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Tesla teardown finds electronics 6 years ahead of Toyota and VW
- notlukesky 7y agoSoftware with a battery pack (and no headache of a drivetrain). Luckily for Tesla, most of the other car companies disdain software engineering and see it beneath them and mechanical engineering. My friend had sold his software company to BMW in 2008 and they didn’t even ask him to join BMW. Even more shocking they used the same software for over ten years with NO upgrades and updates.
- ChuckNorris89 7y agoWhich company is that?
- ThePowerOfFuet 7y agoGood luck with that.
- rurban 7y agoYou are misleaded. VW sees itself as mainly software company now. They don't do engines nor drivetrains, but they do heavy SW. This way they think they can control the technicians.
- weregiraffe 7y ago> VW sees itself as mainly software company now. Emission-cheating software?
- rurban 7y agoYou are forgotting that the emission cheating SW came from Bosch and was implemented and distributed by Bosch. No, really, VW sees itself as mainly SW company. Told directly from one of its outsourced development houses.
- lisk1 7y agoI'm perplexed by this article what so special about tesla hardware except some custom ASICs , few days ago there was article disusing the software side of Tesla cars didnt took traction on HN , its just Ubuntu based linux with fail save boot feature, a bunch of shell scripts and QT based user interface. The interesting questions is, is it viable someone to make fully open source linux distro for tesla cars and how legal is it to install alternative software for Tesla cars , just like a PC, customer buys the hardware but have a choice to install what ever software he wants.
- Shivetya 7y agoWhat stands out from this article for me; I own a model 3; is that they are suggesting that suppliers may hold back some manufacturers who do not wish to damage their relationship with those suppliers by wholesale changing up how cars are done. one area they suffer not highlighted is that each supplier maintains its own code base and while I bet they are obligated to share that with the automobile manufacturer it is still a separate team that does not integrate with other suppliers, all this meaning that since Tesla codes all their own ECU and everything feeds up they have a much easier time adapting to new tech and also fixing issues as they come along OTA alone is a major headache for any traditional manufacturer to implement because they don't make all the electronics so they have to rely on the suppliers coming on board. Worse they also have to convince the dealer network this is a good change because it will take work from them. BMW just recently demonstrated their ability to OTA with some improvements sent up which allow customization of non driving related functions. We know that Audi supports limited OTA for eTron and the Chevrolet Bolt while it has the ability no one seems to report it being use. for the most part the article is a bit too fanboi for me, after all Tesla riding this edge is just as likely to have issues with hardware that does not stand up to the abuse an automobile can give it
- honestoHeminway 7y agoThere are embeded standards? https://www.autosar.org/ https://www.autosar.org/
- imtringued 7y agoI think the unwillingness of ICE companies to get involved in the production of batteries is the biggest problem. Right now everyone is worrying that batteries will become a commodity market soon and all the investments in building a battery factory will become worthless. However, the reality is that existing car manufacturers get left behind without access to batteries. Tesla is building Gigafactories everywhere and doesn't suffer from this major problem.
- jaclaz 7y agoThe doubt is whether stopping reading the article at: >It could end the auto industry supply chain as we know it. or just on pargraph later at: >One stunned engineer from a major Japanese automaker examined the computer and declared, "We cannot do it."
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- erikpukinskis 7y agoCare to share what about those sentences caused you to lose focus?
- jaclaz 7y agoSure, no problem. The first sentence is apodictical and catastrophic. The second one is meaningless and sensationalistic. No need to read further an article that is clearly a "plug" and that - besides and as per comments here on HN - is also factually inaccurate.
- ciconia 7y agoI'd really like to see a simple EV for a change. No screens, no AI, no Autopilot, just a 5-seat vehicle with a reasonable range (400+ km) and AC.
- maxsilver 7y agoSo, a Chevy Bolt? It does have an infotainment screen, but otherwise: no AI, no Autopilot, 5 seat vehicle, Air Conditioning, and a 416km range
- thebruce87m 7y agoIf they made them for the UK I’d have one already.
- jazzyjackson 7y agoI drive a plug in Prius -- it has an EV range of 40 km and a gas range of 800 km, I enjoy having a silent EV most of my in town driving, but if I want to do a day trip with 6 hours of driving in a day I don't have to plan where I'm going to park it. It's still pretty computerized of course, lane keep assist and radar cruise control. I also have wanted an EV truck that's more old fashioned -- it's not like you need ASICs and GPUs to move charge between wheels and a battery. For getting something that's built to last and won't make decisions for you I would check out Bollinger -- I read somewhere they were keeping it as much of a self-service architecture as possible to appease customers who need to maintain the vehicle 'in the field' From their website: "the Bollinger B1 might well be the last truck you’ll ever need to buy" https://bollingermotors.com/ https://bollingermotors.com/
- Kirby64 7y agoUnless you want a box that costs way too much money, the Bollinger B1 just seems silly. It's the Hummer H1 of EVs... in fact it's so heavy it legally isn't mandated to have airbags. If that old-school minimalist aesthetic really appeals to you, more power to you... but it definitely doesn't seem to be meant for the majority of folks.
