svara

93 ms·

601.
by svara 7y ago
I didn't mean to imply that the number was necessarily wrong. I looked around for a reference but couldn't really find anything. The thing is, real time RT-PCR works by detecting specific viral sequences. If those are chosen prope
602.
by svara 7y ago
Yeah, I misremembered the growth rate in Italy. But check out the reference that I provided, most countries are in the high 20s / low 30s, many of them for multiple weeks. If there really was a 10% "true" growth, and higher g
603.
by svara 7y ago
Could you please cite a source for the false positive rate? Real time RT-PCR should be nowhere near that. Maybe if your sample handling is messed up, but that should be easy to optimize...
604.
by svara 7y ago
Could you expand on your observation regarding the true growth rate? I don't think that's accurate. Italy's outbreak is entering its fourth week, they have a very constant daily factor of ~1.33. Most countries are on the same
605.
by svara 7y ago
That's false, all recorded deaths do far were reported to have preexisting conditions.
606.
by svara 7y ago
Definitely insane, here's why: In order to get to herd immunity, you need something around 60% of the population to get infected and thus immunized [0] (there's a big assumption here already, that immunity lasts forever, might wel
607.
by svara 7y ago
> I'm sure engineering viruses is a difficult task, but we know that they were doing this sort of thing already via funded public projects. Yes, but what they did is different from (and much easier than) engineering a protein for a
608.
by svara 7y ago
The preprint you have quoted shows that the novel virus genome is very similar to a different Coronavirus (RaTG13) in some parts, and less similar in others. We have only a small sample of all the Coronavirus genomes that are out there in a
609.
by svara 7y ago
What you are saying is theoretically possible, but the sibling comment that's getting downvoted right now invoking Occam is, I think, spot on. Why hypothesize a detour through a biomedical lab if we know that people can get these disea
610.
by svara 7y ago
The title is shortened in a somewhat misleading way, making it sound at if this might be about a clinical study. The full title is: "Coronavirus Susceptibility to the Antiviral Remdesivir (GS-5734) Is Mediated by the Viral Polymerase a
611.
by svara 7y ago
The view you are suggesting works, in the sense that it is logically consistent. However, I very much doubt that this is the calculation that went through very many people's heads, say, 3 weeks ago. I think proof of this is that in all
612.
by svara 7y ago
You make a great point. Now how do we fix it? To your 15% chance of disaster example from your other comment: I think what you need is a population where a large fraction of people understand where those 15% come from. Edit: I also want to
613.
by svara 7y ago
It's also a great demonstration that it's really hard to get people to believe that something they can't see is real. Coronavirus cases have been growing stably and predictably for weeks. Epidemiologists (and not only they) s
614.
by svara 7y ago
Sorry, in my mind I was addressing mrb directly who surely knows the relevant data already. But you're right I should have included citations for other readers. The most detailed analysis of Chinese(!) CFR numbers I am aware of, includ
615.
by svara 7y ago
The problem with what you are doing is you are taking in a lot of information, and then you come here and to Twitter to repeat the most disturbing sounding factoids without any critical thinking and without any consideration for context, al
616.
by svara 7y ago
I'm well aware of the difference between IFR and CFR. CFR is nowhere in the range you quoted. Being consistent with incorrect studies is nothing to brag about. Re South Korea: You are presenting a hypothesis as fact. For lots of reason
617.
by svara 7y ago
The crucial thing is that the daily growth rate in South Korea averaged over the last 7 days is 1.05 and sinking, a far cry from the stable ~1.33 average in European countries with significant outbreaks. It's outrageous to me that you
618.
by svara 7y ago
For weeks I've been hoping to find a way to quickly compare log-plots of numbers infected (optionally normalized to population size) for different countries. IMO the best way to look at world-wide spread, but doesn't seem to be av
619.
by svara 7y ago
That's not true, case numbers in France and Germany are highly correlated. What you are saying would imply a substantial difference in growth rate between the two countries, which is easily disproved by looking at the data.
620.
by svara 7y ago
But you can compare this ratio between countries that have similar numbers of cases to get a hint at relative detection efficacy, assuming constant CFR.
621.
by svara 7y ago
That's not all there is to it, since the number of people infected grew at a similar pace in the early phase of an outbreak in different countries. For example, the number of people infected in France and Germany is rising in near perf
622.
by svara 7y ago
Something needs to explain the difference though between 939:0 in Germany and, e.g., 949:11 in France. Maybe the diagnoses in Germany are closer in time to infections? That would still point to a higher reporting rate in Germany vs. other
623.
by svara 7y ago
Exactly my point ;)
624.
by svara 7y ago
This model is nice in principle, but its results depend crucially on what is ultimately an educated guess of the reporting rate of symptomatic cases. This parameter can be found experimentally by testing for antibodies against the virus in
625.
Congress: Boeing Gambled with the Public's Safety(m.dw.com)
2 points by svara 7y ago|0 comments
626.
by svara 7y ago
You're right it can be impractical. For me I mostly solved it by 1) giving back the 1, 2 and 5 cent coins I receive as change and 2) withdrawing cash with my grocery purchases, which is possible in many stores.
627.
Paris in the Twentieth Century (Jules Verne)(en.wikipedia.org)
2 points by svara 7y ago|0 comments
628.
by svara 7y ago
A couple of days ago I posted a link to the BLASTN sequence alignment between the 2003 SARS virus and the Wuhan virus in a comment on one of the other discussions here. You can see they are closely related, at about 88% sequence identity. T
629.
by svara 7y ago
We can speculate all night, it remains speculation. All I've done is use the numbers you suggested to point out inconsistencies. Yet you keep finding reasons for why we are almost literally all going to die (with mortality rates of up
630.
by svara 7y ago
> It's not statistically inconsistent. When China had 100 cases confirmed, they had reported only 2 deaths. Now there are 100 cases outside China, so statistically we should expect 2. 0 actual vs 2 expected is statistically insignif

More ›