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AMD stock up 52%

242 points by neverminder 11y ago

agumonkey 11y ago
Reminds me that Zen is coming in a few months too. bandwidth rumors: http://techfrag.com/2016/04/02/first-amd-zen-benchmarks-leaked/ http://techfrag.com/2016/04/02/first-amd-zen-benchmarks-leak... CERN rumors: http://seekingalpha.com/article/3961536-amd-zens-release-will-taking-names-kicking-bandwidth-sooner-rather-later http://seekingalpha.com/article/3961536-amd-zens-release-wil...
- sveme 11y ago
  OT: Seriously, I cannot read the seekingalpha article without installing their app? No way! Ad-blocking-related or is this the same for everyone?
  - jhasse 11y ago
    its the same here without adblocking
  - philippnagel 11y ago
    Works fine for me. Safari 9.0.3 with AdBlock.
  - agumonkey 11y ago
    Sorry it happened, I had no issue on my side (otherwise I wouldn't have posted it). Here's a simpler rendering http://www.printfriendly.com/print/?source=homepage&url=http%3A%2F%2Fseekingalpha.com%2Farticle%2F3961536-amd-zens-release-will-taking-names-kicking-bandwidth-sooner-rather-later http://www.printfriendly.com/print/?source=homepage&url=http...
  - tremon 11y ago
    No problem here with adblock+noscript
  - rubyfan 11y ago
    I get the same when I click Read the Full Article
- anonymfus 11y ago
  Your first link is about april fools joke. http://www.bitsandchips.it/component/content/article/52-english-news/6815-speculations-about-zen-after-our-april-s-fool http://www.bitsandchips.it/component/content/article/52-engl...
  - agumonkey 11y ago
    `facepalm` Hard to check a posteriori indirect articles from around 1st of april. Good catch.
- _ph_ 11y ago
  A 32 core zen would be extremely interesting, assuming it is affordable for mere mortals. It would be a great base for experimenting with developing multi-core algorithms.
- revelation 11y ago
  AMD is the leader in virtual reality? I can believe that it they mean in their own imaginary world, they are leading.
  - rdsubhas 11y ago
    They are leading in virtual reality in virtual reality. So its got to be true.
celticninja 11y ago
Any news that would have influenced this?
- tristanj 11y ago
  They licensed their x86 tech to a Chinese company for $293 million https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11548354 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11548354
- deleted 11y ago
  [deleted]
- lazyjones 11y ago
  They slightly beat expectations, but that can't be the whole story. Might be something to do with Intel's recent weakness and restructuring (moving away from the PC market), perhaps the PS4.5 rumors...
- deleted 11y ago
  [deleted]
- gruturo 11y ago
  Yesterday's news of a joint venture to build servers for the chinese market? http://www.extremetech.com/computing/227059-amd-announces-new-293-million-joint-venture-to-build-servers-for-the-chinese-market http://www.extremetech.com/computing/227059-amd-announces-ne...
- srikz 11y ago
  One factor may be that they expect 1.5 billion in revenue from 3 devices (Playstation 4.5, Nintendo NX, Microsoft Xbox One.5???) [1] But the chinese deal is probably the main reason [1]: http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2016/04/amd-promises-three-new-gaming-processors-coming-soon-is-one-for-xbox/ http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2016/04/amd-promises-three-new...
  - LoSboccacc 11y ago
    Also intel just had a big layoff and wants to call out from that segment
rajeemcariazo 11y ago
Is this related to the deal with Tianjin Haiguang Advanced Technology Investment Co?
shiftb 11y ago
Why? Is anyone else surprised that up 50% is $4?
- tome 11y ago
  Why do you think the price per share is relevant?
  - kwsmith 11y ago
    Because while logically the price is irrelevant, in practice is isn't. Prices below $5 often indicate that a company is in trouble. Which I think is what the unfairly downvoted comment above was referring to.
    - tome 11y ago
      > Prices below $5 often indicate that a company is in trouble. Really? What are you basing that on?
      - nathank 11y ago
        Just read the comments below before posting again.
        imtringued 11y ago
        Which comments? You do realise that the order of comments is influenced by votes and how recentley they were created? Either give us a proper explanation or a link to the comment you are refering to. Stock splits are only about convenience. Imagine if all we had are $100 bills. Buying groceries will be quite a hassle. The government then decides to do a split and let everyone exchange their $100 bills with 10 $10 bills. Everyone still has the same amount of cash but it's now easier for the average consumer to buy their groceries. How would the existence of a $10 bill mean the economy is in trouble?
        11y ago
tudorw 11y ago
$9.10 in 2011, 52% looks good on the day chart, not so good over 5 years...
- zymhan 11y ago
  Yeah, I bought some AMD stock when I thought it was undervalued at like $8. It just proceeded to fall a few bucks over the next year or two. It is cheap enough now to buy a few dozen shares and get an easy return if it rises, without hurting too much if it falls again. And it's not like AMD is going out of business anytime soon. Certainly the value of their IP and assets would justify a floor in the stock price.
chx 11y ago
So AMD bought ATI for 5.4B only a year later wrote down 2.65B of it, valuing ATI at 2.75B in 2007. Currently AMD is worth 3B, valuing the AMD part of the company roughly zero provided ATI had at least 1% growth in each of the past nine years. Licensing out what a bit ago would've been the crown jewels for $.3B makes a lot of sense in these circumstances.
- PhantomGremlin 11y ago
  If you go back about 35 years (I'm too lazy to look up the exact details), AMD was a bigger company than Intel, both in revenue and in market cap. And then the IBM PC happened, and the rest, as they say, is history.
