3 ms·
> It's true that people are discharged from the hospital eventually (one way or another), so there's a little extra room from that, but not much. No, you need
by usaar333 7y ago
> It's true that people are discharged from the hospital eventually (one way or another), so there's a little extra room from that, but not much.
No, you need to account for that. We're at steady-state to decreasing hospitalization already (that is at r=1, increase = decrease).
- mattkrause 7y agoCalifornia is somewhere near steady-state (R=1) right now, but that's not a "stable" point, in the dynamical systems sense. A small decrease below R=1 would lead to falling rates, but a small increase above R=1 can make them skyrocket. I'm not sure if there's good data on the length of hospital stays, but an early preprint from China reported a median stay of 19 days. That's not much help here: On day 20, the intake is 60% larger than the initial cohort--and only half of them (b/c median) will be discharged. People with more data and expertise!) have worked up full SIR and utilization models, but the general point is that exponential growth is manageable, even boring, until suddenly it suddenly isn't.