14 ms·

Apple's famous walled garden is starting to show cracks

126 points by SirLJ 8y ago

tyingq 8y ago
Won't happen, but an Apple iCloud/Maps/etc enabled AOSP phone to compete on the low end would interesting.
- GeekyBear 8y ago
  Alternately, Microsoft could step in with the various service layers they developed for Windows Phone. If they were to open source alternatives to Google's Play Services and give developers a low or no cost app distribution method, I could imagine them doing a lot of business hosting instances of those service layers on Azure. Developers get lower costs and Microsoft picks up more cloud share.
  - mikhailt 8y ago
    They already did started that with their Android launcher; Arrow. (https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.microsoft.launcher https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.microsoft....) It'a also why they're updating Windows 10 steadily to support integrating with Android deeply as well. Not to mention they've working on their Linux subsystem for Windows (WSL), cross-platform services and apps like VSC, buying Github, Xamarin, etc), and also porting/improving macOS apps like Visual Studio and Office on macOS. Microsoft's cash cow is now their services and why they're turning previous Windows and Office cash cows into subscription services. I suspect they plan to do an overall Microsoft service; get Windows, Office, OneDrive, and Surface for a monthly price. Which is what I suspect Apple will do as well as Google; all of them will do software+hardware bundle subscription service. Imagine paying 100$ a month to get latest hardware and software all the time.
- jdillaaa 8y ago
  Definitely would never happen. iCloud is a huge lock in factor to iOS / macOS. Opening that up would be like opening up iMessage, it would allow way too many people to easily leave the Apple ecosystem. iCloud + iMessage are two of the best features of iOS (and that lovely UI + good security)
  - tyingq 8y ago
    Well, the idea is opening it up only for an Apple sold AOSP phone. In some way that attracts customers that aren't in their current demographics, but without cannibalizing current customers. But, yes, agree...won't happen.
awinder 8y ago
I feel like apple has definitely matured a bit on the biz side that they’re effectively making drastic culture change within a few quarters of sales pace slowdowns, considering the years where they let rot fester the last time the company was in trouble. Maybe they’ve learned lessons from the past or from Microsoft’s journey but in either case, it’s promising that they seem to understand what some of the big deals are when committing to services business line. I also think apple has one of the most compelling digital movie purchase systems so it’ll be interesting to see if this follows the iTunes music biz model where they expand to more platforms and take over a lot of the revenue. The system is way more stable at higher quality than competitors like vudu, and they’re trying to do the right thing by avoiding this push to charge more than $20 per movie. Also backdating purchases to upgrade 1080p movies to 4K was a very slick move.
- jordache 8y ago
  > also think apple has one of the most compelling digital movie purchase systems People don't decide which platform to purchase a movie from based on how compelling the streaming technology is. It needs to be a platform that's accessible on their device firstly.
  - mikhailt 8y ago
    Deleted due to misunderstanding.
    - jordache 8y ago
      i'm making a generalization of how the mass majority of consumers behave. Most people are not apple fanatics. Most people do not need to purchase the movie and value "portability" of such digital format. Most movies are not worthy of repeat views, esp at different locations. Most people do not differentiate that much between HD and 4K when watching at home, on a setup that is not a home theatre.
    - SyneRyder 8y ago
      > In this case, he didn't say anything about streaming tech They did, they commented that iTunes had better streaming than Vudu: "The system is way more stable at higher quality than competitors like vudu..."
dplgk 8y ago
Starting?
error629 8y ago
We are a long way from the launch of the iPod and Apple has done just fine. The article reads like you still need an Apple gateway (AirPlay2).
zapzupnz 8y ago
> As Apple struggles with sluggish iPhone sales Yeah, iPhone sales are below expectations, but Apple's struggling? Hyperbole remains the tech journalism's go-to, I see. I was hoping tech journalism might've made cutting that nonsense out part of their New Year's resolutions, but apparently not.
- tyingq 8y ago
  52-wk high 233.47 52-wk low 142.00 I don't think "struggling" is hyperbole. They are still making lots of money, sure. But the market smells something significant.
  - greendesk 8y ago
    That is the Apple stock price, not iPhone sales. These are related, though separate issues. A stock price can go or down for a number of reasons.
    - zapzupnz 8y ago
      Yeah. The iPhone 4 sold like hotcakes, but the antennagate media circus made the stock go up and down like mad.
    - tyingq 8y ago
      What I was replying to: "Yeah, iPhone sales are below expectations, but Apple's struggling? Hyperbole remains..." The complaint was specifically the article's characterization that Apple is "struggling". First sentence of the article: "As Apple struggles with sluggish iPhone sales and a falling stock price..." falling-stock-price
      - adamlett 8y ago
        But saying that a company is struggling because it stocks price is falling is like saying that a dog is happy because it is wagging its tail. In other words, it is reversing cause and effect. A company’s stock price may be falling for any number of reasons, one of them being that the company is struggling in the market, just like a dog may wag its tail for any number of reasons, one of them being that it is happy.
zitterbewegung 8y ago
I think it is more likely that Apple's strategy is Embrace, Extend , and Extinguish. Does anyone else remember when iTunes could sync with a Motorola phone?
- ceejayoz 8y ago
  Apple's strategy has largely avoided "embrace". Their couple of attempts at it - letting third parties make Mac clones, and the Motorola ROKR - flopped spectacularly. The ROKR was largely a way to build relationships with cell carriers. If you watch Jobs introducing it, his disgust for it is palpable, and they launched the iPod Nano alongside it as an additional "fuck this thing".
