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Shanghai sets population at 25M
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- reacharavindh 9y agoWonder how they decide who the 25M will be... wouldn't such a policy artificially inflate the price of "living there" by jacked up real-estate prices? Now that the supply is stopped and the demand is not..
- kercker 9y agoYou can get a feel from these two articles depicting the expulsion of migrants from Beijing which also has a population limit. Campaign to Drive Out Migrants Slams Beijing’s Best and Brightest(https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/11/world/asia/china-beijing-migrants-tech.html?rref=collection%2Ftimestopic%2FChina https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/11/world/asia/china-beijing-...) Why Parts of Beijing Look Like a Devastated War Zone(https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/30/world/asia/china-beijing-migrants.html https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/30/world/asia/china-beijing-...)
- hkmurakami 9y agoThat's sort of what happens with Beijing car licenses so that sounds about right.
- Top19 9y agoFriendly reminder that China is the biggest bubble in 10,000 years of human history: https://www.crescat.net/crescat-capital-quarterly-investor-letter-q2-2017/ https://www.crescat.net/crescat-capital-quarterly-investor-l... Imagine a country with 1,000 different Enron’s or Countrywide’s that instead of being investigated by the government are getting cover/protection instead. Upcoming movie about this: https://youtu.be/MRm3SYaG7k0 https://youtu.be/MRm3SYaG7k0
- thedailymail 9y agoAs skeptical as I am about predictions on the imminent demise of the Chinese economy (which occur regularly going back at least to Gordon Chang), I'm intrigued to see what an experienced documentary maker like Alex Gibney will add to the discussion. Thanks for posting the link!
- seanmcdirmid 9y agoIn the media, it has been just been Gordon Chang. But China is due for a normal bubble crash, which occur quite frequently in normal economies, but who knows when that will happen. Pro-china people will always interpret crash as collapse to create a red herring against anyone who isn’t bullish on the Chinese economy. Likewise via the opposite for anti-china people. It makes any discussion basically a red herring fight.
- xmly 9y agoTrust, human is the biggest bubble in the history of earth. We all gonna die in another million year.
- seanmcdirmid 9y agoThe biggest bubble is the Big Bang of course. That bubble will eventually collapse and it will be the end of everything (really!).
- meganibla 9y agoChina can take ambitious practical goals like that seriously. The West cannot, the West is problematically irresponsible.
- Fej 9y agoIn the West, we decided that individual liberty is more important than mass control. The Chinese government is corrupt to the core. Do you want that kind of government controlling you?
- goldenkey 9y agoI certainly don't want my organs harvested because I smoked weed on my birthday.
- chipperyman573 9y agoChina kills people for smoking weed https://www.420magazine.com/forums/china/87294-china-marijuana-laws.html https://www.420magazine.com/forums/china/87294-china-marijua... I'm not sure what that was supposed to mean, anyway. America doesn't harvest the organs of convicted citizens.
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- whooshee 9y agoVery interesting, I've never heard anyone in China have their organ stolen by smoking weeds or taking drugs. China may execute drug dealers but not drug users.
- seanmcdirmid 9y agoOrgan harvesting of condemned prisoners continues although China has promised to to stop it multiple times. It’s why china has some of the quickest turn around times for organ transplants even though it has one of the lowest voluntary donation rates.
- olalonde 9y agoThat makes me sad, I like Chinese mega cities and it seems like a "problem" that should solve itself without government intervention.
- wallace_f 9y agoThese kinds of heavy-handed interventions seem to almost always lead to processes of waste and corruption -- ie so who gets to live in Shanghai? That will be decided by bureaucrats and lawyers which opens up cronyism. By contrast, previously the market provided an efficient, free-to-use, and arguably fair system that allocated the opportunity to whoever was willing to pay for it. People will say "but they need to tackle pollution, and congestion," and I'm in the Pigouvian camp that it is more fair and economically efficient to tax externalities themselves (the disease) rather than making heavy-handed and arbitrary rules. Anyways, in China this is not the worst thing their government is doing.
