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It is very much more likely that, as it mutates, it will be to a less-deadly virus. Evolutionary pressure works that way -- as a less-deadly version will sprea
by vanniv 7y ago
It is very much more likely that, as it mutates, it will be to a less-deadly virus.
Evolutionary pressure works that way -- as a less-deadly version will spread faster and outcompete a more-deadly version (because it won't kill as many hosts -- dead hosts cease spreading -- and because less-ill hosts are less likely to stay in bed until better, thus encountering more people and thus more spread)
This is why, broadly, endemic diseases like influenza become less lethal over time
It's why severe influenzas are usually those that just mutated to cross over to humans from some other animal -- like swine flu from last decade, which was not that deadly to swine, but remarkably so to humans those first seasons, or avian flus which also have appeared occasionally.
The Spanish Flu was one of those -- an Avian flu that had newly mutated to infect humans.
- pubby 7y agoSpanish Flu mutated into a far deadlier version over time because it spread faster in hospitals and troop transports than on the streets. We may see a similar situation with corona virus if the quarantines and social distancing are too effective. Ideally, we want most cases to be transmitted from the weak cold-like corona virus cases, not the lung-infesting killer cases. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Deadly_second_wave https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Deadly_second_wave
- vanniv 7y agoTo quote that article: In civilian life, natural selection favors a mild strain. Those who get very ill stay home, and those mildly ill continue with their lives, preferentially spreading the mild strain. In the trenches, natural selection was reversed. Soldiers with a mild strain stayed where they were, while the severely ill were sent on crowded trains to crowded field hospitals, spreading the deadlier virus.
- Zenst 7y agoGiven that, the UK policy seems to make more sense now, thank you.