  - CodeWriter23 8y ago
    *and the iPhone was under active development at the time. Jobs additionally played Fadell and the iPod team with this move.
newscracker 8y ago
> The famous Apple walled garden may not be crumbling, but the cracks are starting to show. Bashing Apple never seems to go out of fashion. Companies change strategies for various reasons, including slowing, stagnating or negative growth, revenues, profits, etc. Apple is doing what any capitalistic company would do. There are many things Apple is yet to open up and/or bring to other platforms (and in all likelihood it will never become the Microsoft of recent times). Apple didn’t just wake up last month and say, “Oh, by the way, our services side doesn’t have a defined growth strategy, and now we need all hands on deck to figure it out.” It already had a strategy for at least a couple of years, if not longer, to make services a bigger piece of the pie and growing it was a key focus area. Any arrangements, in relation to other platforms and devices, that we have seen announced in the last few weeks or months have likely been in the works for several months or years. One can argue how well the services side is picking up...or not. But calling it as “the walled garden is cracking” is just a negative spin to catch eyeballs.
- pjmlp 8y ago
  Had Steve Jobs not brought Apple back to its roots, and there wouldn't be a company to bash about. I remember how it looked after the amazing Copland launch.
- ksec 8y ago
  >Bashing Apple never seems to go out of fashion. I keep hearing this and people's memories are funny. It wasn't even a fashion until Steve past away. Apple were the media darling for the during iPhone 2G to 5 era. It started with iPhone 6s when they had a first YoY iPhone Unit drop, mostly because iPhone 6 in previous year were doing far too good. Then the bashing seems to get louder as every iteration after it continues.
mistrial9 8y ago
for those that remember 90s tech.. it was a Very Big Issue that Apple created The Apple Store where all software must be purchased (online). Lots of smaller companies made money selling software for Macintosh in various ways.. because they ran their own store, you know, the ones that determine and hold the profit margins on sales? It was not-at-all decided that the one mothership company should run the only store, and to REQUIRE users to purchase software there? The phone ecosystem has since become FAR more dollars per month than Mac software ever was in its entirety, and the norms of the phone market are not the norms of the desktop market. Massive centralization is ordinary with the phones.. meaning centralized control. There is nothing ordinary about the way citizens and phones and markets are working .. this is new territory.. without commenting on the article, I take the headline as a comment on the (highly controversial) Apple Store. Evolving past that Apple company store is news.
- GeekyBear 8y ago
  Do you remember what a low percentage of the retail price of software the developers took home in those days? It was necessary to make a deal to sell through a software distribution company (for example Ingram Micro) because brick and mortar chains would not deal with software developers directly, and they took a cut. The retailer took another cut and required things like unsold inventory be returnable, cost sharing for newspaper sales circulars in the Sunday paper, and fees for shelf space.
  - justapassenger 8y ago
    It wasn’t THAT much lower, compared to today, if you include things like advertising costs you need to pay today, to get your app to sell. It works differently and you have different middle mans, but it’s not that much different for an average joe.
sjg007 8y ago
Apple really needs to double down on Siri and take voice interaction to the next level. Part of this means that apple really needs to get its own knowledge/sematic web solution. The new Google interactive radar thing is neat. Apple needs to figure that out. That the iphone/ipad can be a bigger compute device with external attachments could be a bigger development then we think (like the Samsung dock thing).. People don't buy laptops in the same sense anymore and that will help justify higher prices. The Apple upgrade rent/lease program is basically a way to get higher prices over time. Apple should have its own MVNO.
- faitswulff 8y ago
  What's the interactive radar thing you mentioned?
  - rch 8y ago
    There was a story a few days ago about using radar for object recognition and gesture tracking (among other things). https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18855337 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18855337
    - walterbell 8y ago
      2019 iPhone is rumored to have new Sony depth sensing (time of flight) camera on rear, for AR and normal photos.
      - rch 8y ago
        Google also had Project Tango, which I believe used hardware IP they acquired through their brief ownership of Motorola. They scrapped that approach since current mobile processors are powerful enough to accomplish the same thing in software. Occipital's Structure Sensor has been available for years, and uses an active scan along the lines of what the Kinect does. Among the available options, I'm most interested in calculating depth from parallax relative to motion using scale heuristics and dead reckoning, like Tango. Particularly for outdoor applications.
40acres 8y ago
Apple's resurgence was built moreso on great hardware than software, due to Jobs philosophy and the nature of hardware this naturally led to a more vertical / walled garden approach. The next "big thing" in tech is trending to be AI powered voice assistants, an assistant is more of a horizontal play as you'd need it to be compatible with many different devices and services. With the PC and phone markets mature, what differentiates Apple from it's competition? Especially when the gulf in quality is getting smaller and smaller?
deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
resters 8y ago
