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Tesla envy grips Germany’s giants

227 points by Corrado 10y ago

kayoone 10y ago
Tesla needed to have something groundbreaking like the Model S, otherwise they would never have gotten the attention and sales that they got. The germans already had an established business and didn't need to take risks. Also their sales are strong and even increasing, so i don't buy the argument the press is spinning that Audi/BMW/Merc/Porsche are being left behind by Tesla. They have some very impressive technology in the works and Tesla still has to prove that it can be really profitable. Still i love Tesla for what they did and the movement they started.
- krait 10y ago
  The canonical reply from Elon Musk on profitability is that they hope to profitable on a GAAP basis in 2020. Let's see if external investors hang in there long enough to allow this. ( http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-04/as-tesla-gears-up-for-suv-investors-ask-where-the-profits-are http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-04/as-tesla-g... ) It will be very interesting to see what happens to the used Model S prices now that Tesla took away the buyback guarantee for new cars.
  - Retric 10y ago
    Compared to shorter range cars I think they are going to do much better. A 90 mile Nelson leaf is ok, a 60 mile neon leaf on the other hand. A 5 year old model S likely has more range than a new leaf and if it bothers you getting a new battery will drastically boost that range. So, at resale a model S is probably well north of 30k.
- ryuker16 10y ago
  Tesla is eating into their luxury sales: The 70-100K+ car market segment is smaller and the USA/Japanese dominate the lower end. Every rich guy buying a Tesla instead of an Audi or Merc is taking away market share the euro car makers are unlikely to get back. I don't hear many stories of people "upgrading" from a Tesla to an Audi or Merc.
- MarkMc 10y ago
  > Also their sales are strong and even increasing Nokia and Blackberry unit sales rose for 3.5 years after the iPhone debuted. Tesla is making enormous investments in their business. (For example their enormous gigafactory will provide scale advantages). When these investments start bearing fruit the Germans may find it difficult to compete
DaGardner 10y ago
I think this sums the situation up quite well and explains why Mercedes, BMW, etc. have not put a serious Tesla competitor on the streets yet: > We have to earn money at the end of the day though.
- VeejayRampay 10y ago
  But isn't always the game with ground-breaking technologies though? At first you don't make as much money, but you're laying the road for the big thing. And when the revolution begins, you're the one making the big bucks.
  - wott 10y ago
    Not always at all. Also often, the forerunner disappears when other companies jump in at a later, proven, profitable stage of the technology, when both technology and the market are ready for mass production.
    - tonyedgecombe 10y ago
      Or else they just buy the upstart.
    - endymi0n 10y ago
      This. Ever heard of Myspace? Altavista? When making a market, watch out for well equipped and funded upstarts going to get you. Next victims of their own success: Docker.
      - tokipin 10y ago
        I think in those cases, it was a matter of a better-designed, clearer-headed product taking space from a not-so-well-designed product. That's not what would happen here, because Tesla is already the creme de la creme. In fact, Tesla executing so well is the only reason EVs have seen their recent "resurgence" in the first place. And remember that Tesla isn't the first company to make electric cars. I also think people underestimate by a lot how hard making new things is. It's not just a matter of coming in with more money. It's almost deceptive on Tesla's part that the cars seem simple. But if it really were so simple the Model S would already have competition. And when you're talking about someone who has raised a company that lands rockets in the middle of the ocean, competitors are fooling themselves if they think even just a superficial copy is going to be easy. This is something they have to bring their A game to at all levels.
Cthulhu_ 10y ago
I think Tesla will make money regardless of whether the established car companies come up with a good or better car; they're investing heavily in battery technology, and within 5 years, Tesla will be the world leader in that respect, undercutting the competition and managing to buy up most of the world's raw materials for batteries. See it as them becoming the oil industry, instead of the car industry - designs, efficiency, laws etc are fickle and tend to vary a lot, but oil and petrol has remained relatively unchanged for a long time (as far as I can tell). Battery tech could still face a huge revolution though; if Tesla isn't able to acquire that and go with that, they might see themselves out of the battery business very quickly.
- semi-extrinsic 10y ago
  Tesla doesn't really have a big investment in battery technology, Panasonic owns the technology and manufacturing process IP. What Tesla is investing in with the Gigafactory is taking economy of scales to the extreme (Musk has freely said as much publicly). That's not something which is difficult for others to replicate once it's proven to be a profitable venture.
  - qaq 10y ago
    Yep it's easy to replicate provided you don't mind waiting 5-6 years for your copy of gigafactory to be built.
    - kuschku 10y ago
      Or just buying Teslas gigafactory after Tesla goes broke.
      - qaq 10y ago
        I highly doubt that Tesla will go broke but sure that's another option.
- gambiting 10y ago
  The thing is, that while Tesla cars might be the coolest thing on the market, but it won't matter one bit if they run out of money. The question is - can they make themselves profitable before that happens?
semi-extrinsic 10y ago
The money quote: > "I wish we had put that car on the road and not Tesla," confided a senior engineer at Porsche. "We have to earn money at the end of the day though." The article also talks about "how will the German brands win back customers from Tesla?", but really, if you look at cars like the Mercedes S-class, BMW 7 series or the Audi A8, their sales are unchanged or even increasing since 2012 when the Model S was launched. Audi has been setting record sales numbers in the US, which is Tesla's biggest market, for five years straight. So it's a bit hard to argue Tesla has taken many of their customers. Maybe most Tesla drivers were never petrolheads in the first place, and drove a boring station wagon before the Model S came along?
- ff10 10y ago
  I really wonder where those customers come from.
  - semi-extrinsic 10y ago
    There are a few "what did you drive before" threads on the Tesla forums, and it's all over the place, from Hummers to Jaguars to Maseratis to Nissan GT-Rs, but surprisingly many seem to be coming from Prius or a Volvo of some sort.
    - toyg 10y ago
      I wouldn't be surprised by Prius owners going Tesla, the Prius already was the "comfortable progressive" car of choice with its hybrid efficiency, so a Tesla is the natural progression. Volvo has similar brand connotations, making cars for people who care more about features and comfort than status symbol. Hummer, Jaguar and Maserati though, those are further away from the natural "ideological core" of potential Tesla owners.
      - ZanyProgrammer 10y ago
        "Hummer, Jaguar and Maserati though, those are further away from the natural "ideological core" of potential Tesla owners." True, but they are also cars for the affluent, and Teslas, in addition to appealing to people with an enviro-lefty bent, appeal to the affluent.
