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Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3
- rossdavidh 7y agoWikipedia has a chart of past deliveries, for comparison: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_3#Deliveries https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_3#Deliveries Looks like Model 3 is up about 10% from the previous quarter, which is not like 2018Q2-to-Q3 which nearly doubled, but is still a significant bump up.
- toomuchtodo 7y agoGigafactory 3 in China comes online this month. Manufacturing lines are already validated. I’d expect an increased step up in quarterly deliveries going forward. Also, no more Fremont->China ocean shipping delay. This puts Tesla on track to build and deliver 500k+ vehicles a year next year. This does not include energy storage sales out of GF1 in Nevada.
- new_realist 7y agoTesla has never been able to bring a production line online without a year or so of significant problems.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- rossdavidh 7y ago1) I would absolutely not be surprised if they have delays this time as well, but... 2) most organizations find their first production line(s) more difficult to start up than they expected, even in very different fields like brewing beer. But, the more of them they do, the better they tend to get at it. Although... 3) yeah, they'll be late on this one as well. :)
- omgwtfbyobbq 7y agoTesla's never copied an existing production line either though. The Model S, X, and 3 lines were all novel for Tesla. The Shanghai line should be a copy of the 3 line from Fremont for the most part.
- DeonPenny 7y agoBut each time they get faster. This is hold weight if you have a lot of data points but in tesla case they are really young with lots of room of improvement which they've shown
- HenryKissinger 7y agoYet $TSLA has lost ~5% in after hours trading. Wat.png Edit: Wasn't aware of the 100k expectation.
- dv_dt 7y agoThe broad market was down almost 2% today, and Tesla is a higher alpha stock.
- mandeepj 7y ago"After hours" effect is mostly from the earnings report
- cma 7y agoMost of the move was after hours when this report was released. Tesla was only down .6% during the day, despite the higher alpha and the market being down 2%.
- kpommerenke 7y agoDo you mean that Tesla is a higher beta stock? According to Yahoo Finance, its beta is actually only 0.33. Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/key-statistics?p=TSLA https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/key-statistics?p=TSLA
- dv_dt 7y agoYes beta, and surprising on the actual beta. It seems my assumption was wrong.
- rbf 7y agoI guess 100k deliveries was the magic number investors were hoping for.
- imglorp 7y agoAnd where did they get that number from?
- chrisrogers 7y agoForecasters had expected 99,000, so below targets. Tesla has said they are targeting 400,000 for the year, so Q4 will need to be quite something.
- danhak 7y agoWhich forecasters? Morgan Stanley put out a note just this morning predicting 91,000 deliveries: https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/morgan-stanley-predicts-q3-deliveries-miss-tesla-capitulates-companys-autonomous https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/morgan-stanley-predicts... One of the most prominent TSLA shorts was predicting 82,000: https://mobile.twitter.com/markbspiegel/status/1167484390366240768 https://mobile.twitter.com/markbspiegel/status/1167484390366... Full-year guidance is 360,000 - 400,000. They should have no problem hitting the lower end at this point.
- yreg 7y agoWow, that twitter feed is obnoxious.
- et2o 7y agoSpiegel is remarkably and consistently wrong about everything related to TSLA, yet always full of sound and fury about it. From the aspect of a relatively neutral observer (me, although I like Tesla) he's a remarkable character study. I often read his Twitter in a state of bemused horror. He runs his "long-shirt macro hedge fund" out of his 1 bedroom upper east side apartment but probably manages (significantly) less than 10MM USD, although he stopped releasing figures. I'm fascinated by how someone ends up like him. The absolute insistence in his own ability despite all reasonable evidence to the contrary is something to behold. I have to acknowledge the possibility that his public personality is at least to some extent a performance, perhaps designed to raise his profile among potential investors. But he's so consistently and thoroughly repulsive (see his pinned Twitter non-apology for a since-deleted "joke" involving Epstein, Greta Thunberg, and child rape) among others that I don't think it's all performative.
