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Is a 99.9% specitivity good enough though to conclude you had covid? Assuming you are in the US, your prior on having been infected in early February is well b
by usaar333 6y ago
Is a 99.9% specitivity good enough though to conclude you had covid?
Assuming you are in the US, your prior on having been infected in early February is well below 0.1% (not sure how much the covid-like symptoms would boost that). So conditionally speaking, it seems quite plausible this is a false positive.
- arcticbull 6y ago> Assuming you are in the US, your prior on having been infected in early February is well below 0.1% I think we won't know that for a while, yeah? That's part of what we could learn from these tests.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- ShinTakuya 6y agoThere's a lot of anecdotal evidence for people experiencing strange flu-like illnesses all around the world as early as January. It's possible GP was infected with the weaker strain that was said to have existed (although I'm not sure if that argument's been refuted by now, I remember it was controversial).
- iso947 6y ago“anecdotal evidence” That an oxymoron