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America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys
- isomorphic 7y agoThe article is paywalled. outline.com and archive.org do not seem to work; Google's cache returns 404. Are there any other such sites that work?
- pwg 7y agoIt is only paywalled if you let your browser run the javascript served from the site. Blocking all the JS with NoScript results in being able to read the article with no paywall.
- siberianbear 7y agoIn Chrome, you can also do per-site Javascript blocking. Blocking Javascript from [*.]bloomberg.com in preferences will let you read Bloomberg without problems.
- stretchwithme 7y agoThey will get wise to this eventually and start loading their articles using javascript. Business Insider already loads their images with javascript.
- stretchwithme 7y agoWeird. I didn't run into that with Firefox. I do turn off javascript for specific sites using Chrome. That does defeat some paywalls.
- ethbro 7y agoHalf-load + Firefox reader mode
- joe_the_user 7y agoI clear cookies on Chromium and see it. But Bloomberg is getting as annoying NYTimes (where I also clear cookies).
- ForHackernews 7y agoWhere are the insurance companies on all this? Shouldn't it become increasingly more expensive to insure a low-lying property? Are they not including climate risks in their modelling?
- whatshisface 7y agoInsurance policies aren't typically bought 100 years into the future. Often, rates change from year to year.
- baking 7y agoAlso, a 100-year flood is a misnomer. It is a flood that has a 1% chance of happening in the current year. It does not attempt to assess what the probability of a flood will be in 50 or 100 years.
- all2 7y agoFrom what I recall, high risk events are typically separated from policies and require the home owner to carry 'normal' insurance and they can optionally have the high-risk event policy.
- hansthehorse 7y agoYou can buy a separate wind damage rider on your homeowners but if you want flood coverage it's a government run game.
- selimthegrim 7y agoAs memorably recalled by U. Ruckus in the Boondocks episode “Invasion of the Katrinians”
- bhuga 7y agoThe private insurance companies have gotten out of the flood insurance game long ago, leaving the government-backed US flood insurance program as the only game in town. And it's got a lot of bad incentives. A quick summary is in https://www.apnews.com/d6a3852a6dd34a8c90a5a1acc0d0afaf https://www.apnews.com/d6a3852a6dd34a8c90a5a1acc0d0afaf, but that's just scratching the surface.
- olivermarks 7y ago'By the end of the century, 13 million Americans will need to move just because of rising sea levels, at a cost of $1 million each, according to Florida State University demographer Mathew Haeur, who studies climate migration.' I couldn't find any concrete evidence to validate this, it seems more of a prediction? Mr Hauer is a sociologist so this seems a bold claim https://coss.fsu.edu/sociology/mhauer https://coss.fsu.edu/sociology/mhauer 'his research has focused on how migration induced by sea level rise could reshape the U.S. population distribution'
- godzillabrennus 7y agoThe claims I’ve seen start at 8 million and rise from there. Doubt anyone knows till it’s over.
- olivermarks 7y agoClaims and predictions are one thing but where are the facts?
- fourthark 7y agoWhat kind of evidence do you expect? Without time travel.
- eanzenberg 7y agoMany scientists build models to estimates the effects of sea level rise. You can read it online. Tl;dr, its not a big effect. The science has already been politicized. Carry on...
- olivermarks 7y agoAnything. Vague pointers to 'read it online' don't really cut it
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- Simulacra 7y agoI don't think this article presents enough evidence that climate change, or climate in general, is affecting a person's desire to move to a new area. Florida has always had hurricanes, and it will continue to have hurricanes. Our response should not be to say the climate has changed so much its forcing us to leave, but rather what can we do to adapt to the new climate forces?
- electic 7y agoThe issue isn't the hurricanes or the strength that is associated with them, it is the water content. In the past, hurricanes main threat was the wind. With wind, you can mitigate that with stronger building techniques and since the flooding was minimal, it was easy to recover from. The new issue with these hurricanes is that they are bringing significantly more water with them because of global warming. The net result is you are seeing once in 1500 year floods happening every year. It is very hard to recover from those. Especially if you find yourself doing it every year. At some point, you have to move. The net loss is property and economic activity to name a couple.
