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BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020
- vinhboy 9y agoThis has been said many times, but it feels like all the manufacturers colluded to make EV cars extremely ugly and undesirable. Prime example being the BMW i3. Of all the nice looking cars they have in their line up, one has to wonder why they went with an i3. Put that same capability in a 3-series and it would have been a different story.
- paublyrne 9y agoThe i8 was released the same year as the i3. Is that ugly or undesirable?
- iticu 9y agoRRP: From £112,000 That's pretty undesirable.
- throwaway84742 9y agoAnd also not fully electric, so there are three times as many things that could break.
- pkulak 9y agoUndesirable because of the price.
- xiphias 9y agoi8 is a hybrid car with a very small electric range and small cargo space.
- sschueller 9y agoI don't think the i3 is ugly and I wouldn't mind having one if I could aford it.
- tortilla 9y agoI think it looks ugly-handsome. The looks have actually grown on me. I've been checking out the off-lease used ones. In my area, they've been selling for $15k-$20k USD (years: 2014-2015). https://phoenix.craigslist.org/search/sss?sort=date&query=bmw%20i3&srchType=T https://phoenix.craigslist.org/search/sss?sort=date&query=bm... https://www.carvana.com/search?SortBy=LowestPrice&models=fr&page=1 https://www.carvana.com/search?SortBy=LowestPrice&models=fr&...
- dawnerd 9y agoYou can get i3s surprisingly cheap. Problem is they're older and have pretty poor range. But if that doesn't matter to you, way cheaper than many new low-end cars. Examples: https://www.autotrader.com/cars-for-sale/vehicledetails.xhtml?listingId=472612104&zip=97078&referrer=%2Fcars-for-sale%2Fsearchresults.xhtml%3Fzip%3D97078%26startYear%3D1981%26sortBy%3DderivedpriceASC%26incremental%3Dall%26firstRecord%3D0%26endYear%3D2019%26modelCodeList%3DBMWI3%26makeCodeList%3DBMW%26searchRadius%3D0&startYear=1981&numRecords=25&firstRecord=0&endYear=2019&modelCodeList=BMWI3&makeCodeList=BMW&searchRadius=0&makeCode1=BMW&modelCode1=BMWI3 https://www.autotrader.com/cars-for-sale/vehicledetails.xhtm... https://www.autotrader.com/cars-for-sale/vehicledetails.xhtml?listingId=478734533&zip=97078&referrer=%2Fcars-for-sale%2Fsearchresults.xhtml%3Fzip%3D97078%26startYear%3D1981%26sortBy%3DderivedpriceASC%26incremental%3Dall%26firstRecord%3D0%26endYear%3D2019%26modelCodeList%3DBMWI3%26makeCodeList%3DBMW%26searchRadius%3D0&startYear=1981&numRecords=25&firstRecord=0&endYear=2019&modelCodeList=BMWI3&makeCodeList=BMW&searchRadius=0&makeCode1=BMW&modelCode1=BMWI3 https://www.autotrader.com/cars-for-sale/vehicledetails.xhtm...
- weinzierl 9y agoWhat puts me off are the narrow wheels. I know they are necessary but they give the car an almost comical look.
- lazyjones 9y agoApparently they fixed the design a bit, previously (at least here in Austria) you couldn't order one without the fugly blue lining in addition to the 2 main colors.
- tonyedgecombe 9y agoI quite like the i3 and apart from the backup engine it is a remarkably advanced car.
- PopsiclePete 9y agoFirst-gen Leaf was horrid, but this newer one - I would drive one. Even the new Prius has roughly 12% more testosterone. I think they're learning.
- toomuchtodo 9y agoCannibalizing your existing products is a hard sell in an established organization. It's why businesses like Tesla are able to innovate more rapidly. They have no internal combustion product to compete with, and they don't have to save anything for the swim back (succeed or die). EDIT: This isn't restricted to just the auto industry. Consider the need for Lockheed to create their Skunk Works team [1]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skunk_Works https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skunk_Works
- idonotknowwhy 9y agoGattaca reference? :)
- toomuchtodo 9y agoGood catch :)
- mulmen 9y agoI don't see the similarity to the Skunk Works. Lockheed developed the Skunk Works planes in secret because they were... secret planes. The CIA doesn't make a habit of advertising our surveillance capabilities. I see the Skunk Works planes as similar to the Corvette or Viper or Supra or i8 or any other top of the line car. It's something you think of in the back of your mind when you buy a Malibu, Neon, Corolla or 3 Series. Maybe I am blind to some other part of Skunk Works history that you are referring to.
