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As incomes rise in China people will demand other things from the government than food, shelter and a comfortable middle class life. Hong Kong was ahead of the
by dep_b 7y ago
As incomes rise in China people will demand other things from the government than food, shelter and a comfortable middle class life. Hong Kong was ahead of the rest of China since they have been living pretty liberal under UK rule and were more prosperous. Whatever they do in Hong Kong now will not stop from things happening all over China at a given point.
- Jgrubb 7y agoNever underestimate the persuasive power of a regime murdering several thousand people in plain sight. I remember thinking the same thing about the Arab Spring in 2009.
- dsfyu404ed 7y agoI generally agree with you but it's a lot easier for the west to turn a blind eye to the middle east or Africa (especially post fracking) than it is to turn a blind eye to the far east. By virtue of their standards of living, deep economic ties and stable governments the more developed parts of the far east are basically honorary Europe in the west's mind and that comes with higher expectations of civility. It's really hard to predict where the "fuck it, you've gone too far, we can't do nothing this time" line is. Remember, basically everyone else in Asia is rooting for the west to cut china off economically so they can fill China's manufacturing role. I agree that unless the Chinese really butcher people it will be business as usual but the chance of some viral video lighting a fire under the politician's asses is not to be discounted, especially when the current US administration has taken a policy line that means they will play up these kinds of things for negotiating leverage. Edit: by "honorary Europe" I mean they have similar standards of living, similar strong and stable government institutions and with that comes the expectation that they won't just drive tanks over people at the drop of a hat. Basically, they're rich enough that we expect them to handle the problem in what we consider the "right way".
- krageon 7y agoWhat do you mean when you say "honorary Europe", because I am certain it does not mean what I expect it to mean: A fundamentally fair and well-functioning society with very few if any governmental killings and high stability within it's borders.
- woah 7y agoYou should read about Spain
- fieryskiff1 7y agoAre you comparing Spain with China? Who are you reading comfortably from SF?
- gassius 7y agoYeah, tell me about government killings in Spain, please
- krageon 7y agoIt's warm, they like seafood, they used to have a big empire and they're a part of Europe. Is there a specific direction you had in mind for my reading, making this a worthy comment instead of an empty bit of snark?
- swarnie_ 7y ago> A fundamentally fair and well-functioning society with very few if any governmental killings and high stability within it's borders. This is what I assumed it meant. I know its difficult to make this work with the US but lots of Asian cities can boast these features.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- jbattle 7y agoTiananmen square Tiananmen square Tiananmen square Tiananmen square Tiananmen square
- sbmthakur 7y agoArab Spring started in late 2010, if I'm not wrong.
- sambull 7y agoI consider it one of the first major climate crisis shifts, after large record heat year in 2010 and drought in the region. Climate refugees were forced into cities and in closer proximity flaming sectarian and cultural divides. These tensions were easily absconded upon by those who wanted to make something better for their particular in group.
- sfthrower89 7y agoRemember that the Arab spring was sparked off not by a climate refugee, but rather a street salesman, who publicly committed suicide via self-isolation after being brutalized by Tunisian police. Don't get me wrong, I think you're actually right, but there are many, many other factors involved.
- Jgrubb 7y agoOh weird, you're right. I had the clearest memory of where I was and the blog posts I wrote at the time about it. But actually it was Iran I was thinking of - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Iranian_presidential_election_protests https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Iranian_presidential_elec...
- StreamBright 7y agoYou mean how Saudi Arabia murdering people with the help of US? I agree.