- propogandist 7y ago>once in 1500 year floods happening every year. Source?
- neals 7y agoThe sea, obviously
- fromthestart 7y ago> The net result is you are seeing once in 1500 year floods happening every year. This is the same kind of cherry picking that denialists have been using for decades. Locally rare events appear frequent if you gather trials from enough localities. The fact is that there has been no increase in storm intensity or frequency over the last 100 years which correlates with greenhouse emissions. There was an increase starting in the 1980s [1] but this is simply not enough data for climate prediction, which normally changes on scales of hundreds of years at the quickest - even if you assume that we are expecting catastrophic temperature increase over the span of a century. Its worrisome that proponent hysteria is driven by the same kind of fallacious reasoning as that of denialist. 1. https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/historical-atlantic-hurricane-and-tropical-storm-records/ https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/historical-atlantic-hurricane-and-...
- todd8 7y agoSLR (sea level rise) is a problem, but this article promotes a kind of alarmist version of SLR, in my admittedly inexpert opinion. SLR has been going on for 20,000 years, and it may be accelerating in the last few decades due to global warming; however, if your property is threatened by a 3mm SLR per year you probably didn’t make a wise purchase in the first place. 2+mm SLR per year has been going on for at least 150 years. See [1]. [1] https://www.flseagrant.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/SLR-Fact-Sheet_dual-column-letterhead_8.2.13_pdf.pdf https://www.flseagrant.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/SLR-Fa...
- H8crilA 7y agoPeople, en masse, rarely react to a problem till it hits them in the face. Florida does get flooded already - Sunny Day Floods, what a beautiful name. Meanwhile real estate prices keep ignoring the issue: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MIXRNSA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MIXRNSA
- ozborn 7y agoYes, you are correct. Of interest though is this study: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3073842 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3073842 which indicates that prices are 7% than they would be otherwise.
- mlinksva 7y agoSensitive to exposure -- 22% discount for properties that will be encroached with 1ft sea level rise, 6% with 6ft encroachment -- and to knowledge eg less discount in regions with less belief in climate change, except for investors who don't seem to be influenced by such local beliefs, substantially greater discounting after 2014 IPCC report (dataset from 2006-2017). Recommended read!
- nealabq 7y agoThe paper you cite is dated 2013 and says SLR has been 3mm/year since the 1990s. It mentions the possibilities of more dramatic rises by 2100 but doesn't go into much detail. If we're talking about a meter of SLR in the next 80 years, thats 12.5mm/year.
- tempsy 7y agoFor some reason I just assumed that Miami Beach real estate was all luxury condos, so I was shocked to see how affordable some condos could actually be in 200-300k range. Not a luxury high rise, but a condo in the heart of Miami Beach nonetheless.
- watertom 7y agoWhy is the government buying these people out? The homeowners weren't forced to purchase these properties, so it's not the government's responsibility to remediate the situation.
- AtlasBarfed 7y agoRich people own beach property. This is a government for the rich.
- refurb 7y agoThat explains why more than half of the US federal budget pays for low income social programs. Because it’s a govt for the rich.
- cure 7y agoCitation needed, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_budget https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_budget does not agree with this statement. I'm assuming you are conveniently forgetting that the 'Social security', 'Medicare' and 'Other spending' slices of mandatory spending go to rich and poor: these programs pay out their benefits to all people regardless of how wealthy they are.
- kevingadd 7y agoNot to mention that social security and medicare funding comes directly out of every paycheck I get. It's dishonest to claim those payments are people leeching off the rich when a huge % of the beneficiaries literally paid for them.
- refurb 7y agoConsidering the taxes scale with income and a low income person would, in no way, cover the costs, Medicare and to an extent Social Security are a wealth transfer to the poor.
- ryansmccoy 7y agoWhy do people buy beach front houses when they know they'll be under water in just a few years? Doesn't make sense to me.