- toomuchtodo 9y agoApologies, I didn't make the connection as well as I would've liked. You either build the innovator internally (Skunk Works), or you let your innovative competitors eat your lunch. Someone with less bureaucracy and incentive to maintain the status quo is going to innovate.
- mulmen 9y agoAh I understand now. Skunk Works was what we in the tech business would call an "internal startup". Yes, I completely agree with that example.
- idonotknowwhy 9y agoThe Audi a3 e-tron looks like any other "normal" Audi
- WhompingWindows 9y agoI don't disagree that so many of the EV's are extremely ugly and undesirable, but don't you think part of that is the inherent limitations of energy efficiency on these vehicles? A lot of it comes down to aerodynamic efficiency for something like a Tesla or Leaf or Bolt. The more aerodynamically efficient you are, the longer your range, thus limiting the range anxiety slightly. Some companies handle this gracefully, like Tesla. Whereas, I feel something like the Prius, Volt, Bolt, Leaf, or i3 deals with the aerodynamics/style poorly. On top of that, these cars may be made to cater to some early-adopter/green person market subgroup. Maybe those traditional makers do not foresee the EV as the top choice, but as a niche and limited scale product? On top of all that, lithium battery packs for EVs are expensive currently, look at all the problems Tesla has been having making theirs over the years. Once the price drops, I think automakers will be able to make less compromises elsewhere, getting better looks, performance, and features at the expense of pure efficiency.
- pedasmith 9y agoI've owned a leaf for some time as the family second car. Except for long trips, it's the one car we always prefer. Any short drive will be done in the leaf (unless someone's already taken it). Its easily the best car I've owned because it's reliable, cheap to operate, dead quiet, and has a nice amount of get-up-and-go. So no, the current crop of EVs are not undesirable. They may not meet everyone's needs (e.g., in rural Idaho where the nearest town is 40 miles away). But if they do meet your needs, the current set is great.
- athenot 9y agoI've had 2 Nissan LEAF so far and I don't agree that all EVs are "ugly and undesireable". But I do agree that the i3 looks a lot more like a flashy concept car than a production design.
- nfRfqX5n 9y agoporsche mission-E will increase the standard whenever it comes out
- twblalock 9y agoThey want them to look distinctive, because many buyers want everyone else to know they have an electric car. It's the same design strategy Toyota used with the Prius.
- degenerate 9y agoThey end up looking like botched plastic surgery. Every EV outside Tesla is an abomination.
- sgustard 9y agoBoth this comment and the parent are clearly false; the e-Golf looks just like a gas Golf.
- swagasaurus-rex 9y agoRight, I'd recognize a tesla because it 1) a good looking car that draws my eye and 2) has no front grill. Nothing fancy about it.
- rwbt 9y agoI'm not sure if you know how innovative the BMW i3 is. They decided to go for an entirely different manufacturing process using Carbon Fibre instead of traditional steel stamping and it's entire supply chain is built on renewable energy. That's a big commitment on BMWs part. Alas, the market didn't think of it the same way. The i3 might not be a looker but it's probably one of the most innovative cars ever produced in recent history. Horace of Asymco fame did an entire series on the i3 in his Asymcar podcast.
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- Brakenshire 9y ago> Alas, the market didn't think of it the same way. The i3 might not be a looker ...from an American perspective. The i3 doesn't sell much in the US, but is I think the second highest selling EV in Europe at the moment, people here apparently don't have any problem with the way it looks.
- jpm_sd 9y agoIt's also super comfortable inside, compared to the Leaf or the Bolt.