- jupake 7y agoTesla fans regualrly speak about how the company doesnt advertise at all. After articles like this, I remain unconvinced.
- erikpukinskis 7y agoBy definition, advertising is paid for. You’re thinking of PR, which by definition is unpaid.
- rcMgD2BwE72F 7y ago>One stunned engineer from a major Japanese automaker examined the computer and declared, "We cannot do it." Ouch
- kozak 7y agoI'd read that as "cannot do this in a sensible timeframe while still following Automotive SPICE".
- radu_floricica 7y agoRead further. It roughly translates to "we can't do it because we already invested in a different supply chain strategy that comes with considerable advantages". Latecomer advantages.
- JohnJamesRambo 7y agoThis is the industry that took years to adopt the CD player, it’s not that hard to be technologically ahead of them. Whether that actually translates into more sales of cars is a different question.
- ghaff 7y agoAssuming that was the case, it wouldn't surprise me that might have something to do with the reliability of early CDs across a wide range of temperature conditions and use given vibrations, potholes, etc.
- millzlane 7y agoYea ESP didn't come about until the 90's https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electronic_skip_protection https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electronic_skip_protection
- flukus 7y agoEven then it could be horrible on bad roads where it doesn't get a chance to skip ahead. It's also a lot harder to change a CD while you're driving than a tape. And until CD burners were around you couldn't do mixed tapes for road trips on CDs.
- erikpukinskis 7y agoWe had analog skip protection that worked pretty well... shock absorbing trays you would mount your discman on.
- h2odragon 7y agoThe aftermarket filled the hole quickly and with the full range of quality available. Many people put the early "discman" portable players on the dash and used FM modulators to get that signal to the car radio. When "factory CD" units started to appear they were multiples of the price of aftermarket units, and initially of such low quality initially that the FM modulators sounded better. The disc handling on some of the early units was ludicrous, too: "just get my CD out please" was common. * edit: also people used "CD to cassette adapters" which are worth mentioning because of how ingenious they are. Its a headphone plug on one end and a cassette shell on the other, the headphones drive coils that excite the tape player's read head. Source: installed car audio as a sideline in the late 80s early 90s.
- swiley 7y ago6 years ahead electronics here means AI ASICs. I thought that was weird, I know Toyota cars have radar and I’m not sure about Teslas. IMO as an armchair observer the sensor array is far more interesting than any of this. Personally, if I were to buy another car (and hopefully I don’t have to any time soon) I’d want the processing electronics to be off the shelf not weird custom stuff that’s going to have all kinds of corporate social crap attached to it. Edit: to make it clear, I’m not saying one manufacturer is better than the other. I’m upset about this because it’s (IMO) more of a marketing thing (and maybe a way to have some leverage over 3rd party repair shops) and not really a technical improvement. There’s been a lot of weird social stuff masquerading as technological advancements everywhere. these have resulted in some small groups of people abusing computers to manipulate everyone else and once you recognize that pattern you get very cynical with articles like op.
- rusticpenn 7y agoautomotive electronics has a different set of requirements from normal electronics. Most ecus are designed by Bosch, Delphi or some big company in the field.
- tyfon 7y agoTesla has radar in their cars, at least in my X. I think I read somewhere that the cheapest model 3 does not have it but I can't confirm that.
- bengale 7y agoTight control of the hardware and software reminds me of Apple.
- almost_usual 7y agoWith Larry Ellison on the board it reminds me of Oracle.
- bengale 7y agoAre some of the board seats allocated by people trying to counterbalance Elon though?
- rcMgD2BwE72F 7y agoWith red on the logo, it reminds me of Coca-Cola.
- ginko 7y agoWait, Ellison is on the board of Tesla? That's one good reason to hate the company I guess.
- almost_usual 7y agoYes, he’s also donating millions of dollars to a well known climate change denier. https://ir.tesla.com/board-directors/larry-ellison https://ir.tesla.com/board-directors/larry-ellison https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-02-15/larry-ellison-trump https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-02-15/larry-elli...
- k__ 7y agoCompanies like that are basically work creation schemes.
- systemtest 7y agoEveryone is good at something. Tesla is good at electronics, Toyota is good at manufacturing and quality control. A collaboration would be beneficial for both.