- lambdasquirrel 7y agoAFAICT, that’s ironically that’s the main reason why the CCP can paint the protesters in a bad light. Look at what happened in Libya, Syria, Egypt, etc. Do you want your country to become like that? Do you want to welcome an American intervention, and the joy and prosperity it brought to Iraq? Do you want to invite Western management of capitalism and the success it wrought in Russia in the 90’s? You can disagree with the CCP’s premise, but US actions in the Middle East, and perceived US meddling in the world has done more to reinforce the CCP’s rule than any other country. And if there’s one thing East Asian cultures really dislike in society, it’s uncleanliness and disharmony. In particular, China’s history is one civil war and famine after another, with a period of peace in between, and the West seems to fundamentally misunderstand how they think over there. I’d wager that the CCP can open fire with machine guns on the protesters and they might even be cheered on in the mainland. But they probably won’t, perhaps even fearing in the back of their mind what an example that will set in some later time. How would they justify that? That it’s okay to light into American-supported protesters? Who have had it so good for so long in the gilded city of theirs? And make no mistake, there is a tone of anti-mainland on the HK’ers part that can be easily construed as snobbery as well. That would all be a sort of nationalism you can’t walk back on easily. To that end, you should not suppose that when a revolution in China — as it inevitably will — will be produce a government friendly to your values. It did not happen in Russia, it hasn’t been happening anywhere in the Middle East, even in Iraq where the US poured a trillion into the effort, and Europe is arguably weaker for what has been happening there as well.
- catacombs 7y agoChina is a behemoth. Even if they storm Hong Kong with soldiers and beat the protesters bloody, many leaders won't stand up to China, mainly because Pooh Bear is a bully and too many countries rely on China financially.
- mymythisisthis 7y agoChina is where the USA was in the 1950s; lots of industrial growth but lots of pollutions, a population happy about all the new wealth and not willing to protest.
- loyukfai 7y agoWhen did protest start to become common in the states?
- JoeAltmaier 7y agoWell in 1688 Quakers in America protested against slavery. 1773: Boston Tea Party. Temperance in the 1800's. Women's Vote in 1913. But they entered the public awareness in 1963 with the March on Washington, and haven't let up since.
- big_chungus 7y agoIt's a bit sad, but I believe "protests" have lost their meaning. All of what you described were meaningful events, but it these days some one is always protesting something. For instance, there are "women's marches" every year turning out tons of people in a society where equal rights are constitutionally enshrined. That probably doesn't merit such an event. My concern is that if, Heaven forbid, there is ever again something worth protesting to that degree, no one will pay attention. Regular Americans, rather than being swayed, will look on and say, "Oh look honey, the kids are protesting again."
- pstuart 7y ago> a society where equal rights are constitutionally enshrined I don't think they are as "enshrined" as you think they are.
- noio 7y agoAre you talking about the US? I though the Equal Rights Amendment was not yet ratified, and that equal rights are thus not actually 'constitutionally enshrined'?
- alexmlamb2 7y agoThis is just the brainwashing that you've received growing up in the west. I know because I grew up in the US, but I've learned more about other countries and realized that things aren't really like this.
- tonyedgecombe 7y agoAccusing people of being brainwashed isn’t a strong argument.
- markus_zhang 7y agoI'd say that nothing is white and black and a deeper analysis usually reveals interesting facts.
- inflatableDodo 7y agoWhy does the CIA own all that abstract art again?
- alexmlamb2 7y agoAccusing those who accuse people of being brainwashed of not having a strong argument is not a strong argument.
- madez 7y agoIt isn't an argument on the topic and it isn't supposed to be. It is a reminder for you to stay rational and avoid ad hominems.
- dinkudunk 7y agoThe argument wasn't that they were brainwashed. The argument was that OP is an ideologue with western-centrist ideals that need further justification.
- echaozh 7y agoCannot agree more.
- markus_zhang 7y agoThe history of HK is essentially the rule of the central government (UK or China) and the local overlords (The few families and their lackeys the triads). HK's prosperity was largely the result of Cold War and I'm afraid that is gone forever (unless of course the world goes on that route again).
- api 7y agoRussia seems to be trying to build crazy dead hand nuclear cruise missiles and America is talking openly about militarizing space. I would say we are back on the entrance ramp to that route. Maybe we both figure it's a way to get GDP up...
