usaar333

74 ms·

481.
by usaar333 7y ago
Note that is CA as a whole. LA is skewing it upward. e.g. CA was around 1250 new cases 2nd week of April and maybe 1200 now (4% lower). With test capacity increasing, rt.live is giving 0.88, which on a 4 day serial interval implies a 33% ac
482.
by usaar333 7y ago
Various data points. This is an upper bound, more calculated for Santa Clara county. International comparisons to lockdown level and case count changes. Assuming serial interval of 4 and > 10x non-detection rate on March 31 and 3x now gi
483.
by usaar333 7y ago
We should separate LA from ex-LA. Bay area has peaked.. if you exclude nursing homes (which the lockdown relatively failed to protect), it's even sharper of a drop. https://covid-19.direct/metro/BayArea
484.
by usaar333 7y ago
Sweden is taking a lot of death though. I prefer looking at Norway or Germany, countries that haven't taken high death hits and opening up with higher daily case counts per capita than us.
485.
by usaar333 7y ago
Multiple counties have already confirmed they are contact tracing every case. The Bay Area has a lower per capita daily case rate than Germany who is opening schools. This should be manageable.
486.
by usaar333 7y ago
Without social distancing or contact tracing. The Bay Area's r is probably around 0.8 at this point with Santa Clara even lower (EDITED - see notes below). Some restrictions can be relaxed.
487.
by usaar333 7y ago
Deaths without comorbidities are relatively rare. Santa Clara's dashboard shows 5% of all deaths. You could ballpark a 1/1000 order of magnitude chance of death from an infection. In some sense that is pretty high compared to the
488.
by usaar333 7y ago
Management consulting firms don't recruit from most state schools.
489.
by usaar333 7y ago
Private schools are a crap-shoot. Over a decade ago, a small group of us (mixed white/asian) in high school had similar numbers and got rejected at all privates we applied to. Zero issue with the University of California system though
490.
by usaar333 7y ago
> The latest on the COVID-19 R0 is a median of 5.7 Pet peeve of mine: R0 is not a property of a virus; it's a property of a virus in a certain environment. 5.7 is the estimate for covid-19 in Wuhan, a dense environment. It is nowhe
491.
by usaar333 7y ago
> (in SF, daily number of deaths is still rising) Huh? It's more or less flat. https://covid-19.direct/county/CA/San%20Francisco?tab=peakde... In fact probably better than flat - 2 deaths in last 7 days is
492.
by usaar333 7y ago
Perhaps a lot of those deaths were outside hospitals (nursing homes, etc.)? Here's a report for all hospitalizations in NYC from March 1 to April 4: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2765
493.
by usaar333 7y ago
Are they not taking public transit? Your friends must be some of the most unlucky people ever. The Bay Area has had under 3k cases since the start of April outside group living settings (nursing homes, homeless shelters, etc.). That's
494.
by usaar333 7y ago
Except this data is also lagging by three weeks, depending on what antibodies are being checked. Some deaths today have come from infections in April, so the net effect could be a wash. And where are you getting a 35% death rate for "
495.
by usaar333 7y ago
Depends where you are. The Bay Area is contact tracing every case and as a result is at a really low new case count (Santa Clara County is at 11 per million/day over the last week, significantly lower than successful country's pe
496.
by usaar333 7y ago
Matters where you are. The Bay Area is keeping their lockdown up so they can contact trace and crush any infection spike. Otherwise, we're going to be locked down until a vaccine at the current new case rates.
497.
by usaar333 7y ago
Counterpoint: Santa Clara county locked down 3 days earlier than Los Angeles, but a week later on the epidemic curve. LA right now has had nearly twice the death rate per capita, and unlike Santa Clara which is almost at the end of the cur
498.
by usaar333 7y ago
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4...
499.
by usaar333 7y ago
> New Zealand doing so much better than (for example) Iceland? They are only doing so much better if you define better solely in terms of deaths (about 14x per capita). The difference is that New Zealand locked down; Iceland had much mo
500.
by usaar333 7y ago
How off do you think this can be? Women go once a week to a medical facility (and that's to an ob-gen, not the emergency room) before birth, but also don't go out in general. You could just as well make the case this is lower tha
501.
by usaar333 7y ago
> Note that Italy, which has seen a high death rate, hasn't a strong drop-off at all, just gradual plateauing. Regional differences? Lombardy's death rate is less than half of peak
502.
by usaar333 7y ago
In high density areas or with a substantial older population, yes. Sweden didn't shut down and their health system isn't at the point of any of those locations. [They have a lot of people dying though - so that's not to say
503.
by usaar333 7y ago
Well, R0 is probably still about 2.4 in most cities in the United States (NYC, like Wuhan, considerably higher). Source suggesting this: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.12.20062943v... I think it h
504.
by usaar333 7y ago
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2009316 15.6% of pregnant woman at a given hospital were PCR confirmed over 2 weeks. I haven't seen strong arguments this wouldn't be broadly characterist
505.
by usaar333 7y ago
Most general population surveys have suffered from heavy self-selection bias or insufficient specitivity. In the early days, yes, the Bay Area was probably missing 90% of cases. Testing has ramped up though (it's pretty easy to get a
506.
by usaar333 7y ago
I wish they had some confidence intervals on here. The variance between Bay Area counties (or over time) is quite high - it's rather dubious that Alameda County was at 1.8% while SF was at 0% a week ago. Indeed, numbers > 1% for sym
507.
by usaar333 7y ago
The arguments the promoting organization is using against a smartphone app (e.g. Google and Apple's thing) are pretty dubious. That seems like the easiest way to do digital tracing by far.
508.
by usaar333 7y ago
R0 is environment dependent. It is probably in the 2-3 range for say California using hospitalization data.
509.
by usaar333 7y ago
There is no reason you can't keep a disease at a very low level (to the point any given person is unlikely to get the disease over their lifetime) via testing, contact tracing and quarantine. Iceland and South Korea both prove you can
510.
by usaar333 7y ago
case rate, not infection rate. They are one of the few nations in the world that are credibly even close to catching half their infections. The US is probably missing 90% ( https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2

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