  - deleted 11y ago
    [deleted]
  - chx 11y ago
    Really. In 1971, AMD was selling 4.6M, Intel 9.4M. In 1978 AMD had $100M in total sales and Intel had 400M. https://books.google.ca/books?id=GTwEAAAAMBAJ&pg=PT51&lpg=PT51&dq=%22amd%22+1984+sales&source=bl&ots=CzMSb3o5mk&sig=gmfB509HsVPBbjJQb2zNu-BaSPc&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiararOwKTMAhUJ6WMKHWTpA8sQ6AEIIDAC#v=onepage&q=%22amd%22%201984%20sales&f=false https://books.google.ca/books?id=GTwEAAAAMBAJ&pg=PT51&lpg=PT... this page has both '84 and '90 with Intel outselling and outprofiting AMD several times over. So when was that mysterious year if it was not in the seventies or the eighties?
    - PhantomGremlin 11y ago
      I was thinking around 1980 or 1985, back before IBM PC and clones became popular. Turns out I was wrong, Intel was about 2x to 4x larger than AMD in those days. I went back and got some hard figures. I had to average yearly high/low stock price to compute historical market cap. All values in $millions: 1980 1985 1990 ttm / yesterday ---- ---- ---- ---- AMD sales 309 576 1059 3990 mkt cap 446 1672 617 3170 INTC sales 855 1365 3921 55360 mkt cap 1667 3091 7990 149260 In 1985 Intel sales are 2.37x AMD and market cap is 1.85x. Currently Intel sales are 13.8x AMD and market cap is 47x.
pearjuice 11y ago
It is quite surprising that AMD has been undervalued for so long. Would't be surprised by more radical upwards corrections.
- arca_vorago 11y ago
  I have a slightly different take on AMD these days, in that I don't think they were undervalued, at least not too much, but rather I think they saw the direction the future held and jumped at it, thinking they would be ahead of intel, mostly in their understanding of the merging of cpu and gpu. I simply think they did it a bit too fast and left their other offerings with too little resources, but now that they are using the 14nm and 16nm manufacturing process, Zen is poised to be a much heavier hitter than I think most people understand yet. So they werent undervalued too much, but they are now, and so I think you are probably correct about more radical upwards corrections. I am especially excited to see their server cpus with zen. My favorite machine I have ever built is actually an AMD machine, and I built it fairly recently because there are some models in which they excel. (Its a quad opteron 6380 system for a total of 64 cores at 2.5ghz, and I did it for less than 5k$ Something I theorycrafted while in bioinformatics, though I didnt get to buld it until I was no longer in that industry.) Also, I'll say that I have been looking at building a new system for my gamedev purposes, and I have concluded that I am going to wait for Zen. If they miss the q4 2016 release though they may lose the mindshare momentum they are bulding up.
  - tcoppi 11y ago
    The ATI acquisition was very forward looking, the problem is the hardware and software stack required to make APUs successful was nowhere close to ready at the time. We are just now seeing small enough process nodes that can support real GPU performance on the same die as a decent CPU, though the software isn't there yet still it is much closer. If Zen can match/beat Intel and it scales well enough down to APUs I think they might finally find their market, and Zen on the server should be a killer as well if that is the case, as AMD has always done really well at shoving lots of cores in small packages.
  - scholia 11y ago
hoodoof 11y ago
Anyone care to predict if I invested say $1,000 ASAP open trading, if I would be up or down 24 hours after that?
- charlesdm 11y ago
  No one can predict the market, but 52% is a massive jump for single trading day. For a stock that has been declining/underwater for so long, it wouldn't be unusual for some people to cut their losses and move on.
- umrashrf 11y ago
  "Buy when everyone is selling and Sell when everyone is buying."
  - tinco 11y ago
    I reason about jumps like this in terms of two components. A 'real' component and an 'emotional' component. When a stock moves it moves R% + E%, for real and emotional. The real component in this case seems to be the 200MM+ deal they struck that. R and E are of course unknown, the big investors make their money calculating these values as best they can. Calculating R is hard to do precisely for an amateur (such as me), but E has a nice predictable effect. E mostly consists of the uncertainty of the big investors, and the opportunism of the speculative traders. I mostly do reactive investments based on stock that has just moved in some significant way that companies that I have a lot of fundamental knowledge in (mostly IT industry companies). The way it works is I make a bet on whether the cause for the stock move has any fundamental effect on the future of the company. If I feel I can make that bet more accurately than guys reading the news sitting in cubicles analyzing graphs and industry summaries then I assume I can make a ~5%+ profit on a trade (with a chance of a similar loss of course). For example: The launch of the Kindle Fire by Amazon was a complete flop. This was widely anticipated, I felt very confident in that it would flop. The AMZN stock dropped as people lost confidence (E) in the Fire and I bought when I felt it was pretty much solid that everyone agreed that the Fire had flopped. Unfortunately I was naieve, and a few weeks later Amazon released its earnings report that undeniably confirmed the flop, and E was eliminated, and R adjusted causing another drop. At this point I was in the negative, so there was a lesson for me there. Anyway, my bet was that the Fire was just some largely irrelevant side strategy for Amazon. Sure they invested too much, and their chance for rivalling Apples iPad or whatever insane plan they had was ill conceived, but it was just something they had to try. The big plan of Amazon however did not suffer from this failure. They were still on track to becoming the force of nature they want to be so the lack of confidence (negative E) of the daytraders was in my opinion unjustified. A few months later this showed, the dip of the Fire was gone, and if I sold then I would've made a cool ~10%. I didn't sell though as I thought Amazon was a cool company to hold stock in for the long term, so the bet was just a gimmick to get some long term stock for cheap. I ended up making a lot more money on AMZN than I expected as for some reason the fact that Amazon makes a lot of money on AWS was big news to the financial world and slapped a big markup on the stock after which I sold, because I don't pretend to actually know what an Amazon stock should really be worth.