- bin0 7y ago> dead hand I assume you are referring to "dead man's switch"? If so, we've had the concept of mutually assured destruction for a long time. With our radar capabilities etc. we can see bombs coming long before they hit. Plenty of time to launch our own. Same goes for the Russians. With respect to militarizing space, the French are doing it too, and I don't hear the same issues being raised. It's better we get there before, say, China or Russia. https://www.ft.com/content/a479bcb6-a628-11e9-984c-fac8325aaa04 https://www.ft.com/content/a479bcb6-a628-11e9-984c-fac8325aa...
- mac01021 7y ago> America is talking openly about militarizing space Where can I read about this?
- wbl 7y agoIt's still prosperous today. Across the river is Shenzen, which is a manufacturing powerhouse.
- peterbraden 7y agoIt's still a critical piece of the financial gateway into China.
- emptyfile 7y agoAmerican delusions. I thought that the wide support for Trump's trade war was in part an admission of your politicians that precisely that sort of liberalization of China failed.
- dragonsh 7y agoThese are fake news to foment Hong Kong protestors by conflating facts. I hope such fake news do not become part of HN. You are absolutely right Hong Kong cannot even provide proper shelter or health system or good education to more than 40% of its people, who live in a space smaller than prison cell. All these protests are due to this simmering discontent. I do not think living in a prison cell size apartment and then being hold hostage to mortgage for life working for 14 rich billionaires of the city is ahead of it's time. Hong Kong is just paying price of its own reliance on get rich quick through property and closed China. First one destroyed innovation and second one is no longer true. Today Chinese cities are way ahead in innovation and technology, they also have a property bubble but not as severe as Hong Kong. Hope they learn lesson from Hong Kong. When it suited Hong Kong they asked China to reinterpret basic law for their own benefit against basic human rights separating spouses and kids and they still do it with impunity and all people in Hong Kong are happy with that reinterpretation. You cross line once you cannot go back, this is what Hong Kong asked for and got it. Moreover Hong Kong is a Chinese territory so everything applicable in China apply except few exception as defined in basic law.
- semi-extrinsic 7y agoIf what you say is true, about simmering discontent in HK due to conditions worse than in China. Why don't the HK people just move to China? Are there any rules against that? If not, why are they staying in HK?
- dragonsh 7y agoLet me clear one thing people in Hong Kong are in China. Hong Kong is China with few exceptions of basic law. For your question moving between cities anywhere is hard. Moreover most population in Hong Kong is not that well educated to get better paying jobs as locals have better university education and good English knowledge in tier 1 cities. People live in Hong Kong as they don't have a choice or skills or resources. Most Hong Kong people with skills or resources are already either in China or other parts of the world.
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- aikah 7y ago> Whatever they do in Hong Kong now will not stop from things happening all over China at a given point. It's interesting how 30 years ago, western economists were trying to sell everybody how moving all our industries to China will eventually turn the latter into a democracy because economic growth and democracy goes hand in hand. 30 years later, the Chinese communist party has never been as powerful as it is today and they are still employing the same barbaric methods to crush any form of rebellion, as seen with how they are dealing with the Uyghur.
- andrekandre 7y agoif they actually believed “markets” to lead to democracy, that seems to me they conflated democracy (rule of the people) with capitalism (rule of capital)... my opinion: they are not at all the same thing, and it was naive to think it would happen in china (markets existed a long time before capitalism even existed and democracy was quite the no-show for a long time)
- rolltiide 7y agoIt was just pandering to national pride Doing that still works ya know
- hos234 7y agoIt's a fragile kind of power. If Xi croaks tomorrow morning, god knows whether the current power structures will stay intact. There are lots and lots of factions that have very different interests.
- alangibson 7y agoWhen I read statements like this, I always think of a quote by Noam Chomsky: "Violence usually works."
- novaleaf 7y agoHistory proves this. Only modern democracies don't have the stomach for it.
- sa-mao 7y agoOh! They have but not to their own people.
- dnautics 7y agoEventually the us gave up butchering people in Vietnam.