- olalonde 9y agoAgreed. And unfortunately, it's a policy that will heavily enrich current Shanghai real estate owners (most of which are already wealthy) and residents so there won't be much political opposition.
- wonderous 9y agoChina’s policies are confusing, first they wanted to move everyone to the major cities, now the cities are saying they will cap the populations. Anyone know what is going on?
- hktrl 9y agoIf you use a bit of your brain you'll understand. The top tier Chinese cities are completely packed my people and is not easy to live in, yet, anything is much more expensive and the infrastructure are not suitable enough for future expansion. China still have hundred millions people who will move from the farms to the cities in the following years. Those people can't move all in the top tier cities building a nation with 5/6 megacities with 50+ million people. They're trying to make the second tier and third tier cities (10+ million - 5+ million) the place where these people will move and the only way is to block the expansion of the top tier cities
- cycrutchfield 9y agoIs the snark necessary? Does it add anything to this discussion?
- hktrl 9y agoIt's obvious to understand that 1.5 billion people can't be fit in 5 cities. Or you want me to draw it down? The fact is that in this article, there is no news. We all should take it as example to build multiple cities and not concentrate all the services, industries, workers in one or two cities. US and Europe suffer this issue and it's quite obvious. San Francisco, New York, London, Paris, are examples of places where the cost of living is so high that even people who have a proper job can't afford to live. Yet, we still put all the companies and the services in the top cities and we create a new class or poor workers that couldn't even pay a rent to live decently. We like to talk smart, but we act like idiots. I can only see that, at least, in China the trend is different.
- adventured 9y agoThey're in a situation where they need to dramatically slow down debt accumulation, which will slow down economic growth a bit faster than otherwise anticipated. It's a whiplash action, going from the growth the last 20 years (in which people were aggressively encouraged to move into the cities) to needing to strictly control that growth and the correlated debt expansion. Manufacturing stopped net expanding years ago, many of their largest state-corporate manufacturing enterprises are simultaneously loaded to the ceiling with debt and being heavily subsidized to maintain current levels of employment and output. There is wide discussion about local governments being allowed to go bankrupt, because the debt burdens have gotten so extreme: "China Central Bank Official Says Bankruptcy May Benefit the Country" https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-25/pboc-official-says-local-government-bankruptcies-are-needed https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-25/pboc-offi... China's goal, in theory, is to transition increasingly to a services economy, to provide the next leg of its growth, as manufacturing can't provide that. Service economies grow far slower than the type of manufacturing fill-in-the-slack / join the WTO boom they saw from ~1992-2015. They can no longer afford to keep accumulating debt as they have been since 2007. S&P is forecasting another ~75% increase in their total debt position in just the next five or so years, which would push them to... ~550%-600% debt to GDP ratio (possibly worse when counting all the shadow debt), or nearly twice that of the US. It's untenable to say the least. Bottom line: China has to start applying the brakes, and that likely means dramatically slowing the migration into the cities. That migration is unsustainable if China has to slow its debt expansion (which it does). It takes extraordinary perpetual economic expansion to provide enough jobs for all of those people and pay for the infrastructure demands. China's financial reserves haven't kept pace with either their debt or GDP growth, with about 3/4 of those reserves untouchable. Their ability to continue to finance the wild debts that have gone with the local government & infrastructure splurges, is heavily restricted now (if cities like Shanghai or Beijing want to add millions of more people, it'd require continuing to fund all of that while the overall context gets more shaky).
- ksec 9y agoBecause they have learned their lesson with Hong Kong when they cant really control property market and what problems it leads to.
- peteretep 9y agoWhat problems does it lead to in Hong Kong? I'd have thought Hong Kong is one of the most livable cities in China
- cornholio 9y ago> Hong Kong is one of the most livable cities in China If you don't live in the rooftop slums or cage homes, that is. Hong Kong is also one of the most expensive cities in the world.