mtgx 11y ago
I was just thinking these past few days how AMD is highly undervalued and would likely see a big boost from the launch of Zen. Since Zen is still not launched yet, I think there's opportunity for the stock to grow even up to 100% or more from where it was. As a little side note, I think it's fantastic that AMD is replacing its E-series APUs that used Atom-like CPU cores in low-end notebooks, at a time when Intel is doing the exact opposite by replacing the Core micro-architecture in Celerons and Pentiums with Atom, so it can sell what are essentially $30-$40 chips for $107-$160. http://fudzilla.com/images/stories/2015/April/amd-desktop.jpg http://fudzilla.com/images/stories/2015/April/amd-desktop.jp... Intel did this because it thought AMD is no real competition technically, but more importantly from a brand point of view (Intel thought people will keep buying its chips at the same price points even if it replaces them with a much weaker core with many fewer hardware features). With Zen in general (thank you Jim Keller! [1]), but also with Zen in the low-end of the market, AMD just called Intel's bluff - and I think it will win this one while Intel is stuck with Atom in Celerons and Pentiums for the next few years. The dual-core Zen CPUs in the E-series should absolutely trash the Atom-based Celerons and Pentiums, and likely the scammy $280 Core M chip as well. APUs like the A4 and A6 were already destroying Atom-based Celerons in terms of price/performance. Looking forward to the quad-core/8 thread Zen APUs that will compete against the dual-core/4-thread Core i3 and Core i5 as well, and may even beat them on single-thread performance, if the price is equalized. From some calculations I've seen Zen may come within 10% of Intel's IPC at the same clock speed, even for Kaby Lake. But you may be able to get say an AMD chip that has the same performance as Core i3 in single-thread, almost twice the performance in multi-thread, and still cost 10% less. As another side note, I really hope Qualcomm ends up buying AMD, though it probably should've done it last year, and it may have done it, too, if it wasn't for their own Snapdragon 810 blunder, which almost got its board to sell the chip division (a huge mistake, which I'm glad they eventually rejected). Now the price is going to increase by 2x or more. Hopefully AMD's shareholders won't get greedy and sell for cheap, because AMD needs an infusion of cash as well, so it can adopt the latest process nodes as quickly as they are available, and so it can develop and launch multiple lines of products at the same time. That's how it can become much more competitive. I think Qualcomm would be a good steward of AMD (it already bought the mobile GPU division from AMD a decade ago, and has taken full advantage of it). It has the commitment and incentive to want to beat Intel and go after its profits in the PC and server markets, while operating on much lower cost structures (Innovator's Dilemma and all that). But it can't do that with ARM chips alone, in part because Windows' universal apps are still a no-show for now, and in part because ARM's entrance into the server market is going to be a very slow and long process. Qualcomm's entrance into those markets would be much accelerated through an AMD acquisition (as long as it's not bank-breaking one that starves Qualcomm out of resources to invest). Another decent buyer would be Samsung, but I only hope they do it if they are truly committed to being a chip powerhouse and to compete against Intel toe-to-toe, no matter how much it costs them to do it, otherwise it's better to stay out of it. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Keller_(engineer) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Keller_(engineer)
DebraHart7 11y ago
Intel loses thousands of jobs and AMD stock up 52% , it one meaning AMD does the best!
bitL 11y ago
- Intel plateaued, no significant user-appreciated progress in the past 5+ years - problems with scalable 10nm, 14nm might be the next 28nm for a while and all manufacturers will catch up, obliterating Intel's major advantage - Zen might be sufficiently competitive with older Core chips on performance, power and price, better on GPU side (hopefully not another Barcelona) - all major consoles run on AMD - Polaris vs Pascal - they might survive until 2017 and have cash to produce new chips
- ksec 11y ago