- PKop 7y agoBecause they know it won't be under water in just a few years, and that the climate scare is selective presentation of statistics in service of propaganda to consolidate political power. Interesting view highlighting the selective presentation of statistics: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8455KEDitpU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8455KEDitpU President Obama is one of those who must think the sea level won't rise dramatically for a while, given he recently bought property near the ocean.
- vnchr 7y agoThe article does appear to be chasing a bias. “America’s Great Climate Exodus” is not a present reality, even if it is imagined as an eventuality to some.
- ceejayoz 7y ago> President Obama is one of those who must think the sea level won't rise dramatically for a while, given he recently bought property near the ocean. This is a silly talking point. Obama, like other past presidents, is now fantastically wealthy to the point where a few million dollars in lost property decades from now isn't much to worry about. He wouldn't be fazed by, say, a doubling in food costs, either. That doesn't mean it wouldn't be devastating for lots of Americans if their grocery bills doubled.
- itronitron 7y agoI remember as a child going on vacation to the beaches in Virgina and the Carolinas and always seeing the remains of multiple beach front houses that had been destroyed by waves. The unpredictability of which houses were wiped out made quite an impression.
- eanzenberg 7y agoBecause science says sea level rise is 10ft at the worst case in 100 years? In other words, its alarmism and I don’t appreciate blaming (and compensating) everything because the big boogeyman, climate change.
- PKop 7y agoA counter-argument to climate alarmist statistics, shows use of selective presentation of statistics to portray specific conclusion on climate change: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8455KEDitpU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8455KEDitpU
- devoply 7y agoBillions of birds dead, insect apocalypse, amphibian populations decimated, etc... But yeah people are just being alarmist, it's the end of the world and I feel fine.
- perl4ever 7y agoThe thing is just that people continually present opinions that require numbers in proper context to validate, but seemingly reject the concept that numbers in context are socially appropriate, at all.
- dwaltrip 7y agoWe have enough context for the numbers. Taken in context, the numbers paint a very expensive picture economically (trillions and trillions of dollars), as well as a grave tale of unnecessary suffering for many tens of millions of people, if not more.
- perl4ever 7y agoSuffering is necessary; I don't subscribe to the belief that it's somehow due as the wages of original sin, but to suffer and die is the fate of every human being. Not tens of millions, but all of the billions that have ever existed; not one has ever escaped it. And money is an abstraction. You could eliminate trillions and trillions just by hacking the systems that keep track of who has how much. What I'm trying to say is not that the consequences of climate change aren't grave, but that without mentioning specific numbers and their relationship to other numbers that describe reality, and researching and choosing those in good faith, you are saying nothing.
- readhn 7y agothe problem is that they keep building using outdated technologies!!!! why do they keep building these "paper" houses? average american house is too poorly constructed to handle these things. honestly its just a few sticks and plywood in between most of the time! what hurricane??? Government should force contractors to build using ICF technology, hurricane proof houses on high stilts in coastal areas and problem solved!!! this is a crucial comment: "She dreams of resettling in Key West or Homestead, a safer spot on the Florida mainland. “I’d like to take the money and run,” Rittel said. “But I’ll have to buy something on stilts. I’m not buying anything on the ground down here ever ever again.”"
- tito 7y agoThe sea is rising more slowly today than any day in the foreseeable future. Sea level rise is accelerating. This angle may spark some smart thoughts here.
- mmaunder 7y agoA little late if hurricanes are your benchmark for climate change. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1900_Galveston_hurricane https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1900_Galveston_hurricane What's sad is that most reporters know that climate change is measured in decade long trends. Small yearly increases in sea level, gradual increases in global temps and slow changes in atmospheric composition. But that doesn't get clicks. Associating climate change with outlying catastrophic events is as short sighted as the environmental abuse that causes climate change.
- qqqwerty 7y agoI am completely fine with it. We need to convince low information voters that climate change is a serious issue, and the opposition likes to point at snow storms and bring snowballs to congress as proof that climate change is a hoax.
