You make a great point. Now how do we fix it? To your 15% chance of disaster example from your other comment: I think what you need is a population where a lar

You make a great point. Now how do we fix it? To your 15% chance of disaster example from your other comment: I think what you need is a population where a large fraction of people understand where those 15% come from. Edit: I also want to point out that I didn't find your examples that convincing. Bloodletting was a seriously long time ago, and is unlikely to affect anyone today. Iraq was a purely political issue, and didn't have a scientific angle.