  Agree, last time the world had any significant CPU performance increase was SandyBridge, and that was the tipping point. Since then we have been using the same CPU performance with less energy usage. Apple already knows this that is why they continue to refine in other areas ( Macbook being a prime example ) rather then providing more and more performance where the user don't need / feel. Interestingly 2011 was also the year SSD were available in not so luxury price. It was the when 64GB dropped to around $100. Anandtech has been calling this as the largest performance upgrade in history. And I would agree you should trade SSD for ANY CPU performance. That is assuming you are not using some more then a decade old CPU or you already have 16+ GB memory. If the rumours are true then it is a combination of things making this a perfect storm ( not sure if that is the right way of putting it). Intel no longer has a significant lead in Fab node processing. The money from Mobile processor has help pure play foundry to catch up big time. Zen would offer significant performance increase that pass what most consider as enough ( for now ), and Intel hasn't had much performance gain with Skylake. Running along is the perfect match of new GPU coming from AMD. Which should be first the time ever AMD has a APU competitive with Intel in performance and run circles around Intel in GPU performance. This sounds all good good for AMD, that is until Intel provides more detail on Goldmont, their next gen Atom. Goldmont, and its Apollo Lake platform, provides all the essential features one would expect for the most common PC user for a very cheap price. Cherry Tail, based on Airmont was already doing well in Surface 3, if Goldmont as rumours suggest provides much higher IPC ( think Core2 Duo like performance rather then SandyBridge ) and comes with Skylake Gen9 GPU along with much cheaper price, this could be a tough battle. Can wait for both to reveal more details, 2016 will be an interesting year for PC.
inglor 11y ago
Everyone who has been paying attention has seen this coming. I've enjoyed getting my fair share since all the insider movement in the last month. Here are the recent financial articles about AMD: http://www.markets.co/analysts-bullish-on-top-technology-picks-23/24506/ http://www.markets.co/analysts-bullish-on-top-technology-pic... http://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2360810&headline=AMD-AMD-upgraded-to-Buy-on-THATC-joint-venture-potential-at-MKM-Partners http://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2360810&headline=AM... And all the bloggers : http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/04/22/buy-advanced-micro-devices-stock-after-a-36-price.aspx http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/04/22/buy-advance... http://amigobulls.com/articles/shorts-are-running-away-from-amd-stock http://amigobulls.com/articles/shorts-are-running-away-from-... http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/04/14/3-tech-stocks-that-could-soar-in-2016-2.aspx http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/04/14/3-tech-stoc... https://valuestocks.whotrades.com/blog/43296425516 https://valuestocks.whotrades.com/blog/43296425516 Here are all the insiders buying about 3 weeks ago: https://www.tipranks.com/insiders/harry-wolin https://www.tipranks.com/insiders/harry-wolin https://www.tipranks.com/insiders/forrest-eugene-norrod https://www.tipranks.com/insiders/forrest-eugene-norrod https://www.tipranks.com/insiders/devinder-kumar https://www.tipranks.com/insiders/devinder-kumar I took this from https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/amd https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/amd
- fragsworth 11y ago
  After looking at all those links, I couldn't see anything that would have predicted the deals they're expecting with console vendors. That's the main reason their revenue shot up.
- Hydraulix989 11y ago
  This reads like an ad for TipRanks.
  - inglor 11y ago
    Well, the alternative would have been posting the data without any attribution to where I got it from. Would that have been better? I also followed AMD in Google News but honestly couldn't find anything too interesting there.
m0rganic 11y ago
I worked for AMD in the x86 64bit multicore expansion days (2006ish) There really has been much since then except the ATI acquisition. Selling to Chinese manufacturers sound like a last ditch effort unfortunately.
Zenst 11y ago
This I suspect is more to do with the deal with China made today and times with the announcement as far as I can see as far as stock price climb. Would love to see a global hotspot map of share buying for this, might be Chinese investment, might be many things but certainly event driven. http://www.extremetech.com/computing/227059-amd-announces-new-293-million-joint-venture-to-build-servers-for-the-chinese-market http://www.extremetech.com/computing/227059-amd-announces-ne...
csense 11y ago
Intel Skylake on a Linux laptop is basically unusable (terrible power management driver issues kill battery life and may even lead to premature failure). See https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11492070 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11492070 Just one of the many ways Intel seems to be dropping the ball lately.
- tobz 11y ago
  Hell, Intel Haswell in Apple hardware (15" rMBP, mid-2015) rips through the battery, even on stock OS X. I've been at home, on AC power, starting around 9-10% battery, where it tells me 12+ hours until full charge. This laptop is 4 months old, and that scenario was only iTerm and Chrome open... :'(
- buzzrobot 11y ago
  Well, no, not precisely. The issue at hand affects only mobile Skylakes. Skylakes targeting desktop use are not affected. The caveat Intel published re: Skylakes is the same caveat it has published for the previous two generation of CPU's. What we seem to be lacking is actual evidence -- numbers -- that Linux users running on those units have seen more failures than users not running Linux.
based2 11y ago
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11548354 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11548354
ohaal 11y ago
Here's a good explanation of why AMD is on the rise: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSYBO1BrB1I https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSYBO1BrB1I
steplee 11y ago
Made 900$. I was probably the only one dumbest to have AMD stock, but when you have a feeling you have a feeling

