vandemonian

4 ms·

1.
by vandemonian 3y ago
What if instead of infotainment, news coverage was like the weather forecast? I've made a Trump dashboard, using probabilities from prediction markets... You can see the latest odds on Trump, including: - winning the NH primary, - appe
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Threads 24% likely to overtake Twitter, down from 49% say prediction markets(baseratetimes.com)
34 points by vandemonian 3y ago|53 comments
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Show HN: Using AI to summarize news into 3 bullet points(baseratetimes.com)
1 points by vandemonian 3y ago|0 comments
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Debt ceiling: US risk of default doubles, according to 'superforecasters'(baseratetimes.com)
2 points by vandemonian 3y ago|0 comments
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by vandemonian 3y ago
Based on some feedback I got on twitter, I've added collapsible links to the site. It should feel less info dense now. Would be curious to know what people think!
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by vandemonian 3y ago
There are 'real money' prediction markets, where if you bet wrong you lose your money. One of the biggest is called Polymarket Even on 'play money' markets like Metaculus, a lot of the volume comes from people passionate
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by vandemonian 3y ago
Exactly! Putting proper 'base rates' next to an article, so the reader as the quantitative context. Supposedly that info gets incorporated into prediction markets. 'Forecasting best practice' starts by looking at long-te
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by vandemonian 3y ago
Thank you for checking it out Actually I don't love the animated scroll-down either, but the info junkie in me wanted to put all the info on one single page. The way I use the site is by skimming from top to bottom, similar to reading
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Show HN: I made a news site built on prediction markets(baseratetimes.com)
9 points by vandemonian 3y ago|9 comments