I sold my Apple stock about 8 months ago. These are the relevant data points: - Apple is a superb company but the stock price is still too high. - Apple faces increasing competition from its own older phones that still work just fine. - The older phones work just fine because Apple was caught crippling the older phones to preserve the life of the $20 battery inside the phone, and ended up having to simply replace batteries rather than sell new phones. This should be considered a scandal on par with the Volkswagen emissions scandal. I suspect the crippling was timed to make the shiny new phone seem all that much more appealing. Note that Google recently rolled out Android updates that default a lot of battery killing AI features to "on" even on older devices, dramatically reducing their battery life. This may have been an attempt to boost sales of new phones, or it may be that Google thinks the AI features are so compelling that they will drive new purchases. - Apple has continued its practice of small, steady improvements to iOS, but has also dramatically increased the price of the phones. I had to chuckle when I realized I spent $1K on my last iPhone. Wow. I'd argue that the incredible Moore's law-like growth of mobile technology has actually held back a lot of innovation, and now that the platforms are more mature we'll see bigger investment in platform technologies that were risky before when the target devices two years out were largely unknown. Apple has still shied away from trying to defend its market share by entering the low end market. Like Github's decision (far too late, after Bitbucket nearly caught up) to offer unlimited private repos, Apple will eventually enter the low end market, but only after its lunch starts to be eaten by competitors. What happens when new big budget production apps don't prioritize iPhone by default as the first platform to launch on? Apple has no strategy to deal with this, and has neglected its development tooling substantially. This is basically the position Microsoft was in (and a nearly identical strategy) right before it took its own nose dive. Apple should: - Release a $199 iPhone as quickly as possible, and a $199 iPad also. - Team up with Facebook to make React-Native a first class citizen for iOS development, even if this is a hostile fork and a blessed version released directly by Apple. - Institute some programs (battery replacement, etc.) that show that the devices are the only one anyone would ever consider buying. - Work with software vendors to create apps that actually do require the latest hardware features and the newest phones. Most apps do not need these. - Make the devices fully waterproof so I can throw mine in the dishwasher once in a while to get it clean. - Create car radios that are "CarPlay Only" that can be retrofitted into vehicles that didn't ship with one. - Release a version of OSX that works (and is supported on) Intel NUC hardware.
GeekyBear 8y ago
Giving people on other platforms the tools they need to allow them to purchase content directly from Apple has been around since the iTunes Store and iPod first made an appearance for Windows. It continued with Apple Music on Android, and I don't see any difference in Apple's strategy here today. Apple is moving into video subscriptions and wants to make sure the broader market can purchase their content.
- NicoJuicy 8y ago
  And people who don't have an iDevice, probably won't buy a service from them. Because when you have an iDevice, you are a first-class civilian. Nobody wants to be a second-class civilian. My 2 cents, so a personal opinion. Would appreciate disclosing if you have a "iDevice" or not, if commenting :). I don't have one now, did buy the 3GS when it came out. Edit: as I thought. Downvotes and no comments :). Nobody obviously remembers iTunes on Windows...
  - baxtr 8y ago
    Well, your comment feels negative and not balanced. I think readers on HN like balanced views. I guess you knew ;-) PS: I do
    - NicoJuicy 8y ago
      Not all comments can be positive, didn't knew this was a requirement. I hope you don't read the comments when Google has there next privacy related topic... My view was balanced, based on experience of the past. I had no Apple warranty/support when there seemed to be a iPod hard drive bug. iTunes was a requirement for iPhone and hell. My desktop was no Apple, I felt like a second class citizen. Ps. You didn't argue why my comment was false. I like second opinions. Which is why we are here, seeing another perspective or learning something new. I guess you knew :) But perhaps I'm just here a bit longer than you ;)
      - baxtr 8y ago
        I guess you are! ;-)
onetimemanytime 8y ago
Well, Apple reached $1 Trillion in market cap in 2018. Odds were that the only way was down...you can't keep growing at 20% qtr to qtr forever, or you'd own the world. Add the fact that today's smartphones do 99% of what people want and new ones are not that much better to justify spending $1000 on them. Add Android competitors from all over the world and you have a very profitable Apple, but not one growing like a "startup." Cheaper iPhone? Maybe, but the $500 iPhone would way worst than a $500 Android one made by others so...
- Marsymars 8y ago
  > you can't keep growing at 20% qtr to qtr forever, or you'd own the world. Yeah, a lot of people don't intuitively get this; but any growth above GDP growth is some part of the pie you're taking away from someone else.
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
skh 8y ago
When the ability to make books for iBooks came out I was excited. I would like to write a math textbook with embedded videos in it. I was about to explore doing this in iBooks but then I realized that I would be limiting my audience to those with Apple devices. I abandoned the idea. I buy digital books from Amazon and not Apple because I know that Amazon will make its books available on any device. As far as I know iBooks are not available on non-Apple devices. Why would someone lock themselves in? If they made their digital services device agnostic I’d buy from them.
- Paianni 8y ago
  Amazon could kill support for any platform at any time if they wish. If I get any eBooks at all I want them to be in an open standard (e.g ePub) with no DRM whatsoever.
  - skh 8y ago
    That is certainly true. But given the choice between Amazon or Apple when it comes to digital content I choose Amazon for the reasons given. Maybe they'll lock things down but I doubt it.
  - chipotle_coyote 8y ago
    I definitely prefer that. Amusingly, most of my DRM-free ebooks are in Apple Books, because it's become a really great reader and it's trivial to get "outside" books into it.
  - EdwardCoffin 8y ago