- Systemic33 9y agoIn Copenhagen it's the only DriveNow car available, and I must admit that although I am a petrolhead, the i3 grew on me. What might look silly from the outside is an unparalleled experience in accelleration on the inside. Only Tesla's, motorcycles and proper sport cars can match the 0-50 km/h (which is everything you care about in a city commute).
- varjag 9y agoQuite sure e-Golf, Leaf, the electric Kia all a good match.
- ploxiln 9y ago
- lttlrck 9y agoWhy would they re-engineer the the 3-series platform around an electrical drivetrain and make it look exactly the same? Besides costing an inordinate amount of money, if they did it'd be completely anonymous and if it turned out not so great compared to a standard 3-series (handling, weight, performance) it would tarnish the entire line-up.
- venomsnake 9y agoWhen you make loss at every vehicle sold, you don't really want to make them attractive purchases ...
- imtringued 9y ago>This has been said many times, but it feels like all the manufacturers colluded to make EV cars extremely ugly and undesirable. Yeah sure. VW takes their ICE models and equips them with an electric motor and battery. The reason why it doesn't sell is that it costs more than 2 times as much as the ICE model and EVs have an extremely low range. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OczqMbWB63I https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OczqMbWB63I These things are getting better every year. The latest e-golf already has twice the range of the first model at the same pricetag. In 2020 the range of the egolf will probably reach more than 300 miles and it's cost will go down. Battery costs apply to every car company equally except luxury car manufacturers. It may look like collusion from the eyes of a conspiracy theorist but it's simple economics: EVs are too expensive. Tesla gets a free pass nothing is "too expensive" in the luxury market.
- sweden 9y agoTeslas are not expensive considering the competition in its own price range. The reason Tesla started with a luxury car is because they are a new company without the same resources and manufacturing experience as the already established car companies, so anything they built, it would be very expensive anyway. There is really nothing preventing from the established car manufacturers from selling a cheap electric car, the reason they don't it's simply because their businesses is not geared towards selling non-ICE cars. Electric cars are much more simpler than normal ICE cars. ICE cars are basically a bunch of controlled tiny explosions and those explosions need to be kept in check so there is a lot of nuances and engineering aspects that can simply be skipped on a electric car.
- jes5199 9y agohonestly I think that the current generation of gasoline-powered cars are the ugliest that have ever been made
- mulmen 9y agoThere are rumors of an all-electric 3 series. I assume the i3 drivetrain would not have been feasible inside a 3 series and scaling it up would have made the 3 far too expensive to be practical. The i3 is a BMW Prius essentially. Think of it like a modern Isetta. In that context I think it actually looks very nice. At least it doesn't have love handles.
- rhizome 9y agoI love both the i3 and i8 and would love to own both. I imagine one factor in not putting i3 guts in a 3 series is that the i3 is about 2/3 the size and weight of an F30.
- marcell 9y agoFor all the crap Tesla gets, this shows why they are so necessary. Switching to electric car production is a huge disruption for the existing auto industry. It basically eliminates the dealer service revenue, and turns the supply chain upside down. I doubt they would be making any effort in electric cars if the threat of Tesla did not exist. Even as it is, they are dragging their feet.
- sschueller 9y agoWhy would it need to destroy the dealer network and the right to repair your own car? Only because Tesla runs their business like a software house doesn't mean the others need to follow suit. The German car makers also make gas powered vehicles versions of some of their fleet which are quite different from gasoline cars. What takes time is building the facilities and technology to create reliable and serviceable electric vehicles.
- syncsynchalt 9y agoElectric cars have an order of magnitude fewer parts than an ICE car. This ripples all through an established automaker's revenue and production models, from service contracts, supplier partnerships and agreements, dealer networks, warehousing and fulfillment, and so on. There is probably a lot for an established automaker to untangle, some of which they'll be sued for if they try to follow Tesla's route. With that said I don't think it's the reason BMW is not ready to mass produce electric, and I take them at their word in the article. If you're going to break into the electric market it's going to take a lot of money to shoulder past the three marques that got there first (Tesla, Nissan, Toyota).