- sjwright 7y agoA Toyota-Tesla collaboration would never happen, except that it did. We live in a truly strange world. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_RAV4_EV#Second_generation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_RAV4_EV#Second_generati...
- iamphilrae 7y agoMy brand new Toyota C-HR comes with an entertainment screen that is not Retina display. Technology that has been out for half a decade and is found in the dirt cheapest of smart phones. It honestly doesn’t surprise me that the rest of their tech is so far behind.
- kevin_thibedeau 7y agoAutomotive grade components have to survive greater temperature extremes and vibration for 10+ years. Disposable consumer products don't operate in the same sphere. Tesla has been burned by using consumer grade screens.
- iamphilrae 7y agoSeriously... it’s just some extra pixels?! The have picked cheap components, plain and simple.
- hprotagonist 7y agothink again. https://www.thedrive.com/tech/27989/teslas-screen-saga-shows-why-automotive-grade-matters https://www.thedrive.com/tech/27989/teslas-screen-saga-shows...
- magicalhippo 7y agoI tried looking for automotive grade LCDs with high DPI. Couldn't find all that much, but came across this press release from Mitsubishi[1], indicating they released something that starts to approach retina only last summer. As mentioned, in a car you really want automotive grade components, at least due to the heat and vibration it needs to sustain. [1]: https://www.mitsubishielectric.com/news/2019/0423-b.html https://www.mitsubishielectric.com/news/2019/0423-b.html
- radu_floricica 7y agoThis used to be a good excuse, but somehow it starts to ring hollow. Ipads are as near indestructible as any hardware I've seen - drop'em, scratch'em, give'em to toddlers to play with. By comparison a car screen kinda lives a sheltered life.
- blacklion 7y ago> The computer powers the cars' self-driving capabilities as well as their advanced in-car "infotainment" system. Now I'm scared. I hope it is mistake of Nikkei and these two subsystems doesn't have anything in common, including power supplies.
- Neil44 7y agoYep to put it a different way they seem to be saying that having Spotify running on the same ECU as the driving AI is what puts them 6 years ahead.
- DarmokJalad1701 7y agoThis is absolutely false. The new FSD chip is specifically made for Neural net inference tasks. It has a custom instruction set with ~18 instructions. Even before that, they used an NVIDIA Drive PX unit for NN inference. The in-car entertainment system is run on a separate Intel Atom based computer. The ECU controlling the car itself is completely separate from both of these. You can reboot the main display of the car while driving on Autopilot and it will still perform the same.
- DarmokJalad1701 7y agoThey are wrong. The ECU driving the car is separate from the computer running neural net inference (either the NVIDIA drive PX or their newer FSD computer), which is in turn separate from the display or "MCU" which controls the entertainment system which is based on an Intel Atom CPU.
- tyfon 7y agoNo, the "self driving computer" is independent and it actually runs itself in parallel for redundancy and error checking. The infotainment system runs a custom linux distribution running on ARM (MCU1) or intel atom (MCU2). They talk to each other but they are independent.
- blacklion 7y agoQuestion is, how do they talk? For example, if they have shared memory on same bus, it is BAAAAAD.
- soygul 7y agoArticle praises Tesla's custom AI chip. It is something many criticize as a waste of development resources, while they could have used off-the-shelf components for the same task. Tesla's real advantage is their battery production. No one else can compete with them on battery price or production volume at a similar quality: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/10/teslas-competitors-play-catch-up-on-electric-batteries.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/10/teslas-competitors-play-catc...
- wil421 7y agoBattery production seems like a problem that can be solved right now with money. VW and Toyota could partner with a 3rd party (like Tesla and Panasonic) and build factories. Custom silicon seems like a much harder problem for VM/Toyota. Unless a supplier can build something for them I don’t see either company innovating like Tesla. Basically Tesla’s secret sauce is the Tech not the EV components.
- samirm 7y agoBoth problems could be solved with money, but according to the article it seems the giants are refusing to move due to historical relationships (which tesla does not have).
- lyime 7y agoIt’s both. Continued improvements to battery tech will bring the costs down for Tesla which is important for them to do if they want to succeed. Custom hardware and software will also give them cost advantage and help them in the long term.
- cma 7y ago> Unless a supplier can build something for them I don’t see either company innovating like Tesla. Mobileye?
- NotSammyHagar 7y agotesla used mobileye early, then intel bought mobileye so t doesn't use them anymore
- onetimemanytime 7y agoI am reading this on my 8 year old computer
- tyingq 7y agoI thought there was, though, previous discussion of Tesla using non-automotive grade electronics in places. Using stuff that's rated for the heat, moisture, vibration, etc, implies lag time as opposed to "latest/greatest".
