4 ms·

Something needs to explain the difference though between 939:0 in Germany and, e.g., 949:11 in France. Maybe the diagnoses in Germany are closer in time to infe

by svara 7y ago

Something needs to explain the difference though between 939:0 in Germany and, e.g., 949:11 in France. Maybe the diagnoses in Germany are closer in time to infections? That would still point to a higher reporting rate in Germany vs. other countries.

usrusr 7y ago
France has had a continuous epidemic since early on, but Germany successfully contained the first outbreak (thanks to one phone call from China at the right time), then it was all quiet for a while and only now Germany is catching up in case count, at a very high speed. This means that Frances, with a comparable total, has far more cases that are old enough to have already played out negatively.
- svara 7y ago
  That's not true, case numbers in France and Germany are highly correlated. What you are saying would imply a substantial difference in growth rate between the two countries, which is easily disproved by looking at the data.
- ernesth 7y ago
  Germany and France have had very parallel number of cases: see https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_19-covid-Confirmed.csv https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_... The first case in Germany was 3 days after the first in France. They reached 4 cases the same day. When France hit 11 cases, Germany already had 13 and for 15 days they both only got 1 to 3 more cases in total. They both began increasing a lot on the 26th of February.
  - usrusr 7y ago
    I haven't followed the French situation closely, are the late February cases in France clearly unrelated to early February cases or could they be the result of a phase of undetected spread?
  - mygo 7y ago
    You’re assuming that the reporting in Germany is the same as the reporting in France. While they reached 4 cases the same day, that doesn’t mean that they had the same number of unknown infections. Let’s say France had 10x as many unknown infections than Germany. How would that impact the disparity in death count? And is this even a large enough sample size for that disparity to not just be explained to a high degree by mere chance?

by svara 7y ago

usrusr 7y ago

France has had a continuous epidemic since early on, but Germany successfully contained the first outbreak (thanks to one phone call from China at the right time), then it was all quiet for a while and only now Germany is catching up in case count, at a very high speed. This means that Frances, with a comparable total, has far more cases that are old enough to have already played out negatively.

svara 7y ago
That's not true, case numbers in France and Germany are highly correlated. What you are saying would imply a substantial difference in growth rate between the two countries, which is easily disproved by looking at the data.
ernesth 7y ago
Germany and France have had very parallel number of cases: see https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_19-covid-Confirmed.csv https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_... The first case in Germany was 3 days after the first in France. They reached 4 cases the same day. When France hit 11 cases, Germany already had 13 and for 15 days they both only got 1 to 3 more cases in total. They both began increasing a lot on the 26th of February.
- usrusr 7y ago
  I haven't followed the French situation closely, are the late February cases in France clearly unrelated to early February cases or could they be the result of a phase of undetected spread?
- mygo 7y ago
  You’re assuming that the reporting in Germany is the same as the reporting in France. While they reached 4 cases the same day, that doesn’t mean that they had the same number of unknown infections. Let’s say France had 10x as many unknown infections than Germany. How would that impact the disparity in death count? And is this even a large enough sample size for that disparity to not just be explained to a high degree by mere chance?