alimbada 10y ago
They're all full of hot air until they actually deliver a real EV that can compete with the Model S. I saw an article on a Mercedes-Maybach EV concept car the other week which made me roll my eyes. I've always felt concept cars are a silly idea; a waste of talent and resources. Why can't they spend that on creating a real car and delivering it instead?
- ThePhysicist 10y ago
  Does the BMW i series not qualify as real EV? http://www.bmwusa.com/bmw/bmwi http://www.bmwusa.com/bmw/bmwi The range is a little less than what Tesla offers (150 miles), but here in Berlin I see quite a few of them on the road already. Mercedes has a similar model btw: http://www.mercedes-benz.de/content/germany/mpc/mpc_germany_website/de/home_mpc/passengercars/home/new_cars/models/b-class/w242.html http://www.mercedes-benz.de/content/germany/mpc/mpc_germany_... They probably don't get hyped as much as Tesla, but they seem pretty real to me nevertheless.
  - nl 10y ago
    Of course it does. It is even mentioned in the article.
  - robterrell 10y ago
    Neither of those cars get 150 miles of range. They're both squarely in the under-100 miles category. The BMW only reaches 150 if you get the "range extender," i.e. a motorcycle engine in the trunk that charges the battery. The MB has a "extended charge" mode where you get get a little over a 100 miles, at the expense of using some of the battery overprovisioning. Also, humorously, that Mercedes B-Class you linked to is, under the body, a Tesla frame and propulsion system. They're buying from Tesla because they don't have their own technology yet. Tesla only sells them 30-something kilowatt battery packs, though.
    - kuschku 10y ago
      > They're buying from Tesla because they don't have their own technology yet. Tesla only sells them 30-something kilowatt battery packs, though. No, they’re buying from Tesla because they invested heavily in Tesla in return for being able to use that IP later on.
urlwolf 10y ago
Bosch, a German company that serves the auto manufacturers, seems to have bought patents on a battery technology that could be a breakthrough. Remember that 'the German way' of doing business is not to make noise at all. There have been entire German companies operating without marketing and sales departments, and there still are. I live in Germany.
- tome 10y ago
  > There have been entire German companies operating without marketing and sales departments Very interesting! Are there any case studies on that?
  - ThePhysicist 10y ago
    Google for "hidden champions". That's the name given to many of the companies that are actually world & technology leaders in their respective markets but that are unknown even to most people in Germany.
    - raverbashing 10y ago
      Also "mittelstand"
      - Jugurtha 10y ago
        I love the way Germans use that word, which is the equivalent of Small and Medium-sized Entreprises in the U.S. (I'm from Algeria, it's PME here). I was watching a segment on these companies the other day that addressed the importance of small companies, which constitute the backbone of the German economy. They took one such small company and chatted with its founder. He started talking numbers and I believe he said his small company builds tunnel boring machines and had a turnover of about 5 billion euros. They also mentioned how they're not worried about China because Chinese companies mass produce stuff using German machinery. And how German companies make "the thing that goes into the thing that goes into the thing". Anyway, it was of course an oversimplified CNN-MSNBC-like segment, but it's interesting to see what they consider small company.
nl 10y ago
This has the potential to be a really good article, and it almost starts going down some promising lines, but then misses out on the interesting bits. Take this quote: BMW hopes its fully autonomous iNext, due in 2021, will revolutionize the industry but in the meantime it will continue to promote its poorly performing i3 as the best option for those looking for a premium zero-emissions car. Yes, the i3 is a wacky, kind-of ugly design, and it isn't surprising (to me) that it hasn't been a big seller. But the BMW i division is one of the most interesting things happening in the car industry today, and is making cars[1] that are just as innovative as Tesla. It's a pity that it didn't explore this a bit more. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW_i8 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW_i8
- jeff_petersen 10y ago
  The i3 is ugly, but it's a lot of fun to drive. The only reason I don't own one is that it doesn't have enough range. I make 120-mile trips fairly frequently and it's just not practical for that.
  - varjag 10y ago
    It's not really any more fun to drive than every other EV in this class (KIA Soul, Nissan Leaf, VW E-Golf). However it costs more and is really spartan inside.
    - jeff_petersen 10y ago
      I've not tried the Kia or the VW, but I enjoyed it a lot better than the Leaf and found the interior to be nicer. It may be spartan in how it looks, but a great deal more thought was put into the layout than in the Leaf.
      - varjag 10y ago
        My only complaint with Leaf really is that it has more torque than its bobbly chassis can handle. Traction control has to kick in way too often if you are not accelerating carefully. The i3 interior is.. bizarre. Two tablets in a plywood holder? But I guess it can have its own novelty appeal. Still I'd suggest the electric Mercedes over this, if one gravitates towards premium German makers. Just my two cents.
MichaelMoser123 10y ago
Clayton Christensen argues here [1] that Tesla is going to have a problem with BMW etc. - he says that it has been easier in the past to disrupt existing markets from the low end and with low margin products; the field of high margin cars has a lot of sophisticated players that might give Tesla considerable trouble in the long run - on the high end. Fascinating and very enjoyable talk: [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHdS_4GsKmg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHdS_4GsKmg
- mtgx 10y ago
  I think Clayton Christensen is wrong here for the same reason he was wrong about the iPhone. First off, I think Christensen has been narrowing his disruption theory too much - pretty much to the "low-end" disruption strategy. But if I remember correctly, the original theory was a little more flexible, and it was more about the "next paradigm" technology/product, although it still put a lot of emphasis on the disruptor having lower cost structures than the incumbents. However, at the same time, I was reading Blue Ocean Strategy, which is somewhat similar to the disruption theory, but a little more flexible, and it applies to pretty much any industry, not just the technology ones. What I get from these two theories is that Tesla's cars are a "next-paradigm", which will at the very least make Tesla a "market builder," where it's the leader in that market, but unless Tesla also decides to make the lowest-end cars, then it will not end up dominating the new + old markets. So in this way, it's similar to what happened to Apple. Apple was clearly the leader in "touchscreen smartphones" for a long time, but because it refused to make $200, and $100, and $50 touchscreen smartphones, it made it impossible to remain the leader in terms of sales. So from that point of view, Christensen would be right that Tesla will not end up dominating the EV market in terms of sales, when companies like Renault/Nissan/GM will start making $12,000 EVs with 200-mile ranges in 10 years. But