242 points by neverminder 11y ago

Reminds me that Zen is coming in a few months too. bandwidth rumors: http://techfrag.com/2016/04/02/first-amd-zen-benchmarks-leaked/ http://techfrag.com/2016/04/02/first-amd-zen-benchmarks-leak... CERN rumors: http://seekingalpha.com/article/3961536-amd-zens-release-will-taking-names-kicking-bandwidth-sooner-rather-later http://seekingalpha.com/article/3961536-amd-zens-release-wil...

sveme 11y ago
OT: Seriously, I cannot read the seekingalpha article without installing their app? No way! Ad-blocking-related or is this the same for everyone?
- jhasse 11y ago
  its the same here without adblocking
- philippnagel 11y ago
  Works fine for me. Safari 9.0.3 with AdBlock.
- agumonkey 11y ago
  Sorry it happened, I had no issue on my side (otherwise I wouldn't have posted it). Here's a simpler rendering http://www.printfriendly.com/print/?source=homepage&url=http%3A%2F%2Fseekingalpha.com%2Farticle%2F3961536-amd-zens-release-will-taking-names-kicking-bandwidth-sooner-rather-later http://www.printfriendly.com/print/?source=homepage&url=http...
- tremon 11y ago
  No problem here with adblock+noscript
- rubyfan 11y ago
  I get the same when I click Read the Full Article
anonymfus 11y ago
Your first link is about april fools joke. http://www.bitsandchips.it/component/content/article/52-english-news/6815-speculations-about-zen-after-our-april-s-fool http://www.bitsandchips.it/component/content/article/52-engl...
- agumonkey 11y ago
  `facepalm` Hard to check a posteriori indirect articles from around 1st of april. Good catch.
_ph_ 11y ago
A 32 core zen would be extremely interesting, assuming it is affordable for mere mortals. It would be a great base for experimenting with developing multi-core algorithms.
revelation 11y ago
AMD is the leader in virtual reality? I can believe that it they mean in their own imaginary world, they are leading.
- rdsubhas 11y ago
  They are leading in virtual reality in virtual reality. So its got to be true.

celticninja 11y ago

Any news that would have influenced this?

tristanj 11y ago
They licensed their x86 tech to a Chinese company for $293 million https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11548354 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11548354
deleted 11y ago
[deleted]
lazyjones 11y ago
They slightly beat expectations, but that can't be the whole story. Might be something to do with Intel's recent weakness and restructuring (moving away from the PC market), perhaps the PS4.5 rumors...
deleted 11y ago
[deleted]
gruturo 11y ago
Yesterday's news of a joint venture to build servers for the chinese market? http://www.extremetech.com/computing/227059-amd-announces-new-293-million-joint-venture-to-build-servers-for-the-chinese-market http://www.extremetech.com/computing/227059-amd-announces-ne...
srikz 11y ago
One factor may be that they expect 1.5 billion in revenue from 3 devices (Playstation 4.5, Nintendo NX, Microsoft Xbox One.5???) [1] But the chinese deal is probably the main reason [1]: http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2016/04/amd-promises-three-new-gaming-processors-coming-soon-is-one-for-xbox/ http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2016/04/amd-promises-three-new...
- LoSboccacc 11y ago
  Also intel just had a big layoff and wants to call out from that segment

rajeemcariazo 11y ago

Is this related to the deal with Tianjin Haiguang Advanced Technology Investment Co?

shiftb 11y ago

Why? Is anyone else surprised that up 50% is $4?

tome 11y ago
Why do you think the price per share is relevant?
- kwsmith 11y ago
  Because while logically the price is irrelevant, in practice is isn't. Prices below $5 often indicate that a company is in trouble. Which I think is what the unfairly downvoted comment above was referring to.
  - tome 11y ago
    > Prices below $5 often indicate that a company is in trouble. Really? What are you basing that on?
    - nathank 11y ago
      Just read the comments below before posting again.
      - imtringued 11y ago
        Which comments? You do realise that the order of comments is influenced by votes and how recentley they were created? Either give us a proper explanation or a link to the comment you are refering to. Stock splits are only about convenience. Imagine if all we had are $100 bills. Buying groceries will be quite a hassle. The government then decides to do a split and let everyone exchange their $100 bills with 10 $10 bills. Everyone still has the same amount of cash but it's now easier for the average consumer to buy their groceries. How would the existence of a $10 bill mean the economy is in trouble?
        11y ago

tudorw 11y ago

$9.10 in 2011, 52% looks good on the day chart, not so good over 5 years...

zymhan 11y ago
Yeah, I bought some AMD stock when I thought it was undervalued at like $8. It just proceeded to fall a few bucks over the next year or two. It is cheap enough now to buy a few dozen shares and get an easy return if it rises, without hurting too much if it falls again. And it's not like AMD is going out of business anytime soon. Certainly the value of their IP and assets would justify a floor in the stock price.

chx 11y ago

So AMD bought ATI for 5.4B only a year later wrote down 2.65B of it, valuing ATI at 2.75B in 2007. Currently AMD is worth 3B, valuing the AMD part of the company roughly zero provided ATI had at least 1% growth in each of the past nine years. Licensing out what a bit ago would've been the crown jewels for $.3B makes a lot of sense in these circumstances.