- toomuchtodo 9y agoThe dealer network is an unnecessary middle man acting as a parasite extracting value from the system. You can enforce the right to repair through legislation without dealers. > What takes time is building the facilities and technology to create reliable and serviceable electric vehicles. The battery supply chain is the hardest part, but EV powertrains are so much more simple than an internal combustion powertrain. There is very little maintenance required on an EV drivetrain as well. That's why Tesla is warrantying their Semi drivetrains for a million miles.
- ChuckMcM 9y agoGM reached the same conclusion when it built the EV-1. I expect that there are tremendous forces inside a company that push back on the sort of radical change that electric cars represent. The difference between then and now is Tesla. I wonder if anyone asked BMW if they were given the opportunity to mass produce the Model 3, if they would have the same opinion. As for looks, the i8 looks pretty nice. It is apparently going to be available in an electric version this year.
- maxerickson 9y agoTo be fair to GM, batteries improved a great deal since the EV-1. I know there is a crowd of people that are enthusiastic about the EV-1 and think GM killed it, but I'm pretty sure GM had a closer look at whether they could profitably produce them than the enthusiasts.
- toomuchtodo 9y agoGM could've handed the EV-1s over to the owners instead of crushing them.
- jarito 9y agoThey really couldn't. If I remember correctly, US law requires that a dealer provide replacement parts for publicly sold vehicles for 10 years. If you have a small run of cars with very custom parts like the EV-1, the cost of maintaining that capacity is likely prohibitive, so you kill them.
- maxerickson 9y agoThat's not really the right way to phrase that. I'm pretty sure they didn't crush cars that someone else owned. I wonder if they had offered them for sale at prices that would cover their parts obligations if that would have gone over well.
- toomuchtodo 9y agoGM would only lease them, not let you purchase. When they repossessed them at the end of the lease, they would not let you purchase them; they then proceeded to crush any that were not sent to museums. http://electrifyingtimes.com/ev1_crushed.html http://electrifyingtimes.com/ev1_crushed.html http://electrifyingtimes.com/ev1crush.html http://electrifyingtimes.com/ev1crush.html
- BadassFractal 9y agoGreat, more opportunity for Tesla to scale up and eat their lunch. Innovator's dilemma at work.
- kazen44 9y agoThe problem is, tesla is not a car manfucturer. They make a tiny amount of cars compared to the masses that BMW, VW and the likes produce. Also, tesla has an enourmous fault tolerance compared to these guys, not to mention they produce cars which are quite more complex. You cannot afford to "patch up" cars if you are producing thousands a week, that would make you run out of money very quickly.
- this_user 9y agoGiven their repeated failure to reach their target on production numbers for the Model 3, their lack of experience in mass production really seems to be the problem. The question then becomes whether Tesla can figure this out before traditional car companies catch up to them in terms of technology. If they do manage to capture the EV mass market with the Model 3, the others will likely be in trouble.
- Robotbeat 9y agoThe original target for the Gigafactory was 500,000 cars per year by 2020. They have a pretty good chance of actually exceeding that. The increased the aggressiveness of their own schedule. If they hadn't, we'd either be marveling at the speed of their scale-up. So, it gives their competitors ability to point and laugh a little bit longer while avoiding investing in EV ramp-up.
- dangrossman 9y agoI don't think there's any "collusion" or other conspiracy to hold back electric vehicles, I think what BMW said is objectively true. Lithium batteries have cost too much in the past decade to put them into more than luxury cars or negative-profit compliance cars. Supply chains don't appear overnight. LG Chem, Samsung SDI, AESC/NEC, BYD, Foxconn, etc have been building factories and securing raw materials for many many years to have the capacity to sell car manufacturers enough batteries for a few million cars a year by the end of the decade. The price per kWh still makes the battery in a car like the Chevy Bolt a $8000 part, which means you're never going to make a $15K car with one inside. That price has been dropping year over year, and around 2020 is when it'll be cheap enough to make cars in the price range people actually buy them that have big batteries inside.
- athenot 9y agoIt's also not helping that oil is relatively cheap at the moment.
- rootusrootus 9y agoThat might very well continue to be a theme. Every time there is a significant tick upwards in EV usage and a corresponding drop in demand, the price of oil drops significantly. It's extremely sensitive to fairly small changes in demand.
