4 ms·

Show HN: I made a news site built on prediction markets

9 points by vandemonian 3y ago

Goal is to be kinda like The Economist meets Metaculus Just a quick MVP, would love to hear any feedback

themodelplumber 3y ago
That's really cool to see, thanks for showing it to us. Feedback-wise...I think I vote for page loads and URLs over animated scroll-downs if that's ever up for a vote. :-) It's always nice to have new perspectives on the news for sure. Way to go!
- vandemonian 3y ago
  Thank you for checking it out Actually I don't love the animated scroll-down either, but the info junkie in me wanted to put all the info on one single page. The way I use the site is by skimming from top to bottom, similar to reading a newspaper - the menu is there just in case Appreciate the feedback, consider your voted counted!
ada1981 3y ago
This is cool, I’ve been wanting to see more data driven news. I’m also curious about context for current news… So along side an article about a school shooting, it presents data on how many school shootings, is the trend increasing, other dangers, etc.
- vandemonian 3y ago
  Exactly! Putting proper 'base rates' next to an article, so the reader as the quantitative context. Supposedly that info gets incorporated into prediction markets. 'Forecasting best practice' starts by looking at long-term historical averages to give a sense of the underlying frequency of an event...
  - ada1981 3y ago
    I've often envisioned a future where instead of a stream of headlines of sensationalized news, people just see a KPI dashboard for their life, their family, community and the world. I'm curious how to approach building that or what already exists.
eimrine 3y ago
I am interested in conception of prediction markets. Are there any implementations where voting costs a little but never free and the voters of correct variant earns money from voters of not correct variant? I can not believe the voting where some dumb actors (spammers, bots, random clickers) use to vote as well as real experts.
- vandemonian 3y ago
  There are 'real money' prediction markets, where if you bet wrong you lose your money. One of the biggest is called Polymarket Even on 'play money' markets like Metaculus, a lot of the volume comes from people passionate about forecasting accurately (which is why they do it for imaginary internet points). As you can imagine, someone who makes predictions about geopolitics in a quantitative, falsifiable way for fun is typically pretty clever (myself excluded)
vandemonian 3y ago
Based on some feedback I got on twitter, I've added collapsible links to the site. It should feel less info dense now. Would be curious to know what people think!
hhuynh1507 3y ago
Very exciting stuff! Will be following this page with great interest.

9 points by vandemonian 3y ago

Goal is to be kinda like The Economist meets Metaculus Just a quick MVP, would love to hear any feedback

That's really cool to see, thanks for showing it to us. Feedback-wise...I think I vote for page loads and URLs over animated scroll-downs if that's ever up for a vote. :-) It's always nice to have new perspectives on the news for sure. Way to go!

vandemonian 3y ago
Thank you for checking it out Actually I don't love the animated scroll-down either, but the info junkie in me wanted to put all the info on one single page. The way I use the site is by skimming from top to bottom, similar to reading a newspaper - the menu is there just in case Appreciate the feedback, consider your voted counted!

ada1981 3y ago

This is cool, I’ve been wanting to see more data driven news. I’m also curious about context for current news… So along side an article about a school shooting, it presents data on how many school shootings, is the trend increasing, other dangers, etc.

vandemonian 3y ago
Exactly! Putting proper 'base rates' next to an article, so the reader as the quantitative context. Supposedly that info gets incorporated into prediction markets. 'Forecasting best practice' starts by looking at long-term historical averages to give a sense of the underlying frequency of an event...
- ada1981 3y ago
  I've often envisioned a future where instead of a stream of headlines of sensationalized news, people just see a KPI dashboard for their life, their family, community and the world. I'm curious how to approach building that or what already exists.

eimrine 3y ago

I am interested in conception of prediction markets. Are there any implementations where voting costs a little but never free and the voters of correct variant earns money from voters of not correct variant? I can not believe the voting where some dumb actors (spammers, bots, random clickers) use to vote as well as real experts.

vandemonian 3y ago
There are 'real money' prediction markets, where if you bet wrong you lose your money. One of the biggest is called Polymarket Even on 'play money' markets like Metaculus, a lot of the volume comes from people passionate about forecasting accurately (which is why they do it for imaginary internet points). As you can imagine, someone who makes predictions about geopolitics in a quantitative, falsifiable way for fun is typically pretty clever (myself excluded)

vandemonian 3y ago

Based on some feedback I got on twitter, I've added collapsible links to the site. It should feel less info dense now. Would be curious to know what people think!

hhuynh1507 3y ago

Very exciting stuff! Will be following this page with great interest.