    And they have a history of doing this. Before they had the Kindle, they sold Adobe digital editions content, and after they made the switch they retired the Adobe digital edition license servers. I lost an ebook I desperately wanted when they did this. They didn't send a warning about the upcoming retirement either, despite the books being registered to email addresses which they could easily have sent alerts to.
    - nanoseltzer 8y ago
agumonkey 8y ago
When hardware slows to sell you ramp up services ?? better make more interesting phones and laptops and accept the end of growth rather than dilluting your spirit into chasing revenue
14 8y ago
I would love to see Apple move towards a truly modular phone. Just broke my screen. If I could walk into a retail store and get the screen module I would have done so right away. Now I have to go on eBay order and wait hoping I can survive with a cracked screen until it arrives. If anyone could do a modular phone it would be apple.
- jmull 8y ago
  The problem with a modular phone (no matter who makes it) is there are big design tradeoffs. To increase the modularity, especially from an end-user perspective, you have to give up some combination of size, cost, power, battery life, water-resistance or other features. It just probably isn't worth it, especially for the case of a partially damaged device where there are probably better solutions... Like a "loaner" program or 2-hr on-site repair for most repairs. These would increase the cost of repair (or repair insurance like Apple Care)... that's a tradeoff in its own right, but at least it doesn't impact your day-to-day usage of the device.
  - DonHopkins 8y ago
    The Novation Apple-Cat II was the last truly modular Apple phone. You could plug in your favorite stylish handset with a standard connector, and easily replace the screen with any TV set or monitor of your choosing. https://apple2history.org/history/ah13/#attachment_1622 https://apple2history.org/history/ah13/#attachment_1622
    - jmull 8y ago
      That’s beautiful. I just set up a home office and I’m thinking I need to get one of these and figure out how to set it up as my office phone somehow.
shmerl 8y ago
It started crumbling when Apple joined Alliance for Open Media. Since they were obnoxiously anti free codecs in the past, it was surprising to see Apple there.
chipotle_coyote 8y ago
This is not about "cracking the walled garden"; we're comparing, well, not apples and oranges as much as Apples and Netflixes. This is about laying the groundwork for Apple's new video service -- the question was always whether they wanted to use it as a way to sell overpriced TV pucks, like they've traditionally done with their services, or it was going to be its own thing. they wanted to have everywhere. If you're surprised that they're choosing "have it everywhere," it's probably because you haven't been following the mounting tidbits of Hollywood noise about the original content being produced for Apple. We're not talking about Carpool Karaoke anymore. We're talking new shows from J.J. Abrams, Steven Spielberg, Oprah Winfrey, Ron Moore, Damien Chazelle. We're talking about new children's programming with Peanuts and Sesame Street. Shows starring Jennifer Aniston, Steve Carrell, Chris Evans, Reese Witherspoon, Aaron Paul, Jason Momoa. A series based on Isaac Asimov's Foundation. The point is, there is serious firepower happening here, to the point where it's pretty clear this is not "service as adjunct to hardware." This is Apple establishing an actual entertainment division.
- CharlesW 8y ago
  This is excellent insight, chipotle_coyote. The article is a poor take. For anyone who might not be aware of the history, Apple media products have always extended outside of the "walled garden". QuickTime appeared on Windows in 1991, iTunes for Windows was introduced in 2003, and Apple Music has been available on Android since 2015. AirPlay has been supported by 3rd-party devices for quite some time (close to a decade. IIRC).
- jagger27 8y ago
  This is the correct analysis. If you have any doubts that Apple can pull something like this off, you don't have to look very far. Right from the early days of the iPod Apple had the biggest players on the scene on board: Jimmy Iovine in that case. Apple is a much more powerful company than it was then and I see it as very likely they'll pull off a Netflix-sized coup.
- lordnacho 8y ago
  Then the player to watch for would be Disney. Huge, long history in the area, Mickey Mouse knows everyone in the entertainment business. Even though Apple has a gigantic pile of cash there's a real question as to whether they can actually make money this way. One could question whether you can just hire a bunch of famous movie people and then have a movie empire. I'm looking forward to the fight though. There's a good case that we're currently in one of the most productive eras in storytelling, mainly thanks to these titans clashing.
tech_tuna 8y ago
What drives me crazy is the Jobs idol worship. Assuming that if he were alive that Apple wouldn't still have challenges with its platform roadmap. He might have come up with some other/better ideas but it's not like he didn't fail and produce plenty of duds too. I have never been an Apple fan but I'll say this, they generally treat their customers far better than the competition. You'll never go to an Android or Microsoft store (the former doesn't really exist I know) and get the kind of service that Apple offers. I'll never forget the time I went to the Apple store and returned a used laptop battery I bought off of Amazon. It was painless and immediate. My wife loves Apple and for her and for this level of service, I'm happy to continue supporting her having an iPhone, a Macbook, etc.
- Krasnol 8y ago
  Funny you mention the store when it's been in the news for their repair ripoffs.
  - tech_tuna 8y ago
    Ahh, well like I said I'm not much of an Apple fan, I haven't had to do a return/repair there for a while.
    - Krasnol 8y ago
      Just be careful if they tell you that the repair is too expensive and you should just buy a new item. Check with a free repair shop first.
- Fnoord 8y ago
  > I have never been an Apple fan but I'll say this, they generally treat their customers far better than the competition. It took a considerable amount of time until Apple admitted design flaws in iDevices (iPhones and Macbooks recently). Antennagate, Bendgate, Batterygate, the list goes on. I'm typing this on a MBP where the coating went kaboom.
  - 8y ago