- gambiting 9y agoYep, especially since those companies really don't start with "we'll build a line that can assemble 100 cars a week and then work from there" like Tesla did - it's either a line that can assemble 10k cars/week, or nothing. And if the supply for whatever component isn't there yet to support that capacity, then it's not going to happen.
- kazen44 9y agoThis is usually the case. Retooling an assembly line is a ton of work, and NOT producing at scale is impossible for modern, highly automated car factories like VW, Mercedes or BMW own. Producing 100 cars is simply not possible in these factories, because it would mean massive losses to the factory owner. Also, car manufacturers do not want one supplier for a part, they want several. Mostly as a backup and also to make sure they are not under any price fluctuations because they have more leverage over the parts supplier. Making cars is a very, very thin margin bussiness, especially with cheaper cars like the toyota aygo, fiat panda etc. Minutes of downtime in a factory could mean having to sell a ton of cars at a loss to make up the cost.
- twblalock 9y agoThat's less than two years away. I don't know how long it normally takes to ramp up production for a new car model, but it doesn't seem too bad to me.
- kazen44 9y agofrom anecdotal experience (my father actually designs and architectures car factory assembly lines for a living), it usually takes around 1 to 5 years, depending on the amount of work involved and what kind of car is produced.
- mtgx 9y agoThey're also subtly saying you should ignore the Model 3 being shipped in 2018 and 2019. You should really wait for the "real" (read: our) EVs in 2020 and later.
- skybrian 9y agoFolks, two years is not very long. The optimistic take on this is "wow, we might get mass production of electric cars in two years? Great!" How long does it take to design and build a car factory, anyway?
- Robotbeat 9y agoThis is a very good point. But I will see if BMW actually does mass produce EVs. It's not that expensive. If you can afford $10,000-$20,000 over the life of a car in fuel (plus a few thousand in oil changes and brake jobs), you can afford a $7500 battery. Especially since that pulls thousands of dollars worth of complexity out of the drivetrain.
- gizmo385 9y agoI think the issue is that it's $7500 in one transaction if a battery goes bad, versus the cost of fuel which is spread out over the lifetime of the car.
- Robotbeat 9y agoBatteries can be repaired, just like an engine. And the battery rarely goes immediately bad. But I think this isn't the main issue, as cars already have to deal with the same problem of being totalled.
- HeyLaughingBoy 9y agoA car being totalled is covered by insurance. A car whose engine blows up outside the warranty period is covered by its owner's paycheck.
- Robotbeat 9y agoBut as noted by another user, batteries come with long warranties. (100k miles, sometimes)
- ebbv 9y agoBaloney. I've been driving my Nissan Leaf for almost 4 years. Nissan has sold 300k Leafs. The Chevy Bolt is doing great. The Tesla Model 3 has a multi-year long waitlist. BMW and some other manufacturers are being slow to adopt EVs because they aren't as profitable right now. So they'd rather keep milking the ICE cash cow as long as they can. They also know that if they seriously offered competitive EV alternatives, people would buy them. Why offer an EV version of a 3-Series with a smaller profit margin than an ICE model with a bigger one until they absolutely have to? That's what it comes down to. The good news is they don't have a lot of time left to keep this b.s. up, but don't believe their lies about EVs. They are here, you can buy them, they are great.
- Fins 9y agoThey are quite cool, but not great for everyone (as in the majority of world's population that BMWs and VWs of the world are targeting). Even living in SV I wouldn't buy a Tesla even if I wanted to -- nowhere to charge it at home, and a bit of a walk to the nearest charger from work. And why should BMW et. al. sell something that isn't profitable? They aren't Tesla and can't just burn through capital. On the other hand, when it does become profitable I somehow think they will have something just as good out, it's not like Tesla had some incredible magic tech that nobody else does. And at least an electric BMW would not have a build quality of a beaten up Yugo like Tesla does.
- williamstein 9y ago2020 is pretty soon!