- CrazyStat 7y agoThe big screen is the common example of this, as they couldn't source an automative-grade screen that big. It's suffered several issues due to heat and UV exposure.
- xedeon 7y agoThe screen is automotive grade. The yellow discoloration has been traced back to a supplier changing the adhesive chemistry on the LCD panel to save cost. https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/yellow-borders-on-main-screen-a-new-fix.137529/page-2 https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/yellow-borders-on-ma... https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/mcu-touch-screen-yellow-border-dealer-update https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/mcu-touch-screen-yello...
- CrazyStat 7y agoThe screen is not automotive grade [1]. If the adhesive that holds the screen together is not automotive grade then the whole unit is not automotive grade. [1] https://www.thedrive.com/tech/27989/teslas-screen-saga-shows-why-automotive-grade-matters https://www.thedrive.com/tech/27989/teslas-screen-saga-shows...
- jungturk 7y agoSeems like they made a calculated tradeoff here to sacrifice some reliability in further-toward-the-fringe conditions (extremes of heat & humidity) in order to get some wow factor with the screen.
- threeseed 7y agoThey did make a calculated tradeoff. They also made a calculated decision not to recall the device nor properly replace the screens for those affected. Forums are littered with stories of people who suffer from the yellowing and are forced to live with it.
- bovermyer 7y agoNote that the "we cannot do it" quote is not referring to the technology itself, but rather to the fact that to adopt Tesla's pattern, the legacy auto companies would need to ditch their supply chains. That's not something they can do without pissing off a lot of people.
- James_Henry 7y agoThe answer to this, I would think, would be to have a small part of the company whose soul purpose is to disrupt the larger company. Then Toyota and VW might have built Tesla in house without supply chain worries. When their in-house Tesla-like company proved a success, they could reasonably afford to upend their old supply chain: self-disruption.
- prawn 7y agoThis is often referred to as a "skunkworks" - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skunk_Works https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skunk_Works
- dmix 7y agoIt’s still a big deal to the wider auto industry to have an entire supply chain disrupted. Even if that doesn’t mean much to the end consumer when the big car companies switch to off the shelf computing.
- norswap 7y agoConsidering how much money went into the making of the real Tesla, is that really something these big auto-makers could have afforded?
- bcrosby95 7y agoMost of that money went into things the big auto makers already had rather than anything particularly unique to Tesla.
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- Invictus0 7y agoSeems like these components were authorized at the height of the self driving hype cycle as a way of future proofing the cars--that is, the owner could download a self-driving software update and the hardware would already be ready for it. In retrospect, this looks foolish: doing self driving without a LIDAR is borderline unethical. I wouldn't be surprised if newer models do away with these ASICs until the software is further along.
- ec109685 7y agoHuh? Even without full level 5 self-driving, these chips allow Tesla to control steering and breaking in many situations. Humans don’t have lidar and we are able to navigate the world. If the windows of the car was replaced by a low latency screen, showing exactly what we’d see if we looked out the window, we could drive just fine, so cameras do provide enough data to self drive. You just need a smart processor.
- raxxorrax 7y agoNo, you would lack depth perception. It is possible to drive, but it would probably be significantly more difficult. I have a friend with a dysfunctional eye. He has a drivers license, but really doesn't like driving or catching things out of the air. But while humans can successfully correct for this issue through extended interpretation of perceived images and training, it becomes almost a necessity for a stupid computer. I believe a fast and efficient stereoscopy would make identifying objects much easier. But it isn't neither trivial to implement, nor very performant to my knowledge. A Lidar would be an alternative of course.
- Invictus0 7y agoThe bar is not "being able to navigate the world". The bar is doing so 10x more safely than a human, and currently the human deaths-in-car-crash rate is something like 1.2 per 100 million miles driven [0]. For scale, that is the same distance from the Earth to the sun, and equivalent to 4000 trips around the equator. I understand it is theoretically possible to beat this without a LIDAR but you are seriously understating the difficulty of this task when you say you just need a smart processor. [0]: https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/state-by-state https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/state...
