vanniv

20 ms·

121.
by vanniv 7y ago
Isn't it interesting how, in every country, the only methods being considered or implemented to aid this "crisis" are the ones that are identical to the behaviors of authoritarians?
122.
by vanniv 7y ago
That's why in the US after the president ordered the FDA to approve Choloroquine for use against COVID, the FDA immediately came out and demanded that it not be used, except for "compassionate use" in the most severe cases (p
123.
by vanniv 7y ago
With a virus such as that, perhaps we would actually be allowed to use the treatments that get developed, instead of being told to let people die because "we want to do more studies" forever
124.
by vanniv 7y ago
Because video chat exists, I am currently alive
125.
by vanniv 7y ago
Your source is yet another avenue for deaths to occur without being counted. My flu and pneumonia data came from https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html Check out the disclaimer on that page, too (even ro
126.
by vanniv 7y ago
If we all just stay in our houses forever, we all die anyway. Might as well risk living before we die.
127.
by vanniv 7y ago
1:. We have already lost trillions of dollars 2: 12 months of not actually living is already giving up about 1.3% of the life of our whole population, and that's not counting the health problems caused by poverty or the mental health c
128.
by vanniv 7y ago
I did some back-of-the-envelope maths on this topic using South Korea stats, Diamond Princess stats, and the CDC Influenza and All-cause-pneumonia death dashboard. Assuming that South Korea catches most of their cases and Diamond Princess c
129.
by vanniv 7y ago
The cost of healthcare for all of the illness even if 100% of the population got the virus this month is less than the economic destruction our self-imposed economic sanctions have already caused even if they ended today.
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by vanniv 7y ago
Unless you have the military enforce the lockdown, people will eventually refuse to starve quietly in their houses and will brave the "terrifying" 1% chance of death from COVID to go back to being alive. Honestly, with the governo
131.
by vanniv 7y ago
I'm not sure that everyone staying at home for "several months" is sustainable. Actually, I'm sure it is not.
132.
by vanniv 7y ago
Those issues assumed a full ship, like the Diamond Princess situation. But, if all of the "passengers" were patients, and you only used balcony rooms (to have extra airflow available), and only used half of even those, would th
133.
by vanniv 7y ago
Cruise ships aren't bad options either. I hear they're a bit underutilized
134.
by vanniv 7y ago
No, because the concept of BS jobs is largely BS.
135.
by vanniv 7y ago
Viruses generally become milder because of selective pressure to do so. If it kills the host, it doesn't get to spread as much. Plus, of you get slightly sick, you probably continue your life and infect others. If you get horridly si
136.
by vanniv 7y ago
Those high rates are also dependant upon the fraction of cases detected. We are currently seeing about a 9% hospitalization rate based on detected cases. If we are really missing 75% of cases, then true hospitalization is only about 2.3%
137.
by vanniv 7y ago
Don't underestimate the number of people whose lives will ultimately be shortened by the economic harm being done in panic over the virus.
138.
by vanniv 7y ago
Paracetamol is the same compound as Acetaminophen, and is sold under the Tylenol brand in the US.
139.
by vanniv 7y ago
These serve different purposes. If you are already infected, a vaccine is not useful. But regardless, there is no approved treatment for COVID. Gilead's new antiviral looks promising, and the Chloroquine/Azithromycin combo looks p
140.
by vanniv 7y ago
Don't worry, the current set of actions being undertaken will cause 100% jobless rate as hiding a job becomes illegal.
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by vanniv 7y ago
Is it really a pretext if it is the intent?
142.
by vanniv 7y ago
There is virtually no chance that 85% of the population will get covid-19
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by vanniv 7y ago
To quote that article: In civilian life, natural selection favors a mild strain. Those who get very ill stay home, and those mildly ill continue with their lives, preferentially spreading the mild strain. In the trenches, natural selection
144.
by vanniv 7y ago
Of course, if you ever let up on the lockdown, the disease will immediately start spreading again.
145.
by vanniv 7y ago
Some will. Possibly more than would have if we spread the illness over time. But that set of outcomes has risks and costs too. But regardless, it isn't really clear that the curve-flattening efforts are even effective. Italy is clear
146.
by vanniv 7y ago
That is not 12% of cases. That is 12% of hospitalizations are under the age for 50. The overall hospitalization rate is difficult to know, due to the huge inaccuracies in the case numbers.
147.
by vanniv 7y ago
Certain? No. Nobody can realistically be certain yet. There is only one case that I've been able to find of a person who was diagnosed twice that can't easily be explained away as having been discharged while still infected. An
148.
by vanniv 7y ago
The best source I found on the subject -- a disease modeler with CDC who was giving an interview -- said that their current estimates used 5-day doubling, 15-day median time to death, and 1% CFR to do their estimates. For the modeler, the p
149.
by vanniv 7y ago
It is very much more likely that, as it mutates, it will be to a less-deadly virus. Evolutionary pressure works that way -- as a less-deadly version will spread faster and outcompete a more-deadly version (because it won't kill as many
150.
by vanniv 7y ago
The average age of a fatal case is still north on 80 years. The UK plan is effectively to get as many people as possible that are young, and thus at a super low risk of needing hospitalization to get infected, so that they can recover and t

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