that doesn't mean Tesla will not be successful. It will probably remain the market leader in terms of "who makes the best EV," for a long time, because EVs is what Tesla lives and breathes, and they already have more than a decade of expertise in making production EVs, which will be hard to catch-up to (just like it took most OEMs at least 5 years to even approach the iPhone in quality). I'm actually quite disappointed myself that Musk said Tesla will never make a lower-end car than the Model 3. I was hoping they would at least make a $20,000 one in 5 years or so. I think he may be overestimating how fast self-driving taxis will be adopted by the majority of the population in a way that it makes sense to not have a car anymore (for people who would supposedly not have the money for a Model 3). Will Americans really do 20-30 miles commutes in self-driving taxis, every day, twice a day? I don't know if that math will add-up anytime soon. I mean, even if it does happen, but it's 15 years from now, does it really make sense to hold-out on making a $20,000 EV and getting much more market share in the meantime? I don't think it does, but who knows. I think it's a "safer" strategy to build that $20,000 car than not to do it, though.
boothead 10y ago
Model X has arrived in the UK recently. As a UK company director (contractor), I seem to be able to tax efficiently buy one of these things and get rid of my gas guzzling family 4x4. Anyone done this, I'm still a bit hazy on how the BIK tax and finance costs work? Should I do it?
- tonyedgecombe 10y ago
  £72,000 for an entry level model? That seems a lot to me (although I don't own a car at all now).
  - boothead 10y ago
    Yeah it is a lot. I wouldn't consider buying a brand new car normally. However As currently structured it seems to be a fairly tax efficient way to extract money from the company (vs just buying one from after tax earnings). I was wondering if anyone went down this route with the model S or is going to with model x.
mtgx 10y ago
> "We made the very conscious decision to be conservative in our marketing since it's not in our interest for the assistant systems to be used in circumstances they should not," said the Mercedes official. You don't say? https://electrek.co/2016/07/29/mercedes-pull-self-driving-car-claim-advert-tesla-autopilot/ https://electrek.co/2016/07/29/mercedes-pull-self-driving-ca...
- jacquesm 10y ago
  Well, they did pull the ad.
  - mtgx 10y ago
    But he made it sound as if that was their "well-thought-out strategy", when it was just a reaction to all the bad press Tesla was getting for its "Autopilot." The move was out of fear more than anything. They did create the "we're making self-driving cars" ad in the first place, didn't they?
    - jacquesm 10y ago
      Yes, mistakes happen, even at that level. But how you deal with a mistake after you've made it is what makes all the difference. Mercedes seems to 'own' the problem, they admitted that they did wrong and seem sincere in that. They could have responded a lot worse in this particular case and I don't see how they could have responded better. Compare to VW who initially attempted to blame a bunch of engineers (trying to distance the brand from the action instead of owning up to what they full well knew they did, the details of which are only now emerging and are in direct contradiction to what they initially said and wrote).
      - kuschku 10y ago
        > Compare to VW who initially attempted to blame a bunch of engineers That’s quite a misinformation. VW US said "rogue engineers". VW DE fired the CEO and suspended 20 top engineers, several of whom were on the board of the company (VW mostly recruits managers from their own engineers).
uxdrEntreprneur 10y ago
Tesla is a startup compared to these giants...yet fear has gripped them strong.
electriclove 10y ago
If these companies actually deliver any of these hyped future EVs, then IMHO, Tesla has fulfilled it's mission.
fuzzy2 10y ago
> But Porsche, Audi, BMW and Mercedes are ready to respond But are they? It’s repeated every time this topic comes up: They supposedly have ready-to-manufacture blueprints stashed away in some dusty cabinet. But what about ramping up actual production? What about building production lines? You can’t just pull a blueprint out of a drawer and cars start rolling from the production line the next day. All I see (from an outside perspective) is the big three (BMW, Mercedes, VW) failing to prepare for the future. Of course, customers aren’t really demanding it either. Everybody just complains that electric car X cannot travel 1000 km with a single charge and then goes on to buy a Diesel.
- jibbirish 10y ago
  http://www.reuters.com/article/us-daimler-electric-idUSKCN1190EU http://www.reuters.com/article/us-daimler-electric-idUSKCN11... Daimler is planning six to nine new electric cars between 2018 and 2024, while also unveiling a new electric model next month on the Paris motor show.
  - TwoBit 10y ago
    "planning"
- snarfy 10y ago
  They'll all be using Tesla batteries.
  - qaq 10y ago
    I think everyone is overlooking this very important point.
  - dangrossman 10y ago
    It seems unlikely that Panasonic, LG Chem, Sony, Samsung, etc will cede all their current market share in EV battery production -- that is, 100% of the market -- to a company that currently has none whatsoever. Tesla doesn't make batteries right now... they make battery packs composed of batteries produced by Panasonic and LG Chem. The Gigafactory is basically space sharing: Panasonic's contracted to produce some billions of batteries there, while Tesla has space for assembly lines to package Panasonic's output into packs for cars and homes. Fast forward two years into the future: why would BMW definitely opt to buy Tesla packs of Panasonic batteries, instead of producing their own packs of Panasonic batteries, or Samsung batteries, or an integrated product from LG? LG has the US's largest battery factory in Michigan, which opened in 2013. They have production lines going for the Chevy Volt, Spark EV, Cadillac CT6, and several unnamed customers... and expect to grow production capacity at least 5x in the next 2-3 years. Like the Gigafactory, their output will be measured in gigawatt-hours per year. They also offer more than just batteries to EV makers. LG is providing the battery cells, battery packs, charging systems, motors, control software and infotainment system software for the Chevy Bolt for example. Tesla's unlikely to offer such a suite of components to other auto makers since they're competing in that space. That may make Tesla a less appealing potential partner, meaning they don't get revenue streams from everyone else's EVs as you imply.
spodek 10y ago
> zero-emission I wouldn't call emitted-somewhere-else zero-emission. Zero emission is deciding not to take the trip.
- m_mueller 10y ago
  That depends on your grid. Electricity in quite a few countries is effectively zero emission, thanks largely to hydro and nuclear power, increasingly also solar and wind.
  - adventured 10y ago
    > Electricity in quite a few countries is effectively zero emission Isn't the reality that that is the case with extremely few nations? I'm not aware of more than a few that can claim to be at zero emissions on electricity.
    - m_mueller 10y ago