- devy 9y agoFWIW, according to an inside EV journalist friend of mine, Harald Krüger's comment is a reference for Samsung high density cells 2019 availability for a doable price that delivers 200+ miles range. [1] [1] https://insideevs.com/samsung-sdi-from-130-whkg-to-250-whkg-by-2019-and-300-whkg-in-≈2020/ https://insideevs.com/samsung-sdi-from-130-whkg-to-250-whkg-...
- tannhauser23 9y agoI mean that doesn't sound that bad? 2020 is only two years away.
- reubenswartz 9y agoThis has a lot to do with culture. Microsoft had a mockup of an e-reader before the Kindle, but the powers that be in the company insisted that it should run Windows (not out of malice, but because that's how they saw the world.) When Bezos, who, at the time, ran a giant bookstore, started his Kindle project, he put them on a secret team in a different building. Car companies are run by people who love engines that burn gas. The notion that electric vehicles might be something more than compliance nightmares, that they might actually be better cars than gas-powered vehicles is foreign. It's like the Microsoft execs saying "of course the e-reader should also be able to open spreadsheets and what-not." Meanwhile, the Kindle is better as an e-reader because they started from the ground up. Same thing with Tesla. (With whom, none of these companies would be talking about going electric.) They started from the ground up. If BMW wanted to make money on electric vehicles, Tesla has proven that you can sell an $80-$100K+ electric car (with a ~$50K interior) with profitable unit economics. I'm pretty sure an electric 7-series would sell like hotcakes, and make money. Instead, you get the i3, which some people love, but it's certainly an acquired taste, and the 3 series e, which I drove recently-- it has about 11 miles of electric range. ;( If they just made it all electric, I'd buy one tomorrow at the already high 3-series prices. But the culture isn't there yet...
- davewritescode 9y agoI think you’re way oversimplifying the situation. BMW isn’t anything like Microsoft. It’s important to remember that, if you count hybrids, BMW already sells more electrified cars than Tesla and the vast majority of them at a more affordable price point than Tesla (the i3 is a pretty good value). BMW sells a ton of cars and has made pretty good progress on the electric front. They’re just not a hype machine like Tesla.
- erikpukinskis 9y agoHype aside, we can say for certain that Tesla is _trying_ to ramp to five figure weekly production. The evidence we’ve seen is the Gigafactory, and Tesla’s official (legally binding) production plans. I haven’t seen any evidence that BMW or anyone other than perhaps Nissan, is currently trying to ramp production to 10k weekly. It’s not that I don’t think any of these cars are serious about the ramp—surely at least one is. There’s just no evidence any specific one is serious about it, besides vague “we’re serious about it” statements.
- geff82 9y agoJust as a reminder: it is now year 21 after Prius.
- waynebaswell 9y agoTesla shareholders are effectively funding R&D for BMW/Honda/Toyota/GM/Ford etc.
- swagasaurus-rex 9y agoThere's a sizable number of shareholders that are happy to be doing so; an electric world to them is better than an ICE one.
- stephengillie 9y agoToyota's Hybrid Synergy drive was patented in 1969, and in use 6 years before Tesla was founded. (10 years before Musk was on the scene.) The drive is available in numerous models, including plug-in hybrids. These cars only perform better with more batteries added. Over the long term, it's interesting to ponder removing the ICE entirely and put a battery pack in its place.
- pretendscholar 9y agoUniversities and by extension the rest of society funded the R&D for Tesla. Why do Tesla fans have such a persecution complex?
- ThoAppelsin 9y agoAs an outsider, I forecast that in Europe the demand for the gas guzzling cars will be on a sharp decline in not more than a year. BMW and any other car company that are reluctant in adapting to the future, will be troubled economically for offering units that will not anymore be demanded. I mean, really, who would buy the old tech (combustion engine) when even the manufacturer itself (BMW) announces that they are soon (in 2 years) to be obsolete? Cars are expensive and not supposed to be such a short-term investments. They will have to export all their inventories produced in those 2 years to less humanitarian countries like mine, where hardly anybody considers gas emissions as a problem for us to act upon, and government does not promote EVs by any means. It is only logical for them to regard such countries as a market to dump their previous-gen technologies.
- RivieraKid 9y agoI can assure you this won't happen in a year. For most people it's a worse and more expensive product.
