4 ms·
The problem with what you are doing is you are taking in a lot of information, and then you come here and to Twitter to repeat the most disturbing sounding fact
by svara 7y ago
The problem with what you are doing is you are taking in a lot of information, and then you come here and to Twitter to repeat the most disturbing sounding factoids without any critical thinking and without any consideration for context, all for attention. This is really offensive to me, which is why I react so strongly to it.
Re CFR: If you are allowed to cherry pick a narrowly defined set of cases, you can make this value look any way you want. If that's the argument you are retreating to, you simply have nothing to say, because it is grossly misleading.
Re South Korea: numbers of people tested is on a stable exponential trajectory since the very beginning, unaffected by how many church members are tested. The exponential growth factor for the number of confirmed cases has been stably decaying since the very beginning. There is simply nothing to indicate that the artifact you suggest exists, yet you take a single sentence you found online to claim South Korean growth isn't actually slowing. What the fuck dude?
- ColanR 7y agoTo an outside reader, you haven't presented any research and are making unfounded claims. I don't see why you're in any sense credible.
- svara 7y agoSorry, in my mind I was addressing mrb directly who surely knows the relevant data already. But you're right I should have included citations for other readers. The most detailed analysis of Chinese(!) CFR numbers I am aware of, including discussions of all the issues that mrb likes to quote to sow confusion: Riou et al. [0] Cumulative number of tests performed in South Korea: See the table at [1]; ideally plot the "Total Tested" column logarithmically to see sustained exponential growth clearly. Confirmed cases in South Korea over time [2]. Plot South Korea alone to see the continuous decay (pretty much from day 1 to right now) of the exponential growth rate clearly. [0] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.04.20031104v1.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.04.20031104v... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_South_Korea https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_S... [2] https://studylib.net/coronavirus-growth https://studylib.net/coronavirus-growth