- cozzyd 7y agoIn other words, Tesla teardown finds remote bricking capability 6 years ahead of Toyota and VW. In seriousness, it's no surprise that older vendors will incrementally upgrade their hardware and work with suppliers rather than starting from scratch and obsoleting all suppliers. Likewise, I assume $startup_du_jour has a tech stack "6 years ahead" (whatever that means) of more established players. edit: s/de jure/du jour. Thanks lorenzhs
- lorenzhs 7y agoI agree, the article focuses on the "they built their own AI chip" thing a bit too much for my taste. It also doesn't explain why reducing the number of ECUs would upset supply chains to the degree claimed, there is a lot of other stuff that goes into making a car. Off-topic, but I think you meant "du jour" (of the day) instead of "de jure" (by law) :)
- cozzyd 7y agoI did mean du jour. This is what I get for writing comments before I drink enough coffee :)
- blattimwind 7y ago> https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/https%3A%2F%2Fs3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com%2Fpsh-ex-ftnikkei-3937bb4%2Fimages%2F_aliases%2Farticleimage%2F2%2F6%2F0%2F4%2F24974062-1-eng-GB%2F20200213-TeslaPix-img.png?source=nar-cms https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/htt... Strikes me as a typical low-reliability design. Would be surprised if this unit lasts ten (or even five) years.
- lallysingh 7y agoHow's that less reliable than many parts that can fail independently? Cars don't have much redundancy.
- Causality1 7y agoThey are already breaking. The flash chips are wearing out because teslas obsessively log everything you do.
- SEJeff 7y agoAnd that's been fixed in newer firwmare versions, per the hacker who fixes those in the first place.
- KaiserPro 7y agoThis is grand, apart from the build quality of the mechanics is ~10 years behind. Go to a tesla showroom, Look at the doors of the model three. Note that they don't line up. Look at the paint job, notice that there are bumps and chips, especailly on the edges of the doors. This is on a _demo_ car, stuck in a showroom. these should be perfect. Even a budget Kia has better build quality than this. Its not the isolated parts of a car that makes it good, its the whole package. (yes that works both ways. )
- dagw 7y agoIs this purely an aesthetic thing or is it an actual structural problem that has an appreciable effect on the day to day operation or reliability of the car. Or is your argument more that if they can't fix the 'easy' things then that is an indication of more systemic problems with the integrity of the car
- spectrum1234 7y agoI just checked my garage. It looks fine. Which one of us is lying?
- xxpor 7y agoWhen was the last time you went and looked? Build quality has improved substantially since first Model 3 deliveries.
- xvf22 7y agoJust saw a 2020 top spec model 3 that still has a few misaligned gaps and bunching seals in the doors. The leather around the back where it was punched out is creased. It's a great car, but the for and finish sadly still has a ways to go.
- Retric 7y agoYea, Tesla is selling cars sight unseen which makes minor cosmetic issues a very low priority for them. It says less about build quality than their sales model. Personally I doubt most customers notice or care, but it’s an obvious thing to criticize.
- RaceWon 7y agoSo Toyota and VW are concerned about the other companies, which currently supply their ECU's, having to lay off staff if they (Toyota and VW) switched over to Teslaesque style control modules. REALLY?! I find that laughable on its face.
- ishi 7y agoIt might be related to the fact that Toyota championed "Just-in-time manufacturing" which requires tight control over the supply chain. You have to be able to trust your suppliers to deliver what you need on time and in high quality. So you must cultivate close relations with your suppliers over many years. They almost become your partners. You can't just stop working with one supplier and switch to another on a whim. "Toyota believes in developing mutually beneficial, long-term relationships based on mutual trust with all suppliers. To foster that trust, we pursue close and wide-ranging communication to share our business knowledge to enhance our business relationship." (https://www.toyotauk.com/toyota-in-the-uk/supplier-relations.html https://www.toyotauk.com/toyota-in-the-uk/supplier-relations...)
- tim333 7y agoThey didn't really need to tear down a model 3 to see the HW3 computer, they could have just watched last years Tesla presentation. Also I don't know how they calculate 6 years - Nvidia will probably have something comparable they can buy within a year or so.
- aguyfromnb 7y ago>Nvidia will probably have something comparable they can buy within a year or so. NVIDIA already did, at the time the Tesla chip was publicized: It’s not useful to compare the performance of Tesla’s two-chip Full Self Driving computer against NVIDIA’s single-chip driver assistance system. Tesla’s two-chip FSD computer at 144 TOPs would compare against the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Pegasus computer which runs at 320 TOPS for AI perception, localization and path planning. And more in the pipe... https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2019/04/23/tesla-self-driving/ https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2019/04/23/tesla-self-driving/
- nickik 7y agoTesla didn't do this to do one chip, they did it to have the need knowledge to build a new one every year. And not a generic one but a very specific one to their need.
- LoSboccacc 7y ago> Industry insiders expect such technology to take hold around 2025 at the earliest. there's many interpretations. the most obvious is that industry insiders were wrong about their expectations, since the technology has reached the market this early. the other is that the 6 years estimate is way too generous, given production units exists, and late adoption cycle is usually two years. the third is this is a "my darling tesla" advertisement. somehow I am more inclined to sit between position one and two, especially since the productization of ai chips is already in the works[1], but still. [1] https://www.technologyreview.com/s/613305/this-chip-was-demoed-at-jeff-bezoss-secretive-tech-conference-it-could-be-key-to-the-future/ https://www.technologyreview.com/s/613305/this-chip-was-demo...