126 points by SirLJ 8y ago

tyingq 8y ago

Won't happen, but an Apple iCloud/Maps/etc enabled AOSP phone to compete on the low end would interesting.

GeekyBear 8y ago
Alternately, Microsoft could step in with the various service layers they developed for Windows Phone. If they were to open source alternatives to Google's Play Services and give developers a low or no cost app distribution method, I could imagine them doing a lot of business hosting instances of those service layers on Azure. Developers get lower costs and Microsoft picks up more cloud share.
- mikhailt 8y ago
  They already did started that with their Android launcher; Arrow. (https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.microsoft.launcher https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.microsoft....) It'a also why they're updating Windows 10 steadily to support integrating with Android deeply as well. Not to mention they've working on their Linux subsystem for Windows (WSL), cross-platform services and apps like VSC, buying Github, Xamarin, etc), and also porting/improving macOS apps like Visual Studio and Office on macOS. Microsoft's cash cow is now their services and why they're turning previous Windows and Office cash cows into subscription services. I suspect they plan to do an overall Microsoft service; get Windows, Office, OneDrive, and Surface for a monthly price. Which is what I suspect Apple will do as well as Google; all of them will do software+hardware bundle subscription service. Imagine paying 100$ a month to get latest hardware and software all the time.
jdillaaa 8y ago
Definitely would never happen. iCloud is a huge lock in factor to iOS / macOS. Opening that up would be like opening up iMessage, it would allow way too many people to easily leave the Apple ecosystem. iCloud + iMessage are two of the best features of iOS (and that lovely UI + good security)
- tyingq 8y ago
  Well, the idea is opening it up only for an Apple sold AOSP phone. In some way that attracts customers that aren't in their current demographics, but without cannibalizing current customers. But, yes, agree...won't happen.

awinder 8y ago

I feel like apple has definitely matured a bit on the biz side that they’re effectively making drastic culture change within a few quarters of sales pace slowdowns, considering the years where they let rot fester the last time the company was in trouble. Maybe they’ve learned lessons from the past or from Microsoft’s journey but in either case, it’s promising that they seem to understand what some of the big deals are when committing to services business line. I also think apple has one of the most compelling digital movie purchase systems so it’ll be interesting to see if this follows the iTunes music biz model where they expand to more platforms and take over a lot of the revenue. The system is way more stable at higher quality than competitors like vudu, and they’re trying to do the right thing by avoiding this push to charge more than $20 per movie. Also backdating purchases to upgrade 1080p movies to 4K was a very slick move.

jordache 8y ago
> also think apple has one of the most compelling digital movie purchase systems People don't decide which platform to purchase a movie from based on how compelling the streaming technology is. It needs to be a platform that's accessible on their device firstly.
- mikhailt 8y ago
  Deleted due to misunderstanding.
  - jordache 8y ago
    i'm making a generalization of how the mass majority of consumers behave. Most people are not apple fanatics. Most people do not need to purchase the movie and value "portability" of such digital format. Most movies are not worthy of repeat views, esp at different locations. Most people do not differentiate that much between HD and 4K when watching at home, on a setup that is not a home theatre.
  - SyneRyder 8y ago
    > In this case, he didn't say anything about streaming tech They did, they commented that iTunes had better streaming than Vudu: "The system is way more stable at higher quality than competitors like vudu..."

dplgk 8y ago

Starting?

error629 8y ago

We are a long way from the launch of the iPod and Apple has done just fine. The article reads like you still need an Apple gateway (AirPlay2).

zapzupnz 8y ago

> As Apple struggles with sluggish iPhone sales Yeah, iPhone sales are below expectations, but Apple's struggling? Hyperbole remains the tech journalism's go-to, I see. I was hoping tech journalism might've made cutting that nonsense out part of their New Year's resolutions, but apparently not.

tyingq 8y ago
52-wk high 233.47 52-wk low 142.00 I don't think "struggling" is hyperbole. They are still making lots of money, sure. But the market smells something significant.
- greendesk 8y ago
  That is the Apple stock price, not iPhone sales. These are related, though separate issues. A stock price can go or down for a number of reasons.
  - zapzupnz 8y ago
    Yeah. The iPhone 4 sold like hotcakes, but the antennagate media circus made the stock go up and down like mad.
  - tyingq 8y ago
    What I was replying to: "Yeah, iPhone sales are below expectations, but Apple's struggling? Hyperbole remains..." The complaint was specifically the article's characterization that Apple is "struggling". First sentence of the article: "As Apple struggles with sluggish iPhone sales and a falling stock price..." falling-stock-price
    - adamlett 8y ago
      But saying that a company is struggling because it stocks price is falling is like saying that a dog is happy because it is wagging its tail. In other words, it is reversing cause and effect. A company’s stock price may be falling for any number of reasons, one of them being that the company is struggling in the market, just like a dog may wag its tail for any number of reasons, one of them being that it is happy.

zitterbewegung 8y ago

I think it is more likely that Apple's strategy is Embrace, Extend , and Extinguish. Does anyone else remember when iTunes could sync with a Motorola phone?