      Found a good source [2] on this and made a spreadsheet, so look for yourself [1]. There's a second sheet attached that shows the countries with below <30% fossil fuel in the electricity mix for a better overview. [1] https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16K4gNhy_AN8Eg4Ov3z7pF_dgON1oObkHQ8Px5I73Hvc/pubhtml# https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16K4gNhy_AN8Eg4Ov3z7p... [2] https://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/iedindex3.cfm?tid=2&pid=alltypes&aid=12&cid=regions&syid=2008&eyid=2012&unit=BKWH https://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/iedindex3.cfm?tid=2&p... Edit: Have a look at Norway - they could burn their own oil cheaply, but they are a bit smarter than that. Noteworthy is also Brazil - before someone comes in and says you need to have a fully developed rich economy to do this. Edit2: Friendlier view link.
  - scott_karana 10y ago
    Hydro isn't exactly zero emission either. What do you think happens when a dam is created, and kills tree life? What do you think the underwater vegetation emits as it decomposes? Sure, once the back filled area is thoroughly decomposed, you're at 0 ongoing emissions, but there's a big divot needing to be repaid already. (And that's to say nothing of loss of habitat, arable/liveable land, etc.)
untilHellbanned 10y ago
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ablation 10y ago
Unless I'm much mistaken, the Porsche Mission E hasn't actually run the Nurburgring yet. It's a non-functioning concept that was shown at the motor show, too. Is this article implying it already has in the first two paragraphs? The only mention of a lap time from Porsche is a "proposed" sub-eight minute Nurburgring time.
aerovistae 10y ago
God I hope Tesla makes it through the merger and following year up to when Model 3 enters production. It's going to be a rough 5 quarters until then.
kennell 10y ago
From a technical point of view, i think all the big German manufacturers are perfectly capable of building full EV models. It's not technology that is stoping them. It's the stale, inflexible, slow moving corporate culture that comes along with a 100 year old company like Volkswagen or BMW. Add to that the deep goverment-ties and you have even more nonsense involved. Just look at how many models VW is building. Right now, they have more than 30 different base models, each with 4-6 additional variations. With the their full and semi EV models, they are heading for the same chaos. For the last 30 years, they have been incapable of streamlining this, so i really doubt we are going to see a EV with a competitive price–performance ratio anytime soon.
- izacus 10y ago
  Why would they have to streamline this? They actually are building cars that fit their (very loyal and wide) customer base. Some people want the sporty Passat CC, others want the Allroad version. We don't need Appleization of all markets :/
- Vik1ng 10y ago
  > they have been incapable of streamlining this Because it's not the goal. The goal is to offer many variations to have the perfect fit for every customer. Why do you think all German manufacturers have been building more and more SUVs in the last decade. Because that's exactly what American customers want.
- Corrado 10y ago
  I think you are exactly right, the traditional automobile manufacturers don't stand a chance in the "new world". I liken them to carriage makers in the early 1900s and the likelihood that they could make the transition to a completely new way of life. Sure, some of them did make the jump and you can even find a few modern day carriage makers, but for the most part they all died out when the Model T came to town. They just couldn't adjust & adapt as their whole world was wrapped up in the traditional way to make a vehicle.
mirekrusin 10y ago
Looks like another cycle of "X killers". Too little, too late.
pipio21 10y ago
Long time ago I invested all my savings in Tesla stock after having contact(worked) with European and American car manufacturers. The reason? You can't imagine how big the facilities for building car components are. There are billions and billions invested on facilities with decades to be paid off. This is a big advantage once cars are standard, and all the same,and don't change, but becomes a huge liability if you change the technology. If you invest on a plant a billion dollars to build engines to be amortized in 25 years and engines become obsolete by the way... you have thrown to the trash 1.000 million dollars as your expectations for the future became wrong. Now multiply this billion for 20 or so and there you have the car industry. They don't want change because change means them losing billions. Then there are other minor issues: electric means no mechanical reviews which is a huge business. Electric means mechanical engineers without work. Any change has to come from newcomers and the same way Elon did: You do your sales yourself so car manufacturers-dealers(who profit any time a mechanical piece fails) do not sabotage you. I don't see any conventional car company doing it, maybe Toyota that advanced what the future would wring before the others that are late to the party.
- dmoy 10y ago
  I don't mean to tell you how to live your life, but investing all of your savings is very risky - putting all your savings in one company is extremely risky. Even if everything you state about existing car companies is true, Tesla could fail for a multitude of reasons, leaving you with nothing.
  - mulcahey 10y ago
    Yeah that's why Elon split his between two.
  - marvin 10y ago
    If pipio is prudent, he has sold a third or so of his shares at this point, which would leave him with a guaranteed profit even if Tesla goes bankrupt tomorrow. Even after the ~35% decline in Tesla share price during the last years, the stock is at >10x the IPO price and 7x the price in 2012.
- 10y ago
legohead 10y ago
So about the charging stations. Is the end goal going to be charging stations all over your city for each car manufacturer? Or are they willing to copy Tesla's plug and make some kind of "charging alliance"? Tesla has released their patents[1] so this would appear possible. [1] https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-our-patent-are-belong-you https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-our-patent-are-belong-you
- sliverstorm 10y ago
  Maybe you'll carry a bunch of plug adapters in the trunk, like with international travel.
- kuschku 10y ago
  > Tesla has released their patents[1] so this would appear possible. Tesla has released their patents in the same way Facebook or Google have: only if you in turn release all your patents to Tesla. No one will do that, and the actual solution will likely end up with the EU enforcing a standardized plug in one or two years time.
  - jeromeflipo 10y ago
    > Only if you in turn release all your patents to Tesla. Could you provide a source?
OliverJones 10y ago
Benz and Audi and BMW can sell their products into an existing transport system. Fuel of the correct octane is generally available. The dealer network can support itself on maintenance fees as well as sales commissions. Telsa has to build the transport system. They need to get people interested in deploying charging stations. They need to build a distribution system that doesn't depend on US$5000 per year in maintenance fees from each customer. They need to overcome range anxiety. In this they have common cause with Nissan (Leaf) and GM (Bolt and Volt). But they're head-to-head with the big European high-end carmakers. A car maker switching to electric power is like a computer hardware maker switching to software: it disrupts the sales process so dramatically that it's very hard to do successfully. As a (well-to-do hipster) Tesla Model S customer, I hope I don't end up getting stuck with the Betamax of charging connectors. I hope the various EV makers can sort out the J1772 / ChaDEmo / Tesla connector issue pretty soon.
waldrews 10y ago
Are we going to get a Longgermancompoundword to describe this form of envy?

