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China is catching up to the USA, while Japan is being left behind
- oihssovhusvoh 9y agoit's not a race guys
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- visarga 9y agoYes, and there are many researchers outside of companies, that publish in the open. The field will not be locked up to the first arrival.
- mythrwy 9y agoSure it is. The human race :)
- Animats 9y agoYes, it is, in an economy where exports are a huge part of the economy. Fall behind and you're competing with Bangadesh for the T-shirt business.
- conanbatt 9y agoThats not how any of it works. If china came out with a 1 dollar iphone X2, both americans and chinese would be much richer.
- melling 9y agoImagine if it was a race. Say, a matter of national security, national pride, etc. India vs China vs Japan vs the United States vs ... Trillions of dollars invested into research.
- indubitable 9y agoWhen you stop to think why every major nation in the world today spends tens to hundreds of billions of dollars on military spending each and every year, it should be clear that it is. We have all grown up in an era of unprecedented peace, and I think it's easy to take that peace for granted. But that would be unwise. When you look at history since time immemorial people constantly have disagreements on the right path forward. And the group that decides which path is taken is the most powerful group - which is often decided by force. I see no reason to believe that this has changed. But the peace? What has changed is that we've created an international stalemate thanks to nukes. Mutually assured destruction makes military enforcement of will a nonstarter. Consider the very recent comments made by USAF General Kwast a few days ago [1]. He is not concerned about China militarizing space - that is taken as a granted. He is concerned about the militarizing space before we do. In his words: "Militaries will soon work more extensively in the space between the earth and moon. That realm is the next high ground, where nations are straining to gain a strategic advantage." It's not even a question of if there will be another great conflict but rather when will it be. Whenever it is, it's likely that this conflict -like so many before- will be decided not by man, but by the technology of man. [1] - https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/10/usaf-general-steve-kwast-china-in-space-five-times-faster-than-us.html https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/10/usaf-general-steve-kwast-chi...
- ihaveahadron 9y agoChina's the only country with mass numbers of people mostly with good (great?) genes and land comparable to the USA. Also the only country like that, remotely, that doesn't have religion and can make even extremely basic science questions and observations. At this point the only thing I'm doing is deciding how wordy/not wordy I'm going to be to symbolize the appropriate level of wtf, or something.
- ihaveahadron 9y agoHistorically Japan came from China, there is no Japan without China. I'm resorting to super basic literal academic history to communicate here. I'd say that's pretty wtf.
- wiineeth 9y agoThing i love about japan is they think very out of the box compared to others. i don't how their society gets it but it's kind of amazing.
- joaodlf 9y agoThis post goes over science and research, which to me is a consequence to other, "big picture", areas of the Chinese growth. Areas such as economy, geopolitcs and finances. China is no longer a contender - It's the true looming power of the East. And depending on how internal politics play out, it will be interesting to see where exactly China stands in as little as 10-20 years in the future. One thing that strikes me about China is their attitude towards foreign politics - They still want the world to consider them as a "developing country". Sure, it's a gigantic country, both in land and population - There are still many challenges to overcome, but this is now a country with enormous cash reserves, who own a significant lump of US debt, and making truly gigantic strides on all levels of society.
- sillysaurus3 9y agoChina is no longer a contender - It's the true looming power of the East. And depending on how internal politics play out, it will be interesting to see where exactly China stands in as little as 10-20 years in the future. Exactly that: https://i.imgur.com/kjF57Sy.png https://i.imgur.com/kjF57Sy.png https://i.imgur.com/OkOQWkj.png https://i.imgur.com/OkOQWkj.png
- raverbashing 9y agoSeems Japan did not lose only one decade, but 2 decades so far And by the way things go, it seems they froze in time. Nobody moves the country forward Japan’s tech cannibalism saps Abenomics - https://www.ft.com/content/238c993c-427d-11e6-9b66-0712b3873ae1 https://www.ft.com/content/238c993c-427d-11e6-9b66-0712b3873... might need to Google it Some other day I saw people complaining that in Japan they still use a mechanical mouse (not an optical one, the older ones)
- toomuchtodo 9y agoWhat if the Japanese don’t want to move forward and are happy to live out the remainder of their lifespans as is? Progress without purpose is not progress. GDP over quality of life is like measuring your success of curing HIV in a human using bleach. You’ve succeeded, but for what?