ceejayoz 8y ago
Apple's strategy has largely avoided "embrace". Their couple of attempts at it - letting third parties make Mac clones, and the Motorola ROKR - flopped spectacularly. The ROKR was largely a way to build relationships with cell carriers. If you watch Jobs introducing it, his disgust for it is palpable, and they launched the iPod Nano alongside it as an additional "fuck this thing".
- CodeWriter23 8y ago
  *and the iPhone was under active development at the time. Jobs additionally played Fadell and the iPod team with this move.

newscracker 8y ago

> The famous Apple walled garden may not be crumbling, but the cracks are starting to show. Bashing Apple never seems to go out of fashion. Companies change strategies for various reasons, including slowing, stagnating or negative growth, revenues, profits, etc. Apple is doing what any capitalistic company would do. There are many things Apple is yet to open up and/or bring to other platforms (and in all likelihood it will never become the Microsoft of recent times). Apple didn’t just wake up last month and say, “Oh, by the way, our services side doesn’t have a defined growth strategy, and now we need all hands on deck to figure it out.” It already had a strategy for at least a couple of years, if not longer, to make services a bigger piece of the pie and growing it was a key focus area. Any arrangements, in relation to other platforms and devices, that we have seen announced in the last few weeks or months have likely been in the works for several months or years. One can argue how well the services side is picking up...or not. But calling it as “the walled garden is cracking” is just a negative spin to catch eyeballs.

pjmlp 8y ago
Had Steve Jobs not brought Apple back to its roots, and there wouldn't be a company to bash about. I remember how it looked after the amazing Copland launch.
ksec 8y ago
>Bashing Apple never seems to go out of fashion. I keep hearing this and people's memories are funny. It wasn't even a fashion until Steve past away. Apple were the media darling for the during iPhone 2G to 5 era. It started with iPhone 6s when they had a first YoY iPhone Unit drop, mostly because iPhone 6 in previous year were doing far too good. Then the bashing seems to get louder as every iteration after it continues.

mistrial9 8y ago

for those that remember 90s tech.. it was a Very Big Issue that Apple created The Apple Store where all software must be purchased (online). Lots of smaller companies made money selling software for Macintosh in various ways.. because they ran their own store, you know, the ones that determine and hold the profit margins on sales? It was not-at-all decided that the one mothership company should run the only store, and to REQUIRE users to purchase software there? The phone ecosystem has since become FAR more dollars per month than Mac software ever was in its entirety, and the norms of the phone market are not the norms of the desktop market. Massive centralization is ordinary with the phones.. meaning centralized control. There is nothing ordinary about the way citizens and phones and markets are working .. this is new territory.. without commenting on the article, I take the headline as a comment on the (highly controversial) Apple Store. Evolving past that Apple company store is news.

GeekyBear 8y ago
Do you remember what a low percentage of the retail price of software the developers took home in those days? It was necessary to make a deal to sell through a software distribution company (for example Ingram Micro) because brick and mortar chains would not deal with software developers directly, and they took a cut. The retailer took another cut and required things like unsold inventory be returnable, cost sharing for newspaper sales circulars in the Sunday paper, and fees for shelf space.
- justapassenger 8y ago
  It wasn’t THAT much lower, compared to today, if you include things like advertising costs you need to pay today, to get your app to sell. It works differently and you have different middle mans, but it’s not that much different for an average joe.

sjg007 8y ago

Apple really needs to double down on Siri and take voice interaction to the next level. Part of this means that apple really needs to get its own knowledge/sematic web solution. The new Google interactive radar thing is neat. Apple needs to figure that out. That the iphone/ipad can be a bigger compute device with external attachments could be a bigger development then we think (like the Samsung dock thing).. People don't buy laptops in the same sense anymore and that will help justify higher prices. The Apple upgrade rent/lease program is basically a way to get higher prices over time. Apple should have its own MVNO.

faitswulff 8y ago
What's the interactive radar thing you mentioned?
- rch 8y ago
  There was a story a few days ago about using radar for object recognition and gesture tracking (among other things). https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18855337 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18855337
  - walterbell 8y ago
    2019 iPhone is rumored to have new Sony depth sensing (time of flight) camera on rear, for AR and normal photos.
    - rch 8y ago
      Google also had Project Tango, which I believe used hardware IP they acquired through their brief ownership of Motorola. They scrapped that approach since current mobile processors are powerful enough to accomplish the same thing in software. Occipital's Structure Sensor has been available for years, and uses an active scan along the lines of what the Kinect does. Among the available options, I'm most interested in calculating depth from parallax relative to motion using scale heuristics and dead reckoning, like Tango. Particularly for outdoor applications.

40acres 8y ago

Apple's resurgence was built moreso on great hardware than software, due to Jobs philosophy and the nature of hardware this naturally led to a more vertical / walled garden approach. The next "big thing" in tech is trending to be AI powered voice assistants, an assistant is more of a horizontal play as you'd need it to be compatible with many different devices and services. With the PC and phone markets mature, what differentiates Apple from it's competition? Especially when the gulf in quality is getting smaller and smaller?