- dis-sys 9y agountil you need to buy an apartment from those criminal developers. check news, they are selling apartments smaller than a prison cell to new home buyers. this happened when 90% of usable land are intentionally assigned as parks to limit land supply to the market.
- baybal2 9y agoPFFF, that's a joke. Even people who live in the most expensive developments in the island will say that even better dorm quarters in Shenzhen will beat HK's 'upmarket' developments
- ksec 9y agoHere is two recent article from SMCP http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/economy/article/2097715/what-hope-poorest-hong-kong-wealth-gap-hits-record-high http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/economy/article/2097715/w... http://www.scmp.com/business/article/2064554/hong-kong-named-most-expensive-housing-market-world-seventh-straight-year http://www.scmp.com/business/article/2064554/hong-kong-named... No other developed place / cities poses a problem as bad as HK. If you just look at how it compares to Sydney and Vancouver. Housing affordability leads to lots of other social problems. And Social instability is the last thing China wants. It was one reason why I think the recent article on Fouder's salary using data from https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/ https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/ Dont necessary put things in right prospective. The one bed room prices while being cheaper in San Francisco, its Living room is likely bigger then the total size of the one bed room apartment in HK.
- inertial 9y agoGenuinely curious : What's a good alternative to setting a population limit per city ? Having lived in cities that are crumbling under poor infrastructure, unchecked growth, excessive pollution (from vehicles, stuck in endless traffic jams), shortage of water/electricity, I wonder what can be done to fix this. Everyone from across the country wants to migrate to a few big cities that provide good employment. We shouldn't stop them from seeking opportunities but at the same time the local government has to ensure a minimal quality of life for the existing residents. What would be a short term solution (implementable in 1-3 years) that can balance this ?
- nawitus 9y agoAs long as people are migrating, people are voting with their wallets that a city "crumbling under poor infrastructure" etc. is better than whatever place they're migrating from.
- jakubp 9y agoBut people already in that city can't vote with their wallets to stop the immigration.
- Al-Khwarizmi 9y ago
- vsc 9y agoHow did western countries deal with this kind of problem? Or they havent faced anything of such scale till now?
- dis-sys 9y agoShanghai had 13 million in 2004 when I left, moved back last year and there is now 23-24 million people. I can't really name any western city that saw a population increase of 10 million in 13 years.
- walrus1066 9y agoIt took >100 years for them to deal with it. It was often much worse than China now. In the UK, in the 1800's, millions moved to London, and lived in shocking slum conditions. Life expectancy was ~30 years, diseases like cholera killed many, because of overcrowding and poor sanitation. Pollution was awful, As recently as 1952, 10,000 people died in four days in the great smog of London https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Smog_of_London https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Smog_of_London. In summary, it took a long time to address the problem.
- dreamdu5t 9y agoThe US enacted descriminatory and racist immigration policies which they still have now.
- thriftwy 9y agoIn the middle of XX century, small-to-medium sized cities looked like an attractive place. That was unprecedented before and it doesn't look like it's going to repeat.
- danieldisu 9y agoI think we will live a revival of these places, they provide better quality of life in many aspects, and can be very interesting for people who are fed up with the big city.
- thriftwy 9y agoPeople who are fed up with the big city will much more likely prefer mountains or tropical islands or deep lakes, something that most of small-to-medium cities built around an university and a factory just don't have. Also, in the big city people get used to theatres and museums and events. Smaller cities just don't have the density.