PhantomGremlin 11y ago
If you go back about 35 years (I'm too lazy to look up the exact details), AMD was a bigger company than Intel, both in revenue and in market cap. And then the IBM PC happened, and the rest, as they say, is history.
- deleted 11y ago
  [deleted]
- chx 11y ago
  Really. In 1971, AMD was selling 4.6M, Intel 9.4M. In 1978 AMD had $100M in total sales and Intel had 400M. https://books.google.ca/books?id=GTwEAAAAMBAJ&pg=PT51&lpg=PT51&dq=%22amd%22+1984+sales&source=bl&ots=CzMSb3o5mk&sig=gmfB509HsVPBbjJQb2zNu-BaSPc&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiararOwKTMAhUJ6WMKHWTpA8sQ6AEIIDAC#v=onepage&q=%22amd%22%201984%20sales&f=false https://books.google.ca/books?id=GTwEAAAAMBAJ&pg=PT51&lpg=PT... this page has both '84 and '90 with Intel outselling and outprofiting AMD several times over. So when was that mysterious year if it was not in the seventies or the eighties?
  - PhantomGremlin 11y ago
    I was thinking around 1980 or 1985, back before IBM PC and clones became popular. Turns out I was wrong, Intel was about 2x to 4x larger than AMD in those days. I went back and got some hard figures. I had to average yearly high/low stock price to compute historical market cap. All values in $millions: 1980 1985 1990 ttm / yesterday ---- ---- ---- ---- AMD sales 309 576 1059 3990 mkt cap 446 1672 617 3170 INTC sales 855 1365 3921 55360 mkt cap 1667 3091 7990 149260 In 1985 Intel sales are 2.37x AMD and market cap is 1.85x. Currently Intel sales are 13.8x AMD and market cap is 47x.

pearjuice 11y ago

It is quite surprising that AMD has been undervalued for so long. Would't be surprised by more radical upwards corrections.

arca_vorago 11y ago
I have a slightly different take on AMD these days, in that I don't think they were undervalued, at least not too much, but rather I think they saw the direction the future held and jumped at it, thinking they would be ahead of intel, mostly in their understanding of the merging of cpu and gpu. I simply think they did it a bit too fast and left their other offerings with too little resources, but now that they are using the 14nm and 16nm manufacturing process, Zen is poised to be a much heavier hitter than I think most people understand yet. So they werent undervalued too much, but they are now, and so I think you are probably correct about more radical upwards corrections. I am especially excited to see their server cpus with zen. My favorite machine I have ever built is actually an AMD machine, and I built it fairly recently because there are some models in which they excel. (Its a quad opteron 6380 system for a total of 64 cores at 2.5ghz, and I did it for less than 5k$ Something I theorycrafted while in bioinformatics, though I didnt get to buld it until I was no longer in that industry.) Also, I'll say that I have been looking at building a new system for my gamedev purposes, and I have concluded that I am going to wait for Zen. If they miss the q4 2016 release though they may lose the mindshare momentum they are bulding up.
- tcoppi 11y ago
  The ATI acquisition was very forward looking, the problem is the hardware and software stack required to make APUs successful was nowhere close to ready at the time. We are just now seeing small enough process nodes that can support real GPU performance on the same die as a decent CPU, though the software isn't there yet still it is much closer. If Zen can match/beat Intel and it scales well enough down to APUs I think they might finally find their market, and Zen on the server should be a killer as well if that is the case, as AMD has always done really well at shoving lots of cores in small packages.
- scholia 11y ago

hoodoof 11y ago

Anyone care to predict if I invested say $1,000 ASAP open trading, if I would be up or down 24 hours after that?

charlesdm 11y ago
No one can predict the market, but 52% is a massive jump for single trading day. For a stock that has been declining/underwater for so long, it wouldn't be unusual for some people to cut their losses and move on.
umrashrf 11y ago
"Buy when everyone is selling and Sell when everyone is buying."
- tinco 11y ago
  I reason about jumps like this in terms of two components. A 'real' component and an 'emotional' component. When a stock moves it moves R% + E%, for real and emotional. The real component in this case seems to be the 200MM+ deal they struck that. R and E are of course unknown, the big investors make their money calculating these values as best they can. Calculating R is hard to do precisely for an amateur (such as me), but E has a nice predictable effect. E mostly consists of the uncertainty of the big investors, and the opportunism of the speculative traders. I mostly do reactive investments based on stock that has just moved in some significant way that companies that I have a lot of fundamental knowledge in (mostly IT industry companies). The way it works is I make a bet on whether the cause for the stock move has any fundamental effect on the future of the company. If I feel I can make that bet more accurately than guys reading the news sitting in cubicles analyzing graphs and industry summaries then I assume I can make a ~5%+ profit on a trade (with a chance of a similar loss of course). For example: The launch of the Kindle Fire by Amazon was a complete flop. This was widely anticipated, I felt very confident in that it would flop. The AMZN stock dropped as people lost confidence (E) in the Fire and I bought when I felt it was pretty much solid that everyone agreed that the Fire had flopped. Unfortunately I was naieve, and a few weeks later Amazon released its earnings report that undeniably confirmed the flop, and E was eliminated, and R adjusted causing another drop. At this point I was in the negative, so there was a lesson for me there. Anyway, my bet was that the Fire was just some largely irrelevant side strategy for Amazon. Sure they invested too much, and their chance for rivalling Apples iPad or whatever insane plan they had was ill conceived, but it was just something they had to try. The big plan of Amazon however did not suffer from this failure. They were still on track to becoming the force of nature they want to be so the lack of confidence (negative E) of the daytraders was in my opinion unjustified. A few months later this showed, the dip of the Fire was gone, and if I sold then I would've made a cool ~10%. I didn't sell though as I thought Amazon was a cool company to hold stock in for the long term, so the bet was just a gimmick to get some long term stock for cheap. I ended up making a lot more money on AMZN than I expected as for some reason the fact that Amazon makes a lot of money on AWS was big news to the financial world and slapped a big markup on the stock after which I sold, because I don't pretend to actually know what an Amazon stock should really be worth.