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resters 8y ago

I sold my Apple stock about 8 months ago. These are the relevant data points: - Apple is a superb company but the stock price is still too high. - Apple faces increasing competition from its own older phones that still work just fine. - The older phones work just fine because Apple was caught crippling the older phones to preserve the life of the $20 battery inside the phone, and ended up having to simply replace batteries rather than sell new phones. This should be considered a scandal on par with the Volkswagen emissions scandal. I suspect the crippling was timed to make the shiny new phone seem all that much more appealing. Note that Google recently rolled out Android updates that default a lot of battery killing AI features to "on" even on older devices, dramatically reducing their battery life. This may have been an attempt to boost sales of new phones, or it may be that Google thinks the AI features are so compelling that they will drive new purchases. - Apple has continued its practice of small, steady improvements to iOS, but has also dramatically increased the price of the phones. I had to chuckle when I realized I spent $1K on my last iPhone. Wow. I'd argue that the incredible Moore's law-like growth of mobile technology has actually held back a lot of innovation, and now that the platforms are more mature we'll see bigger investment in platform technologies that were risky before when the target devices two years out were largely unknown. Apple has still shied away from trying to defend its market share by entering the low end market. Like Github's decision (far too late, after Bitbucket nearly caught up) to offer unlimited private repos, Apple will eventually enter the low end market, but only after its lunch starts to be eaten by competitors. What happens when new big budget production apps don't prioritize iPhone by default as the first platform to launch on? Apple has no strategy to deal with this, and has neglected its development tooling substantially. This is basically the position Microsoft was in (and a nearly identical strategy) right before it took its own nose dive. Apple should: - Release a $199 iPhone as quickly as possible, and a $199 iPad also. - Team up with Facebook to make React-Native a first class citizen for iOS development, even if this is a hostile fork and a blessed version released directly by Apple. - Institute some programs (battery replacement, etc.) that show that the devices are the only one anyone would ever consider buying. - Work with software vendors to create apps that actually do require the latest hardware features and the newest phones. Most apps do not need these. - Make the devices fully waterproof so I can throw mine in the dishwasher once in a while to get it clean. - Create car radios that are "CarPlay Only" that can be retrofitted into vehicles that didn't ship with one. - Release a version of OSX that works (and is supported on) Intel NUC hardware.

GeekyBear 8y ago

Giving people on other platforms the tools they need to allow them to purchase content directly from Apple has been around since the iTunes Store and iPod first made an appearance for Windows. It continued with Apple Music on Android, and I don't see any difference in Apple's strategy here today. Apple is moving into video subscriptions and wants to make sure the broader market can purchase their content.

NicoJuicy 8y ago
And people who don't have an iDevice, probably won't buy a service from them. Because when you have an iDevice, you are a first-class civilian. Nobody wants to be a second-class civilian. My 2 cents, so a personal opinion. Would appreciate disclosing if you have a "iDevice" or not, if commenting :). I don't have one now, did buy the 3GS when it came out. Edit: as I thought. Downvotes and no comments :). Nobody obviously remembers iTunes on Windows...
- baxtr 8y ago
  Well, your comment feels negative and not balanced. I think readers on HN like balanced views. I guess you knew ;-) PS: I do
  - NicoJuicy 8y ago
    Not all comments can be positive, didn't knew this was a requirement. I hope you don't read the comments when Google has there next privacy related topic... My view was balanced, based on experience of the past. I had no Apple warranty/support when there seemed to be a iPod hard drive bug. iTunes was a requirement for iPhone and hell. My desktop was no Apple, I felt like a second class citizen. Ps. You didn't argue why my comment was false. I like second opinions. Which is why we are here, seeing another perspective or learning something new. I guess you knew :) But perhaps I'm just here a bit longer than you ;)
    - baxtr 8y ago
      I guess you are! ;-)

onetimemanytime 8y ago

Well, Apple reached $1 Trillion in market cap in 2018. Odds were that the only way was down...you can't keep growing at 20% qtr to qtr forever, or you'd own the world. Add the fact that today's smartphones do 99% of what people want and new ones are not that much better to justify spending $1000 on them. Add Android competitors from all over the world and you have a very profitable Apple, but not one growing like a "startup." Cheaper iPhone? Maybe, but the $500 iPhone would way worst than a $500 Android one made by others so...

Marsymars 8y ago
> you can't keep growing at 20% qtr to qtr forever, or you'd own the world. Yeah, a lot of people don't intuitively get this; but any growth above GDP growth is some part of the pie you're taking away from someone else.
- deleted 8y ago
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skh 8y ago

When the ability to make books for iBooks came out I was excited. I would like to write a math textbook with embedded videos in it. I was about to explore doing this in iBooks but then I realized that I would be limiting my audience to those with Apple devices. I abandoned the idea. I buy digital books from Amazon and not Apple because I know that Amazon will make its books available on any device. As far as I know iBooks are not available on non-Apple devices. Why would someone lock themselves in? If they made their digital services device agnostic I’d buy from them.