- soufron 9y agoThe conclusion is actually quite contrary to the title, and far more interesting: the author uses that example to debunk the idea that more research leads to more innovation and more prosperity. I have been tinkering around the same idea for a while, thinking that the state of a country's democracy matters way more than its research output. I'll quote this article in the future! In his own words: "Does any of it matter? Many people believe, or assume, that great output in terms of research articles should cause economic prosperity and innovation. I have post entitled Does academic research cause economic growth? that makes the contrary point. That is, though China is catching up in terms of scientific output, this may be a consequence of their prosperity: they can now afford to have their very best minds work on producing research articles. It is much easier for rich countries to fund people so that they can publish in Nature. So being rich will allow you to catch up. But Japan shows that you can be a very rich country and choose not to produce many great research articles. In the least, this establishes that you do not need to produce many great research articles to be prosperous."
- dheera 9y ago> I have been tinkering around the same idea for a while, thinking that the state of a country's democracy matters way more than its research output. While I agree with democracy as a whole, I think 0. A thorough understanding of the state of China is needed. In order for democracy to actually work, you need a population that is educated enough to make the right choices for the country. You also need to fight corruption first, or else people will take advantage of the democratic system. In the past 40 years there have been a lot of much higher priority things to the average Chinese citizen than having a fully democratic system. The last thing people want is another period of socioeconomic upheaval and chaos. Stability is the first priority of many. Democracy will come with time and I'm sure everyone wants it, but most people don't want to lose well-being on the road to get there. 1. Democracy isn't the biggest driver of scientific advancement. It's kind of irrelevant. Rather, you need: - capitalism to distribute money to things that people want (China has a booming VC and startup ecosystem now) - government funding for longer-term scientific research that has not yet identified a business model, and a system to distribute that funding to people that are worthy of it (funding is there in China; the distribution system needs improvement) - education that trains the individual to self-learn and nurtures self-exploration rather than rote memorization (work is needed here in China and throughout Asia); education should encourage taking side projects and research seriously, if not more seriously, than classes - good universities with skilled faculty (there are a few world-class institutions in China, but far too few good universities for China's population -- hence the competition) Another issue is what defines progress. We have defined it thus far as GDP. But in the future we need new methods of defining progress. The world cannot just grow indefinitely, and we are hitting environmental and resource constraints in a number of ways already.
- tarboreus 9y agoDoes it seem like "productivity" shouldn't be measured in number of papers? Isn't that how we got ourselves into the reproducibility mess?
- boomboomsubban 9y agoA replication study still needs to publish a paper, that is a separate issue.
- tomkat0789 9y agoAgreed. These couple of sentences deflate the click-baity title a bit: "The report echoes my earlier observations: lots of new countries are become scientific powers in terms of publication output, with China leading the charge. The major claim made by the report is that developed countries continue to dominate in terms of highly cited publications." The trend the article is talking about is China is catching up in terms of publication output. I've heard elsewhere that in Chinese universities things like tenure, promotions etc. are heavily weighted by publication output - perhaps without much respect for the research quality. I could see some fields/journals becoming echo chambers where researchers spam publications without actually making meaningful technical accomplishments. That's probably what we're seeing.
- njarboe 9y agoProfessors in China get cash bonuses for publications in major western journals. The average payment for a Science or Nature paper is $44k and the average university professor makes $8k per year. See [1] for details and other journal payout rates. Imagine if US professors got half a million dollars for publishing in Nature or Science. The gaming going on to get published would be even crazier than it already is. [1] https://www.technologyreview.com/s/608266/the-truth-about-chinas-cash-for-publication-policy/ https://www.technologyreview.com/s/608266/the-truth-about-ch...
- Nokinside 9y ago> Furthermore, the data presented in the paper clearly indicate that countries like China are bridging the gap with respect to how impactful their work is (see Fig. 2 in the report), on top of bridging the gap with respect to the total volume (see Table 1 in the report).