- solidangle 7y agoAt some point they will figure out that we're lying, and then they will elect another Trump.
- justsubmit 7y agoThey already know. The question now is, when will "you" (i.e. not you personally) figure out that you're lying to yourself about your lying? Stephen Schneider advocated lying to the public in 1996: On the one hand, as scientists we are ethically bound to the scientific method, in effect promising to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but — which means that we must include all the doubts, the caveats, the ifs, ands, and buts. On the other hand, we are not just scientists but human beings as well. And like most people we’d like to see the world a better place, which in this context translates into our working to reduce the risk of potentially disastrous climatic change. To do that we need to get some broad based support, to capture the public’s imagination. That, of course, entails getting loads of media coverage. So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have. This ‘double ethical bind’ we frequently find ourselves in cannot be solved by any formula. Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest. I hope that means being both. --Stephen Schneider in APS News, Aug/Sep 1996, p. 5. How much longer will "you" keep lying?
- shadowprofile77 7y agoPresumably I'll get downvoted for this but here it goes.. I know that news sites like to link anything they can to climate change in the global human-caused sense because it might create more clicks but how is this a "climate exodus" in that sense? It's more a case of people having built homes in a very flat, easily flooded place that has always been really, really shitty for living due to the dangers of extremely bad hurricane damage (something that has been the case since Europeans settled the region). Way too tenuous for a title like that, but it fits the more hysterical narratives of climate change so in it goes. Note, i'm not doubting or denying the very real global dangers of human-caused climate change, but we should be careful in ascribing just anything to them. Some regions of the world have always been unsafe for human habitation due to persistently unfriendly weather, that we have colonized them with our technology doesn't mean that something has fundamentally changed about their climate whenever things go wrong and nature reasserts itself.
- MuffinFlavored 7y ago> It's more a case of people having built homes in a very flat, easily flooded place that has always been really, really shitty for living due to the dangers of extremely bad hurricane damage (something that has been the case since Europeans settled the region). I don't know how to say this politically but this is something that took me back when the call-to-arms came about for the Bahamas recently given the latest hurricane. Isn't it kind of a broken system? Every hurricane season, the Bahamas stands to get absolutely hammered. It's devastating, but... almost on a schedule?
- kls 7y agoSee my post below, Bahamas is no different, most of those houses that where destroyed where built pre-codes. I have a lot of family in the Bahamas, there houses are all on stilts and cat 5 rated. All of their houses survived. Hurricanes are nothing new, we have endured them all of our lives, they are not getting worse or more frequent. My family has been in Florida and the Bahamas for 14 generations along the way it just became second nature to instruct the next generation on what to look for in a house that will survive the storm. My original family homestead is still standing and was built in the 1700's, it has seen many storms some worse that Irma and Dorean.
- chiefalchemist 7y ago> "By the end of the century, 13 million Americans will need to move just because of rising sea levels, at a cost of $1 million each" 13M feels low. Given the "of $1M each" then perhaps they means households. At an average of 4 heads per, 52M individuals feels closer. That said, what goes into a $1M move? Does beachfront property average out that high? Finally, is that $1M in current dollars, or adjusted for inflation estimates?
- chiefalchemist 7y agoLol. Down voted for simple and obvious math. God bless HN. Keep the hate coming. I love it.
- ilamont 7y agoAbout 6 million Floridians will need to move inland by century’s end to avoid inundation, according to Hauer, the demographer, in a 2016 paper. By then, about 80% of the nearby Keys, the archipelago that includes the tourist mecca of Key West, will be underwater. About 3.5 million people would be flooded in South Florida’s Miami-Dade and Broward, the two counties with America’s biggest exposed populations. The article then shows a chart predicting population displacement caused by a 1.8-meter sea level rise. Is that the accepted consensus, that the sea level is rising ~6 feet?