Paianni 8y ago
Amazon could kill support for any platform at any time if they wish. If I get any eBooks at all I want them to be in an open standard (e.g ePub) with no DRM whatsoever.
- skh 8y ago
  That is certainly true. But given the choice between Amazon or Apple when it comes to digital content I choose Amazon for the reasons given. Maybe they'll lock things down but I doubt it.
- chipotle_coyote 8y ago
  I definitely prefer that. Amusingly, most of my DRM-free ebooks are in Apple Books, because it's become a really great reader and it's trivial to get "outside" books into it.
- EdwardCoffin 8y ago
  And they have a history of doing this. Before they had the Kindle, they sold Adobe digital editions content, and after they made the switch they retired the Adobe digital edition license servers. I lost an ebook I desperately wanted when they did this. They didn't send a warning about the upcoming retirement either, despite the books being registered to email addresses which they could easily have sent alerts to.
  - nanoseltzer 8y ago

agumonkey 8y ago

When hardware slows to sell you ramp up services ?? better make more interesting phones and laptops and accept the end of growth rather than dilluting your spirit into chasing revenue

14 8y ago

I would love to see Apple move towards a truly modular phone. Just broke my screen. If I could walk into a retail store and get the screen module I would have done so right away. Now I have to go on eBay order and wait hoping I can survive with a cracked screen until it arrives. If anyone could do a modular phone it would be apple.

jmull 8y ago
The problem with a modular phone (no matter who makes it) is there are big design tradeoffs. To increase the modularity, especially from an end-user perspective, you have to give up some combination of size, cost, power, battery life, water-resistance or other features. It just probably isn't worth it, especially for the case of a partially damaged device where there are probably better solutions... Like a "loaner" program or 2-hr on-site repair for most repairs. These would increase the cost of repair (or repair insurance like Apple Care)... that's a tradeoff in its own right, but at least it doesn't impact your day-to-day usage of the device.
- DonHopkins 8y ago
  The Novation Apple-Cat II was the last truly modular Apple phone. You could plug in your favorite stylish handset with a standard connector, and easily replace the screen with any TV set or monitor of your choosing. https://apple2history.org/history/ah13/#attachment_1622 https://apple2history.org/history/ah13/#attachment_1622
  - jmull 8y ago
    That’s beautiful. I just set up a home office and I’m thinking I need to get one of these and figure out how to set it up as my office phone somehow.

shmerl 8y ago

It started crumbling when Apple joined Alliance for Open Media. Since they were obnoxiously anti free codecs in the past, it was surprising to see Apple there.

chipotle_coyote 8y ago

This is not about "cracking the walled garden"; we're comparing, well, not apples and oranges as much as Apples and Netflixes. This is about laying the groundwork for Apple's new video service -- the question was always whether they wanted to use it as a way to sell overpriced TV pucks, like they've traditionally done with their services, or it was going to be its own thing. they wanted to have everywhere. If you're surprised that they're choosing "have it everywhere," it's probably because you haven't been following the mounting tidbits of Hollywood noise about the original content being produced for Apple. We're not talking about Carpool Karaoke anymore. We're talking new shows from J.J. Abrams, Steven Spielberg, Oprah Winfrey, Ron Moore, Damien Chazelle. We're talking about new children's programming with Peanuts and Sesame Street. Shows starring Jennifer Aniston, Steve Carrell, Chris Evans, Reese Witherspoon, Aaron Paul, Jason Momoa. A series based on Isaac Asimov's Foundation. The point is, there is serious firepower happening here, to the point where it's pretty clear this is not "service as adjunct to hardware." This is Apple establishing an actual entertainment division.

CharlesW 8y ago
This is excellent insight, chipotle_coyote. The article is a poor take. For anyone who might not be aware of the history, Apple media products have always extended outside of the "walled garden". QuickTime appeared on Windows in 1991, iTunes for Windows was introduced in 2003, and Apple Music has been available on Android since 2015. AirPlay has been supported by 3rd-party devices for quite some time (close to a decade. IIRC).
jagger27 8y ago
This is the correct analysis. If you have any doubts that Apple can pull something like this off, you don't have to look very far. Right from the early days of the iPod Apple had the biggest players on the scene on board: Jimmy Iovine in that case. Apple is a much more powerful company than it was then and I see it as very likely they'll pull off a Netflix-sized coup.
lordnacho 8y ago
Then the player to watch for would be Disney. Huge, long history in the area, Mickey Mouse knows everyone in the entertainment business. Even though Apple has a gigantic pile of cash there's a real question as to whether they can actually make money this way. One could question whether you can just hire a bunch of famous movie people and then have a movie empire. I'm looking forward to the fight though. There's a good case that we're currently in one of the most productive eras in storytelling, mainly thanks to these titans clashing.

tech_tuna 8y ago

What drives me crazy is the Jobs idol worship. Assuming that if he were alive that Apple wouldn't still have challenges with its platform roadmap. He might have come up with some other/better ideas but it's not like he didn't fail and produce plenty of duds too. I have never been an Apple fan but I'll say this, they generally treat their customers far better than the competition. You'll never go to an Android or Microsoft store (the former doesn't really exist I know) and get the kind of service that Apple offers. I'll never forget the time I went to the Apple store and returned a used laptop battery I bought off of Amazon. It was painless and immediate. My wife loves Apple and for her and for this level of service, I'm happy to continue supporting her having an iPhone, a Macbook, etc.

Krasnol 8y ago
Funny you mention the store when it's been in the news for their repair ripoffs.
- tech_tuna 8y ago
  Ahh, well like I said I'm not much of an Apple fan, I haven't had to do a return/repair there for a while.
  - Krasnol 8y ago
    Just be careful if they tell you that the repair is too expensive and you should just buy a new item. Check with a free repair shop first.
Fnoord 8y ago
> I have never been an Apple fan but I'll say this, they generally treat their customers far better than the competition. It took a considerable amount of time until Apple admitted design flaws in iDevices (iPhones and Macbooks recently). Antennagate, Bendgate, Batterygate, the list goes on. I'm typing this on a MBP where the coating went kaboom.
- 8y ago