mtgx 11y ago

I was just thinking these past few days how AMD is highly undervalued and would likely see a big boost from the launch of Zen. Since Zen is still not launched yet, I think there's opportunity for the stock to grow even up to 100% or more from where it was. As a little side note, I think it's fantastic that AMD is replacing its E-series APUs that used Atom-like CPU cores in low-end notebooks, at a time when Intel is doing the exact opposite by replacing the Core micro-architecture in Celerons and Pentiums with Atom, so it can sell what are essentially $30-$40 chips for $107-$160. http://fudzilla.com/images/stories/2015/April/amd-desktop.jpg http://fudzilla.com/images/stories/2015/April/amd-desktop.jp... Intel did this because it thought AMD is no real competition technically, but more importantly from a brand point of view (Intel thought people will keep buying its chips at the same price points even if it replaces them with a much weaker core with many fewer hardware features). With Zen in general (thank you Jim Keller! [1]), but also with Zen in the low-end of the market, AMD just called Intel's bluff - and I think it will win this one while Intel is stuck with Atom in Celerons and Pentiums for the next few years. The dual-core Zen CPUs in the E-series should absolutely trash the Atom-based Celerons and Pentiums, and likely the scammy $280 Core M chip as well. APUs like the A4 and A6 were already destroying Atom-based Celerons in terms of price/performance. Looking forward to the quad-core/8 thread Zen APUs that will compete against the dual-core/4-thread Core i3 and Core i5 as well, and may even beat them on single-thread performance, if the price is equalized. From some calculations I've seen Zen may come within 10% of Intel's IPC at the same clock speed, even for Kaby Lake. But you may be able to get say an AMD chip that has the same performance as Core i3 in single-thread, almost twice the performance in multi-thread, and still cost 10% less. As another side note, I really hope Qualcomm ends up buying AMD, though it probably should've done it last year, and it may have done it, too, if it wasn't for their own Snapdragon 810 blunder, which almost got its board to sell the chip division (a huge mistake, which I'm glad they eventually rejected). Now the price is going to increase by 2x or more. Hopefully AMD's shareholders won't get greedy and sell for cheap, because AMD needs an infusion of cash as well, so it can adopt the latest process nodes as quickly as they are available, and so it can develop and launch multiple lines of products at the same time. That's how it can become much more competitive. I think Qualcomm would be a good steward of AMD (it already bought the mobile GPU division from AMD a decade ago, and has taken full advantage of it). It has the commitment and incentive to want to beat Intel and go after its profits in the PC and server markets, while operating on much lower cost structures (Innovator's Dilemma and all that). But it can't do that with ARM chips alone, in part because Windows' universal apps are still a no-show for now, and in part because ARM's entrance into the server market is going to be a very slow and long process. Qualcomm's entrance into those markets would be much accelerated through an AMD acquisition (as long as it's not bank-breaking one that starves Qualcomm out of resources to invest). Another decent buyer would be Samsung, but I only hope they do it if they are truly committed to being a chip powerhouse and to compete against Intel toe-to-toe, no matter how much it costs them to do it, otherwise it's better to stay out of it. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Keller_(engineer) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Keller_(engineer)

DebraHart7 11y ago

Intel loses thousands of jobs and AMD stock up 52% , it one meaning AMD does the best!