- claudeganon 7y agoRealistically though, Tesla will got bought out by one of these larger companies, so they can integrate (while undoubtedly making worse) the underlying tech. Tesla hasn’t show any capacity to deliver quality cars at scale, nor provide service to them, whatever their ambitions. Combined with all their SEC problems, it’s reminiscent of Preston Tucker’s car company: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preston_Tucker https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preston_Tucker
- codeulike 7y agoTesla sold 367,500 cars in 2019 (as of mid-January) Tesla's market capitalization is $93 billion, compared to $50 billion for General Motors and $37 billion for Ford No other car company is going to be buying them out unless they crash very very badly
- claudeganon 7y agoToyota’s market cap is more than twice that of Tesla, around 200 billion, and they sold 10 million cars last year. I do expect Tesla’s is dramatically inflated, I have no idea if Toyota would buy them, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility. If Toyota could successfully integrate all the Tesla stuff into their vehicles, it would also have a greater impact than anything Tesla will likely accomplish on their own.
- SEJeff 7y agoAs of this very moment, the market caps of both are as follows: Toyota: 228.41 Billion Tesla: 144.2 Billion That's time and a half, but not more than twice. I find it stretching credibility to think Toyota could afford to buy a company with such a high market cap knowing the stock would rocket up on any rumor of an acquisition.
- claudeganon 7y agoThat Tesla’s market cap is anywhere close to Toyota’s should give you pause, given the difference in scale and market penetration of the two companies. Look, I’m a firm believer in the “market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent” and especially in our post-2008, QE money printing, Saudi sovereign wealth fund, unmoored-from-reality present. So honestly, who knows how it will all pan out. Maybe we now just live in a hyperreal future where Musk’s marketing shenanigans are materially equivalent to the solid fundamentals and record of a company like Toyota. Could very well be.
- ilikehurdles 7y agoWhile I don't expect the results to be that much different, I feel like Tesla teardown should be compared to a BMW, Audi, or Lexus teardown. The cutting edge electronics stuff is usually tried first on the luxury brands before it trickles down into economy models. A brand like Toyota or VW has to ship at magnitudes greater scale and at much lower price points. Manufacturers have much less breathing room for component failure on a Golf or Corolla, so they choose battle-tested parts or either from prior generations or whatever they've found works well on their luxury brands.
- nickik 7y agoAt least in comparison to the i3 the Tesla was way more advanced. Its all in the Munro teardown, and the i3 was billions of $ investment for BMW.
- ilikehurdles 7y agoI agree! But newer BMWs have some hands-free driving and driverless parking features along with traffic jam and lane keep assist plus a good chunk of interior and drivetrain/suspension tech, things you won't find to that extent in a ~$20k-ish range vehicle. I expect that they're behind Tesla on most electronics, but my complaint was that comparing an economy brand like Toyota or VW with Tesla isn't an apples-to-apples comparison for a lot of reasons.
- archi42 7y agoAbsolutely, scaling is one of the imho two keys here: As per [1], in 2019 Tesla sold 158k Model 3 in the US (pop ~329M). Local news[2] said VW sold 204k Golf in 2019, in Germany (pop ~83M), and they have many more well selling cars on the SAME platform across multiple brands. 2nd: Car tech was traditionally slow moving, which has a lot to do with a strong focus on safety (at least from my experience with automotive customers). [1] http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/tesla/tesla-model-3/ http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/tesla/tesla-model-... [2] https://www.heise.de/autos/artikel/Deutschlands-meistverkaufte-Pkw-2019-4653480.html?view=bildergalerie&bild=10 https://www.heise.de/autos/artikel/Deutschlands-meistverkauf...
- danmg 7y agoIt's easy to get ahead when you're not concerned with lifing and having automotive grade components that will last 20 years.
- pacaro 7y agoIt feels to me like there is a symmetry of arrogance here. Traditional car companies are finding that making an electric car is hard (emphasis on electric) Tesla is finding that making an electric car is hard (emphasis on car)
- emiliobumachar 7y agoInteresting, but why would you think any of them ever thought that making an electric car would be easy?