227 points by Corrado 10y ago

Tesla needed to have something groundbreaking like the Model S, otherwise they would never have gotten the attention and sales that they got. The germans already had an established business and didn't need to take risks. Also their sales are strong and even increasing, so i don't buy the argument the press is spinning that Audi/BMW/Merc/Porsche are being left behind by Tesla. They have some very impressive technology in the works and Tesla still has to prove that it can be really profitable. Still i love Tesla for what they did and the movement they started.

krait 10y ago
The canonical reply from Elon Musk on profitability is that they hope to profitable on a GAAP basis in 2020. Let's see if external investors hang in there long enough to allow this. ( http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-04/as-tesla-gears-up-for-suv-investors-ask-where-the-profits-are http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-04/as-tesla-g... ) It will be very interesting to see what happens to the used Model S prices now that Tesla took away the buyback guarantee for new cars.
- Retric 10y ago
  Compared to shorter range cars I think they are going to do much better. A 90 mile Nelson leaf is ok, a 60 mile neon leaf on the other hand. A 5 year old model S likely has more range than a new leaf and if it bothers you getting a new battery will drastically boost that range. So, at resale a model S is probably well north of 30k.
ryuker16 10y ago
Tesla is eating into their luxury sales: The 70-100K+ car market segment is smaller and the USA/Japanese dominate the lower end. Every rich guy buying a Tesla instead of an Audi or Merc is taking away market share the euro car makers are unlikely to get back. I don't hear many stories of people "upgrading" from a Tesla to an Audi or Merc.
MarkMc 10y ago
> Also their sales are strong and even increasing Nokia and Blackberry unit sales rose for 3.5 years after the iPhone debuted. Tesla is making enormous investments in their business. (For example their enormous gigafactory will provide scale advantages). When these investments start bearing fruit the Germans may find it difficult to compete

DaGardner 10y ago

I think this sums the situation up quite well and explains why Mercedes, BMW, etc. have not put a serious Tesla competitor on the streets yet: > We have to earn money at the end of the day though.

VeejayRampay 10y ago
But isn't always the game with ground-breaking technologies though? At first you don't make as much money, but you're laying the road for the big thing. And when the revolution begins, you're the one making the big bucks.
- wott 10y ago
  Not always at all. Also often, the forerunner disappears when other companies jump in at a later, proven, profitable stage of the technology, when both technology and the market are ready for mass production.
  - tonyedgecombe 10y ago
    Or else they just buy the upstart.
  - endymi0n 10y ago
    This. Ever heard of Myspace? Altavista? When making a market, watch out for well equipped and funded upstarts going to get you. Next victims of their own success: Docker.
    - tokipin 10y ago
      I think in those cases, it was a matter of a better-designed, clearer-headed product taking space from a not-so-well-designed product. That's not what would happen here, because Tesla is already the creme de la creme. In fact, Tesla executing so well is the only reason EVs have seen their recent "resurgence" in the first place. And remember that Tesla isn't the first company to make electric cars. I also think people underestimate by a lot how hard making new things is. It's not just a matter of coming in with more money. It's almost deceptive on Tesla's part that the cars seem simple. But if it really were so simple the Model S would already have competition. And when you're talking about someone who has raised a company that lands rockets in the middle of the ocean, competitors are fooling themselves if they think even just a superficial copy is going to be easy. This is something they have to bring their A game to at all levels.

Cthulhu_ 10y ago

I think Tesla will make money regardless of whether the established car companies come up with a good or better car; they're investing heavily in battery technology, and within 5 years, Tesla will be the world leader in that respect, undercutting the competition and managing to buy up most of the world's raw materials for batteries. See it as them becoming the oil industry, instead of the car industry - designs, efficiency, laws etc are fickle and tend to vary a lot, but oil and petrol has remained relatively unchanged for a long time (as far as I can tell). Battery tech could still face a huge revolution though; if Tesla isn't able to acquire that and go with that, they might see themselves out of the battery business very quickly.

semi-extrinsic 10y ago
Tesla doesn't really have a big investment in battery technology, Panasonic owns the technology and manufacturing process IP. What Tesla is investing in with the Gigafactory is taking economy of scales to the extreme (Musk has freely said as much publicly). That's not something which is difficult for others to replicate once it's proven to be a profitable venture.
- qaq 10y ago
  Yep it's easy to replicate provided you don't mind waiting 5-6 years for your copy of gigafactory to be built.
  - kuschku 10y ago
    Or just buying Teslas gigafactory after Tesla goes broke.
    - qaq 10y ago
      I highly doubt that Tesla will go broke but sure that's another option.
gambiting 10y ago
The thing is, that while Tesla cars might be the coolest thing on the market, but it won't matter one bit if they run out of money. The question is - can they make themselves profitable before that happens?

semi-extrinsic 10y ago

The money quote: > "I wish we had put that car on the road and not Tesla," confided a senior engineer at Porsche. "We have to earn money at the end of the day though." The article also talks about "how will the German brands win back customers from Tesla?", but really, if you look at cars like the Mercedes S-class, BMW 7 series or the Audi A8, their sales are unchanged or even increasing since 2012 when the Model S was launched. Audi has been setting record sales numbers in the US, which is Tesla's biggest market, for five years straight. So it's a bit hard to argue Tesla has taken many of their customers. Maybe most Tesla drivers were never petrolheads in the first place, and drove a boring station wagon before the Model S came along?

ff10 10y ago
I really wonder where those customers come from.
- semi-extrinsic 10y ago
  There are a few "what did you drive before" threads on the Tesla forums, and it's all over the place, from Hummers to Jaguars to Maseratis to Nissan GT-Rs, but surprisingly many seem to be coming from Prius or a Volvo of some sort.
  - toyg 10y ago
    I wouldn't be surprised by Prius owners going Tesla, the Prius already was the "comfortable progressive" car of choice with its hybrid efficiency, so a Tesla is the natural progression. Volvo has similar brand connotations, making cars for people who care more about features and comfort than status symbol. Hummer, Jaguar and Maserati though, those are further away from the natural "ideological core" of potential Tesla owners.
    - ZanyProgrammer 10y ago
      "Hummer, Jaguar and Maserati though, those are further away from the natural "ideological core" of potential Tesla owners." True, but they are also cars for the affluent, and Teslas, in addition to appealing to people with an enviro-lefty bent, appeal to the affluent.

alimbada 10y ago

They're all full of hot air until they actually deliver a real EV that can compete with the Model S. I saw an article on a Mercedes-Maybach EV concept car the other week which made me roll my eyes. I've always felt concept cars are a silly idea; a waste of talent and resources. Why can't they spend that on creating a real car and delivering it instead?