- novaleaf 7y agomore like gave up getting butchered.
- shadowprofile77 7y agojust over 58,000 American dead vs. roughly 2 to 4 million Vietnamese dead (depending on how you count the casualties). I'd say they did a lot more butchering than they received.
- novaleaf 7y agoyes I agree, but the number of dead Vietnamese was not the reason for the war's unpopularity in the USA.
- pwinnski 7y agoDid we, though? We've been at war almost continuously since then.
- intopieces 7y agoThis was the theory during the Clinton administration and, to be blunt, that theory has been wrong. The Chinese people do not see risking growth disruption as worth what the west considers freedom. The west has fundamentally failed to make that case to them and even now western democracy is on the decline. Please, please do not take a free China for granted. Do not think that change — that democracy and freedom — is inevitable. It’s not.
- atupis 7y agoThing is that China is nearing point where it has to let creative destruction happen to grow more and it is very hard to achieve under current model.
- philipov 7y agoCitation please
- atupis 7y agohttps://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/01/opinion/sunday/friedman-why-nations-fail.html https://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/01/opinion/sunday/friedman-w... and particulary last chapter of Why Nations Fail.
- intopieces 7y agoCould you elaborate more on what this means? What is creative destruction? Why is it necessary for China’s growth, and why is now the point for it?
- mr_overalls 7y agoWhen "creative destruction" is used as a euphemism for change, it encourages us to forget that "destructive destruction" is always a potential outcome. See: the Great Leap Forward
- nradov 7y agoFreedom and democracy aren't inevitable, but occasional revolutions and civil wars are inevitable in China. They've had quite a few and there's a good chance we'll see another one in our lifetimes. The next revolution probably won't produce a liberal democracy.
- 8ytecoder 7y ago(I don’t remember where I read this now.) Chinese view of a govt is fundamentally different from the West. They don’t see their govt as apart from them. Govt is like an extended family there. Viewed from his angle it’s not hard to understand why they’d want an authoritarian govt let alone tolerate it.
- justicezyx 7y ago> Hong Kong was ahead of the rest of China since they have been living pretty liberal under UK rule and were more prosperous. No. HK people are not enjoying enough middle-class comfort and prosperity. Precisely, HK's income inequality is even worse than mainland China (0.537 vs. 0.467). And because HK has historically been more liberal, it's a subject of many rich and powerful, especially the demand from mainland people drives the real estate price even further [3]. HK's violent street protest is because there isn't a strong and significant middle class group. Otherwise, we all know for sure that middle class are never politically radical, nor are they willing to sacrifice their livelihood for the so-called freedom. [1] https://www.hongkongfp.com/2017/06/09/hong-kong-household-income-inequality-rises-record-high-census-shows/ https://www.hongkongfp.com/2017/06/09/hong-kong-household-in... [2] https://www.statista.com/statistics/250400/inequality-of-income-distribution-in-china-based-on-the-gini-index/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/250400/inequality-of-inc... [3] https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/17/correction-not-a-crisis-in-hong-kong-property-market-investor-says.html https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/17/correction-not-a-crisis-in-h...
- tempguy9999 7y ago> HK people are not enjoying enough middle-class comfort and prosperity. > Precisely, HK's income inequality is even worse than mainland China I'm not claiming you are wrong but inequality may not be tied to prosperity directly. For example, I have £10,000,000 and all the people on my street only have £1000,000. That's high inequality. Someone in rural china has RMB 2,000, the rest of the village has RMB 1,000 Much less inequality but I'd prefer the former to the latter.
- justicezyx 7y agoI was not clear. Inequity + high commodity price (housing being one of the most important foundation of comfort) translate to majority of the population are suffering.
- yfzhou 7y agoPeople in the Middle East did exactly that, only to lose everything they had before. Doesn't look like China will fall for this again after the West has gone out of its way setting up examples around the world to convince them it doesn't work.
- ksec 7y agoThat is why Maslow Theory is a theory and not a law. Because it has now been proven wrong.