- pacaro 7y agoGood question, and I don't know that easy/hard is the correct dimension here. They do seem to be been caught off guard by some combination of how quickly the electric car market has taken off, and what is possible to build. There seems to have been a reliance on the argument that people need a range of X and because that isn't achievable the market will be small. I think that complacency and/or conservatism may be the real issues here. It's not entirely dissimilar to the slow response of the American car industry to the rise in quality of Japanese cars. But that also provides a model for how they might (albeit slowly) rise to the challenge
- AtlasBarfed 7y agoMy view of the economics is that most recently Tesla knows how to make a car. The battery pack is still more expensive than an ICE drivetrain, but that is a matter of time. My view of that is based on the rapid construction of the China gigafactory, and the sooner-than-expected Model Y deliveries. The only company with proper prioritization of EV development outside of Tesla is VW. GM would be next, but they still are going too slow and clearly don't have full C-level executive buyin
- threeseed 7y ago> The only company with proper prioritization of EV development outside of Tesla is VW That is simply not true. All of the manufacturers apart from say Toyota have made EV the number one priority for their companies. Mainly because of the impending EU regulations on emissions. Porsche has the best EV car on the market. BMW sacked their CEO because of a lack of EV progress, Mercedes has most of their innovation going into the EQC series. There are stories everywhere on how the companies are rapidly shifting to EV.
- jshowa3 7y agoI fail to see how a custom AI computer will "invalidate the supply chain". It's not like Tesla manufactured the chips and components in house unless I'm not aware that Tesla now has its own PCBA and component factory.
- coob 7y agoDoes anyone know if Tesla are using SiFive[1] for their custom silicon design? [1] https://www.sifive.com https://www.sifive.com
- celerrimus 7y agoBut also is probably 6 years ahead in problems and issues related to bugs in design and software. Ie, recent news about wearing SSD that is causing already and will brick every Tesla model available, problems with updates, etc. Also, security risks have to be considered with such vehicle. It's not that Toyota or VW can't afford in software/hardware research - because they have more than enough resources for this. Those are the biggest car manufacturers in the world. They simply price more reliability. Especially Toyota is good example for that, their models are usually 3-5 years in "gadgets" behind VW group or Korean makers, but their cars offer solid reliability and usually they simply drive for years without much troubles. Another example of how Tesla is ahead: https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a30361800/tesla-model-3-long-term-failure-stranded-while-parked/ https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a30361800/tesla-model-3-lo... >Not only is this the first time we've ever had a long-term car suffer a catastrophic failure while parked, it's also an extraordinarily rare case of any car leaving us stranded, something unacceptable for any new vehicle, particularly one that costs $57,690 and with merely 5286 miles on the odometer. Even our problem-prone Alfa Romeo Giulia Quadrifoglio was at least able to limp to the dealer following each one of its numerous issues.
- moduspol 7y ago> recent news about wearing SSD that is causing already and will brick every Tesla model available Unless you're describing something else, that issue is limited to older Teslas: https://www.tomshardware.com/news/flash-memory-wear-killing-older-teslas-due-to-excessive-data-logging-report https://www.tomshardware.com/news/flash-memory-wear-killing-... > Not only is this the first time we've ever had a long-term car suffer a catastrophic failure while parked Any other car "being parked and then later failing to start" is not newsworthy. It was interesting in this case because it was detected and the owner notified via push notification that it occurred. Obviously it shouldn't have happened, especially since it's a newer car. But it's the push notification that made it newsworthy. "My car wouldn't start and had to be towed to a dealer to get fixed for an incredibly rare issue that happened to me" could be written for any car, and nobody would care.
- nottorp 7y agoIs Tesla still controlled just from one tablet-like surface in the center? Meaning you can't adjust anything while driving?
- 1123581321 7y agoModel 3s have hardware buttons on the steering wheel.
- nottorp 7y agoPlease downmod more: https://www.theverge.com/2020/2/6/21127243/tesla-model-s-autopilot-disabled-remotely-used-car-update https://www.theverge.com/2020/2/6/21127243/tesla-model-s-aut... Looks like we're talking about the same Tesla that disables features remotely on your car. It doesn't even matter who was in the right on that incident, looks like a dangerous car to me. And I did used to envy the US for having it available...
- t0mas88 7y agoThis feels very much like a marketing fluff piece pushed by Tesla PR. Take this gem: "Young companies like Tesla, on the other hand, are not shackled to suppliers and are free to pursue the best technologies available." Try the automated windscreen wipers on any big car brand, they're mostly made by Bosch and they work, even on a 15 year old car. Then Tesla came along with their own approach, guess what, they didn't work for more than a year on any second generation model S because they switched from buying a working module to creating their own in software. After having driven a model S for a while I'm very much a Tesla sceptic. Because I noticed I was accepting a lot of things from them that I would never have from BMW or Audi. When the "this is a cool innovation" feeling goes away, you're looking at a very mediocre car that can't compete in the price range that it's in.