- dmode 7y agoWow, that Spiegel guy seems to have lost his mind after being wrong about his Tesla prediction for decades
- rpmisms 7y agoCue $TSLAQ talking about the Tesla bubble. Really cool to watch Tesla absolutely kick ass.
- xkjkls 7y agoIs this good though? They didn't meet expectations.
- adventured 7y agoYeah it's still good, just not perfect or ideal. 97,000 was above what several prominent forecasts had. The meet expectations game is de facto Wall Street financial fraud. They very aggressively, very openly use it either direction to manipulate the market as they see fit. It's one of the few direct levers of fraud they have that won't get them thrown into prison. And on the other side, you have companies like Cisco that for a decade had a notorious reputation for beating estimates perfectly, by a penny. Every single time, like magic. Obvious financial gaming.
- xkjkls 7y agoThe FactSet sell-side consensus was 99,000. That’s normally what people look at when they quote “expectations”. And for the most part analysts, I don’t know if you’ve ever met one, are honest people. There can be perverse incentives at times, but calling stock analysts fraudsters isn’t accurate
- daxorid 7y agoTSLAQ is actually quite happy with this number, with the stock down 5% AH. The multiple on this stock has it pegged to be an extreme growth company, but 5% annualized delivery growth with shrinking ASPs is decidedly not a "growth" number. TSLAQ is wrong that it's a fraud and/or insolvent. But they're absolutely right that its valuation is absurd and needs to eventually come down to meet reality.
- danhak 7y ago
- graiz 7y agoThey had a leaked email posted last week that they were pushing for 100K. So 97k is less than was priced into the stock. Not sure why institutional investors don't like the stock and it's so heavily shorted and twitchy. Tesla could use a COO to manage operational expectations and let Elon focus more on engineering in the future. It'll keep his twitter/email free from setting market expectations.
- pcurve 7y agoThe street was expecting much higher than 100k. Down 4& after hour. Currently Tesla's valuation is higher than both BMW and Mercedes. No doubt, they're enjoying rich multiple due to other forward-looking business units, but they're not generating any money. Their car business is what's keeping the light on. On long term, Tesla's car business is uncertain. The first-mover advantage is eroding quickly as legacy mfrs are stepping up. It's an extremely competitive business. And with $45k model flooding the market, the novelty factor of the brand is going to wear off very quickly. Look at the new Porsche Taycan. To me, that's the new Model S. Jung,
- sockgrant 7y agoCan the Taycan compete on price, speed, range, and charging network? AFAIK it loses in all of those categories.
- threeseed 7y agoCan a Tesla compete on brand, design, interior fit, build quality, support, charging speed, repeatability, handing ? AFAIK it loses in all of these categories.
- kipchak 7y agoI don't have any numbers, but on the brand point I'd figure Tesla might be in a stronger position than Porsche in the younger demographics.
- slg 7y agoThat first line after the chart is the big takeaway in my opinion. The backlog of orders increased this quarter which is both good news, since it shows demand is not a problem, and bad news, since Tesla still can't produce cars fast enough.
- danhak 7y agoGood thing they have another factory coming online this quarter :-)
- lgats 7y agoI would be surprised if gigafactory 3 cars are exported from China. From what I understand, most domestically produced, internationally branded vehicles are sold within the county. (Audi, VW, Mercedes all manufacturer cars in China for domestic consumption)
- threeseed 7y agoThere would be import tariffs on cars imported into the US. So the Chinese factory is purely for domestic sales.
- grecy 7y agoI think it's for all of Asia-Pacific - i.e. Australia/NZ/Japan, etc.