bitL 11y ago

- Intel plateaued, no significant user-appreciated progress in the past 5+ years - problems with scalable 10nm, 14nm might be the next 28nm for a while and all manufacturers will catch up, obliterating Intel's major advantage - Zen might be sufficiently competitive with older Core chips on performance, power and price, better on GPU side (hopefully not another Barcelona) - all major consoles run on AMD - Polaris vs Pascal - they might survive until 2017 and have cash to produce new chips

ksec 11y ago
Agree, last time the world had any significant CPU performance increase was SandyBridge, and that was the tipping point. Since then we have been using the same CPU performance with less energy usage. Apple already knows this that is why they continue to refine in other areas ( Macbook being a prime example ) rather then providing more and more performance where the user don't need / feel. Interestingly 2011 was also the year SSD were available in not so luxury price. It was the when 64GB dropped to around $100. Anandtech has been calling this as the largest performance upgrade in history. And I would agree you should trade SSD for ANY CPU performance. That is assuming you are not using some more then a decade old CPU or you already have 16+ GB memory. If the rumours are true then it is a combination of things making this a perfect storm ( not sure if that is the right way of putting it). Intel no longer has a significant lead in Fab node processing. The money from Mobile processor has help pure play foundry to catch up big time. Zen would offer significant performance increase that pass what most consider as enough ( for now ), and Intel hasn't had much performance gain with Skylake. Running along is the perfect match of new GPU coming from AMD. Which should be first the time ever AMD has a APU competitive with Intel in performance and run circles around Intel in GPU performance. This sounds all good good for AMD, that is until Intel provides more detail on Goldmont, their next gen Atom. Goldmont, and its Apollo Lake platform, provides all the essential features one would expect for the most common PC user for a very cheap price. Cherry Tail, based on Airmont was already doing well in Surface 3, if Goldmont as rumours suggest provides much higher IPC ( think Core2 Duo like performance rather then SandyBridge ) and comes with Skylake Gen9 GPU along with much cheaper price, this could be a tough battle. Can wait for both to reveal more details, 2016 will be an interesting year for PC.

inglor 11y ago

Everyone who has been paying attention has seen this coming. I've enjoyed getting my fair share since all the insider movement in the last month. Here are the recent financial articles about AMD: http://www.markets.co/analysts-bullish-on-top-technology-picks-23/24506/ http://www.markets.co/analysts-bullish-on-top-technology-pic... http://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2360810&headline=AMD-AMD-upgraded-to-Buy-on-THATC-joint-venture-potential-at-MKM-Partners http://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2360810&headline=AM... And all the bloggers : http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/04/22/buy-advanced-micro-devices-stock-after-a-36-price.aspx http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/04/22/buy-advance... http://amigobulls.com/articles/shorts-are-running-away-from-amd-stock http://amigobulls.com/articles/shorts-are-running-away-from-... http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/04/14/3-tech-stocks-that-could-soar-in-2016-2.aspx http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/04/14/3-tech-stoc... https://valuestocks.whotrades.com/blog/43296425516 https://valuestocks.whotrades.com/blog/43296425516 Here are all the insiders buying about 3 weeks ago: https://www.tipranks.com/insiders/harry-wolin https://www.tipranks.com/insiders/harry-wolin https://www.tipranks.com/insiders/forrest-eugene-norrod https://www.tipranks.com/insiders/forrest-eugene-norrod https://www.tipranks.com/insiders/devinder-kumar https://www.tipranks.com/insiders/devinder-kumar I took this from https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/amd https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/amd

fragsworth 11y ago
After looking at all those links, I couldn't see anything that would have predicted the deals they're expecting with console vendors. That's the main reason their revenue shot up.
Hydraulix989 11y ago
This reads like an ad for TipRanks.
- inglor 11y ago
  Well, the alternative would have been posting the data without any attribution to where I got it from. Would that have been better? I also followed AMD in Google News but honestly couldn't find anything too interesting there.

m0rganic 11y ago

I worked for AMD in the x86 64bit multicore expansion days (2006ish) There really has been much since then except the ATI acquisition. Selling to Chinese manufacturers sound like a last ditch effort unfortunately.

Zenst 11y ago

This I suspect is more to do with the deal with China made today and times with the announcement as far as I can see as far as stock price climb. Would love to see a global hotspot map of share buying for this, might be Chinese investment, might be many things but certainly event driven. http://www.extremetech.com/computing/227059-amd-announces-new-293-million-joint-venture-to-build-servers-for-the-chinese-market http://www.extremetech.com/computing/227059-amd-announces-ne...

csense 11y ago

Intel Skylake on a Linux laptop is basically unusable (terrible power management driver issues kill battery life and may even lead to premature failure). See https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11492070 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11492070 Just one of the many ways Intel seems to be dropping the ball lately.

tobz 11y ago
Hell, Intel Haswell in Apple hardware (15" rMBP, mid-2015) rips through the battery, even on stock OS X. I've been at home, on AC power, starting around 9-10% battery, where it tells me 12+ hours until full charge. This laptop is 4 months old, and that scenario was only iTerm and Chrome open... :'(
buzzrobot 11y ago
Well, no, not precisely. The issue at hand affects only mobile Skylakes. Skylakes targeting desktop use are not affected. The caveat Intel published re: Skylakes is the same caveat it has published for the previous two generation of CPU's. What we seem to be lacking is actual evidence -- numbers -- that Linux users running on those units have seen more failures than users not running Linux.

based2 11y ago

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11548354 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11548354

ohaal 11y ago

Here's a good explanation of why AMD is on the rise: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSYBO1BrB1I https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSYBO1BrB1I

steplee 11y ago

Made 900$. I was probably the only one dumbest to have AMD stock, but when you have a feeling you have a feeling