usaar333

38 ms·

451.
by usaar333 6y ago
A single day means nothing - there's high daily variance just from reporting issues and test sites not being open on weekends. Alemada County is alright by California standards, but is the worse performing Bay Area county (hospitalizat
452.
by usaar333 6y ago
Ironically, Santa Clara county was the one that permitted Broadcom to open up 2 weeks and require that workers who could perfectly well work from home come in weekly shifts.
453.
by usaar333 6y ago
The Bay Area has high testing and contact tracing ability. As an extreme, Santa Clara County (just south of Tesla) is at a 1.5% weekly positive rate and contact tracing every positive.
454.
by usaar333 6y ago
Is a 99.9% specitivity good enough though to conclude you had covid? Assuming you are in the US, your prior on having been infected in early February is well below 0.1% (not sure how much the covid-like symptoms would boost that). So condit
455.
by usaar333 6y ago
That is one path. You'd probably need to require daily covid tests afterward though for a few days. PCR has a 100% false negative rate the day of infection.
456.
by usaar333 6y ago
I don't entirely blame the media. Some of this is over-pessimism on public health officials. For instance in the Bay Area, the SIP's argument was justified primarily from hospital capacity ( https://www.sccgov.org/s
457.
by usaar333 6y ago
Was it? It reads about the same as the Bay Area's, possibly even a bit looser.
458.
by usaar333 6y ago
That's a bit of a stretch of what he said ( https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/ny-gov-cuomo-says-its-shocki... ). * Hospitalizations, not cases and not infections. That skews old/out of the workforce. *
459.
by usaar333 6y ago
I was aware basically every expat used a VPN/roaming cell service. Your home internet is unusable if you don't.
460.
by usaar333 6y ago
Clever experimental set-up (tl;dr they detect whether novel content first sent between non-China accounts increases the probability of it being censored in realtime when being sent to China accounts -- and it does -- implying a censor (or p
461.
by usaar333 6y ago
And less reason to order delivery. At least if you own a car, driving to pick your own food up is easier now (less traffic, no parking issues, you are less likely to be in a social event that prevents you from leaving). And one less potent
462.
by usaar333 7y ago
No. Not for a long time in fact
463.
by usaar333 7y ago
They were already open. It's expanded from "essential workers" to "businesses that are allowed to have facilities open". (not much of an increase?)
464.
by usaar333 7y ago
We're more or less already there: https://abc7news.com/bay-area-coronavirus-update-california-...
465.
by usaar333 7y ago
Bay Area is well below CA as a whole. Cases have grown by ~375/million in last 14 days to proxy for "active" cases. Santa Clara County's growth is only ~235/million
466.
by usaar333 7y ago
Bay Area has dropped significantly: https://covid-19.direct/metro/BayArea Santa Clara has dropped even more significantly: https://covid-19.direct/county/CA/Santa%20Clara . It's at 10 ca
467.
by usaar333 7y ago
Interesting metrics. Indicator 1 (cases) and 2 (hospitalization) are clearly met. Indicator 3 (test capacity) has a very aggressive target. 200 tests a day per 100k? Why must it be this high? (Germany by comparison, opening schools now, i
468.
by usaar333 7y ago
Completely different. Tamiflu blocks influenza viruses from being released from its host cell ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuraminidase_inhibitor ) Remdesivir interferes with viral replication itself ( https:/&#
469.
by usaar333 7y ago
That's from a more powered US trial, not the one in China. The argument is that Giliad basically got "unlucky" with this China one (insignificant number of patients/deaths to nullify hypothesis Remdesivir does work)
470.
by usaar333 7y ago
Exactly. The thing people may also forget who have a long time horizon is that this is actually a bad thing. Returns are likely historically low going forward which is bad for your future retirement.
471.
by usaar333 7y ago
> It's a bear rally. People were saying that when the market jumped back above 2250. It's improbable we'll get that low again.
472.
by usaar333 7y ago
> The trailing (!) S&P P/E is greater than 20 right now. The Fed is supporting prices above their historical mean/median of 15. It makes zero sense, from a financial standpoint, unless the market is pricing in substantial i
473.
by usaar333 7y ago
I'm impressed you can both work full time with a preschooler at home. On my end, I've found the class zoom meetings not very useful - the kids in the class (including mine) just get disengaged with no parent helping them out.
474.
by usaar333 7y ago
That is not true in Santa Clara county at all. 600 to 1000 tests per day in 2 weeks https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard.aspx
475.
by usaar333 7y ago
Legal enforcement is weak but it is absolutely against the rules (I actually verified this with the health office) and social pressure (neighbors, each other) encourages parents to comply.
476.
by usaar333 7y ago
Those aren't really metrics - it's very subjective. e.g. I read those 6 metrics and I'm like "ok, Bay Area can lift SIP".
477.
by usaar333 7y ago
I'm confused how the SF chronicle is calculating numbers. Santa Clara added 183 cases in last 7 days vs. 256 in the previous week (quite a downturn in the face of increasing test capacity). They might have gotten hit by a glitch where
478.
by usaar333 7y ago
It's an incredible class divide: * Essential workers (who make less) required to work and get infected at higher rates, both at work and from their essential worker housemates. * We permit anyone (even non-essential workers) to hire a
479.
by usaar333 7y ago
> It's true that people are discharged from the hospital eventually (one way or another), so there's a little extra room from that, but not much. No, you need to account for that. We're at steady-state to decreasing hospit
480.
by usaar333 7y ago
I'm not following your math. On a serial interval of 4, 7 rounds of infection does take a month, but that's only 1.1^7 = 2.

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