skmurphy

56 ms·

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by skmurphy 7y ago
A lot of practical advice and experience in this Feb 20 article on lessons learned (so far) from Singapore's experience: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761890
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by skmurphy 7y ago
Singapore has mounted an extremely effective response.
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by skmurphy 7y ago
Many cases--perhaps 80-95%--in folks under 50 are hard to distinguish from cold, flu, or gastroenteritis. 2.3% rate is for those who develop more serious symptoms. See http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e
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by skmurphy 7y ago
This 2015 article published in Lancet says 2/3 of Chinese men smoke and 3% of women. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... Here are two excerpts I am basing my summary on: Two-t
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by skmurphy 7y ago
key results: Results: A total of 72,314 patient records—44,672 (61.8%) confirmed cases, 16,186 (22.4%) suspected cases, 10,567 (14.6%) clinically diagnosed cases (Hubei Province only), and 889 asymptomatic cases (1.2%)—contributed data for
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Epidemiological Characteristics of Coronavirus (Covid-19) in China 2020(weekly.chinacdc.cn)
3 points by skmurphy 7y ago|1 comments
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Exploration into the Origins of the Wuhan Strain of Coronavirus (2019-NCoV)(harvardtothebighouse.com)
33 points by skmurphy 7y ago|21 comments
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by skmurphy 7y ago
This link continues to be updated, case count now at 67 as of Feb 15. There is a lot of detail on the cases and I think Singapore is the best proxy for how well US / Europe may be able to manage nCoV-219. This is the gold standard for
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by skmurphy 7y ago
From "Coronavirus outbreak 'just beginning' outside China, says expert" (Feb 12 2020) https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-singapore-in... The Chinese government’s senior medical adviser
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by skmurphy 7y ago
related also from Feb 10 https://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/ny-coronavirus-cases-... key points: The number of coronavirus cases aboard a quarantined cruise ship off the coast of Japan nearly doubled on Monday
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by skmurphy 7y ago
Key points: On Jan 23, the Ministry of Health reported the first case of coronavirus in Singapore. As of Feb 10, there have been a total of 45 cases, of which 23 are locally transmitted. The early patients were tourists from Wuhan. In the p
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Coronavirus in Singapore: 45 cases as of Feb-10, local cases exceed imported(straitstimes.com)
2 points by skmurphy 7y ago|2 comments
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by skmurphy 7y ago
Statistics I saw indicated that 2% of women smoke and 60% of men. This may account for a gender-linked differential between more serious outcomes for men, it could be a selection for smokers. I agree that the air pollution may push even no
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by skmurphy 7y ago
Good point. I hope that continues to be true.
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by skmurphy 7y ago
Many under 60 exhibit mild symptoms. Surveillance in Thailand and Malaysia may not be catching many of the infected.
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by skmurphy 7y ago
I agree, It's viral pneumonia for those over 60 and heavy smokers. China has 240M people who are 60 or older. Assuming a 2% mortality in that population and the fact that many of the younger infected have mild symptoms, 1/4 to 1&#
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by skmurphy 7y ago
It directly infects the lungs, it's essentially a viral pneumonia. It can kill by reducing lung function or enabling sepsis or other opportunistic infections that can enter through damaged lung tissue. For more information the most rec
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by skmurphy 7y ago
He takes an evidence-based approach that walks through basic medical concepts as well as recent peer reviewed publications on the novel coronavirus nCoV-19.
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John Campbell YouTube series has excellent explanatory videos on nCoV-19(youtube.com)
2 points by skmurphy 7y ago|1 comments
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by skmurphy 7y ago
Here are two excellent Youtube videos by a British doctor taking the time to explain published research https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z05ZrMfKUDc Feb 2 that covers forecast of actual case count based on https:/&#x2F
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by skmurphy 7y ago
key paragraph: "In this moment in history, the network of institutions that comprise the Democratic Party, from cable news channels to law firms to campaign operative networks to Silicon Valley lobbying outposts like Facebook and Goog
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by skmurphy 7y ago
Here is a link to recent SSRN papers on coronavirus https://www.ssrn.com/index.cfm/en/coronavirus/
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by skmurphy 7y ago
I think the current forecast is a reasonable first approximation for a three day forecast. The model you propose is more accurate but requires many more parameters, each with their own error bands. I think you are looking at a very complex
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by skmurphy 7y ago
Can you provide any links to sites that take current data and use better models to forecast? This site strikes me as a useful first step. But clearly there are better approaches, I have only seen predictions in papers, not in an equivalent
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by skmurphy 7y ago
Here is a graph of cases and deaths plotted either log or linear. https://coronaviruschart.com/
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by skmurphy 7y ago
Here is a MAP/GIS view "Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Global Cases (by Johns Hopkins CSSE)" https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...
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by skmurphy 7y ago
He turns 40 on February 5 (at least according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brad_Fitzpatrick ). I wonder if that was a factor in his decision. He could predict his path at Google and wants to chart his own course ag
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by skmurphy 7y ago
this link scans for most recent pre-print articles https://www.biorxiv.org/search/2019-nCoV%20numresults%3A10%2...
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by skmurphy 7y ago
It's a well researched page that gets dynamically updated with new info. One we may be watching for a few weeks if we are lucky, a few months if we are not.
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by skmurphy 7y ago
report appears to be as of jan-23, key findings: We are still in the early days of this outbreak and there is much uncertainty in both the scale of the outbreak, as well as key epidemiological information regarding transmission. However, th

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