- brohee 7y agoIt's not rising 6 feet permanently, but it does during storm surges. Hence the stilts. (which only partially solve the problem), your road network, water distribution network, electrical network etc still suffers)
- wutwutwut77 7y ago"The Great Climate Exodus Is Starting In The Texas Gulf" https://timedotcom.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/galveston-hurricane-texas.jpg https://timedotcom.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/galveston-hur... 1891 July 6th 80mph from the south 1900 Sept 8th 145mph the great galveston hurricane kills 8,000 people with a 15ft storm surge even though it was low tide while hitting it traveled 6 to 10 miles inland from the ESE .The pressure at landfall was 27.55inches with winds of 110mph.Half of Galveston destroyed with 2,600 buildings destroyed & 10,000 people left homeless would have been much worse if not moving so quickly. It is said that a one inch steel hull of an ocean going freighter was pierced through with a piece of lumber.According to the hurricane research division winds were of Category 4 strength at landfall. Newspaper headline | max wind map | Monument | surge animation | Interview with Julie Lake summer of the storm 1909 july 21st a 10 ft strom surge with 110mph winds from the ESE 41 killed in texas. 1915 AUG 17th a cat 3 120mph kills 275 ,12' tides flooded Galveston 5' to 6' in the Business District. Winds at Galveston were 97 mph gusts to 130mph putting this in the cat 3/4 range.Press 940 mb,.Seawall prevented a repeat of the 1900 disaster.Causes 50 million in damage max wind field 1932 Aug 14th 145mph winds from the SE direct hit 1934 july 27th, a storm surge of 5.9ft with a cat 1,80mph that passes just east while moving south 1942 Aug 21st 80mph from the ESE 1943 July 27th a storm surge of 4 ft ,nineteen killed,86mph winds. 1945 Aug 27th 140mph from the south just west of here 1947 August 24th 80mph from the S.E 1949 oct 4th 130mph from the south 1957 June 27th 110mph(hurdat) Hurricane Audrey well east from the south. Newspaper article 1959 July 25th hurricane Debra hit with 85mph winds bar 29.07 14.42 inches of rain. NHC Wallet 1983 hurricane Alicia on aug 18th causes 2 bill damage as a cat 2/3 with 71 to 98mph winds in Galveston moving at a forward speed of 8mph. 21 killed 1.2 billion dollars in damage,a 10 to 12 ft storm surge at normal high tide.90% of Dwellings on Jamaica bch destroyed.Many highrise glass buildings sustained heavy damage. Pressure in Galveston was measured at 989mb 29.20 inches at 2:00AM. From NOAA GPST2 - GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER (PORTS) - TX 29.29 max gust 020/076kts Damage photo | #2 | max wind field | Dr Ted Fujita wind map | Newspaper headline | Newspaper headline #2 1989 Oct 15th Jerry 3 dead over 8 million in damage ,85mph winds.The latest a hurricane ever hit the upper Texas coast NHC Wallet 2001 June 5th T.S Allison hits with 60mph winds dumping extremely heavy rain especially inland in the Houston area. Over a 120 hr period houston recorded 36.99 inches of rain.Only 3 tropical systems have produced more rain in this area. T.S Amelia 46.00",T.S Claudette 45.00",unamed 1921 40.00". 41 deaths related to flooding & 5 billion in damage. Allison was finally retired in July of 2002 as the only T-storm to be retired. NHC Report 2008 Hurricane Ike hits Galveston on Sept 13th with 110mph winds causing extensive damage in entire area by 15 ft storm surge.From NOAA GALVESTON G GPST2 11.19 ft storm surge MAJOR 29.29 GALVESTON STATE PLEASURE PIER.A high gust for the Houston area was 92mph at Hobby airport.Gust at pleasure pier 86mph.Deaths reported in Texas at 22 with several missing. Hurricane Warning Show | Before & after aerial shot | Bolivar Peninsula just north | Ike model history | SAR Helicopter refueling over Galveston | Newspaper headline | Newspaper headline 2 days later | Neil Frank describing landfall video | Ike aftermath story video | surge animation | USGS surge info | Radar animation | NHC Final report 2017 Aug 29th tropical storm Harvey just offshore while moving north by 32 miles with 50mph winds. Galveston Scholes Field (KGLS) 22.87 inches of rain gust's to 59mph. Galveston Pier 2.7ft water inundation. Inland counties report upwards of 60inches of rain in some locations most rainfall ever for tropical system in U.S. NHC Final report