- rcxdude 9y agoIndeed. The car industry seems to be committing to it but it's unclear the market will swallow it.
- dmode 9y agoEven if they mass produced an EV, I still wouldn't buy one from them. Reason - 1. they will nickel and dime customers like crazy and charge for LED lights, 17" wheels, CarPlay subscription 2. iDrive is a relic from 90s, an archaic infotainment systems 3. 3 series drivability is no better than a Honda at this point. I used to own a e92, but F30 is a joks 4. Awful dealer network 5. They probably won't invest in a charging network
- dogma1138 9y ago2020 is a 1 year and 8 months away if were talking BMW scale of mass production this is actually great news.
- zupzupper 9y ago2020 is only 2 years from now.
- downandout 9y agoTo be fair to BMW, and I’m not being facetious here, Tesla production isn’t economically viable either - and they’re probably further ahead than anyone. They lost $2.24 billion in 2017, with no end to the losses in sight. BMW is just being smart.
- marricks 9y agoI feel like every gas automaker has a vested interest in saying electric cars are not viable until X years out in the future. Perpetually. They're making money now on the current system, not much incentive to do anything besides look like they're trying to be more efficient whilst moving just quick enough to hit efficiency standards.
- simonsarris 9y agoThe majority of car-makers are Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) expertise shops, plus a design arm, plus a manufacturing arm. Most farm out the design and manufacture of the other components (suspension, brakes, seats, airbags, etc). Every electric car that Ford or BMW sells is the loss of a sale of a higher margin ICE car. Because of this, none of them have an incentive to switch unless some outside force makes them, or they see a huge percentage of customers demand electric and only electric. It's not just culture or stubbornness. These companies simply don't want to replace their high margin ICE cars with fairly-invested expertise and tooling, with a lower margin car that will, almost at best, just 1:1 replace the sale of a higher margin ICE car. So they'll have "options" here and there, but they are going to wait and see for at least half a decade before they commit to anything like meaningful production numbers, a charger network, etc.
- Animats 9y agoThat's about right. The 2019 models will be already almost locked in. An electric for the 2020 model year is ambitious. At the rate Tesla is screwing up, BMW might hit 5000 units a week before Tesla does.
- volgo 9y agoThat's strangely worded headline. "Not viable until 2020"? I see it more as "as soon as 2020." Do people not realize that's like 2 years away? If we can start mass production of electric cars by then, that'd be amazing
- laichzeit0 9y agoI assume for some people, e.g. the type of person that would literally sleep in front of an iStore to buy a new iPhone at launch day because waiting an extra week to just walk in during lunch and buy one is “too long” would find 2 years to be an “eternity”.
- znpy 9y ago2020 is not that far.
- xstartup 9y agoInvestors lose hopes for Electric motor and Tesla is unable to fund their project! "Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak." They are obviously going to say this to keep investors from betting their money on Tesla. BMW surely has money from their other class of vehicles to continue funding their electric motor expedition.
- _ph_ 9y agoThis is a bit of a self-fufilling prophecy. It is correct, that battery prices and availability are sinking currently to the point where electric car mass production becomes a reality and 2020 seems a date, where several big manufacturers can present their first generation of true mass-marked electric cars. But the exact timing also depends on the fact that only Tesla tried really hard to bring the electric car to the mainstream. Actually, BMW was pretty early to the game with the i3 - an excellent car which came to market as early as 2013. Certainly not a huge seller at its price, but quite a good electric car. The main problem was the lack of quick iterations, it has gotten one battery upgrade since then, no variations like the rumored i5 came to be. As 2020 is almost around the corner, let's hope that BMW comes out with exciting electric cars. Also VW seems to be set to release a couple of very serious electric offerings in that time frame (I.D, Buzz).
- dmh2000 9y ago2020 is almost here. Doesn't seem like a big deal.
- sunstone 9y agoOk so that would be a year and three quarters from where we are right now. This time frame is a veritable blink of an eye in the planning horizon of a large automaker. It implies that they have everything pretty much designed and ready to go right now and are just waiting for battery prices to drop.