- zaroth 7y agoThey absolutely will not be exported from China. They will sell every single TM3 they can make in GF3 in China locally, taking advantage of all the cost savings, tax savings, and incentives along the way. But GF3 is what will push them from 8,500/wk ultimately to above 10,000/wk, and depending on exactly how quickly that ramp happens in Q4 will determine whether they end the year with 360k, or 380k cars sold. They will head into 2020 at or close to an annualized production rate of 500k, which is what Elon predicted back in February. [1] Assuming no further increases at Fremont, this requires GF3 to be producing at a rate of ~2,250/wk. Tesla has stated they expect to be producing between 1,000 - 2,000 cars per week at GF3 by the end of the year, rising to 3,000/wk in 2020. So more likely there are still some gains to be made in Fremont before the end up the year in order to hit 500k annualized. By comparison Fremont was making 2,250/wk roughly 1 year after the first TM3 was produced (July 2017 - July 2018). This goes to show how much faster the production ramp can be the second time around. Unlike the first time when Tesla had never mass produced s vehicle before and was expecting “production hell”. [1] - https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1098080063801585664?s=21 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1098080063801585664?s=21
- samfisher83 7y agoIn the last 4 quarters Tesla has delivered 271,521 model 3s. That would make it about the 12th best selling car in america. That is about as many escapes ford has sold. That is pretty phenomenal.
- r00fus 7y agoWith much higher ASP and margins it truly is something to consider.
- new_realist 7y agoTesla doesn’t calculate margins the same way other manufacturers do. Take with a grain of salt.
- erulabs 7y agoIf you mean GAAP v non-GAAP, almost all manufactures release both numbers as does Tesla. Yes, 19% and 15% are different numbers - they're also both very non-negative numbers. This is posted ad nauseam and is absolutely untrue.
- jsight 7y agoNo, there's a common "short" theory that Tesla somehow reports GAAP gross margins in a way that is radically different from the rest of the industry. I've never seen any evidence that had any merit for this claim.
- Lorenzo45 7y agoEdit: Didn't realize they were including Q4 2018 That's Tesla's total sales worldwide. About 50k of those sales are Model S/X. Their total sales for Model 3 in the US are at 114,500 for the year. Source: https://insideevs.com/news/373812/ev-sales-scorecard-september-2019/ https://insideevs.com/news/373812/ev-sales-scorecard-septemb... Still great numbers but just wanted to be accurate.
- rhacker 7y agoOne day I saw 3 Tesla car carriers parked at the truck stop right next to each other (so about 26 or so Teslas - all model 3s). That was a bit unusual, there is typically one Tesla car carrier per day. This was off the 5 in CA (and at a Casino - lol)
- Keloo 7y agoAm I the only one who thinks the Wall Street is playing dirty? Right before the report they increase the expectations so tesla miss, if they wouldn't increase it that should be a beat, same with eps last quarter. It feels like they force the news headlines to be 'tsla miss'. Or maybe I'm a bit fanatic, please correct me if I'm wrong.
- JumpCrisscross 7y ago> Right before the report they increase the expectations Wasn’t the source of the 100k number Elon himself? Wall Street analysts were estimating below Elon (and the actual numbers). It looks more like investors ignored Wall Street and took Elon at face value again.
- kevstev 7y agoThe way this would work is that people work out a target price based on that estimate, and the price should rise accordingly. In any case, they are only a few percent off, the fact that its a "miss" or a "beat" needs to be taken in accordance with magnitude. You are onto something though that a "beat" or a "miss," ever so slight, is generally followed by an increase or drop that tends to be excessive, but this tends to revert within a few days. Some stock pickers like to zero in on stocks that "beat by a penny" (per share) because that is often evidence of some kind of accounting shenanigans to just get over the line. I don't follow Tesla stock much, but it looks like there was a significant bump in mid September, perhaps on some of these earnings forecasts being updated, and now the price is just falling back in line with reality.
- threeseed 7y agoMusk said 100k. https://electrek.co/2019/09/26/tesladelivering-record-cars-quarter-elon-musk-leak-email/ https://electrek.co/2019/09/26/tesladelivering-record-cars-q...