- coliveira 9y agoThis is an enormous exercise in trying to prove that, despite reality, China doesn't matter in research and related areas. It is futile. The results of scientific production are a lagging indicator, and China nowadays produces almost as much research as the US. China is a growing society, with growing life standards, while the US life standards are stagnating. I was once a China doubter, these days are over however. While the US is constantly worried about supporting its oligarchy, China is using all its resources to invest in a better society. While this battle is not completely lost to the US, it seems more and more like the situation that lead the UK to its downfall.
- dionian 9y agoI don't think quantity of research is an important thing to measure
- QAPereo 9y agoIf quantity were the thing, then Kim Jong Il was the greatest author of all time, assuming you discount forum posting, in which case probably some on David Icke's forums takes the prize.
- coliveira 9y agoThe rise of a generation that believes that scientific output is not important, even in a technical field like ours, is an indicator that makes me bearish on the future of the American society.
- gipp 9y agoI think you're misinterpreting his comment. I'm fairly sure he's raising issue with "quantity" of research as a useful metric for scientific strength. China produces massive amounts of research, but is positively inundated with fraud, to a much higher degree than the West, and makes the West's publish or perish mindset look positively relaxed.
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- tritium 9y ago"catching up" and "falling behind" Within the context of this article, the thing gained or lost is capacity for Scientific Research, and the article suggests renaming an NSF report. It is not a statement about "things in general" around the world.
- nihonde 9y agoThe premise of this headline is that the USA is indisputably in the lead and that the winner is whoever catches up the USA. After spending years in Asia, my impression is that there is another game being played entirely, and the USA is merely a player whose ability to interfere in the outcome is being carefully managed. (And the same is true about Russia, incidentally.) I won't be at all surprised if Asia rules the world by the time I'm an old man.
- whathaschanged 9y agoThe same thing was said about Japan.
- changeInDestiny 9y agoDifference is that China has ten times the population of Japan.
- nihonde 9y agoWriting Japan off is another favorite pastime, I notice. What most impresses me about Japan is their ability to weather the doldrums of their current economy, and still have a higher quality of life than Americans do. How well do you think America will fare under similar economic conditions? (You can probably guess what I think.)
- whathaschanged 9y agoI think this entire exercise is conversational bullshit because there is no metric for 'winning'. Quality of life is relative. People prefer different things, that's why those who are able, relocate to somewhere that suits their preferences. Japan benefits greatly from being an island, not having to worry about their national security for decades and a tight immigration policy.
- nradov 9y agoIndeed. I'm old enough to remember the panicky statements by US politicians about how the Japanese were going to destroy our auto industry, dominate the next generation of computers, buy up all our real estate, etc. It never happened, and then the Japanese wrecked their own economy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decade_(Japan) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decade_(Japan)
- sgt101 9y agoFor most of the 20th century the UK did disproportionately well in the metrics of scientific research - Nobel prizes, key articles.. The UK has not had the kind of outstanding economic success that should have accrued to it if these things matter economically. Especially once north sea oil is removed from the calculation.
- konschubert 9y agoMaybe because the upper class and the educated class have abandoned the lower classes. Scientific excellence is not worth very much economically if it does not trickle down into society. This didn't happen in the UK and that's why the economy is suffering.
- sgt101 9y agoIn what way would scientific excellence trickle down?
- ben_w 9y agoSolving problems that poor people actually care about. I’m rich enough I don’t even know what those problems might be.
- konschubert 9y agoSmart teachers being educated by good professors which really understand their field.
- bitL 9y agoUK does well in UK-based/influenced rankings. There is this magic "reputation score" where Oxbridge are near 100% while lacking significantly in other areas comparing to competition; yet due to this magic value are always in top 5. If this is the source of national pride, then good luck competing with China!
- sgt101 9y ago
- partycoder 9y agoI am not impressed. China has been sending students abroad for years, and that was a significant shortcut to the state of the art.