- igrekel 7y agoI agree with you this is mainly a fluff piece and must be taken with a grain of salt. I also agree that Tesla overcomplexifies some aspects of their cars and I would appreciate a simpler efficient design. After all, its the simplicity of an electric drivetrain that appealed to me. That being said, I'm puzzled when you say its mediocre in comparison. My 3 got smashed and I have a Mercedes replacement for a few days during repairs and it really feels like a big, loud and clumsy car with an obnoxious amount of chrome. Maybe its the difference in price range, the 3 completes at a much lower price point.
- t0mas88 7y agoPrices here are incomparable to the US due to tax, but a model S starts at 90k if you accept it being only available in white (nobody does at that price). If you pick any other color, reasonable rims and a "luxury interior" as you would expect on cars in this price range it's 110k to 120k euro. That's more than a full option BMW 5 series or Audi A6 and comparable to a very high-end Audi A8 or BMW 7 series. Not sure about Mercedes, but I guess they gave you an A or B class without much luxury options as a loaner. I've seen those as rental cars as well, not great compared to their higher end cars. That would be a 30-40k kind of car here, the model 3 starts at 64k if you pick anything but white and want long range (not performance), and that's excluding autopilot. So in my opinion they're pricing themselves into a market their cars can't really compete in.
- oftenwrong 7y agoI am a bit skeptical. Remember when Tesla ventured outside of the typical automotive supply chain to obtain large screens in their cars? https://www.thedrive.com/tech/27989/teslas-screen-saga-shows-why-automotive-grade-matters https://www.thedrive.com/tech/27989/teslas-screen-saga-shows...
- yellowapple 7y agoExactly. And unlike this AI module thingamabob, a touchscreen doesn't have the power to fatally slam me into a wall at 70MPH going down the 101. I'd rather wait for the likes of Toyota to do things right with automotive-grade components and automotive-grade programming and automotive-grade testing than trust my life to whatever hackery Tesla wants to brogrammer into its ASICs. The article's probably right about some Japanese engineer saying "I can't do this". Not because that engineer doesn't know how to do it, or because of some relationship with component manufacturers, but because doing so would be ethically questionable at best.
- fnordfnordfnord 7y agoYou'd rather wait for Toyota of all people? Toyota is infamous for the bad quality of their software/firmware. Not that I'd expect much better from other established car makers.
- yellowapple 7y ago> You'd rather wait for Toyota of all people? Even Toyota has a better track record than Tesla here.
- boredishBoi 7y agoAutomotive grade programming is a joke. There have been numerous posts here including one a couple days ago about the auto accelerating Toyota’s and it was pretty clear that the problem was with Toyota’s programming as well as their lack of testing. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10437117 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10437117 Not to mention the numerous ways current automotive manufacturers fail at cyber security. Stuff like OnStar and being able to shut down cars remotely.
- bestnameever 7y agoI think the real meat of this story is down towards the bottom. > The real reason for holding off? Automakers worry that computers like Tesla's will render obsolete the parts supply chains they have cultivated over decades, the engineer said.
- emiliobumachar 7y agoDuplicate discussion with far more comments: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22347806 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22347806
- hansdieter1337 7y agoThose “AI chips” are produced by NVIDIA... (NVIDIA PX2) So, any car manufacturer could get the same in a short amount of time. Src: Working in that field
- vardump 7y agoNot true for Tesla HW3, since April 2019.
- jryan49 7y agoSo all the electronics in the car are more centralized? Doesn't that mean there's only one point of failure now?
- mrtweetyhack 7y agoThey haven't beaten anyone by 6 years when you can't even use that feature.
- erikpukinskis 7y agoThey have if you need to collect 6 years of “fleet scale” data before you can get the feature certified.
- alkonaut 7y agoOh it’s about self driving and computers. When it comes to car electronics I care more about how the parking sensors and power windows will work in 10 years than how many watts of outdated neural processor it has. On an electric car I do care about battery management electronics though. That’s where I thought Tesla had the important edge over the competition.
- gdrift 7y agoMeanwhile, my 2019 Volvo runs windows CE.
- solotronics 7y agoI actually like having discrete control units for different components in cars. Recently I upgraded the suspension control computer in my sports car to a much more advanced aftermarket one that calculates and controls each shock absorber dynamically. This wouldn't be possible with a "monolithic" control unit like the Tesla has.
- marsokod 7y agoThe big question for me is whether they reused it for SpaceX Starlink. The satellites are in low enough orbit that common COTS should work without any issue, and the automotive grade HW is usually well suited in these environment. And they would benefit from volumes.
- jerome-jh 7y agoHum that is "information" for investors, nothing technical, except that oh wait they use an ASIC!!! How great ...