients with 2019-nCoV infection is an urgent problem for medical workers in the treatment of 2019-nCoV.

ausbah 7y ago

as a college student, what would be the best foods other than ramen, beans, and rice to be stocking up on?

adventured 7y ago
Not food, however buy some cheap cases of bottled water. Usually at places like Kroger or Walmart you can find generic bottled water for ~$2.50-$3.25 for a 24 or 32 pack case. In theory the water supply should be fine, but, clean water is one thing you can die without fairly quickly (compared to food), and it's very inexpensive in non-panic times. Buy two or three cases of water and put them to the side. If everything goes fine, you can drink them regardless. If everything goes very badly, you will be thankful to have the supplies.

whb07 7y ago

Know what’s worse than this virus? Panic. This shit is no deadlier than the regular flu. If you’re not 80+ or have a bad health you’re fine. They need to fire these officials.

0xffff2 7y ago
a) AFAICT we don't have enough data to reliably say how deadly it is yet. b) Despite that, what data we do have suggests that it's at least quite a bit deadlier, we're just waiting to see how much.
notabee 7y ago
Even the rate in younger people, such as those in their 20s, is higher than flu at 0.2%. The rate for flu in the 18-49 age range averaged about 0.001%[1] It's not just the flu. Please don't assert that without checking the numbers. 1. https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/179/2/156/123327 https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/179/2/156/123327
- whb07 7y ago
  I'll assert that panic and fear is worse than this disease. I'll also assert that the tens of thousands that are surmised to have the virus are largely unreported therefore this disease is vastly overplayed.