- volgo 9y agoThe problem they're trying to solve is city slums, which is common in Asia. I've worked in India before, and every major city (Delhi, Chennai) is filled with massive slums of migrant workers who obviously haven't kept up with the modern development. Without turning this into a pity post and sounding like an uncultured asshole, it was horrifying to see and really broke my heart that people are living in conditions like this. This is very common in SE Asia as well if you look at cities like Manila, Jakarta, etc. It's a tried and failed approach to have "open migration" policies in developing countries and have labor conditions race to the bottom. To a lesser extend, Beijing + Shanghai has this problem as well. I was in BJ 7 years ago (so my experience may be outdated), but there are parts of the old city that still has Hutongs, which are slum like buildings that have largely been vacated but migrant workers have "illegally" occupied. (I put "illegal" in quotes because human beings aspiring for shelter shouldn't be illegal, anyways, off point) The root of the problem is migrant workers moving into cities for slave-like labor and are commonly exploited by local residents and employers. They're offered "jobs" that are way below the legal minimum wage and are often paid under the table. They can't say no because their employers have power over them (threat to report to police, etc). In many sense, "illegal" migrant workers are not that different from "illegal" immigrants. In order to raise the living standards of an entire area, you have to enforce issues like safe labor practice, minimum wage, vacation days, etc. Without heavy hand regulation in a developing countries, these things don't magically come at the kindness of employers. They must be forced. The developed countries all went through this stage much earlier this century (think back on all the activists who died pushing for labor rights in U.S. in early 1900s). When you have a massive population of people who are in dire situations and who don't have anywhere to turn, it's difficult to force employers to raise working standards. It's a difficult issue. On one hand, it's pretty heavy handed and inhuman to tell a migrant worker they're not allowed to live in a city that's part of their own damn country. On the other hand, we don't want cities to race to the bottom with unsanitary and slum like conditions. What's the balance? I've no idea, but I'm glad Shanghai at least understands this is a problem instead of copying other Asian cities that have failed at this
- codeisawesome 9y agoIs there evidence that capping residents “cures” cities of Slums?
- jamesoo8 9y agoPeople should not be curious about such things happened in China since they are controlled by the CCP. Some stupid officers can make all kinds of ridiculous policies, sometimes the basic reason is just to consolidate their regime. The simple reason is that, if the city is too big, it becomes more hard to control for them.
- tcper 9y agoMost of China's city's the man who decides, don't know city develop, the purpose of what they do is simple, to please their superior, for their own career, or what they do is just what they like. Do not think them complicated, reference their small brain, they're not complicated.
- eximius 9y agoI don't trust these numbers. It was thought the undocumented population of Shanghai was this number in 2007 when I lived there.
- walterbell 9y agoIf “excess” people are moved to a second-tier city X miles away, what happens when that city is full - create a third-tier city Y miles away? Will there be a separate transportation network between first-tier cities? Permits/visas to travel between city-states?
- closeparen 9y agoYes. I have friends who are on waiting lists for residence permits in Shanghai, etc.
- walterbell 9y agoIs it a FIFO queue or are there qualification criteria or scoring systems?
- rednerrus 9y agoDallas Fort-Worth?
- dreamdu5t 9y agoClosed immigration policies and immigration quotas are descrimination - plain and simple. They’re a violation of human rights and treating people equally - whether in China or the USA.
- justicezyx 9y agoSure, but how can you legally removes the accumulated wealth from the 1% or 0.1%
- juanmirocks 9y agoI don’t know and so I ask: how much is the Chinese public opinion against pollution affecting if at all the directives of their government? Is there more public concern ?
- mr_spothawk 9y agoIsn't Shanghai an "autonomous" region? I wonder how much this has to do with preventing Shanghai from becoming larger than Beijing.
- bagacrap 9y agoProbably nothing given that the article states Beijing has an even lower target population cap.
- mr_spothawk 9y agothat's what I get for not reading
- mlinksva 9y agoAs there's various discussion of hutongs here, I wonder if anyone can say whether practice of charging for parking to upgrade things like sewers and bathrooms as described in https://www.shoupdogg.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2015/04/Charging-for-Parking-to-Finance-Public-Services-May-15.pdf https://www.shoupdogg.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2015/0... has spread?
- xmly 9y agoThank god, China finally learn something from USA. "American First" -> "Shanghai First". Trump leads the great America to another success just like CCP lead china!
- Iv 9y agoWe need population targets for the world and for countries as well. Once the population stabilizes, growths in productivity will go toward comfort improvement instead of survival of an ever growing population. I can't wait for it. There are almost twice more people on the world now than when I was born. This is crazy.