ThePhysicist 10y ago
Does the BMW i series not qualify as real EV? http://www.bmwusa.com/bmw/bmwi http://www.bmwusa.com/bmw/bmwi The range is a little less than what Tesla offers (150 miles), but here in Berlin I see quite a few of them on the road already. Mercedes has a similar model btw: http://www.mercedes-benz.de/content/germany/mpc/mpc_germany_website/de/home_mpc/passengercars/home/new_cars/models/b-class/w242.html http://www.mercedes-benz.de/content/germany/mpc/mpc_germany_... They probably don't get hyped as much as Tesla, but they seem pretty real to me nevertheless.
- nl 10y ago
  Of course it does. It is even mentioned in the article.
- robterrell 10y ago
  Neither of those cars get 150 miles of range. They're both squarely in the under-100 miles category. The BMW only reaches 150 if you get the "range extender," i.e. a motorcycle engine in the trunk that charges the battery. The MB has a "extended charge" mode where you get get a little over a 100 miles, at the expense of using some of the battery overprovisioning. Also, humorously, that Mercedes B-Class you linked to is, under the body, a Tesla frame and propulsion system. They're buying from Tesla because they don't have their own technology yet. Tesla only sells them 30-something kilowatt battery packs, though.
  - kuschku 10y ago
    > They're buying from Tesla because they don't have their own technology yet. Tesla only sells them 30-something kilowatt battery packs, though. No, they’re buying from Tesla because they invested heavily in Tesla in return for being able to use that IP later on.

urlwolf 10y ago

Bosch, a German company that serves the auto manufacturers, seems to have bought patents on a battery technology that could be a breakthrough. Remember that 'the German way' of doing business is not to make noise at all. There have been entire German companies operating without marketing and sales departments, and there still are. I live in Germany.

tome 10y ago
> There have been entire German companies operating without marketing and sales departments Very interesting! Are there any case studies on that?
- ThePhysicist 10y ago
  Google for "hidden champions". That's the name given to many of the companies that are actually world & technology leaders in their respective markets but that are unknown even to most people in Germany.
  - raverbashing 10y ago
    Also "mittelstand"
    - Jugurtha 10y ago
      I love the way Germans use that word, which is the equivalent of Small and Medium-sized Entreprises in the U.S. (I'm from Algeria, it's PME here). I was watching a segment on these companies the other day that addressed the importance of small companies, which constitute the backbone of the German economy. They took one such small company and chatted with its founder. He started talking numbers and I believe he said his small company builds tunnel boring machines and had a turnover of about 5 billion euros. They also mentioned how they're not worried about China because Chinese companies mass produce stuff using German machinery. And how German companies make "the thing that goes into the thing that goes into the thing". Anyway, it was of course an oversimplified CNN-MSNBC-like segment, but it's interesting to see what they consider small company.

nl 10y ago

This has the potential to be a really good article, and it almost starts going down some promising lines, but then misses out on the interesting bits. Take this quote: BMW hopes its fully autonomous iNext, due in 2021, will revolutionize the industry but in the meantime it will continue to promote its poorly performing i3 as the best option for those looking for a premium zero-emissions car. Yes, the i3 is a wacky, kind-of ugly design, and it isn't surprising (to me) that it hasn't been a big seller. But the BMW i division is one of the most interesting things happening in the car industry today, and is making cars[1] that are just as innovative as Tesla. It's a pity that it didn't explore this a bit more. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW_i8 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW_i8

jeff_petersen 10y ago
The i3 is ugly, but it's a lot of fun to drive. The only reason I don't own one is that it doesn't have enough range. I make 120-mile trips fairly frequently and it's just not practical for that.
- varjag 10y ago
  It's not really any more fun to drive than every other EV in this class (KIA Soul, Nissan Leaf, VW E-Golf). However it costs more and is really spartan inside.
  - jeff_petersen 10y ago
    I've not tried the Kia or the VW, but I enjoyed it a lot better than the Leaf and found the interior to be nicer. It may be spartan in how it looks, but a great deal more thought was put into the layout than in the Leaf.
    - varjag 10y ago
      My only complaint with Leaf really is that it has more torque than its bobbly chassis can handle. Traction control has to kick in way too often if you are not accelerating carefully. The i3 interior is.. bizarre. Two tablets in a plywood holder? But I guess it can have its own novelty appeal. Still I'd suggest the electric Mercedes over this, if one gravitates towards premium German makers. Just my two cents.

MichaelMoser123 10y ago

Clayton Christensen argues here [1] that Tesla is going to have a problem with BMW etc. - he says that it has been easier in the past to disrupt existing markets from the low end and with low margin products; the field of high margin cars has a lot of sophisticated players that might give Tesla considerable trouble in the long run - on the high end. Fascinating and very enjoyable talk: [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHdS_4GsKmg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHdS_4GsKmg

mtgx 10y ago
I think Clayton Christensen is wrong here for the same reason he was wrong about the iPhone. First off, I think Christensen has been narrowing his disruption theory too much - pretty much to the "low-end" disruption strategy. But if I remember correctly, the original theory was a little more flexible, and it was more about the "next paradigm" technology/product, although it still put a lot of emphasis on the disruptor having lower cost structures than the incumbents. However, at the same time, I was reading Blue Ocean Strategy, which is somewhat similar to the disruption theory, but a little more flexible, and it applies to pretty much any industry, not just the technology ones. What I get from these two theories is that Tesla's cars are a "next-paradigm", which will at the very least make Tesla a "market builder," where it's the leader in that market, but unless Tesla also decides to make the lowest-end cars, then it will not end up dominating the new + old markets. So in this way, it's similar to what happened to Apple. Apple was clearly the leader in "touchscreen smartphones" for a long time, but because it refused to make $200, and $100, and $50 touchscreen smartphones, it made it impossible to remain the leader in terms of sales. So from that point of view, Christensen would be right that Tesla will not end up dominating the EV market in terms of sales, when companies like Renault/Nissan/GM will start making $12,000 EVs with 200-mile ranges in 10 years. But that doesn't mean Tesla will not be successful. It will probably remain the market leader in terms of "who makes the best EV," for a long time, because EVs is what Tesla lives and breathes, and they already have more than a decade of expertise in making production EVs, which will be hard to catch-up to (just like it took most OEMs at least 5 years to even approach the iPhone in quality). I'm actually quite disappointed myself that Musk said Tesla will never make a lower-end car than the Model 3. I was hoping they would at least make a $20,000 one in 5 years or so. I think he may be overestimating how fast self-driving taxis will be adopted by the majority of the population in a way that it makes sense to not have a car anymore (for people who would supposedly not have the money for a Model 3). Will Americans really do 20-30 miles commutes in self-driving taxis, every day, twice a day? I don't know if that math will add-up anytime soon. I mean, even if it does happen, but it's 15 years from now, does it really make sense to hold-out on making a $20,000 EV and getting much more market share in the meantime? I don't think it does, but who knows. I think it's a "safer" strategy to build that $20,000 car than not to do it, though.