- projectramo 9y agoResearch is an input into productivity, but you need the application of research to actually turn it into productivity. This is a little self congratulatory in HN, but entrepreneurship is the application of research. So you need that to "activate" research. China is catching up not (just) because of research but also because they're applying it.
- thatcat 9y ago>entrepreneurship is the application of research Engineering is applied research, entrepreneurship is one method of funding engineering.
- mfrw 9y agoIMHO, I think it is a good thing as now it implies a knowledge-race (akin to the arms-race). Whatever happens, eventually all humanity benefits from the development.
- subterfudge46 9y ago1. China has more younger population and a market driven ruthless academic system. 2. Slowing birthrates and Ageing population in USA coupled with strong racist immigration policies towards asian in USA is depriving US universities of good quality brains. 3. Good times create weak population. The modern American youth is more worried about inequality and gender fluidity rather than studying laws of thermodynamics and machine learning. US is two steps behind the curve compared to UK. It is a foregone conclusion that unless US radically implements a new pro-Asian immigration system or unless white people in USA get higher birthrates the coming century is going to belong to China/India. Japan has understood this well and signed an agreement with Indian government where over 300K Indian youth will travel to Japan and work there.
- loblollyboy 9y ago`coupled with strong racist immigration policies towards asian in USA ` - Elaborate, please. I was looking at GRE scores the other day out of curiosity (white American) and they have it broken down by country and China, for example, does a lot better than Saudi Arabia. Netherlands does a lot better in reading, than say, Pakistan. Some countries might just have better candidates?
- Darmani 9y agoWith all this talk of publication output, I'd like to see some examples of good research coming out of mainland Chinese universities. In my field (programming languages), I can name one total paper that I liked that came from a mainland Chinese university. It stood out for that reason. A friend in another field (CS theory) complained similarly: massive amounts of shoddy work comes out of China, but nothing worth reading. Meanwhile, China now has a spam journal called "Nature and Science," so you can tell your friends "I have 5 papers in Nature and Science."
- LiweiZ 9y agoWhat you observed is exact how we set the goal and play the game. As a Chinese, I think your observation is very insightful to point to the model/structure of these kind of advance measured by normal ways. But most people follow the normal fact checking measurement. That's one of the powerful way to manipulate people's perspectives by improving on some facts. In the end of the day, we all react to some signals.
- seanmcdirmid 9y agoAh, can I ask what paper it is? I’m in PL, and unless it’s coming out of MSR China, I haven’t seen PL papers that are interesting. China isn’t into PL, though, and it gets better in systems (big data, cloud, whatever is hot these days), there are some good labs with good output (Andy Yao’s algo lab at qinghua). Many of the researchers are foreigners however (just like in the USA). I’m curious about the quality of published work coming out of china in ML. Has anyone who does ML research read recently a paper that came out of china that had something really useful to them in it? I think those are fairly good measures of output (a contribution found useful).
- Darmani 9y agoHi Sean! We met a few weeks ago at OOPSLA. The paper I have in mind is Zhai et al's "Automatic Model Generation from Documentation for Java API Functions" presented at ICSE last year, from Nanjing University. It is arguably more of an SE paper though, and a lot of the authors are at US/Canadian universities; for all I know, she did most of the work in the US. Still, the number of good faculty who come from China is growing; it's only a matter of time before some of them choose to start research groups back home.
- KaoruAoiShiho 9y agoSeems obvious to me that it's because of language. China cares more about rankings so they'll force people to push in english journals (to their own detriment) where they get cited. Most of the world doesn't speak Japanese so japanese papers don't get cited.
- ausvisaissues 9y agoThe problrm is that Japanese journals are less competitive. So, second-rate researchers can continue to publish in these and "work" (i.e., look productive). The biggest problem with Japanese universities is not funding (there is to much), but the old chaff with tenure. Unfortunately old second-rate researchers has a lot of institutional power (and funding).
- lyrachord 9y agoI found that so many people are stupy which cannot think about a question with a bit of intelligence. One of the evilest thing is the argument of orient-west politics. Let's despise them. Most people is just small potato, politics is really matter no you. Just push forward to the future of human being!