- jcfrei 7y agoWhat's the incentive for Wall Street "to play dirty"? Analysts at investment banks need to retain good relationships with the CEOs of the companies (they are not allowed to disclose any market relevant non public information but it still helps tremendously with their work) as well as the investors (by making good forecasts and retaining them as clients).
- lxe 7y agoThe investors still don't like this.
- caconym_ 7y agoI've practically stopped hearing about Tesla in the news, which must mean they're doing great. Great job, Tesla folks!
- skizm 7y agoI assume someone took away Musk's twitter privileges?
- Derek_MK 7y agoYeah, the SEC did. After the contempt hearing, they had to renegotiate what constitutes "material" information as a part of their settlement, and that was essentially Musk/Tesla's wake-up call of "Oh, we only just BARELY got out of that mess". So as a result, they've actually been following what the original spirit of the settlement was meant to enforce. Of course, we're still seeing issues where Musk is getting sued for threatening workers on Twitter for unionizing, but that's a slightly different issue than lying about production predictions.
- whamlastxmas 7y agoHow do you know he was lying instead of just, you know, wrong?
- mcguire 7y agoWhich would be worse for Tesla?
- whamlastxmas 7y agoProjections are not concrete numbers. It's normal for projections to not be exactly what reality turns out to be.
- threeseed 7y agoActually they aren't doing so great. Everything has changed. Before last year it was basically just Tesla and a few token cars e.g. Leaf in the electric vehicle space. Now every car company is jumping in and any detractors e.g. BMW CEO are being swiftly moved on. And so Tesla is now competing against the most highly capitalised, profitable and experienced companies in the world. Porsche Taycan is based on every review the best EV car money can buy. VW has the ID.3/ID.4 coming out shortly which look seriously good and they have plans for 70 models to be released in the coming decade. You have startups like Rivian which are attracting significant outside funding and disrupting segments. And at the cheaper price points you have dozens of Chinese manufacturers entering the fray. Tesla is about to have the fight of their life and all while they are losing hundreds of millions each quarter.
- paulcole 7y agoCan’t wait to find out what easily justifiable voodoo they used to fudge the numbers this time.
- lammasass 7y agoGerman Carmakers Hate This Trick: Electric Vehicles That Work. Hopefully the eu wakes up and removes barriers for us good, so more europeans can buy teslas.
- mlpinit 7y agoTesla fan here but I have to point out that this headline seems very favorable. Other headlines indicate that despite the new record, the expected deliveries count was 99k. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-stock-falls-after-company-misses-third-quarter-delivery-expectations-2019-10-02 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-stock-falls-after-co...
- rcMgD2BwE72F 7y agoThat market "expectation" was increased to 99K just this week, after the email from Musk was leaked with a mention of 100K deliveries. Don't trust these market "targets": these are mostly published and (silently) changed to pleased some analyst's clients and make the SP price to move in a preferred direction.
- alistproducer2 7y agoGood old zerohedge never misses an opportunity to shit on Tesla [0]. Question for Tesla owners: how is the reliability? I'd love to get unto an electric if only to never have to change my oil again but im curious as to what kind of maintenance requirements these cars have. [0] : https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/tesla-stock-tumbles-after-disappointing-q3-deliveries https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/tesla-stock-tumbles-aft...
- InTheArena 7y agoNo problems with mine so far. No maintainence of any sort so far (12k miles) and the car is unquestionably better (faster, more features, better handling) then when I bought it a year ago. That’s what the anti-Tesla crowd fails to understand.
- FullyFunctional 7y agoAmazing, truly, but ... don't get the early version of a new model. I got one of the very early (RWD, 2012) Model S. It was awesome, but it had a far amount of birthing problems and thankfully I live close enough to the service center. However, I really wanted AWD so I swapped it out in 2014 and I haven't had almost no problems with it since. Compared to the (notoriously reliable) Subaru Impreza WRX I drove for 10 years prior to that, there are no regular oil changes, etc. I do spend more on tires now :(