boothead 10y ago

Model X has arrived in the UK recently. As a UK company director (contractor), I seem to be able to tax efficiently buy one of these things and get rid of my gas guzzling family 4x4. Anyone done this, I'm still a bit hazy on how the BIK tax and finance costs work? Should I do it?

tonyedgecombe 10y ago
£72,000 for an entry level model? That seems a lot to me (although I don't own a car at all now).
- boothead 10y ago
  Yeah it is a lot. I wouldn't consider buying a brand new car normally. However As currently structured it seems to be a fairly tax efficient way to extract money from the company (vs just buying one from after tax earnings). I was wondering if anyone went down this route with the model S or is going to with model x.

mtgx 10y ago

> "We made the very conscious decision to be conservative in our marketing since it's not in our interest for the assistant systems to be used in circumstances they should not," said the Mercedes official. You don't say? https://electrek.co/2016/07/29/mercedes-pull-self-driving-car-claim-advert-tesla-autopilot/ https://electrek.co/2016/07/29/mercedes-pull-self-driving-ca...

jacquesm 10y ago
Well, they did pull the ad.
- mtgx 10y ago
  But he made it sound as if that was their "well-thought-out strategy", when it was just a reaction to all the bad press Tesla was getting for its "Autopilot." The move was out of fear more than anything. They did create the "we're making self-driving cars" ad in the first place, didn't they?
  - jacquesm 10y ago
    Yes, mistakes happen, even at that level. But how you deal with a mistake after you've made it is what makes all the difference. Mercedes seems to 'own' the problem, they admitted that they did wrong and seem sincere in that. They could have responded a lot worse in this particular case and I don't see how they could have responded better. Compare to VW who initially attempted to blame a bunch of engineers (trying to distance the brand from the action instead of owning up to what they full well knew they did, the details of which are only now emerging and are in direct contradiction to what they initially said and wrote).
    - kuschku 10y ago
      > Compare to VW who initially attempted to blame a bunch of engineers That’s quite a misinformation. VW US said "rogue engineers". VW DE fired the CEO and suspended 20 top engineers, several of whom were on the board of the company (VW mostly recruits managers from their own engineers).

uxdrEntreprneur 10y ago

Tesla is a startup compared to these giants...yet fear has gripped them strong.

electriclove 10y ago

If these companies actually deliver any of these hyped future EVs, then IMHO, Tesla has fulfilled it's mission.

fuzzy2 10y ago

> But Porsche, Audi, BMW and Mercedes are ready to respond But are they? It’s repeated every time this topic comes up: They supposedly have ready-to-manufacture blueprints stashed away in some dusty cabinet. But what about ramping up actual production? What about building production lines? You can’t just pull a blueprint out of a drawer and cars start rolling from the production line the next day. All I see (from an outside perspective) is the big three (BMW, Mercedes, VW) failing to prepare for the future. Of course, customers aren’t really demanding it either. Everybody just complains that electric car X cannot travel 1000 km with a single charge and then goes on to buy a Diesel.

jibbirish 10y ago
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-daimler-electric-idUSKCN1190EU http://www.reuters.com/article/us-daimler-electric-idUSKCN11... Daimler is planning six to nine new electric cars between 2018 and 2024, while also unveiling a new electric model next month on the Paris motor show.
- TwoBit 10y ago
  "planning"
snarfy 10y ago
They'll all be using Tesla batteries.
- qaq 10y ago
  I think everyone is overlooking this very important point.
- dangrossman 10y ago
  It seems unlikely that Panasonic, LG Chem, Sony, Samsung, etc will cede all their current market share in EV battery production -- that is, 100% of the market -- to a company that currently has none whatsoever. Tesla doesn't make batteries right now... they make battery packs composed of batteries produced by Panasonic and LG Chem. The Gigafactory is basically space sharing: Panasonic's contracted to produce some billions of batteries there, while Tesla has space for assembly lines to package Panasonic's output into packs for cars and homes. Fast forward two years into the future: why would BMW definitely opt to buy Tesla packs of Panasonic batteries, instead of producing their own packs of Panasonic batteries, or Samsung batteries, or an integrated product from LG? LG has the US's largest battery factory in Michigan, which opened in 2013. They have production lines going for the Chevy Volt, Spark EV, Cadillac CT6, and several unnamed customers... and expect to grow production capacity at least 5x in the next 2-3 years. Like the Gigafactory, their output will be measured in gigawatt-hours per year. They also offer more than just batteries to EV makers. LG is providing the battery cells, battery packs, charging systems, motors, control software and infotainment system software for the Chevy Bolt for example. Tesla's unlikely to offer such a suite of components to other auto makers since they're competing in that space. That may make Tesla a less appealing potential partner, meaning they don't get revenue streams from everyone else's EVs as you imply.

spodek 10y ago

> zero-emission I wouldn't call emitted-somewhere-else zero-emission. Zero emission is deciding not to take the trip.