- RyanAF7 7y agoClimate change is forced terraforming by oil companies pumping methane into the troposphere where it will radiate 84x the heat as CO2 and will convert to CO2 in 10 years. There is a reason most natural gas wells are also used as cow pastures. Easy to hide from regulators and attribute to livestock. Oil companies own huge portfolios of renewable energy as well as patents on batteries, turbines and other electric efficiencies. Methane is being used to heat the planet as a way to change coastlines, upending worldwide real estate markets, and fueling a whole new market just in time for US oil to dominate for another 100 years. Conspiracy right? I mean, it's not like the oil, steel and auto companies conspired to buy and dismantel the municipal trollies that existed in every major city at the turn of the 20th century. Or how banks, rating agencies and insurers conspired to steal everyones homes through the largest financial scam in world history and then skate off scott free. We sure talk a lot about Global Warming 10 years after realizing the Fed and international banking cartels were goose stepping us into slavery. For which we're all very silent about now. Guess there isn't enough reason to "start the conversation".
- mrfusion 7y agoDisclaimer. I have unwavering faith in climate change. But I do wonder why are banks writing mortgages on houses in these kind of areas? Shouldn’t they be more worried about losing their investment over 30 years?
- hyperbovine 7y agoYou mean the same banks who were underwriting NINA mortgages as fast as they could print them out back in 05-07? (That's "No Income, No Asset", for those of you who do not recall.)
- cortesoft 7y ago"Banks" don't write mortgages, bankers do, and they worry about making their money now. They aren't on the hook for the long run. Even banks aren't, they are going to package up the mortgages and sell them to someone else. We know mortgage writers don't care about the long term viability of their loans, just look at the subprime mortgage crisis from last decade.
- jellicle 7y agoAs long as you've got a reasonable downpayment (or paid for some sort of default insurance), or you at least paid on the mortgage for a few years, the bank has little chance of losing their money. It's YOUR money at risk, not theirs. If you default and your property value has dropped 20% due to rising seas - but you had a 20% downpayment - the bank will end up whole, only you will be wiped out. In a well-constructed mortgage, the bank has essentially zero risk of loss.
- justsubmit 7y ago> I have unwavering faith in climate change. That sounds like a religious statement, not a scientific one.
- Synless 7y agoThis actually started in Louisiana: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/24/louisiana-town-moves-to-higher-ground-amid-growing-climate-crisis.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/24/louisiana-town-moves-to-high...
- lulu59 7y agoGreat news Mr Bloomberg, about time some of these bozos left the islands, maybe we can finally enjoy the place without being flooded by tourists. We used to have September to ourselves now not even that is quiet. The Florida Keys are being purchased by conglomerates and wealthy people like never before in history. Housing is blooming, and tourism is also. The exodus is happening, but that is New York City. They are all moving down to Miami and the Keys. You want to play alarmist? Then include Miami sir, because ALL OF FLORIDA will be affected by weather changes and patterns, like LA, like the coastal Carolinas in about 100 years or so. Until then I doubt Amazon would HQ in S FL if there was fear of submersion. Until the great flood will happen, get the heck out of our islands!
- kls 7y agoLOL I absolutely know you are from the islands! What key are you on. This September has been busy, if it had not been for Doreen threatening us, I don't thing it would have slowed down at all. All my favorite restaurants closed shop for the month though.
- lulu59 7y agoAbout time New Yorkers stopped their exodus to come and bug us in the keys.
- RyanUnited 7y agoShadow banned by HN faggots lol Welcome to China guys, where fake ass hackers are about get to get their shit fucked up. :)