m_mueller 10y ago
That depends on your grid. Electricity in quite a few countries is effectively zero emission, thanks largely to hydro and nuclear power, increasingly also solar and wind.
- adventured 10y ago
  > Electricity in quite a few countries is effectively zero emission Isn't the reality that that is the case with extremely few nations? I'm not aware of more than a few that can claim to be at zero emissions on electricity.
  - m_mueller 10y ago
    Found a good source [2] on this and made a spreadsheet, so look for yourself [1]. There's a second sheet attached that shows the countries with below <30% fossil fuel in the electricity mix for a better overview. [1] https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16K4gNhy_AN8Eg4Ov3z7pF_dgON1oObkHQ8Px5I73Hvc/pubhtml# https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16K4gNhy_AN8Eg4Ov3z7p... [2] https://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/iedindex3.cfm?tid=2&pid=alltypes&aid=12&cid=regions&syid=2008&eyid=2012&unit=BKWH https://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/iedindex3.cfm?tid=2&p... Edit: Have a look at Norway - they could burn their own oil cheaply, but they are a bit smarter than that. Noteworthy is also Brazil - before someone comes in and says you need to have a fully developed rich economy to do this. Edit2: Friendlier view link.
- scott_karana 10y ago
  Hydro isn't exactly zero emission either. What do you think happens when a dam is created, and kills tree life? What do you think the underwater vegetation emits as it decomposes? Sure, once the back filled area is thoroughly decomposed, you're at 0 ongoing emissions, but there's a big divot needing to be repaid already. (And that's to say nothing of loss of habitat, arable/liveable land, etc.)

untilHellbanned 10y ago

#ad

ablation 10y ago

Unless I'm much mistaken, the Porsche Mission E hasn't actually run the Nurburgring yet. It's a non-functioning concept that was shown at the motor show, too. Is this article implying it already has in the first two paragraphs? The only mention of a lap time from Porsche is a "proposed" sub-eight minute Nurburgring time.

aerovistae 10y ago

God I hope Tesla makes it through the merger and following year up to when Model 3 enters production. It's going to be a rough 5 quarters until then.

kennell 10y ago

From a technical point of view, i think all the big German manufacturers are perfectly capable of building full EV models. It's not technology that is stoping them. It's the stale, inflexible, slow moving corporate culture that comes along with a 100 year old company like Volkswagen or BMW. Add to that the deep goverment-ties and you have even more nonsense involved. Just look at how many models VW is building. Right now, they have more than 30 different base models, each with 4-6 additional variations. With the their full and semi EV models, they are heading for the same chaos. For the last 30 years, they have been incapable of streamlining this, so i really doubt we are going to see a EV with a competitive price–performance ratio anytime soon.

izacus 10y ago
Why would they have to streamline this? They actually are building cars that fit their (very loyal and wide) customer base. Some people want the sporty Passat CC, others want the Allroad version. We don't need Appleization of all markets :/
Vik1ng 10y ago
> they have been incapable of streamlining this Because it's not the goal. The goal is to offer many variations to have the perfect fit for every customer. Why do you think all German manufacturers have been building more and more SUVs in the last decade. Because that's exactly what American customers want.
Corrado 10y ago
I think you are exactly right, the traditional automobile manufacturers don't stand a chance in the "new world". I liken them to carriage makers in the early 1900s and the likelihood that they could make the transition to a completely new way of life. Sure, some of them did make the jump and you can even find a few modern day carriage makers, but for the most part they all died out when the Model T came to town. They just couldn't adjust & adapt as their whole world was wrapped up in the traditional way to make a vehicle.

mirekrusin 10y ago

Looks like another cycle of "X killers". Too little, too late.

pipio21 10y ago

Long time ago I invested all my savings in Tesla stock after having contact(worked) with European and American car manufacturers. The reason? You can't imagine how big the facilities for building car components are. There are billions and billions invested on facilities with decades to be paid off. This is a big advantage once cars are standard, and all the same,and don't change, but becomes a huge liability if you change the technology. If you invest on a plant a billion dollars to build engines to be amortized in 25 years and engines become obsolete by the way... you have thrown to the trash 1.000 million dollars as your expectations for the future became wrong. Now multiply this billion for 20 or so and there you have the car industry. They don't want change because change means them losing billions. Then there are other minor issues: electric means no mechanical reviews which is a huge business. Electric means mechanical engineers without work. Any change has to come from newcomers and the same way Elon did: You do your sales yourself so car manufacturers-dealers(who profit any time a mechanical piece fails) do not sabotage you. I don't see any conventional car company doing it, maybe Toyota that advanced what the future would wring before the others that are late to the party.

dmoy 10y ago
I don't mean to tell you how to live your life, but investing all of your savings is very risky - putting all your savings in one company is extremely risky. Even if everything you state about existing car companies is true, Tesla could fail for a multitude of reasons, leaving you with nothing.
- mulcahey 10y ago
  Yeah that's why Elon split his between two.
- marvin 10y ago
  If pipio is prudent, he has sold a third or so of his shares at this point, which would leave him with a guaranteed profit even if Tesla goes bankrupt tomorrow. Even after the ~35% decline in Tesla share price during the last years, the stock is at >10x the IPO price and 7x the price in 2012.
10y ago

legohead 10y ago

So about the charging stations. Is the end goal going to be charging stations all over your city for each car manufacturer? Or are they willing to copy Tesla's plug and make some kind of "charging alliance"? Tesla has released their patents[1] so this would appear possible. [1] https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-our-patent-are-belong-you https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-our-patent-are-belong-you

sliverstorm 10y ago
Maybe you'll carry a bunch of plug adapters in the trunk, like with international travel.
kuschku 10y ago
> Tesla has released their patents[1] so this would appear possible. Tesla has released their patents in the same way Facebook or Google have: only if you in turn release all your patents to Tesla. No one will do that, and the actual solution will likely end up with the EU enforcing a standardized plug in one or two years time.
- jeromeflipo 10y ago
  > Only if you in turn release all your patents to Tesla. Could you provide a source?

OliverJones 10y ago

Benz and Audi and BMW can sell their products into an existing transport system. Fuel of the correct octane is generally available. The dealer network can support itself on maintenance fees as well as sales commissions. Telsa has to build the transport system. They need to get people interested in deploying charging stations. They need to build a distribution system that doesn't depend on US$5000 per year in maintenance fees from each customer. They need to overcome range anxiety. In this they have common cause with Nissan (Leaf) and GM (Bolt and Volt). But they're head-to-head with the big European high-end carmakers. A car maker switching to electric power is like a computer hardware maker switching to software: it disrupts the sales process so dramatically that it's very hard to do successfully. As a (well-to-do hipster) Tesla Model S customer, I hope I don't end up getting stuck with the Betamax of charging connectors. I hope the various EV makers can sort out the J1772 / ChaDEmo / Tesla connector issue pretty soon.

waldrews 10y ago

Are we going to get a Longgermancompoundword to describe this form of envy?